1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
Continuing our relatively below-avg. performance lately, and I have no logical/historical explanation, except that millions of people are likely getting suckered into the 'parabolics' up here, and out of the 'depressed' stocks, down here, seasonally, and sentiment-peer-pressure-wise, recently....It is as if the 'brand-new(er) companies' will be the ONLY companies left in business, any business, period -- and as if the 'older, more-established companies' will NEVER grow further/again, or survive at all, isn't it ? But we both know, this/that situation is impossible to continue, on such a large scale and rate as recently assumed by the new fortunate winners....and that's all I can say about what has transpired lately.... my own options account is still about 75 % in cash, as I scurry to find more long and put ideas here....I gave back most of what I recently made, which is real;ly rare for me, which should tell you how difficult things/patterns have been....

The NASDAQ index is now up + 50 % just since Oct. 10th....and that has NEVER happened before....especially after already having been up parabolically....up + 80 % in 1999, it is THE largest calendar-year % gain, in any stock index, since the year 1915....wow....So, let me be the first/only guy around, to suggest a little (gasp) "scenario" for you ? I recently said that the parabolic Asian, and, hence, Semi., stocks, are crusin' for a bruisin', and it will come from out of the blue, and not far off, either (even though there are many vastly overpaid analysts who are actually supposedly watching this, and, will, of course, miss it when it occurs), and will probably be precipitated/explained (after the fact, of course, as usual, by the 'experts' and 'the Media', right ? re-read my "Scenarios' booklet, section on "Reasons") by the eventual mass recognition that "the Asian recovery" (which they failed to catch anyway, from summer of 1998, but I gave those stocks to you Long, right at their lows, on TV) is NOT taking as strong a hold as "the experts" have been suggesting, lately, dig ? hence, I see a little recession coming in Asia, just ahead....and, as you know, a slight recession, coming, in many areas of the USA....

I know, we have had too many Q, S, puts losses lately, but, remember, all signs still point to many impending late stage 3 tops, based on physics alone.... and NO one else out there is warning anyone, about much of anything, here, yes ? Plus, and I hate saying this, 'interest rates' have been rising, as predicted, and, perhaps, that will be enough to trip some of the levers, at some point close ahead ? Gosh, I hate scenarioizing like this....but, as you know, since last week, I have been at the end of my rope, Put-wise, and I think, if I am correct on this, many extended stocks will correct, probably all the way back down towards their October lows, anyway....or, at least, retracing many of their 'last stage rises' from those levels....in most cases, that is their still-rising, 200 DMA's support....and, when/if so, that will also likely slow down the So. Calif. and Silicon Valley R.E. rises, at least temporarily, dig ? (maybe in your area, as well ?) So, what do you think ? yeah, I know, I am "linking" stuff here....we shall see....Of course, today, it seems as if nothing will ever fall, even a little, again....and I am as close to chucking it all as I have ever been in my career....so, we gotta be close to a correction in extendeds, just by sentimnent....got me....

Concurrently, because so many year-end cracks/breakdowns may appear this season, among Depressed stocks, we are going to recommend staying long in some of those, even when/if they breakdown a bit (re-read all my NL's from last December), because I still think many are going to end up rising, and/or catching-up a bit, due to tax-selling pressure abating, provided one can 'stand the heat' in the S.T. meantime....issues, like, but not limited to, CHB, GPT, TGI., AZC, AIN, BDY, ADM, and, maybe, ABF, FIX, etc., as well ? of course, none of these types of stocks have any 'sexiness', anyway....but they can make decent % gains when rise.... oy....And, ditto, on the Put-side, with minor upside breakouts, as potential 'fakeout breakouts'?

So, all this, even when/if occured, would not prevent many now-depressed stocks from having tax-selling-ending pops....at the same time, as has happened many times before....independently of any drops in the parabolics....sort of, a reversal of recent months' action....got our close stops in, regardless....do note how many actual 'bases' there are in section (3) below....I also think a portion of the money that DOES come out of extended stocks which are sold, will look for still-depressed stocks in OTHER industry groups, here, like some of the groups I like, dig ?

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more, as befits market conditions....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7).... and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage, over time.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:1) hey, NOTE, I gave you STILL more "Y2K" winners, as TSIM, IAIC, VXTK, which also rose nicely recently....add those to, WALK, IFMX, MAST, ZMAX, INFM, ASI., CBSI, KEA, CSGI, all of which you had plenty of opportunities to have bought at least ONE of, from the section (6) list I gave you, first, in late October, here....another perfect "PSYCLE sm" example, technical-chart-pattern-wise, and, sentiment-fundamentals-wise, yes ? ....2) as expected, the DJ. Util. has formed a weak EVB, as 'the 95 %" and 'experts' all hate interest-sensitive stocks here, yes ? ....3) allied, the T-bond may have formed a double-bottom here, and also some depressed Insur. stocks (like, ACL, WCC).... 4) speaking of depressed Retail stocks, note pops (not predicted here) in TAN< CVS, but, more, look at the base on SKS, and smaller base in DDS, up already....neat, huh....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC negatively reported, big-time, on our "SDH", Mon., 11 am, with 'bad fundamentals looking forward'....in a rare move, it cracked potential double-bottom.... 2) CNBC's Joe Kernan, Wed. 8 am, actually said, about the Techs, "we are beginning to see some volatility here...." uh, Excuse me ? "beginning" ? where has he been the last few months ? and, that's all he can report ? a waste of time, and of no value, ay ? next.... 3) I love it....CNBC-ers were finally slamming "EK" all day, Tues., then it pops 3+ points, Wed.

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) Tues. 10:15 am, CNBC had pres. of "NDB" on, a real fast-talker, who announced their sales were up 51 % vs. last year's quarter, and their "eps" were up a lot, above Wall St. expectations, yet their 'actual net income was DOWN 4 %'....hmmmm....then, he said some weird stuff about acounting shenagigans (my term, re-read my "Media" booklet), and, when pressed about gaining 'market share' at he expense of earnings, he kept saying "we are perfectly leveraged to be everything to everbody....we've got this whole thing down cold....without advertising and other expenses, our income was up", in a defensive manner....that last comment he made is amazing, huh....and maybe is not a good sign for e-broker stocks ? ....2) a wing-tip analyst, from Turner Mid-Cap Fund, on CNBC, Thu. 9:25 am, now likes our "RNWK", and "RBAK", showing chart up + 1,500 % and + 500 % already, all excited about their fundamental prospects, VERY late, as usual.... then, Bill Griffeth also actually said, "if you liked DCLK at higher prices, you'll love it at its current lower prices"....Huh ? it is up from $ 7. to over $ 200....what "lower prices" ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, Money Managers:1) the second most over-covered analyst, Prudential's R. Acampora, Tues., said his year-2000 target for Dow is 14,000 and for NASDAQ index is 4,800 to 5,000.... 2) and, perma-bull (but correct lately) Henry Blodgett now recommends CMGI., way up here (when he could have had it at 1/12 of current price, not too long ago)....I just don't get it....can't analysts find ANY still-depressed stocks here of much better reward-risk ratio from here ? I guess not.... 3) I initially got excited when CNBC's 'grabber' was they were going to interview a "bearish on Tech. stocks" guy, Wed., 7:45 am, until I saw it was the mgr. of the Prudential Utility Fund....well, duh....of course, a Utility-stock-only stock guy is going to always be bearish on the Tech. stocks, get it ? And, where are his credentials, track record, and prediction record on Tech stocks, historically, in areas of I.G. Roation, anyway ? Has he predicted many tops and drops in Techs before ? but never mentioned, dig ? But I do applaud Pru. for good marketing timing....I wonder how much they paid CNBC for THAT spot, on this day, dig ? that said, you know I see a S.T. bottom forming in Elec. Utilities here, anyway....last, he also did NOT recommend ANY specific Utility stocks in his segment....then why have him on, in the first place ? ....4) kudos to Charles Lemonides, a money mgr. whose firm I could not catch, nor his location, who was on CNBC, 7:45 am, Thu., and recommended only big-name issues near their lows, which is refreshing to see/hear....none of his ideas had bases at all, but, I like the way he thinks, which is rare, and wish I knew more of his record....

e) more general items proving why one should ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) L.A. Times, 12/20, "Flight trackers likely to see empty skies on new year's eve", airlines say that demand for tickets is so low, the three days around year-end, AMR has almost NO flights scheduled, ditto Virgin, National, and, UAL only 28 % of flights have people, etc. Of interest, industry officials say this has nothing to do with Y2K concerns....yeah, right....and, 68 % of travelers polled, said they would stay home those days, even if no Y2K situations existed....hmmmm.....Last, travel agents report that many passengers are requesting old-fashioned paper tickets, rather that leaving it up to electronic (which I personally have never trusted, but I digress) ticketing, during this period....Of course, with everyone concetrating only on Jan. 1st, what of the few days beyond that day ?

As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means it was held even shorter-term than that....

Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....