1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

We remain semi-hot, catching more longsiders from lows for tax-selling bounces I hear NO one else out there discussing any more, dig ? Often a good sign, "PSYCLE-sentiment" wise, yes ? note, our Puttables list remains kinda small....but Longside growing....nice I.G> rotataion in long section (2) below....

Important: when I said recently I am looking for a S.T. top in the 30-yr. T-bond, I mean in the 106 area or so....then a pullback, then possibly a run at its 12/98 to 1/99 all-time high of 109 3/8 or so ? but one step at a time....and I am NOT convinced the second run will occur yet....so, as usual, just look to take the big % quick gain, and move on....

once again, as taught you in my Booklets, note the predicted-by-me-first drop in Crude Oil price, accompanied by predicted-by-me-first pops in depressed Chem. and Plastics stocks (and, a while ago, Trans., Rails, and some Airlines), dig ? All supposedly assumed by the 'ignornat 95 %' to go DOWN when Crude price is UP, yes ? So, as you were taught, you fade them all, and win, at least 2/3 of the time, as usual....of interest, the Rotation had provided you two nice trade periods: first, the Rails/Trans. stocks, a few months ago, then, the Raw Material stocks more recently....neat.

and while we do not 'link' econ./political/worldwide stuff to stock prices, all I seem to see/read/hear recently are Negative articles on everything, pretty-much everywhere -- and you know what that means, sentiment-wise, especially with tax-sales likely ending soon, yes ? or are you going to miss them this time around ? just do what I suggest herein, and stay positive....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) the T-bond hit 105 and 20/32, new high.... 2) note takeover of LIT....and our LEA also up, yes ? recall who was first/only to give Def./Aero. stocks from their highs as Puts, then Buys from lows, almost perfectly, this past year, over the last few years, for you herein.... 3) added more depressed Health-related stocks long, and more extended Insur. and Banks, to my put lists.... 4) but, while I specifically was the first to give the I.G. out as buy from lows bases herein for you, we missed catching most of the Paper stocks rise, the first time any of their moves I have missed.... other than GLT....we are not perfect, but still awfully good, yes ?

....5) also looks like, as usual, I was certainly the first/only to give out the super-depressed Asbestos stocks herein properly from recent lows for you longside ....I figure, as with the Tobacco stocks last year (which, as you know, I was, as usual, also among the first/only to recommend near 'hated by nearly everyone else at that time' lows), 'the 95 %' won't even consider the Asbestos stocks until they are also way up nicely, yes ? the pattern rarely changes.... 6) and, as I was first/only to predict, more Chem./Plastics stocks are bottoming and/or bouncing.... 7) and added some depr. Elec.-products/basic equip. stocks, longside....the first/only doing so, as usual.... 8) and I still say some derp. Retail/Clothing-type stocks are bottoming as EVB's....as usual, I am the first/only guy saying/seeing that....
9) also note, as you have been taught, EIX lowered their dividend only AFTER stock fell recently, from 24 to 14, dig ? and, just for the record, "securitizing Calif. Utils. debt by issuing boinds, then charging innocent consumers surcharges, over years, to pay for them", looks likely....oy....oh, and also, a rate hike, of course....thanks for nothing guys.... 10) Thu., CNBC announced that "Auto" sales growth numbers were the worst in over two years....only AFTER their stocks are ALREADY down, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....of course, I now kinda like some of them, depressed potential bottoms, in section (6) below.... 11) also notice, I even gave you two Energies long: TSO and OIL, from base lows....and maybe soon, TMG ? wish there had been more, but proves how open "PSYCLE sm" traders are to ALL groups, even within extended groups.....please re-read my "I.G. Rotation" book.... 12) last, note, my 'the Golds are NOT beginning new bigger rise, but just pops, and/or rising back up to wherefrom they previously brokedown price levels' prediction seems to be coming true....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) big headline, Thu., "Lucent sets restructuring, sees loss, triggering sell-off in its shares".....uh, excuse me ? LU had laready fallen, from 70 to 17 - before this item, yes ? just as my "PSYCLE sm" teaches.... next.... 2) front-page headlines, L.A.T. 12/25, again confirms what I was among the first topredict: "Dot-Com parties dry up", and, "Uncertainty clouds Calif. economic horizon"....of interest, they possibly-correctly inferred that recent times remind them of similar circumstances in 1990.....hmmmmm, ay ? 'nuff said....

3) headline, L.A.T., 12/25, "Complacency of consumers leaves PC's on store shleves", exactly as I was first to predict herein, a while ago....they correctly explain that people are awaiting newer/spiffier models, whith older PC prices 'plunging'....but, they don't mention, that this has been the case EVERY Dec., past.....they made it sound unusual, which was, as the Media does, misleadiing and, as when i was first to prdict lower auto sales from when I predicted the last big recsssion in late 1990, I said then, that everyone who wanted a new car or home, at that time, had by-then bought one....well, that's what I said about PC's at their recent sales-level top.....the pattern rarely changes.... 4) the 12/25 L.A.T. headline, "Tech. Bust to lead to better IPO terms for investors", is correct, of course --- BUT --- it would have been better if they, as I did, had come anywhere close to calling the top in IPO heat last year, yes ? so, more uselss drivel, ay ?

5) recent L.A.T. headline, 12/25, "competition likely to intensify among mobile phone makers", comes out, as you have been taught to watch for, only AFTER huge stock-price drops in those "loved at their top when the L.A.T. never warned anyone of anything (right ?)", stocks....thanks nothing again, guys.... 6) and, finally, our wonderful Govt. guys, 12/24, announced that economic growth will be lower in 2001....well, duh....but, of interest, there is evidently a budding fight between Clinton who wants to use surplusses to pay down Govt. debt, and Bush, who wants to return that money to taxpayers in a tax cut....neither, of course, is honest or real, right ? BUT- please relize -and I am certainly going to be the first/only guy pointing this out - that, since they have BEEN 'paying down some Govt. debt', over 2/3 of all common stocks have gone DOWN decently, yes ? Even after one initial stage 3 year, the Techs joined the drop, yes ? so, NEITHER course of action will automatically help stocks, or our economy....in fact both actions may actually hurt our economy....more on this, in later NL's....

7) and, of course, CNBC only had pres. of FPL on, Thu., saying, "it's stock price has been on a tear"....of course, you know what THAT normally means is coming, ay ? ....8) Thu. 9 am, Bob Pisani asked, "how come the Retail stocksare acting so well ? everybody knows their earnings are falling and their fundamentals look terrible...." Get it ? Once again, I will have been the first/only to have given many out herein near lows....the pattern rarely changes....to your benefit, at least 2/3 of the time, yes ?

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) I met with a blkue-blood fundamental; analyst money mgr. guy Mon. nite, who, as you might expect, was shocked that I liked the depressed I.G.'s, like, Clothing/Retail, Steel, Techs, here, etc. Hearing this, of course, was a good sign, yes ? ....2) Tue., YHOO announced 'e-tail' sales are up + 50 % and more from last year's levels....yet, as you know (because I was first to predict it from their highs herein) their 'stock prices' (two different things, as you have been taught), are down - 75 % and more, of course....once again, proving that they cannot be 'linked'....'nuff said....

3) recent comments from PDG's pres., in the WST mag., when asked if the supply of Gold was 'finite', said, "yes, but we are seeing much higher central bank sales of gold worldwide, and, producers are supplying more and discovering more gold, making any central bank sales over 400 tons a year (last year they sold over 600 tons), a continuing depressant to the price of Gold....so all major companies that reduced their (new/old) production....but I still do not see any rise in Gold price through 2001." ....4) WMT announced Tue. the were lowering their expectations again, from + 3 % same-store-sales growth....gee, that's certainly worthy of a PE of 5-60-70, huh.....amazingly inept.... 5) Netzero, which 'promised' big-time to 'never charge anyone for anything', is beginning a charge for people who use it over 40 hours a month....read my lips, ay ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) more in the 'thanks for nothing' file: finally, Fri., 10-count 'em - 10, B-firms lowered their opinions on RNWK.... amazing, huh....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) having been giving you quandries about how many B-firms are lowering stocks ratings near lows, after loving them at highs, I should remind you (please re-read my Booklets), that they often muddy the waters, by, say, changing rating on a stocks from "buy" to "accumulate", or, from 'accumulate' to 'hold'....what the hell do those mean ? and what good does THAT do for anyone ? "hold' it, but don't buy it ? makes No sense....and they get (over)paid for that ? from 'buy' to string buy', from 'buy' to 'market perform', from 'accumulate' to 'maintain position'....from 'hold' to maintain position'....from 'NT accumulate' to 'LT accumulate'....and, from 'NT accumulate' to 'NT buy'....to which I reiterate: huh ? I'm not kidding....this is all real, and all drivel....last, and even worse, many seem to have gone from 'strong buy' from their highs - to 'mkt. perfom' - only at lows thereafter....don't get me started....

2) while you know I eschew most things global-political, the new budding alliance among Cuba, Venezuela, Iraq, is potentially scary....no need to elaborate....also, noting the previously-potentially-positive attempts at 'democracy', in Thailand, Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, hailed in the "Aisa miracle or 1993", then busted in the 'Asian crisis 1998', are not doing well still, as I also was amogn the first/only to have predicted herein for you.... also, predicted weakness in Japan, Hong Kong, and the problems in India/Pakistan, do not bode well for economy worldwide....as expected, for a while from here.... 3) big article, 12/23 L.A.T., about how "Tech. firms' political donations' have skyrocketed in recent years, from NOTHING in 1990, to $ 31 mm in 2000 (still kinda small, but rising sharply)....I wonder what the eventual results of this will be for them....their major agenda involves remaining unregulated, and I agree....the biggest contributor, of course, was/is MSFT....obvious....

4) a big high-end apt. complex just sold in Irvine, Calif. for a record price, pointing out the contiued tightness of that market....but I still see more and more stuff being built, so end is near.... 5) and, a special note: although, as you know, I am totally un-religious, etc., I did note that, evidently, with the problems the nasty countries around it have brought onto Israel, this will be the first year ever, with NO special "bethlehem" activities for Xmas....what a shame, just from a human interest p.o.v., ay ? See what illogical-man-made-taught-hate-from birth does ? next.....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....