1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

a ...

as I have been reporting herein, supposedly, in Oct., Insiders Sold $ 60. of their stocks for every $ 1. insiders bt., wow....and, 10/17/03 Barrons main headline said, "high hopes....portfolio mgrs. bullish" (etc.), get it ? also, on a l.t. basis only, noting how major indexes are, as i predicted last Fall, approaching 'downward crossing moving averages', resistance, since the year 2000 tops, get it ?

but we had some more EVB's among pyttables, overbalanced by more rises among longsiders, as usual....and, still, some puttable Gainers as well, hmmmm.... meanwhile, ever-bear-Erlanger re-ran McCLellan's "Nikkei overlay comparison, nikkei 1993 to SPX 2003, oy....they call things 'highly similar' between them then, and us now....I disagree, of course, for numerous logical reasons not worth listing here....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) i am right vst again on Gold, as it fell further to under 390, so far....when/if under 386, watch out, you ever-bulls-near-400....but, so far, broke out anew, Tue., to 404....got me....remember, recent-years high was over 416.... 2) the Bank of Japan has evidently recently been buying US dollars at $ 1. B. a day for 9 days now !, while reporting 'vastly lower reserves remaining', and, "their first loss in decades, down from profit of $ 500 mm yen in 2002, to a loss of $ -110 mm yen in 2003"....and the US $ made new low at 89.58 (and the Euro rose to over 120., unpredicted by me, and the British Pound made a 5-yr. high vs. dollar, at 1.72, ditto) - but seeing a l.t. chart again, I still say is way closer to bottom than a bigger-loss-coming, dig ? ....3) and/but finally, as usual, only after missing caloling its previous l.t. drop in perfect "PSYCLE sm" behavior, TIME recent story on "the dragging dollar" may signal the beginning of the end of the dollar's decline, dig ?, you learning the patterns ?, if not why not ?

4) and again, now, way up here, Jim (dgms) Rogers heralds China as THE place to invest now, saying, "i wouldn't put a nickel in India" - so you know what to do....another China analyst saiud, "India is relatively 'free', but China remains Communist....everyone wants to put $ into China....but how do they get it out ? even the Taiwanese are worried about that".... 5) meanwhile, the XAU made a 6-yr. high, unpredicted by me this time, ....6) cash Crude Oil, as expected has pb from 33- to 29+ already....may go a bit lower, but I still favor the basing O.S. stocks below.... 7) and, as expected the TNX yield back up to 4.445 %, 10-yr. bond....price down from 112 to 109 already....

7) Navallier in Oct., listed many specific 'sell now' stocks, as 'overvalued', in his recent UNsolicited-by-me mass mailing....same list he put out at lower prices on all, dig ? anyway, on his sell-now list, are, T, SUNW, BRCD, DUK, EP, CE, LU, MOT, SEBL, THC, TLAB, PCS, Q, NT, SBC, all on my bopb list, herein, near their lows, yes ? who would YOU bet on ? 'nuff said....but to his pot. credit, he does list, as sales, DAL, HON, KRB, MIK, TECD, VOD, CMCSK, USAI, DD, HAL, JPM, also were on my pot. puttables list.... 8) anti-kudos yet again to recent WSJ< which only showed chart of "cotton futures' after a big 'unpredicted by anyone in the WSJ or the commodity ind. in the WSJ' price rise, as usual, get it ?, they will never learn....nor will they ever get my "PSYCLE sm", oy....

9) oh, and, as usual, kudos tyto me for now, being the first and certainly only to have given out the depressed Oil Svc. stks. herein 4U, you're welcome, as they seeem to be breaking out, Thu., neat, huh ? ....10) and was I again the first/only to have given out some Extended Retial/Clothing stocks puttable herein ?, hopefully, you're welcome, as usual....and, might the SOX/semis/chip stocks finally be at-least s.t. topping ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Govt., etc.:
1) amazing huge waste-of-space article in recent LAT on WMT's success, supposedly 'hurting america/people' - yet, w/o WMT, would not many prices be higher for consumers, as with grocery-strike' ?, dgms....i see it properly, as usual, while 'the 95 %' have it wrong.... 2) TDR China bulls cont. to be bearish as they also cite 'bubble' crap, makes no sense....they are expecting a bust there, yet say 'it is the best opp. in the world still", get it ? anyway, they cite China crashes in 1992 and 1994, but "only for non-US-residents because the US dollar was so strong at that time....but this time, US investors will get slammed because our dollar will be weak, and China's Yuan will rise"....well, we shall see....they also cite a mregulatory mess in China, with unmanageable finance alternatives, a fragmented banking system, and still many state-owned-enterprises to be 'let go' ahead....last, keep in mind, China only partly opened for foreign trade in 1978, and created their first 'equities' in 1990, not that long ago....

3) Barron's recent cover was its 4th bullish one in the last 6 months, showing a perplexed bear falling down a slope....the previous times were: early May, after indexes had already risen 50 % of its current-total-rise, off its March bottom, 2 covers in June, after indexes ahad already rallied about 80 % of its total gain to date, and, recent one (as usual, only after many stocks have already possibly s.t. topped) get it ?, learning the patterns ? re-read my booklets.... 4) and, 11/17/03 Barron's article, which tries to parallel Nixon's juicing of the econ. in 1973/1974 ahead of the huge top-and-drops after late 1974, make for interesting reading....

5) a beautiful "PSYCLE sm" contrary tome in recent Vanguard MF statement to me, about a math prof. who learns a valuable lesson, while he lost tons of money from the early Y2K drops off parabolic stock chart formations which any mathmetician should have easily recognized....dgms....he put way too much of his % into WCOM (dgms, no diverisifcation, no stop-loss, no technical pattern analysis, need I go on ?), buying more all the way down from top, and added, how emotionally-attached he bacme to WCOM....in other words, but only from me now here, and not mentioned by Vanguard (dgms on them or the ignorance of MF people either), perfect incorrect non-PSYCLE behavior, get it ? am I good ro what, and are 'the 05 %' lousy, or what....this example is nothing new to us, ay ?

6) a beautiful front-page article recent LAT, about how, "the Patriot Act author has concerns, bill is flawed he now says"....dgms....hey, YOUR govt. at work....not....yet again.... 7) more me-and-my-Psycle-correct, and 'the 95 %' and Media is wrong again, as, recent headline, "hush, no rush to change cell-phone servers at stores"....get it ?, they overpuffed, and are wrong yet again....few people are changing much of anything so far, dig ?, in normal human behavior.... re-read my booklets.... 8) recent article OCR titled, "Mexico panicky over flood of China goods into Mexico", again, exactly as I teach to watch for....and ZI laugh, as Mexico has been trying to take & take, and in their ignorance and unthinking, missed China's lower-cost goods, just as the USA did, ay ? meanwhile, the Mexican Peso made a new LOWalso, a.t. low, around 11.38 per US dollar....making Mexican goods even cheaper to us, ay ? tough toenails to them....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) and, just for the record, as I have taught for decades, TARIFFS are BS, the vast majority of the time....your politicians and the prez are imbeciles most of the time on such econ. items, as I have proven countless times, and they are wrong again trying to artificially priotect the textile and steel inds. and China, here, dgms....what a shame, when better solutions are easily avail.....2) and a rare correct assessment of the new BS-in-our-opinions "medicare bill' your idiot congress just passed (dgms), gary D. Halbert pointed out that the cost to develop a new major drug has risen from about $ 237 mm in 1991, to well over $ 800 mm now....if just adjusted for inflation, the current cost would only have risen to about $ 313 mm, get it ? screw the big drug cartel companies, I have always asaid - except, thru whom else woul dwe have gotten, and may still get, many helps and cures ???

3) while only 22 % of drugs get approved by the FDA at that level, drug approvals HAVE been coming faster thru the FDA, hmmmm....of interest, contrary (as usual) to what we all read in the misleading press, recent big studies found that, 'surpriisingly', 80-85 % of seniors are satisfied with their prescription drug coverage !, hmmmm....if so, then why all the fuss ? BS-politics as usual, dig ?, thsis bill was too-rushed thru, and, seniors DO represent 20 % of all voters, 'nuff said....except- watch for additional problem, ever-higher costs, and more govt. bueurocratic BS, ay ?, nice going folks....not....many Dems opposed this bill JUST BECAUSE THEY DONT WANT REPUBLICANS TO GET CREDIT AND MAYBE WIN MORE ELECTION SEATS NEXT YEAR....and you wonder why my opinions about all things polistical have been as they have been for decades, ay ?

4) according to the Fed's recent report, Americans now have about $ 2 T. just in c.c. debt....according to TDR (dgms) 'americans spend roughly $ 7.6 T/yr. on goods & svcs., while the US govt. spends about $ 2.1 T/yr....and businesses spend $ 1.2 T/yr." making 'consumers' way more imp. to the econ. than the other 2 elements ? ....5) TDR says the fastest growing sector of bankruptcy in the USA are people over age 65, and 2nd fastest growing are between age 55 and 65....stupidlky adding, "these are not teenagers who don't know any better" - I say, oh, yeah ?, those ARE the '2nd luckiest generation ever ' by my teachings/historical findgings.... and, are the very people who did NOT predict either, the rise, nor fall, of tons of investments, the last twenty years, ay ? what do you think about this ?

6) and speaking of BK, recent little buried article LAT, said, "house/congress passed law just now, that extends for another year, over 4 7 B. in tax breaks to Airlines, in pension fund relief." amazing, huh....where are the authorities ? just more 'screw the taxpayer', ay ? ....70 and recent big LAT article, showed, as again I predicted years ago when I turned AGAINST most all growth M.F.'s recall, how thos supposed-helpful 12b-1 fees, vs. upfront fees, are now, after bring in force about 20 years now, are actually making fees to funds HIGHER, not lower, and costing investors MORE, not less....dgms....the pattern rarely changes, as 'changes' rarely help, ay ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) interestingly, MER's chief strategist, R. Bernstein, is continuing to be chastised for being bearish all year 2003, and remains so....MER is close to firing him - what MER usually does before - you guessed it - stocks DROPS, get it ?, and, oh, btw, as I have chronicled at times herein, MER has a terrible historical pattern of firing bullish guys at bottoms, a nd bearish guys at tops, GET IT ?, 'nuff said....learn my "PSYCLE sm".... 2) non-kudos to B.S., for, as usual, only now liking A, CAKE, CMVT, after big unpredicted-by-him, but predicted-by-me-herein big rises from lows, ay ?

3) and mr-ever-bear TDR, says, "foreign central banks continue to rush to buy US dollars, even as its price continues to make new lows"....uh, kinda proves MY point, about 'the way things are", AND, in a way, his bearish-at-least-on-the-dollar-so-far point.... 4) and still-bearish all-the-way-up-for-months-now Navallier, puts out yet another "urgent warning sell signal" - oy....and/but then, as usual, also follows with, "dont get me wrong....we're still buying some stocks"....uh, huh....

5) and another beautiful LAT recent article, "Schwab system turns F's into A's", chronicles how, exactly as only I predicted, as all such 'rating systems' turn out to be flawed big-time in my historical materials and teachings, found, since its inception 5/02, ALL 6 categories of stocks they recommended DECLINED (yet 'the indexes' ROSE big-time after Fall's lows, yes ?), and, worse for them (well, duh), their F-rated (lowest rated) stocks did the BEST....and their A-ranked stocks did the worst !, dgms....you know this was gonna be the case, ay ? 'nuff said....again.... 6) 10/31/03 WSJ headline, "Fund Mgrs. remain Bullish on Asia stocks" - again, only now, after huge unpredicted-by-them price rises, ay ?, the pattern rarely changes yet again....more PSYCLE proof....the article included many FLW's, like, "Asia is in the sweet spot....low risk....their situation insultaes Asia from future problems....obvious political agents helping Asia.... low I.R.'s bullish on them"....etc. so, now, you know what is likely to occur, yes ?

e) more general, political, misreported items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) and shame again on the AARP, for sponsoring the BS and terrible and confusing and NOT helpful-to-the-elderly, but more-helpful-to-drug-companies Medicare Bill....dgms...business as usual in your govt., and big business and special interests, ay ?....huge gaps in coverage, and won't help a sole, esp. low-income people....amazing.... 2) oh, and yet again, I found a massive misleading arithmetic error made by 'the 95%' recently....your Gov. Arnold S. kept Incorrectly saying, and so did 100 % of the Media, politicians, etc., that the 'car tax inbcrease' was +300 %, when, in fact it was a triple, or only +200 %, get it ?, need I say more ?, I am right, but still have no deserved venue, and they are wrong, and people just blidnly and ignorantly follow 'them'....

3) more proof I am right about grocery strike here, as recfent LAT article cites, "grocery picket lines take a toll on gifts to charities like Salvation Army"....becvause fewer shoppers are going to those 3 stores chains, S.A. getting fewer donations, dig ?, hah....I wonder how many picketers are donating to S.A. - and how many scabs and grocery current workers....
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So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....