1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) note, with pops in our MWHS, CPU, might ODP, OMX, be next ? we were, again,the first/only to have given these out near lows.... 2) note some pops from EVB's in some REIT's and "Comp. Memory" stocks, as I was the first/only to have given out herein recently.... 3) also, see, RAD rose to over $ 13....all the 'experts' who hated it at recent lows, said they were going out of business, ay ? ....4) note, added some depressed Aero./Def. longs, and some extended Retails, Oil Service, Semis, as puttables, below....and some "Media/Publishing" stocks may also be topping....if so, I will, again, be the first/only to foresee all this....more I.G.R., right ? An ancillary note: see how we have, both, Longside, and Putside, ideas, in the Retail group....sometimes happens, often to our advantage....re-read my "I.G. Rotation" booklet....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) a rare excellent (and probably correct) chart/story from CNBC, showed a 10-year-past chart of "tech-stocks vs. other stocks" valuations, Scott Cohen, Fri., 9:05 am, showed that the current 'relative values' for Techs, exactly where it was, parabolic, just before the HUGE drops in Techs, in the 1983-84 period....as I suggested back then (I had a daily TV stocks market station show back then, long story), a shakeout ensued, as I see ahead, in the Internets/Techs ....He specifically said, that NO one he spoke with is saying anything even remotely of a protective/careful nature.... every single person, analyst, etc. is super-super-bullish on these....Remember, while WE may have some Q, S, losses in parabolics (which cannot continue, mind you), the pattern never changes, and very, very few analysts or money mgrs. look at price charts....shocking, isn't it ? but, they are riding the wave, through luck or skill, and many WILL get whacked next year or two....Of course, the vast majority of traders and managers were not even around in the early 1980's, dig ? and they will, by "PSYCLE sm" nature, NOT take even one moment to check chart history to see what transpired that period, will they ? well, I was there, and, the Chips, Semis, Computer, Software stocks got creamed....it took 12-18 months to fulfill....don't get me started....
2) similarly, have you noticed the new nightly story on CNBC, titled, "the new economy: BOOM without end" ? what does THAT ell you ?, "PSYCLE-wise" ? ....3) those 'no qualifications/how were they chosen ?' guys in the L.A. Times, 12/14, Peltz and Hitlik, now love "BFT" stock up here around $ 30....Remember, all the analysts said they would go completely under, a few years ago, at 1/10 their current price, check it out....they said, "the stock has a built-in nice gain ahead of it next year....even with its inconsistencies, even if there is a recession, the stock is cheap here...." Gee, guys, if it is somehow 'cheap' here, what word would you have used when it was $ 3. ? FYI, IMHO, the Bally locations in the real nice area where I live, are not too nice, and do not seem to be doing that well....meaningful ? ....4) same L.A. Times, "Drug stocks weaken anew on reform fears", showed chart (only back to April '98, lack of proper perspective shown, please re-read my "Media" booklet), which is weird, because, since the mass-disseminated assumed-negative stories of recent years, of your Govt. continuing to press for laws that would hurt their profitability, most major Drug stocks have RISEN a ton....but, of course, they did not show, nor mention that.... 5) 12/16, CNBC's Bob Pisani, highlighted (or should I say, lowlighted) the "Food stocks index" making a new 2-year low here, and, "Consumer stocks (PG, GIS, CL, KO, CLX) negatively", saying, "no hope, no turnaround at all in these, or 'money center or regional Bank stocks...." Hmmmm, late again, as usual....as you know, I gave you the Foods and Banks and plenty of Drug stocks, previously, for rises/gains, then the Consumer/Banks as correct Puts for the drops that followed, herein, for you....and, recently, been watching Foods and Banks, as you know, for buys again ? eh....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) front-page L.A. Times, 12/14, huge bearish article on "AN" stock, showing 3-year chart, titled, "stuck in reverse", down from $ 40. (where all the 'experts' loved it), to below $ 8. now....as usual, right ? company is closing locations, layoffs, losses, etc....no bottom yet, technically, but note, again, how the article only comes out AFTER the big drop....the pattern never changes.... 2) I see NSOL parabolic....remember, several months ago, when "the experts" were bearish on it, after its' drop, of course, "because competition for web name/domains would hamper their business" ? also, see, as predicted here, "T" fell from 60 to 54 already, after "super-recommended" on CNBC, bullishly, reemember ? ....3) front-page L.A. Times, showing a chart with E-Toys stocks down from $ 80+ to 40. recently, titled, "trouble in toyland", said, "the once- high-flying stock has plunged in recent weeks despite rapid growth ...." so ? maybe 'fundamnetals' and 'stock price moves are NOT 'linkable', ay ? As I said, they should give me more respect....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, Money Managers:1) while I was the first/only to have correctly predicted a pullback in Warren Buffett's performance (on TV, mind you), when I gave out stocks like, his KO, G., U., and BRK.B, as Puts/shorts near their highs, herein, I must give him one kudo, on "BI." stock, which, if you see, formed an EVB recently (I never even knew it existed, or I would have added it as an "aero/def." stock near its lows, as you know), and he evidently bought a bunch.... 2) Pimco's Bill Gross was on CNBC, Fri., noon, and is bearish on T-bonds, to a 6.6 % or 6.7 % target ? He also called for "sanity and reasonableness" in Techs and Internet stocks.... 3) L.A. Times, Bloomberg, etc., wasting space, reporting Goldman Sachs' Abbey Cohen, foreseeing 'only' an 8 % rise in the year 2000, again, for the S & P.....Then they mentioned how, in each of the last three years, her predictions of similar 'smallish' growth in the S & P, were dwarfed by much higher actual returns each year, dig ? So, if she has not been very good, why mention her so often, when so many much-better prognosticators exist ? She better enjoy her fame, because it will not last, as she entered stage 4 in 1999, as I reported earlier, here.... 4) in Bottom Line Personal, Dec. issue, perma-bear Michael Metz, who has also been too early bullish on Gold stocks, "gold glitters again....as he has now been vindicated as European central bankers have agreed to limit gold sales".... Interesting, since other countries have increased their gold sales, yes ? and cash gold has certainly NOT been 'glittering', in reality, has it....But, once again, we see a 'long-ago famous, well-connected' guy, over-reported, well after he loses his touch, while others who are much-better, languish in undeserved obscurity....oh, he also specifically said NOT to buy "coins", which, interestingly, have doen VERY well over the years, vs. cash gold, yes ? my goodness....
e) more general items proving why one must ignore 95 %
of everything else out there: 1) again, with abosolutely NO inferences or comments on any religious beliefs, you DO realize, that the 'year 2000' is itself somewhat in question, since, as you know, recent studies have found that the measurement of 'the year one' itself, in Christianity, may be off, by 3-6-years....and, of course, for Muslims, it is the year 1450 or so, and for some Hebrews year 5760, and many Asians, well over 'year 5000-plus', as well....
I guess perspctive differs here, as well....
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
puts APNT (57 to 42) for VQ 111% Gain....bal. stk.on.mgn. TOC (8-- to 12-) for 100% G....bal. puts FON (74 to 64+) for Q 85% G....bal. puts NTPA (54 to 44+) for Q 75% G....bal. puts CRDS (85+ to 68+) for VQ 111% G....css 1/2 pos. TUES (25+ to 18+) for VVQ 55% G....
and/but, longs, AIR (16 to 20 to 16), WXS, BDX, NA, BDY ?, AZC ?, FIX ?, CHB ?, CR, AIN ?, NVX ?, and, puts, ARMHY, TMPW, AFFX, AMAT, VTSS ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....most all are "Semis/Compu." stocks....but still been too many of them lately....rare (but not lately)....I also wish I could be more clear about these '?' questionable sales lately....it just happens that way at times....again, "cutting for real small losses" when necessary, which never hurts much....in fact, they can actually help your 'psyche' over time, by keeping larger losses away, yes ? remember, more than a few of these "?" sales, are likely to revalidate, driving us crazy, regardless....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
1/2 pos. DIR @ 15+, 1/2 pos. MCK @ 20+, 1/2 pos. RDRT @ 4 1/8, 1/2 pos. SFI. @ 17+,
"Repeats": AAS @ 12 1/8, ABF @ 21++, ABX @ 17+, ACL @ 16+, AIN @ 14 1/8, BBC @ 7++, BEV @ 3++, BKS @ 21, CHB @ 8- ?, CPU @ 5++, CRRS @ 1 3/4, DCN @ 26++, DDS @ 18, FLS @ 15++, GLB @ 12 1/8, GPT @ 24-, GV @ 5/16, FIX @ 6++ ?, FLS @ 16-, HM @ 7 9/16, HOT @ 20, HRC @ 5, HSY @ 48, HUM @ 7.06, HWS @ 2.06, HZP @ 3-, IMG @ 6-, JBM @ 2 9/16, JCP @ 18+, KRC @ 19-, LAF @ 26, LB @ 1 1/8, LDW @ 6+, LWN @ 7/16, LYO @ 11+, MAH @ 9++, MAT @ ?, MHX @ 15-, MSN @ 9/16, MUEI. @ 10-, NHI. @ 15+, NHR @ 8.06, NSC @ 21+, ODP @ 10, PDG @ 10+, PMC @ 8, RPD ?, SCY @ 4-, SDH @ 14- ?, SKS @ 15+, SQM @ 28+, STE @ 12-, TEN @ 7+, TGI. @ 23+, TPS @ 0.93, TRL @ 6++, TVX @ 13/16, VCR @ 1 11/16, VVUS @ 1.93, WAB @ 17--, WCC @ 6++, WLV @ 13+ ...."buy (only) low", right ?
nice, long lists for you lately, yes ? as usual, you have had several
opportunities to have bought many of these, as they have often pulled back to buy
levels, a few times, over time....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, CNS, WEL, IHK, HEC, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
HOW DIFFICULT CAN IT BE to take just 5-10 minutes to VIEW the CHARTS OF
"new longs/puts" here ?
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) MERQ @ 98, OCLI. @ 228, OMKT @ 47+, PR @ 25+, TSM @ 38,
"Repeats": ASDV @ 56 ?, ASTX @ 29+, AVX @ 44-, CMC @ 33+, CXY @ 20+, IMN @ 34, JDSU @ 255+, KMG @ 69 ?, LGTO @ 76+, OMPT @ 86+, PIOS @ 14++, QLGC @ 138-, TGNT @ 64+, VSTR @ 101+, VTSS @ 51 ?, "the S & P index" over 142....
and/but, took, VRTS, LRCX, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off,
here)....this cleans up the list in section (7) for you....remember, any new
highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns
look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", OMX, CEI, ARI, DMI, FCH, AKS, MLM, HPC, DFS, SIF, DOR, HSI, UAM, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, VYTL, NTAP, NXTL, MTIC, ADPT, CNXT, HON, RFMD, JBL, UK, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit "missing" some, which DO work anyway, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
SHO 6 7/8 up 1 5/8, IMG 8 1/4 up 2 1/4, CRRS 2 1/8 up 1/2, RDRT 5 up 1, WCC 7 3/4 up 1 1/4, UNA 14 1/4 up 1 3/8, PRD 19 3/8 up 2 1/8, WDC 4 3/8 up 7/8, KRC 21 5/8 up 2 1/2, PDG 11 1/4 up 1 1/4, WAB 18 3/8 up 1 7/8, DDS 19 5/8 up 1 5/8, TEN 8 1/2 up 1/2, MCK 21 1/8 up 1, DCN 27 7/8 up 1 3/8, LAF 27 1/8, VBAC 2 1/2, BLC 19 3/4, ODP 11, BS 8 1/8, higher, since last time here....also, see, CN 2 3/8, PB 23+, higher still....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: (note, this list is growing) MUEI. 12 1/8 up 2 1/4, HM 8 1/8 up 5/8, MAH 10 3/8 up 7/8, LYO 12, 12 7/8, 11 5/8, MHX 16 up 1 3/8, ARJ 17 3/4 up 1 1/8, NSC up , PCLN 56+, ABX 18 3/8, ABF 21 3/4, RPD 2 5/8, ODP 10 1/8, IMG 7 3/8, TPS, SHO, ZMAX, LPX, TOY, BBC, PWN 8 3/4, 7 3/4, CPU 5 3/4, PRD 18 1/4, MAH 9 3/4, WCC 7, BAMM, CRRS, BKS, FOE, PIR, IRSN, DAL 49 3/8 up 1 3/8, MAT, DDS 18 7/8, BD, HSY 48, HRC, GHV, HOT, SKS, SYNX, ALU, CTHR, JBOH, HUM, SAMC, PDQ, RPD, GLB, BGP, NHR, ALB, TOK, WLV, UVA, UNA, SDH, USL, CHB, AIN, TSN, FIX, CPU, NSC, HOT, CSGI., VXTK, PMC, LDW, HOC, TPS, MSN....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) HSY, LDW, HOC, NSC, FIX, BEV, ALB, JCP, NHR, SDH, MAH, IM, RPD, PWN, OCN, WAB, GLB, JBM, NVX, NHP, WLV, CHB, UVA, MSN, HUM, TRL, 'golds' ....again, longside not too sexy....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
some nice drops for you: OCLI. -9, RSYS -8, RSC -5 1/2, ISSX -4, MERQ -3, NEON -3, TUES -1, NTPA -1 (S), ASTX -1, CPWM, ASPT, MGM, PTEL, lower since last NL.... and, RSC (sow), KIDE 35 lower, approach their 200 DMA....VRTY, fell right to its 200 DMA....and, BMY 62, HB, lower still....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (VVUS, NHP, IMG, HRC, AAS, HUM, GHV)
Prec. Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, HM, ABX, PDG, longer-term, on pullbacks only)
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
emerging groups ?: "Cap. Goods Mfrs.", "Athletics/Apparel", "Housing-related", Gaming, Foods, Waste, and, "Funeral" stocks down the road ?
and, maybe, some depressed Y2K's, still: in no particular order, near lows only, with close stops only, these are more risky: (IAIC, TSIM, SAA, MVSI, ZMAX, CSGI, ENCC, VXTR, PHXU), some others up big, already....
and, these REIT's, most also with real big potential Dividends ?
(NHR, AMB, GLB, NHI., NNN, DDR, FCH, LTC, PDQ, CEI., GTA, ARI., JDN, KRC, ESA,
etc.)
"Transportaion" (DAL, TEN, ABF, MSX, R.)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, add, DPH, IM, WH, CRRS, SFI., RDRT, LAF, TXM, to, EC, BDX, NHR, STS, NVX, DROOY, WDC, AAS, TVX, FOE, LWN, BYS, CPU, AIN, MHX, LMM, MAT, SKS, JOB, PIR,
BWL/A, TRL, RDL, PMC, SYNX, HIV, MSN, CCC, SAMC, XCL, OCN, WAB, to,
also, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh....add, WSO, DLX, F., BSX, DIR, SRV, WYN, URI, NCI, AVS, FE, UAM, RT, GAP, FLE, Z., ATC, AMI, ALR, MHR, to, PCLN, NCS, LTV, DFS, S., LYO, BDE, DOR, DAY, HLT, AW, GSR, BGO, ACL, TOY, WCC, CTX, SFI., KRC, ESA, MIR, VFC, MO, FHS, JBM, GLG, MAH, AKS, ADM, IM, GPT, AIR, BTR, BUR, DCN, JWN, TSP, WMI., JPR, HWS, TPN, MPO, MKC, NHR, TO, CMX, TRL, SQM, BEV, MZ, TVX, MUEI, AIN, (and, maybe soon also, HRP, HCN, KPA, HPT), as potential REIT "EVB's", and may base/bottom ahead....and, now, more "Aero./Def." stocks, like, maybe, LIT, LMT, LOR, RTN, MLM, soon ? I will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
note, two valued subscribers, thank you, S.V. and, J.C., for bringing some good stocks/formations to my attention for this NL....I am pleased to see more subscribers learning the patterns....
note, more Retails on "watch list", like, SKS, DDS, KM, JCP, PIR, S., DFS, Z.,
CNS, may need more work, technically, but likely to bottom ahead....this list is
growing as well....
The last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
I also see more 'Insider' Buys after drops, in issues like, ODP, CNC, HUM,
OH, FLE, FCH, CVD, BUR, BBA, BEV, TXU, HMK, FIX, HRC, CRS, DAR, MMD, USL, CFS, EAR, CMH, DOR, FAF, PMC, OPI., NHI., AFG, BBA, CCB, CNA, ENN, TSK, MAG, and many others of that ilk, lately....decent late-year action....interesting, how, as I taught you, even with significant Insider Buying, some patterns broke down....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, AFM, AUD, CY, GTE, MHP, NWS, STM, NE, UK, WSM, TBL, TIF, TSM, JBL, BRCM, EMLX, CUBE, MERQ, OMKT, NTAP, RNWK, RFMD, SDLI, SCMR, NYF, OCLI, RATL, HNCS, to, AVX, CHL, SEG, HWP, MGM, ASDV, BSYS, CSGS, COSI., ASPT, CPWM, ISSX, HGSI., OMPT, PRSF, NVDA, PLCM, TSCC, VYTL, BBSW, AFCI., APNT, CELG, CMVT, QLGC, VTSS, PTEL, NLCS, TUES, NT, PR, JDSU, TLB, RSYS, VSTR, BWAY, CYBS, VYTL, RDC, MGG, PHTN, TFSM, XLNX, ALLR, JPM, PIOS, AEIS, ILN, KMG, AMCC, CMC, MSTR, BRCD, QCOM, CTS, BJ, IPI, CLRN, WLM, AMAT, from recent past NL's,
'extra' list: were/are these stage 4 tops right here ?! are they done
rising ? ! : MLNM, MRVC, MVSN, MACR, ESFT, INFY, ITWO, INSP, INTU, MGIC, NEON, NXTL, OMKT, PUMA, SDLI, SCMR, MTIC, BRYO, SEBL, BBSW, ADBE, ADIC, AKAM, ZOLL, SILK, ASKJ, CMRC, DTPI, NXTV, MIHL, CADA, GMST, SAPE, SILK, RFMD, etc., ? note, this list is growing, dig ?
**** new **** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: adding some Banks !, to, Electronics- specialty
instruments, Wines/Liquors/beverages, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech,
Computer/Internet/Software/Services, Semiconductor-related,
Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media, Energy, and most all
Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their
patterns highs....
NEW: given all the above, no special 'lesson' today....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....