Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
issue # 59, dated: 10:00 am, P.S.T., Monday, Dec. 28, 1998


just a quickie: know that I never answer any phone calls, while I finish composing the NL, early Mon. and Thu., from, say, 7 am, to 12 am, PST, and I don't check my new e-mail, until after that time, either...remember, there WILL be a regular NL, this Thu. Dec. 31, by around 11 am, PST.....

**** Again, a happy, prosperous, healthy, Holiday Season, and best wishes for 1999 to you....Newest Market Comments: Last time I mentioned lack of clarity, with slight "sucker breaks" in both directions, normal for this time of year, causing new, potential, fakeout, lows/highs, and suggested stepping back and VIEWING the charts, expecting tax-selling bounces among our depresseds, while still buying Puts on our extendeds ....The patterns still seem right, and I have historically done REAL well after such periods, in past years....L.T. historical patterns, will always overcome fear and lack of perspective, and keep unenlightened traders from Not doing what the patterns say, and not quitting prematurely, just because a few did not work.... many more others have, and will, work, as you know....Are you at least already in, each, a depressed Oil Service, Y2K, Health, Prec./Metal, Tech., stock long ? And, perhaps always, at least a couple of Puts ?

New: I just ordered/received, the new "Mansfield", 2 1/2-year OTC I, II, III, charts on (each stock HAS its 200 DMA on the chart !), and found a plethora of basing, real depressed stocks, which will give you a different, valuable perspective and teach you a lot (I won't list my choices for you herein yet, as some subscriber will call me complaining there are now too many stocks, even though most other subscribers will want to see these potentially exceptional stocks for tax-selling bounces, etc., so I can't please everyone, and will try to cut down the long "Mansfield" list, and put them into next few NL's for y'all), mostly Techs, Health, Telecom, Cap. Goods stocks, confirming my sec. (6) I.G.'s, below....You should all order their "special" issue, soon....I will get you details next few NL's....This costed about $ 48. for 3,500 stock charts....

Important: in addition to our depresseds and EVB's, I am also seeing some "secondary pullback lows" occuring, after initial bounces in many of our depressed stocks....this means the "tax-selling bounces" may already be starting for those issues, already....this is also S.T. stage 2 behavior, technically....see Section (4) below....and, while I am NOT recommending it forever, you may enjoy buying, and reading, just, the entire 12/28 issue of Business Week, just to get many potentially useable "PSYCLE sm" items....read sec. (2) below....I also usually buy other "year-end/year-ahead" issues of Investing periodicals, just to see things from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v. We often get decent contrary signals....

We are definitely catching many depressed bouncers for you herein, but am still seeing too many breaks of budding patterns, Longs and Puts....But I still see quite satisfactory patterns among our favored I.G.'s, sec. (6) and (7), and AM suggesting action, vs. inaction, for our normal above-avg. performance from here....being among the few honest guys in this business, means, I gotta cut losses when patterns break....last, rememebr, some stocks will "EVB/tax-sell bottom" in Dec., and others will have thier bottoms early Jan. Styep back, view the charts, gain perspective and knowledge and confidence....

If you are a "NEWER" Subscriber, please take the time to read ALL of the "wordy" parts of the NL, once or twice, anyway... If you are an "OLDER" Subscriber, of course, feel free to SKIP, to those NL sections you wish to glean your info. from. (Save all my CUMULATIVE letters, for future reference/educational learning/help)

*** If you are pressed for time, read section (2) to develop a "feel" for our Sentiment patterns--- and Section (3) always, while viewing the CHARTS....So much valuable info. in one place. Also, Obviously, when "more, or fewer" longs, or puts, are given herein, that also tells us more about "the internals, and likely future direction of the market", yes ? And, please, neither expect ME to stay "super hot" nor "super cold" forever. (and a helpful, quick "PSYCLE sm" note: obviously, "S.T." herein, means "short-term", i.e., weeks, and "L.T." means "long-term", i.e., months)

If you are not "already long" in the long/puts stocks listed, especially in sections (4) and (5), you may feel like ignoring some of the sections below--- feel free to do so--- but it is much better if you take the time to check ALL stocks mentioned herein....you can (and are expected to) also refer back to "the Guide" and my Booklets, for more info./rules, so I don't have to keep mentioning "basics" herein, that you should already know about....The process will become second nature to you quickly: buying longs, and/or puts, with close stops, diversifying, etc. Most, from Section (3), first....Some people ARE spending 2-4-6 hours a week with my NL's, others just 30-45 min. a week....I provide all differing types of stocks and ranges, for all differing situations/needs, types of investors/traders, to provide the most pertinent info., thorough choices, and for your proper DIVERSIFICATION....so, Learn first--- then put into practice, the long-existing, highly-reliable, repeating "patterns" I teach to recognize.

I assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo...I cannot infer my future performance will always match my past track record, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, stops, resistance/support.

Assuming you are already knowledgeable about all "PSYCLE sm" tenets, and/or just want the most current "actionable" stocks, view stocks from Section (3) first --- then also, from within sections (6) and (7)....you are expected to know/see when those set up properly, also "Industry Group Rotation", always cutting losses when they break their patterns. Then, read Section (2) for "How (Not) to Use Media/Finl. Commentary, from a Psycle p.o.v."....After reading a few NL's, you will already be aware of most stocks from the/our recent past....This simple process should be labor of enjoyable fulfillment and learning, and not a chore, dig ? I give you a lot; whether you use it or not is up to you....Last, "follow-ups" of assumed Hypothetically already Long and Put ideas, are in sections (4) and (5)....of course, if you want to get the most, for the least, read everything....Reading my output can make you a lot more money than the time spent reading most papers, magazines, novels, other NL's, watching TV, etc.

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
New Commentary: Although you know we NEVER try to "predict Indexes/averages/the market", here are my most Current "Market" Comments:

**** As predicted, still more stocks have been hitting resistance levels, double-tops, extended EVT areas, etc. Also, too many depresseds are pulling back, and/or must strengthen anew....Yet, I am finding more depressed future-buyables, among some "land-based" Industry Groups....The "PSYCLE sm" message, is that I recall similar cross-currents, this time of year, the last 3 Decembers....We did real well after each of those periods. Note how many NASDAQ stocks are forming left-sides-of-potential-upside-down-hook-saucers....Gotta be more tops coming soon, and NOT the beginning of further huge rises, in such stocks !

* KNOW THIS: I am pretty Comprehensive/Thorough, herein: There are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed herein: a) Stocks that can be ACTED on, here/now, if still right near given prices, in recent section (3)'s....b) Stocks which, if they get back to the price where/when they were originally suggested, remain/ become tradeable again, and/or, which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", also illustrating "Industry Groups" potentially shaping up, and/or as Educational ideas, for YOUR benefit, in sections (6) and (7)....and, c) already assumed Long stocks, and/or puts, which are rising/falling, and are not buys/puts any more, but just "holds" or "underperformers", in sections (4) and (5)....All previous ideas are followed up, till "sold" or "removed from lists". Call me if you need some places to get charts on the web....Learn the staged Chart patterns, then add my "Media/Sentiment/Psychological" patterns, and voila....

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL.... Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3). And note, the "learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2) and (8).

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) Notes: 1) note the pops in some of our Oil Service, depressed Health, and Y2K stocks....did you get in ? I am certainly the first/only, to have formally given the depr. Y2K's again, recently, for you.... 2) see ? Mon./Tue, again, "big stocks" were up, yet "the T/bonds" were down, still unable to surmount suggested resistance, as predicted.... 3) of course, I am wrong on some of our Bank puts, for VQ, VS losses.... 4) I was, obviously, wrong on NSOL, 173, to 121, to 149, "sentiment vs. PSYCLE sm" stage....quite rare, but, the Internets have been quite rare lately....at least we did Not recommend many other such puts, earlier.... 5) Note how many extended Banks, Insur., Health-Drug, Comp./Techs, are being touted by the Analysts/Media, yet seem to still have "tops/double-tops/resistance" here, and are on MY puttables list.... 6) and, yes, some Internets in Sec. (7) below, do still have V.S.T. "hook" tops, with stops above, again....will the movie "You've Got Mail" herald a top, similarly to when/how "China Syndrome", War Games", and others have, for stocks in those Ind. Groups, in the past ? ....8) note the new I.G.'s in section (7)....

b) 1) O.C. Register, 12/26: "Japanese economy continues to slide": a real negative article, saying "downward spiral continues, with no rebound in sight.... the situation will likely get worse before it gets better." Of course, more "dour economic reports" at this stage, are more a sign of phase 6 or 7 in its "PSYCLE sm", and, of course, though they may pull back again, many of their stocks are already up appreciably off their lows....no link there, right ? ....2) O.C. Register, 12/24, article on Pacific Sunwear, a stock I gave you herein as a Put, July, near its high....showing a chart price stock history (view it) they actually posited, "earnings continue to rise....so how come PSUN stock is down so much ?" We know....of interest, the pres. said, "we haven't suddenly turned stupid....the same analysts who loved us when our stock was up, are calling us now asking why it happened"....3) O.C. Register, 11/26: "Cigar craze in U.S. might be flaming out": Might Be ? As usual, in reporting the "cigar top" I called a year ago, now, the Media is late....Of interest, their major stocks fell mightily already, a long time ago, and recently, have been bouncing UP, INTO the supposed "worsening fundamentals" they reported in this "late" article....they report, "at the height of the boom, the 3 main companies in the ind. sold stock to the public and forecasted 30 % annual growth forward"....Stage 3 signs, back then, yes ? Very few predicted it would just be another fad....the pres. of the largest cigar co., saiud, "none of us in the ind. saw it coming"....dig ? The market for cigars themselves in the U.S., remains much bigger than it was several years ago, but, the "stocks" of those companies are way down, dig ? ....4) local So. Calif. R.E. people have told me that, many Home prices have fallen indeed (hey, that's a pun) 4-6 % so far, since my "PSYCLE sm" top call, early August....

c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/ companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary stock prices moves, etc.: 1) have you noticed, how, since my I.R. bottom/T-bond top signal, Bonds are Down, while the biggie stocks are Up ? No Link, dig ? ....2) B.W. mag., 12/28 issue again: seems their long history of "cover stories" as contrary signals are getting to them....their editor tries to point out some issues as "prescient", actually just two, in years, and even those two "covers" did not predict future [price moves that well....hey, charts and sentiment indicators predict, what magazine covers cannot....3) B.W. mag. 12/21 issue, nice "PSYCLE sm" potential bottom signal, as they published a real negative story on Boeing, get it ?

d) more late, misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) Nov. '98 issue, Bull & Bear newspaper: The Wall Street Digest, listed their "stocks of the future", as, AEH, BGEN, DELL, EMC, GNE, JKHY, NEON, AGN, GENZ.....interesting, because almost every one is on MY potential "toppy" list....Amazing, huh....Where are the people finding depressed stocks, like these were, years ago ? A better title might be, 'stocks of the past' ? we shall see....2) Bull & Bear, Nov. '98 issue, also had article, "Biotech stocks becoming more attractive"....becoming ? with tons of them ALREADY up a ton, near all-time highs, this is another example of "late" reporting, stage 3 or 4 in their S.T. "PSYCLE sm", yes ? If they truly wanted to help people, his headline/article should have existed 2 years ago, when they were low....but back then, few were interested, dig ?

As you have seen the last several months, how much better one does, just "doing" the best individual stocks, technically/sentiment-wise, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless info., anyway, and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
 Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period.... VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period) also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2" sale....ans, "css" means "covered short sale", where no puts options existed....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when originally recommended herein, to the price where very rently Hypothetically "sold"):
none, for Q % Gain....
and longs, HOC, Z., and puts, PMCS, CTXS, BRCM, FITB, XRX, COX, for VQ, very small losses....too many Q, S, losses, but, as I said, of small consequence in the bigger picture, this time of year....and still giving other, large % Gains....

NOTE: while all the $ under 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We just prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for so short a time period, yes ?

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right near these prices only:
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/ available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs): (note: If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables", long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a " + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-, means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....


**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, many more/new/revisited stocks here, and most are still pretty low-priceds): each alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) BAANF @ 10, CPU @ 12,1/2 pos. GCO @ 4 7/8, GSR @ 1.06, LFB @ 9 1/2, NPSI. @ 12, PDS @ 10++, TDP @ 13, UC @ 3 3/8, VTA @ 5 1/8,
(repeats--- please note smaller list again) ATV @ 1 5/16, BDS @ 3, BEZ @ 19+, BLM @ 2.06, CAU @ 0.31, CCC @ 6, CS @ 8, CTI. @ 6 1/2, CYM @ 9 1/8, DO @ 22+, ELCO @ 1 7/16, ELY @ 9 7/8, FP @ 2 1/4, GLDR @ 1, GLM @ 8 3/4, GLT @ 11 11/16, HBI. @ 5.06, HMY @ 6.06, IAIC @ 1 1/4, ICA @ 4 9/16, IPIC @ 3-, MAVK @ 5 5/16, MGN @ 2 1/4, MHR @ 2 7/8, MS @ 1.06, MSN @ 0.41, MWY @ 10, NBR @ 12+, NGX @ 7/16, OO. @ 9-, PAR @ 7+, PETC @ 8, PLC @ 4.06, PRD @ 18-, PVH @ 6 5/8, RDC @ 9 9/16, RRC @ 3-, SHG @ 5+, SIF @ 12-, SRR @ 8-, SSC @ 11/16, TLZ @ 4 5/16, TOX @ 3/16, TRP @ 14+, UPR @ 8 3/8, VC @ 3 3/4, VGZ @ 3/16, VTO @ 4 7/16, VTS @ 12+, WKGP @ 1 7/8, WS @ 1 11/6....most are still EVB's...."buy low", right ? Note, we are revisiting some "previously given/traded" issues, and a few whipsaws, back in....and, more importantly, that, now, AFTER recent rises, most "new buys" are real cheapies, and/or "laggards" with less "sexiness", dig ? What does THAT tell you ? also see the "just missed" issues, below....

NOTE: as I teach in the "green Guide" Booklet, you should already understand, that, very often, there is NOT "just one day" when my ideas become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/ fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....

*** remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! This is covered in "the Guide" and herein, endless times.... "just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media patterns.

** Important: took, BLX, BDI., FGI., --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows....and/or, they need more work, technically....also recall the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS", for potential Drops: alphabetical by symbol: (note, more new ones) ADBE @ 47+, ASO @ 44, AWS @ 28+, BBBY @ 32, CLX @ 116+, CSGS @ 72, CMVT @ 70-, FLT @ 44+, FTU @ 62+, GIS @ 78-, GPSI. @ 49+, GTSG @ 58-, HIG @ 56+, IMAXF @ 29-, SGP @ 55+, SNPS @ 54, SYY @ 28+, UST @ 35, WHC @ 28-, XLNX @ 62+,
(and more repeats) ALTR @ 58-, BBK @ 39+, BEL @ 59-, BLS @ 91+, BRCM @ 121, CAH @ 71+, CBXC @ 27-, DLX @ 36, ELNK @ 71-, EQU @ 26, FAM @ 44-, FDO @ 20+, FRX @ 49-, FTU @ 63+, GM @ 74, GPU @ 45, HAE @ 23-, HLYW @ 29+, INKT @ 141, MMC @ 59+, MSBC @ 45+, PE @ 42, PHCC @ 35+, PNU @ 55+, PZZA @ 43+, RMBS @ 104, SEIC @ 100, USTC @ 68+, WAT @ 84....and/but, remember, I/we have NO "market scenario", ever, as you know....and, note, there have been too many minor breakouts, so I had to take real small, quick Puts losses, and NOT fight the tape, in those stocks....But that does not mean I am not finding more/new ones, in our Puttable Ind. groups, still showing the "EVT" or umbrella or double-top patterns.

and/but, Took, CHTT, ORLY, PSIX, ECLP, OSSI., CHIR, XOMD, YHOO, APCC, GBLX, OSI., NIS, PG, EL, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's.

....and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", DEMP, TAVA, CEPH, RAIL, ACL, SCS, ALN, CBG, TOY, MKA, PCP, DRQ, FHS, PAM, HNV, IGL, DE, as Longs near very recent lows, and, UNPH, XIRC, TEF, MU, CI., D., as Puts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this biz, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing such charts, also tells us, whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.


All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit ....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, and still remaining long in most of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, up already, and/but acting O.K., so stay in these for now):

**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)

still giving you plenty of nice risers (note, these have always been listed, in order, from the biggest % moves, to the smallest important most recent price moves): ELCO 2 up 5/8, ATV 1 1/2 up 5/16, AAM 3 3/8 up 5/8, VTA 6 1/4 up 1 1/4, UC 3 7/8 up 5/8, UBIX 5 5/8 up 5/8, NBTY 6 3/8 up 5/8, IHS 13 1/8 up 1 1/4, IDTC 16 3/4 up 1, IT 21 1/4 up 1 1/2, SFSK 23 3/8 up 1 3/8, BEZ 20 5/8 up 3/4, MLHR 25 3/8, PPP 13 5/8, WND 6 1/8, up/further, since last time here....oh, and the takeover price on TIG is 16 1/2, not 18 1/2, still a real nice calls gain 4 U soon....

Also see, ATML 16, GILD 38+, EFII. 36, CHRZ 27-, PETM, IMRS, higher still.... while, FDC 30, TEK 30, CD, BC, hit their 200 DMA's....I gave you all these near their lows, check their charts for patterns....

note: please appreciate, that I have some subscribers who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....another, of many reaons why we are so against "day-trading": why anyone would limit one's potential, and increase one's stress, on purpose, is beyond illogic.

and/but, then, seeing many pullbacks, like, Oil Service and Steel stocks, SHG 5.88 up 0.82, PETC 9 3/8 up 1 1/2, LWN 8 5/8 up 5/8, RON -1, MIFGY, CMND, ACLY, HMY, ESV, UPR, NOI., PGO, ADM, ESOL, HAL, PHYC, IHS, MCL, WJ, INPR, BUR, LWN, LTV, HCM, BDS, JOB, JBAK, CEI., HOC, ATW, VTS, PAH, AIN, NX, NOV, HP, MGN, PAIR, IPIC, TWA, RRC, BTC, TXB, DBRSY, SRR, UNO, HBI., TRMB, APFC, NBR, RDC, JBAK, MAVK, SUL, PDE, VTO, WFT, GGC, NGX, SSC, MCN, DAY, CCH, UPX, OO, MS, NS, DO, NE, pb (pulling back) ....some of these are also in "ms" list below.

again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T. gratification"

* and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen,
and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(some of these are also in "pb" list above) Oil Service and Steels and cheap Golds, and, CEI. +1, CS, DO, RDC, TDW, TKOCF, PLC, LTC, BDS, MIFGY, MMG, OMPT, KRY, HOC, ESOL, CHK, MWY, NOV, MGN, ROP, TXB, MAVK, CQB, TRMB, AIN, WKGP, ATW, AEC, PCMS, HMY, HBI., JAMS, TLZ, MHR, CXI., PGO, RRC, AEC, PDE, TFT, AXC, PRD, VTS, VRC, TEN, IAIC, VOX, BUR, LXR, SSC, MCN, ELY, DBRSY, TMA, GGC, VDC, PRD, BEV, MCL, ADM, TOX, AMLN, NGX, BTC, VTO, VTS, AZC, CAU, CTI., IMO, MS, OO, DO, VC, cheap Golds, all Energy/Svc./Expl., and Steels.

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy puts on these now, but acting properly, stick around:
 Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further, read list carefully today: INKT -7, SEIC -3, AWS -3, GTSG -2, XLNX -2, SGP -1 1/2, GIS -1 1/2, GM -1 1/2, FTU -1 3/8, PHCC -1, ADBE -1, GPU -1, WAT -1, down/further, just since last time here....and also see 'bouncers' below.

* Note, how I, again, am giving you some Puttable stocks which are Falling, as most of "the market", and especially high-priced, name, quality-type stocks, rise, again....that I am among the very few, giving out ANY profitable puts, since early Sept. (and tons more, from March, and from July through Oct.) should be enough, yes ?

Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit.... remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing....**** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....

NEW: notice how, OSSI., PPDI., MAST, XRX, JCI., GNE, GM, CG, each fell quickly to their 200 DMA's, which, notice, were relatively close to their tops anyway....but, we also caught their Puts anyway, for you, see ? view their charts.


* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): INKT +11, -5, XCIT +2, ELNK -1 3/4, BFO -1, RATL +1, HTN, BBOX, PZZA, ALTR, LCOS +2, BLS, HLYW, GVA, RCGI., CSC, CBC, FTU, BBC, FDO, PHCC, USTC, MSPG +3, PRGN +2, RFMD +3, SEIC, FITB, BBK, MSBC, OMC, DLX, BEL, FAM, HMK, SWC, EFBI. +2, EAT, TI. +2, SFXE....See, many stocks, and Internets, must still "follow-through", and break below recent lows, to warrant holding their Puts or shorts....


Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn from.

6) Now--- Here are Other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades, or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also, there may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times, right ? Of course, near the highs in March, and July, this list was much smaller, yes ? It is logical and expected, after the recent mini-crash, That there have been/are more "EVB's", yes ? Also, remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their lows, with stops for protection.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for Rotation":almost no great Bases here, just many decent EVB's and double-or-triple-bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: when there are more stocks listed in an I.G. here, that tells you I feel more strongly about that I.G., right ? Which, in turn, tells you a lot about how "the market" looks, sometimes....

Semis/Comp./Techs: please see "Techs", listed, in the "watching" section, just below.
new group, somewhat riskier, longer-term: (Y2K) "Year 2000": (CMND, ACLY, IAIC, MIFGY, but ONLY near recent lows, is maybe too late already, yes ?)
Prec.Metals (add GSR, to, TVX, GLDR, CCH, VGZ, DAY, CAU, all real cheapies, risky)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Paper, Copper) (CYM, CCC, CSE, FNL, BS, TFT, LTV, GGC)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (add, BJS, PDS, to, TRP, LYO, NBR, WFT, RON, UPR, HP, TDW, SDC, ATW, NE, NOI., GLM, MHR, RDC, WEL, PDE, ESV, TRMB, near their recent lows, only)
Biotech/Health/Medical (add, EAR, FHS, to, BLUD, MATK, DURA, NOV, PHYC, GNSA, SHG, VTS, TGX, LXR, TOX, ULB, HIV, CCLR, IPIC, TOX, MPN, IHS, MT, MS, VTA, VC)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (SRR, COO, WND, PAR, PVH, PBY, SRR, HMY, KFI., MSN, OO, UNO, BLM, GCO, HBI.)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (PAM, LOD, HET, SER)
Employment (OLS, JOB, MPS, RMDY, ESOL)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends, may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, add, IMH, to, BED, BD, LOD, PRT, SMT, OH, WDN, RTC, ACH, ARI., FHS, AMMB, AAM, NHR, BRE, PAH, UC, AAC, ALF, AEC, AML, AMMB, BNP, BOY, BRI., CPP, CMO, CRO, ENN, FBG, NDE, KPA, LTC, JPR, MAA, PMC, RFS, SIR, SPF, TMA, FP, MT, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
NOTE: Tax-selling bounces beckon, yes ?

And, as I have been saying here, even though I have given you a ton of quick 50-100% gains, since Sep./Oct., do NOT expect as large rises off bottoms, as when I gave out similar "EVB" Techs, in the late '97/early '98 period (nor, from the late '95 to early '96 period....I was first/only to do so near their lows at those times as well), because there are NOT many "true bases" here--- just some with good EVB's....we accept occasional Q, small losses in some longs, w/close stops, along the way, to get to the Bigger Winners....Also note that many already popped stocks pulled back, after their recent/initial "dead-cat bounces". This is normal, and welcome. Hey, many formed better bases, double-bottoms, etc., right ?

and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": BLX, BDI., FGI., --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off lows), as "EVB's", diversified, w/close stops....these, plus the stocks listed above, and the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above, comprise the "total" complete long-side buyable lists in today's market.

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: add, AOI., CLF, GND, IGL, LSN, MAH, MSX, NWAC, NOX, PIN, PMK, TDP, TIE, TFN, TOY, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, (alphabetically by symbol) AFCI., AG, AGTX, ALN, ALR, ATV, BA, BAANF, BD, BEZ, BGO, BTC, CEXP, CFB, CHRZ, CPU, CS, CXI., DRQ, ELCO, FHCC, FLM, FTL, GDC, HCM, ICA, IDTC, ILX, INPR, IT, JDAS, KNE, LFB, LPX, LSS, LWN, MANU, MWY, NDE, NPSI., P., PAIR, PCMS, PCTL, PRD, RBK, SAA, SEW, SFSK, SIF, SNY, SOL, STRX, SUPX, SWW, SYNT, TLZ, TMO, TSO, TXB, TWA, UMR, UTI., WKGP, WTT, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls., Foreign, Health"), plus, the Value Line issues: NSANY, DEMP, CEPH, GNSA, OFIS, BUNZ, SEW, TSA, MGN, COE)....some here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically... and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....also note, more addeds are also, in Farm, Energy, Health, Tech, REIT, Retail, Apparel, Airline, Gaming, industry groups, dig ?

**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base" technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each, to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or rise, dig ?

7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?):

(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet) now, I add some more Puttables, again, after/into recent bounces:

Fuller, Potential Puts list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY, do NOT "chase down":

note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....
(banks/insur.) FITB, BBK, HIG, CMA, CBC, FTU, ASO, FLT,
(comp./techs/s'ware) CXBC, RATL, ALSI., BSYS, CSC,
(retail) HLYW, LOW, FDO,
(telecom/commun.) CVC, BLS, TEF, CDRD, LLL, BEL,
(medical/health/drug) SGP, LLY, CAH, PGNS, MDT, PNU, RFMD, BMY, BGEN,
(food/bev.) PZZA, EAT, UFS, GIS,
(utilities) AYE, BRG, PE, D.,
(internet) INKT, ELNK, LCOS, EBAY, BCST, MSPG,
(others, misc.) PHCC, SEIC, FRX, HMK, ENE, SSP, INSS, DLX, WHC,
also watching: added, ARMHY, XLNX, MXIM, IMAXF, DCLK, GPSI., GTSG, BVSN, CSGS, ASDV, CMVT, DKWD, VRSN, SDLI., SMTC, XIRC, BOBE, ADBE, BYND, SYY, UTX, WLP, UCM, UST, ABT, HIT, TER, CTX, EMC, VL, CI., to, CCRD, SNPS, IDXX, INTC, ALTR, AXNT, AMAT, UNPH, BBBY, RMBS, AWS, AET, AJG, EQU, HTN, DA, DS, TROW, NEON, NLCS, WAT, NTLI., CMA,

the Best Puttable Industry Groups: still, added some Homebuilding, to, Extended Banks, Health/Medical/Drugs/Biotech, Insurance, Finance, Computer, Retail, Internet, Aero./Def., Food/Bev., High-PE techs, all Tele.-Commun., in no particular order, as the most probable Puttables, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....

8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
Besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I promised I would re-run "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm"", so, started 12/7, and for the next 7 NL's from there, here they are again: today, stage 7:

"PSYCLE sm" stage 7: the "Exhaustion V bottom" ("EVB"): the last of the 3 potential stages of all big drops in extended stocks, often carries the worst disseminated, often REAL, "news/fundamentals", AND, important, having the "BDG" ("big down gap" drop --- re-read my Booklet on that), and often, a huge, cathartic trading volume 'blow-down' (the opposite of a 'blow-off'), which we need to see, to its eventual low.

It is SUPPOSED to seem like the company/I.G. is "never" going to survive....in fact, we WANT to hear/read industry people saying that, dig ? Stage 7 can only exist, after a BIG % price drop, not just a S.T. pullback....Say, 65-90 % off the highs....And, we can often take advantage of the normal "dead-cat bounces" that occur after such EVB's, back up 33-50 % back up towards its previous levels.... But that's another story....Anyway, stage 7 has to have people questioning survival, not just a normal, cyclical move....It helps to see headlines, mag. covers, etc., trumpeting "the end" of whatever is in stage 7, at that time.... Steel, Gold, Asia, Russia, Railroads, etc.

Keys to stage 7, involve knowing that most all companies and I.G.'s and countries DO survive, and rebound, and that it DOES seem darkest before the dawn, and that all declines contain the changes within, that create the eventual potential phoenix rise (kinda Zen, actually, at this stage). The idea, is that weak-willed bagholders are selling to strong-stomached buyers at this stage..... In a way, with close stops, divbersified, stage 7 buys are a nifty performance vehicle in all market atmospheres....Because all the B.S. has usually been wrung out of the stocks, we are often left with "pure technicals", and massive positive sentiment on our side. VERY, very few stocks "go to zero"....honest....Hey, someone buys each stock as it bottoms, yes ?

Remember, the time length of the full trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and another stage L.T. Now, one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for 10-baggers over several years....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %".

so, now you know the briefest basics of sequential stages 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, in most all stocks' "PSYCLE sm"....oh, and, remember, everyone's perspective differs: stage 1 can be viewed as, say, only a 1-2-month basing/bottoming period after a big drop, if you are a S.T. trader, and/or, a 3-6-9-month basing period, if you are a longer-term investor....and last, a bigger previous drop, will normally lead to a bigger % rise, off the EVB/base low, and, the bigger the previous rise, the bigger the potential drop, when/if breaks the uptrend, which, I guess, is obvious....and vice-versa for tops....Hey, you'd be surprised how few people, even pros, know about stage 1, or stage 4, at all....hope this helped.

Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops, and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1 and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.

A final note: a stock can, of course, be in different stages, when viewed from a shorter-term or longer-term perspective....I use 1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-month holds and moves, and NOT overnite, or daily or intraweek moves....
IMPORTANT: people keep trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time.... "just get close(r)", and do everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of each stage.

As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.

Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/ logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.