Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
issue # 54, dated: 10:30 am, P.S.T., Thursday, Dec. 10, 1998


I have added a plethora of stocks below....continuing to illustrate how "SPLIT" this market is, and how many stocks are bottoming, and topping, simultaneously....Online, it takes me maybe 10-15 minutes to quickly, briefly VIEW the stocks I wish, first, from in section (3), for instance, then, sec. (6) and (7) if desired....obviously, narrowing your search to those issues which have your price/quality requirements, helps eliminate many, i.e., not doing any puts, or not wishing to even consider any real cheap stocks, or only doing options, or margin, eliminates large portions of my stocks shared herein....saving you time....note, I also am re-running the "7 stages of my PSYCLE" sequence, again, in section (8) below....began it, with 10/7 NL....

(note: I have shorterned section 1 and 2 a lot....I am assuming you have completely read and digested what was there, from from the last few NL's....) If you are a "NEWER" Subscriber, please take the time to read ALL of the "wordy" parts of the NL, once or twice, anyway... If you are an "OLDER" Subscriber, of course, feel free to SKIP, to those NL sections you wish to glean your info. from. (Save all my CUMULATIVE letters, for future reference/educational learning/help)

*** If you are pressed for time, read section (2) to develop a "feel" for our Sentiment patterns--- and Section (3) always, while viewing the CHARTS....each NL tends to run about 10-12 pages, printed out....So much valuable info. in one place. Also, Obviously, when "more, or fewer" longs, or puts, are given herein, that also tells us more about "the internals, and likely future direction of the market", yes ? And, please, neither expect ME to stay "super hot" nor "super cold" forever. (and a helpful, quick "PSYCLE sm" note: obviously, "S.T." herein, means "short-term", i.e., weeks, and "L.T." means "long-term", i.e., months)

If you are not "already long" in the long/puts stocks listed, especially in sections (4) and (5), you may feel like ignoring some of the sections below--- feel free to do so--- but it is much better if you take the time to check ALL stocks mentioned herein....you can (and are expected to) also refer back to "the Guide" and my Booklets, for more info./rules, so I don't have to keep mentioning "basics" herein, that you should already know about....The process will become second nature to you quickly: buying longs, and/or puts, with close stops, diversifying, etc. Most, from Section (3), first....Some people ARE spending 2-4-6 hours a week with my NL's, others just 30-45 min. a week....I provide differing types of stocks and ranges, for differing situations/needs, types of investors/traders, to provide the most pertinent info., thorough choices,and proper DIVERSIFICATION....so, Learn first--- then put into practice, the long-existing, highly-reliable, repeating "patterns" I teach to recognize.

I assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo...I cannot infer my future performance will always match my past track record, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "view" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, stops, resistance/support.

Assuming you are already knowledgeable about all "PSYCLE sm" tenets, and/or just want the most current "actionable" stocks, view stocks from Section (3) first --- then also, from within sections (6) and (7)....you are expected to know/see when those set up properly, also "Industry Group Rotation", always cutting losses when they break their patterns. Then, read Section (2) for "How (Not) to Use Media/Finl. Commentary, from a Psycle p.o.v."....After reading a few NL's, you will already be aware of most stocks from the/our recent past....This simple process should be labor of enjoyable fulfillment and learning, and not a chore, dig ? I give you a lot; whether you use it or not is up to you....Last, "follow-ups" of assumed Hypothetically already Long and Put ideas, are in sections (4) and (5)....of course, if you want to get the most, for the least, read everything....Reading my output can make you a lot more money than the time spent reading most papers, magazines, novels, other NL's, watching TV, etc.

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
New Commentary: Although you know we NEVER try to "predict Indexes/averages/the market", here are my most Current "Market" Comments:

**** We still have quite a "Split" market, as we get, 1) real breakouts, fakeout breakouts, and 3 types of tops forming, among higher-priced, bigger-named, extended issues, and others which have only popped up towards their still-falling 200 DMA's resistance, becoming more "PSYCLE sm" Puttables....With, 2) some still-depressed-and-not-yet-bounced Longside ideas added, some as EVB's, and others which are pulling back from their initial bounces off their Sept./Oct. lows I gave you herein....Adding more Puts, as I am seeing more double-tops, and "hook EVT's" and stocks hitting resistance levels after bounces up from the Fall lows (hey, that's a pun....Fall lows....hah). I am still Not crazy for the extended stocks here....In the same way we expect tax-loss selling to abate, leading to pops in our depressed stocks, I am ALSO the first/only to suggest tax-gain selling to cause corrections in many of our extended stocks, dig ? Note how many extendeds are NOT following through on the upside, and see the obvious potential double-tops in most general Indexes, themselves, here....

We will also likely have to lengthen our expected holding period a bit, from here, on newer Long buys....No sweat, as recent gains have been quicker than we normally would expect anyway....I have been telling you recently, NOT to ignore the Put-side here, with close stops, even given some Q, S losses there recently, which have, BTW, been overcome by Puts Gains, notice....

* TIP: I am pretty Comprehensive/Thorough, herein: There are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed herein: a) Stocks that can be ACTED on, here/now, if still right near given prices in recent section (3)'s ....b) Stocks which, if they get back to the price where/when they were originally suggested, remain/become tradeable again, and/or, which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and then might also illustrate "Industry Groups" potentially shaping up, and/or as Educational ideas, for YOUR benefit, in sections (6) and (7).... and, c) already assumed Long stocks, and/or puts, which are rising/falling, and are not buys/puts any more, but just "holds" or "underperformers", in sections (4) and (5)....All previous ideas are followed up, till "sold" or "removed from lists". Call me if you need some places to get charts on the web....Learn the staged Chart patterns, then add my "Media/Sentiment/Psychological" patterns, and voila....


Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3). And note, the "learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2).

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) Notes: 1) note the new Y2K stocks added in sec. (6) below (thanks to subscriber K.W.), see their depressed bases ? ....2) the cash commodity chart of Silver shows a potential double-bottom, and Gold held and popped a bit, where it should have, but both need more work, technically, still....NOT gorgeous, yet.... 3) note the weakness in many of the Health/Med./ Drug stocks that I was, again, the first/only to give as Puts near recent highs ....also, a bunch of blue chips are not breaking out....but only, as before, only a small number of "high-priced techs" are breaking out.... 4) also, see how our Food/Bev. stocks are falling, as I was, again, the first/only to give herein near their highs, as Puts, when Wall St. was loving them, as "defensive/safer", as usual....

5) also see, some of our Utilities puttables, falling....I may, again, be the first/only to have given them as such, here for you....as taught in my "Downside" booklet, options on Utils. tend to be the cheapest, dollar-for-dollar, because they are perceived (often incorrectly) as somehow "not volatile/sexy" enough.... well, our logical UN-emotional mind tells us, everything is relative, yes ? WE like Utils. for options, at times, because we do NOT need much movement in their stocks in the desired direction, to create large % gains in Options held on thenm, right ? Are you learning valuable tidbits like this ? ....6) I told you all the extended Airlines were up against resistance....and, while AMR and others fall, interestingly, the one Airline I gave you herein Long, near its base Low, TWA, is Up nicely....as I teach, different types of stocks in the same Ind. Grp., can move INDEPENDENTLY of each other, when they are in different stages, chart-pattern-wise

b) 1) Dec. 14 issue, Business Week: article, "a penny earned is a penny fudged ?", mentioned a "PSYCLE sm" tenet I teach in my "Media" and "scenarios" booklets--- that, during rough times, because ALL fundamentals are "made up" by accountants, and are totally subjective, etc., and can be anything they wish to tell us, right ?, more companies are announcing eps of "a penny" per share, rather than having show a loss, dig ? Gosh, how defensive behavior is that, PSY-cholgically ? Anyway, as BW says, many companies "stretch the rules to show a profit-- even if it's only a penny a share"....Gee, that makes many PE ratios almost infinitely high, yes ? Showing why PE"s are of little or NO "D.U.F.P.P. value", yes ? re-read my booklets.... 2) Interestingly, since I have possibly called the Top in Internet stocks, BW's 12/14 issue, HAD, indeed, AMZN, as its "super-positive cover story"....'nuff said.... 3) another story in that issue, was titled, "OUCH ! Y2K, the bill keeps growing"....4)

c) more incorrect/improper, misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/ companies", etc., vs. illogical/contrary stock prices moves, etc.: 1) analyst from Schroeder & Co., actually said, "trying to buy depressed stocks for the supposed "jan. effect" is very risky,m such issues have lower liquitidty, and " ....can you believe that ? a perfect Endorsement, from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v., yes ? ....2) Tue. 8th, 11:20 am, cnbc's Joe kernan, showed a 4-yr. chart of AMAT --- already up from where I gave it to you herein, as usual, and then Mark Haynes commented, "I used to follow that stock, when it was over $ 40. the last time" ....get it ? He used to follow the "semis", ONLY when they were ALREADY way up, the last time, and now, it is mentioned only again anew, AFTER it is way up, again....get it ? ....both time, late, as taught in my Media, and Scenarios, booklets....for the umpteenth time, learn, that most all people only let info. into their brains after rises/falls, NOT before they occur....3) Wed. 9th, 8:50 am, cnbc's Bill Griffith actually announced, "we may have some rumors about possible news"....I am not kidding....that's a quote.... 4) Tue. 9th, 10:45 am, cnbc's real bullish, super-positive report on (quote) "the company all of Wall St. says is the best business model around", NSOL, is now 96-....(quote) "analysts LOVE this stock, and have raised their estimates twice recently, especially at Paine Webber and H & Q" ....the kind of late stage 4 message that often provides a "PSYCLE sm" potential S.T. top signal ? We'll be watching for that, on/into strength, ahead....Not a formal recommendation, just for education sake....5) Mon. 7th, several Energy companies announce lower earnings--- as their stocks bottom S.T., and pop....get it ? ....6) Mindspring, one of our Puttables, announced a 'secondary offering", which, historically, "PSYCLE-wise", is just another way (splits being another) for corporate insiders to sell their stock near highs, more easily, to late-buyers-who-only-buy-high-relative-strength-and-or-good-news, yes ?

d) more late, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) B-firm analysts at Hambricht, just raised RDRT from a hold, to a new buy, at $ 15, up from the 6+ area, where I gave it to you herein .... 2) cnbc, Tue. 8th, 11:10 am, had Ralph Acampora on again (why ?), and their discussion pointed out, yet again, how much of a useless waste of time and resources, trying to predict "indexes/averages" themselves, is, and has always been.... 3) 12/8, khwy-tv, Joe Granville must be getting my NL again, as he has tempered his previously correct bullishness, from late Sept., saying he is taking some chips off the table.... 4) and, as I pointed out earlier herein, the McLellan Summation Index is indeed forming a similar rolling-over top, as it did, in July, and March, dig ? ....5) saw a chart of the NYSE's A/D line itself, and, guess what ? It also shows rising up to its 200 DMA, after breaking from July, as well....

As you have seen the last several months, how much better one does, just "doing" the best individual stocks, technically/sentiment-wise, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless info., anyway, and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
 Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period.... VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period) also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2" sale....ans, "css" means "covered short sale", where no puts options existed....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when originally recommended herein, to the price where very rently Hypothetically "sold"):
bal. stk.on.mgn. ANET (5++ to 14) for 175% Gain....puts SGY (36+ to 25+) for Q % Gain....1/3 pos. puts EBAY (217- to 170-) for VQ % Gain....bal. puts PIXR (52 to 40) for VQ 150% G....bal. calls CTB (16- to 20-) for 125% G....bal. calls NLC (28+ to 34) for Q 111 % G....1/2 pos. puts GAS (44+ to 41) for VQ 100% G....puts ELN (71- to 58) for Q 125% G....1/2 pos. puts SUT (48 to 38) for Q 125% G....bal. puts AVP (43- to 35+) for Q 111% G....puts ASGN (38+ to 32-) for Q 90% G....1/2 pos. puts GD (61+ to 55+) for Q 80% G....puts PDG (17- to 14-) for VQ 100% G....puts ABX (22 to 18+) for VQ 100% G....stock VOX (4- to 6+) for 60% G.... puts ACCS, for VVQ, small G....and, puts, BOBJY, ACCOB, NETA, BRCM, BSYS, TSFW, INTU, PVN, CBC, CAH, and longs, BTGC, GHV, PIN, BCP, PFG, for VQ, very small losses....Recent sales have "cleaned up/removed" many positions for us....larger % Puts Gains, more than overcoming smaller % Puts losses....but too many QS losses lately, anyway....Remember, a few real small Q losses will never hurt us much, financially nor psychologically, in the long run....cutting Q, S losses will also keep us in the game, for the larger gains that follow....hey, I am upset with "any" losses....and no amount of Gains satisfy....While I always show all Hypothetical losses, less than a handful of subscribers have said they have actually had more than a few Puts losses, since I began early June, so this sometimes looks worse on paper than in reality.

It is also nice to see so many of my previously-given long-side Winners, have pulled back/corrected since we 'sold' them herein for you....and we also accept that some "whipsaws" may occur with our Energy issues here, cutting losses, then some revalidate....but those we 'sold' still should have been sold.

NOTE: while all the $ under 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We just prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for so short a time period, yes ?

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right near these prices only:
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/ available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs): (note: If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables", long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a " + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-, means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....


**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, many more/new names here):
(new ones) CMND @ 2 13/16, ACLY @ 3 1/2, IAIC @ 1 3/16, PAIR @ 7+, FNL @ 5+, PRGO @ 8 7/16, ICA @ 4 5/8, VTS @ 14, MWY @ 10, MMG @ 3 1/2, NDE @ 9+, FCX @ 11, (repeats) ATX/A @ 5 9/16, PSFT @ 19+, ELCO @ 1 3/4, NBTY @ 5 13/16, MRVC @ 6 7/16, BS @ 7 11/16, MPS @ 11++, TMA @ 8, SGE @ 10+, PHYC @ 5+, FTR @ 13-, SOC @ 6, BHI. @ 17, IO. @ 7++, ICIX @ 17+, MAVK @ 5+, CHK @ 1.31, HXL @ 8+, IHSC @ 6, GLDR @ 1.03, LPX @ 16++, WEL @ 2 1/8, CMO @ 3, BEV @ 5 13/16, UPX @ 2.06, AZC @ 0.57, AEC @ 12+, KRY @ 0.44, HBI. @ 5 3/8, IPIC @ 3.06, MSN @ 0.41, VGZ @ 3/16, TOX @ 3/16, SSC @ 11/16, IIR @ 3 1/2, WLM @ 11+, FEN @ 3 7/16, LTV @ 5 5/16, BST @ 16+, CAU @ 0.31, RYO @ 5/8, NGX @ 7/16, Z. @ 6 5/8.... most are still EVB's...."buy low", right ? Note, we are revisiting some "previously given/traded" issues....and, more importantly, that, now, AFTER recent rises, most "new buys" are real cheapies, and/or "laggards" with less "sexiness", dig ? What does THAT tell you ? also see the "just missed" issues, below...

NOTE: as I teach in the "green Guide" Booklet, you should already understand, that, very often, there is NOT "just one day" when my ideas become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/ fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....

*** remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! This is covered in "the Guide" and herein, endless times.... "just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media patterns.

** Important: took, OMPT, LDRY, TRP, WTT, BGO, --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows....also recall the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS", for potential Drops: (new ones) 1/2 pos. AMZN @ 222-, RMBS @ 101+, SFXE @ 51, UNPH @ 62-, BGEN @ 84+, LBTYA @ 42-, MFNX @ 60, QWST @ 44-, LOW @ 46++, CTXS @ 88, DELL @ 68+, AEOS @ 59, BBC @ 32+, NIS @ 34
(repeats) XCIT @ 56, MSPG @ 71, RCGI. @ 29+, VNWK @ 36++, NETA @ 52-, GEOC @ 29, MSBC @ 45, CBUK @ 30, ISCA @ 36-, INTU @ 65, LFG @ 61+, FDO @ 20+, MDT @ 70++, ASO @ 44, CMA @ 68, BRCM @ 95, METZ @ 43-, PRGN @ 39+, CBUK @ 29+, FAM @ 44+, PPDI. @ 28++, CCIL @ 64+, ECL @ 32+, CG @ 59+, PE @ 41++, RMBS @ 101, XRX @ 112+, TYC @ 69-....and/but, remember, I/we have NO "market scenario", ever, as you know.... and, note, too many minor breakouts all of a sudden, so am taking more real small, quick Puts losses above, and NOT fighting the tape....

and/but, Took, ASND, COST, VIA, CE, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's.

....and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", CBTSY, NPSI., IMRS, PGO, SPF, MKA, THP, MIR, FGI., IHS, NL, N., as Longs near very recent lows, and, DCTM, AMR, SCH, OMC, as Puts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this biz, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing such charts, also tells us, whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.


All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit ....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, and still remaining long in most of them, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy up here, up already, and/but acting O.K., so stay in these for now:

**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)

still giving you plenty of risers (note, these have always been listed, in order, from the biggest % moves, to the smallest important price moves): NOI. 11 1/2 up 3, MMG 4 5/8 up 1 1/4, MS 1 3/8 up 5/16, ULB 2 3/8 up 1/2, CMND 3 3/8 up 5/8, IPIC 3 3/4 up 7/8, TWA 6 5/8 up 1 5/8, MPN 5 1/2 up 7/8, PAIR 8 1/2 up 1 5/8, MPS 13 3/8 up 1 7/8, DX 5 1/2 up 5/8, FNL 5 5/8 up 5/8, Z. 7 3/4 up 1 1/4, MWY 11 1/2 up 1 5/8, RMDY 12 1/4 up 1 3/4, BEV 6 3/8 up 5/8, JOB 7 3/8 up 3/4, NDE 10 3/8 up 1 1/8, NE 14 1/4 up 1 1/4, TFT 7 3/8 up 3/4, VTS 15 up 1 1/4, ROP 19 3/4 up 2, MIKE 20 1/2 up 2 1/2, HP 18+ up 1 3/8, HBI. 6 up 1/2, NX 19 1/2 up 7/8, DO 25+ up 1, GCX 11 1/2 up 3/4, HAL 32 3/8 up 1 1/4, CBRL 24 1/2, CTB 19 3/4 (S), LPX 17 1/2, SHG 6 1/4, AAC 3 3/4, INPR 7-, WJ 20 1/2, up/further, since last time here....

also see, RDRT 15- up 4, TER 43+, IFMX 8-, SYBS, higher....and MKA, revalidated....

please appreciate, that I have subscribers who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....another, of mnay reaons why we are so against "day-trading": why anyone would limit one's potential, and increase one's stress, on purpose, is beyond illogic.
and/but, then, seeing many pullbacks, like, TGX 15 1/4 up 1 3/4, HMY 7 5/8 up 3/4, NOI. 10, RRC 4 1/8 up 3/4, TMA 8 5/8 up 3/4, FLC 10-, BHI., PCTL, CBRL, DO, NE, RMDY, SOC, ROP, MIKE, PHYC, CWC, ZAP, TXB, DBRSY, BUR, HOC, SRR, MLT, UNO, GLT, NR, CEI., PETC, TRMB, APFC, PCMS, IHSC, ADM, JBAK, HXL, MAVK, LTV, LWN, WEL, WIT, SUL, ELY, PDE, ATX/A, "Steels", PCMS, WLM, AXC, IHSC, GGC, TBI., NGX, SSC, MCN, DAY, CCH, WTS, WLV, RYO, UPX, IIR, WS, DX, NS, Z., Oil Svcs., pb (pulling back)....some of these are also in "ms" list below)

again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers.... Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues ....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T. gratification"

Note, growing list of "pb's" and "ms" issues....not a great sign.

* and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen,
and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(some of these are also in "pb" list above) BST 16 3/4 up 5/8, RDC 11, RRC 4 1/4, PSFT, IAIC, VOX, SSC, WGR, NR, LWN, MT, SOC, DHC, DX, MCN, FTR, DBRSY, PFG, PHYC, GLB, HBI., CEI., LTV, OLN, GGC, BEV, BST, CTI., VDC, GLM, MCL, TRMB, FEN, ATX/A, FLC, IKN, JBAK, TMA, MRVC, GRERF, WLM, ADM, TOX, CWC, WIT, BHI., HXL, AMLN, cheap Golds, all Energy/Svc./Expl., AAC, Steels, NGX, SSC, CMO, WKGP, DEN, ATV, VTO, WTS, WEL, ZAP, AZC, AXC, RYO, CAU, IIR, MS, Z.

hopefully, you viewed the charts of those issues listed here last tifew times, which had risen from "PSYCLE sm" bases/db's, towards their 200 DMA's, to see/learn the patterns....if not, go back to last NL here, and do so

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy puts on these now, but acting properly, stick around:
 Puttables specifically given you herein, which are Falling/further: RMBS -9, PG -6 1/2, PGR -6, UHS -5 1/2, ELN -4 1/2 (S), TXT -4 1/4, CTXS -4, AEOS -4, GD -4 (sow), AMZN -3 1/2, XRX -4, SFXE -3, AVP -2 3/4 (S), MFNX -2 3/4, CBUK -2 5/8, UNPH -3 1/2, BFO -2 3/4, JCOR -2 1/4, SUT -2 1/2 (sow), ITW -2 1/4, XCIT -2 3/8, HB -2 1/4, USTC -2, CCE -2, BRCM -1 1/2, ASGN -1 3/4 (S), PDG -1 1/2 (S), QWST -1 3/8, FAM -1 3/4, AEOS -1 1/2, LBTYA -1 1/4, CCIL -1 1/2, LOW -1 3/4, LFG -1 3/4, MDT -1 1/4, NIS -1 1/4, GEOC -1, MSBC -1, RCGI. -1, ISCA -1 1/4, COX -1, ABX -1 (S), EGR -1, BRG -1, BBC -1, DV -1, CG -1, PE -1, ACXM, FDO, PNY, PPL, down/further, just since last time here....and also see 'bouncers' below. Note, we were the first/only, to catch some Golds, and Medicals, as Puts, near their recent highs, for you here....

* Note, how I, again, am giving you some Puttable stocks which are Falling, as most of "the market", and especially high-priced, name, quality-type stocks, rise, again....that I am among the very few, giving out ANY profitable puts, since early Sept. (and tons more, from March, and from July through Oct.) should be enough, yes ?

Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit.... remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing....**** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....


* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): getting many intraday drops and bounces, EBAY -11, +11, MSPG -2, YHOO +14, XCIT +4, VOD +5, -2, CGX +3, INTU -1 1/2, SCUR -2, SNRZ -1, MYL +2, -2, FTEN -1, +1, JCOR, FTEN, PRGN, ACXM, ITWO, EFBI., TYC, EAT, TLC, MDT, LIN, ASO, PG +3, CQ, DV....See, many stocks, and Internets, must "follow-through", and break below recent lows, to warrant holding their Puts....


Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn from.

6) Now--- Here are Other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades, or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also, there may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times, right ? Of course, near the highs in March, and July, this list was much smaller, yes ? It is logical and expected, after the recent mini-crash, That there have been/are more "EVB's", yes ? Also, remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their lows, with stops for protection.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for Rotation":almost no great Bases here, just many decent EVB's and double-or-triple-bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: when there are more stocks listed in an I.G. here, that tells you I feel more strongly about that I.G., right ? Which, in turn, tells you a lot about how "the market" looks, sometimes....

Semis/Comp./Techs: please see "Techs", listed, in the "watching" section, just below.

new group, somewhat riskier, longer-term: (Y2K) "Year 2000": CMND, IMRS, UBIX, ACLY, IAIC, MIFGY, ZITL, some have long bases....
Prec.Metals (add, TKOCF, to, GLDR, KRY, GRERF, CCH, AZC, VGZ, RYO, SSC, DAY, CAU, all real cheapies, risky)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Paper) (add, FCX, to, FNL, BCP, WIT, WS, BS, TFT, NX)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (add, CNP/B, to, CHK, TDW, ATW, VTS, VPI., NE, HP, TBI., PGO, NOI., GLM, MLR, WGR, MAVK, FEN, MHR, KSF, RDC, WEL, WLM, IIR, VRC, PDE, BHI.), one of the best groups here, yes ?
Biotech/Health/Medical (PHYC, GNSA, VTS, TGX, LXR, MT, TOX, ULB, MGL, HIV, CCLR, IPIC, BDR, TOX, MPN, MS)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (PBY, SRR, SME, CBRL, PRD, BBA, BUR, KFI., MSN, OO, UNO, SGE, BLM, GCO, HBI., Z.)
Capital Goods (CWC, ROP, CTB, LDW, HPH, HXL)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (MIR, SER, JAMS, UDR)
Employment (OLS, JOB, MPS, RMDY, ESOL)
And, again, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E./REIT/Financials/ Mtg.-type stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends, may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, PFG, AAC, ALF, AEC, AML, AMMB, BNP, BOY, BRI., CBG, CPP, CMO, CRO, ENN, FBG, FCH, NDE, GLB, GRT, IMH, KPA, LTC, JPR, MAA, PMC, RFS, RWT, SIR, SPF, TMA, UDR, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)

NOTE: as I said above, ON BIGGER PULLBACKS ONLY, stocks like our Farm./Chem/Fert., Golds, and Techs, may set up as depressed buys again, down the road....as always, I will let you know at that time....have patience.

And, as I have been saying here, even though I have given you a ton of quick 50-100% gains, since Sep./Oct., do NOT expect as large rises off bottoms, as when I gave out similar "EVB" Techs, in the late '97/early '98 period (nor, from the late '95 to early '96 period....I was first/only to do so near their lows at those times), because there are NOT many "true bases" here--- just some with good EVB's ....we accept occasional Q, small losses in some longs, w/close stops, along the way....Also note that many already popping/popped stocks are due to pull back, soon, after their recent/initial "dead-cat bounces". This is normal, and welcome.

and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": LDRY, OMPT, TRP, WTT, BGO, --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off lows), as "EVB's", diversified, w/close stops....these, plus the stocks listed above, and the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above, comprise the "total" complete long-side buyable lists in today's market.

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: add, CEXP, WKGP, MWY, AAM, IMN, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, NPSI., PAIR, GDC, NOV, LYO, IHS, CMH, CS, VSNR, ICIX, OMPT, BTC, PCMS, SYNT, STRX, IHSC, PCR, CFS, CPU, ALN, SEW, CLCDF, AFCI., MLT, PSFT, LPX, BEZ, AGTX, JDAS, DHC, VDC, UPX, ZAP, CXI., ILX, TRMB, PCMS, ELCO, MRVC, LWN, BMC, CYI., ICA, IO., IV, IT, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls., Foreign, Health"), plus, the Value Line issues: NSANY, PRGO, DEMP, CEPH, GNSA, OFIS, BUNZ, SEW, TSA, MGN, COE)....some here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....

**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base" technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each, to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or rise, dig ?

7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?):

(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet) now, I add some more Puttables, again, after/into recent bounces:

Fuller, Potential Puts list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY, do NOT "chase down":

note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....
(banks/insur.) ZION, LFG, HIG, MLM, PGR, XRX, MSBC, ASO, CMA,
(comp./techs/s'ware) RMBS, ALSI., DELL, BSYS, PRGN, GEOC, NSIT, CTXS,
(retail) AEOS, LOW, NDN, ANF, FDO, LOW,
(telecom/commun.) CDRD, VNWK, LBTYA, QWST, MFNX, COX,
(medical/health/drug) UHS, EL, PGNS, MDT, UNPH, BGEN,
(food/bev.) PZZA, CCE, EAT,
(cap. goods) GE, CGX, TYC, JCI., GVA,
(utilities) NMK, NIS, PPL, METZ,
(others, misc.) MSPG, SFXE, GBLX, ISCA, OSI., CBUK, ECL,
also watching: AGPH, TROW, NEON, PPDI., AWS, RATL, PGNS, GBLX, NTLI., SBL, SCH, Advertising stocks, on/into/after strength, soon ?

the Best Puttable Industry Groups: still, Extended Banks, Health/Medical/ Drugs, Insurance, Finance, Computers, Retails, Internets, Aero./Def., Food/Bev., High-PE techs, all types of Tele.-Commun., in no particular order, as the most probable Puttables, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks.... Also, extended Biotechs may be beginning their top process....but Utilities are a real mixed bag, sorry....Some are breaking patterns, others still toppy.

Last, FYI, these "big-name OTC extendeds" all look the same here, as potential fakeout-breakouts, but I am not formally recommending them for Puts quite yet: CSCO, CPWR, MNMD, MSFT, SUNW, VISX, VRTS, INTC.

8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
Besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I promised I would re-run "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm"", so, starting 12/7, and for the next 7 NL's, here they are again: today, stage 2:

"PSYCLE sm" stage 2: "the initial rise/breakout, out of/above the base/above the double-bottom--- then the normal pullback": first, realize, that the stage 7/ stage 1 period can take weeks, or even months....after forming whatever base/EVB formed, mostly because of more and more holders refusing to sell down there, the majority of stocks will RISE, seemingly "from out of nowhere", with NO special, reported, "positive" news/fundamentals, etc....just as a simple 'supply/demand' dynamic....ALL stocks MUST have occasional bounces, each year, regardless of what is or is not happening to that company or I.G., a real key tenet of my "PSYCLE sm". What is important, are, a) where the initial upside resistance level is/might be (read last NL stage 1 explanation here), and, b) knowing that, in stage 2, there is usually a significant PULLBACK (PB), after that rise ends, often, back towards the depressed/base level !!!

this normal, usual PB, which declines at least 50 % off its sgate 2 high, frustrates/upsets the "johnny-come-late" buyers (and "buyers who only buy after/on breakouts", and never buy near the lows), who did not have the intelligence/ strength to have bought near the lows, into bad news, yes ? Once the "story/move" is out/recognized, "the 95 %" "just notice" the stock--- but it is already up a lot, dig ? Therefore, the late-buyers in stage 2, will buy, from the smart-buyers in stage 1, got it ? Very few stage 2 rises last very long, unless the previous base was a real long one....The stock often rises just enough in stage 2 to excite the masses (note how much of this is PSY-chological/sentiment-oriented), then the stock corrects back down....As I said last time here, The initial stage 2 bounce is often 50-100 % up from the lows....Stage 2 is designed to trap buyers who only buy "on better/good news, and/or higher relative strength" near its S.T. high, so that the low-buyers can sell to them. Viewed another way, if the stock was too low in the base, then, S.T., it becomes too high intially, and must PB again, to form a better launching pad for any potential rise into stage 3, later.

And, as I said before, "where" the stage 2 rise stops, is primarily a function of the characteristics of its preceeding chart pattern, right ? i.e., with, say, the Depressed semis/comp./techs, from their 1995, 96, 97, and 98 lows, their predicted rises fit stage 2, but, in most all cases, none rose the several hundred percent they did from their 1980's longer, more depressed bases, dig ? We have only had a plethora of phenomenal stage 1 bases, in modern history, from 1974, 1982, and, maybe, 1987 and 1990 lows, and/but very few, since....

oh, and one quickie note: remember, a true stage 2 rise, differs, from a stage 7, EVB rise....stage 2 has formed more of a base, and more time has passed since its stage 7 low....often, stage 7 lows, turn into stage 1 bases, as I said last NL here....95 % of the time, "PSYCLE sm" stages ARE sequential....

Keeping one's eye on the 200 DMA of any stock in a stage 2 rise, is one key... Now, there are 2 types of stage 2 rises: the rise off a longer base, or a double- bottom, and the rise off an EVB-type bottom....the "basing" stock might normally rise longer, and higher, but slower, while the EVB stock (which itself might be the bottom of a stage 2 PB, in it's "PSYCLE sm", dig ?) will normally have a quicker rise, which fizzles sooner....This should be obvious....Also, obviously, if that depressed stock had not fallen much before forming its depressed base, then it's likely stage 2 rise, may also be more muted....i.e., a stock that fell from 30, to 6, then formed a base, can rise more % in stage 2, than a stock that had fallen from, just, say, 18, to 10, before forming a stage 1 base....as you know, we prefer stocks that were Wall St. darlings, much higher, because more people will refuse to sell them, even when/as they have their stage 2 rise, dig ? Someone who paid 30, is less likely to take even 10, or 15, or even 20, on the way back up, in the stage 2 rise....they are waiting for 30 again....makes sense.... Hey, that's why "the PSYCLE sm" forms anyway, because it all starts with a big decline off a semi-parabolic rise, at which point few people sell down there, because they refuse to acknowledge their loss, PSY-chologically.

remember, stage 3, explained next time here, can occur, ONLY after the stage 2 PB....historically, the only rare exceptions have been, with stocks that have formed real, real, L.T. bases....like 3-4-5-year depressed bases....many of those have not had bigger, 50 % -plus PB's as they rose, over many years after, although, actually, many HAVE had nice PB's, in 1984, 1987, 1990, 1998, they did not PB immediately after their stage 2 rises. Remember, the complete 7- staged trip can occur over a multi-year time frame, or, over one or two years....Here in this NL, we are concerned primarily with the 1-2- year charts, maximum.

so, now you know the briefest basics of stages 1, and 2, in most all stock's "PSYCLE sm"....oh, and, remember, everyone's perspective differs: stage 1 can be viewed as, say, only a 1-2-month basing/bottoming period after a big drop, if you are a S.T. trader, and/or, a 3-6-9-month basing period, if you are a longer-term investor....and last, a bigger previous drop, will normally lead to a bigger % rise, off the EVB/base low, which, I guess, is obvious....Hey, you'd be surprised how few people, even pros, know about stage 1, at all....hope this helped.
As I have said here before, it is sometimes part of the 'saucer' bottom formation on many depressed stocks, that a "minor new low" be made, in the middle, or at the end, of the pattern.....This is done to "sucker/keep out", many holders/ buyers, so the smart money can get in (often, the market maker at the lows), at the best price....
IMPORTANT: people keep trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time.... just get close, and do everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my webpage and on the front of every Booklet.

As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.

Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/ logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.