Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I actually say/said, and would have said and would have done and felt, week by week, since then, employing my concepts, since I was forced undeservedly, illogically, and immorally, to stop my very valuable NL, and output, in April, 2000 - if only I had been able to continue my mostly exceptional output to the mass audience who has deserved to receive and take advantage of it, all this time....So, this missive is ONLY for MY own internal edification and proof, of the value of my output and concepts to others), and, thus, anyone reading this, has NOT gotten it from me....this has been just internally, and to make me feel good about myself, knowing that, when & if I get a proper opportunity to disseminate things of value, on a larger scale again, others will again benefit if they listen, learn, and act on my concepts and ideas, period....Seeing as my history has shown an amazing talent in prediction, shared in love from me, only to, way too often, be ignored, misused, not used, and sabotaged by those I sought to help and who sought to be helped by me, it is a tribute to my value, that I survive to this day, and continue to share in hope of helping others....

dated: 11:00 am, PST, Monday, Dec. 27 th, 2004


"2004: made some big decisions....more to make"

or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, honest, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, since March/April, 2000, due to the too-often at least semi-ignorant, semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, unenlightened, self-serving more than client-serving, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, hopefully twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, FOR MYSELF ONLY, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the massive alue and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....now if i could have gotten/can only get a bunch of decent people to DO what I suggest, they way i suggest, over a decent time period, this country would be helped significantly, yes ?

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

the DJIA bo > 3/03 level, remains below 11,300+ high of 5/01, while Naz still at early-2003 level, eh....OEX remains well below its 1/01 high, also....and SPY at 120+, is WAY below its 1/01 high of 140+, dig ?, while Util. bo (qsl), and, Trans. as well bo....

Jas....

and now ChnageW/TobinS writes, "full steam ahead", so watching for s.t. resitance here anew, dig ?, and, while still bullish, McMillan said some indicators are getting 'tired'....he did mention also, that previous a.t. lows in the old VIX were in 12/95 and 3/94....around 10+ each time....but also reminds us, that, many times, since 1993, low VIX prices-then-rises-in-the-volatility-from-VIX-lows have led to stks price RISES, not necessarily falls thereafter- as I have taught U for decades, proving once again, no one indicator is worth 'automatically hanging one's hat on', ever, right ?

and/but, as i mentioned previously recently, the I.I. showed higest most-bullish % at 62%, since 1/87.... 3) and, I know this is way off any subject, but, more than anecdotal evidence, that the English yuppies are starting to buy and occupy more of rural France, hmmmm....cb a good thing, I say....

So, as U have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just taking advantage of the best individual stocks and in rotating industry groups, chart-pattern-technically and sentiment-wise contrarily, mostly on the long side, but never eschewing the put-side, with preset stops and proper diversification - while ignoring or going opposite 95 % of all news, fundamentals, media messages, opinions, indexes/averages comments, from nearly everyone other than me, etc.
By just getting my output herein, alone, at least, U do much better, and save time, by not even having to "seek and process" the massive and ridiculous, often-misleading and/or incorrect, useless-as-D.A.F.P.P. info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional decision-making problems for U, B4 they even begin, yes ?

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) the Russell 2000 index made new a.t. high at 648 or so, recently, neat....more proof that 'buying low'/cheaper stks' is THE only/best way, period....'nuff said....as i have been teaching for decades, you're welcome.... 2) but the TYX yield back up to 4.922 % and the TNX up to 4.306 %, Mon. 27th, oy.... 3) but Crude Oil fell towards 41 pot. support anew, so much, as only I said, for any 'huge new rise', ay ?, you're welcome....gosh, after its parabolkic rise, sure looks like a near-perfect H & S top, as i was 1st to sugg. a while ago herein, with 'neackline' above-below that 4041 area, hmmmm..... 4) I also read where, evidently, the British Poiund-DXY ratio currency number, is, today, exactly where it was 20 yrs. ago, hmmmm....much ado about not much, by those 95 %-ers, ay ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians, your Govt., etc.:
1) this item is real, fundamentally, and, as usual, you have probably not heard much about it, because it is a rare POSITIVE item (dgms)....Your Confgress just passed the "corporate offshore tax reform bill", and what it does, shockingly, release/give/allow US based intl. corporations, a one-time, right-now, Dec. 2004/2005 tax year, + $ 200 B. tax benefit, as a one-time 'tax-holiday' on the cash they have in any & all foreign and offshore banks !, yikes !, normally they would have to pay that $ 200 B. to the US treasury this, and, next, year....as at least a 6 to 18 % tax rate, which they won't have to pay in 2005, dig ? but Bush and his big-time corporate cronies gave them a super break....which, of course, you & I will pay for, as usual, dgms....but, this, plus the $ 80 B. dividends from mergers and MSFT recently released to institutions & m. funds & people, will ensure we do NOT get a U.S. depression - yet....got that ?

plus, the arguably, $ 1. T. to $ 2. trillion more, still sitting in m.m. funds, savings a/c's, and the like....as U have seen, as only I predicted in late 2002 (dgms), if even a bit of that $ gets to stocks, well, U have already seen the nice gains off the late-2002 lows, ye, while the doomers continued wrongly-perma-bearish, dig ? oh, and small kudos to TobinS/ChangeW, for being the 1st/only guy to also mention this, months ago.... 2) 2 more 'fundam,ental/sentiment' worry signs: recent LAT front-front-poage head;line, "doe gets seasonal lift" (uh, late, aren't they ?), and, "DJIA hits highest level since '01", and, "cash registers jingle to wall st. bonuses...."it's instant gratification, and why not get it ?"....FLW ? dgms....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data, and/or stock price moves:
1) amazingly TDR wrote, Europeans find US products/svcs and prices a shopping joy Mecca", with the low DXY....welll, duh....then how come, idiots, U R not bullish on the DXY down here ?, dgms.... 2) just read evidently, LIbya, is the next oil-growth country not-yet-as-fully-exploited/developed-as the others, hmmmm....they have supposedly, 36 B. bbls. avail. ?, gee, and hte idiot only-bullish-on-crude-above$5055. people dont know this , if so, potentially BEARISH-for-crude item, l.t. ?, dgms....now U also know....

3) and this one, again, proves how great my concepts are, and how inferior ever-doomer NL's cont. to be: I read hwhere those Nl'sare still wirting, "the Chinese cont. to buy tons off Gold as ahedge against the falling DXY" - gee, hmmmm, ioif so, they how come Gold is nor much higher ?, and, gee, shorting the DXY might have helped them a ton more, all these past months, yes ?, do thes China have NO one intelligent enuf to have stop-losses or hedge capability other ways, than, just 'waiting for a bottom in the DXY, then over-late-acting, using only gold long, anly after IT's price rise" ?, dgms....next.... 4) and just read where Germany has been raising its gold-holdings-vs.-for.curr.-holdings in recent months, also late-high, dig ?, so even theryy seem not-too-brioght, a shock to me....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1)was the recent 62 % bullish NL reading from I.I., the highest since 1987 ?, thats what the perma-bearish TRA says.... 2) Gary D. Halbert, InvestorInsight NL says he has - get htis - 2 mm subscribers, yikes....and, while he WAS mildly correct - only since early 2003, being more bullish than bearish since, and slightly outperforming SPX, he failed to let people know how bullish he ALSO was from the Y2K top, dgms.... 2) Jim Jubak just wrote his '10 hated stks. to buy in late Dec. for 2005 gains"" list: MMM, CLE, LLY, GCI, MDT, MU, PRGO, REY, SNDK, SBC....

e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) TDR doomers reminds us that, from 2000-2002, about $ -5. trillion off stks. prices B4 recovery a bit since....he writes that, for a compararble amt. of $ to come off R.E. prices hence, they would have to fall -20 % to -33 %, dig ?, well, we shall see...either way, the world will not end, i say, but he does say....oy....at least he also mentioned BIG price falls in R.E. in 1969-1974, 1981-1984, 1991-1995, as I have.... 2) again, I also just read where, nationwide, avg. home price FELL from $ 224 K to $ 206 K in Nov. 2004, hmmmm....see ?

2) meanwhile, Martin Denholm of BullMktDynamics NL, citing the recent unpredicted-by-him, who only-got-bullish-recently (???) RE-price DROP, nevertheless, reiterated, a "huge new RE price BOOM immediately ahead !".... dgms....gee, once again, the 95 % are stunned, I amongst the few to have predicted, you're welcome....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:


still more quick, large % Gains:

0 more Longs, neat....
and,

0 more Puts:

as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts carefully, to learn patterns....note, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin" (hypothetically)


1 for VQ % G... bal. puts SINA, for big Q % G....

and/but, longs, bal. RPMM bd ?, fo ?, and, puts, bal. DJIA, 2nd Tran., 2nd Util. indexes, BPFH bo ?, for quick, mostly very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....are you learning the pattern ? if not, why not ?

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs): **** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol, if I have time:
again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:



1/3 JDSU @ 3.0- ? ny ?, 1/3 CHINA @ 4. db ?, 1/3 SPRT @ 5.1, the US dollar DXY @ 81 w/close stop, 1/4 CLTK again @ 0.80-, 1/4 BLLD @ 1.50 wcs,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): IRSN again @ 1.80-, ISIL @ 15.2, STTS fobd, SEHO @ 0.14 fobd, RPMM bd ?....

remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times, to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc., continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal, usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....


*** Important: took, COMS, TMEG bd, TSIC, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),

added, puts on some Bonds, 10-yr.March, @ 113- (TYH5), to,
OEX @ 573+ ?, GLD fobo @ 450+, 1/4 GOOG @ 199-, BPFH bo, no ?, EVG @ 41+,

"Repeats":

copper again around 1.47+, ACAT @ 27 again, BKMU @ 12+,

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, herein)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", , as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, , as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7).... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the patterns yet again:
several nice pops among given-from-lows techs:

BLLD 1.89 up 0.41 nice, STTS 5.88 bopb, 6.38 bo ?, CLTK 0.89 up 0.07, ARRS 7.23 up 0.40, ELY 13.48, WM 42.25 bo ?, CNN 6.49 sos, CHINA 4.74 bo ?, up/further since last NL here....and, MCEM 23.35, bo ?, SINX 0.04+ bo,

and, these are either pulling back, or bouncing, after expected pb's already occuring/occured:

the DXY 81.65 pb, LSCC 5.83 up 0.75, CHINA 4.08 pb, bopb, 4.70 up, ARRS 6.90 pb, msa, ESST 6.93 pb, 7.39, CNN 6.32 pb, sos, EVC 8.39 up, msf, BLD 1.77 pb....also note, IRSN 2.13 pb, 3.18, CHINA 4.52 pb....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:

(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or else, yes ?)

JDSU 2.97 dn, msa !, AGR.B 1.15 pb, 1.30, PLNR msf, SEBL sos, SEHO msa, PSY soso, BCGI. sos, BEAS soso, PMCS, L. fobo ?, CNN sos, RPMM ?, DSS....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may be too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, so stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:

SINA -2 sowo, TYH5 bond, 111.4 dn 1.5, down/lower since last time here....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):


these must weaken anew:

OEX, EVG, UCBH (fo)bo ?, BKMU fobo, BPFH fobo, Copper, posas, Crude, ACAT, GLD, are and/or up/dn, bouncing, when they should be falling more....DJTA 3800, 3755, eh....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?

some Depressed:
*** in lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depessed....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added:

added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones, as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?

but, now, 10/5, many are already up, so only buying them near lows - but you knew that....
obviously, many have already bounced, so oopbo for most, yes ?
added, ETLT, to, CGFW opbo, JDSU ?, SINX fobd ?, AAI. obpbo, TXEO another super spec., BLLD ?, BLDP db ?, to, PMCS opb, ISIL opbo, PCLE tln, CY obpbo, CMOS tln, CHINA, ESST mtln, ESPD obpbo, STTS, SKIL ?, SWY fobd ?, SNPS obpbo, OATS evb, SGI. obpbo, PKS ltp ?, SUNW tln, to, SEHO ?, MCDT opbo, DCLK tln, CPWR ny, RPMM ? fobd ?, TSM tln, NYB ?, SONSE, SYNO ?, LSCC opb, ISIS ovbpbo, NITE obpbo, SANM obpbo, TQNT opbo, XOMA tln, CLTK, ADCT ovbpbo....

and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while you wait ?
added, DCS ?, ZF obpbo, EVC obpbo, to, CNN obpbo,
and, watching 2 cdn. o & g. royalty trusts, C.AY.U, and C.NAE.U, (APF energy trust, & NAL o & g trust), but both are already around 11+ and 13++ now, so too high ?, yielding 15 % each here anyway ?, eh, tln ?,

and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):

(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....

note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view each of these, B4 acting on any !, recent drops to s.t. support means only 'put' these after rallies towards highs, right ?, so removed a bunch, with recent drops....and may remove more, so chk. charts B4 considering:

note, finally removed some stks which had, obviously, already worked big-time, or broken out, belatedly....

added, to, GLD fobo ?, GOOG oso, GCD ?, ACAT, EVG, BKMU bo ?....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:

added, Extended: (for I.G.'s, please see sec. (2) above, from now on, , all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs.... this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES