1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) with RCL, CCL, TSG, FUN, PKS, CHB, etc., up, recall who was, as usual, the first/only to give Travel/Leisure stocks out from base lows herein for you.... 2) as more of the Reguonal Bank stocks I was first/only to give out herein from beautiful long bases lows, rise further, just remember how easy all this is at times, and how many people have unrealistic expectations/demands, and/or impatience about this whole process.... 3) and, of course, I was among the first few to give depr. Semis, Chip, etc. stocks, herein, right near recent lows for you....hope you got some....but, of interest, view TQNT, which, after a bounce, formed a triple-top, then tanked again, see it ? again, that's why, as you have been taught, you want to take the QLG, and not remain in hope for iunrealistic gains, especially in this market, dig ? and why we rec'd. you take many Q L % Gains at recent 'initial-bounce-highs'....
4) and, as usual, I will have been the first/only to have given out the depr. Telecom/Wireless stocks herein right from at their recent lows for you, popping nicely, ay ? so what else is new.... 5) watch for our depr. Aero./Def. stocks to finish bottoming ahead....with, as usual, my being the first to give them out at recent lows for you....the pattern rarely changes.... 6) and looks like we will be correct, with the depr. "Office Supply' stocks for S.T. pops.... 7) and, we got yet another takeover, as BBY buys out MLG, given you herein at lows, neat.... 8) keep in mind, that, as I taught you a while ago, lower Mtg. rates are often NOT as bullish for Housing prices, as 'the 95 %' intimate, historically....but this is too complicated to explain here, call me if desired.... 9) and, seeing more expected-only-by-me S.T. tops among Extended Drug/Medical stocks...watch for this to unfold further over time....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) as first suggested mby me years ago, but nowhere nearly what they SHOULD do, the SEC plans stricter 'disclosure' laws for analysts and money mgrs.' opinions made in Media like TV....but, of course, NOT requiring all their past actual L.T. predictions....God forbid they would actually do something that would help millions of people....of further B.S. interest, of course, the Media and TV people say any such rules would 'raise 1st amendment considerations'....this, from Media people who are so honest and not-misleading and not-sensationalizing, themselves, right ? not.... 2) Tue. 10 am, CNBC did stroy, echoing that day's WSJ article, on "stocks that have been delisted by the OTC", like, about 40+ so far in 2000, the most in a long time, they said, and, as you might surmise, this story coming out near a L.T. bottom, after huge price drops, confirms my sentiment comments recently, dig ? see how easy this is at times ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) another decent contrary indicator, off Multex, an overpaid/overrated Morningstar analyst recently asked, "Is there any hope left for Telecom stocks ?" , get it ? neat for us, ay ? .... 2) continuing to confirm my first-said prediction, recent L.A.T. 12/4, headline, "GDP data shows Japan's economic growth slowing"....'nuff said.... 3) seeing SUNW get whacked still more, (recall I gave it herein near top as a Put, of course), I just laughed, because it again proves my concepts....also, only Mon., finally, after big drop, noon, did David Faber CNBC do a negative piece, titled, "Sun Setting ?", which, as you know, often presages the beginning of the end of the decline, sentiment-wise, yes ? thanks for nothing, again, overpaid analysts and CNBC....the pattern rarely changes....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) annother useless overpaid analyst, on CNBC, FRi. at the close, Michael Cannaylick ?, actually said, "just buying the strongest comapnies will always reward you all the time"....excuse me ? But isn't pretty-much EVERY, SINGLE, "quality/strongest company' stock, DOWN a bunch in recent months ? next....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) exactly as i was, as usual, first to predict the top in, Thu., news stories about recalls, accidents, and danger (never mind oversupply and too many entrants in) in those 'scooters'....as they become, as ALL fads become in my "PSYCLE sm"....ditto with those 'desk waterfall' things here....human nature NEVER changes.... 2) of interest 12/8 L.A.T. headline, "Gallup Poll shows Americans Less Optimistic" ....hmmm.... also as I predicted first herein for you at the top, yes ? citing "new pessimism, with 48 % saying things are getting worse, and 39 % saying things are getting better, a dramatic shoft"....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
at least 1/2 pos. calls PRGN (15+ to 26+) for VVVQ 275% Gain....bal. calls CNXT (20 to 33-) for VVVQ 250% G....bal. calls CYMI (20+ to 30) for VVVQ 175% G ....all puts PDII. (137+ to 80+) for VVVQ 175% G....1/2 pos. calls DLX (20 to 24) for 80% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. AAI (4. to 6 1/8) for Q 66% G....bal. puts GUC (104- to 88+) for VQ 60% G....all calls CMH (8++ to 12-) for L.T. 70% G....
and/but, longs, LUB, REP, PLL ?, AII. ?, OCN ?, CNS ?, ALI., LOR ny, and 1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. TGX (7 to 4 to 5 3/4) for L.T. loss, and, puts, UNH no ?, CEFT ?, HBC ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....I would not be surprised if our QSL's turn out to be fakeout breakouts, but we must conserve portfolio capital here hwre we can....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
BC @ 17-, 1/2 pos. BLM @ 1 3/8, 1/2 pos. CTB @ 9 3/8, 1/2 pos. EFII. @ 13+, 1/2 pos. FFIV @ 25-, 1/2 pos. HNV @ 0.28, 1/2 pos. IOM @ 4 1/4, 1/2 pos. JCP @ 9 3/8, 1/2 pos. LEA @ 20+, 1/2 pos. LTV @ 1/2, 1/2 pos. MTP @ 22 1/8, 1/2 pos. TLK @ 4 3/4 ?,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AII. no, AIR @
10+, ALU @ 3 5/8, ATYT @ 7+, BGO @ 0.405, CCC @ 5, CEL @ 10+, CHB @ 3, CHINA @ 6 5/8, DR @ 12, ELNK @ 6 1/8, FON @ 22 3/4, FUN @ 18-, FRT @ 19, GEB @ 1.06, GSR @ 0.43, GY @ 7 5/8, HA @ 1 7/8, KM @ 5 1/2 ?, KRY @ 7/8, LOJN @ 7, LOR @ 4- ?, LRW @ 2 7/8, MLS @ 16++ ?, MRBA @ 4 3/4, ODP @ 6 1/8, PHC @ 18++, PKS @ 14+, PLL @ 18++, RAD @ 2 1/2, ROC @ 5.06, SGI. @ 3 5/8, SVRN @ 6++, TRAC @ 1-, WCOM @ 15-...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, MXR, BLM ?, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): BAX @ 86, DDIC @ 42+,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') CEFT @ 45+ ?, DUK @ 90-, FPL @ 66+, FRX @ 140-, HBC @ 76, HMA @ 22-, MRK @ 92++, UNH @ 120-,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, ,
and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put",
as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken
off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their
charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime
benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were
'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", AMZN, ITT, CD, WMO, VSEA, INAP, ELON, TSM, LDG, GRT, LVLT, BANR, CMTN, TTE, GPC, PKX, SQNM, USIX, QTRN, SPLS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, OSIP, CAH, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
many more nice further Winners for you: HLIT 12 7/8 up 3 3/4, STK 10.56 up 1.93, PRGN 26.62 up 7.46 (S), LGTO 12 up 2.25, WCOM 17 7/8 up 2 7/8, MRBA 6 1/2 up 1 1/4, ALU 4.31 up 0.69, SGI. 4.06 up 0.56, IOM 4 3/4 up 1/2, KLU 5.06 up 0.56, CMH 12. up 2.19 (S), ELNK 7.43 up 0.93, CCC 5.50 up 0.56, FFIV 29 1/2 up 4 5/8, FON 25.12 up 2.87, CNXT 33.18 up 4.09 (S), CYMI. 30.37 up 3.59 (S), EFII. 14 3/4 up 1 1/2, CVD 11.81 up 1.31, GLT 13.4 up 1.1, DT 36.43 up 3.68, MU 37 5/8 up 3 1/4, AMAT 48.93 up 4.43, AKS 10.18 up 0.75, PHC 19.68 up 1.18, LEA 21 5/8 up 1 3/8, MTP 23 3/8 up 1 1/2, AWA 11.50 up 0.87, ARG 8 5/8 up 3/4, BLM 1.56 up 0.25,
more: BC 18.18 up 1, VOD 40.18 up 1.25, SUSQ 16 1/2, LRCX 20, N. 16 1/2, DLX 24.29 (S), AIR 12, REY 20 1/2, BTO 8 3/8, UAL 38, TSP 14.2, AKS 10.18, INCY 32.31, TKR 15 1/4, ROC 5 1/2, ANAD 20 3/4, DDR 13.18, TLK 5.06, APCC 13 7/8, AAI. 6 5/8, BTO 8 1/2, ABF 10, higher, since last time here....and, FTN 27, USB 27-, WH 16+, even higher still....and, ABX, CGA, UIS, approaching/rose to their 200 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
TGX 5.81 up 1.50, NXTL 34 1/2 up 4, PLL 20.56 up 2.19, LOJN 7.31, PKS 15 1/8, PDG sos, HCM, KM 5.5, TSO, CNS 8 1/4, ATYT 7.29, FFIV 26, 27, HA, LEA 20 3/4, CEL 10 1/2, 11 1/8, 10 3/8, LGTO 11 3/8, SVRN 7 7/8, DLX 22 1/2, ARG 7.93, WSM 17.31, GLT 12.71, ABF 9.68, N. 15.93, HLIT 12, MU 35 1/4, FUN 18-....also note how IOM and USU pulled back to their now-rising 200 DMA ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) CNS 8.62, 9.31, 9, NCI, AM 8 5/8, AII, STEI, CHINA, KDE, ALU, KM 5 3/8, MRCH oy, ATYT, LOR 3.93, FMT, RAD, OCN, ODP 6 1/8, 6 5/8, CVD, BNP, F., PLL, TLK, ORB, VIXL, ZMBA....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
more nice drops for you: PDII. -39 (S), DDIC -4, BAX -2 3/4, FPL -2 1/4, AVE -1, GIS, DUK, down/further since last NL here....and, SUNW 33-, AMD 14, SAPE 11, XLNX 40, CDWC 30-, fell even further still....and, PMI, fell to its 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (FRT, HCN, CWN, DDR, MLS, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, ARJ, TCO, FUN, CRO eh, HRP, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (F, DPH, AN, UAL, AWA, RWY, LOJN, ABF ?, CTB, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (KLU, BMG, BGO, N, AKS, etc.)
Farm/Land/Fert., Aero./Def., Housing-related/Furn., Ind. Groups....
and, Online Brokers/Financials (SVRN, OCN ?, IFS)
and, Commun. (and 'long-distance stocks' ? MWL, CEL, PHI, DT, IIT, FON, WQCOM, etc.), and, Chem. (CCC, ROH, DD, GY), also, Retail (KM, CNS, ODP),
Health-relateds (ALU, ALI. no)
and, of course, some of the 'busted Techs/Semis/Telecoms', as EVB's, just below....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not broken, before
you buy, if at all) added, (mostly busted Techs) CIT, FOX, MTP, TSM, BC, HNV, KEA, LTV, LII, TLK, TWN, ELK, TRAC, CMGI, CEBC, AFFX, DITC ?, CLRN, CTB, IOM, DIGX ?, ELON, HOMS ?, FFIV, ICGE ?, PMTC, VSEA, SPLS ?, to, CNC, STM, SFN ?, UNA ?, TNB, EFII, GILTF, SUSQ, SYMC, ROC, GCR ?, GSR, KRY, to, STK, AMZN, BKC, PMD ?, MRBA, TKR, FRT, GPC, HIB, APCC, BANR, CHRS, SIL, BMCS, JWN, MTZ, LOR ?, GT, PKS, ANAD, LDG, LRCX, CELL, FBN, CHB, HRP eh, IN, PER, COHU, AIR, FBN, LZB, DT, CDO, SRR, AEN, CSDS, NCI, STSA, LOJN, LEA, JCP, PHC, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, NHR,
MLS ?, JDN....close stops again....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, WGR, EPG, BAX, DDIC, TEVA, AFL, MANU, the NYSE 'defensive index' (food, tobacco, etc.), to, AZA, AVE, HMA, FPL, IDPH, NTRS, AMRI, CERN, EXBD, NTRS, APH, FRE ?, CMX, XL, CLX, PGR, FRX, GIS, MRK, MTB, CAH, RKH, RDA ?, CPL, MNY, PPL, SPC, DA, CTIC, DUK, HP, HCA, to,
(repeats) DFXI, ELF, ESRX, COF, MANH, FPC, EPG, IMPH, IMGN, OSIP, CGP, MRX, BLDP, PLXS, from recent past NL's....again, note smaller list....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Utilities, Insur./Mtg., Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES