Jim Goodman's "PSYCLE sm"

Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification and proof of the value of my output and concepts to others), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me....
dated: 11:00 am, PST, Monday, Dec. 10, 2001

"2001: a Trading Odessey"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to the too-often at least semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

well, 200 DMA's beckon, for many already-risen stocks and indexes....meanwhile, our still-buyable list shrinks, as always happensa after a hot period - but do not ignore those still on the list....nor the Puttables list, which is, of course, likely to continue growing, even as more of our longs rise further....thus, our 'split' market continues....

and after viewing 2,500 charts over weekend, all I could keep asking, wanting to share it with the investing world to aid them, was/is, "can no one else see the probably over 1,00 individual stocks who are up against resistance here, as only I expected when calling the 9/21 lows ?

Uh oh, hearing everyone on CNBC talk about how "floor traders and brokers are becoming much, much, more optimistic", and you know what THAT means, for rallied/extended issues, as I have intimated most recently....plus, finally, something good from the perma-bear B> Schaeffer people, Fri. am, citing the last 3 recent times the QQV volitility index (covered here a few times previously as a potential indicator), fell below the 40 level, and each previous time the QQQ fell for a little while, -5 % to -15 % in the next 5-10-15 sessions....so our Puttables should be OK, for a little while - but then - and this is important - all marked nice longside buy points at support, as I mentioned to you back this past Spring/Summer, and I expect to be buying more for another pop again after current pb's peter out ahead, dig ? don't miss 'em....

meanwhile, we are getting some gains among Puttables, again, don't miss 'em, either....note growing list of puttables....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) s ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) ?

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) amazing: heard ridiculous treatise by yet another CNBC ignorant reporter, Mon. 10 am, asking if "stock market valuations are still too high?", which, of course, not only did we never hear from them all the way down 1999-2001, we never heard how cheap things were after 9/20, right ? anyway, 'valuations' and a ny fundamentrals are useless, as per my Booklets, re-read them....but this guy having said that, here, is a good L.T. bullish indicator, after pb's ahead, sentiment-wise, yes ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) well, B. Schaeffer's unsolicited daily missives to me, have pretty sparse content, continuing to argue for imminent demise of stocks prices....questioning it all the way up, as normal for 'the 95 %'.... 2) I find it interesting, as you have been taught, that no 'sell' opinions exist, still, on HAL, even from $ 55....but, worse, B. Schaeffer, who gets more disappointing over time it seems, 'explained how obvious it was that HAL had to fall", yet they never even remotely recommended such a position all the way down....so of what good is that now ? see, the pattern rarely changes....

3) more cautionary stuff, as that 'BullMarket' NL, said all sorts of fundamental announcements of supposed 'growth and/or improvement' inm sentiment and economic and retail sales figures lately, is, "great news" pointning to higher stock prices forever", dig ? uh oh, S.T. anyway, among extended/rallied stocks....

e) more general, political, misreported items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:

still more quick, large % Gains, 9 more Longs (plus several 'balances'), and, 1 more Puts:
bal. stk.on.mgn. CCBL (6++ to 13+) for L.T. 200% Gain....bal. calls AVX (16+ to 24+) for L.T. 175% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. PXLW (10 to 18+) for Q 160% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. JNIC (6+ to 11+) for L.T. 150% G....1/2 pos. (bal. ?) calls DIS (17+ to 23+) for 133% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. GSPN 10+ to 15+) for L.T. 90% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. ORG (4.0 to 5.8) for VQ 55% G....1/2 pos. calls CLTK (11+ to 14+) for L.T. 100% G....1/2 pos. sk.on.mgn. AETH (6+ to 9+) for L.T. 75% G....1/2 pos. calls SWC (14. to 17++) for VQ 90% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. CPQ (8+ to 11+) for Q 70% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. DTPI. (10 to 14-) for Q 75% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. VVTV (12+ to 17+) for Q 80% G....1/2 pos. calls CSGS (30+ to 35++) for VVQ 60% G....1/2 pos. stock CLRS (3.2 to 4.7) for VVQ 50% G....1/2 pos. puts FRE (70+ to 64+) for Q 33% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. SBGI (7+ to 9+) for VVQ 50% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. STXN (5+ to 8) for VQ 80% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. PCTI (7 to 9+) for VQ 66% G....

and/but, longs, FORR (16 + to 20+), RRI (16 to 19 to 16), DCEL, and, puts, PGR, AMG !?, RWT ?, IBC ?, RMD ?, WMT ny ?, AMG ?!, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs): **** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/2 pos. VLCCF @ 15+,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): 1/2 pos. KM @ 6-, 1/3 pos. TSS @ 19, 1/2 pos. SRP @ 14, 1/3 pos. NTT @ 18++ ?, ACPW @ 5+, 1/2 pos. DPL @ 23+, 1/2 pos. TE ?, 1/2 pos. TEO @ 6-, 1/2 pos. CEI @ 17, ACLA @ 4+, DUK @ 35+, GEG @ 14, 1/3 pos. ABY @ 6+, 1/3 pos. CVAS @ 5+, 1/3 pos. PRM @ 2, 1/3 pos. CHRS @ 4.55, 1/3 pos. RRC @ 4-, TG @ 16+, AVGN @ 9+, TCC @ 9+, VRA @ 1.2, UTHR, WFII. @ 5+...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, BPUR, CPN, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
I try to give them alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. MMC @ 110+, 1/2 pos. S @ 46+, SKYF @ 20+ ny ?, 1/2 pos. ABS @ 34, 1/3 pos. ACS @ 95, APOL ny, XL @ 94+, 1/3 pos. TRPS @ 21+, 1/2 pos. KRI. @ 63, 1/2 pos. IBC @ no ?, 1/3 pos. ISIL @ 40, 1/3 pos. DBD @ 40, 1/2 pos. ACV @ 46+, 1/2 pos. ACE @ 40, 1/2 pos. BAC @ 65, 1/2 pos. IFF @ 31+, 1/2 pos. WMT @ 56+ no ?, 1/2 pos. FTN @ 36++, 1/3 pos. SLM @ 87+, 1/3 pos. HRB @ 41, 1/3 pos. HD @ 50, EW @ 26, 1/2 pos. ITT @ 51+, and, the QQQ @ 43++, 1/2 pos. PG @ 77+, EC @ 28 ?, UB @ 38 ?, CFBX @ 26 ?, PFGC @ 34++, WBSN @ 28+, but VCI., MIMS, no, not bt. puts

"Repeats": AOT @ 25+, 1/2 pos. DRI. @ 32+, ASBC @ 36-, DF @ 46+, 1/2 pos. MAA @ 26 ?, 1/2 pos. PHC @ 35, FBC @ 25-, DL @ 18-, 1/2 pos. GCI. @ 69++, 1/2 pos. ICBC @ 24+, 1/2 pos. FISV @ 41, UDR @ 14+, WMT @ 55++,

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, MI, MIMS, SYMC, VCI, PENN, EMIS ?, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", CPST, IN, CNH, SNV, SCI, TLK, NXTV, KCP, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, COST ?, MSCC, FDO, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....
4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):
(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).

acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the pattern:
many more big winners for you, you're welcome:
PXLW 19 up 3 (S), SBGI. 9.13 up 1.21, AETH 9.41 up 0.81, VRSN 43.59 up 3.67, AVGN 10.95 up 1.00, PHI. 8.19 up 0.53, PCTI. 9.70 up 0.65, JNIC 11.40 up 1 (S), KFY 10.75 up 0.95, NT 9.05, CEI. 18.24, SWC 17.66 up 0.80, DPL 24.15, NTK 24.26 up 0.96, ORG 5.89, WFII. 6.54, FORR 20.52, SRP 14.65, TCC 10.18, TIE 3.47, AYE 36.00, WCOM 16.06, RRC 4.48, TWAV 14.19, CCRT 8.82 (sos), ABY 7 3/4, MICC 12, up/higher since last NL here....and, ET 11, CAL 26, CSCO 22, CVG 38+, UIS 13, GM 53, NITE 13, even higher still....

while, AMD, SLR, SGP, MAR, LIN, MU, SV, BWS, GM, HSII, FORR, NUAN, PXLW, SQNM, IWOV, HLTH, ZIGO, approach/hit their 200 DMA....and, as suspected, MRD, MPH, WDC, PCLE, RHAT, ALXN, were 'fobd's....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and/or more Bounces after pullbacks:
almost every stock out there, dig ?, and, DUK 37, 34.46, 35.59, DSS 10.30 msf, ACLA 4.97 pb, CLRS 4.30 pb, AVGN 10.29, PCTI. 9.1....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....

and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:

(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?)
HAL 13, dn 7+ ?!, TEO 5.70 (B), 6.15, GEG 14.20 (bopb), ANEN 18 dn 1, TG, TE 25.94, FMC, WFII., LNUX 3.43 up, KANA, FSII. 9.45 up, UTHR, HMT, TSS 19.00 dn, VVTV, ORG, FON 19.70, NTT 18.77, CLTK, CHINA, STXN, UAL (sos), FMC, VSH, and most all Techs and rallied stocks, and those listed in sec. (3) last time above, must follow-through up further....above their bases and resistance highs of this week....and/or, above their previously-broken-below-before-sept. 11th-levels....
....
5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:
Puttables specifically given you herein, which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:
ISIL -3, MMC -4 1/2, QQQ -2 1/2, FRE -2 1/2, XL -2 1/2, RMD -2, SYK -2 1/2, SLM -2 5/8, ACE -2, KRI. -1 3/4, EW -1 1/2, DBD -1, ITT -1 3/4, IFF -1 1/4, HD -1 1/2, SPH -1 1/8, TRPS, lower, some further, since last NL here....while, ATRX fell towards its 200 DMA....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
: RE -1 3/4, RJR, WMT -1 1/2, AMN (S) ?, APPB (S) ?, ROST, ASBC, RMD +1 1/2, SLM +1 1/4, FRE +2, RWT, PHC, BAC -1, AMG 74, 72 (S) ?, IFF, AOT, DF, ACS +1 1/2, FISV, MO....and, ware/were, WMT, IDPH, RMD, FO, APU, KMX, THQI, more 'fobo's ? this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?

some Depressed: Utilities, Entertainment/Leisure, Retail/Apparel, Cable, Brokers, Foreign depr. stocks, Agriculture-oriented, Golds, Telecom, Steel, to, Depressed Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative Energy, Ind. Groups...and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note, obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read sec. (1) above), added these:
AOL, SSK, GX, CCR, GSB, MRK, SNV, BTY, CTS, MIR, RT, PNW, PSD, PEG ?, SFY, TM, WR, CI. ?, D. ?, EX, CCR, NOI. ?, KO ?, CBI. ?, PLUG, PRCS,SIPX, to, PVN, BTY, ITP, NTT, REP, FST ?, TSS, AMRI, NGEN, EPNY, GERN, SCMR, VSAT, SGEN, ARNA ?, ITWO ?, DTHK, STLD, to, MFDE, HYSQ, CEI, APW, SLR, SRR opb, CALP, CSGS, CPST, NNDS, PFGI, SNDK, NUAN, GX ?, GPS, TQNT, VLCCF, KEYN, ALL, ZIXI, SBGI, NTK, TFS, SGR, CNH, FWC, TCC, MCD, as EVB's or bases....

and, some Energy/Alt./Svcs.: PGO opbo, BR, FCEL, RRC, PDE, KERX, CPN, ACPW, NE, VTS, DVN, PLUG, etc.
some Biotechs and health-relateds: ACLA, AVGN, UTHR, HBIO, BCGI, SGP, SCOR, OSTE, DMN,
among Telecom-Net-Commun.-orienteds: AOL, PACW, CLRS, T, TIE, WFII, AOL, TEO ?, BLS, VRSN, MICC, GX,
among Semi.-orienteds: FSII, UTEK, SNDK, TQNT,
retail/apparel/shoes: CASY, CTHR, CHRS, GPS, KM,
Utils.: DPL, TE, SRP, DUK, AYE,
precious metals: SWC, ABX, SLGLF, NEM, PDG, HGMCY, ABX opbo,
and, some more Foreign Telecoms, and more, soon ?
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been recently Removed, now slightly smaller list even here:

* added, ADRX, AMGN, IDPH, ZRAN, WBSN, PFGC, EC, IWV, IVV, MMM, LIZ, PCL ?, THC, SFG, RCI, to, HD, KKD, WMT, ACS, MMC, PG, XL, S, BLL, HRB, AN ?, APOL ny, EMIS no, FMBI, TRPS, SMTC, ISIL, to, PCSA, CERN, ICBC, COST, BBY, DL, BAC, IFF, PSA, ACV, IBC no ?, ITT, GCI, FBC, DBD, FISV ?, IMCL ?, FTN, STW ?, SLM, SKYF, DF, SYK, UDR ?, BCS, FDC, RWT ?, TOO, APPB no, MATR, FBC, SPH, NHP, MAA, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: added, extended Building/Residential/Commerical-relateds, and maybe Chem. soon, to,
Extended: Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Pollution-related, Aero./Def., Funeral, "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Disc. Retail Chains, Insur. brokers/Banks/Mtg./Loans, Construction/Electrical, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, Elec., Security, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES