1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) the DJ. Util. Avg. up from 270 to 280 already, and T-bond, so far, double-bottom ? and the DJ. Trans. Avg. completing its predicted saucer ? ....2) am still finding more depresseds in our favored I.G.'s, section (6) below....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC reported that "sony wants to make its stock more affordable to investors, so it will be splitting 2-for-1 soon...." Exactly, toppy-soon "PSYCLE sm" behavior/comment, yes ? check its parabolic rise....re-read my "Scenarios" booklet....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) nothing this time....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, Money Managers:1) nothing this time....
e) more general items proving why one should ignore 95 %
of everything else out there: 1) Dec. issue, Esquire, article, "Proceed with caution", wrote, "according to the IPO Monitor, in 1999, 357 IPO's came to market, to date, and have averaged a 66 % gain....but, in 1998, that year's 384 offerings revealed a much more modest 18 % gain through 1999.... and any sucker who paid first-day trade prices on all of 1998's IPO's would have been annihilated...." So, caveat emptor again for year 2000, as I am intimating, for many os 1999's IPO's, from up here, yes ? actually, the 66 % gain in 1999's IPO's seems kinda small, doesn't it, considering all the hype pervading the Media....but, boviously, great returns anyway....
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. stock HWS (2 to 4) for Q 90% Gain....bal. puts RSC (38+ to 31+) for 60 % G....
and/but, longs, SCY, USL ?, HRC ?, IM ?, SFI., and, puts, "the S & P index", CAKE, BSYS, CHL, TSM, CMC, for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....most all are "Semis/Compu./Tech." stocks....but still been too many of them lately.... usually quite rare (but not lately)....I also wish I could be more clear about these '?' questionable sales lately....it just happens that way at times.... again, "cutting for real small losses" when necessary, which never hurts much.... in fact, they can actually help your 'psyche' over time, by keeping larger losses away, yes ? remember, more than a few of these "?" sales, are likely to revalidate, driving us crazy, regardless....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
AKS @ 16+, BGO @ 9/16, DTE @ 31+, ECO @ 1 5/16, 1/2 pos. MHR @ 2 7/16, SEI. @ 6++, 1/2 pos. TXM @ 2 7/16, 1/2 pos. WMI. @ 14+, 1/2 pos. WYN @ 2 11/16,
"Repeats": ABX @ 17+, ACL @ 16+, AIN @ 14 1/8, BDE @ 2 9/16, BDY @ 12-, BEV @ 3++, BKS @ 21, BLC @ 18+, BUR @ 3 13/16, CHB @ 8-, CPU @ 5 7/16, CRRS @ 1 11/16, DAL @ 48 1/8, DIR @ 14+, FIX @ 6++ ?, FLS @ 16-, GHV @ 1 15/16, GLB @ 12 1/8, GPT @ 24-, GV @ 5/16, HSY @ 48, HUM @ 7-, JBM @ 2 9/16, LDW @ 6+, LWN @ 7/16, LYO @ 11+, MAH @ 9++, MAT @ 12.06, MCK @ 20+, MSN @ 9/16, OCN @ 5++, ODP @ 10, PCLN @ 55, PDG @ 10+, PMC @ 8.06, RPD @ 2 1/2, RDRT @ 4 1/8, RDL @ 3-, SAMC @ 5++, SKS @ 15, TGI. @ 23+, TOY @ 13++, TPS @ 0.93, TRL @ 6.06, TVX @ 13/16, UAM @ 17++, VCR @ 1 11/16, WAB @ 16++, WCC @ 6++, WLV @ 13+, WSO @ 10+, "DJ. Trans. Avg." @ 283...."buy (only) low", right ?
still, nice, long lists for you lately, yes ? as usual, you have had several
opportunities to have bought many of these, as they have often pulled back to buy
levels, a few times, over time....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, SFI, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) FLEX @ 44+, HWP @ 113-, JNPR @ 345+, KSU @ 65+, LSI. @ 66-, RATL @ 52, RFMD @ 70+, VYTL @ 55+,
"Repeats": ASDV @ 55, BRCD @ 160, CNXT @ 73, CXY @ 20+, IMN @ 34, KMG @ 60, MGG @ 50, MGM @ 24+, PAYX @ 43-, PIOS @ 14++, VTSS @ 53+....
and/but, took, ASTX, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....this cleans up the list in section (7) for you....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", CEN, FJ, CR, BSX, F., HRP, U., DDC, TK, NCS, HSI., DPH, LTV, MSX, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, HNCS, MU, GTE, PHCM, RHAT, BWAY, MACR, EXDS, BBSW, JAKK, ALLR, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
some more nice rises for you: BDE 3 1/2 up 1, LB 1 3/4 up 1/4, TXB 7 1/4 up 1 3/8, WSO 11 1/2 up 1 3/8, PDG 11 3/8 up 1 1/8, BDY 13 3/8 up 1 3/8, WLV 14 7/8 up 1 1/8, AAS 13 7/8 up 1, AIN 15 up 1, SKS 16 5/8 up 1 1/8, WMI. 15 1/8 up 7/8, ABX 18 5/8 up 1, AKS 17 1/4 up 7/8, DCN 28 3/4, HLT 9 3/8, URI. 18 1/4, SQM 31 3/4, HUM 7 3/4, BS 8 1/4, "the DJ. Trans. Avg." 293+ up 11, higher, since last time here....also, note, SHW, over 20 again, and, LNCR 32+, MM 17-, CDN 22+, CPQ 29, higher still....also, note WS, a steel stock I gave you, up parabolic, like VVUS (S)....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: TOY 14 3/4 up 1 1/4, ODP 10 1/2 up 5/8, ABX 18 3/4 up 1, EC 17 5/8 up 7/8, PDQ 8 5/8 up 1/2, DAL 49 3/8 up 1 3/8, IRSN 2, BD 8 3/4, MAT 12, DLX 26 1/2, HM 8 1/2, RPD, TSN, FOE, MUEI., MAH, LYO, WDC 3 5/8, TPS, HLT, ZMAX, LPX, BBC, PWN, NHR 8 7/8, CPU, PRD, WCC, BAMM, JBOH, CRRS, BKS, HUM, PIR, RDRT 4 1/8, HSY, GHV, SYNX, PCLN 55, ALU, WAB, CTHR, SAMC, GLB, BGP, ALB, TOK, UVA, UNA, CHB, AIN, TSN, FIX, CPU, PMC, LDW, HOC, MSN....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) UAM 17 1/2, TRL, TGI., GHV, HRC, HSY, LDW, HOC, FIX, VCR, BEV, UAM, RDL, ALB, PRD, IM, DIR, RPD, PWN, WAB, GLB, JBM, NHP, CHB, UVA, MSN, HUM, GHV, 'golds'....again, longside not too sexy....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
some nice drops for you: JNPR -27, RNWK -14, CNXT -9, RATL -6, RFMD -5 1/2, CYBS -6, ASDV -4, LSI. -4, PSIX -2 1/2, FLEX -2, HWP -1, KSU -1, CYBS, lower since last NL....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (IMG, AAS, HUM, GHV)
Prec. Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, HM, ABX, PDG, BGO, ECO, longer-term, on pullbacks)
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
emerging groups ?: "Cap. Goods/Mfrs.", "Athletics/Apparel", "Housing-related", Gaming, Foods, Waste, and, "Funeral" stocks down the road ?
and, maybe, some depressed Y2K's, still: in no particular order, near lows only, with close stops only, these are more risky: (IAIC, SAA, ZMAX, ENCC, VXTR, PHXU), some others up big, already....
and, these REIT's, most also with real big potential Dividends ? (NHR, GLB, NHI., NNN, DDR, FCH, LTC, PDQ, CEI., GTA, ARI., JDN, KRC, ESA, AER, ALF, CBG, PAG, etc.)
"Transportaion" (LUV, MAG, WAB, DPH, F., DAL, TEN, R., may still need work)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, add, CRRS, RDRT, LAF, TXM, HLT, MHR, QTRN, MCH, to, EC, STS, DROOY, WDC, AAS, TVX, FOE, LWN, CPU, AIN, LMM, MAT, JOB, PIR, BWL/A, RDL, PMC, SYNX, HIV, MSN, BUR, CCC, SAMC, XCL, OCN, WAB, (note, still more R.E.-housing, utilities, and, comp. storage), to,
also, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh....add, DGV, SRS, BOR, CBG, VDC, VX, CAN, AVL, TSK, DTE, TXU, NSP, LEN, WAC, NCE, ZQK, SEI, HAZ, TSA, DSS, TEI, ACK, ASH, NCI, SHW, STK, SUN, to, WSO, DLX, F., BSX, WYN, URI, NCI, AVS, FE, UAM, RT, FLE, AMI, ALR, MHR, TMD, TWA, PCLN, NCS, LTV, DFS, LYO, BDE, DOR, DAY, HLT, AW, GSR, ACL, TOY, WCC, BAMM, CTX, KRC, MIR, VFC, MO, FHS, JBM, GLG, MAH, ADM, IM, GPT, BTR, BUR, DCN, JWN, TSP, WMI., JPR, HWS, TPN, MPO, MKC, NHR, CMX, SQM, BEV, MZ, TVX, MUEI, AIN, (and, maybe soon also, HRP, HCN, KPA, HPT), as more potential REIT "EVB's", and may base/bottom ahead....and, now, more "Aero./Def." stocks, like, maybe, LIT, LMT, LOR, RTN, MLM, soon ? I will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
note, these lists are growing....year-end-tax-selling bounces ahead ?
note, more Retails on "watch list", like, SKS, DDS, KM, PIR, S., DFS, CNS, TOY, GAP, MAY, some may need more work, technically, but likely to bottom....this list is growing as well....
The last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
I also see more 'Insider' Buys after drops, in issues like, ODP, CNC, HUM, CMH, AVS, OH, FLE, FCH, CVD, BUR, BBA, BEV, TXU, HMK, FIX, HRC, CRS, DAR, MMD, CAN, PLC, URI., USL, CFS, EAR, CMH, DOR, FAF, PMC, OPI., NHI., AFG, BBA, CCB, CNA, ENN, TSK, MAG, and many others of that ilk, lately....interesting, how, as I taught you, even with significant Insider Buying, near lows, some of their patterns broke down....very unusual....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, GS, AIG, IMN, KSU, DS, LU, LEH, SLR, VSH, LSI, AMKR, BMCS, CNXT, ANAD, MRVC, PUMA, INTU, ISYS, FLEX, LSCC, LCOS, MCRL, MMPT, MCHP, ORBK, QGENF, SANM, SCNT, to, AFM, AUD, CY, GTE, MHP, NWS, STM, UK, WSM, TBL, TIF, TSM, JBL, GNET, EMLX, CUBE, RNWK, RFMD, RATL, HNCS, PSIX, VNWK, RFMD, MU, SEG, HWP, MGM, ASDV, JNPR, CSGS, PRSF, PLCM, TSCC, VYTL, BBSW, AFCI., APNT, VTSS, PTEL, NLCS, NT, TLB, RSYS, BWAY, CYBS, RDC, MGG, PHTN, TFSM, XLNX, ALLR, PIOS, AEIS, ILN, KMG, AMCC, MSTR, QCOM, CTS, BJ, IPI, CLRN, WLM, from recent past NL's,
**** new **** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: add, big-name Brokers, to, Banks, Electronics- specialty instruments, Wines/Liquors/beverages, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech,
Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related,
Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media/publishing, Energy, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....
NEW: given the season, and cross-currents explained above, none needed today....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....