1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) the NDX & SPY broke out/up further, aint gonna fight them....but INDU remains below its 2/04 highs resistance.... 2) and, again, reminding all , that the DXY fell, v.s.t., faster/more, twice B4 in recent years, WITHOUT 'the end of the world', or, 'terrible stocks prices falls', in late year 2000, and in early year 2002, go ck. it out....or remain ignorant like the 95 % who never even think to view past history//patterns....dgms.... 3) re: soybeans....again, I predicted the rise from 4-5 cents to 8-10 herein as U know, and, recent looks 2 me like a top, NOT a 'new rise to 15/bushel, as the normal idiot 95 % expect, i expect a drop back to the 5-6 cent anyway - then another rise i, in 2005, got that ?, you're welcome...
4) the Dec. 30-yr. T-B rose to 115, breaking out/up anew, wow, neat, as the 95 % cont. to be bearish on the bonds, yes ? , and, one more time: how STUPID are 'even huge potentially-powerful foreign countries' for ONLY buying dollar-assets all the way down from their highs - and, only recently, after the DXY fell a bunch, they stop buying our dollar assets ?, get it ?, dgms, only my "PSYCLE sm" sees the real story, as usual....next.... 5) and the TYX yield bd st, to 4.715 %, towards its yield-low of 4.620 % in 3/04, and, TNX tield dn to 4.085 %, so am watching, BUT--- both yields then ROSE, Thu., to 4.830 % and 4.193 %, so we cont. 2 B in that sideways-cone formation in yields, as i have said for months now, continuing to make trading difficult, and we cont. NOT to be v. bullish NOR v. bearish on bonds....yet, recall, just real-recently, the TLT index had a fobd, then rose bunch into 'news that would normally have created a price drop in bonds according to the 95 %'....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians, your Govt., etc.:
1) recent styupid, ignorant Finl. Media headlines about "merger mania' a.o.a. sudden, are, PSYCLE-wise, obviously, ridiculous ramblings, proving my recent comments, that, the only reason/.thing those 95 % knuckele\heads can 'artificially create/sensatuonalize' (re-read my Medai Booklet), iis this one UNimportant item....because, as I have been saying recently, there is really not a lot to exploit here in LFA mkts., dig ?, next.... they should most all be eliminated.... 2) more proof of the value of ignoring at least 95 % of all else out there, in recent 'discrepencies' from govt. reported Crude Oil inventories- they found a -2.2 mm bbl. drop, AND a +2.5 mm bbl. rise, last week....and taxpayers pay for such crap ?, next.... 3) been getting MONEY mag. as I said, mostly, as U might figure, for fading purposes, dig ?, anyway, recent issue big pouff piece recommedning BDK - at 85+ no less....glowing 'fundamentals', dgms, yadda, yadda....gee, where have they been all the way up since its years-ago lows around 16, where only I gave it out, along with other cap-goods/mchy/durable-appliance stks herein recall....the pattern rarely changes....next....
4) viewing recall-I-was-the-only-guy-to-PUT-Pfizer-at-its-high, when the 95 % loved it with 'viagra' (dgms), the recent drop in PFE broke its several-years-back low of $ 23, to 21, i laughed !, just shows how ignorant the anaylysts and people are, and again proves my "PSYCLE sm"...."but, Jim, it's such a big, quality, good co.", yadda, yadda....next.... 5) meanwhile, John (dgms) Maudlin asks, "is England now, the USA's future ?", which I was, compliments to F.V. Hayek, among the 1st few to predict, years ago....i predicted a l.t. rise in LFA's, in 1983+, and, at that time, alikely end-of-ballgame, in the 2005-2010 period....and, yes, that what Maudlin only now just suggested (duh....), may be true, eventually....but so what....learning my patterns shorter-term, stops, and how to ss and do Puts, should protect those doing those things, regardless - provided they have jobs/income, and little debt, ahead....but that didn't stop Maudlin from his Unsolicited come-on e-mail,'shocking predictions for 2005 !" crap, like, "the DJIA will drop min. 3,000 points soon"....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data, and/or stock price moves:
1) as if I had to prove my point for the umpteenth time, note, most recent US bal.-of-trade-Deficit rose in nov. to record -$ 55. B ---- yet most stks prices have been RISING, yes ?, dgms ....NO 'links' ! ....2) the Fed, as expected, raised Fed Funds Rate to highest since 10/01....I still say maybe one more hike next Feb., but that s/b it - unless Greenspan continues 2 B late, Alzheimic and overcompensatory, as has been his wont for years now, to the detriment of our country, but dgms.... 3) TDR, in their ever-bearish grasping at straws, re-quoted Rickebacker as saying, "between 1989 and 1993 (uh, excuse me ?, that's 11 years ago, dgms), total nonfinancial and financial dcredit in the USA rose bt + $ 3.3 trillion....by terrifying contrast, from 2000 to 2004, such N & F credit in the USA rose by + $ 9.0 trillion, and no end or letup in sight"....
3) finally read good treatise regarding how NECESSARY and historically NOT bad 'big deficits' have been and are, for us, in 12/27/04 Forbes, Ken Fisher no less, kudos to him....anyway, the historical BULLISH pattern during 'deficit' times is, in his words, 'unmistakeable"....more proof of MY teachings for decades, as well ....even 'realtive to GDP", and, conversely, logically, of ocurse, budget/rtrade surpluses have ALWAYS led to stks prices Declines, and v.v., take that, doomers ! as per original Keynes writings a bit, ay ?, Fisher goes further saying 9w/o proof, so this I am unsure about, because I teach the opp.. usually), that "huge corp. buybacks, mergers, and earnings yields" here are among the highest, and, by him, the most potentially bullish readings in a while, he says....we shall see.... 4) and, recall a similar Barrons article by Marc Chandler titled, "the good deficit', pretty-much saying the same thing - in August 2000 !, dig ? he mentioned also, a sI have chronicled/taught for decades, 'intra-firm' purchases/ sales by intl. companies, with its foreign subsidiaries, get it ?, accounted for something like - get this - 33 % of the supoposedly-dastardly trade deficit back then....i assume similar still, ay ?, and, with lower DXY, I recently began to say, shouldn't big intl. US companies' earnings start to IMPROVE, the way the idiots say about foreign-firms doing to us as/when the DXY fell ?, dgms...works both ways, folkks....something the 95 % ignorantly forget to know/ mention...'nuff said....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) in an amazingly ignorant-of-what-they-are-really-saying display, TRA recent Nl whoed a new mentioned-by-me-herein-first-recently-if-U-recall divergence bbetween cash Crude Oil price, and the OIH, oil. svc. stk. index, with the OIH falling more than crude, which I still say, is foring a big top (TRA continues bullish on Cryude from its top, but I digress).....anyway, in their always-bearish-on-everything -but-commods-lately ignorance, TRA actually makes MY point, and does not make their normal-bearish-on-the-USA point....I have always loved catching inferior overrated NL's ambiguoisty over the decades herein 4 U 2 learn/from....again, such a divergence is historically bearish for the items, crude, energies, etc., got that ? next....
2) recent EWT NL's continue to warn of DEflation (uh, huh ?), yet we have seen big rises in many commods, actual items, etc., yet, all along....and people cont. to pay them gobs of $ foir such way-oevrrated for decades now' 'advice'.... for sure some EW stuff IS valuable, in a PSYCLE sense, but, gosh....of course, he always operated on the 'eventually/broken-clock approach as well, dgms....re-read MY Booklets....
then - and this is even more damning of their incorrect opinoion/analysis - they announce "enough oil discovered to fund 400 yrs. of demnad" as a NL stock recommendation....uh, excuse me ?, they show aneg. divergence in Energy, AND a higher-supply story - then remain super bullish oon Energy rpices hence !, is your heasd spinning yet ?, and people pay them for such crap ?, well, at least proves all my teachings the last few decades, again.... 3) just rec'd. unsol. email from TobinS/ChangeW, super-bullish economically, for 2005, listed several fundamnetal items, strengthening, etc.
TS/CW did mention, as I did, how that incorrectly-reported 'supposedly too low US savings =rate' is MUCH higher in fact, as I said hereion a while ago....onde more time: the reported BS savings rate does NOT include: s.t. nor l.t. capital gains ! - neither w/in nor o/s pension plans, cashflow/$ raised thru refi's, nor any paper-nor-real RE-value gains in recent years !, ....in fact it does NOT include ANY types of wealth accumulation in the USA ! (dgms), and, last, while the 95 % and Foreigners, cont. in their ignorance and jealousy to bad-mouth all we do and have (while they fail more, right ?), yet they desparately want to be us and need our spending (dgms), remember, in the 1940's and 1950's, many US peopledi d not have MM funds, stock markets, hedge funds, Las Vegas, pension plans, IRA's, dig ?, anywhere near as much available, and, so, back then, our savings rate HAD to be higher, back then, dig ?, and, last, any pension plans $ WERE counted, in the USA savings rate, back then (they are not counted now, get it ?), talk about conspiracy and govt. ignorance, ay ?, ....so, non-uber-bears would ask the 'doomers', "gee, Japan, Italy, etc., have a higher 'savings rate', yes ?, well, then, who proiduces and consumes and has higher actual personal wealth ?, us, or them ?.....give me a break....
5) uh oh, another pot. bearish-for-stocks signal, as recent LAT said that CALPERS raised its equities allocation for the 1st time since late 2002 - late/high after missing tons of longside gains U got herein, yes ?, and, of course, th last time they LOWERED equities allocaton was - U guessed it - right at that late-2002 bottoms....dgms....R U learning the "PSYCLER sm," patterns ?, isn't this kinda EZ at times ?, you're welcome....
e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) one quick lingering item re; the USA's R.E. top & drop occcuring/soon: read recent item that, in DelRay Beach, Fla., "people are paying $ 750 K for condos, not even near the water, in places previously considered 'on the wrong side of the tracks'", supposedly.... if so, marks the beginning of the end/top there as well.... 2) and Thu., we got even more confirmation of the greatness of my "PSYCLE's predictive ability, as they ann. LOWER 'housing starts, -13 % lower than the 'experts' expected (dgms), and lowest since 5/03, and, the HGX hsg. stks. index, up from 195 in 4/03 to 467 recently, is semi-parabolic, I say, gotta be the beginning of the end ahead for them ?, we shall see...
and, Fri., the EWT NL 'houses on steroids', once again warned against RE - except they also even wrote, "of course, we have been saying this for years", meaning, they have been WRONG for one of the biggest multi-year periods in our history in RE, yes ?, next....broken clock anyone ? the diff., of course, is that I predicted an a.t. high Spring 2004 (and only once B4, incorrect, of course), and they have been doing it, incorrectly, for YEARS now....next....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
5 more Longs, neat....
and,
0 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts
carefully, to learn patterns....note, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin" (hypothetically)
1/2 pos. s.o.m. BMRN (3.90 to 6.28) for VQ % G....1/2 pos. s.o.m. L (8+ to 11), bal. s.o.m. ELY (10++ to 12++) ?, all s.o.m. NLY (16 to 20 + div.) for l.t. % G, 1/2 pos. s.o.m. & 19% recons RMBS (16++ to 27+) for % G....1/2 pos. s.o.m. ACCL (6- to 8+) for VQ % G....1/2 pos. s.o.m. SPRT (5. to 7 1/4) for VVQ % G.... bal. s.o.m. MESA (5.2 to 8.1), bal. puts GOOG @ 170-,
and/but, longs, bal. RPMM bd ?, fo ?, and, puts, DJTA, bal. DJIA ?, BPFH bo ?, for quick, mostly very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....are you learning the pattern ? if not, why not ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/3 JDSU ny ?, 1/3 CHINA @ 4.. db ?, 1/3 SPRT @ 5.1, the US dollar DXY @ 81 w/close stop, but COMS no !, 1/4 CLTK again @ 0.80-, 1/4 BLLD @ 1.50 wcs,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): IRSN again @ 1.80-, ISIL @ 15.2, STTS fobd, SEHO @ 0.14 fobd, RPMM bd ?....
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
*** Important: took, COMS, TMEG bd ?, TSIC, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
added, DJIA @ 10,700+ ?, OEX @ 573+ ?, SINA @ 39, GLD fobo @ 450+, DJTA @ 3770- ? (fo)bo ?, 1/4 GOOG @ 199-, BPFH bo, no ?, EVG @ 41+,
"Repeats":
copper again around 1.47+, ACAT @ 27 again, BKMU @ 12+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, herein)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", XOMA rats, CRAY, SGI. neat, SKIL ?, BLDP ?, KKD, SVSE, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, , as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7).... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to
learn the patterns yet again:
several nice pops among given-from-lows techs:
BEAS 9.86 up 1.31 nice, ACCL 8.16 up 1.51 nice (S), SPRT 7.32 up 1.54 nice (S), RMBS 27.85 up 1 (S), BLLD 1.49 (B), 1.63, BMRN 6.30 sos, L. 11.21 up 0.38 sos, ISIL 16.38 up 1.28 bopb, CHINA 4.25, DXY 82.90, new CLTK 0.94 up 0.15 nice, MESA 7.43 pb, 8.23 (S), CNN 6.38 up 0.23 sos, NLY 20.22 sos !, ESST 7.79 stbo, up/further since last NL here....and ACTI. 9.35 another recovery high, sos....and TTN 17- sos....
and, these are either pulling back, or bouncing, after expected pb's already occuring/occured:
PLNR 12.00 up, ctbo, but 11.34, msa, AGR.B 1.28 pb, LSCC 5.28 pb, 5.64, 5.06, STTS 5.82, 6.19, 5.86, bopbo, DXY 82.14 pb, ISSI. 7.70, 8.20, 7.85, bopbo, SEBL 9.82, 10.48 vstbo, bmsf, ESST 7.13 pb, msa, cbobpbo, DXY 81.38 pb, 82.55, 81.42, ....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or
else, yes ?)
PLNR 1msf, SEBL 10.53, 10.06, sos, SEHO msa, WM 41.54 up ctbo ?, PSY 21.84 dn, oy, sos, ESST bopbo, BCGI. sos, ELY 12.86 up, stbo, sos, BEAS soso, PMCS 11.46, msa, 10.81, 11.31, L. 10.53 dn, fobo ?, CNN 6.20 pb, sos, RPMM ?, DSS....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
SINA -2, down/lower since last time here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must
weaken anew:
DJTA 3770, 3716, ctbo, non, OEX 575, 567, EVG, UCBH (fo)bo ?, BKMU fobo, BPFH -1, +1, fobo, Copper, posas, Crude, ACAT non, -1, DJUA +5 (329), GLD 4432 up, are and/or up/dn, bouncing, when they should be falling more....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
*** in
lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depessed....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from
here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
but, now, 10/5, many are already up, so only buying them near lows - but you knew that....
obviously, many have already bounced, so oopbo for most, yes ?
added, CGFW opbo, JDSU, SINX fobd ?, AAI. obpbo, TXEO another super spec., BLLD ?, BLDP db ?, to, PMCS opb, ISIL opbo, PCLE tln, CY obpbo, CMOS tln, CHINA, ESST mtln, ESPD obpbo, STTS, SKIL ?, SWY fobd ?, SNPS obpbo, OATS evb, SGI. obpbo, PKS ltp ?, SUNW tln, to, SEHO ?, MCDT opbo, DCLK tln, CPWR ny, RPMM ? fobd ?, TSM tln, NYB ?, SONSE, SYNO ?, LSCC opb, ISIS ovbpbo, NITE obpbo, SANM obpbo, TQNT opbo, XOMA tln, CLTK, ADCT ovbpbo....
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
added, DCS ?, ZF obpbo, EVC obpbo, to, CNN obpbo,
and, watching 2 cdn. o & g. royalty trusts, C.AY.U, and C.NAE.U, (APF energy trust, & NAL o & g trust), but both are already around 11+ and 13++ now, so too high ?, yielding 15 % each here anyway ?, eh, tln ?,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view
each of these, B4 acting on any !, recent drops to s.t. support means only 'put' these after rallies towards highs, right ?, so removed a bunch, with recent drops....and may remove more, so chk. charts B4 considering:
note, finally removed some stks which had, obviously, already worked big-time, or broken out, belatedly....
added, SINA ?, GLD fobo ?, to, the DJUA (see above), GLD ?, to, s.t.o., GOOG oso, GCD ?, ACAT, EVG, BKMU bo ?....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: (for I.G.'s, please see sec. (2) above, from now on, , all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs.... this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES