1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Well, we did it again for you....been buying our stuff near lows ? if not, why not ? anyway, "after the first hour or two Mon., after a down period" worked well, again, yes ? and another S.T. bottom sign, were the 750-850 new lows last Thu./Wed., and the 2.7 billion shs. volume that day, as at least moderately cathartic....and, salomon/Smith barney's head technician saying, "people have stopped looking for a bottom and are just looking for an exit", as good a "PSYCLE sm" contrary buy signal as one gets, ay ? So, you bought some stuff last Fri., and Mon. yesterday, right ? if not, why not ? and the 2525 intraday NASDAQ index low, down almost exactly -50 % off predicted high, was/is 'enuf for now', as I teach in my Downside Booklet....

November's NASDAQ drop was 2nd worst ever, so if you are quitting or did quit, or had gotten depressed, ot truned-off, get over it, and learn, for the umpteenth time, that when WE feel that way, are often S.T. buying opps. using my "PSYCLE sm"....do some buying, with close stops, and re-learn the patterns....and, of further interest, the NASDAQ index low was now 'further/more standard deviations' below its 200 DMA, than any time since the 1987 crash....and here come the 1929 comments, more bottom stuff, dig ? also note how much my Puttables list has shrunken, as usual, after nice drops....the pattern rarely changes....meanwhile, my new chartbook shows an actual potential base in the NYSE's A/D line, hmmm.... and an at-least-short-term-anyway EVB in the NASDAQ's A/D Oscillator....WITHOUT caring a lick for ANYTHING political, economic, or financial, or Fed-related, as I teach, right ?

front-page L.A.T. 12/1, "the sell-off deepens", was/is another potential 'S.T. bottom', sign, dig ? and, its' "Bonds: a rush into safe havens', same day headline, says that most of that expected-by-us rally is likely over as well, dig ? as expected, got plenty of 'fakeout breakdowns' to sucker unenlightened people out, at 'the S.T. low', ay ? this is kinda easy at times, S.T. anyway, yes ? hope you took/are taking advantage....

Connectedly, L.A.T. 12/3, showed it has been a WORLDWIDE decline in stocks, as other country indexes have also fallen nicely: S. Korea -52 %, Mexico -33 %, Brazil -29 %, Japan -28 %, canada -22 %, Hong Kong -21 %, Germany -20 %, France -15 %, G.B. -11 %, from their 2000 highs, so far....so don't think 'we' have been the only such 'situation', dig ? And, once again, dammit, learn to take advantage of the short-side after big rises !

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) saw chart of Crude Oil, and, to me, shows another top around $ 32+ or so....note, their stocks ALREADY fell, BEFORE cash crude, and are already down -40 % or -50 % , BEFORE any 'bad news' comes out, as usual, as you have been taught in my Booklets.... 2) recent L.A.T. said, thru 12/2, L.T. T-bonds have outperformed most everything else, up + 14.7 % for the year 2000, vs. say, -16 % for foreign stock funds (which I predicted herein early in 2000 recall), -8.7 % for large domestic stock funds, -8.3 % for cash gold.... 3) the '30-yr. mtg. rate' is now lowest in 17 months in U.S., but the "11th district cost of funds', on which many variable mtgs. are based, is now at its highest rate since 1992....weird, huh....last, further confirming a R.E. top, same L.A.T. 12/1 reported that "the number of SF home purchases made with low down payments" is down -18 % from last year already, an expert saying, "rising prices are pushing entry-level buyers out of the market"....yup....

4) while I have correctly NOT liked most all Golds, some cheapies may have formed EVB's here for pops, but most are already approaching their still-falling 200 DMA's....eh.... 5) note only-predicted-here weakness in Finl./Mtg. stocks, neat, huh....even as 'the 95 %' continue to expect lower I.R.'s, as evidenced by how all maturities of bills/bonds yield less than the Fed Funds rate.... 6) interesting (but not really, if you know my "PSYCLE sm"), the same Hospital stocks which I was certainly the first to rec'd. Buying at multi-year lows, are now forming S.T. tops - as usual, just as 'the analysts who hated them at lows' are now beginning to love them, dig ? the pattern rarely changes....next....

7) given recent predicted-here-first pops among Cyclicals/Non-ferrous metals/Chem. stocks, added more in section (6) below.... 8) and we certainly were the first/only to call the S.T. bottom in Semiconductor-related stocks herein for you, again....neat.... 9) and ditto with the Telecom stocks, I was certainly the first/only to catch herein for you here....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) exactly as i was first to precit herein at top in popularity, L.A.T. 12/03, bgi articlke, "Diminshing returns for "Millionnaire" TV show", was indeed toast a few months ago....once again, NOTHING much escapes the full round "PSYCLE sm" trip.... 2) in a stunning waste of money, L.A.T. 12/03, Calif. tax dollars went to a recent study, which found, shockingly, that living in and commuting from suburbs to work, engenders increased/higher costs of living, than living and working in the city....well, duh.... 3) similarly, same L.A.T. reported another recent study, which found, amazingly, that "race, family and economiuc situations are jey factors in risky teen behavior"....the worse thos elements, the riskier the behavior....another big whoop, ay ? Who commissions these obvious needless studies ? ....4) while I correctly hammer him 95 % of the time, Mon. 8 am, CNBC's Pisani did finally say, "is it all that useful for analysts to downgrade stocks only after they have fallen a bunch ?"

5) I still do not like it yet techincally, but L.A.T. 12/3 main negative article, "DCX: deterioration accelkerates at beleagured auto maker", is exactly what I have taught you, normally gets published st this stage in its "PSYCLE sm", yes ? you know what to look for next, right ? recall the glowing article the L.A.T. printed at its top, yes ? the pattern rarely changes.... 6) similarly, front-page negative headline, "Facing sobering reality at once-soaring Broadcom....with stock options worthless....confidence wanes...." Again, exactly as I was among the first/only to have predicted from top, herein, and another in a ridiculously long list of examples of my "PSYCLE sm" in action....(ditto with CNXT locally, recall).....recmember, my yoga-class guy who got super-lucky to have a ton of stock given to him, has now lost 60 % in 3 months, yes ? This guy did not even know what a cycle was, and still refuses to learn anything of investing value....proving once again, that almost no people ever learn anything even after situations....human nature NEVER changes....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) I love it, once again, with ALTR, and GTW, and XLNX, 6 major B-firms finally downgraded it - after the close on Thu., hah....thanks for nothing, gang, as usual....I don't recall seeing so many downgrades after the fact before - probably another impending V.S.T.-at-least bottom sign, ay ? ....2) L.A.T. front-page R.E. section 12/2, had highlight of residential property, in Long beach, Ca., with headline, "new beachfront property is 50 % dols out"....uh, OK, that means it is 50 % unsold, right ? ooooh, be still my heart....since when is THAT 'news' ? they must have paid off someone at the paper, ay ?

3) BW mag. 12/4, p.172, a guy still does not like AMZN at $ 28, pointed out how they lost almost 100 % of their big investments in Webvan, pets.com, and www.living.com, all bt. near their tops....more proof that lots of those 'lucky yuppie' early Internet winners' talents did Not automatically transfer to other endeavors, as you have been taught to watch for from tops when they are lionized.... 4) 12/4 BW mag. long article about how Banks are tightening credit, as they begin to observe problems creeping with overspedning people and companies THEY extended too much credit to, as I have chronicled here before....sure, now they are going to cry, as usual, past the top in the economy....BW says their strategy may backfire, as shaky companies near ch. 11, go back to their banks instead of adjusting or closing shop....we shall see....what do YOU think will happen this cycle time ?

4) BW mag. 12/4, a now super-negative article "Broadband pioneers may get beaten, and eaten", on DSL companies (recall their super-positive article near their stocks tops, which I mentioned herein at that time, yes ?), still mentions that DSL "will pass cable as the most popular broadband connection, in 2003".... hmmm....VZ recently spent $ 150 mm buying a 6 % stake in COVD recall....and RTHM pres. said, "we're a scarce asset....there are a lot of folks interested in us." As I taught you, it is cheaper to buy established infrastructures than to build from scratch, so watch for some mergers in the DSL biz, over time.... 5) but that said, same BW mag., elsewhere, "Why most of us cannot ever have broadband", says, "while growing very fast, the raw numbers of Broadband subscribers remains less than 5 % of all U.S, homes....money and technology are likely to keep a cap on the number of subscribers....who will spend the $ needed to overhaul the cable networks ? the DSL situation is grimmer....there still must be an old-fashioned analog line to reach new subscribers and areas, which does not exist in many areas....less than 50 % of all homes will ever be offered DSL service, and service problems persist, and there remains a shortage of people and knowhow...." So, how do YOU think this technology will all play out ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) CNBC, Mon. 12:30, saw a VVG chart showing Crude almost perfectly correlated all along the way, with the US dollar, thorugh Craig Weldon, a rare intelligent guy, so ther's another decent chart for you to keepin mind.... 2) evidently, Stillwell capital (SV), parent of the janus Funds, has has a recent shrinkage in assets under mgmt., from $ 300. B. to $ 262. B., in just the last month of November - that's over $ 1 B. a day in w/d....think about that....and, as usual, most of it LATE/lower than they could have sold or w/d had they listened to guys like me, yes ?

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) BW mag. 12/4, a correct article about how "women feel and learn differently about investing" than men do....as I taught you years ago....B-firms are trying to change things to help more women, kudos to them....tailoring some materials, ads, seminars, groups, etc., to that gender....But I still find that new daytime TV show "men are from mars, women from venus", with Cybil Shepard, only fosters the rift between the sexes, as I have said for decades....

2) BW mag. 12/4, "The Rabbi of trading", highlights day-trading firm guru Mayer Offman, made $ 20 mm in each fo the lsat 2 years intraday overtrading....the salient points were, again, that 90 % of all daytraders lose all their stake, and, his comments, "only 1 person in 200,000 has the genetic capability of being a successful daytrader", and, "you've got no shot at being a trader if you've got chaos in your outside life", which is true.... 3) 12/4 BW mag., "Emerging Asia's shaky recovery", confirms again what i was first/only to surmise, previously reported herein a while ago, when I gave you the Semis as easy, obvious Puttables, yes ?

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....