1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) we/you added more s.t. puts in some techs also, which approached their 200 DMA's, right ?.... 2) kudos to Solomon for cutting travel-online stocks to underperform, Wed. - shockingly, they did this when they are extended - a real rare thing, as U have been shwon for decades by only me....as U know, they are on my Puttable list as well.... 3) since I have been among the very best at I.R. predictions, for decades, please realize that, though I do not think the 10-yr. T-bond yield will fall below 3.6 % (is now 4.1 %), the KEY, is whether or not/when/if it gets above its recent-month multiple-high 4.3 % or so yield, ahead, which, would cement the higher-yield-for-a-longer-time-shead concept I have espoused, dig ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Govt.,
etc.:
1) in an amazingly ignorant/incorrect comment, Wed., michelle C.Cabrera (dgms), actually said, "a few DJIA stocks are up today, because congress' Republicans are proposing lower taxes on dividends" - which is so wrong on so many dangerous levels, staggers the mind further (on top of the hundreds of other such massively bad comments she/CNBC has made over the years, right ?), anyway, then, Joe Kernan (ditto) compunded it by agreeing with her....stunning...
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) with the ocerreporting Disney stocks decline Wed., note how, 1) I was the first/only to give you a QLG from its lows herein, and, 2) DIS dropped right from its 200 DMA, yes ? the pattern rarely changes.... 2) Wed., CNBC, and your govt., misleadingly reported "u.s. productivity" up 4.5 % last Q, "the biggest period-over-period gain in years", as if that is a special - but, of course, this is compared to last year's downer, dig ? need I say more ? ....3) and, as i taught 20 years ago, being among the first/only to do so (for which I and others saying this at that time, alone, should probably gotten the Nobel prize, but I digress), Steve Leesman of CNBC actually correctly pointed out a caveat - that 'better productivity' often actually means LESS good-things for workers, since h.p. often comes at the expense of fewer workers/hours, and more machines-doing-things, dig ? I preicted this in the early 1980's, to deaf ears, as usual, then also.....it's not EZ being as good as I have been in many areas....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) MSDW & DB, Wed., downgraded the Semis, equip., elec. mfrs., svcs., companies, and others, after recent bounces....kudos to them, if so, because, as U know, i agree, s.t. anyway....all approached their resistance/200 DMA, yes ? are you learning ? if not, why not ?
e) more general, political, misreported items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
5 more Longs, and,
6 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts carefully, to learn patterns
note, Gains, on both, longside and putside, neat, huh ?
1/2 pos. stock RAD (1.80+ to 2.30+) for Q 27% Gain....1/2 pos. puts T-bond (112+ to 108-) for VVQ big % G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. SMRT (5+ to 7+) for Q 66% G.... 1/2 pos. calls FSS (16 to 19++) for Q 75% G....1/2 pos. calls CEGE (10+ to 13+) for Q 111% G....1/2 pos. BA res's, from 29 to 35 on BA, Q nice % G....bal. calls GBBK (14+ to 18++), ELK (15+ to 18+), for Q L % Gains....bal. puts COCO (39 to 42 to 35+) for small % G.... 1/2 pos. puts PFGC (37- to 33) for VVVQ 50% G....1/2 pos. puts UVN (33- to 27+) for VVQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts IMN (42+ to 37+) for VVVQ 55% G....1/2 pos. puts POT (67 to 61) for VVQ 50% G....
as before, one could (have been) sell(ing) ALL puts Gainers, instead of
1/2-pos(itions)....and, as you have learned, the recent little-damage QSL's on
the longside, are part of the good process and concept, and never affect our
OTHER long buys here, right ?
and/but, longs, BRCD, KMB, and, puts, WCN, BOH no, fo, SAFC fo ?!, MMM fobo ?, LFG fo ?, GYMB but fo ?, but prob. a fobo, UOPX fobo....and, in case you had some puts in any indexes, you had real QSL in balance of pos. not sold recently for Gains, yes ?, no damage....for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/2 pos. CMK @ 8-,
1/2 pos. KO @ 44++, 1/2 pos. ABX @ 14.15, 1/2 pos. MHX @ 7+, 1/4 pos. DG @ 12+, 1/3 pos. AMRI @ 14+, 1/3 pos. BSET @ 13+, HD res's due 7/03, 11.5 %, at $ 89, cvt. into 32 shs.,
1/3 pos. HPC @ 9-, HD res's 11.5 % due 5/03, @ 69, cv into 25 shs, 1/2 pos. DEG @ 17+, 1/2 pos. LTR @ 38+, and, cash Crude Oil @ 25+, 1/3 pos. SNE @ 40++, 1/3 pos. SMRT @ 5 3/8, 1/4 pos. JP @ 37 bd ?, 1/4 pos. KOSN @ 6+, 1/2 pos. REVU @ 4 7/8, 1/3 pos. BVC @ 5.50+ eh,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): OEH @ 13, 1/3 pos. FALC @ 3 7/8, 1/4 pos. USU @ 6 eh, GE's res's 10 % of 4/03 at $ 86., $ 78, DIS's res's 11.5 % exp. 3/03 at $ 69, 1/2 pos. MMTRS @ 25+ (ck. pot. big div.), 1/3 pos. HLR @ 9++...."buy (only) low", right ?,
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
and, of course, with so many quick pops, best to wait for pb's in those in
sec. (4) top, and buy the laggards, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....
*** Important: took, EPNY, UAL, IDE, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
AVY @ 65-, IMN @ 42+, RF @ 35, 1/2 pos. WON @ 39+, 1/3 pos. BLUD @ 23+, 1/2 pos. CTSH @ 73+, 1/2 pos. FCN @ 42, 1/3 pos. SMG @ 49+, 1/2 pos. INTU @ 55, 1/3 pos. QQQ @ 28++, for potential Drops:
some indexes and I.G. indexes were/are puttables around their 2000 DMA's, as herein, yes ?
"Repeats":
1/2 pos. CFBX @ 27++, 1/2 pos. CHTT @ 45-, 1/2 pos. RTBK @ 29+, 1/3 pos. OLOG @ 23-, SCIO @ 31, AZN @ 39++, POT @ 67+, ADP @ 43, 1/3 pos. KCP @ 25++, 1/3 pos. GNTX ?, 1/3 pos. TRB @ 49+, TJX @ 21, ROAD @ 40, SKT @ 29, 1/2 pos. CPG @ 34+, RGIS @ 30, PETC @ 25+ fo ?, UCBH 43+, GTY @ 20, COLM no, 1/2 pos. RARE @ 28, AMLN @ 18, 1/3 pos. DL @ 22, POG @ 30 fo, 1/2 pos. MMM @ 130+ fobo ?, ED @ 44+, LFG @ 27-, SAFC @ 36 fo ?, MHP @ 65, HR @ 32, CPG @ 35 fo, LIZ @ 32, BSC @ 66+, APOL @ 44+, ECL @ 50 fo ?, BAC @ 72,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", ABC, SKYWE, CLTK, CHRT, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, INDU, SPY, SMH, ONE, KSS, NVR, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7).... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's:
many more Gains for you, read them slowly and thoroughly to learn the patterns...
ABX 15.76, DEG 19.60, TXI. 27.07 up 0.90, AMRI. 15.83 up 0.55, SGEN 3.50, FSS 19.70 sos, AHMH 11.00, DKWD 10.52, crude oil 27.35, CMK 8.20 up 0.40, HAIN 15.95 up 1.02, HPC 9.60, HLR 10.43, GRP 11.00, higher since last NL here....while, CEGE, HAIN, approached/hit their 200 DMA....
and, these are either pulling
back, or bouncing after pb's, stick around:
obviously, getting plenty of v.s.t. pb's, after recent gains/pops, mostly techs:
DUK 19.03, 21.20, 19.75, ABX 15.21 pb, REVU 5.46 pb, KO 44.63 (B), MNC 16. pb, FSS 18.25 pb, DRRA 9.51 pb, DPH 8.07 pb, MHX 7.37 (B), 7.72, MCD 17.60 pb....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
JP 36.85 bd ?, GE's res's, KFY 8.30 oy, BVC, BRP....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
UVN -4 sow, IMN -3 1/2 sow, PFGC -3 1/2, UVN -the COMPX 1412 dn 100, POT -2 1/4, ADP -1 3/8, the QQQ 26.21 dn 1, INTU -2, FCN -2, CTSH -1 1/2, AZN -1, PENN -1, AFL, down further since last time here....while, getting several already down to their 50 DMA, 1/2-pos. sales gains, dig ? and, COCO -3 (S) after fobo....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must
weaken anew:
note, as mentioned in sec. (2) above, how many puttables popped
back up to potential resistance levels - and some are on verge of breaking out/up, and some had minor breakouts, poss. fobo's ?, so you're call from here in those, as usual (pun intended):
APOL, GDW -2 1/2 fobo, BAC -2 1/2, PETC fo ?, BG sow, LIZ -1 1/4, ECL -1 fo ?, GYMB fo ?, CLX fo ?, BUD, BSC -1 1/2, CRL up, sow, HR fo, MHP +1 3/8, SKT, GGP, SAFC, DE bo ? fo ?, BBBY -1 1/2, RGIS, ROAD, BDK, RBK up, WEC, MMM -3 1/2 fobo, CPG fobo ?, LIZ, LOW, MNTR....this ends the 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
** in
lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depr.
techs, telecoms, most/all computer-stuff, biotechs, drugs, cap. goods,
machy/equip., some blue chips, alt.-energy-relateds, internets, etc. No need to
give specific IG's here....except for sec. (2) part (1) above comments, like,
cap. goods/equip./trans. stocks as recent pot. db's, etc.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added even more:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
added, AAPL, to, ABX, ABC, EL ?, OMM, RTN, MAY ?, CK, ACRI, ARM ?, UAG, VTS, UFI, WMB, NSC no ?, GSIC, IPXL, SKYWE, STEL, COMS obpbo, CLTK ?, MNC, INMT, to, BBI, ABG, CEN, CNA, MHX, SNH div. ?, PGH div. ?, FRNT, AHMH, USPI, SYNP, VANS, VECO opbo, AMRI, GBCB ?, BSET, CHRT obpbo, ARNA, AKSY opb, EFDS, SEAC fobd, BFT, UCL, AKS, ATI, CKR, KM opbo, AHO, DG, TOL, NLS, PHI, DEG, DPL, LTR, FS, SAH, HD, HRC, CE, KO, MNC, SNE opb, SMRT, TTEC, REVU, CMK, KOSN, SGEN DDS, CVG, MCD obpbo, DUK, AFC opbo, JP ?, HPC, PPCO, BEV obpbo, BAY, AMX opbo, ACF opbo, KG fobd ?, OEH, SVC ?, MTF nah, CNH, CKP, DYN opbo, TAP.A opbo, HAIN, ACRI, ENZN opbo, NTRT, PDLI, CBR, RAD, HYGS, FALC, HLR,
all, as EVB's, or double-bottoms, or bases....
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
add, PGH, SNH, to, MMTRS eh, HQH eh nah, CMK opb, REX. U (HD 11.5 % 7/03 res's), REX.W (Intel 14 % res's, above), JPM 13 % res's's exp. 9/30/03 eh-bd, BMY res's - ny, GE res's, DIS 14 % res's, BA 11 % res's '03, C. 13 % res's, BBY 18.5 % res's, EOP, also see sec. 3) above ! but all only near recent lows....
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note, removed still
more, some not listed in sec. (3) above, get it ? what does this tell
you about the future, longside-wise ? again, it helped show us a s.t.
bottom, yes ?
added, INDU, SPY, SMH (s.t.o. all), to, BSTE, CTSH, JBHT ?, BLUD, INTU, FNFG, ONE, AVY, IMN, NYT ?, RF, SKT, WON, KSS ?, SSP, FCN, the QQQ, to, LQD, KCP, SYK, ACV, LXK dt ?, OFG dt ?, ADP, AZN, KCP, TRB, LSTR, CTSH, CFBX, REPB, CHTT, ABFS, MWRK fobo ?, GNTX, ROAD, KSWS ?, EXPE, SMG, TJX, RBK, UN ?, LIZ, CCR, OLOG, CRL, MHP, AMLN, HCP, UCBH, RGIS, GTY, SKT, PETC, MBG ?, BAC bwc, BSC, BBBY, DL, MKL, DF eh, BOH ?, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: O & G trusts, Fert., cosmetics, newspapers, dairy ?, to, compu. mfgs., comp. svcs, O & G ?, gems, Schools, Video Games, some Energies, Media,
added, to, REIT's/RE-homes-bldg.-orienteds, and, only some Banks/S & L, Financials, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES