1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
Well, last week, I got that feeling I sometimes have gotten, of not knowing why bunches of stocks are doing what they are doing, that I get, on occasion, historically, near S.T. tops ....So, do not ignore my warnings on the Extendeds, even though we have taken plenty of real little Puts losses lately....I am just flabbergasted, and very disappointed, yet I know this (the parabolic rises, and breakdowns) must end, soon, but am almost going crazy having to follow everything, short-term, and am trying to catch tops and bottoms for you when/if they form....I hate "Scenarios" (re-read my Booklet), but, I have a feeling that something big, and negative, is lurking, which no one around is mentioning, that will be the fulcrum of whacking the parabolics, certainly by end of January....and maybe sooner....may be when/if they find true Internet numbers are not as rocket-like, as expected, soon ? or, people with lucky parabolic rise-gains in Techs, dump them for profit-taking after first of the year ?

Obviously, I have never seen anything like the Techs/Internets rises lately, except for maybe just before the Jan./Feb. 1998 Interent/Tech. tops which I was the first/only to have predicted herein for you back then....This cannot last, but I said that once before....also, obviously, we are getting, new, tremendous volatility intraday, which also normally marks the END of a big rise, and NOT the beginning of one, dig ?

A ridiculous number of Q, S, losses lately, on both sides, in section (3) below....extremely rare for me....but, as you know, this often presages a period of significant improvement in my performance, which always follows....just as some people might give up or quit prematurely, PSY-chologically....So, if one desires to play the downside possiblities, one is going to have to just "try" to catch some extendeds, diversifying for protection, and having stop losses quickly when/if wrong, and just 'know' that these parabolas just must end soon....I heard yesterday, on CNBC, a M. Fund mgr. said that the 'total market value' of Internet stocks, is now THREE TIMES the TMV of ALL other 'computer-oriented' stocks, which have been around for much longer, and actually been making money, for years etc. ...From here, it begins to become absolutely mathematically impossible to continue this trend at current rates, or even maintain these stock price valuations, by definition (unless tons more money is printed, worldwide, but I digress)....for instance, if so, then those stocks would soon be worth more than the money it would take to buy and use the very products and services they supposedly offer, dig ? Am I missing something here at this point ? Last, remember, as taught in my Booklets, these stocks will likely FALL, when the time comes, just AS they begin to report HIGHER earnings, in stage 5 and 6, into disappointment following recent unrealistic expectations, yes ? There is NO way, period, that these valuations can be fulfilled by future earnings....I still say, probably 2/3 of today's Internet companies, will NOT even exist, several years from now....

Note the huge number of "?" potential breaks/sales in section (3) below.... EXTREMELY difficult to decide on many of them, because of "tax-selling slight breakdowns" which, often, this time of year, end up revalidating bullish base patterns, after shaking holders out, dig ? Please use your specific risk [arameters to decide wether or not you should sell or hold these....

Yet, I find more 'split market' ideas, added, in both, section (6) and (7) below....and, the NASDAQ indexes rose recently, while its A/D opscillator fails, first time that has happened since -- you guessed it -- before big corrections in them early 1998, dig ? and one wonders, why are so few people, pros and neophytes, evidently NOT yet selling stocks "because of Y2K fears" ? if they were, in droves, wouldn't stocks be a lot lower ? Denial, yes ? Note, are such sellers mostly afraid of "the system", but not "the stock price's future possible declines" ? "PSY-chology' at work, ay ?

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more, as befits market conditions....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage, over time.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) rises among big Internets, obviously NOT predicted/expected, no opinion here.... 2) Retails, added more....still need work.... 3) and, is that a little S.T., H & S bottom in the DJ. Trans. index ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's Bob O'Brien, Mon., 7:30 am, reported very negatively, on all R.E. stocks....which should be good for our depresseds, in time, yes ? ....2) L.A. TImes, Jim Flanigan's column, "amid turmoil, change is real this time in Japan", again, only is printed, AFTER those stocks are ALREADY up a ton, yes ? and this, from the very people who, last summer 1998, when I went bullish, wrote that Japan would NOT improve, dig ? late, as usual, and, stocks are now too high, and NOT bargains in any way....the pattern never changes....remember, he is a sharp guy....and his 'fundamental story' may be correct eventually....but here, I am just talking about their 'stocks prices' --- two different things, right ? ....3) WSJ, 12/12, showed that "mobile commun." stocks best 1999 performaers, by a long shot....hmmm, seems I recall not too long ago, that all the 'experts and brokerage analysts' hated them, yes ? saying wireless/phones/tech., etc., would NOT survive/prosper, because their costs were too high, the infrastructure needed would be hampered/incomplete nationwide/local, and the 'asian contagion', etc., would hurt this industry, remember ? Now, of couse, many of those stocks are parabolic, and those same guys LOVE them all up here, yes ? the pattern never changes....keep in mind, NO one loves the Steels, or the Golds, or the Health, or the Cap. Goods stocks down here, right ? just musing....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) in past NL's, I specifically mentioned: 'HGSI.' as an impending top, while "the 95 %" (and CNBC) become ridiculously bullish on it, and here it is ? and, 'CORL', which I gave out near its lows last year, when the "experts" all said would go completely under, remember ?, and now look at it....they all LOVE it now, dig ? and, see how "COL", which we bought at its lows, in beautiful base last year, when everyone else hated it 'fundamentally', is now LOVED by them all, see it ? and, last, see how low "DAB" has gotten, since Wall St. loved it at its top, as with the others, I was the first/only to have given them out, all alone before their big price turns....and, remember 'INPR', which I was certainly the first/only to have given out at its lows, when "the experts" all said their business would literally disappear, just last year....last, the O.C. Register, 12/11, front-page, "STMI: after restruturing, company is rebounding...." another similar article --- printed only AFTER its stock, which I also specifically gave you herein at its 'base lows', is ALREADY up a ton, dig ? a great sentence has an analyst who admits he hated it near lows, "again rates it a buy again (only) up here...." I am not kidding....another great "PSYCLE sm comment", said, "last year, we were in drastic conditions....nobody wants to throw money at a company if it is going to be gone in 60 days." My point exactly....re-read my "Mastering Psychology" booklet....that guy did not say "might be gone", he said, "is going to be gone" --- right at its bottom ! And they pay these guys ?

all 7, directly doing the opposite of what all the "news/Media/analysts" were saying, yes ? come to think of it, 'MNMD', also, now down as predicted, though their 'story' was soooo great -- right at its top ....What do these 7 stocks-patterns tell you now ? See the patterns/stages ? Just a little special knowledge and patience....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Prudential, only now, lowered opinion on "HMT", from 'buy' to "outperform"....see ? they love it all the way down, then, even after it breaks a base (and we cut small loss), yet they retain their "outperform" rating on it....hmmmm, no stop-loss for them, all the way down, and no sell, ever, get it ? the pattern never changes....gee, if it had tripled, they would probably raise their rating to 'phenomenal new buy'....AFTER the big rise, yes ? and they get paid for that kind of 'advice' ?

e) more general items proving why one must ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) you should know, that, for 20 years, I was a registered expert on Life Insurance, facts, etc., at major brokerage firm(s)....While the real story of L.I. is a long and scary one, on many levels, recent scare-stories and ads about "Term Insur." rates skyrocketing soon, due to new laws enacted, are basically hooey, so please do NOT be fooled or overreact or believe than....the competition among firms in that I.G., is so intense, some rates could actually decrease....in any case, that, alone, will keep rates much lower than the rip-off-pitchmen are saying, dig ? just be cool about this....even brokerage firms, and internet companies have contributed to the hysteria....(welcome to the future, ay ?) ....2) L.A. TImes, 11/12, Howard Roseberg's Media column, "the new language of TV news", said, "Ia m numbwith the spate of 'Breaking news' reports we are bombarded with, almost daily....items of little import, overreported ad infinitum ....It used to be that when "Breaking News" flashed across the screen, it really meant something of magnitude and importance....but now, 'Breaking News' might be a puppy trapped in a water pipe story, that has been reported continually since 8 am ....and car chases, etc." Sage comments, from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v. meanwhile, they miss or mis-report, etc., other more helpful items....but you already know this....

As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means it was held even shorter-term than that....

Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....