1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, and still remaining long in most of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other,
still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) Notes: 1)
note the pops in some of our Oil Service, depressed Health, and Y2K stocks....did
you get in ? I am certainly the first/only, to have formally given the depr. Y2K's again, recently, for you.... 2) see ? Mon./Tue, again, "big stocks" were up, yet "the T/bonds" were down, still unable to surmount suggested resistance, as
predicted ....3) of course, I am wrong on some of our Bank puts, for VQ, VS
losses....4) I was, obviously, wrong on NSOL, 173, 136, "sentiment vs. PSYCLE sm"
stage....quite rare, but, the Internets have been quite rare lately....at least
we did Not recommend many of their puts earlier.... 5) Note how many extended
Banks, Insur., Health-Drug, Comp./Techs, are being touted by the Analysts/Media,
yet seem to still have "tops/double-tops/resistance" here, and are on MY
puttables list....6) and, yes, the Internets in Sec. (7) below, DO have V.S.T. 'hook" tops, with stops above, again....
b) 1) you should recall when I mentioned "DAYR" here, around 22+, June, as a
"PSYCLE sm" Put/Short, because it had been too bullishly recommended in local
newspapers, yet its stock CHART showed a top, heading lower, despite so many
analysts loving it ? Well, check it out now....Monday, the 1st "bad news" came
out, at 18. (stage 6 S.T., right ?), with the co. warning of lower eps....and,
Tue., fell to 14., as it should have....stage 7 ? ....2) I also gave you RFMD as
a pot. Put recently here, which was super recommended also by Piper Jaffrey,
stage 4--- so I added the puts.... 3) also note, the same farm/.Chem. stocks I
specifically gave you near their previous bottoms, herein, HPC, AG, CSE, DE, NH,
TEN, etc., may try establishing a double-bottom soon ? We'll keep an eye on
them....remember, all the analysts hated them last time, as well, yes ? Then
they each rose 25-33-50 %.....Yet, they are not making new lows, yet, into
bad/worse fundamentals, dig ? ....4) through Thu., today, the "T-Bond" and "T-Bill" contracts prices, had fallen, 9 of the last 10 trading days, as predicted....while "the 95 %" have been predicting lower I.R.'s forever....I told you, when the ads ran touting "a guranteed fall to 4 %", that that might be the top for T-bonds, for a while, "PSYCLE-sentiment-wise".
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/
companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary stock prices moves, etc.: 1)
Business Week (BW) 12/28: as usual, the $ mgrs. they had chosen to recommend 10
stocks each (based, of course, on their 1997 good performance) in their mag for
this past year, UNDER-performed in 1998, big-time....one made +3.8 %, one lost
-9.3 %, one lost -23.5 %, and one lost -45.2 %....of the 40 stocks the next pack
of $ mgrs. BW has chosen to follow in 1999 (again, based on their good
performance in 1998), only RON, fit my "PSYCLE sm" stage 1, list, here, and,
several (DELL, CCRD, PMCS, MDT, ODP, TDS) are, as you know, on my potential stage
4 tops list, with stops....
2) cnbc, Mon., reporting MYL, down "on 1st bad news"....remember, I gave you
MYL herein, as a put, at 35., well, PSYCLE-wise, this is stage 6 behavior, dig ?
Again, learn, that "the 1st bad news" ONLY comes out, AFTER a previously stage 4
stock has ALREADY fallen somewhat....by the time such "news" is normally
disseminated, it is most often too late....3) Cabletron (CS) came out with losses, bad news, etc., yet its stock shows pot. double-bottom....gotta figure the vast majority of tax-selling has been done on this one here, around 8, with close stop below, just in case, anyway....not a sure thing, but a decent shot again.... ditto, CIEN....4) BW, 12/28, according to their year-end poll, showed that 80-90 % of people did not change ANY holkdings, in 1997, or in 1998, during corrections ....wow....as I explained to you in an earlier NL here....and, Only 24 % of those polled, described Internet stocks as "very overvalued" here....look out....last, a shocker: 70 % of people polled did NOT buy ANY common stocks, nor any Mutual Funds, at all, during 1998, nor in 1997, or in 1996 !!! Just who are they polling ?
d) more late, misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) cnbc,
12/22, 7:40 am, another below-avg. NL writer, actually said, "its been too warm,
so a lot of people are not eating soup" as the supposed "reason" why his
incorrect buy on Campbell Soup has not worked, it being down from 59 to 54
(re-read my "Scenarios" Booklet)....actually, such a non-volatile stock, is not
worth talking about anyway, yes ? ....2) same old useless, misleading song: the
last few days I have been hearing about "the possibility of a potential santa
claus rally"--- Gee, isn't that what we HAVE been having, except for a few
depressed I.G.'s ? Again, the Media, and Brokerage people are always
'expecting" things which have already happened.... 3) BW mag., 12/28, gave The
Prudent Bear Fund a further, puzzling endorsement, giving their mgr. 3 pages of
press--- yet, 75 % of the stocks he had given BW to "sell short" for 1998, ROSE,
a lot, instead--- and he had NO stops on them !!! What kind of help is that ?
4) cnbc, Tue., 10:20 am, the chief strategist for S & P itself, had, as
his/their favorite new buys here, extended stocks in the Drug, Biotech,
(Tele)Commun., Software, and Bank, groups....He bragged about having beaten the S
& P index by (only) 5 % last year....5) Barron's, 12/20, Morgan, Stanley Internet
analyst gal, "remains very bullish on the big-names" in that I.G., even here,
saying, "they are still relatively cheap given thier huge market opportunities" ....You gotta be kidding....and they pay her for that opinion--- now ? up here ? with no advised stops, nor protection, nor profit taking into parabolic rises ? So, note, I added more Internets to sec. (3) puttables....6) BW, 12/28 issue, why they gave Elaine Garzarelli space again, except as maybe a contrary indicator (again), is upsetting, but I digress....Of interest, besides her being real bullish, from totally fundamental basis, she said "70 % of my clients think we're in a bear market", which, actually, might be a bullish contrary indicator, except that her managed money, as least until Oct. 1998, has had a pretty not-good record in reality (publically known)....her other quote, "any correction will be limited, an opportunity to buy". So, I assume, she will also (again) accept another July to Oct.-type, 50 % drop in many extended stocks from here ?
7) BW, 12/28: chief of quant research at MER, said, "earnings growth is negative. We're in a profits recession." (honest)....HUH ? ....8) am I the only guy noticing, that the mass 95 % B-firm anlayst opinion for 1999, is almost uniformly, for "much higher stock prices", yet "definitely lower earnings, or at least lower growth"....but, at this stage in the patyterns among many "extended stocks", that likely ain't gonna fly....
As you have seen the last several months, how much better one does, just
"doing" the best individual stocks, technically/sentiment-wise, while ignoring,
or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages"
comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do
much better, and save time, by not having to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless info., anyway, and we also help remove potential emotional problems
before they begin.
and longs, PETC (8 to 11 to 8-), HOC (14+ to 17+ to 14+), GRERF, JBAK, VSNR, PRGO, SAMC, IHSC, HBI., TVX, UPR, BEV, UDR, TBI., AR, DX, 1/2 pos. CWC, and puts, JCOR (62+ to 54+ to 63), FISV (48+ to 44+ to 48+), LBTYA, FTEN, VIA/B, CTSH, METZ, QWST, ATHM, DELL, ISCA, STI., LIN, ASO, VIA, GNE, BOL, CGX, WAT, PGR, USW, CLX, NDN, CF, RX, for VQ, very small losses....too many Q, S, losses, but, as I said, of small consequence in the bigger picture, this time of year....
NOTE: while all the $ under 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We just prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for so short a time period, yes ?
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note,
many more/new/revisited stocks here, and most are still pretty low-priceds): each
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) CSE @ 19+, CYM @ 9 1/8, FGI. @ 11 11/16, FP @ 2 1/4, HCM @ 4 1/8 IDTC @ 14-, PLC @ 4.06, PPP @ 11--, UBIX @ 5.06, VRC @ 7, VTA @ 5.06, ZITL @ 3,
(repeats--- please note some New ones here)
ACLY @ 2 5/8, AEC @ 12+, ATV @ 1 5/16, ATW @ 16.06, BDS @ 3, BEZ @ 19+, BLM @ 2.06, BS @ 7 11/16, CAU @ 0.31, CQB @ 9 3/4, CS @ 8, DO @ 22+, ELCO @ 1 7/16, ELY @ 9 7/8, GGC @ 14 13/16, GLDR @ 1, GLM @ 8 3/4, GLT @ 11 11/16, HBI. @ 5.06, HMY @ 6.06, IAIC @ 1 1/4, ICA @ 4 9/16, IHSC @ 6, IPIC @ 3-, IT @ 19+, JBAK @ 4.06, KRY @ 0.44, LTC @ 16+, LWN @ 7 3/8, LYO @ 16+, MAVK @ 5 5/16, MGN @ 2 1/4, MHR @ 2 7/8, MIFGY @ 8-, MS @ 1.06, MSN @ 0.41, MT @ 13++, MWY @ 10, NBR @ 12+, NBTY @ 5 13/16, NE @ 12+, NGX @ 7/16, NOV @ 2 1/4, NR @ 5 13/16, OMPT @ 7+, OO. @ 9-, PAR @ 7+, PDE @ 7-, PGO @ 12.06, PRD @ 18-, PVH @ 6 5/8, RDC @ 9 9/16, RRC @ 3-, SIF @ 12-, SSC @ 11/16, TLZ @ 4 5/16, TOX @ 3/16, TRMB @ 7+, TRP @ 14+, UPR @ 8 3/8, VC @ 3 3/4, VGZ @ 3/16, VTO @ 4 7/16, WFT @ 17-, WND @ 5, WS @ 1 11/6, ZAP @ 7+....most are still EVB's...."buy low", right ? Note, we are revisiting some "previously given/traded" issues, and a few whipsaws, back in....and, more importantly, that, now, AFTER recent rises, most "new buys" are real cheapies, and/or "laggards" with less "sexiness", dig ? What does THAT tell you ? also see the "just missed" issues, below....
NOTE: as I teach in the "green Guide" Booklet, you should
already understand, that, very often, there is NOT "just one day" when my ideas
become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/
fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5)
anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU noticed them
herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts
of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want
"longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....
*** remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! This is covered in "the Guide" and herein, endless
times.... "just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING
the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, and, of course, LEARNING the
stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media patterns.
** Important: took, SME, BBA, HPH, BCP, AG, UC, --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made
quick, new lows....and/or, they need more work, technically....also recall the
last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give
"something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective",
including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,some over $ 20. stocks, and
some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or
L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices,
and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable
patterns, in each NL.
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS", for potential Drops:
alphabetical by symbol: (new ones) AMAT @ 46+, AWS @ 29-, BRCM @ 121, BBOX @ 37-,
CBXC @ 27-, EQU @ 26, INKT @ 140+, LCOS @ 64+, NVLS @ 58-, PMCS @ 64, PNU @ 55+, RATL @ 27, RFMD @ 50, SEIC @ 100, SNPS @ 54, YHOO @ 250+,
(repeats) ALTR @ 58-, BBK @ 39-, BEL @ 59-, BLS @ 91+, CAH @ 71+, CMA @ 68, CQ @ 38, CSC @ 69, CTXS @ 90+, DLX @ 36, EAT @ 26+, EFBI. @ 46+, ELNK @ 70, FAM @ 44-, FDO @ 20+, FITB @ 71, FRX @ 49-, FTU @ 63+, GM @ 74, GPU @ 45, HAE @ 23-, HLYW @ 29+, MMC @ 59+, PNY @ 35+, PZZA @ 43+, SFXE @ 55-, SWC @ 37+, TI. @ 84-, USTC @ 68+, XRX @ 113-....and/but, remember, I/we have NO "market scenario", ever, as you know....and, note, there have been too many minor breakouts all of a sudden, so I am taking more real small, quick Puts losses above, and NOT fighting the tape, in those stocks....But that does not mean I am not finding more/new ones, in our Puttable Ind. groups....
and/but, Took, MEDQ, ECLP, MVSN, TSFW, FTEN, COMS, BGEN, AMSY, PSIX, OSSI., IMNX, PDX, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's.
....and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", AGTX, CHRZ, TAVA, TSO, COO, PCP, SWW, HNV, PAM, BA, BD, as Longs near very recent lows, and, EFX -10, XLNX -6, EBAY, MAST, UNPH, AJG, DS, as Puts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this biz, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing such charts, also tells us, whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)
also, see, that GALTF 26+, GILD 36+, INCY 40-, IDPH 48, KMAG 10+, TEK 28,
IMRS 27+, VSVR, PETM, EFII., went higher still....I gave you these herein, near
their lows....
note: please appreciate, that I have subscribers who want "real quick and
out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger potential
gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will hopefully
learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can really be
accomplished at times, if one lets them....another, of many reaons why we are so
against "day-trading": why anyone would limit one's potential, and increase one's
stress, on purpose, is beyond illogic.
and/but, then, seeing many pullbacks, like, ALL the Oil
Service and Steel stocks, SHG 5 5/8 up 5/8, HMY 6 5/6 up 5/8, ESV 9 5/8 up 5/8, UPR 8 7/8 up 5/8, NOI. 10 1/2 up 3/4, PGO 13+ up 1 1/8, ADM 17 1/8 up 1 3/8, ESOL 2 1/2, HAL 33 1/8 up 2 1/2, PHYC, IHS, MCL, WJ, INPR, BUR, LWN, LTV, JOB, JBAK, CEI., HOC, ATW, VTS, SHG, PAH, AIN, NX, NOV, HP, MGN, PAIR, IPIC, TWA, RRC, BTC, TXB, DBRSY, SRR, UNO, HBI., TRMB, APFC, IHSC, NBR, RDC, JBAK, MAVK, SUL, PDE, VTO, WFT, GGC, NGX, SSC, MCN, DAY, CCH, UPX, OO, MS, NS, DO, NE, Z., pb (pulling back)....some of these are also in "ms" list below.
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close
stops....Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, to increase your chances of being in
the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2
are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be
able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders,
and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also
eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T.
gratification"
and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or
else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* Note, how I, again, am giving you some Puttable stocks which are Falling,
as most of "the market", and especially high-priced, name, quality-type stocks,
rise, again....that I am among the very few, giving out ANY profitable puts,
since early Sept. (and tons more, from March, and from July through Oct.) should
be enough, yes ?
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards/near
support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, and/or as in
section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....
remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so
please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their
thing....**** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
NEW: notice how, OSSI., PPDI., MAST, XRX, JCI., GNE, GM, CG, each fell
quickly to their 200 DMA's, which, notice, were relatively close to their tops
anyway....but, we also caught their Puts anyway, see ?
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): ATHM -8 3/8, +5, PZZA +2 1/2, -1 1/2, ALTR -2 1/2, +1, LCOS -3, BLS -2, BFO -1 1/2, GVA, RCGI. -1, CSC + 1 1/2, CBC -1, FTU, BBC, FDO, PHCC, USTC, MSPG +4, PRGN -2, RFMD +1 1/2, SEIC +4, FITB, MSBC, OMC, DLX, CBC, CTXS +5, GM, PG +6, XRX, RCGI., MMC, COX, FAM, HMK, EFBI., EAT, SFXE +4....See, many stocks, and Internets, must still "follow-through", and break below recent lows, to warrant holding their Puts or shorts....
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for Rotation":almost no great Bases here, just many decent EVB's and
double-or-triple-bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows
here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: when
there are more stocks listed in an I.G. here, that tells you I feel more strongly
about that I.G., right ? Which, in turn, tells you a lot about how "the market"
looks, sometimes....
Semis/Comp./Techs: please see "Techs", listed, in the "watching" section, just below.
new group, somewhat riskier, longer-term: (Y2K) "Year 2000": (CMND, ACLY, IAIC, MIFGY, ONLY near recent lows, is maybe too late already, yes ?)
Prec.Metals (TVX, GLDR, KRY, CCH, VGZ, DAY, CAU, all real cheapies, risky)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Paper) (CCC, CSE, TEN, FNL, BS, TFT, LTV, GGC)....and maybe "Copper" double-bottoms's, soon ?)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (TRP, LYO, NBR, WFT, RON, FGI., HP, TDW, ATW, NE, NOI., GLM, MHR, RDC, WEL, PDE, ESV, TRMB, near their recent lows, only)
Biotech/Health/Medical (add, BLUD, to, MATK, DURA, NOV, PHYC, GNSA, SHG, VTS, TGX, LXR, TOX, ULB, HIV, CCLR, IPIC, TOX, MPN, IHS, MT, MS)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (add, COO, to, WIND, SAMC, PAR, PVH, PBY, SRR,
HMY, KFI., MSN, OO, UNO, BLM, GCO, HBI.)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (add, PAM, LOD, to, HET, SER)
Employment (OLS, JOB, MPS, RMDY, ESOL)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends, may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, BED, BD, LOD, PRT, SMT, OH, WDN, RTC, ACH, ARI., FHS, AMMB, AAM, NHR, BRE, PAH, UC, AAC, ALF, AEC, AML, AMMB, BNP, BOY, BRI., CPP, CMO, CRO, ENN, FBG, NDE, KPA, LTC, JPR, MAA, PMC, RFS, SIR, SPF, TMA, FP, MT, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
NOTE: Tax-selling bounces beckon, yes ?
And, as I have been saying here, even though I have given you
a ton of quick 50-100% gains, since Sep./Oct., do NOT expect as large rises off
bottoms, as when I gave out similar "EVB" Techs, in the late '97/early '98 period
(nor, from the late '95 to early '96 period....I was first/only to do so near
their lows at those times as well), because there are NOT many "true bases"
here--- just some with good EVB's....we accept occasional Q, small losses in some
longs, w/close stops, along the way, to get to the Bigger Winners....Also note
that many already popped stocks pulled back, after their recent/initial "dead-cat
bounces". This is normal, and welcome. Hey, many formed better bases,
double-bottoms, etc., right ?
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they
might have been Hypothetically "bt.": SME, BBA, HPH, BCP, AG, --- were taken
Off....These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still
making new lows....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which
set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm"
stage 7", first.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
add, PPP, SUPX, VTA, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here,
plus, (alphabetically by symbol) AFCI., AG, AGTX, ALN, ALR, BA, BAANF, BD, BDS, BEZ, BGO, BLX, BTC, CEXP, CFB, CHRZ, CQB, CS, CYM, CXI., DRQ, ELCO, FHCC, FLM, FP, FTL, GDC, HCM, ICA, IDTC, ILX, INPR, IT, JDAS, KNE, LPX, LSS, LWN, MANU, MWY, NPSI., OH, OMPT, P., PAIR, PCMS, PCTL, PLC, PRD, RBK, SAA, SEW, SFSK, SIF, SNY, SOL, STRX, SWW, SYNT, TLZ, TMO, TSO, TXB, UMR, UPX, UTI., VC, WKGP, WTT, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some
"Finls., Foreign, Health"), plus, the Value Line issues: NSANY, DEMP, CEPH, GNSA,
OFIS, BUNZ, SEW, TSA, MGN, COE)....some here, some Not just yet, as some still
need more work, technically... and/but most, only on pullbacks towards
lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....also note, more addeds are also, in
Energy, Health, Tech, REIT, Retail, Apparel, ind. groups, dig ?
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Fuller, Potential Puts
list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY, do NOT "chase
down":
note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the
ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....
(banks/insur.) FITB, BBK, HIG, MSBC, CMA, CBC, FTU,
(comp./techs/s'ware) add, PMCS, CBXC, RATL, to, ALSI., BSYS, CTXS, CSC,
(retail) HLYW, LOW, FDO,
(telecom/commun.) BRCM, CVC, BLS, TEF, CDRD, LLL, BEL,
(medical/health/drug) LLY, CAH, EL, PGNS, MDT, PNU, RFMD,
(food/bev.) PZZA, EAT, UFS,
(utilities) AYE, BRG, NIS,
(internet) add, INKT, ELNK, LCOS, YHOO, EBAY, to, BCST, MSPG,
(others, misc.) PHCC, SEIC, EFBI., FRX, HMK, ENE, SSP, INSS,
also watching: added, SNPS, BBOX, INTC, to, ALTR, RINO, AXNT, CHIR, AMAT, BBBY, AET, AJG, EQU, HTN, DA, DS, TROW, NEON, GBLX, NLCS, NTLI.,
the Best Puttable Industry Groups: still, Extended Banks, Health/Medical/
Drugs, Insurance, Finance, Computer, Retail, Internet, Aero./Def., Food/Bev.,
High-PE techs, all types of Tele.-Commun., in no particular order, as the most
probable Puttables, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their
patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
Also, extended Biotechs may be beginning their top process....
Besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned
from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I
promised I would re-run "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm"", so,
started 12/7, and for the next 7 NL's, here they are again: today, stage 6:
"PSYCLE sm" stage 6: the "Confusion/I don't Get It" phase of the decline: as
extended stocks break their uptrends, and have their first decent correction for
the first time, approaching their still-rising 200 DMA's--- with the decline NOT
being accompanied by ANY "bad" news at all, yet, stage 6 represents the breaking
of/below the stage 5 low....This break can be termed, as either, the "second shoe,
sometimes measured move" drop (a price drop roughly equal to that from the stage 4
high, to the stage 5 low, dig ?), or, the "I don't get it--- the positive
fundamentals are still in force, higher earnings, good news, etc., and no bad news in sight yet, so how come the stock has been falling ?" drop. Got that ?
Well, obviously, the "stock" knows things, which neither the misleading/ "sensationalizing Media, and/or, the "overpaid, often-incorrect Wall St. analysts" know yet, yes ? I mean, it IS falling, right ? regardless of any "external" stuff.... re-read my "Downside" booklet....Anyway, sometimes, the stage 6 drop, can get all the way back down to the stage 2 high....think about that....Another important occurance in stage 6, is when "the 95 %", in their lack of PERSPECTIVE (re-read my Scenarios, and Psychology, booklets), only see/know of the most "recent" drop, and have no idea that that stock used to be MUCH lower, dig ? THEY say, "look how cheap it is now, compared to its high"....but WE look back 1-2-3- years, and say, gee, look how LOW it used to be, not too long ago....." See the difference ? A stock might be down from 70, to 40, recently, but it may have been only 5. two years ago, yes ? Again, "the 95 %" are too lazy/ignorant to view its past chart, for proper perspective....too bad for them.
In stage 6, as I said, we ALWAYS hear the first rumblings of "less-than-
positive" (or even negative) items, fundamentals, news, etc., as a necassary
requirement (and clue) that that stock is IN stage 6. Also, AFTER the drop,
when/if other stocks in that I.G. also look similarly, and all begin to form a S.T. base, maybe 50 % off their stage 4 highs, there is often a S.T. rally/pop, off the stage 6 lows....if so, that bounce occurs, INTO/during "bad/worsening news" !!! The same way stage 1 stocks rise, INTO/before any "better/good" news, stage 6 stocks are decent shots to rise, conversely....which is logical. In a big bull market, from a longer-term perspective, many stocks will only correct to stage 6, and NOT continue to fall to stage 7 (as in Oct./Sep. 1998, for instance).
The key, is not to buy too early, thinking stage 6 is stage 7....and/or, at
least have a real close stop if buying a stage 6 low....As you will learn next
time here, stage 7 has BIG, cathartic volume, and MUCH worse, publically disseminated news, fundamentals, and other characteristics....But only sometimes, when there ARE good fundamentals (and you know how I hate them, but I DO look anyway for that, in stage 6), stage 6 stocks become a more probable potential trade at those times. Remember, most stocks generally fall in THREE stages/ phases. But we never "guess", because, when/if the stage 6 low is broken below, we will still want to than see the stage 7 "EVB", lower, first....which I will cover next time here.
so, now you know the briefest basics of sequential stages 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and
6, in most all stocks' "PSYCLE sm"....oh, and, remember, everyone's perspective
differs: stage 1 can be viewed as, say, only a 1-2-month basing/bottoming period
after a big drop, if you are a S.T. trader, and/or, a 3-6-9-month basing period,
if you are a longer-term investor....and last, a bigger previous drop, will
normally lead to a bigger % rise, off the EVB/base low, and, the bigger the
previous rise, the bigger the potential drop, when/if breaks the uptrend, which,
I guess, is obvious....and vice-versa for tops....Hey, you'd be surprised how few
people, even pros, know about stage 1, or stage 4, at all....hope this helped.
Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops,
and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we
think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but
more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1
and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.
A final note: a stock can, of course, be in different stages, when viewed
from a shorter-term or longer-term perspective....I use 1-year and 2-year charts,
period, because we seek 1-2-3-month holds and moves, and NOT overnite, or daily
or intraweek moves....
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time.... "just get close(r)", and
do everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is
also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some"
"Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable,
than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close
stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, and drops, have proven
that yet again.