1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) note how many extended Techs/Semis have most recently popped, on LOWER daily volume....is this the tip-off ? still getting pops, VERY unusual....when will it all end ? am just flabbergasted at Thu. Semi. bounces....got me.... 2) added more Steels, as some may have bottomed....note, pretty-much NO one likes them down here.... 3) L.A. Times, 11/30, front-page, "Bond yields climb on I.R. jitters", late, as usual right ? the pattern never changes.... showed chart since 1997, illustrating what I see as a potential double-top in yields ahead, as I suggested to you in earlier NL's....to around 6.35 % ? we shall see....I have no further I.R. predictions here....I gave you the I.R. low, around 4 % in 1998, and Puts on Util. stocks, and kept you out of Bonds before their recent decline, and that was more than enough for you to have taken advantage of.... 4) I still see rolling tops forming in many Oil Service stocks.... 5) last, looks like I am wrong on the Golds, this time around ? if so, would be rare....some may be breaking, others just pulling back to lows again....watch the individual charts....remember, it is just another I.G., nothing special, in a properly diversified portfolio....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from
the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) L.A. Times, 12/28, "Philadelphia not fully Y2K ready....500 people get notices for them to show up for jury duty --- in 1900." said, "yes, after all the work that was done to avoid this...." But closer look found that they were getting second notices, and thousands of other normal notices went out just fine....not to panic....as I said, likely a "10 %" problem.... 2) CNBC's Bob Pisani, Wed., 7:30 am, said, "GE's stock has had a terrible time lately...." Excuse me ? has he SEEN its chart ? if anything, its' strength has been amazing, just the opposite of what he said/inferred/misled.... talk about lack of perspective....re-read my "Mastering Psychology" booklet, where I discuss how too many people now have too much money and tunnel-vision regarding the stock of the company they work for....then, he also said, "look at "COL" stock, a new recovery high....who would have thought that....it was a company in so much trouble." Gee, as you know, I did, when I gave it to you herein, in its base bottom, back then....
3) L.A. TImes, 11/30, headline, "an unexpected present for retail stocks" .....late -- as usual -- right ? Mentioned how, as I was first/only to have given at recent lows, many Retail stocks have bounced....recent rises, certainly NOT "unexpected" by us, ay ? ....4) L.A. Times, 11/30, headline, "IPO fund rides the wave", wasted our time and space, by highliting a small, new, "IPO Plus Aftermarket Mutual Fund", which loves "COVD" over $ 60. (see its potential triple-top ?), and "SCMR" (see its potential hook top ?)....I hope this guy has some protection....another sign of impending tops among Internets, and the IPO market itself ? ....5) Thu., 9:55 am, CNBC's Bill Griffeth, asked a 'bond expert' guest, "people are beginning to wonder if the long bull market in Bonds of recent years, might be over ?"....Gee, Bill, rates are ALREADY up from 4 % to 6. 3 % since last year....duh....the pattern never changes....See ? the Media doesn't even pose the question they should have asked a year ago, at much lower rates, until the trend has Already been in force, for a YEAR, and it is too late to take advantage, dig ? a huge lesson, which neither "the 95 %", nor pros within the industry, have learned....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from
Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) L.A. Times, 11/30, "Market for commercial/industrial office space tightens....pricing is at an all-time high....shortage of warehouse space....", connects with the some of the still-depressed REIT stocks I have given you in section (6) below.... 2) L.A. TImes, 11/30, "Calif. Home prices, sales, top U.S. rate", in Oct., showing an impending top, with L.A. home prices now up only + 2.5 % over last Oct. levels (but Orange County up + 7.1 %, Riverside/S.Bern. + 5.6 %, Ventura + 14.4 %, from last year)....While pointing out, as I was the first/only to have suggested herein, that, Nationally, home sales FELL, -3 % from their Oct. '98 level, and that Nationally, avg. prices were now up Only + 3.9 % over its Oct. '98 level.... remember, tops form over months, and can have bumps within the rolling tops....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) a big B-firm analyst, Mr. Grubman (did not getthe firm), just added ATT ("T") as a 'super buy' here, over $ 60....hmmmm, where was he in its recent H & S bottom ? negative on it, dig ? Plus, this is not the kind of stock that can make big % moves, so one must get closer to the price bottoms, or just not worth it, yes ? Gee, did he not even mention chart nor technicals, yet he gets (over)paid --- for what ? ....2) did you hear, CNBC< Tues., 8:50 am, a big B-firm raised their 12-mo. price target from $ 50. to $ 60., -- but then downgraded 'AMGN' from a 'buy' to 'accumulate'....huh ? what kind of advice is that ? ....3) in a rare, possibly corect appearance on CNBC, Tues., 12:55 am, J. Bollinger showed a 'calls/puts ratio' chart going back 5 years, and --- you guessed it -- over 200 % calls, vs. puts volume, lately....a VERY high reading, historically....actually, near an all-time high....so, watch out, long-siders in extended stocks, ay ? ....4) the two-no-name-fundamentalists who shockingly get huge space in the L.A. Times, for weekly stock picks (how were THEY chosen ? but I digress), 11/30, love "UPS" stock way up here at $ 70-, and hate "TOY", which I gave you herein at lows, and already "took" a big % Gain in.... semi-perfect "PSYCLE sm" behavior, yes ?
e) more general items proving why one must ignore 95 % of everything else out
there: 1) in a recent study, L.A. Times front-page, 11/28, over 2/3 of the people polled by the S.I.A. and the I.C.I., titled, "What investors want from Brokers", listed "how to become a more knowledgeable investor in general", and, "retirement planning", and, "how to pick good stocks", ranked 1-2-3, chosen by over 60 % each...."Online Trading" was chosen by only 29 %....Last, only 18 % said they trade online, and 69 % said, they were "not very likely to do so", or "definitely will not" do so....how do you read these numbers ? I see this as similar to my prediction about 'how many people will own/use computers', that is, even with all the growth, a VERY small % of people, even in the USA, own computers....sure, tons of market potential remains, but TONS of people are still unwilling to buy, or unable to afford, or afraid of, computers....and may always be....making the parablic rise among Techs/Comp. stocks even more tenuous and unsustainable soon ? .... 2) CNBC, Thu., 8 am, reports that many "Y2K" events are actually being CANCELLED due to "lack of interest"....hmmmm....they said at least part of the reason might be due to overpricing and greed from promoters.....gee, d'ya think ?
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the best
individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. calls TOY (14 to 19-) for Q 125% Gain....bal. puts EXTR (102+ to 65) for VQ 125% G....puts FCX (18+ to 15+) for 66% G....1/2 pos. puts DRC (56+ to 48+) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. puts ESV (25+ to 20) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. stock VBAC (1 1/4 to 2 1/4) for 75% G....1/2 pos. calls BKS (20+ to 25+) for Q 85% G....puts POWI. (55 to 43) for Q 111% G....1/2 pos. stock RPD (2 1/2 to 3 3/4) for VVVQ 44% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. HEB (6+ to 9+) for 85% G....bal. puts IBIS (47+ to 40+) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. FIX (7+ to 9+) for Q 50% G....puts POG (9 to 7+) for Q 50% G....
and/but, longs, FMO, CDE, NSC ?, and, puts, bal. CRDS (94 to 71 to 96), UVN ?, RBAK, ARA, CLRS, EGLS, MXIM ?, SEIC ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....most all are "Semis/Compu." stocks....but still been too many of them lately....rare....I also wish I could be more clear about these '?' questionable sales lately....it just happens that way at times....again, "cutting for real small losses" when necessary, never hurts much....in fact, they can help your 'psyche' over time, by keeping larger losses away, yes ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(note more new ones) 1/2 pos. ADM @ 12 3/16, 1/2 pos. BEV @ 4-, 1/2 pos. BS @ 6 1/8, 1/2 pos. DCN @ 27+, EC @ 17-, GPC @ 25+, LPX @ 11++, RPD @ 2 1/2, 1/2 pos. SCIO @ 3 3/4, 1/2 pos. SRR @ 6 1/8, SRV @ 7+, UST @ 26 1/8,
note, how relatively mundane but serviceable, these new ones, and 'repeats', are....
"Repeats": ARJ @ 15 1/8, ASI. @ 6 7/16, CTHR @ 7++, DAY @ 1/16, DDS @ 18+, ESOL @ 3/4, GLB @ 12, GV @ 5/16, HEC @ 7/8, HSY @ 48++, HZP @ 3-, LDW @ 6+, LWN @ 7/16, MSN @ 9/16, MWHS @ 12-, NA @ 33+, NHI. @ 15+, NHR @ 8, PMC @ 8, RDL @ 2 7/8, SCY @ 4, SDH @ 15, SQM @ 28+, TGI. @ 23+, TVX @ 13/16, VL @ 7.06, WLV @ 14+, WRE @ 15+, ZMAX @ 2 1/8...."buy (only) low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, USV, WHC, BUR, AXC, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
HOW DIFFICULT CAN IT BE to take just 5-10 minutes TO VIEW the CHARTS OF
"new longs/puts" here ?
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) BVSN @ 113, FON @ 73, NBR @ 28+, RSYS @ 45, TFSM @ 55, TQNT @ 91+, WAG @ 30-, WMT @ 59-,
"Repeats": ANAD @ 49, CAKE @ 31, CMC @ 33+, CXY @ 20-, CYBS @ 66+, DCR @ 79+, DS @ 60+, IDPH @ 139, MCLD @ 46-, MND/A @ 24+, NSOL @ 159+, NYF @ 29+, PMCS @ 113, QCOM @ 390, SEIC @ 103, SYMC @ 48, "the S & P index" @ 142-....
and/but, took, NSM, TNI., ACTU, TUES, VSAT, VITR, BOBJ, ITWO, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list ....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", SGI., ABF, FLS, WS, HOV, IM, CTC, BL, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, BRCD, BWAY, GETY, LU, CNXT, SILI, TIBX, DISH, ASDV, XLNX, CDB, AMAT, BRCM, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit "missing" some, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
RPD 3 7/8 up 1 5/8, ORG 12 up 3 7/8 (sos), BDE 3 7/8 up 9/16 (soso), HWS 2 11/16 up 5/16, TXB 4 3/4 up 7/8, TBP 7 3/4 up 1 1/4, LPX 13 1/2 up 1 7/8, RDL 3 1/4 up 3/8, BBC 9 1/8 up 1 3/8, VL 7 3/4 up 3/4, ARJ 17 up 2, SKS 19 up 2, BS 6 5/8 up 5/8, NHR 8 5/8 up 3/4, PDQ 8 7/8 up 5/8, SVRN 9 1/8 up 7/8, GLB 13 1/8 up 1 1/8, ADM 12 3/4 up 7/8, TMO 15 5/8 up 1 1/8 (soso), NA 35 1/2 up 2 3/8, BKS 25 3/8 up 1 1/8, DDS 19 1/4 up 3/4, DCN 28 1/4 up 1 1/4, UST 27 up 1, VBAC 2 3/8, WLV 15 3/8, HEB 9 3/8 (sos), BCP 8 3/4, HWS 2 3/4, ALB 19 3/8, TOC 10 1/8, BD 8 1/8, ESOL 7/8, higher, since last time here....while, TMO, BDE, approach their 200 DMA....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: JBOH 9 1/4 up 1 1/4, HRC 5 7/8 up 5/8, UNA 14 1/4 up 1 1/8, SDH 16 1/8 up 1 1/4, USL 7 1/2 up 5/8, LRW 13 1/4 up 7/8, VVUS 2 1/8, IRSN 1 3/4, 2 1/8, MAT 13 5/8, CPU, SYNX 2 5/8, FDP 8, CHB 8 1/2, 9 3/8, PWN 8 1/2, 9 1/4, MUEI. 11 5/8 up 1, TCA 7-, BKS 23 1/2, BD, CTHR 7 5/8, PB, TOY 16 5/8, VBAC, SVRN 8 1/2, AIN 15 7/8, ALB 18 3/8, ABX, HM, TSN, FIX 7 3/8, FOE, HSY, MSM, DDS 18 1/4, SEV 2 3/8, CCC, HCP, ALU, PZB, MWHS 11 3/4, BAMM, NSC, RBK, BBC, INFM, SQM, DHR 49-, HOT, CSGI., VXTK, ZMAX, SDH, IMH, AIN, SSC, PMC, LDW, HOC, TPS, MSN....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) ABX, HM, HZP, SSC, PWN, LDW, HOC, STE, NSC, IMH, ASI., TPS, SCY, NHR, TCA, DAY, CCR, SQM, NHP, FOE, SDH, TPS, HIV, MSN....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
some nice drops for you; BVSN -22, NSOL -20, IDPH -12, PMCS +2, -10, TFSM -8, CYBS -8 1/2, HLIT -8 1/2, HBCCA -9, ADVS -6 1/2, AOL -8, SMTC -4 1/2, ANTC -6 1/4, TQNT -5 1/2, FON -5, ANAD -3 1/2, MCLD -3, NYF +1/2, -2 3/4, +2, -1 1/4, SYMC -4, BMY -3,
more: WAG -2 1/4, WMT -2, PAYX -1 1/2, NBR -1 1/2, AZN -1 1/2, LSCC -1, POWI. (S), MND/A -1 1/4, ESV (sow), DS -1, TGNT -1, ESS, CMC, RCNC +1, -2 1/2, lower since last NL....also, see, FCX, DRC, CHA, AEIS, fell to their 200 DMA....and, ADVS, approached its 200 DMA (sow)....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
saw many bounces, Tue./Wed./Thu. As I said, while seeing too many bounces, but we are certainly more than hanging in there on the Put side, so please do not ignore Puts, see above....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (VVUS, TXB, TCA, NHP, IMG, HZP, HRC)
Prec.Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, DAY, KRY, HM, longer-term, on pullbacks
only)
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely,
again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
emerging groups ?: "Waste", "Athletics/Shoes", "Housing-related", and, Foods ?, and, as previously mentioned, some 'Funeral' stocks down the road ?
and, maybe, some depressed Y2K's: in no particular order, near lows only, with close stops only, these are more risky: (IAIC, TSIM, SAA, MVSI, INFM, ZMAX, CSGI, ENCC, MAST, VXTR, PHXU), some up already ?
and, on pullbacks, these REIT's, most also with real big potential Dividends ? (NHR, AMB, GLB, NHI., NNN, DDR, FCH, LTC, PDQ, WRE, CEI., GTA, ARI., etc., there are even more of these, if you do some more research)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, add, UST, EC, BDX, AMB, NHR, to, VVUS, SVRN, AAS, STS, FDP, DHR, HUM, NVX, DROOY, WDC, NHI., TVX, ARJ, FOE, HL, LUB, HMT, MSM, USV, LWN, BYS, CTC, CPU, HSY, AIN, PB, MHX, LMM, VL, WLV, BD, MAT, SKS, JOB, PIR, BWL/A, TCA, PMC, SYNX, FC, HIV, MSN, SAMC, XCL, to,
also, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh....add, JBM, VCR, HOV, BS, OO, OCN, TWR, WHC, WAB, GLG, MAH, ONE, ADM, IM, GPT, to, AIR, BTR, BUR, DCN, JWN, PRD, SRV, TSP, WMI., MHX, JPR, HEC, HWS, TPN, TOK, MPO, DIS, MKC, TO, CMX, PZB, GHV, TRL, SQM, BEV, XRX, MZ, TVX, MUEI, R., UNA, BXM, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual.... some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows.... and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
The last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
obviously, many of these are now down a bit, so be sure to VIEW charts before
entering....
* add, ARTG, RSYS, ANAD, TQNT, SILI, LSCC, SMTC, CNXT, DS, BWAY, TIBX, BVSN, CYBS, DISH, FON, WMT, MGG, AIG, MTG, PHTN, TFSM, XLNX, to, ALLR, JPM, AXP, ILN, WON, OAT, KMG, DRC, NYF, AEIS, AMCC, SYMC, PERC, TGNT, IDPH, MSTR, HLIT, EDS, CDB, NYT, BRCD, CRDS, PMCS, QCOM, SAWS, EPNY, NTPA, CTS, CA, ZIGO, TMC, GPSI., HBCCA, BJ, CLFY, DRTE, CTS, CTV, IPI, HOMS, INKT, PESC, VSEA, ANTC, CLRN, WLM, MSFT, DOX, TLAB, AHAA, DST, ECP, CDI, CLS, VISX, VTSS, FDS, PEB, SNPS, ACS, KWP, ADVP, AWRE, from recent past NL's,
'extra' list: were/are these stage 4 tops right here ? ! are they done
rising ? ! : ADBE, ADIC, ANCR, AKAM, PHCM, ZOLL, SILK, PAYX, ASKJ, FON, VERT, CMRC, DTPI, etc.,
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: add, Publishing ?, to, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech,
Computer/Internet/Software, Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, Media, Energy,
and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above
their patterns....of course, many issues are already down now, so fewer "still
near their highs", right ?
NEW: a valuable story, involving "AIMM" stock, please view its 3-year-past chart, and see: first, its nice tight depressed base, into which I added it around $ 2, herein, last year....easy to have seen/done....then, it doubled on huge volume to $ 4., on "news', etc., where NL took normal, 1/2 pos. Gains....but then, really rare, it got destryoed on news, falling to $ 1/2 or so, gap....of course, while one might have gotten emotionally upset, one DID already get one's money out at $ 4., right ?
Anyway, instead of panicking, and selling at the bottom, on 'terrible news', we hang/hung in, right ? And, as you have been taught, eventually, AIMM formed a second/lower base, always another buy opportunity, yes ? So, we recently re-added it as a long buy in section (3) above, at $ 1/2 or so....And, seemingly from out of nowhere, it triples in one day, on huge volume again (people in at $ 2., getting out in 'relief', dig ?), allowing us to a) cut loss from original purchase, and, b) make a ton of money on the second intelligent purchase....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....