1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) as I have been intimating since I
was first to give them out from basing lows herein for you, many Regional Bank
stocks still look real good.... 2) and, as a real 'shot', some of those super-depressed Asbestos-hit stocks are being re-added in section (6) below, should be fine from here L.T., interestingly, all had high Insider Buying.... 3) and we got yet two morw takeovers, as FFD merges with CD (which we are also watching, hmmmm) around $ 15. cash, see and learn from its previous easy base, neat, huh....and DK, though we got stopped out early, taken over over $ 8.... 4) not only do Trans. and Util. indexes look toppy again recently, the NYSE's 10-day A/D ovbt./ovsld. index does as well....what does that tell you ?
5) also note, I added more busted previously-big-name Tech. stocks buyable, in section (6) below....I will, as usual, be the first/only to have added some busted Semi. stocks from recent lows, long, yes ? hope you got some.... 6) note, added more Health-relateds as Puttables in section (3) and (7) below.... interesting, as usual, because many non-experts who fled into them only up near highs because they had lost $ being wrong in Techs from tops which they did not predict, are now gonna give more $ back, and fail to buy the now-depressed Techs, dig ? the pattern rarely changes....Also, the DJ. 'defensive' index looks S.T. toppy as well, with the Food/Bev./Tobacco/Def. stocks in it....as I am, again, the first/only person to point out herein for you ....7) our even having some QSL's to go along with a bunch of QLG's in their Puts and Calls over the years, I still do not like the Insurance stocks up here, and most remain potentially bearish, as usual, into 'high RS'....note, even as I.R.'s supposedly fall, which, as explained elsewhere, canNOT be automatically 'linked'....last, as taught you in my "I.G.R." booklet, Banks can rise, as Insur. stocks fall, right ? they are NOT automatically connected, dig ? last, remember, Tops in Financial stocks are often accompanied by 'fakeout breakouts', yes ? so be aware....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) in a rare, potentially helpful item, Fri., CNBC 12:40, B.
Pisani showed I.R. drop T-bond from 2/99 at 6.75 % to now at 5.35 %, and similar
I.R. drop, from early to late 1998, after the Asian crisis low.....interesting,
huh ? ....2) finally, the WSJ, 12/12, publishes a negative article on MSFT's woes - only after its stock fell already from 120 to under 50, yes ? ditto, same issue, onour WCOM, down from 60+ to 15+....and, as CSCO falls even furthery (recall me being among the very few to call its top herein for you), I, again, just laugh...."but, Jim, you just don't understand....Cisco is bulletproof....no fundamental risk....THE company to own....leader of the free world...." yadda, yadda, as usual, the pattern rarely changes....next....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) amazingly, big greedy ignorant guys within TWX, Mon., on CNBC 9:05, actually said, "we're not concerned with recent Movie flops....that is just part of the inherent cyclical nature of the business...." which is interesting, since, if the have been aware of such 'cycles', why didn't they NOT put 'losing films' out in the first place, dig ? .... 2) those who never predicted it, cite recent Calif. Elec. costs as the quivalent of Crude Oil costing $ 350. bbl., gee, no greed there, and great prior planning within that industry, ay ? of further proof of corporate greed, 'Bonneville power' has HAD plenty of 'energy' to send Calif.'s way for months now, and still does - but it cites 'fear of upsetting salmon run' in not doing so - yet....yup, total BS....when the price is high enuf, they will sell Calif. all it needs, dig ? no gouging there, ay ? next.....
3) recent WSJ said, in order to achieve their financial goals in merger, AOL/TWX will have to slash costs, layoff thousands of people, etc., don't getme started....I continue to be against this further-monopoly....what a shame....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) more previously-very-incorrect B-firms continue to lower their opinions on tons of already-fell-a-ton Tech. stocks.... amazing that no one calls them on the carpet, ay ? the Media (most often their puppets) just matter-of-factly reports them....to the detriment of millions of nice people.... 2) re-read my "scenarios/reasons" booklet: now I hear that some Bond bulls are hoping the Fed does NOT lower I.R.'s, supposedly "because we would continue to have the conditions during which the T-bond has been rising"....for the umpteenth time, this is BS....they want rates to fall, so the economy holds up, but also want rates not to fall, so Bonds keep rising ? yet, as I mentioned before, herein, recently most stocks FELL as rates fell, the exact opposite of what the 'experts' have been intimating for decades, yes ? all a waste of brain use, ay ? next....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) not only have the recent Baseball signings/contracts signallyed bad stuff, I just heard an ATT commercial, saying, "After all, aren't the holidays all about getting what you want ?", as damning a non-yogic statement as i have heard, yes ? and part of the reason why I said 2 years ago here, that many 'lucky yuppies' were due to get their come=uppance to an extent --- which, to an extent, has occured....perhaps some day human nature will change, but it certainly has not happened yet.... 2) did you know that our modern word "paradigm" comes from the Greek word for 'pattern' ? hmmmm....actually, kind of a compliment, for us, yes ?
3) more signs of 'deterioration' of the system: Many Calif. schools decided to stop drug testing urinalysis of athletes, acknowledging 'big drug problem existing', but citing 'costs too much', and, 'drug testing ignores alcohol, which is a bigger problem', which is true - but exactly what are they doing about alcohol ? not much, ay ? next.... 4) recent L.A.T. editorial, correctly pointing out that, tons of past Baseball teams with huge payrolls, did not automatically win, and many low payrolls, especially in recent years, HAVE won divisions, etc., proving my 'no links' concept yet again..... 5) saw a funny cartoon, showing Bush saying, "I want an even bigger voctory in 2004, maybe 6 to 3 or 7 to 2 !" hah....oy.... 6) also saw item in parade Mag., citing Saddam hussein building huge new playgrounds, palaces, stadiums, amusement parks, advanced communication systems, 625 new homes for his posse, having huge parties every week, etc., even as his public people face water and food shortages....so what else is new, ay ? Boy, we really hurt him, didn't we ? not.
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
bal. puts DDIC (38+ to 27+) for VVVQ 111% Gain....1/2 pos. calls REY (17 to 19+) for 66% G....all puts XOM (94 to 84+) for Q 50% G....
and/but, longs, CHB ?, 2nd pos. CHINA, CPWR, 2nd pos. LRW ?, PLL ?, AII. ?, OCN ?, CNS ?, LOR, IOM ?, MTZ ?, LGTO ?, KM, AN, and, puts, SEI, UNH ?, EPG ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....I would not be surprised if our QSL's turn out to be fakeout breakouts, but we must conserve portfolio capital here hwre we can....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. AKAM ?, CELL @ 5.06, 1/2 pos. CKR @ 2.06, 1/2 pos. CRA @ 39, 1/3 pos. DITC @ 15+, DL @ 10+, 1/2 pos. FMO @ 1 7/8, 1/3 pos. GTW @ 17 1/4, 1/2 pos. HOMS @ 22+, 1/2 pos. JNIC @ 26+, 1/2 pos. OIL @ 23+, PHSY @ 10+, SIL @ 8 5/8, 1/2 pos. SIMG @ 5 1/8, 1/2 pos. SMTL @ 10-, 1/2 pos. STXN @ 14+, 1/3 pos. TSM @ 18+, 1/2 pos. TTE @ 3.06, 1/2 pos. TWN @ 11++,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ALU @ 3 5/8, AMAT
@ 38+, ANAD @ 16 1/8, BC @ 16++, BGO @ 0.405, CEL eh, CTB @ 9+, EFII. @ 13+, FUN @ 18-, FRT @ 19, GEB @ 1., GSR @ 0.43, GY @ 7 5/8, HA @ 1 7/8, HNV @ 0.28, HRP @ 6+, INCY @ 25+, JCP @ 9, KRY @ 7/8, LEA @ 20+, LGTO ?, LOJN @ 7, LRCX @ 14 1/8, MRBA @ 4.69, MRCH @ 1+, MTZ @ 26- ?, MWL @ 4-, NCI. @ 3-, NXTL @ 28 1/8, ODP @ 6+, ORB @ 5, PKS @ 14+, RAD @ 2 1/2, ROC @ 5.06, STK 9, TRAC @ 1-, WSM @ 16+...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, TNB, AMZN, IFC, KEA, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): BA @ 69++, 1/2 pos. AMRI. ?, 1/2 pos. BMET @ 39, 1/2 pos. CVS @ 58, JNJ @ 100-,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') AVE @ 78+, CBL @ 25, CEFT @ 45++, DUK @ 90-, EPG ?, FPL no ?, FRX @ 140, HBC @ 76, MRK @ 92++, UNH @ 121,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, AFL, WGR, EOG, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit ....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", NT, JS, DIGX, HRP, IFC, RNWK, WCII, NT, NSM, VSEA, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, DJ. Trans. Avg., PPL, HDI, MBI, BA, AGC, CELG, NTIQ, IDPH, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
many more nice further Winners for you: SIMG 6.15 up 1.15, STXN 16 1/8 up 1 7/8, PHSY 13 7/8 up 1 5/8, JNIC 29 5/8 up 3 1/2, OIL 26.43 up 3.18, CRA 43.81 up 4.75, LEA 21.93 up 1.62, HOMS 24 1/8 up 2 5/8, GTW 18.39 up 1.39, AAI. 7.25, BTO 8 5/8, FOX 17.87, 19.31, higher, since last time here....and, SRR, hit their 200 DMA ....and, ADLAC 43, SRR 6.56, even higher still....and the T-bond hit 105 and 6/32, so sell into strength, here, right ?
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
MU 37 1/2, TGX, NXTL 28, PLL, LOJN, FOX 18.37, PHSY 11, AMAT 38.37, 41.81, 39.43, 42.43, MU 34, 35 1/2, LRCX 14, HCM, TSO, ANAD 16, JNIC 27, 29, SUSQ, ELNK 7, WSM 17 1/4, BC, CNS, MRBA, FFIV, HA, TKR, GY 8 1/8, EFII, MWL, ARG 7, ALU 3.56, WCOM 16 3/8, AWA, CEL, DT 31+, 33+, DLM, INCY, 27 3/4, LGTO, SVRN, DLX, ARG 7, GLT, AKS, ABF, N., UAL, KLU, STK 9-, HLIT, FUN.... some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) MRCH, VOD, CNS, NCI. 3-, AM, AII, STEI., CHINA, KDE, ALU, GEB, INCY 25+, AKS, FMT, RAD, OCN, ODP, IOM, LGTO 8.53, CTB 9.18, 9.43, CEL, JCP, CVD, BNP, MTZ, IOM, PLL, VIXL, ZMBA....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
more nice drops for you: BA -3 3/4, FRX -3, BMET -1 1/2, down/further since last NL here....and, QLTI, ANTC 8+, CHCS 18-, CELG 40, NVDA 40-, SANM 70, GR 33, DS 25, APH 44, EMC 65, CSCO, down even further ....and, IMGN, ABT, KRB, PMI, XOM, fell to their 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HRP, FRT, HCN, CWN, DDR, GRT, FUN, RAS, TCC, JDN, ARJ, TCO, FUN, CRO eh, BOY, JPR, NHI, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (AN, UAL, AWA, RWY, LOJN, ABF ?, CTB, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (KLU, BMG, BGO, N, AKS, SIL, GSR, MTZ, etc.)
Farm/Land/Fert., Aero./Def., and most all Housing-related/Furn., Ind. Groups....
and, Commun. (and 'long-distance stocks' ? MWL, CEL eh, PHI, DT, FON, WCOM, etc.), and, Chem. (CCC, ROH, DD, GY), also, Retail (KM, CNS, ODP),
and, of course, some of the 'busted Techs/Semis/Telecoms', as EVB's, just below....
* and some of these are new: Regional Banks/Finls. (AREA, BANR, STSA, SVRN, GBCI, SNBC, UMBF, CEBC, HIB, SKYF, RBNC, OCN ?, IFS, etc.)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not broken, before
you buy, if at all) added, (mostly busted Techs) besides Reg. Banks above,
AKAM, CNXT, CRGN, COST, DCLK, GMST, KANA, KLAC, IDTI, QTRN, RNWK, TMWD, WCII, VRTA, DHC, RCG, SHM, EWG, EWU, CRA, USG, W, OIL, NSM, GTW, CA, BOY, AG ?, CKP, DIR, DL, FMO-OI-CCK, GGC, JPR, NHI, ORB, TFS ?, TWN, WNC, NT, T, to, JNIC, EGLS, FOX, MTP, TSM, BC, HNV nah, LII, TWN, TRAC, CEBC, DITC, CLRN, CTB, IOM, CPWR ?, ELON, HOMS, PMTC, VSEA, SPLS ?, to, STM, UNA ?, EFII, SYMC, ROC, GCR ?, KRY, to, STK, PHSY, BKC, PMD ?, MRBA, TKR, GPC, BMCS, JWN, GT, PKS, ANAD, LDG, LRCX, CELL, FBN, CHB, HRP, IN, COHU, AIR, LZB, DT, CDO, SRR, AEN, CSDS, NCI, LOJN, LEA, JCP, PHC, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead.... and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, NHR,
MLS ?, JDN....close stops again....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, BMET, BA, CVS, JNJ, BAX, TEVA, MANU, the NYSE 'defensive index' (food, tobacco, etc.), the DJ. Trans. Avg., the DJ. Util. Avg., to, AZA, AVE, HMA, FPL, IDPH, NTRS, AMRI, CERN, EXBD, NTRS, APH, CMX, XL, PGR, FRX, GIS, MRK, MTB, CAH, RKH, RDA, CPL, MNY, PPL, SPC, DA, CTIC, DUK, HP, HCA, to,
(repeats) DFXI, ELF, ESRX, COF, MANH, FPC, EPG, IMPH, IMGN, CGP, MRX, BLDP, PLXS, from recent past NL's....again, note still smallish list....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Utilities,
Insur./Mtg., Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?),
Enterprise/software, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell,
Computer/Internet/Software/Services, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs
ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside
follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES