1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

As I inferred recently, some more 'past supposedly bulletproof Techs' broke below their 200 DMA's and recent support, to which I say, hah....I have chronicled this in recent section (5)'s below each NL....of interest, I recall a very-nice-but-knows-nothing-of-investing retiree neighbor of mine, calling me out of nowhere a while ago, unsolicited (you should know that I never pitch shop talk with friends), bragging how their 'stock account at the bank' had risen a bunch in one month....to which I replied then, "please be careful from here, protect yourself, do some selling, these stocks are going to drop", to no avail, as you might imagine....anyway, on hindsight, "PSYCLE sm" sentiment-wise, that turned out to be a nice top signal, ay ? aren't you glad you know how to time these events better ? I am hoping I get more negative messages from more people here, as we bottom, around here, dig ? but,

a biggie: By noon-or-so, Wed./Thu. 30th, I observed enuf fear and turn-offed-ness, and put-volume, to indicate at least a V.S.T. bounce coming in our section (3) stocks....and, as I said, I see/saw potential 'fakeout breakdowns' suckering margin-called/scared-at-every-bottom people out, on minor breaks, as usual, dig ? Just as around the last few predicted-here S.T. lows, dig ? plus, the Media idiots were reporting declines on Wed./Thu., as if they were "huge major new lows with much bigger drops still coming", when, in fact, many are only declining back down to their recent lows, with a "W"-type pattern/bounce in between, dig ? so, perhaps this 'new NASD low' breakdown is the 'hook' around which an oversold S.T. bottom forms, as usual ? and, after the close Wed., the first Tech. analyst said, "gee, it seems the Techs may finally now be in a bear market".... get it ? so WE watch for tradeable lows, around here, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....so, you GOTTA being buying soem stuff, right ?

Meaning, if not already, then 'by the first couple of hours next Mon. or Tue. Dec. 5', one must have dipped toes into longside waters, or one does not understand "PSYCLES sm", nor has one learned the patterns, right ? with the 'baby out with the bathwater' action I saw Wed./Thu., even with all the excellent longside and putside predictions I have made for you for real, this is now officially probably my worst performance year in my 25+ year career....but, still way better than most others I have encountered....

I gave you 3 tops-and-drops periods in rolling Tech. I.G.'s (Internet, Biotech, Computer, Software, Tele., Commun.), as puttables, gave the Financials, Utils., Food/Bev., Aero./Def., Retail, and Trans./RR, all long right from their lows, had to cut QSL's when we had 2 rare breakdown periods in depr. Techs for very little damage, and gave back a little when wrong putting some Financials after big rises....I even caught Precious Metals 3 times for nice long Q trades, while others incorrectly continued to (mis)believe each bottom was the beginning of huge rises, yes ?

Meanwhile, let me remind you of the normal, decades-back 4-year-period "Presidential stock price movement cycle": with, generally, the best performance coming, NOT in the first 2 years after a new pres., but normally in the last 2 years or the 4-year period....but Seasonality now dictates normal, usual, tax-selling bounces coming soon in tons of EVB's....but not-so-good thereafter perhaps ? well, we never 'scenarioize' before viewing thigns as they unfold, so, regardless of (y)our performance in 2000, one MUST double-up soon/here to take advantage of my usual VVG performance, soon to come, longside, and NOT ruminate endlessly on (y)our mistakes past, dig ? be strong, psychologically and emotionally....and do not wait for some 'one, perfect moment', but leg in now, at least, with close stops....nice and relaxed, as usual....

and, finally, 11/30, our wonderful Govt. announced that "the U.S. economy abruptly slowed in the 3 rd Q"....'nuff said....you're welcome....you heard it here when our little recession began, a few months ago, herein, yes ? what did you do to protect your life financial assets then ? of course, as they do with every story in recent years, expect the Media to sensationalize and scare people into making a Recession and bear market more of a self-fulfilling thing, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....but YOU will be taking advantage from me, right ?

And, finally, Thu. 12:27, some guy who, of course, did NOT predict its fall already (the normal pattern, yes ?) is now calling for NASDAQ 2200-2300....well, big whoop....takes no brains at all to 'say' that - now - ay ? and, of course, his saying that confirms my 'near the lows' already idea, right ?

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) note expected weakness in Oils and Service stocks, which I was, as usual, among the very few/first to give out herein as Puts near tops, as 'the 95 %' became super-bullish, high/laate, as usual.... 2) but some of our Drug puts are trying to breakout....no damage.... 3) JUST in the one mo. of Nov., the Semis -27 %, Intenets -37 %, Telecom -34 %, indexes....in ONE month - which almost NO other major or minor or M.F. or analyst guy predicted, dig ? ....4) note upside breakout in the March T-bond contract, to 102 and 21 /32.... perhaps confirmed by unexpected-by-me strength in some Elec. Utils, no damage.... but I have been reporting to you lately, about how 'the 95 %' turned off on Bonds - right at their lows - and missed this rise, which I gave you herein from 98, 3 times now, yes ?

5) seeing many more potential double-bottoms among Techs, mid-Thu., dig ? why are those stocks in my section (3) not making major new lows ? get it ? ....6) as the Tobacco stocks make new highs, recall the first guy to give them as buys herein near all-time lows for you.... 7) last, guess my first-to-predict, on TV, that "2/3 of all Internet companies' stocks currently parabolic, will likely not even exist, 5-7- years from now" statement I made in 1999, looks pretty damn good now, ay ? where are the rewards/publicity ? the pattern NEVER changes ....NO one I.G. EVER escapes the full trip along its "PSYCLE sm", in time....are you learning ? ....8) in keeping with the section (1) comments above, are some Drug and Financial stocks having 'fakeout breakouts' ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) Wed., as usual only AFTER big unpredicted-by-him declines, CNBC's Bob Pisani, noon, sensationalized not-so-huge-drops, saying, "SUNW is getting clobbered, 76 dn 4, ITWO getting crushed, 88 dn 13"....then Art Cashin said, "some of the NASDAQ leaders of the last 10 years, may be losing their leadership role...." While also is useless and misleading, and late, since, as you have been taught NO one I.G. or sector EVER escapes the full "PSYCLE sm" rotation, over time....and many had already BEEN 'crushed/clobbered' until today, yes ? Cashin also said, "we may begin to see some tax-selling".....huh ? what the hell has he thought we have BEEN seeing for weks now already ? amazing.... and he is always lionized ? I wonder what HIS real, L.T. actual T.R. has been....nuff said....

2) Nov./Dec. mag. issue "Working Money", they ridiculously showed their ignorance, trying to supposedly 'teach' readers "how to spot tops and make $ on the downside", by saying "after prices plungs below double-top support llevels, this signals a strong downturn"....Which, as usual, is DUMB< since, as you have \been taught in my "Downside" booklet, 95 % only begin to get bearish, only AFTER "Plunges", and, therefore too late to take advantage properly, right ? They showed the NASDAQ index which already fallen from 5100 to 3700, before 'they' began to get bearish.....it did fall to 3100 eventually, but then recovered nicely, yes ? Plus - and this is huge - ALL 'financial planner' missives keep banging that one must REMAIN long, ALL the time, V.L.T. only, to glean the best of performance, yes ? In which case, as I have taught you for decades, 95 % of all people NEVER adjust much of ANYTHING ever, esp. in Funds, and, therefore, NEVER protect/hedge/buy puts anyway, right ? making their article moot, to their never-will-learn-or-change audience, yes ? So, stay with ME, and forget most all other sources of supposed education....you have had all you need, herein....

3) BW mag. 11/27, posits what MSFT should do with its $ 25. Bill. in cash., suggesting it belongs to its shareholders, etc., and GM's $ 11. B. in cash, ditto, for, S, AAPL, BOL, PACR, AMR, REI, DAL, F, NAV, similarly, with cash of at least 25 % of their recent stock/share price....note, all are 'old economy' stocks....hmmmm....gee, Jim, these have tons of money, but are detested, yet investors were willing to pay ridiculous stock prices for 'new econ.' stocks with little or no sales, eps, or cash....hmmmm....sound familiar ? anyway, buybakcs, as I have reported at length herein, are toe-jam....why cannot they find attractive investments in infrastructure, products, services ? ....4) BW mag. 11/20, article, "investment firms choke on rich salaries", where we are supposed to somehow cry for Wall St. emplyees expecting much lower pay/bonuses this year....boo hoo....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) Nov. issue of the Fed's Monetary Trends, front-page article,"Problem business loans rise at large Banks", points out a potentially emerging trend, since 'problem loans (over 90 days past due) as a % of total loans' had been falling nicely the previous decade, but has been rising the last 2 years anew....they mentioned that these problem loans have only been rising at Larger banks, not the smaller/regional ones, which proves my point again, that 'too big' is not as manageable/good....BW mag. of 11/20, says many Banks are 'hiding' the bad loans in denail, by "Remaning them" or other accounting shnanigans (don't get me started)....great system, ay ? how dishonest is that ? but , of course, why don;t the myriad of overpaid analysts sleeping at these banks make htis known when it can help millions of people ? re-read my Booklets.... 2) CNBC, Thu. 9:35, confirmed what I was first/only to predict, that "DVD" sales would NOT set the world on fire....recall how ALL the other analysts LOVED stocks like BBY, CC, etc., at their parabolic highs, when I gave them herein as Puts....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) Washington Post, 11/26, "Why Bail Out Of Bond Funds ?", said, "bond funds are on track to beat stock funds for the first time since 1992....but they have continued to have outflows....even when they lose money, investors keep pouring money into stock funds....over the past 5 years, the 6.904 stock funds have avg, + 13.3 % year, while the 3,773 bond funds + 8.9 % a year returns....as of 9/30/00, stock funds had $ 4.4 trillion, and bond funds had $ 800 mm in them....the world's largest bond fund, PIMCO, has seen INflows increase recently....the 30-yr. T-bond is up + 16 % in 2000 so far....but the best performing bond fund so far in 2000, is only up + 24 % through Sept." So what do you make of this, forward ?

2) in an as-usual nebullious article in 11/27 BW mag., MER's "tech. stk. guru" S. Milunovich, sees yuckiness continuing through Jan. '01 (which, as usual, BTW, he did NOT predict, mind you), but "likes, ADBE 72, CDN 23, CSCO 50+, DST 55-, EMC 79, NT 38+, PVTL 50, SANM 92+, SLR 35+, SUNW 85+, PALM @ 45, AETH @ 75, NTAP, VRTS, JDSU, make good choices here", and also even from the highs MER kept investors in from....oh, really ? look at them now....but I must say, he did also say that CPQ, MSFT, DELL, INTC, were not bottoms yet....next.... 3) in Nov.issue of "Working Money" mag., they super-pitched the Fund 'JAVLX', already way up from 33 to 83 from 1/98 to 6/00, saying, "if you are looking for superior performance...." hmmmm, recent price, 60....I rest my case....they ONLY report AFTER big rises, then we get the pullback, normal "PSYCLE sm" behavior, yes ? ....4) Fri., CNBC 8:25, Greg Troccoli, Pruidential, suggested poss. of, as I have intimated, a "bear trap", i.e., a fakeout breakdown, in the S & P....I agree.... kudos to him....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) it is interesting how the 'financial' greedy-thoughtless-uncaring bastards are 'blaming' recent declines on election stuff, wherein THOSE 'political' greedy-thoughtless-uncaring bastards have ruined whatever decency we had in that system, ay ? kinda like 'the pot calling the kettle black', as my Mother would say.... 2) and speaking of 'g-t-u-b's, according to recent L.A.T., evidently, many execs are being let go at Tech. co's., just before their potentially-fruitful-to-them stock options would have kicked in for them, triggering some interesting lawsuits by the ex-employees let go, which, I say, figures to increase in the future....see ? my philosophy about many things continues to be mostly quite proper, in the vast majority of instances....

3) more confirmation of my first-to-predict herein at top suggestion, in L.A.T. 11/29, "Taiwan looks for new economic model", says, "Tech. co's. are takking their mfg. elsewhere, resulting in hand-wringing in 3 rd lgst. country supplier of comp. equip.", get it ? I told you that Asia would NOT recover anywhere near as 'the experts' incorrectly predicted, didn't I ? and further, that only AFTER the fact, 'the 95 %' would 'blame' in hindsight, coming (now occured) big Tech. stock price drops, remember ? Boy, are we good, of what....

4) Wash. Post 11/26, "Mortgaging their future....study finds many families are spending their (rising) home equity", is exactly what I have been warning about -- and confirms my inkling that many yuppies will NOT be able to handle the declines in (mostly tech) stocks occuring again, and this time, we will NOT "automatically bounce back hugely to the upside, in stocks nor R.E.", as we have in the past....what are YOU doing to conserve/protect ? oh, yeah, I forgot, even MY followers hardly ever use close stops, nor have puts, right ? next....as I say, human nature (including spending and psychological needing patterns) NEVER changes....also, as I have been saying, unreported by the mass media (you know why), they say that "the avg. household's home quity, adjusted for inflation, is pretty much UNCHANGED from 1989 to 1999"....wow....of course, generalkkly, that includes a top in 1990, a big fall to 1994/95, then the recent years' rise in R.E. prices....the showed box titled, "solid foundation" to show that home equity as a % of assets has also remained the same the last decade....meaning, once again, behavior rarely changes, period....they closed by correctly warning that, "if any newly created wealth has already been borrowed and/or spent, it obviously won't be there when/if needed in old age."

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....