1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Well, finally, that pot. s.t top in some indexes warrant exploitation, in my puttables, see below... .as U know, last Fall when I called the lows as few others did, I suggested NAZ target around 2 K and DJIA 10 K, both obvious round numbers, and, of course, recently, that's all that most of 'the 95 %' talk about....they are, of course, now too bullish, too late, as usual, in the "PSYCLE sm" pattern,. as usual....but, still, not too bearish, just normal pb's after expected rises to obvious resistance....but, as I said, I am surprised at very-recent bounces, when some Extendeds should be falling more....

according to BS, last week's VXO cboe volatility index fell to its lowest since 11/96 reading, meaning, to him, bearish....but, recall, he recently went bullish, yes ?, dgms....but at least he echoed my already-told-you-about 'fewer-highs' among 'new highs' indicator, which I suggest, as he does, is also s.t. bearish....hence still more puttables added below....take heed....

oh, and as if I had to remind you yet again, the large number of recent Puttables led to a plethora of Put Gainers 4 U, some 'missed herein', listed below, but which YOU could/should have caught, yes ?

and, for the umpteenth time, saw recent chart of the DJIA vs. the VXO volatility index, via 'wrongway bear since 2/03 Erlanger', and, amazinlg,y blowing the cover OFF the supposed-to-have-worked-the-exact-oppositely incorrectness of that 'sentiment indicator' (dgms), showed the indexes RISING consistently since the VXO was supposedly 'high and bearish at 40', while the VXO consistenyl FELL, to current supposed a.t. low around 16....EVERY one-way bear out there has gotten whacked, since 2/03, dig ? of course, YOU have had a PLETHORA of both, longside, and some Puts Gains, along with far fewer
always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) I did not expect the TNX 10-yr. t-bond yield to fall VQ, from 4.445 % to 4.187 % late last week, neat....and the TNX down to 5.033 % again....but then TNX yield back up to 4.373 %, still does not look vg, dig ? ....2) and kudos once again for me, the first & certainly only to dislike the extended Edcuation/Schools stocks near their loved-by-analysts-only-after-huge-unpredicted-by-them stock price rises-as-usual, highs....as the pattern repeats, as usual....supposed 'scandals' abound in their revenue reporting....well, duh....I say, 'hah'....next.... 3) oh, and, once again, aren't you glad you bt. all those high-yield ideas I have so wonderfully included in the last 1-2-3-years herein ?, even the c.e.m.f.'s are up recently, you're welcome....

4) yen up to 1.07+, Euro 1.216+, new 52-wk. highs vs. dollar, and the DXY made new low, lowest at 88.37, since 1/3/97....just fyi, its historical a.t. low in DXY was at 78.19 in 9/92.... 5) new recent Gold high just over $ 410., eh, highest since 2/96....gonna still have trouble at that 416+ area, watch for.... 6) and the bond bounced from 107 to 110.5 vq, unexpected by me....I now begin to see sideways-to-negative resistance in the bond after rally, up here, so selling into strength still ....7) one interesting item from 'love gold here forever' TDR, "there is over $ 20 K cash in dollar-based assets/securities existing, for every ounce of gold, worldwide'....meaning, he, says, gold is ridiculously undervalued, still.... 8) let me again be the first/only to add extended Semiconductor-relateds as Puttables around up here.... 9) also note recent big pb's among extended Airlines, even as 'their fuundamentals' improve....yeah, right....

10) oh, and I noted that eps estimates for AHC are being LOWERED a lot, how/why ?, if 'crude' 'must' go only up, forever forward, dig ?, yet, as expected crude oil rose to just over $ 32. again, helping our Oil Svc. calls Gains, ay ?, you're welcome.... 11) but a super-unpredicted-by-anyone-out-there , get this, +40 % rise in Nat. Gas price, in just the last week !, wow....to $ 6.88.... 12) read rare valuable unusual item from recent BS letter, that 'short interest on FOREIGN stock market indexes' has FALLEN a lot lately, after big, l.t. rises (which he does not mention, he did NOT predict, but I digress), anyway, normally, with bullish sentiment, such a (rare ?) development would normally portend LOWER future prices, right ?, we shall see.... 13) and another reason to have recently taken recent big Q longside calls Gains in Oil Svc. stks., 'thestreet.com' just rec'd. "energize your portfolio with energy calls options', get it ?, learning the patterns ?, if not, why not ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Govt., etc.:
1) l.t. bullish headline in 2 major pubs, "the tech bubble reloaded", and, "return of the tech bubble" - get it ? ....2) and, as happens every year, 'the 95 %' and 'experts' asking, "will there be a santa claus rally soon ?", when, in fact, we have already had it, get it ? ....3) is that M3 money supply actually DROPPING a bit ?, should not be happening in a 'growing economy', hmmmmm....would be bearish if so, watching.... 4) I read from a perma-bear that 'beef prices are at 24 year highs....as are insurance, property taxes, education, health care, renatal/housing, expenses'....is that true ? if so, and I kinda agree, makes your govt.'s CPI a joke, as I have said for years....

5) read a neat quote from TDR, who said, "hwho'd have thought that some day the USA would be totally dependent on the Chinese communists for the $ to buy our goods and drugs and fund our wars"....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) oy, the Institute of Suuply mgmt. index rose to highest level in over 2 years.... 2) and I laughed sarcastically when read recent BS tome by ever-bear Bill TDR Bonner, "the recession that wasn't".....gee, now, those idiots who predicted the end of the world incorrectly, years ago, are now saying there was no recession....while still predicting doom....and, saying we are in a recovery - but still predicting the end of the world....dgms.... 3) accoring to permabear TDR, "foreign holdins of US bonds rose to $ 1.05 trillion total recently, and they have been adding more $ weekly lately", as I mentioned herein....he wrote, 'you'd think that would have meant a HIGHER $, not making new lows, as it has been, ay ?'

4) and yet another ignorant statement by ever-bear TDR, recently, "if we didn't know better, we'd say a new inflationary trend is underway" - so, in other words, they can later 'say' they were correct either way, dig ?, shame on them.... 5) but first-time-but-small kudos to TDR's Bill Bonner, who, citing some ridiculous gold-stock-price rises, wrote, "don't forget to sell, some times"....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) in a rare display of potiential across-the-board contrariness coming (?), InvestorInsight just actually wrote, "there ois nothing on the horizon to prevent stocks, oil, gold, from keeping on rising, and the dollar, from falling"....wow....and people pay him for such drivel ? ....2) and read an amazing letter via TDR, saying, "the NAZ crash from 3 yrs. ago never really caused investors to go bearish....they simply viwed the sell-off as another buying opp." - uh, excuse me ?, are they kidding ?, just proves my concepts yet again....next....

3) amazingly (not) both Slowather and Investor Insight, again, pitch their '5 stealth stocks ready to explode" - months after giving the same (dgms) list out, before, with infrerior results....oy....

e) more general, political, misreported items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) still more proof lof all i have been teaching of value: a recent NASD survey of investors found, of course: less than 40 % knew that I.R.'s and bond prices moved opp. ea. other, 15 % thought if one bt. stock one had lent the co. money, only 21 % could identify a no-load MF, and 31 % thought it meant no fees whatsoever, and, staggeringly, 46 % thought the FDIC insured stock mkt. losses, yikes....only 35 % got even 7 out of 10 EZ questions correct....need I say more ? ....2) dgms, as the SEC finally decided that all daily MF trading be stopped right at 4 pm...."that will stop after-hours trading shenanigans', they said....well, duh....also, of course, they are going to ruin the MF ind. further with new investigations, rules, etc., hurting millions of people still....next....

3) the HSI. NL correctly mentioned how your govt. has announced that 'unpastuerized milk is a health hazard" - they posit: if unpasteurized mik is so bad for you, how come so few imbibers of said products, here, and all over the world, like, europe, scandanavian, etc., countries, have not been negativel;y affetced by such products for decades, nay, eons, to date ? - ans.: because it is harder for your govt. to profitize, tax, and regulate, get it ?

3) wish I knew 'the truth', but Sun. nite, Bill Wattenberg, one of the smartest guys on the planet 810 am KGO redio, read info from Iraq, citing GOOD things occuring/caused by our troops, like: more elec. power being generated in that country than B4 the war, more schools open, more canals and water going to more people, etc. May not sound like much, bt, given the crap the hate-everything-Media have been skewedly and nastily reporting....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....