1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) very tough decisions on some Energies and Utilities, as some have broken their v.s.t. rises, but some remain in their longer bases, and bear watching (pun intended)....others, QSL's for no damage....or removed before completed pattern....remember, it's just another I.G. ...2) Puts winners starting to appear, as usual at this stage, sec. (5).... 3) as usual, I was the first/only to give out some extended Retail/Discount/Grocery stocks as Puts herein recently, you're welcome....might Semis and relateds be next ? ....4) and, included among our Puttables are a bunch of famous big-names.... hmmmm....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) too late as usual, TICKER mag. just now, wrote big useless article, "it may be time to bargain hunt the NASDAQ"...the pattern rarely changes, ay ? ....2) an as-usual-at-this "PSYCLE sm" stage front-page article, recent L.A.T., "Wellpoint makes a strong recovery", is learnable from, big-time....even they admit, 5 years ago at $ 20, they, and most all thoseo verpaid/overrated analysts hated WLP, said had no future, yadda, yadda....at that time, as usual, I was among the first few to like the HMO's, etc., recall, herein....anyway, only now, do they report its $ 120. stock price as 'super-good-forward-forever", etc., normal, ay ? learn the patterns, or never make money as much as you can/should, with my help.... 3) an actually-correct, has-worth article, recent L.A.T. 12/9, warning people that 'buying right as a co. declares ch. 11 BK, has noit been a winning proposition", which in recent years has been a true statement....of course, nowhere in this article (dgms), does it mention waiting for a base to form, or sentiment, patterns, nor technical analysis - nor, learning how to sell into parabolic-wall-street-loves-it strength, dig ? next....
4)
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) with overnite Fed Funds down to maybe 1 3/4 % and the discount rate at 1 1/4 % now, the 11th straight rate lowering in a while, as we said, cannot expect further help from rates forward....even as the Financial Media overeports it yet again to no help for millions of investors, especially those in M.M. funds, and rolling T-bills, right ? perhaps, as usual, they got some unenlightened people to shift into already-up stocks recently - just in time for them to experience pullbacks, in stage 2, right ? ....2) big front-page article, recent L.A.T., "the end of the PC growth business ?", is yet another "PSYCLE sm" likely-contrary sign, fundamentally, ay ? yeah, right....what drivel....that's the kind of BS we heard when I was the first to give out HWP, CPQ, UIS, GTW, stocks, etc., at 9/21 lows herein, but could get no one to buy any, yes ? interesting also their comments, since tons of pverpaid/overrated analysts continued to love them all the way down, yes ? and the recent predicted-first-here big pops among chip-semi. stocks, they also hated from lows, lovding from highs....the pattern rarely changes....for the record, I still see huge future demand for computers and stuff, but, then, I know nothing, right ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) amazingly, adding on to his unhelpfulness, B. Svchaeffer sent me a treatise chronicling the previous few 50 % corrections in indexes, showing (again, only now, after big rises he did not predict), showing how the major indices should have done what they just did....uh, excuse me ? of what use is that ? next.... 2) also, recent L.A.T. article, "Former Bear warming to bullish possiblities", cites the pernma-bear-even-from-9/21-lows, Jim Stack, getting less bearish - only now - after missing big easy gains we gave ya herein, yes ? again, the pattern rarely changes....hios latest writes, "in all probablility, it is a new bull market" - gosh, run for the hills, ay ? plus, he now loves, get this, TYC, CNI, ROST, none even remotely cheap or bottomy....and he gets huge fame and laurels, dgms.... a nice guy I respect as a pewrson, but, gosh....last, his latest NL specifically says, "there remains a lot of washout ahead for techs stocks"....this from a guy who missed their entire parabolic rise in the later 1990's, and was bearish after 1993, the article said....hmmmm....then why publish him, and not someone way better, like me ? oh, yeah, Tom Petruno wrote it....dgms....
e) more general, political, misreported items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) off the subject but worth mentioning again: I continue to be staggared by the amazing number of phone (supposed) 'service' people, telemarketers, mostly women, who have just terrible phone acumen, accents, diction, etc. - a real disservice to our nation, yet no one seems to care....even if their pitch was good, which it NEVER is (you'd think they would be trained, even just a little bit (dgms), one cannot even understand anything they are saying....they also talk so quickly, this is beyond beyond...since these missives are a chronicle of my mostly excellent but rarely appreciated/taken advantage-of output, had to write it....no answer....what a shame for us all....is this what our system has come to ? another reason I am so thankful for what I have at all, given the constraints and impediments abounding....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better,
and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains, 11 more Longs (plus several 'balances'), and, more Puts:
bal. stk.on.mgn. ORCL (11+ to 16) for 85% Gain....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. TWAV (11+ to 14+) for VQ 50% G....1/2 pos. calls NTK (20+ to 25) for VVQ 90% G....1/2 pos. stock PRM (2.00 to 2.80) for VVQ 35% G....1/2 pos. calls UHS (38++ to 44+) for Q 60% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. KERX (5.25 to 6.80) for VVQ 50% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. PGO (5.1 to 6.8) for VQ 50% G....1/2 pos. stock CLRS (3.2 to 4.7) for VQ 44% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. NR (5.5 to 7.4) for VQ 60% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. SBGI (7.2 to 9.2) for VQ 55% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. AETH (6+ to 9++) for 100% G....all stk.on.mgn. MODT (7 to 9+) for 70% G....and, as recently mentioned, one could/should have sold techs rallied-back-up-towards-resistance stocks, for Q, large % Gains, like, VVTV, CCRT, PCTI, KANA, PCTI, ORG, ANEN, completely....and, bal. puts MO, for nice % G....
and/but, longs, GEG, NTT, TE, DUK, UTHR ? no !, and, puts, ACS, AMN, AMG !?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/3 pos. RT @ 11, 1/2 pos. SPOT @ 20+, 1/2 pos. NNDS @ 20+, 1/2 pos. VLCCF @ 15+, 1/2 pos. VSAT @ 13,
note smaller list, but still serviceable,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions):
1/2 pos. AOL @ 31, 1/2 pos. KM @ 6-, 1/3 pos. TSS @ 19, 1/2 pos. SRP @ 14, ACPW @ 5+, 1/2 pos. TEO @ 6-, ACLA @ 4+, 1/2 pos. FON @ 19, 1/3 pos. CVAS @ 5+, 1/3 pos. CHRS @ 4.55, 1/3 pos. RRC @ 4-, AVGN @ 9+, TCC @ 9+, VRA @ 1.2, UTHR ?, WFII. @ 5+...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, FWC, D, MRK, DYN, SGR, MIR, PNW, SFY, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
I try
to give them alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones):
1/2 pos. COST @ 43-, FMBI. @ 35+, SFG @ 48-, 1/2 pos. VCI. @ 36, 1/3 pos. SMTC @ 43-, 1/2 pos. RCI. @ 32, 1/2 pos. IVV @ 116, 1/3 pos. IWV @ 64, LIZ @ 51, plus,
1/2 pos. MMC @ 110+, 1/2 pos. S @ 46+, SKYF @ 20+, 1/2 pos. ABS @ 34, APOL ny, XL @ 94+, 1/3 pos. TRPS @ 21+, 1/2 pos. KRI. @ 63, 1/2 pos. IBC @ 26-, 1/3 pos. ISIL @ 40, 1/3 pos. DBD @ 40, 1/2 pos. ACV @ 46+, 1/2 pos. ACE @ 40, 1/2 pos. BAC @ 65, 1/2 pos. IFF @ 31+, 1/2 pos. FTN @ 36++, 1/3 pos. SLM @ 87+, 1/3 pos. HRB @ 41, EMIS @ 31-, 1/3 pos. HD @ 50, EW @ 26, 1/2 pos. ITT @ 51+, and, the QQQ @ 43++, 1/2 pos. PG @ 77+, EC @ 28, UB @ 38, CFBX @ 26, PFGC @ 34++, WBSN @ 28+,
"Repeats": AOT @ 25+, 1/2 pos. DRI. @ 32+, ASBC @ 36-, DF @ 46+, 1/2 pos. MAA @ 26, 1/2 pos. PHC @ 35, DL @ 18-, 1/2 pos. GCI. @ 69++, 1/2 pos. ICBC @ 24+, 1/2 pos. FISV @ 41+, UDR @ 14+, WMT @ 56,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, EMIS ?, BSC, ACS, PG, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in
sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", TQNT, DTHK, SNV, CTS, EXEE, VSAT, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, APOL, AMGN, PSA, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
many more big winners for you, you're welcome:
TIE 3.74 up 0.45, APW 2.15 up 0.22, AETH 9.74 up 0.90, FSII. 9.50 up 0.50, Q. 12.62 up 1.12, PRM 2.85 up 0.20, UHS 44.85 up 3.14, VSAT 14.85 up 1.85, SBGI. 9.36 up 0.23, AOL 32.48 up 1.52, NTK 25.50 up 1.16, SRP 14.75 up 0.75, ABX 15.89 up 0.83, SWC 18.15 up 0.89, TWAV 14.19, VVTV 18.20, CCRT 9.05, RT 11.50, TSS 20, RRC 4.50, TRID 6.90 (sos), MODT 9.23 (S), up/higher since last NL here....also note, we got yet another takeover, as TCM, a slight fobd, rose from 8 to 18 recently ....the virtue and reward of patience, yes ?
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or more Bounces after pullbacks:
almost every stock out there, dig ?, and, CLRS 4.83 up 0.51, GLBL 7.51 up 0.91, STXN 8.22 up 0.57, ORCL 16.04 (S), IFC 17.70, 18.40, GSPN 12.25, XOMA 7.95, 8.45, Q. 11.95, AYE 34.2, VSAT, RT 10.95 (B), UHS 42.65, HBI0 8.80 pb, Q. 11.50 bopb, STLD 10.56, ACPW 5.48, 5.83, MICC 11.05, KERX 6.25, 6.89, RRC 4.25....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
this list growing, dig ? UTHR 8.55 (L), 9.25 fobd ?, AVGN 9.26 pb (B), VLCCF 15, HAL, DPL 22.80, 23.61, TG, FMC, WFII., PHI. 7.66, LNUX 3.55 up, 2.90, FON 19.18, FSII, HMT, PSEM, KEYN, VRSN 41, 44, SCS, KFY 9.64, DSS, VVTV, TWAV, AETH, STXN, CLTK, CHINA, STXN, UAL (sos), FMC, VSH, and most all Techs and rallied stocks, and those listed in sec. (3) last time above, must follow-through up further....above their bases and resistance highs of this week....and/or, above their previously-broken-below-before-sept. 11th-levels....and, will TE, become a 'fobd' ?
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
ABS -3 1/2, IVV -3, FBC -2 1/2, EMIS -2 1/2, TRPS -2 1/2, RE -2 5/8, IBC -2 1/2, PFGC -2, ACE -2, RCI. -2, MMC -1 1/2, RMD -1 1/2, WMT -1, RWT -1, COST -1 1/4, SFG -1 1/2, SLM -1 1/2, VCI. -1, QQQ -1, MAA -1, ICBC -1, ITT -1, IWV -1 1/2, ICBC -5/8, IFF, XL -1 1/4, HRB -3/4, FMBI. -1, S. -1, LIZ -1 1/4, EC -1, UB -1, NHP -1, ACE -1, SKYF, DF, ISIL, PCL, SMTC, lower, some further, since last NL here....were/are, IBC, APOL, FISV, AMGN, AMN, GENZ, ACS, more 'fobo's ? and, RCI, approaches its 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
Utilities, Entertainment/Leisure, Retail/Apparel, Cable, Brokers, Foreign depr. stocks, Agriculture-oriented, Golds, Telecom, Steel, to, Depressed Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative Energy, Ind. Groups...and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note,
obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many
others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note,
re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this
NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read
sec. (1) above), added these:
WAG ?, CTS, PSD, PEG ?, TM, EX, NOI. ?, PRCS, to, ITP, REP, FST ?, TSS, NGEN, GERN, SCMR, ARNA ?, DTHK, to, MFDE, FSII, HYSQ, CEI, APW, SLR, CALP, ZIXI, TFS, CNH, TCC, MCD no,
as EVB's or bases....
and, some Energy/Alt./Svcs.: PGO opbo, BR, FCEL, RRC, KERX, ACPW, DVN ?, PLUG, WR, CPST, etc.
some Biotechs and health-relateds: ACLA, AVGN, UTHR, HBIO, BCGI, SGP, SCOR, OSTE, DMN, SSK, SGEN,
among Telecom-Net-Satellite-Commun.-orienteds: AOL, PACW, T, TIE, WFII, AOL, TEO, NNDS, SPOT, VSAT, BLS, MICC, GX, BTY, VLCCF ?, KEYN,
retail/apparel/shoes: CTHR, CHRS, GPS, KM,
Utils.: SRP, DUK ?, AYE,
precious metals: SWC, ABX, SLGLF, NEM, PDG, HGMCY, ABX opbo, and, STLD, RT, steels,
financial-orienteds: SNV, GSB, CCR, PVN, ALL, PFGI,
and, some more Foreign Telecoms, and more, soon ?
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* added, ADRX, AMGN, IDPH, ZRAN, WBSN, PFGC, EC, IWV, IVV, MMM, LIZ, PCL ?, THC, SFG, RCI, to, HD, KKD, WMT, MMC, XL, S, BLL, HRB, AN ?, APOL ?, EMIS no ?, FMBI, TRPS, SMTC, ISIL, to, PCSA, ICBC, COST, BBY, DL, BAC, IFF, PSA, ACV, IBC no ?, ITT, GCI, FBC, DBD, FISV ?, IMCL ?, FTN, STW ?, SLM, SKYF, DF, SYK, UDR ?, BCS, RWT, TOO, APPB no, MATR, SPH, NHP, MAA, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: added, extended Building/Residential/Commerical-relateds, Semiconductor-relateds, and maybe Chem. soon, to,
Extended: Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Pollution-related, Aero./Def., Funeral, "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes',
Disc. Retail Chains, Insur. brokers/Banks/Mtg./Loans, Construction/Electrical, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, Elec., Security, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES