Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
issue # 53, dated: 10:00 am, P.S.T., Monday, Dec. 7, 1998


Quick note: I am appreciative, that I have been selected by R. W. Mansfield Chart Sevice, Jersey City, N.J., in business since 1938, as one of only 25 NL writers/famous names, for their "Year-ahead Blue Ribbon Panel" Supplement, to be offered Jan. 7 or so....I have to fill out a questionnaire about 1999 predictions, groups, stocks, longs, shorts, etc. I will let you know how to get their Supplement, soon. You'll know most all the other people chosen to present, as, historically they have been real "well known" people, and evidently I am the first "new" choice for Mansfield, in a while. Am crossing my fingers.

I have added a plethora of stocks below....continuing to illustrate how "SPLIT" this market is, and how many stocks are bottoming, and topping, simultaneously....Online, it takes me maybe 10-15 minutes to quickly, briefly VIEW the stocks in section (3), for instance....obviously, narrowing your search to those issues which have your price requirements, helps eliminate many, i.e., not doing any puts, or not wishing any real cheap stocks, or only doing options, or margin, eliminates large portions of my stocks shared herein....I also am re-running the "7 stages of my PSYCLE" sequence, again, in section (8) below....

(these next 5 paragraphs, are repeated exactly from last time, for "NEWER" subscribers to please read thoroughly....if you have already read them, feel free to skip down)

I am certainly going to try to make my NL's "shorter", where possible/logical, while still providing Tons of excellent output for ALL types of subscribers and needs....but, in order to do so, I am sometimes going to have to leave out many "basics" I am assuming you should know, from having read all my materials....I can never please everyone, all the time, and it is illogical and bothersome that some people actually expect just that, so please just accept the voluminous, excellent info. wherein, in the clear, easily useable format provided, and concentrate on learning the PATTERNS. Taking just a couple of hours a week to actually learn something of true lifetime value, is probably worth thousands of dollars a year to you....and this is certainly worth the effort, compared to how much time many people waste on some other activities, which neither teach, nor offer, anything of lasting value, compared to my output....

If you are a "NEWER" Subscriber, please take the time to read ALL of the "wordy" parts of the NL, once or twice, anyway... If you are an "OLDER" Subscriber, of course, feel free to SKIP, to the NL sections you wish to glean info. from. (Save all my CUMULATIVE letters, for future reference/educational learning/help)

*** If you are pressed for time, read section (2) to develop a "feel" for our Sentiment patterns--- and Section (3) always, while viewing the CHARTS....each NL tends to run about 10-12 pages, printed out....So much valuable info. in one place. Also, Obviously, when "more, or fewer" longs, or puts, are given herein, that also tells us more about "the internals, and likely future direction of the market", yes ? And, please, neither expect ME to stay "super hot" nor "super cold" forever. (and a helpful, quick "PSYCLE sm" note: obviously, "S.T." herein, means "short-term", i.e., weeks, and "L.T." means "long-term", i.e., months....)

If you are not "already long" in the long/puts stocks listed, especially in sections (4) and (5), you may feel like ignoring some of the sections below--- feel free to do so--- but it is much better if you take the time to check ALL stocks mentioned herein....you can (and are expected to) also refer back to "the Guide" (green) and other Booklets, for more info./details, so I don't have to keep mentioning "basics" herein, that you should already know about, dig ? The process will become second nature to you quickly: buying longs, and/or puts, with close stops, diversifying, etc. Most, from Section (3).

Some people ARE spending 2-4-6 hours a week with my NL's, others just 30-45 minutes a week....I provide a plethora of (so many) helpful ideas, so that, stocks are given, offering something of value, for Every type of need, from Longs, to Puts, from low-priced, to blue-chips, for stock traders, and pensions, from cash, to margin, to "options on stocks" traders, and for people who just trade "Ind. Group Sectors with Mutual Funds sectors"....Also, some stocks are less liquid than others, and have variuos price ranges, so you have a good CHOICE....Also, giving more ideas than fit "PSYCLE sm" patterns, gives us a more COMPLETE picture of the overall market, yes ? I have even added some "potential high-yield depresseds" below in section (6)....Whatever helps people, the most, is herein. I have many different types of valued subscribers, from beginners, and/or brand-new subscribers, to L.T., and/or very sophisticated traders, dig ? I put out ALL the best ideas, at the best times, and teach things of supreme value....so, Learn first--- then put into practice, the long-existing, simple, highly-reliable, repeating "patterns" I teach.

It is assumed you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under the logo on my main webpage...I cannot infer my future performance will always match my past track record, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "view" the 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of the recent highs/lows prices, stops. I give you way more than enough info. to succeed mightily at this....Judging from significant feedback, which I do appreciate, Many subscribers certainly ARE doing this, very well, with no problem, directly from these NL's, period. Take the time.

FIRST, assuming you are already knowledgeable about all "PSYCLE sm" tenets, and/or just want the most current "actionable" stocks, view stocks from Section (3) --- then also, from within sections (6) and (7)....you are expected to know/ see when those set up properly, also for "Industry Group Rotation", always cutting losses when they break their patterns, etc. Then, read Section (2) for "How (Not) to Use Media/Finl. Commentary, from a Psycle p.o.v."....After reading a few NL's, you will already be aware of most stocks from the/our recent past....This simple process should be labor of enjoyable fulfillment and learning, and not a chore, dig ? I give you a lot, whether you use it or not is up to you....Last, "follow-ups" of assumed Hypothetically already Long and Put ideas, are in sections (4) and (5)....of course, if you want to get the most, for the least, read everything....Reading my output can make you a lot of money....reading most papers, magazines, novels, other NL's, watching primetime TV, etc., will Not.

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
New Commentary: Although you know we NEVER try to "predict Indexes/averages/the market", here are some very Current "Market" Comments: no new words of wisdom, things pretty-much progressing as suggested, but you really MUST have "one" Energy stock here, long, with a close stop....

** (still repeating from last time here) Adding more Puts, as I am seeing more double-tops, and "hook EVT's" and stocks hitting resistance levels after bounces from Fall lows (hey, that's a pun....Fall lows....) --- We still have quite a "Split" market, as we get, 1) real breakouts, fakeout breakouts, and 3 types of tops forming, among higher-priced, bigger-named, extended issues, and others which have only popped up towards their still-falling 200 DMA's resistance, becoming more "PSYCLE sm" Puttables....With, 2) some still-depressed-and-not-yet-bounced Longside ideas added, some as EVB's, and others which are pulling back from their initial bounces off their Sept./Oct. lows I gave you herein....We will also likely have to lengthen our expected holding period a bit, from here, on newer Long buys....No sweat, as recent gains have been quicker than we normally would expect anyway....But--- do NOT ignore the Put-side here, with close stops, even given some Q, S losses there recently....It is BECAUSE of these 6 types of "PSYCLE sm" patterns are occuring, simultaneously, that so many long and put stocks have been added....hey, that's what the market is telling us....if there were fewer ideas that fit "PSYCLE sm" actionable patterns, I'd GIVE you fewer ideas....when there are more, I give you more, for your benefit. More chart patterns to view and learn from, yes ?

* TIP: I am pretty Comprehensive/Thorough, herein: There are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed herein: a) Stocks that can be ACTED on, here and now, if still right near given prices in recent section (3)'s, b) Stocks which, if they get back to the price where they were when originally suggested, remain/become tradeable again, and/or, which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and might also illustrate "Industry Groups" potentially shaping up, and/or as Educational ideas, for YOUR benefit, in sections (6) and (7).... and, c) already assumed long stocks, or puts, being followed-up, which are rising/ falling, and are not buys/puts any more, but just "holds" or "underperformers", in sections (4) and (5)....All previous ideas are followed up, till "sold" or "removed from lists". Please try to find "charts" to view, which also have 200 DMA's on them, via many free "web" sites....Call me if you need some places to get them....Learn the Chart patterns, then add my "Media/Sentiment/Psychological" patterns, and voila....


Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3). And note, the "learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2).

Please learn not to ever overemotionalize/worry about/extrapolate, any "most recent past" performance forward, good or bad, "PSY-chologically", because you may miss the next bunch of Gainers, Longs or Puts, while you are "ruminating about the last batch", dig ? Just because the "last few" may not have worked, does NOT mean "the next few" will not....in historical FACT, the vast majority of "PSYCLE sm" ideas HAVE indeed worked, real well, in all market conditions, way better than any other approach, for many years now, as you have seen....it is one's inner "psyche and expectations" which might be sometimes too anxious, too impatient, too fearful, too S.T., or too demanding, at times. Also, do not expect to mirror my/our recent excellent long-side performance forever....Now, to the Good, NEW Stuff:

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) Notes: 1) obviously losks like we were the first/only to catch another low in Oil Service stocks for you here, hope you got some recently.... 2) some Internets came real close to breaking again, Fri., with our EBAY actually doing so....3) also, note, developing pullbacks-after-sales -for-big-gains, in our Farm/Chem./Fert. stocks, which, when/if they correct still more, may set up again as Buys down the road....will watch for that.... 4) and, still hoping for better buying opportunities in depressed Gaming stocks, holding up recently.... 5) also, I continue to see more and more previously-depressed stocks approaching their 200 DMA"s resistance, see next paragraph ....6) obviously, one can just about pick any Energy and/or Service stock here, from the many included in sec. (3) and (6) below....

7) For your Learning/Education, notice how, many Papers, Brokers, Banks, Insurance, Airlines, have recently just/only risen to approach their 200 DMA resistance, as I predicted/expected, after having fallen decently to Sep./Oct. lows....try to Concentrate on the Individual stocks and charts, and Groups, and NOT big "Indexes"....One is asking a LOT, to hope for still much higher prices among these/those kinds of stocks, and those in section (7) I.G.'s below....

b) L.A. Times, 11/3, article, "Investors pour cash back into stock mutual funds": as figured, it showed M.F. buyers added 6 times the money into funds in Nov. (late, after rises from lows, dig ?) than they added in Oct., and twice Sept.'s levels....Schwab showed $ 1.75 B went into MF's in Nov., vs. zero, net inflow in Oct., and Fidelity said they had a $ 3. B net inflow in Nov., after a net outflow of $ 1. B in October....Another interesting figure, was the Vanguard Group, saying 80 % of all $ going into their MF's, went into Index Funds....gee, late, AND desiring not to beat the averages. All showing a bit "too much confidence" now, vs. too much pessimism, near Sep./Oct. lows. Still being careful here.

c) more incorrect/improper/misleading/late Media/company/announcements/ articles, vs. illogical/"unlinked" stock price moves: 1) Fri., 12/4, 9 am, pst, cnbc's Bob Pisani, actually said, "the bulls I have spoken to, have made it clear to me, that they would like to see much higher prices on higher volume...." duh.... 2) cnbc, 3 times, Fri., said, "I don't get it....if Oil prices are falling, how come Airline stocks are not flying ?"....and, (thanks, subscriber K.W.), heard on cnbc, "here it is, the day before Thanksgiving, the busiest airline travel day of the year....how come the Airline stocks are down ?" ....3) cnbc, noon, Fri., said, "we're seeing bargain hunting in Intel, up 4, to 113...." huh ? "bargain hunting" ? near its all-time high ? oy....

d) more brokerage/analyst comments, right and wrong: 1) 12/4, I.B.D., interesting, showed 5 of our buyable stocks, JDAS, PSFT, LYO, DO, NE, were upgraded, but one of our Put stocks, MUEI., was also upgraded....and, IT and MPS, two I also like, were downgraded--- right near recent lows, and, H & Q actually downgraded PAIR, from a "buy" to a "hold"--- right near its multi-year low....we shall see....

As you have seen the last several months, how much better one does, just "doing" the best individual stocks (long, and/or puts), while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to "seek and process" tons of other, useless info., anyway, and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
 Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period.... VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period) also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2" sale....ans, "css" means "covered short sale", where no puts options existed....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when originally recommended herein, to the price where very rently Hypothetically "sold"):
1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. ANET (5++ to 14) for 175% Gain....1/2 pos. puts CL (94+ to 82) for VQ 111% Gain....1/2 pos. calls NLC (28+ to 34+) for Q 111% G.... 1/2 pos. puts PIXR (53- to 43-) for VVQ 90% G....puts SCG (36+ to 32+) for 66% G ....1/2 pos. puts ASDV (37- to 32-) for VQ 55% G....1/2 pos. puts MUEI. (24- to 19+) for VVQ 90% G....1/3 pos. ELNK (75- to 55+) for VVQ 125% G....1/2 pos. puts AVP (42- to 37) for VQ 66% G....puts STB (78 to 72) for VVQ 80% G....1/2 pos. puts ITW (67- to 62+) for VQ 50% G....puts UCM (40- to 38+) for VS gain....and, puts, CMCSK, PRGX, CDWC, FLEX, USCS, EVGN, LGTO, USM, GDT, DHR, STI., LU, CF, AGN (64 to 60 to 64+), and 1/3 pos. ELNK (54 to 75+ to 55+), and, longs, BSRTS, IPIC, TBP, MSX, EEX, FLS, SNT, ALF, CFK, ISV, for VQ, very small losses....Recent sales have "cleaned up/removed" many positions for us....remember, a few real small Q losses will never hurt us much....cutting Q, S losses will also keep us in the game, for the larger gains that follow....hey, I am upset with "any" losses....While I always show all Hypothetical losses, less than a handful of subscribers have said they have actually had more than a few Puts losses, since I began early June, so this sometimes looks worse on paper than in reality.

It is also nice to see so many of my previously-given long-side Winners, have pulled back/corrected since we 'sold' them herein for you....and we also accept that some "whipsaws" may occur with our Energy issues here, cutting losses, then some revalidate....but those we 'sold' still should have been sold....

NOTE: while all the $ under 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains would have been multiplied, even higher, right ? We just prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying their stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less risk, and similar reward potential--- another "PSYCLE sm" benefit for you....stocks themselves have no premium, right ? and, of course, if one just bought longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains would be smaller, though still excellent for so short a time period, yes ?

As taught in my "EVB/BDG" booklet: Note how some recent Longs have been "sold" in 1/2 and 1/2 positions, in 2 parcels, as previously suggested....this allows us to Control/Lower our risk further, and remove our Emotions, while still 'taking' Quick, Large % Gains....Also, when some stocks rise so much, so fast, it often does Not pay to "stick around to see what happens", in S.T. potential greed, because many of these stocks WILL pull back/correct....While there may be other buyables today, which look, today, like those recently Sold, looked, a few weeks ago, which may be better buys/holds than those "sold" up here, dig ?

**** New IMPORTANT note: LEARN THIS: with some of our recent S.T. depressed double-bottom (db) "W" stocks/formations, we are most likely going to sell 1/2 position on the "initial rise, to the top of the "W" formation", then, holding some back, in case those kinds of stocks do breakout above the "middle" of the "W" pattern, dig ? This way, we remove emotions, attachements, and we don't get over-excited with large % S.T. moves....We also lower our risk tremendously, from where 1/2 pos. is sold....Then, when/if those type of stocks fail to breakout, especially after a pullback, then, we consider selling the rest of our position, as near the top of the "W" formation as we can get....simple, effective. Again, nothing is "perfect"...."just get close(r)", and do everything else right.

* YOU MUST view/see/FIND where the 200 Day Moving Averages (DMA) are, on every single depressed EVB stock, ahead, here !!!! YOU MUST DO THIS....how else are you going to learn ? for instenace, as I said, In the larger perspective/scheme of things, some of our "depressed longs" might continue to Just have the "rally back up to where they broke down from", vs. their recently formed EVB's.

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right near these prices only:
(either for cash, especially in pensions, and/or on margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/ available, always diversifying, always with close stops below/above recent lows/highs): (note: If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables", long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a " + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-, means, 55 5/8 to 56, dig ?)....again, the idea is to just get "real close" to my listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....


**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, many more/new names here, and many more Energy/Services, yet almost no depressed Techs):
(new ones) HAL @ 28+, DO @ 22-, NE @ 12-, HP @ 17-, SGE @ 10+, PHYC @ 5+, FTR @ 13++, GHV @ 9, SHG @ 5-, MPN @ 3 7/8, SOC @ 6.06, NX @ 18-, JOB @ 6, IO. @ 7++, (repeats....note, there are some are "new" repeats here) ICIX @ 17+, MAVK @ 5+, CHK @ 1.31, MS @ 1.06, NR @ 6-, DX @ 4++, HXL @ 8+, PDE @ 7, IHSC @ 6+, GLM @ 8 9/16, CBRL @ 22+, BEZ @ 20-, AAC @ 3 3/8, PFG @ 1.06, TFT @ 5++, GLDR @ 1, NOI. @ 8+, LPX @ 16++, CMO @ 3.06, MPS @ 12-, BEV @ 5 13/16, UPX @ 2.06, AZC @ 0.57, AEC @ 12+, CPP @ 15+, BHI. @ 17, KRY @ 0.44, HBI. @ 5 3/8, PIN @ 5+, LXR @ 15/16, RDC @ 9 1/2, VDC @ 3 11/16, DHC @ 3 11/16, MSN @ 0.41, VGZ @ 3/16, TOX @ 5/16, SSC @ 11/16, IIR @ 3 5/8, WLM @ 11+, FEN @ 3 7/16, BIR @ 4++, MLT @ 7+, CAU @ 0.31, RYO @ 5/8, NGX @ 7/16, Z. @ 7-....most are still EVB's.... "buy low", right ? Note, we are revisiting some "previously given/traded" issues....and, more importantly, that, now, AFTER recent rises, most "new buys" are real cheapies, and/or "laggards" with less "sexiness", dig ? What does THAT tell you ? also see the "just missed" issues, below...

NOTE: as I teach in the "green Guide" Booklet, you should already understand, that, very often, there is NOT "just one day" when my ideas become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/ fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....

*** remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! This is covered in "the Guide" and herein, endless times.... "just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media patterns.

** Important: took, SFR, SFY, SDC, IAD, SIL, OXY, --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows....also recall the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS", for potential Drops: (new ones) VNWK @ 36++, NETA @ 52-, GEOC @ 28+, CBUK @ 30, ISCA @ 35+, EAT @ 25+, LFG @ 60+, FDO @ 20+, PVN @ 95-, MDT @ 71+, ASO @ 44-, PG @ 91, CMA @ 68, (I like how some of these look, chart-wise)
(repeats) BRCM @ 95, INTU @ 62-, METZ @ 43-, PRGN @ 39+, BRG @ 35+, FAM @ 44+, MYL @ 34+, FAM @ 44+, PPDI. @ 28++, ACCOB @ 51-, GAS @ 44+, CCIL @ 64+, TYC @ 67+, CAH @ 72, ECL @ 32+, GD @ 61, CG @ 59+, PE @ 41++.... and/but, remember, I/we have NO "market scenario", ever, as you know....and, note, too many minor breakouts all of a sudden, so am taking more real small, quick Puts losses above, and NOT fighting the tape....

and/but, Took, UNPH, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's.

....and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", PGO, PRD, HPH, VCD, RAIL, CFS, VRC, SDC, COG, NIL, as Longs near very recent lows, and, INKT, COMR, CDRD, ANF, as Puts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this biz, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing such charts, also tells us, whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.


All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit ....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, are mentioned....if you do Not own any of them, you can concentrate on Sections (3), then (6) and (7) below, for "newer" potential long buys and puts ideas.

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, mentioning, and still remaining long in them, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy up here, up already, and/but acting O.K., so stay in these for now:

**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)

(note, these have always been listed, in order, from the biggest % moves, to the smallest important price moves): MPN 4 3/4 up 1 1/8, SHG 6 up 1 1/8, LXR 1 3/8 up 1/4, SGE 12 up 2, JOB 6 5/8 up 7/8, PDE 7 3/4 up 1, JDAS 9 1/2 up 1 1/8, HXL 8 7/8 up 7/8, GLM 9 3/8 up 7/8, NE 13+ up 1 5/8, DO 24 1/4 up 2 1/2, ANET 14+ up 1 (sos), HAL 31 up 3, WJ 20- up 1, CBRL 23 1/2 up 1 1/2, , PCTL 7 1/8, CTB 19 3/4, LTC 17 1/2, NLC 34 1/4 (sos), INPR 6 3/4, NOI. 10+, TFT 6 1/2, NX 18 3/4, MGN 2 5/8, HBI. 6-, up/further, since last time here....

also, for the last time, see, SFO 15 up 6 wow, OXHP 14 1/2 up 3 1/2, APM 9 5/8, IMC 25+, UST 35+, TEK 26+, DGN 21, TER 40, WDC 18+, AMD 32, NSM 17, LSI. 20, FTL, higher still, gave you here near low....view their charts to see what they looked like as EVB's and depressed double-bottoms, when I gave them in this NL back then....

please appreciate, that I have subscribers who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....another, of mnay reaons why we are so against "day-trading": why anyone would limit one's potential, and increase one's stress, on purpose, is beyond illogic.

and/but, then, seeing many pullbacks, like, FLC 9 3/8 up 1 5/8, HMY 8 1/4 up 3/4, SGE 11 dn 1, BTGC, CWC, ZAP, TXB, MPN, TGX, DBRSY, BUR, HOC 16 5/8, UNO 7-, GLT, NR, CEI., PETC, TRMB, PSFT, APFC, PCMS, IHSC, ADM, JBAK, NBTY, Oil Services, HXL, MAVK, LTV, LWN, WEL, ISV, WIT, SUL, ELY, PDE, ATX/A, VOX, ROP, "Steels", PCMS, WLM, AXC, IHSC, BHI., GGC, NGX, SSC, MCN, DAY, CCH, WTS, WLV, RYO, UPX, IIR, WS, DX, NS, Z., pb (pulling back)....some of these are also in "ms" list below) again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers.... Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues ....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T. gratification"

* and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen,
and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(some of these are also in "pb" list above) DX 5 up 1/2, RDC 10 1/4 up 3/4, MCN 19 1/2, DBRSY, BTGC, PHYC, GLB, HBI., TWA, CEI., LTV, ROP, OLN, GGC, BEV, BST, CTI., VDC, GLM, MCL, TRMB, FEN, ATX/A, FLC, NTBY, IKN, ANET, JBAK, TMA, MRVC, GRERF, WLM, ROP, CWC, WIT, BHI., HXL, AMLN, BST, cheap Golds, Energy/Svc., Steels, NGX, SSC, LWN, VOX, CMO, WKGP, DEN, ATV, VTO, WTS, TPR, WEL, ZAP, AZC, AXC, RYO, CAU, IIR, MS.

**** and, (for the last time here) you must please VIEW, and LEARN, these charts/patterns, if not done already: on my TV appearance, 11/25, I specifically showed a bunch of "Depressed "PSYCLE sm Bases/double-bottoms, where similar companies in similar Industry Groups, had similar chart patterns at the same time, then rose up towards/to their 200 DMA's"....If you get some time, and can get charts with 200 DMA's, please actually view these (every one WAS specifically recommended herein, near their lows): add, LSI., DLJ, CCA, COL, CD, DJ, to, ACK, AHG, ANDW, APAC, ATML, BYX, CHA, COT, CS, DEX, DNB, EMF, FEI., FJ, GCR, HNP, INCY, IRF, MER, MII., MME, NA, NSM, OWN, PAP, PETM, RYC, SEM, SQNT, STJ, UNP, UQM, WCS, WFR....see how each rose right up to its 200 DMA ? neat, huh....also, these did the same: ADSK, BA, CA, CNI, COFI., LRCX....and, of course, many Financials, Banks, Insur. stocks, rose up to their 200 DMA's/resistance, after having previously Fallen, big-time, from stage 4 tops....this should really help your "Visual" chart pattern knowledge....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy puts on these now, but acting properly, stick around:
 Puttables specifically given you herein, which are Falling/further: EBAY -44, then +18, then -17, YHOO -22, then +7, MYL -5, PIXR -3 3/4, PRGN -3 3/8, CMGI. -3 (S), XRX -3, METZ -2 1/2, ASDV -2 (sow), INTU -2, CAH -2, PG -2, PNY -1 3/8, MDT -1 1/2, ASGN -2 3/4, PVN -2, TSFW -1, BFO -1, LFG -1, USTC, CPRT, SNRZ, ABX (sow), PDG, SUP, GNE, ROH, GPU, UHS, CL (sow), DV, down/further, just since last time here....and also see 'bouncers' below. Note, we were the first/only, to catch some Golds as Puts, near recent highs, for you here....also, see TFX, whipsaw, fell anyway....

* Note, how I, again, am giving you some Puttable stocks which are Falling, as most of "the market", and especially high-priced, name, quality-type stocks, rise, again....that I am among the very few, giving out ANY profitable puts, since early Sept. (and tons more, from March, and from July through Oct.) should be enough, yes ?

Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support".... "(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, or as in section (3) above ....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.... **** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....


* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): getting many intraday drops and bounces, MSPG +5, INTU -2, XCIT +2, VOD -2, CCE -1, COLTY, OMC, JCOR, PE, PRGN +1, BRG, TYC, CMA, EBAY, YHOO, AOL, XCIT, SCUR, ITWO -1, FISV, TLC, CAH, CGX, GM, ASDV, CBC, TSFW, USF, CMA, ACXM, TXT, PPDI., RCGI., BSYS, ACCOB, ZION, BOBJY, MLM, GPU, EGR, GVA, PPL, CBC, ITW, GD, and all Internets must still break below recent lows....See, many stocks must "follow-through", and break below recent lows, to warrant holding their Puts....


Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn from.

6) Now--- Here are Other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades, or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also, there may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times, right ? Of course, near the highs in March, and July, this list was much smaller, yes ? It is logical and expected, after the recent mini-crash, That there have been/are more "EVB's", yes ? Also, remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their lows, with stops for protection.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for Rotation":almost no great Bases here, just many decent EVB's and double-or-triple-bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: when there are more stocks listed in an I.G. here, that tells you I feel more strongly about that I.G., right ? Which, in turn, tells you a lot about how "the market" looks, sometimes....

Semis/Comp./Techs: please see "Techs", listed, in the "watching" section, just below.
Prec.Metals (GLDR, KRY, GRERF, CCH, AZC, VGZ, RYO, SSC, DAY, BGO, CAU, all real cheapies, risky)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Paper) (add, BCP, NL, to, WIT, BIR, WS, LTV, BS, TFT, NX)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (add, HAL, CHK, TDW, ATW, VTS, FGI., VPI., DO, NE, HP, to, TBI., PGO, NOI., NE, GLM, MLR, WGR, CFK, MAVK, FEN, MHR, KSF, TRP, RDC, WEL, WLM, IIR, NR, VRC, PDE, BHI.), one of the best groups here, yes ?
Biotech/Health/Medical (add, GHV, to, PHYC, GNSA, VTS, TGX, LXR, MT, TOX, ULB, MGL, HIV, CCLR, BDR, TOX, MPN, MS)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (add, PBY, SRR, SME, to, CBRL, PRD, BBA, LDRY, BUR, KFI., MSN, OO, UNO, SGE, BLM, VCD, GCO, HBI., Z.)
Capital Goods (CWC, ROP, CTB, LDW, HPH, HXL)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (MIR, SER, JAMS, UDR)
Employment (add, OLS, to, JOB, MPS, RMDY, ESOL)
And, again, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E./REIT/Financials/ Mtg.-type stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends, may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, PFG, AAC, ALF, AEC, AML, AMMB, BNP, BOY, BRI., CBG, CPP, CMO, CRO, ENN, FBG, FCH, NDE, GLB, GRT, IMH, KPA, LTC, JPR, MAA, PMC, RFS, RWT, SIR, SPF, TMA, UDR, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)

NOTE: as I said above, ON BIGGER PULLBACKS ONLY, stocks like our Farm./Chem/Fert., Golds, and Techs, may set up as depressed buys again, down the road....as always, I will let you know at that time....have patience.

And, as I have been saying here, even though I have given you a ton of quick 50-100% gains, since Sep./Oct., do NOT expect as large rises off bottoms, as when I gave out similar "EVB" Techs, in the late '97/early '98 period (nor, from the late '95 to early '96 period....I was first/only to do so near their lows at those times), because there are NOT many "true bases" here--- just some with good EVB's ....we accept occasional Q, small losses in some longs, w/close stops, along the way....Also note that many already popping/popped stocks are due to pull back, soon, after their recent/initial "dead-cat bounces". This is normal, and welcome.

and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": SFR, SFY, SDC, IAD, SIL, OXY, --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off lows), as "EVB's", diversified, w/close stops....these, plus the stocks listed above, and the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above, comprise the "total" complete long-side buyable lists in today's market.

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: add, NPSI., PAIR, MMG, GDC, NOV, LYO, IHS, CMH, CS, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, VSNR, ICIX, OMPT, SYNT, STRX, IHSC, PCR, CFS, ISV, CPU, ALN, SEW, CLCDF, AFCI., INPR, MLT, PSFT, LPX, BEZ, TWA, AGTX, JDAS, DHC, VDC, UPX, THP, ZAP, CXI., ILX, TFT, TRMB, PCMS, ELCO, MRVC, LWN, BMC, CYI., PIN, ICA, IO., IV, IT, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls., Foreign, Health"), plus, the Value Line issues: NSANY, DEMP, CEPH, GNSA, OFIS, BUNZ, SEW, TSA, FNL, MGN, COE)....some here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....

**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base" technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each, to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or rise, dig ?

7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?):

(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet) now, I add some more Puttables, again, after/into recent bounces:

Fuller, Potential Puts list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY, do NOT "chase down":

note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....
(banks/insur.) ZION, LFG, PVN, BBC, HIG, MLM, PGR, XRX, MSBC, ASO, CMA, (br> (comp./techs/s'ware) BOBJY, CTXS, TSFW, ALSI., DELL, BSYS, ASND, PRGN, GEOC, NSIT, (br> (retail) COST, AEOS, LOW, NDN, ANF, FDO, LOW, LIN,
(telecom/commun.) CDRD, BRCM, TLD, VNWK,,
(medical/health/drug) ACCS, ELN, UHS, MYL, EL, DRD, PGNS, MDT, CAH,
(food/bev.) PZZA, CCE, EAT,
(cap. goods) GE, CGX, TYC, JCI., GVA,
(others, misc.) GBLX, METZ, ISCA, OSI., CBUK, AMR, ECL, PG,
also watching: AGPH, TROW, NEON, PPDI., AWS, RATL, SFXE, MFNX, GBLX, NTLI., BBC, SBL, SCH, Advertising stocks, on/into/after strength, soon ?

the Best Puttable Industry Groups: still, Extended Banks, Health/Medical/ Drugs, Insurance, Finance, Computers, Retails, Internets, Aero./Def., Food/Bev., High-PE techs, all types of Tele.-Commun., in no particular order, as the most probable Puttables, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks.... Also, extended Biotechs may be beginning their top process....but Utilities are a real mixed bag, sorry....Some are breaking patterns, others still toppy.

Last, FYI, these "big-name extendeds" all look the same here, as potential fakeout-breakouts, but I am not recommending them for Puts quite yet: CSCO, CPWR, MNMD, MSFT, RMBS, SUNW, VISX, VRTS.

8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:

"PSYCLE sm" stage 1: the "depressed base", as the "Exhaustion V Bottom (EVB)", often turns into a flatter formation, after a BIG decline:

The key requirements for any stock in becoming potential lower-risk/higher- potential Buy, are that, a) that stock HAS to have been MUCH higher before....a stock which has never been much higher, and/or has not had a BIG fall, is NOT usually a stage 1 candidate.... b) it has to have completely STOPPED falling, forming at least an EVB, often on high, cathartic volume (stage 7), but bases can also be double-bottoms, or "L" shaped bases, lazy teacup saucers, or a tight, thin, long "rectangle" formation.... c) by nature, there MUST have been preceeding, or occuring now, a period of "bad stuff" having happened to that company, fundamentally.... d) in the base, after the cathartic low, volume dries up, and stays low, with much less interest from the financial community, and, e) remember, the initial, eventual rise out of the base, is likely to occur well BEFORE any reported improvement in the fundamentals.... f) down the road, and it may take weeks/months, we begin to see "volume pops", as smarter bargain-hunters buy from ignorant scared-sellers, as, eventually, more people who bought much higher, and/or held all the way down, refuse to sell the depressed stock down here, refuse to take losses, etc., becoming L.T. holders, dig ? ....g) eventually, the supply of stock outstanding is more and more held, by people who low-holders or new-buyers, neither whom are liekly to seel, unless the stock rises a bunch anyway, yes ? Just the vagaries of intrayear supply and demand, can lead to occasional 50-100 % pops, even WITHIN a longer base, again, especially when the other stocks in that I.G. pop, even if the stage 1 stock is "not as good"....

of course, the idea, provided you already know how long your desired, ideal holding period is, that we want to buy, long, when, 1) the EVB or base, is also occuring in many OTHER stocks in similar Industry Groups, at the same time, giving us more power, 2) and/or "the market" has been whacked big, recently, and many EVB's or double-bottoms have formed, and, 3) we want to be sure The Financial Industry and Media doe NOT like the stock/company/group, fundamentally, with negative sentiment apparent (which is positive, of course).

Fact: historically, a much HIGHER % of depressed stocks DO indeed rise again, vs. disappearing, or never going up again !!! Only real unenlightened people think depressed stocks are "more risky somehow".... Any "new lows", or declines, which "break" the budding base/EVB/double-bottom pattern on that chart, unless the whole market is getting killed, are definite warning signs....our "stops" are mentally pre-set, on any new low price below the most recent low....

Initial upside targets from stage 7/stage 1 lows, on real depresseds, are either, up to their still-falling 200 DMA, or the previously-broken-down-from price, which led to the final fall, in stage 7....Initial upside targets on longer-based stocks, is either, the top of that longer base, where previous bounces have stopped before, or, the usual, probably 33-50 % back up, rise towards the previous year-or-two's high....i.e., if it fell from 30, to 6, the stage 1 rise, might reach 1/3 to 1/2 the-way back up towards 30 again, or to, about the 14 to 18 area, as just a general rule....Again, this is an ART, not a science.... additional things like, seeing bigger volume, or pops-and-pullbacks, showing it is ready for a bigger rise at some point ahead, help....obviously, the trick is to get as far to the "right side of the base" as you can, when buying....

so, now you know the briefest basics of stage 1, in most all stock's "PSYCLE sm"....oh, and, remember, everyone's perspective differs: stage 1 can be viewed as, say, only a 1-2-month basing/bottoming period after a big drop, if you are a S.T. trader, and/or, a 3-6-9-month basing period, if you are a longer-term investor....and last, a bigger [revious drop, will normally lead to a bigger % rise, off the EVB/base low, which, I guess, is obvious....Hey, you's be surprised how few people, even pros, know aboput stage 1....hope this helped.
As I have said here before, it is sometimes part of the 'saucer' bottom formation on many depressed stocks, that a "minor new low" be made, in the middle, or at the end, of the pattern.....This is done to "sucker/keep out", many holders/ buyers, so the smart money can get in (often, the market maker at the lows), at the best price....
IMPORTANT: people keep trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time.... just get close, and do everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my webpage and on the front of every Booklet.

As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.

Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/ logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.