1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) was I, again, the first/only guy to call V.S.T. bottoms and pops in depressed Techs, while 'the 95 %' became illogically scared ? as usual....they rarely learn, and the pattern rarely changes, but you knew that.... 2) our March T-bond broke out/up further to 103 and 23/32, Fri., but, as I mentioned, we look for a S.T. top, now that so many insitutions have begun to love it, and hate stocks near their lows, as usual, dig ? the T-note falling to yield 5.30 % has yield-resistance around 5.75 % still, when and if, keep in mind....also interesting, in their continual illogical 'linking', reading more articles about supposed "credit crunch" developing for corporations and small businesses, as I previously reported first herein....they say the cost of borrowing for them is rising - yet, here the T-bond rate has been falling....how can this be ? call it 'Bank greed to cover their mistakes', dig ? nothing new there....next.... 3) once again I must point out, even with natural Gas futures new high, OUR oils and services stocks fell nicely for our puts, dig ? just as I have been teaching you....
4) note pops as expected in our Precious Metals stocks....you heard it here first, but, again, recall, I told you NOT to expect huge rises, just to resistance, which, as I said recently, is already happeneing, so not much upside left, dig ? ....5) Thu., with HAS breaking budding pattern, theyblame shortfalls on "the waning of the Pokemon thing"....yes, I was the first/only to give KIDE as a put from its top herein for you, and, yes, caught it once for a QLG long, but, recently, took a loss in KDE, so "Mr. 2 out of 3" strikes again....but recall I also gave you MAT long from lows correctly, and TOY from lows herein as well...so, it is more like, "Mr. 4 out of 5", Toy I.G.-wise....none look buyable here.... 6) as CNBC gal finally mentions how, supposedly, "the precipitous decline in Oil prices are helping Airline stocks pop", Fri. 8:40, recall who was, as usual, the first/only to give some out herein to you at recent lows, BEFORE any 'better fundamentals' were/are out, as you have been taught....UAL, AWA, HA, etc. (plus, I was first to give you the Rails at their lows, a while ago, herein, yes ?) are we good, or what ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) the ignorant emotional female CNBC reporter, after Tuesday's one-day rally, saying, Wed. 8:10, "JPM is up 6 points to 158....whoooo !" I am not kidding....amazing, and not a good message to give millions of viewers, huh....JPM, of course, fell below 146 almost immediately, dig ? ....2) as usual, CNBC had pres. of CIEN on, Thu. 8 am, only after huge rise from $ 6. to 145, recently around 98 still....super-bullish fundamentals, supposedly....you know what to look for from this stage, yes ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) saw a VG item in recent "Bottom Line Business" mag., saying, REIT's will be allowed to own taxable subsidiaries that provide more services, potentially enhancing their competittiveness and income, without losing their tax-exempt status, under a law taking effect 1/1/01....as you know, we rarely 'link' fundamentals to future stock price moves, but this IS a L.T. positive few are aware of yet, dig ? ....2) once again, with COMS and NMSS further drops, we see yet more proof that NO company or stock escapes my "PSYCLE sm", nor is bulletproof....and more stocks which I was first to suggest as Puts herein near tops....
3) the author of new (late) book, "Can Japan compete ?", on CNBC, Wed. 12:54, spewed a ton of useless drivel, VERY late, against Japan's ability to do well in the future (where was he 10 years ago when I and others called for Japan's stock marklet tops, etc. ? don't get me started), given its inherent messed-up infrastructure and political crap....but made no germain predictions forward, and we never got his real, L.T. actual T.R., dig ? next....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) a few major B-firms just went bullish on some housing-related stocks, like the MAS which I gave you around 18, and had a 'fobd', but, as usual, I ask, where were they at the lows on those kinds of stocks, when I gave them out herein NEAR their lows ? the pattern never changes.... 2) the WSJ, on 5/11 and 8/3 and 11/9, showed the 15 biggest B-firms' research stock picks' T.R.'s, and only several had decent gains back one year (which includes a nice rally late in 1999, recall), with the rest way pverrated and losers.... interestingly, for the last 5 years, their +150 % to + 200 % general returns, were not really all that special, given the phenomenal rises in hundreds of Tech. stocks, yes ?
3) amazing, but usual: Thu., only after huge drop they never predicted nor protected their paying cutomers against, several B-firms finally lowered their ratings on SCNT, from 'buy all the way down', to 'neutral' - at $ 2. a share....geez.... 4) the one analyst in a major Wall St. B-firm (and, like me, got hate mail at that time, dig ?) who correctly warned of Semi. tops near their tops, is now bullish again, according to CNBC, Fri., neat.... 5) thanks for nothing, yet again: several big B-firms who loved them from at their highs, just finally lowered their opinions on: SAPE, SCNT, BAC, MOT....the pattern rarely changes....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) still more confirmation, as L.A.T. 12/5, headline, "GDP data shows Japan's economic growth slowing".....need I say more ? nope.... 2) via CNBC, assets of USA institutional investors tripled, since 1990, to $ 18.7 trillion, end of 1999 ....and those investors still control about 50 % of all equity holdings, same as back then, but up from 33 % in 1985, they said....MF's now account for 22.0 % of assets, up from 14.6 % back then, and insitutions use 58 % of their $ for equities, up from only 23 % of assets in stocks in 1990 (which sounds rather low to me, yes ?)....and MF's are now 13 % of equity markets, up from just 6 % in 1990....interestingly, L.I. co's. still own just 1 % of all stocks (which sounds low, yes ?), and Banks/Trust Co's. own about 7 %, also same as back then....which is a good thing, since those two institutions are notoriously terrible at managing money (don't get me started)....
3) boo hoo, to the So. Calif. Utils., SRE, EIX, PCG, whose greed has led to potential shortages in Elec. supplies and rates....recall, while on TV, how I was, as usual, the first to predict higher-than-normal temps in So. Calif. L.T., a couple of years ago, and, higher prices for Nat. gas and Electricity....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
all calls INKT (23+ to 40) for VVVQ 300% G....at least 1/2 pos. calls CNXT (20 to 29-) for VVVQ 175% G....1/2 pos. calls NXTL (28+ to 35+) for VVVQ 100% G....1/2 pos. calls CYMI (20 to 25+) for VVVQ 100% G....1/2 pos. calls ADLAC (24++ to 31--) for VVVQ 125% G....pos. puts GUC (102 to 88+) for Q 50% G....
and/but, longs, MDS, CC, AMC, OPI, PLL ?, AII. ?, OCN ?, ALI. ?, DPH, 2nd pos. ZMBA, and, puts, STT, IPL, FNM, UNH ?, CEFT ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....I would not be surprised if our QSL's turn out to be fakeout breakouts, but we must conserve portfolio capital here hwre we can....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. ADLAC @ 24++, APCC @ 12 1/8, 1/2 pos. AWA @ 9+, 1/2 pos. CCC @ 5, 1/2 pos. CNS @ 8 5/8, EFII. ny, 1/2 pos. GSR @ 0.43, 1/2 pos. MLS @ 16++, 1/2 pos. PHC @ 18++, 1/2 pos. ROC @ 5.06, 1/2 pos. SGI. @ 3 5/8, 1/2 pos. TRAC @ 1-,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AII. no, AIR @
10+, AKS @ 9-, ALU @ 3 1/2, BGO @ 0.405, CEL @ 10+, CHB @ 3, CHINA @ 6 5/8, DR @ 12, DT @ 31+, ELNK @ 6 1/8, FON @ 22 3/4, FUN @ 18+, FRT @ 19, GEB @ 1.06, GY @ 7 5/8, HA @ 1 7/8, KRY @ 7/8, LGTO @ 9, LRW @ 2 7/8, LUB @ 4 3/8, MRBA @ 4 3/4, MU @ 30, N. @ 14, ODP @ 6 1/8, PKS @ 14+, PLL @ 18++ ?, RAD @ 2 1/2, REP @ 16, STK @ 8 5/8, SVRN @ 6++, UAL @ 35-, WCOM @ 15-...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, BLM ?, ACOM, HAS, OMX, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones):
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') AVE @ 79, CEFT @ 45+ ?, DUK @ 90-, FPL @ 66+, FRX @ 140-, HMA @ 22-, MRK @ 92++, PDII. @ 137+, UNH @ 120-,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, MBI, NEU,
and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put",
as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken
off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their
charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime
benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were
'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", COHU, MLG, SIL, RCL, MBWM, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, AZA, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks ....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
still more real nice pops for you, mostly Techs: INKT 41.06 up 12.18 (S), CNXT 28.93 up 6.18, ANAD 20 up 4, ADLAC 31- up 6 1/2, NXTL 35 5/8 up 7 3/8, BMG 1.75 up 0.34, PRGN 21.18 up 4.69, LRCX 18.68 up 3.09, STK 9 11/16 up 1 1/8, APCC 13.75 up 1.75, MRBA 5 1/4 up 9/16, AWA 10 5/8 up 1 5/8, BTO 8.31 up 0.69, SVRN 8 1/2 up 5/8, CYMI. 26.87 up 3.37, TSP 14 up 1 1/2, INCY 30 5/8 up 2 1/8, REY 19.92 up 1, VOD 38.68 up 1, UAL 37 3/4, ELNK 6 3/4, WSM 19.06, SUSQ 15 1/4 up 1, N. 15.61, BTO 8.18, HIB 12 1/4, ALU 3.93, DDR 12 3/4, DLM 8 1/2, DLX 24.09, higher, since last time here....and UIS 14 34/8, QCOM 101, even higher still....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
WCOM 15.93 up 1, PDG sos, HCM, ELNK 6 1/8 (B), INCY 27, GLT 12 1/2, FON (B), MU 31, 32, 30, 34-, CNXT 24+, 29, 27+, KM 5.93, TSO, CYMI. 22 1/2, 24, ANAD 17 1/2, 19 1/2, ATYT, HA, INCY 27 3/8, 29 1/2, CHB 3 (B), UAL 36 3/8, NXTL 30 3/4, APCC 12 3/4, PLL, LGTO 10.37, 9 (B), 9 3/4, FUN.... some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) AMAT 43, 44 1/2, 38.81, 43.81, NCI, AM, AII, STEI. 1.81, CHINA 6 5/8, KDE 8++, ALU, MRCH oy, WCOM, DT 33 1/2, ATYT 7 1/2, STK 8 1/2, 9., FMT 1 5/8 oy, REP 16-, RAD, OCN, ODP 6 1/8, 6.56, CVD 9 5/8,10 3/8, FON 22 11/16, BNP, F. 25, 23 1/2, PLL 18 1/2, ORB, VIXL, ZMBA 2 3/8....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
more nice drops for you: PDII. -35, AVE -5 1/2, HMA -3 3/8, MRK -2, XOM -2, GUC +3, -4, HCA, GIS, HMA, down/further since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (FRT, HCN, CWN, DDR, MLS, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, ARJ, TCO, FUN, CRO eh, HRP, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (F, DPH, AN, UAL, AWA, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (KLU, BMG, BGO, N, AKS, etc.)
Farm/Land/Fert., Aero./Def., Leisure/Travel/Toys (CCL, RCL, HAS), Housing-related, Industry Groups....
and, Online Brokers/Financials (XRX, SVRN, OCN ?, IFS)
and, Commun. (and 'long-distance stocks' ? MWL, CEL, PHI, DT, IIT, etc.), and, Chem. (EMN, CCC, ROH, DD, GY), also, Retail (KM, CNS, ODP),
Health-relateds (ALU, ALI)
and, of course, some of the 'busted Techs/Semis/Telecoms', as EVB's, just below....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not broken, before
you buy, if at all) added, (mostly busted Techs) TRAC, USIX, KLU, CA, CNC, PKX, STM, ABF, AWA, SFN ?, ROC, RWY, LUB, UNA, TNB, EFII, GILTF, SUSQ, XIRC, SYMC, ROC, GCR ?, GSR, KRY, to, STK ?, AMZN, BKC, PMD ?, REP, MRBA, TKR, FRT, GPC, HIB, APCC, CNS, RDRT, BANR, CHRS, SIL, MXR, MTZ, ITT, LOR, GT, PKS, ANAD, LDG, LRCX, CELL, FBN, CHB, HRP, IN, PER, COHU, BMG, AIR, FBN, LZB, DT, CDO, SRR, AEN, CSDS, NCI, STSA, LOJN, LEA, JCP, PHC, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, NHR,
MLS ?, JDN....close stops again....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, AZA, AVE, HMA, FPL, IDPH, NTRS, PDII, AMRI, CERN, EXBD, NTRS, APH, FRE ?, CMX, BA, XL, CLX, PGR, FRX, GIS, MRK, MTB, CAH, RKH, RDA ?, FVB, CPL, MNY, PPL, SPC, DA, CTIC, DUK, HP, HCA, to,
(repeats) DFXI, ELF, ESRX, COF, MANH, FPC, EPG, IMPH, IMGN, OSIP, CGP, MRX, BLDP, PLXS, from recent past NL's....again, note smaller list....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Utilities, Insur./Mtg., Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES