1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

ok, again, now that even the 3rd-tier cheapies are bouncing, rally has GOT to end ahead....plus, investors put $ 6 B into MF's in Nov., highest since April '04, get it ? just B4 that S.T. correction, hmmmm....sentiment....re-read my Booklets....and notice, even with Mon. 13th pops in indexes, most cont. 2 B pot. fobo's, vs. new huge rises coming, i cannot stress this enuf....plus, the old VIX made a new multi-year low, at 12.14 dn....

again, noting how small BOTH, my pot. longside AND my puttables lists have gotten !, maybe the smallest total herein EVER....wonder what THAT means, PSYCLE-wise ? and while his actual T.R. has not been VG, B. Schaeffer agrees with me, that Ovbt/Ovsld., and P/C, ratios, show stocks are due for a rest/correction, I say....uh, and, just for the record, he also sees, because this rally was pretty decent technically underlying strength, higher recovery highs after pb's/corrections, as i do....recall, I specifically mentioned at lower prices, a 21-day MA of P/C ratio of around 0.75, high, sentiment-bullish back then ?, well, now, that P/C down to 0.55, kinda low, portending end of rallies not too far ahead, dig ?, R U learning all my PSYCLE sm patterns ?, if not, Y not ?

gee, with Crude, Silver, Gold, CRB, N. Gas, R.E., all down like -15 % all of a sudden 9to the 95 % not us, right ?), who was the 1st/only guy to predict reversals among many rallied commods in my recent Nl's herein ?, you're welcome....it is probably just the beginning, as this new trend in them keeps the economic string going a little longer, exactly as only i foresaw a few mos. ago herein, yes ?, see details below as they warrant comments from me....

So, as U have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just taking advantage of the best individual stocks and in rotating industry groups, chart-pattern-technically and sentiment-wise contrarily, mostly on the long side, but never eschewing the put-side, with preset stops and proper diversification - while ignoring or going opposite 95 % of all news, fundamentals, media messages, opinions, indexes/averages comments, from nearly everyone other than me, etc.
By just getting my output herein, alone, at least, U do much better, and save time, by not even having to "seek and process" the massive and ridiculous, often-misleading and/or incorrect, useless-as-D.A.F.P.P. info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional decision-making problems for U, B4 they even begin, yes ?

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) U been reading the BS articles 'explaining' Crude' srecent pb in price ?, oy, like, "mild weather, higher supplies, return of Gulf plants', etc., what crap - but as usual, in accordance with what my PSYCLE predicted herein in stage 4, yes ?, gee, if that IS true, then how come so few people besides me, shorted/sold O & G at their recent op, anticipating those easily-known-then supposed factors ?, dig ?, R U learning the pattern ?, if not, Y not ? meanwhile, Jan. Crude hit $ 41.65 Mon. 6th, take that....except I saw too many headlines, "crude PLUNGES to 3-mo. low !", get it ?, jeez, Media idiots really ARE dangerous - as they have always been....and that $ 41.+ was my take-puts-gains target, yes ? ...2) vst anyway, noting that gold STOCKS are again underpferoming cash Gold price, dig ?, also noting ridiculus bulls only now puffing Steel and Coal and Trans. stks, all which I have chronicled in past NL's, as impending tops ahead, get it ? ....3) but, cash Gold rose to hit new 16-yr. high at $ 461, anyway....I have been correct so high % of the time in gold over the decades, but wrong above 430, obviously....but, GLD, that new b.s. m.f., is DOWN from 453 to 436, on Thu. 12/9, hah....and silver from 8.05 to 6.74, take that....I am right on that, so far, again....

4) meanwhile, the mar. 30-yr. t-bond ROSE 3, to 113 wow, again, ctbo ?, wow, watching it closely still...but neither mar. 30-yr. t-bond, nor the '10-yr. bond' had definitely broken out/up, yet, and show s.t. triple-top, oy....the TYX yld. dn again to 4.73 %, recall, close to breaking BELOW its yld-supprt, and the TNX dn to 4.13 % yld, dn from recent 4.43 % yld pop level, hmmmm.... 5) and, was I, again, the 1st/only to sugg. Puts on China stocks recently, while the 95 % universally bullish at their recent highs as usual ?, you're welcome- again.... 5) meanwhile, Fri. aft. 10th, ALL the wrongway ever-bears are saying exactly what would be said in s.t. stage 5, that, "we're not worried about the rise int he DXY & the t-bond, and, the falls in gold/silver/energies, it just alleviates the overbt/ovsld stauture of those items s.t. - soon, they will resume their skyward/down previous trends", FLW, ay ?, I say....we shall see....

6) noting new rumors trhat TOY might be taken over, oy, recall how, exactly as only I sugg. herein just B4 each stk. px. turn, TOY, rose from base while the 95 % hated it, then, fell after they fell in love with it, then, last year, formed another depr. base I rec'd. (with oither toys stks. by me herein 1st/alone), long, and, now, only after price rise again, it is somehow again 'attractive'....get it ?, the pattern rarely changes, ay ?, next....from 9, to 30, to 7, to 17 (where I WAS wrong for a vq vsl, puts, and now still barely 20+, no biggie....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians, your Govt., etc.:
1) several misleading/incorrect/agendized items from recent LAT: headlines: "AIDS rate for gay men climbs" - wrong !, even within the artcile, it specifically said, "offset by a decline in new cases from drug users, the overall rate increased by 1 % from last year", dgms)....while "only) 40 K new HIV cases NATIONWIDE in 2004, and, still, only about 900K Amnericans have HIV today, and, about 18K AIDS people die per yr., while terrible that ANYone is ever affected of course, as I have correctl;y, and alone, said, herein, since HIV/AIDS topped out - in the mid-1980's (dgms), compared to MANY other illnesses, smoking, alcohol, chemical, accidents, natural disasters, etc., this hated-by-the-far-right issue has remained NOT a problem as worth throwing tons of $ at, vs. OTHER problems our country has, again I rest my case....

"Roe vs. Wade comes under pressure from the ridiculous right", i cont. to shudder, as I have for years now since Clinton, as your elected republicans cont. to chip away at this they-are-wrong-in-their-hypocrisy-nazi-ism issue....my goodness, yourreligious right is ruining your country month by month, I fear next 4 yrs. will be even worse for isocial issues....
"What we have Won in Falluja", mentioned, properly, as DR. Bill W. on 810 am, KGO radio has been correctly saying all along, that Your News Media rarely reports ANY accomplishemnts in Iraq, or anywhere else for that matter, but I digress, and that fallouja had fewer relative US casualities, spent less $, that locals there actually are improving their opinions of US, Iraqis are fed up with their own terrorists activities, and we found a bunch of weapons and chemicals, and are establishing more infrastructure and schools, fooid, water, slowly and steadily, there, regardless of anyone's opinion of this overall Iraq issue....
"10-yr. anniv. of OC bankruptcy", showed, exactly as only my PSYCLE predicted herein, at the bottom in OC bonds, OC's bond rating ROSE from 1/95 'fear lows', and is now actually higher than it was B4 the crisis, get it ?, and/but, there remains a lot of $, like, $ 700 mm still owed by OC bonds, but continues to slowly be declining o/s bal., and, by 2015, should be manageable - tho we have had to eliminate many social svcsw. for the poor and kids, etc., since 1995, forward....rats....
Bush tax proposal to elim. ded. for state taxes pd., would cream Calif. and other Democratic states", wow, those Republicans are even nastier than we thought.... Calif. taxpayers (the shmoes like U and me), would owe - get this - about an addl. $ 35 B. a year (and NY state $ 24 B./yr.) if this bill passes in D.C., oy....and, Ca. & NY's share of addl. nasty taxes, wb $ 70. B. of the est.$ 180 B./yr. Your govt. would screw us by - 2/3 from 'blue' states, get ioit ? hopefully your gov. Arnold, and Giuliani, can stave this from occuring....not good..... a recent Copenhagen convention of supposed scientific, Nobel {Prize, economists, etc., geniuses, met recently, spent a long time coming up with "the best ways to spend $ 50 B. to help our world", etc., interesting....their priorities yielded, Stopping Aids/HIV, Eliminating ALll Trade Tariffs worldwide, Improving Nutrition and Kids worldwide, and Controlling Malaria - all 'cheap' ways to help billions of people....of interest: just 'reforming trade' alone, would increase world resources by $ 1 trillion/ a year !, is anyone out there listening ?, nope, theyr are remaining ignorant, nasty, greedy, thoughless, and/or violent, instead, yes ?, great system, ay >....not.....
read excellent PARADE mag. article by none other than Michael Chrichton, "let's Stop Scaring Ourselves !", chronicling, as I have said for decades, many, many, specifically, similarly over-hyped items' over even just recent decades, whereby we have been immorally and incorrectly frightened about all sorts of things - NONE of which even remotely occured - get it ?, my PSYCLE wins again, we lose....like:
many major mags (re-read my Booklets) espousing the-end-of-the-world covers (shame on them, but I dgiress), about, 'catastrophies coming', from, say, glaciers, warming, cooling, comets hitting the earth (false) , pop. explosion (wrong), fertility rates, hiv/aids, food/starvation (not), all resources diasappearing (not), power-lines risks (wrong), water pollution (wrong), 'we're running out of everything" (wrong), fears that computers would replace people-workers (false), saccharin, the flu, cyclamtates, spray cans, CFC's, cow flatulence, magnets as body cures (wrong), killer bees (wrong), call phones, road rage/shootings (passed), florescent lights (oy), overwork/leisure-time crisis (nope), Y2K (nope), stocks crashes (only temporary), and more, right ? as I have taught correctly for decades, in EVERY SINGLE case, NO true scientific evidence has appeared to warrant even the initial scares, dig ? NONE !, every single item has turned out top have been FALSE, period....i again rest my "PSYCLE sm" case....NO 'links', and NO 'dire predictions'....uh, watch for, as only I say, an item like O $ G, NOT to 'rise to the moon forever', right ?

and this recent unbelievably ignorant headline in a major Finl. Media place that will go unnamed, "crude oil prices CLIMB on RISE in U.S. supplies"....uh, excuse me ?....next".... 2) just saw rare VG chart of 30-yr. t-bill yield since 1978, and, as i have been foreseeing correctly since only I called the a.t. low yld. a while ago herein, IS, 1- STILL in a l.t. downtrend, until yld. rises over, say, 6 % or so....BUT, 2- again, we DO seem to have had a l.t. bottom in yields, and are, as I also only/first predicted herein, forming a probable base, with yields bouncing between, say, 3 % and 6 % for a while, dig ?, use it or lose....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data, and/or stock price moves:
1) just read LAT big article, "USA losing ground as food exporter", presented by them as a big neg., could turn out to be a l.t po.s, esp. since that means WE sell tons more farm equip. to other countries, yes ?, and, maybe they sell US, their cheaper-made food, lowering OUR costs when we buy it, just as occurs from China/India with clothes and tech. stuff, yes ?, dgms....there are 2 sides to EVERY issue, idiot-media-crap notwithstanding, right ? ....2) Sun. LAT front-page bullish puff article, recommended DHI< a bldr. whose stk., as usual, had already risen from $ 5. to $ 36, in perfect PSYCLE behavior, as a 'gresat co./stk. buy".....gee, how many times have I chronicled similar stories over the decades - just B4 their stage 4 tops, dig ?, R U learning the pattern ?, if not, Y not ?

3) oy, seeing too many headlines, like LAT, "econ. data backs optimism", dgms....chart titled, "in a buying mood", just hurts their incorrect case more, at this late statge, dig ? ditto recent stupid, "wall st. gets boost from oil price drop" crap (see above), dgms.... 4) and just noticed (tho, as usual, under-reported in the press, dgms), that, ASEAN countries, S.E. aisa nations, have just signed new free-trade pact w/China, supposedly removing most all trade tariffs/barriers, wow between them ?, yikes, if so....they may be moving towards an Asian Union, as Europe has done, they say, by year 2020, hmmmm....AND, japan, Australia/NZ, S. Korea are also beginning ASEAN (Cambod., Viet, Brunei, Malysa, Phil., Singpor) talks....

4) meanwhile, the Euro hit 1.34+, a new high, and the Japanese still hold $ 720 B. uys dollars, hah....was reading great Barrons article from 10/00, which I will recant later, with end-of-the-world worries about US trade and current-a/c deficits, yadda, yadda....and the Euro made a new low, in 10/00, at 0.85....get it ? so, once again, we see, that very few auto. 'lonks' exist, still more proof of the value of my PSYCLE sm concepts, ay ? and, Japan's 'fed' guy just issued a 'currency alert' - get it ?, gotta be a reversal ahead, PSYCLE-wiuise, yes ?, R U learning the/my patterns ? if not, Y not ? ....5) noticing, already Google insiders bailing out, like, $ 30 mm from ceo & exec, hmmmm....

6) also, OPEC is now discussing lowering its daily output from record 27 mm bb/d, to 25 mm b/d....of course, I would ask, a-HAVE they BEEN producing that much recently, b-CAN they lower it, with cheating abounding within OPEC's lessened power (read my past comments about LOWER power from OPEC having, dgms), c- and might this, on hindsight months from now when Crude may be below even $ 40. bbl. I say, be the beginning of a despararate move on OPEC's part, get it ?....hmmmm.... 7) and reminding U once again, that 'gold in terms of foreign currencies holders' is hardly up at all, even since gold $ 255. over 2 yrs. ago, get it ?, hah.... 7) and just read, as I suggested (alone) recently, that 'crude oil inventories' UP, not down, DURING the winter, hmmmm....certainly unexpected by the 95 % ignorants, ay ?, plus, consecutive incorrect misleading stupid headlines, back-to-back, in WSJ: 1- "crude price slides on invetory climb', then, 2- crude price climbs after govt. data shows an increase in supplies" - uh, excuse me ?, how can both be correct ?, well, neither are - as usual, with the ignorant Media, dgms....see ?, R U learning my "PSYCLE sm" items/poatterns ?, if not, Y not ?, next....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) well, he finally did it....the age 45 writer of The Daily Reckoning NL which I have correctly been lambasting on occas., he of masive finl. backing undeserved, and undue fame, etc. - admitted recently that he "has amassed barely $ 10 mm pennies in dollars to date"....meaning, his net worth only $ 100 K ?, so why should anyone listen to, or follow, his advice ?, again, I rest my case....as he continues to only recommend already-way-up Oil stocks, dgms.... 2) while I have properly cautioned about EWT comments being super-bearish too often, since AFTER the '87 crash, herein, they recently mentioned, "a couple of indicators are renetly even more bullish, seintiment-wise, than we saw at the Y2K stocks prices tops"....so they are bearish again, even from recent lows B4 recent rallies which i predicted and they did not, as usual....but he bears listening to at times for sure....we both agree on s.t. tops here in rallied commods, techs, etc., yes ?

3) TobinS ChangeW, now expects some consolidation finally of gains he DID kinda predict (tho he has been wrong many times as I have chronicled herein, over the years, way more than he has been correct), BUT, also expects higher highs (as I do) after pb's, because he says, "we have broken all since-2000 downtrends in indexes, the Russell 2000 is at highs, leadership is broad and not the leaders of the pre-Y2K mkt." - but then also reiterates his opinioon that , "tech. and PC era is over forever"....so take that with grain of salt, ay ? ....3) just read long review of 2004's specific stocks recommendations within SmartMoney Mag. (an oxymoron, as i have mentioned & proven many times for years herein), and, as U might imagine, even they admit to their mediorce T.R., with more than a few stks. NOT stopped-lossed, falling, like, -50 % and more....which they just gloss over, failing as usual to take taht opp. to teach their readers anything of DAFPPV, dgms....anyway, theiur 'best investments for '04' list woefully deficient.....4 gains @ +30 % or more, and 4 losses of -30 % or more....hardly worth the effort....and, just so many not-valuable predictions, i will stop now....R U learning the 'magazine output' pattern ?, if not, Y not ?

4) as usual, FUTURES mag. recently highlighted huge rise in Cocoa, drop in cattle, and rise in Euro - all late, after unpredicted-by-them moves, get it ?, but at least they hinted at a l.t. bottom in the Dollar, as i see....citing lowest-sentiment in the DXY ever, hmmmm....they also foresee LOWER bond PRICES and higher yields, so do I, but fail to warn against buying Crude or Copper way up here....oh, and with (I say, not tehm), OJ having gotten hit after hurricanes, might OJ be getting cheap, but already up from .65 to .95, dgms....next.... 5) TDR recently wrote, in their frustration at being so wrong for so long, and their ever-bearishness, "never have so many people had so much money and 'paper wealth' that they have not earned"....hmmmm, gee, have YOU idiots earned YOUR $ taken from unsuspecting subscribers whom you may have also lost $ for ?, dgms....

e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) I was surprised to read that VJ. Singh vastly outplayed and outwon and outearned Tiger Woods in 2004, he won 9 of 19 events, and Tiger won 'just' just 1 of 19 tournaments, and VJS earned $ 10mmm+, eclipsing Tiger's 2000 a.t. record for any one year....this proves another of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts from my Booklets: that, the Mwdia never tells us anything about it till well afterwards....oh, and fears that Tiger is 'through' are also overblown, jeez....although, if U recall, I called HIS personal-prof.-top, 2-3- yrs. ago herein, yes ?, as i have correctly first/alone called so many money mgrs., famous people's tops, herein, as well, using my PSYCLE sm....the B.S. Media improperly sensationalizes Tiger, over a 'no-name from India' (dgms) ....2) recall recent headlines expounding 'vasly higher seasonal sales, get excited America' BS headlines, as i pointed out herein 1-2wks. ago herein ?, well, new headline Sunday last: "early holiday sales show WEAKNESS", interesting, huh ?, am I good or what....recall just 2 weeks ago, all those ignorant , "holiday sales way UP", b.s. headlines I told U were gonna be wrong, yes ?

2) recent 'Public Policy Institute of Calif. poll' in LAT (dgms), found, 96 % of OC residents said they were satisfied with the homes they are in, and 80 % said "very satisfied", yikes....well, sure, around the top after a huge price rise, sure....but 61 % of 'renters' felt 'starined financially'....while only 27 5 of homeowners felt 'strained financially.", watch for these numbers to worsen a lot as RE out here falls, etc., get it ? ....3) recent headline, LAT, 'More homeowners tapping into their home equity LOC", says exactly what I have been explaining herein - but I still say, there is plenty of leeway remaing even at recently-dropped price levels....LAT said, US homeowners took, w/d, $ 41 B. of H.E. into cash in the 3rd Q., up from $ 29 B. they w/d in 2nd Q of 2004.... Freddie Mac estmates that, for 2004 total, about $ 118. B w.b. w/d from H.E. - nationwide - out of, what, $ 9 trillion in H. equity ?, dgms....plus, the vast majority of all HELOC w/d's are TAX-FREE, right ?, and any interest pd. is ded., dig ?not THAT bad at all - yet....

4) recent book on homebuying said, the avg. median home price has triple since 1980, the worst yr. +2.1 % in 1982, best year was +14.4 % 1979- nationally....in 2004, up +10.9 %....but offered nothing new.... 5) and a follow-up on saddam skimming $ from the B.S. food-for-oil program your govt. and the UN stupidly let mhim do, their new 'his stolen $' number ? $ 21 B., yikes....great system, huh.... 6) and i just read good article in the fine W.C. Douglas health NL, about how much 'people getting fatter nationwide' is increasing airlines costs of fuel and carrying people, hurting that already-maligned industry even more, and I agree...shame on those heavy people out there (absent true internal impossible-to-cure genetics for only SOME people), there exists more good helpful free info and cheap products and ideas than ever to lose weight !, as our once-great country slides further, socially and in many other ways, ay ? 'nuff said....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....