1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) another opp. 4 U 2 learn the "PSYCLE sm" pattern: only Fri., did CNBC finally highlight the Restarant stocks - already up, dig ?, as, supposedly, a 'recession-affordability play', yadda, yadda, always occurs at this stage....anyway, obviously, one asks where were they and analysts at the lows, dgms....you know what to expect forward in these extended stocks, yes ? ....2) well, I did it again 4 U:, gave U the only (told U it was risky at the time) 'x-box' stock herein at lows, RVST a little over $ 1.00, yes ?, well, it just about hit $ 3.00 , you may take your Q, large % gain in it...."but, Jim, that was too risky"....backed by MSFT, uh, huh.... 3) and notice Golds popping while I hear NO one else out there even mentioning them, hmmmm.... a biut too late already for 'the 95 %', but I gave them out herein from ,ows, as usual, you're welcome.... 4) and, quietly, note growing list of Financial-longsiders in sec. (6).... 5) looks like I was, as usual, the first/only to give out extended Media stocks as puttables herein from recent highs 4 ya.... and, now, perhaps, railroad-relateds ?, I am certainly the first/only guy sayin gthat recently....
6) in new chartbooks, noted, more Puttable groups, like, cosmetics/personal care (NUTR, HELE, JCGI, NTOL, DLI), mobile/homes/RV's (WGO, CAV, DW, NOBH), computer svcs. (CACI, GIB, PER, ACS, TIER), e-commerce (UOPX, EBAY, CRYP, ROOM, EFTD), sompter, integrated sys. (KRON, QSII, MGEN, MEDW), and, HMO/s....but 'security/safety' may have broken even higher, so off list 4 now....all stocks listed are O'Darvasl's, not mine, highest RS on his list (dgms).... 7) note how, at least V.S.T., indexes pulled back from 200 DMA's, but Mon. strength interesting, semi-unexpected....and, you could have bought the Amer. Stk. Exch. index last week, interesting....
8) as i was among the first few to suggest, the 10-yr. T-bond yield rose, towards its july highs, still a little lways to go, but I do not expect new recovery high in yields, yet, but a pb in yields again, but no new lows in yield, either, a basing period, dig ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) idiot Bill Griffeth, CNBC, Fri., interviewing a major casual dining CEO (see above), actually asked, regarding how decent their biz seems 2 B (sic), "is it as if 9/11 never occured ?"....how crass was that....dgms.... 2) CNBC's Phil (dgms) Lebeau, Mon., actually mis-sensationalized, "retail stocks are up a WHOPPING +14 % since the after WTC lows", pitching a non-story, about a non-exciting I.G., from which no one can learn much, as usual....tons of other I.G.'s I gave out herein, are up a ton more, yes ? re-read my Booklets....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) there is a plethora of homes for sale around my key area now....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) well Dan (dgms) Sullivan, finally just came out with a buy signal, 12/5....uh, a little late/high, ay ?, as usual, the 'only buy high RS gang' is late....gee, if they could only learn to even try to buy near lows in bases or EVB's, but, the pattern rarely changes....I wish him and them well, but....
e) more general, political, misreported items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better,
and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains, 1 more Longs (plus several 'balances'), and, 5 more Puts:
bal. stk.on.mgn. CCRT (6 to 9) for 90% Gain....bal. stk.on.mgn. HMT (7- to 9+) for Q 75% Gain....bal. stock EMT (2.9 to 4.0) for 33% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. STXN (5+ to 8+) for % G....1/2 pos. calls IFC (14.5 to 18.4) for Q 135% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. PCTI (6+ to 9+) for 85% G....1/2 pos. puts RMD (60+ to 53) for Q 55% G....1/2 pos. puts RE (77 to 64-) for 88% G....1/2 pos. puts ABS (34- to 30+) for VVQ 44% G....1/2 pos. puts RCI (32+ to 30+) for VQ small % G....1/2 pos. puts FMBI (35 to 28) for VVVQ 80% G....
and/but, longs, bal. F., KM, AYE ?, FON ny, UTHR ? no !, and, puts, PHC, PG, UDR no ?, AMG !?, FISV, S. ?, EW, ACS, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
ALL @ , AWE @ 14, GSK @ , GSB @ 24, BOY @ , 1/2 pos. MC @ , 1/3 pos. NXY @ , 1/3 pos. UFI. ?, 1/2 pos. CTS @ 14 1/2, 1/2 pos. MCD @ 25+, 1/3 pos. NEM @ 19, 1/2 pos. ELON @ , 1/3 pos. SLGLF @ 0.095, 1/2 pos. DVN @ 33 ?, 1/2 pos. PEG @ 39++, 1/2 posa. FCEL (13+ ?,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions):
1/3 pos. RT @ 11, 1/2 pos. SPOT @ 20+, 1/2 pos. NNDS @ 20+, 1/2 pos. VLCCF @ 15+, 1/2 pos. VSAT @ 13, Q. @ 11 1/2,1/2 pos. AOL @ 31, 1/3 pos. TSS @ 19, 1/2 pos. SRP @ 14, ACPW @ 5+, 1/2 pos. TEO @ 6-, ACLA @ 4+, 1/2 pos. FON no ?,1/3 pos. CHRS @ 4.55, 1/3 pos. RRC @ 4-, AVGN @ 9+, TCC @ 9+, VRA @ 1.2, UTHR @ 8.7, DPL @ 22.75, AYE opb, WFII. @ 5+...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, , Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
I try
to give them alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones):
1/2 pos. GENZ @ , 1/2 pos. TECD @ , 1/2 pos. GSPT @ , 1/3 pos. PGR ?,
1/2 pos. COST @ 43-, FMBI. @ 35+, SFG @ 48-, 1/2 pos. VCI. @ 36, 1/3 pos. SMTC @ 43-, 1/2 pos. RCI. @ 32, LIZ @ 51, 1/2 pos. S @ 46+, SKYF @ 20+, 1/2 pos. KRI. @ 63, 1/2 pos. IBC @ 26-, 1/3 pos. DBD @ 40, 1/2 pos. ACE @ 40, 1/2 pos. IFF @ 31+, 1/2 pos. FTN @ 36++, 1/3 pos. HRB @ 41, EMIS @ 31-, 1/3 pos. HD @ 50, 1/2 pos. ITT @ 51+, EC @ 28, UB @ 38, CFBX @ 26, PFGC @ 34++, WBSN @ 28+,
"Repeats": AOT @ 25+, 1/2 pos. DRI. @ 32+, ASBC @ 36-, DF @ 46+, 1/2 pos. MAA @ 26, DL @ 18, 1/2 pos. GCI. @ 69++, 1/2 pos. ICBC @ 24+, UDR @ 14+, WMT @ 56,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, EMIS no ?, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in
sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", HGMCY, DTHK, PSD, ACXM, AU, ASA, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, PCSA, CSX, MER, IP, THC, UST, VFC, BSYS, ACDO, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.... again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
many more big winners for you, you're welcome:
TIE 4.28 up 0.53, WFII. 7.00 up 1.05, MTZ 6.38 up 0.98, Q. 13.77 up 2.13, GLBL 8.09 up 1, NNDS 22.35 up 2, SPOT 21.40 up 1, ABX 16.13 up 1.07, MCD 27.08 up 2.08, WAG 32.5 up 1.5, ALL 32.84 up , TCC 10.75, NEM 19.70 up 0.70, CASY 14 3/4, RT 10.90 (B), 12.00, APW 2.19, up/higher since last NL here....and, was BTY another 'fobd' ?
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or more Bounces after pullbacks:
almost every stock out there, dig ?, and, UTHR 8.55 (B), 9.65, BLS 38.78 up 1.33, CVAS 6.67, 6.08, 7.15, HBIO 8.5 pb, 9.0, GSPN 11.9 pb, PRM 2.66, Q. 11.5 (B), CLTK 12.22, AOL 33.75, 32.75, CCR 40, VSAT 14.82, BLS 27 1/2 up 1, AVGN 10.55, 9.90, KEYN 8.40 pb, PDG 10.51, 11.20, MTZ 6, MCD 26, STXN 7.07, 7.84, SCOR, AETH 8.06, 8.53, TSS 19.85 up....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
this list growing, dig ? AYE 33 (S) ?, UTHR fobd, VLCCF, HAL, DPL, TG, WFII, PHI, LNUX, FON 18.5 (B) ?, 19.85, FSII, DPL 22.62, PSEM, KEYN, VRSN, SCS, KFY, FMC 53+, DSS, VVTV, TWAV, AETH, CLTK, CHINA, STXN, UAL (sos), VSH, and most all Techs and rallied stocks, and those listed in sec. (3) last time above, must follow-through up further....above their bases and resistance highs of this week....and/or, above their previously-broken-below-before-sept. 11th-levels....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
FMBI. -7 (sow), IBC -2 1/2, KRI. -1 1/2, ITT -1 1/2, LIZ -1 1/4, TRPS -1, S. -1, ISIL -3/4, MAA -1, RE -1, HRB -1, ABS -1, UB -1, IVV -1, IWV -1, SPH, SLM -1, WMT, BAC, VCI, lower, some further, since last NL here....while, RMD, RCI, ATRX, approached its 200 DMA....and are, ACS, EW, 'fobo's ?
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
Utilities, Entertainment/Leisure, Retail/Apparel, Cable, Brokers, Foreign depr. stocks, Agriculture-oriented, Golds, Telecom, Steel, to, Depressed Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative Energy, Ind. Groups...and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note,
obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many
others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note,
re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this
NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read
sec. (1) above), added these:
ACTU, ANEN, BDAL, BSTE, ELON, DIGL, ITWO, TQNT, DCNT, SCAI, TLCP, STLW, UCFC, TRMB, AWE, AFL ?, GLW, GSK, CCI. ?, XTO opb, LNT, BOY, CNA, DNR, MC, MTP ny, IN, NXY, MVK, PKD ?, MNY, SRE, STN, UFI, RMBS opbo, CMVT opbo, AVNX opbo, JDSU obpbo, ONIS ?, to, LU, WAG ?, CTS, TM, EX, NOI. ?, PRCS, ALL, to, REP, FST, TSS, NGEN, GERN, ARNA ?, MFDE, FSII, HYSQ, CEI, APW, SLR, CALP, ZIXI, TFS, CNH, MCD yes,
as EVB's or bases....
and, some Energy/Alt./Svcs.: PGO opbo, BR, FCEL, RRC, KERX, ACPW, DVN ?, VLCCF, PLUG, WR, CPST, MVK, PKD ?, etc.
some Biotechs and health-relateds: ACLA, AVGN, UTHR, HBIO, BCGI, SGP, SCOR, OSTE, DMN, SSK, SGEN, GSK,
among Telecom-Net-Satellite-Commun.-orienteds: AOL, PACW, T, TIE, WFII, GLW, AWE, TLCP, ELON, LU, AOL, TEO, NNDS, SPOT, VSAT, BLS, MICC, GX, BTY, KEYN,
retail/apparel/shoes: CTHR, CHRS, GPS,
Utils.: SRP, PSD, PEG, SRE,
precious metals: SLGLF, NEM, and, STLD, STLW, RT, steels,
financial-orienteds: SNV, GSB, CCR, PVN, ALL, PFGI, SCOR, FAF, TSS, AFL, MNY, CNA,
and, some more Foreign Telecoms, and more, soon ?
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* added, CNI, JCI, VFC, BSYS, GENZ, GSPT, SYMC, TECD, THQI, XRAY ?, PGR ?, ICPT ?, to, ADRX, AMGN, IDPH, ZRAN, WBSN, PFGC, EC, MMM, LIZ, PCL ?, THC, SFG, RCI, HD, KKD, WMT, MMC, XL ?, S. ?, BLL, HRB, AN ?, KRI, APOL ?, EMIS no ?, FMBI, TRPS, SMTC, ISIL, ICBC, COST, BBY, DL, BAC, IFF, PSA, ACV, IBC no ?, ITT, GCI, FBC, DBD, IMCL ?, FTN, STW ?, SLM, SKYF, DF, SYK, UDR ?, BCS, RWT, TOO, APPB no, MATR, SPH, NHP, MAA, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: added, extended Building/Residential/Commerical-relateds, Semiconductor-relateds, and maybe Chem. soon, to,
Extended: Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Pollution-related, Aero./Def., Funeral, "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes',
Disc. Retail Chains, Insur. brokers/Banks/Mtg./Loans, Construction/Electrical, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, Elec., Security, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES