1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) the T-Bond at 105, Thu. recovery high, should begin to carve out a probable rounding top....think of the T-bond soon, becoming as "Crude Oil" was as it topped, over a few months, dig ? in each case, I will, as usual, be among the first/only to have foreseen it and given specific stocks and I.G. ideas for you to take advantage of herein, yes ? ....2) and, as usual, viewing the ".HMO" MS Healthcare index' forming an I-saw-it-first, S.T. top, CNBC chowed it Wed. 11 am, but in light of MER saying they LIKE those stocks way up here ! amazing, huh....they will never learn.... 3) by Thu., new recovery Low in Crude, $ 27+, a five-month low, to which I say, you heard it hear from the top first...."But, Jim, you just don't understand the fundamental dynamics at work.... Crude will rise to well over $ 40. bbl., forever, no risk, etc." yadda, yadda...." you're welcome....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) as I was first to predict, here come all the "Silicon Valley area worsens finally" stories: 12/12 L.A.T., "Bay area market feels pinch of 'dot-com' Fall....as chunks of sublease office space has come back onto the commercial R.E. market...." and/but, as usual, they say, "no one is pushing the panic button....old economy is starting to look good again....even if ofc. rents were to fall 10 to 20 %, would still be VG economically...." All normal 'stage 5' comments, yes ? 2) same L.A.T., headline, in Accent section, no less, "From Party Hardy to Party hardly", mentiones how, now, Silicon Valley Xmas parties are gonna be way toned down, because the bloom is off the rose for them, get it ? another stage 6 sign, yes ? ....3) and, same L.A.T., headline about how "Tech. companies are now a drain on the elec. power grid" in California ....oh, I get it: everyone loved them when their stocks were high, and now they areactually blaming those same companies after their stocks get beaten....nice form, Media....NOT.
4) L.A.T. 12/12, front-page puff-bullish piece on "HOTT" stock - as usual, with stock already up from $ 15 to 43 - get it ? the pattern rarely changes ....oy....of course, HOTT stock is already correcting nicely as expected.... 5) while I correctly hammer them often, I gotta give 12/12 L.A.T. kudos for article, somewhat inferring that Elec. Util. stocks may have a S.T. top, or at least "stall".... 6) and further kudos for them, same issue, for full-page article, "Bargain Hunters Stalking (depressed) dot-coms"....showing a list 'culled for fundamental screens', having, RAZF 2.56, BRNC 4.50, ACOM 4.13, CYSV 5.38, SAPE 12.50, RMDY 19.25, and another "picked at random', having, MRCH 1.22, ICGE 6.44, PCLN 2.25, RHAT 7.19, ATHM, ELNK 6.84....rare, huh....interestingly, all have some "analyst backing/research liking them down here" - and/but of course, those analysts/B-firms also loved them from their super-high-tops, right ? we shall see....
7) another headline, L.A.T. 12/12, "Earnings warnings may be losing their shock value", correctly infers that the worst maybe over soon for Techs-wise, vs. continuing worsening fundamentals, eactly as I shared with their jerk-business-ediitor last year, which no need for me to elaborate on, right ? at least I evidently got through to some of them somehow....it is amazing how difficult others make this process, needlessly.... 8) CNBC's Tom 'NASDAQ wall drone' Costello, Wed., 11 am, IN-correctly said, "the Chip/Semi. stocks are getting really beaten up here, down 4 % today....", when, in fact, they have already BEEN 'beaten up", right ?, and, amazingly, also, MER and Salomon finally downgraded the 'chip equip. sector' - as usual, only AFTER huge unpredicted-by-them, predicted-only-by-me drops, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) Wed., more analysts actually began to downgrade RAZF, amazing, huh....and seeing MAXM, another only I gave as Put near stage 4 high, lower still, I just laugh....the pattern rarely changes....while another Chem. stock, EK (recall, I have been the first/only to give some of those out herein from recent lows, longside), actually rose on further 'bad fundamental news'.... as usual, ay ? ....2) I love it, recently Oakley announced they are buying back tons of stock -at $ 19, get it ? where were they at $ 5+, when, as you know, I was first/only, to recommend buying its stock ? the pattern rarely changes....
3) Jim (also overrated) Flanigan, L.A.T. 12/10, front-page article, "NO end in sight for rise in Nat. Gas prices", probably signals, as usual, at least the beginning of the end of that amazing trend....he wrote that $ 9.-plus NG will be with us for longer than most people assume - even as a few analysts he interviewed correctly (in my opinion) said, a pullback towards the $ 5 to 6 area will ensue soon....similarly, I say, to the recent Crude pullback, dig ? ....4) in yet another good example of my "PSYCLE sm" in force, Mon., MRK announced they are increasing their sales force big-time for their AIDS drug, which they say is real close to fruition - and their STOCK (two different things, right ?) barely budged....dig ? already way up, and sideways recently.... 5) and we'll test the 'believed by the 95 %' concept, that, in Calif. anyway, recent supposed 'elec. power problems crunch', might help APCC stock from $ 11++, get it ? of course, that 'obvious item' may not work automnatically (re-read my Booklets), as APCC fell under $ 11, Fri., so we shall see....not on my list....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) John 'overrated and on CNBC's payroll' Bollinger, Tues. 12;30, asked, 'what next for the market ?", again, droned on without giving us even his recent track record of predictions, and said, "well, that's the big question isn't it....if X happens we could rise, if Y happens, we could fall lower...." Gee, thanks yet again for another waste of good airtime, all.... 2) L.A.T. 12/12, the "two overrated guys who are not even analysts but don't get me started", now love "DRYR" after it is already up a ton, and hate TOY, which, by me, may become a buy on a pullback....as usual, ay ? why they are still allowed to do this, is beyond me.... 3) in a surprisingly clear prediction, CNBC, Thu. 8:40, Bill Seidman flat-out dislikes all Bank stocks, all but saying to short them, wow....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) recent "ask Marilyn" column (the super-genius gal, right ? asked, "which is the greater problem today: ignorance or apathy ?", she correctly replied, "ignorance....we are snowed with so much misinformation, many people don't know what to beleieve anymore....even worse, some THINK they know what to believe, but they are wrong." I agree....not a good sign.... 2) add to this, the recent ridiculous salaries some Baseball players just signed for, which may jive with 'the end of the super-good times' which I have, so far, correctly foreseen for you herein in recent past months ? we shall see....as if sports-team-owners are somehow among the brightest, which, as anyone knows, ain't so....
2) meanwhile, recent L.A.T. headline, "Downtown L.A. to see 55 % increase in apartments and condos supply", echoes more of what I recently predicted herein - that supply/building will increase a bit, to meet decreasing dmeand in many areas of R.E., just as I taught you happens from this stage.... 3) recent L.A.T. said the FCC thankfully decided NO, to '10-digits to dial ALL phone numbers in the U.S.', at least not yet....oy....but whew, for now....they said not even a crisis situation yet with supply of phone numbers, as I first reported to you 2 years agao herein....as proof, they cited that "telephone carriers are nowhere close to having allocated even 60 % of their existing supply of phone numbers"....'nuff said....(br>
Fri., heard that Hillary Clinton may receive a multi-million-dollar fee for her memoires, "which may present an ethics problem".....well, duh....don't get me started on politicians and ethics....anyway, interesting that reporter said, there are rules against this in the House, but not in the Senate....interesting, huh....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
bal. calls UIS (10+ to 16-) for 200% Gain....bal. calls PRGN (15+ to 25++) for VVVQ 175% G....1/2 pos. puts DDIC (38+ to 27+) for VVVQ 111% G....bal. calls INCY (26+ to 33) VVVQ 125% G....1/2 pos. calls AMAT (38+ to 49) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. calls AWA (9 to 11+) for VVVQ 100% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. PDG (7++ to 9+) for L.T. 40% G....1/2 pos. calls VOD (34- to 40-) for 66% G....1/2 pos. calls WCOM (15 to 18) for VVVQ 80% G.... 1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. BTO (6++ to 8+) for L.T. 40 % G....
and/but, longs, F., MLS, LTV, FFIV, MTP, ATYT, 2nd pos. LRW ?, PLL ?, AII. ?, OCN ?, CNS ?, LOR ny, and, puts, none, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....I would not be surprised if our QSL's turn out to be fakeout breakouts, but we must conserve portfolio capital here hwre we can....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. CPWR @ 7-, 1/2 pos. HRP @ 6+, 1/2 pos. MTZ @ 26, 1/2 pos. PHSY @ 10+ ?, SIL @ 8 5/8, 1/2 pos. TTE @ 3.06 ?, (note, did NOT buy TLK, as it broke)
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ALU @ 3 5/8, AMAT @ 38+, AN @ 5 5/8, BC @ 17-, BGO @ 0.405, CEL eh, CHB @ 2 7/8, CHINA @ 6 1/8 ?, CTB @ 9+, EFII. @ 13+, FUN @ 18-, FRT @ 19, GEB @ 1., GSR @ 0.43, GY @ 7 5/8, HA @ 1 7/8, HNV @ 0.28, IOM @ 4, JCP @ 9 ?, KM ?, KRY @ 7/8, LEA @ 20+, LGTO @ 9-, LOJN @ 7, LOR @ 4- ?, MRCH @ 1+, MWL @ 4-, ODP @ 6+, PHC @ 18++, PKS @ 14+, RAD @ 2 1/2, ROC @ 5.06, TRAC @ 1-, WSM @ 16+...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, GILTF, APCC, INSP, STSA, TLK, MXR, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. AFL @ 70+ eh, 1/2 pos. EOG @ 49+,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') AVE @ 78+, CBL @ 24.4 eh, CEFT @ 45++, DUK @ 90-, FPL @ 66+, FRX @ 140, HBC @ 76, MRK @ 92++, UNH @ 120,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, ,
and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put",
as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken
off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their
charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime
benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were
'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", FBN, NGEN, CD, IN, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, OSIP, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks ....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
many more nice further Winners for you: UIS 16 1/4 up 2 1/4 (S), ICGE 6.65 up 0.69, FOX 18.68 up 1, WCOM 18.7 up 1, AMAT 50+ up 2 (S), ELNK 8.25 up 0.87, FRT 19.68, CTB 9.68, DDR 13 1/4, BC 18.43, FON 25.81, AIR 12 1/4, ODP 6.81, SFE 8 1/8, LEA 21 7/8, TSP 14 3/4, ODP 6.93, AAI. 6 11/16, higher, since last time here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
PKS 15.68, TGX, NXTL 35-, PLL, LOJN 7.812 up 0.81, LEA 20 1/4, 21 7/8, AMAT 38.4, LRCX 14 3/4, HCM, KM, TSO, ANAD 18 1/2, SUSQ 14.81, ELNK 7.18, CNS, MRBA 4 3/4, FFIV 25, HA, TKR 14.18, EFII. 13 1/2, MWL 3 7/8, AWA 10 3/4, CEL, DT 33+, DLM 7.81, INCY 28 3/4, LGTO 9, SVRN 7.15, DLX, ARG, WSM 16.56, GLT, AKS 8.8, ABF, UAL 36, KLU 4.68, N., STK 9 5/8, HLIT 9 1/8, MU 35-, 36+, CHB 3.18, FUN....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) MRCH 2 up 3/4, VOD 37-, CNS, NCI. 3.18, AM, AII, STEI. 1.81, 2.21, AN 5.56, CHINA 6 1/8, KDE, ALU, KM 5 1/8, GEB 1., LOR, FMT, RAD, OCN, ODP, IOM 4, LGTO 8 3/4, CHB, CTB 9.18, CEL 10-, JCP 9, CVD 9 5/8, 10 1/2, BNP, PLL, ORB, VIXL, ZMBA....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
more nice drops for you: DDIC -10 1/4, FRX -8 1/2, HBC -5, DUK -3, EPG -2, XOM +3, -4, down/further since last NL here....and, QLTI, ANTC 8+, down even further....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HRP, FRT, HCN, CWN, DDR, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, ARJ, TCO, FUN, CRO eh, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (AN, UAL, AWA, RWY, LOJN, ABF ?, CTB, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (KLU, BMG, BGO, N, AKS, SIL, etc.)
Farm/Land/Fert., Aero./Def., Housing-related/Furn., Ind. Groups....
and, Online Brokers/Financials (SVRN, OCN ?, IFS)
and, Commun. (and 'long-distance stocks' ? MWL, CEL eh, PHI, DT, FON, WCOM, etc.), and, Chem. (CCC, ROH, DD, GY), also, Retail (KM, CNS, ODP),
Health-relateds (ALU, ALI. no)
and, of course, some of the 'busted Techs/Semis/Telecoms', as EVB's, just below....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not broken, before
you buy, if at all) added, (mostly busted Techs) JNIC, EGLS, FOX, MTP, TSM, BC, HNV, KEA, LII, TWN, TRAC, CEBC, AFFX eh, DITC ?, CLRN, CTB, IOM, CPWR, ELON, HOMS, PMTC, VSEA, SPLS ?, to, STM, SFN ?, UNA ?, TNB, EFII, SYMC, ROC, GCR ?, GSR, KRY, to, STK, AMZN, PHSY, BKC, PMD ?, MRBA, TKR, FRT, GPC, HIB, BANR, CHRS, SIL, BMCS, JWN, MTZ, LOR ?, GT, PKS, ANAD, LDG, LRCX, CELL, FBN, CHB, HRP, IN, COHU, AIR, FBN, LZB, DT, CDO, SRR, AEN, CSDS, NCI, LOJN, LEA, JCP, PHC, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, NHR,
MLS ?, JDN....close stops again....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, WGR, EPG, BAX, DDIC, TEVA, AFL, MANU, the NYSE 'defensive index' (food, tobacco, etc.), to, AZA, AVE, HMA, FPL, IDPH, NTRS, AMRI, CERN, EXBD, NTRS, APH, FRE ?, CMX, XL, CLX, PGR, FRX, GIS, MRK, MTB, CAH, RKH, RDA ?, CPL, MNY, PPL, SPC, DA, CTIC, DUK, HP, HCA, to,
(repeats) DFXI, ELF, ESRX, COF, MANH, FPC, EPG, IMPH, IMGN, OSIP, CGP, MRX, BLDP, PLXS, from recent past NL's....again, note smaller list....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Utilities, Insur./Mtg., Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES