1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

shockingly, upon viewing new charts Sun. 12/14, if I didn't know better (but I do), I'd say some major indexes looks upwardly-explosive, s.t. and/but the D.G. 10d A/D Osc. has multiple tops AND bottoms, so am really unsure which way from here, but leaning opp. the 95 % bulls....that said, the 'we supposedly captured Saddam hussein alive" Mon. 15th early one-hr. pop-and-failrue in stocks prices, would normally smack of a 'fake-out' sucker-em-in-up-here v.s.t. anyway, dig ?, and, unfortunately, Erlanger, 2 days later, says the same thing, oy....

another pot. s.t. top anyway sign, as recent LAT big headline when DJIA hit 10 K (dgms), "could 10,000 DJIA now, equal 1,000 in 1982 ?" chart (oy)....they stupidly imply that the 'after-16-year-base from 1966 to 1982', run from Dow 700 to 11K, may = recent -only -5-yr. non-base'....what, are they taking drugs ?, also, all we hear/read is how 'the econ. rebound looks real and sustainable, on high optimism now"....if only they would read my stuff, ay ?

in another amazingly inept tome, the wrong-for-a-long-while-now-even-with-finding/adding more 'indicators' to prove this bearish tambor, Erlanger now says, "we see no selling pressure....no one wants to sell stocks here"....uh, well, duh....gee, ya think so ?, and, if so, how come HE and no other perma-bears have seen this coming ?, we again remind you, the Fibonnacci initial 38.2 % rally-resistance on the SPX is right here around 19060, as i mentioned months ago herein....

and, recent chartbooks showed me tons of NAZ techs have already pb to their rising 200 DMA....as (dgms) 12/03 issue SmartMoney (an oxumoron if ever existed, as u know), may have helped the s.t. top scenario with article p.63, "Bubble ?, or Mere Frenzy ?", get it ?, they ridiculously interviewed idiots who are actually eqauting recent stocks activity with 'early 1999" (yeah, right....dgms), saying misleadingly, "NAZ stocks have risen like a rocktet....ashtonishing rise.... Chinese internet stocks skyrocketing....so many stocks doubling....an air of frenzy....an indiscriminate scramble for lottery stocks....a surge in margin debt....surge in online trading....maybe will be better, then worse than hte last bubble....1933 was one of the best years for stocks, ever....an oversetimation of technology's role in the economy (huh ?)....the phantom of a web supermarket rides again...." at least, finally, at the end, the writer did finally mention AMZN, SNDK, and some techs just plain to high here....

Erlanger's 'sentiment tank' reads 0, zero, meaning, super-duper-bearish.... but, then, his mid-term & long-term gauges read slightly bullish, rising.... how clear is that - yeta agin....he says no one is buying puts, period....writing, "we are going crazy trying to figure out how things could have been, and ccould be, as they have been, and are, with stocks refusing to fall for so long, given the indicators readeings, for a while now"....get it ?

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) just fyi, the US $, as I reported herein years ago, has had previous multi-year downer periods, like, 1971 to 1978, 1985 to 1196, and we are only 2+ years into the recent dollar decline....but, as U might surmise, while everyone else in the world is bearish here (even the 95 % who never predicted the fall, as usual), I wonder, and the DXY made another new low at 88.18 after Saddam's 'capture'...oh, and the OCR only recently front-page headlined, "the dollar sinks anew", showing 2-year chart, get it ?, where the hell have they been ?, oh, yeah, ignorant and late and useless, as usual ....2) as usual, only now does B.S. love, UNH, HAL, MOT, dgms.... 3) the TNX bond yield, as expected, back down to 4.182 %, so, next move above 111 or below 106 will be it....I worry a bit here, so lightening up some more here, but not going crazy selling bonds, yet....just viewing the TNX yield chart, looks almost like it is gonna roll over and yield fall again, hmmmm....oh, and, just fyi, a close below 402+, then 397++ in Gold, would mark at least a s.t. top there....

4) I am not putting it formally, but, so far, even tho it kinda looks like will bo higher anyway, the DJTA has 4-year-back resistance around the 3,000 area, of course, see it ? ....5) nat. gas rose another buck to 7.25 mcf, unpredicted by me....and light sweet crude just over $ 33. now, ditto....so, of course, with rarely-correct NL'sonly now calling for $ 10-15 bbl. N.G. prices, your govt. now calling for an 'inquiry'....as "those of us IN the N.G. storage ind., see trends which should call for LOWER n.g. prices, not higher"....hmmmm....dgms....

6) also note cash Copper hit $ 1.00 , 1st time in 6 yrs. - recall who has been near-perfect, for edecades now, suggesting herein buying Copper in the 50-60 cent multiple-base support, and normally selling in the 1.20-1.40 area, yes ?, i even used to show v.l.t. copper chart in my many books/seminars/marerials, yes ?, interestingly (not), no special 'news' accompnaied recent realization from 'the 95 %' that it had ALREADY risen a bunch, as usual inmy "PSYCLE sm", yes ? the pattern rarely changes....you missed it ?, you should do what I suggest more, as should million so people and pros, ay ? i again rest my case....

7) you're welcome, as I gave you yet another takeover, Dial (DL) got a merger at high price, note previous long base in DL, learning my patterns ?, if not why not ? ....8) B.S. just wrote kinda-bearish tome (but they love extended high-RS stocks, yes ?, dgms), about SPX, citing 5 huge mkt. cap stks. as having lower-than-SPX RS lately, even with many stocks up a lot....GE, MSFT, WMT, JNJ, PFE, each have mkt. caps of 150-300 B., but B.S.'s comments are way too late, since he like d them 'because of their high RS", months ago, and did not do well in them, dig ?, also did not like depr. techs. a year ago....dgms....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Govt., etc.:
1) in its latest staggeringly-misleading headline announcement, your Conference Borad just proclaimed - get this - "2004's econ. growth of +5.7 % more, will make it the best year in the US economically, since 1983".... 2) your pres. Bush just announced his "hopes to cut deficit in half by 2009", which is about as meaningless a statement as that ignorant guy has ever said....'no specific plan was provided', the article said.....and your point is ? ....3) and, for the umpteenth time, the ever-bearish TDR 'mogamo guru' jerk, again pointed out, that, even in the throes of a.t. US dollar lows, your govt. bt. another $ 9 B. of debt, and foreign govts. also bt. billions of dollars, recently....and your govt. issued another $ 17 B. in debt the last 2 wks. alone.... oh, and Doug (ever-gold-bull' Casey only now says, "gold is not only going thru the roof, it's going to the moon !", another reason to go EZ on gold up here, yes ?

4) recent LAT headline, "US govt. targets counterfeit commerce", made, as usual, a misleadingly big deal out of - get this - only around $ 100 mmm./yr., most in cigs and video piracy....in a $ 4 T. economy....as if that's gonna make a significant dent....god forbid they should actually target something REALLY worth targeting, ay ?.... 5) and more shame on WMT, as their latest BS commercial for XBOX, actually shows a 20's aged couple doiong nothing all day but playing XBOX (dgms), the guy's tag line being, "you gotta have XBOX....after all, what else is there to do ?", which just about says it all about how your society has degenerated, ay ? ....oh, and, allied, saw recent Unsolicited ad e-mail for 'the best hit songs of the 1980's", which, as you know, is an oxymoron, as the 80's were eclipesed only by the 90's, for the worst decades ever in music....dgms....

6) and more anti-kudos to your Media, as usual, on the FLU story....scaring the hell out of millions of people who might be helped with better/different info., ay ?, anyway, the Media, and your Govt., cont. to pander to the nasty big Drug companies (see new terrible medicare health bill recently), but provided a near-perfect EVB trading stock opp., which I specifically gave you herein recently.....to wit: MEDI makes "Flumist, an expensive and not always covered by H.I. plans, pot. help for under-age-49 people who are relatively healthy already....just a month ago, your Media proclaimed, "tons of flu vaccinations avail. for this season....Flumist doses due to be thrown away" - and MEDI formed an EVB (re-read my Booklet, right ?), at $ 23. in my NL herein.... now, a month later, they proclaim, "flu vaccinations running out....Flumist may be an alternative" - get it ?, proves my "PSYCLE sm" yet again....you're welcome....too bad I have not had a national audience, i might have saved millions more people's health a bit, yes ?, I again rest my case....

then, the HSI health NL, for alternative remedies to mainstream, kinda pans the Flumist alternative, saying, "well, even the FDA said unsafe if under age 6 or older than age 49", and, "its label says side effects of nasal congestion, cough, sore throat, and runny nose"....more conflicting info., so what does a person do or not do, now, for n.t. health ? the CDC, pushing Flumist ignorantly (I wonder why, dig ?) even recommends "staying away from anyone who just got a Flumist shot, for a week after they got the shot"....what kind of 'great drug' is that ?, dgms....and, why is Flumist only approved under age 6 and over 49 ?, anyway, your govt. made the wrong vaccine in the 1st place, dig ?, and has mercury and ammonia and aluminum in it, dgms....our tax dollars (not) at work....and I also read again, where DDT is the safest side-effect-free pesticide around, yet the eco-frauds have all but banned it - to the detriment of the world and food supplies, dgms....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) evidently, 3 separate 'consumer sentiment' readings FELL recently, accoridng to the U. Mich. - while we know such crapola means zip historically as FAPPV factors, it is interesting that 'the experts' expected HIGHER readings, and they are all, instead, falling, hah.... 2) read article recent LAT, "Southern China faces elec. power woes, shortage", I laugh....gee, if China is 'growing' so 'fast', and is 'the best place to invest up here', why are they still having major structural problems ?, because they are still not 'there' yet !, geez....of note, evidently, the govt. there has not been funding their power grid, anywhere nearly enuf....wonder where all the huge growing trade dollars-from-USA have been going ? as with our l.t. power probs, how stupid are China govt. people, as well ? ....3) read in TDR where evidently, the US econ. has actually LOST -1.4 mm jobs "since the recovery BEGAN"....hmmmm.... 4) TDR also writes, "what people don't know is that China's recovery/growth is now unsustainable, financed totally by extension of massive amts. of debt"....gee, so has ours in USA been, ay ?, they imply that sooner or later, China will have to cut back on credit as well, hurting the world, and the US, a different way....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) only now does B.S. like WGO stock - amazing, huh, as the pattern rarely changes from 'the 95 %' ....2) and non-kudos to ridiculous "journal of Amer. Finance", who, only now, announces in their Unsolicited e-mail BS, "China is the best play"....gee, where the hell have they been ?, dgms, 'nuff said....only recently launching their undeservedly-well-financed next NL, "the China Club", smacks of late/high, PSYCLE-wise, yes ? are U learning the patterns ?, if not, why not ? thay even cited another lousy NL, saying, "if you can name a China stock off the top of your head, you probably shouldn't buy it" - which, of course, makes no sense on several PSYCLE levels....yeah, right - if you can name ANY stock off the top of your head, by their illogic, one should never buy that stock, ever, right ?, oy, dgms....'nuff said....oh, last of China, this past week, China Life, held the LARGEST $ global IPO in 2003, raising $ 3 B.....NOT bullish activity, sentiment-wise, ay ?

3) and, once again, Navallier (dgms) proclaimes, "urgent new sell signel ! - but, dont get me wrong, we're still buying....but out sell now list is growing by 20 % a month, to , now, 234 big-name blue-chips to sell" - clear enuf for ya - yet again ?, he doesn't even acknowledge that he was bearish most of the way up in those, and others, the last several months, ay ? oh, and he has been aligned with InvestorPlace for a while now, 'nuff said....then, after reiterating he is "still buying", his next headline is "widespread destruction, rot"....got that ? ....4) more bad-news-for-the-perma-bears, kin-of, but TDR's new book has reached # 1 on the biz best-sellers list in NYT....just shows 'the 95 %' will still, NEVER change their behaviors....dig ?, good l.t. for us, as my "PSYCLE sm" continues to work similarly to most-often, ay ?, in a way, whew.... 5) and, last, Erlanger, Wed., finally wrote (read, 'punted'), "nothing worth doing will happen until after 1/5, due to the year-end stuff" - unbelieveable....

e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) continuing their nasty messed-up-ness, tyour White House actually bt. a very expensive PLASTIC xmas tree --- and from CHINA, no less....need I say more ? ....2) according to Elliott WAve's Robert Folsum (dgms), Soc. Sec. taxes are + $ 160 B. MORE than Soc. Sec. spending currently for 2003 in the USA"....huh ?, is that true ? if so, I read it nowhere else, and HELPS that $ 500 B./yr. fedl. deficit, yes ?, i mean, its bad we are being overtaxed now, but may help the USA l.t., yes ?, what do YOU think ? ....3) 12/14 item, LAT, "rising Calif. home prices worry experts....if things continue like this, some kind of a housing price bubble will form in So. Calif., we are conserned that prices cont. to rise, instead of falling, with higher int. rates" - uh, gee, ya think ? ,,,,4) also, LAT, "delinquent mtgs. falling" - gee, we have been told such late-payers have been RISING, yes ?, who is correct ?, and does it matter, with 'only' 4.28 % delinquent, the lowest rate evidently, since the 3Q of Y2K....the % of homes entereing foreclosure is up to 'only' 0.38 %, they wrote....

5) evidently, while the avg. WTC death claim paid about $ 1.6 mm, 'only' 2,200 out of nearly 4,000 death-people filed a claim at all (interest, huh), and, 1,360 'death claim awards' were issued....what say you about these numbers ? ....6) I just read whwre 'eastern gorcery workers reached past with Kroger", and for LESS Than So. Calif. workers got paid B4 their strike....hmmmm.... 7) have you noticed more a dn more 'studies' about how, supposedly, more and more 'famous/popular' herbs are, according to the new studies, IN-effective and a waste of $ ?, like, st. johns wort, gingko biloba, beta-carotene ?, well, now the latest slammed herb: echinacea....obviously, all funded by their 'enemy': the big drug companies.... but now, as i have been saying,we are totally confused....who is correct ?

8) and, following-up on Canadian Drug crap, only now, evidently, 10 u.s. state govts. worldwide are considering buying Canadian Drugs ('cheap, due to low US dollar' ?), dgms.... 9) recent Barron's article, Dr. T. Pretlow wrote, "few people know that the US has the lowest life expectancy rate among the 10 top established countries (used to have the highest as recently as in the 1950's), and the worst infant mortality rate of those 10 countries, and also the US pays twice the per capita on health care" - wow.....'nuff said....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....