1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
Just as last time I said, with Puttables, one must stay the course, and still be in 'some' Puts, regardless, up here -- now, on the Longside, with our depresseds, for tax-selling bounces, I see a growing list of stocks with decent-enough patterns to take advantage of here (see Sec. (3) and (6)), diversifying....What does that tell you about "the market" here, regardless of enduring some Q, S, losses along the way ?

Just the last few weeks, the NYSE's A/D line has lost over 10,000 net declines, wow....And I hear/read/see almost no 'worry' on the part of the 'lucky holders' of parabolic stocks, do you ? I wonder how much of that still-only-on-paper money they already have spent....and how veryfew of them will even protect any of their positiuons before the falls....meanwhile, CNBC"s Bob Pisani on the exch. floor, Thu., said that all the traders he spoke with, have been seeing the most 'tax-loss-selling', in many years, maybe ever....Hence the small-breaks-of-patterns I suggested here might occur, leading to more Q, S, losses among Longside issues, below, recently, etc. A tremendously "split" market, still, for us....but one has to realize,that more than half the Q, S, Longside Losers, will end up revalidating/rising, in the next 2 months, anyway, a normal historical "PSYCLE sm" dynamic this time of year, causing many people to kick themselves for selling near their 1999 lows, right ? In the past 20+ years, every time I go through a rare period as recently, some followers kick themselves for abandoning the longside or putside, prematurely....

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more, as befits market conditions....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage, over time.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:1) viewing the pullbacks of TOY, MAT, etc., in DECEMBER ("but, Jim, don't toy stocks always rise around/before Xmas ?"), illustrates how 'real or perceived fundamentals' CANNOT automatically be somehow applied all the time, to yield easy results....both remain buys on pullbacks, in still-existing bases....not great, but serviceable.... 2) for those out there would must have a "reason" (re-read my "Scenarios" booklet), Tues., CNBC mentioned one, 10:50 am, that, "because of Y2K fears, many companies might have stocked up on computer memory 'chips' inventories, which, in their opinion, may lead to Lower earnings/sales in the first Q of 2000 (and I add, beyond ?)", hence, the beginnings of price drops in the stocks I was the first/only to have given out herein as puttables in section (7) recently....of course, as you know, we don't 'do' 'stories'....but, as taught you, sometimes they help....you have had plenty of opportunity to have gotten some of their puts.... 3) note budding EVB's, in such big-name-but-now-hated stocks, like, JCP, PRD, HLT, MO, WMI., etc. Hmmmm....I.G.R. and/or tax-selling bounces coming ? ....4) as suggested last time here, I added some Transportaion stocks in section (3) and (6) below for you....and, while everyone seems to be bashing the Banks/Financial stocks, I add some, and, the T-Bond begins to look bottomy, S.T. here ? hmmmmm....could it be we will, again, be the first to catch some, longside, soon, sentiment-wise ? ....5) as I intimated recently, the DJ. Trans. index itself is trying to complete a little left-side-of-a-saucer bottom formation ....we shall see....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Tues. 10 am, a direct quote from CNBC's Bill Griffeth, "if the NASDAQ stocks can power higher, sometimes they have to power lower....the laws of Physics have yet to be defined...." Excuse me ? what the heck does THAT mean ? and, of course, he is wrong....just trying to attach (incorrect) prose, where unnecessary, because he could not come up with wnything germain to say, trying to 'create' a story (re-read my "Media" booklet), yes ? ....2) Tues., 10:40 am, in a story proving yet again how 'fundamentals' cannot automaticaly be 'linked' (re-read my "Scenarios" booklet) to assumed stock price moves, CNBC mentioned that, in 1998 Xmas, 'Candy' sales actually Fell, saying, "last year, people were just not as excited about chocolate"....Hmmmm....really ? I didn't think people would EVER not be excited about chocolate, did you ? but regardless, "HSY" stock Rose last season, it did not fall....amazing, huh....of course, the reporter did not show nor mention that fact, presumably, because it would have ruined his incorrect-but-'seasonal' story.... 3) CNBC's Bob Pisani incorrectly expounded, Wed., 10:05 am, "where is the rotation into the Bank stocks ? they have gotten killed this month...." Huh ? Exactly which Bank stocks have gotten "killed", Bob ? my goodness....the ignorance among some Media people is staggering....

4) CNBC, Thu., 8:35 am, over-reported a very "small" (to them, of course) $ 300. MM purchase of stock in "BBY", by MSFT, recently....gosh, MSFT could have bought the WHOLE COMPANY, back when BBY formed its predicted depressed "PSYCLE sm" base, for under $ 1. Bill., only about two years ago....now, they pay 15 times the base stock price, and get 'only' 4 % of BBY....Not to infer anything bad about either company, but just to show how, again, we see, almost NO one big ever buys ANY stock, near its base bottom, when things 'seemingly stink'....Of interest, as a good broker, I made an early MSFT employee-client a lot of money, several years ago, with my "PSYCLE sm" ideas (I even helped him choose to join MSFT, over other companies, which saved his career life ....then, he became an uncaring jerk with a too much money, and went back on his promises to introduce me to more high-level MSFT people, or anyone else for that matter, though his family welcomed me strongly, then I never heard from him again, a pattern I have observed over the years, but I digress....thanks for letting me vent), and I once met Steve Ballmer of MSFT, one of the few real-nice-guy super-high-level Tech. people I have ever observed....I told him he had a chance to invest in me and my concepts, marketing, etc., on the ground floor, but he told me the 'others' of his level would not even entertain ten seconds to meet me, another pattern I have endured undeservedly over the years....is there a message there for us all ? ....5) CNBC's NASDAQ wall-guy, Thu., 9:05 am, said, "people, and portfolio mgrs., feel they 'need/must' absolutely be in the high-flying Tech. stocks here...." Hmmmm, usually a very late stage 3/early stage 4 signal, yes ?

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) another sign of an impending economic top ? Wed., 10:20 am, a gal from Harry Winston Jewelers, showing super-expensive items for Xmas, said, "they will ONLY increase in value forever, as all fine jewelry always does...." Oh, yeah ? what about the 50 % -plus, multi-year DROPS in diamond (and much top-quality Art, Sports and other collectibles) prices, at times, in the last 3 decades ? ....3) Wed., 10:40 am, CNBC's Bill Griffeth had an amazingly correct comment to the pres. of 'BVSN', saying, "look at your stock....just a year ago, it was $ 2-4., now it is $ 125.... all-of-a-sudden Wall St. has discovered your stock....yet you are pretty-much the same company as you were a year ago....nothing has really changed, right ? how do you explain this ?" The only comment I have, having taken one, very quick, very small loss trying to catch the obvious parabolic, stage 4 top likely to form from here, in BVSN, is, to note how CNBC only had this guy on, AFTER the stock has BEEN parabolic for months, dig ? the pattern never changes....

4) exactly as I predicted here earlier, L.A. Times, reported, 12/12, that "Millenium hotel/event celebration room rates" are FALLING, in Las Vegas, as, according to them, "the public is saying baloney" to exorbitant to price-gouging at major hotels, etc. They found that 59 of 61 hotels polled still had plenty of rooms available.... interesting, huh....and that room rates were "3 to 4 times" last late-year's rates ....and, "at least two strip hotels being only half booked for New Year's eve".... See ? another "pre-millenium assumption" by "the 95 % and the Media" which is not only NOT correct, but also UN-linkable to stock prices moves of companies they pitched, on which they now have losses.... 5) according to a study by the S.I.A. and the I.C.I., only 11 % of investors traded online in 1998, and 19 % in 1999.... and, less than 45 % of all equity owners did ANY transactions in 1998....and, in their poll, 50 % of investors, had equity assets still under $ 50,000.... surprised ? if that includes all their pensions, that is low, and worrisome to me.... 6) CNBC had pres. of "PAYX" on, Thu., 9:35 am, saying, "many firms on Wall St. are recommending it here"....since it is on my Puts list, around $ 39., so let's see who wins from here....when it was $ 25. recently, many firms did NOT like it....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts: 1) from CBS Marketwatch (thanks, subscriber S.V.), 12/8, Roy Blumberg, who loves only all the most strong stocks here, likes MGG, AMAT, NBR, SBL, KLIC, all stocks on my Puts list, up here....in an article titled, "A/D data bad, but the economy is strong...." Famous last words, presaging the recession, and corrections-among-extended techs, I see coming ? See, near tops, these kinds of "me too, late" (or, should I say, "me too late" ?) guys, always grasp at whatever financial items they can find, to justify only buying after parabolic rises, and never selling or hedging or protecting their newly added positions in strong stocks, dig ? (re-read my Mastering Psychology" booklet)....He also specifically said, "no other (depressed) stocks will be rewarded." So, let's fade him, yes ? ....2) WSJ, 12/12, a similar column by SmartMoney's Steven "most always only jumping into what already rose, late, which he did not necessarily like anywhere near their lows anyway" Schwartz, said, "GE would be hard to replace in any portfolio because they are in so many businesses." So what ? So, now the best criteria for buying/holding a stock, is only that they are in a ton of different businesses ? oy. He also loves, JDSU, WPI. (which also loved at its highs), QWST, COVD, TSM & ADI, (both which I specifically gave out herein at its lows, in mid-1998), here....too LATE.... What I detest the most about these columns, is that he gets free undeserved publicity from WSJ, and guys like me, who are way better, on so many levels, languish, and they won't even give us the time of day....what a shame for their millions of readers....oh, the title of his column, was, "Beyond the Obvious"....apropos, since I just pointed out, what he did not....

3) with big drop in 'VRTY' (which, I was the first/only to have given you herein, but just missed it, below), Wed., CNBC reported, 11:10 am, that, "now brokerage firm analysts are lining up to lower their ratings on this stock down here...." The pattern never changes, ay ? They should have lowered their opinions at the top, yes ? For the upteenth time: B-firms hardly EVER give outright 'sell' opinions, nor even 'hedge' nor 'lighten up' opinions....

e) more general items proving why one must ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) L.A. Times, 12/12, a big recent study, for the week ending 11/28/99, listing details on major Web shopping sites, said, except for EBAY (where visitors evidently spend - are you ready for this - an avg. 52 minutes per trip), on NO other web shop site, do people spend more than 10-15 minutes on average....only 8 sites had over 1 million visitors.... and only 25, had over 400,000 visitors that week....I say, this is NOT a ringing endoresement for the ridiculous 'parabolic-anticpating-the-universe-will-be-theirs-forever' valuations on Internet stocks....Remember, not every visitor buys stuff, every time, either, right ? Am I missing something, in my attempt at reasonable logic, from here ? I should tell you, that, except for a NL or information or investment quote service, I personally have NEVER ordered anything like a book, movie, music, toy, clothing, or anything else, ever, via the web....and I do not even remotely trust sellers or buyers on auction sites....And very few of my successful, intelligent, computer-owning friends have done so, either....Also remember, whatever products are sold via those web sites, will, by nature, have had their Most visitors/buyers, around this time of year, anyway, right ? So, let's see how bad things get for those companies, After this special season, yes ? (and how the Media is unlikely to report THAT, as much, when the time comes -- until those stocks are already down a bunch, right ?), and caveat emptor in those stocks, up here, of course....

f) let me get this straight: Wed., 1:00 pm, I heard, on CNBC, that, "some people are selling stocks now, because of Y2K fears"....but, MSFT, INTC, MOT, ORCL, etc., are breaking out/up....Then I heard, that, "even if people sell before Y2K, on/after 1/1/00, they will buy everything back anyway, so extended stocks cannot fall then, much, either, and will rise even higher after their fears are asuaged"....So, I guess, parabolic stocks can not fall, at all, ever, yes ? watch out ?

As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means it was held even shorter-term than that....

Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....