1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) note quiet, UNreported pops among our Gold stocks....did you get some/more near recent lows ? ....2) is this a breakout (up) in the DJ, Trans. Avg. ? if so, we were, again, the first/only to give it out near recent lows for you.... 3) note pops among the depressed Health-relateds, I was, again, the first/only to have given you near recent lows herein.... 4) a valued subscriber sent me a shocking 'pitch a stock bullishly via e-mail' on stock "IATV", as a 'new super buy up here', check it out....and, this was from an ex-subscriber....just now beginning to buy it/pitch it, after its parabolic rise, see it ? So, was/is kinda disappointing, regardless of how it does from here, that he chose this issue over thousands of others, still closer to their lows, etc. Let's see what happens.... But I wouldn't bet on it....the pattern is likely to be stage 3 or 4.... 5) with recent predicted pops among our 'cheapie' stocks herein, which I was the first/only to have given out near their lows, we now have a minor new high in the Russell 2000 index, not predicted by me....I think that most of this is due to new rises among the minority of 'internet/techs' in that capitalization-weighted index, and is NOT a broad rise, yet....This is NOT yet being reported by anyone else around....Of course, this is exactly what has been occuring in the NASDAQ and DJIA and S & P indexes, for 2-3 years now, yes ? Got me....But, at least, "Russell-type" depressed stocks are among MY specialties, as many have been given you herein recently, and many are rising for you....As I said, this S.T. trend should continue for a while, independently/regardless of how/when the extended stocks correct.... 6) we know they have no 'sexiness', but you may want to consider buying a L.T., ITM call position, where suitable, on a Utility stock given you herein, on pullbacks, in your properly diversified portfolio....As taught you, their Options tend to be 'cheaper', meaning, we need only a small % move in their stocks, to create large % Gains, when correct....with close stops below recent lows, as always, anyway....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC tried to do a negative story on our "WAC", Tuesday, 9 am, reporting the co. warning of future less-good earnings, etc., and, of course, the stock forms a S.T. bottom, and bounces nicely, dig ? the pattern never changes ....as I am first/only to say, some of the "Apparel" stocks are interesting down here.... 2) CNBC's David Faber, Tues., 12:55 pm, speaking of "CMRC" stock (and similar ones, parabolic ex-IPO's), having their "lock-up period" expiring ahead, where, possibly, millions of shares might be sold, coming onto the market, by lucky early holders, helping form a top in Internet stocks ahead ? Hey, it is rare anything he says is directly helpful, so, thanks, guy....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) amazing....MER, Tues., comes out with an anti-Airline-stock bearish recommendation, citing, "lower Y2K travel volume...." and/but, of course, those stocks did NOT fall, as they are/were already in stage 1, S.T., yes ? the pattern never changes....we win more often, they are wrong more often.... 2) L.A. TImes 12/20, front-page, "Cam Data's (CADA) deal with NCR rings true with shareholders", another example of a stock I specifically gave out herein near its "PSYCLE sm" base lows, when NO one even remotely liked it, as usual, being finally recommended by the Media, only AFTER it has risen a ton, in this case, from $ 3. or so, to $ 24+ already, dig ? the pattern never changes.... 3) L.A. Times, front-page, 12/25: "The Unstoppable Economy", mentioning also how over-cautious all econosists were from 1989, and how many areas have been "blasting past limits that the experts said could not be breached, and continuing to grow despite the nation's refusal to adopt major growth-policy prescriptions....the 1990's offer a cautionary lesson about the unlikelihood of getting it right when it comes to predicting the U.S. economy." Remember, we have Oil prices doubled, and interest rates are up about 2 % since Fall 1998....But they offered no predictions from here forward, and this article itself may help point to a potential S.T. top in economic growth (as I am expecting), and they wrote, "people today would probably be $ 50,000 to $ 100,000 in debt, but they'd be super-confident and they'd (still) be out spending (now)...." Famous last words ?
4) L.A. Times 12/27 predictions for the next decade: a big rise in spending for 'Security' and systems (I gave you "WHC" and "Priority One" herein), an even bigger rise in Biotechnology (but I say their stocks, many of which I gave you herein, quite a while ago when most everyone else hated them, are mostly already way too high), further 'aging of the population' (well, duh....but, remember, they also all loved those supposedly 'aging beneficiary companies' stocks last decade, and the Hospital and HMO stocks fell big, many all the way back down, after rising big early on....and you know, I have liked depressed stocks in that I.G., all this year, mostly successfully, given you herein)....their prediction is for best beneficiaries being the stocks of Financial Services industry companies (as you know, I have been pretty good for you, long and short, in those, over the years, herein).... 5) under the L.A. Times' "Things we won't miss about the 90's", they listed: "undignified brokerage ads", "meaningless dividend yields", "constant worry that inflation, or an economic bust, is just around the corner", "gold as a safe haven" (gold, on 1/1/90 was $ 407., today, around $ 280.), "famous, lying investment clubs", "brokers who kept uselful information from their clients" (I like that one), and, "the (notion of a) rigged (bid-ask, spread-wise) NASDAQ market"....Of course, my "PSYCLE sm" would suggest, that their smugness about these few itmes, means that more than one of these items will 'come back' to bite people, dig ? just something to consider, sentiment-wise, yes ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, Money Managers:1) I am trying to find the exact date that Arch (astrology) Crawford first said, and now says, "Apocalypse Now....the worst crash of this century has begun ! Never have we observed combination after deadly combination culminating one after another in a truly apocalyptic sequence...." But he gives no details after that 'marketing only' shock/pitch headline....Oy....Now, he has had a few great major calls, and a bunch of other wrong ones, in last two+ decades, but I also see, as I first predicted herein early in 1999, the beginnings of reversals of mutli-year uptrends in R.E., Techs stocks, our economy, etc., coming.... 2) a surprisingly scentient comment from John Bolinger, CNBC, Tues., 12:50 pm, citing a passage from Adam Smith's "The Money Game" book, from 1968 (?) Anyway, at that time, as the "-onics" and "techs" and "computer leasing" and "computer time sharing" stocks, were parabolic (JUST AS THE TECHS/SEMIS/INTERNETS ARE NOW), all the 'experts' back then were saying that those exact industries still had 'unlimited upside potential', and even though they had already rocketed way beyond beyond, they predicted "untold riches forward" from late stage 3/early stage 4 formations -- JUST LIKE WE HAVE THEM SAYING NOW, dig ? ....3) similarly, an old-line money mgr. whom I do like, John Neff (ex-Vanguard Windsor Fund, check out its V.L.T. record), sees extreme caution from here, as I do, citing some parallels, in his opinion, with the emerging top before the 1973-74 period (if I have to tell you what happened during those years, we will have a serious problem) ....thanks, Johns....
4) Wed., 7:30 am, analyst from Prudential came out with a new $ 1,000. price target on "QCOM", a Q, S, put loss for us recently....if so, this would be 200 times PE for estimated 2001 earnings, if reached at all....shocking, and, noting he never said anything even remotely about protection, or of having at least a trailing stop, or diversification, etc., this is pretty irresponsible here....but, of course, he was bullish from $ 150-200., and it already hit over $ 725....This sounds similar to when another analyst went nutso-bullish on AOL, very publically, and it rose big for just a few months, to April '99, then tanked, and came almost all the way back down, remember ? Can't these anylsts find any depressed, reasonably-priced stocks here ? there are hundreds of them around....but, oh, yeah, I forgot: it is not in their nature to ever recommend anything in stage 1, after drops....Meanwhile, another analyst raised his target on "DCLK" to $ 300. (already $ 253, up from $ 81. in Aug., at its expected 200 DMA support)....its MV is now over $ 10 Bill., vs. max. est. Y2K sales of only $ 300 MM, and expected continued LOSSES for the Y2K....lookout.... 5) CNBC, Wed., 7:15 am, reported that in the two largest Hedge Funds around, George Soros' Quantum Fund is up 'only' + 22 % in 1999, and Julian Robertson's Tiger Fund, is actually down - 9 % so far in 1999....I first pointed this out to you herein, a while ago....I am unsure what this means, except that 'size, and fame', by "PSYCLE sm" nature, can hinder performance at some point....and, my point (re-read my 'Mastering Psychology' booklet), that 'just because some entity is 'big/famous/known/reported widely', does not automatically always translate into the 'best' place for one's growth/spec. money....but, you already knew that, yes ? ....6) Laszlo Biryini, on CNBC, Wed., 8:40 am, sees "amazing similarities" between the Techs stocks up here, and 1977, for some reason I cannot begin to fathom....After being bearish for a long time previous (and not so correct at that), he is acknowledged as being fairly-correctly straight-bullish since 1991, and had a 12,000 target for 1999 9everybody else did, also), and has a 14,000 target for DJIA by end of year 2000, with a 'buy any dips', on stocks like, LU, AOL, EDS, etc. Again, with no warnings whatsoever, no protection comments, etc. We shall see....
7) L.A. Times article, 12/25, about how wrong most forecasters were about the 1990's, pointed out, that, for instance, the most prized/recommended stocks at Dow 2,750 back then, were MCD, MO, EK, "because they would benefit from the easing of trade barriers worldwide"....Hmmmm....get it ? While the S & P rose + 300 %, those stocks UNDER-performed....and, of course, NO one foresaw the rise of the Internet, Online trading, etc. And, as I specifically mentioned back then, when I was on TV, etc., the 'experts' were all warning that 'Japan' would hurt our economy, ruin our/the computer business, etc., and 'take over the world', remember ? They even said U.S. companies were not as suited as Asian companies at the Computer biz, remember ? Gee, how have CPQ, DELL, SUNW, ORCL, etc., done....They also said that Defense companies' stocks would decline, due to the end of the Cold War, remember ? While many aero/def. layoffs did occur first half of the decade, their 'stock prices' rose....And, of course, partly because they were wrong on that 'fundamental' item, the 'experts' never foresaw the rise in many R.E. prices from their mid-decade lows (which I predicted, but no one, as usualk, would listen to me, or let me help tons of nice people) Nor did they predict the obvious mass of Bank mergers during the past decade....And, they said that "the derivatives time bomb" would lead to bear markets (now, of course, they are saying that the 'daytraders' will do that job)....And, of course, right now, they are all saying that the Tech./Internet sectors are 'immune from the laws of supply and demand'....So, ignoring, or going contrary to, most Media/Industry messages, still worked back then, and will likely continue to do so, the vast majority of the time/examples.... 8) and, now, Wed., only after big decline from where they loved it, and other Food stocks, B-firms lowered their estimates on "HSY", a stock I gave herein as a put near its 1998 high, then recently had a Q, S, loss longside in....the pattern never changes....
e) more general items proving why one should ignore 95 %
of everything else out there: 1) as I was first/only to point out recently, more New Year bashes are being cancelled....I am unsure what this means, besides the "hubris and greed angle"....I must admit, I am considering spending New Year's eve at my local Yoga center (no, I am not a weirdo, it's just a nice, relaxed, loving, pleasant, safe place, dig ? I only wish you a fraction of the comfort and peace I feel when I am there).... 2) something I bet neither of us knew: did you know, according to the L.A. Times, 12/26, that in 1899 (that's 100 years ago), there was a serious, multi-year legal challenge to/against the Tobacco industry, as well ? it was illegal to sell cigarettes in 14 states back then, according to the Supreme Court....yet, at the same time, narcotics such as morphine, opium, cocaine, and heroin, were actually legally sold over-the-counter , along with chewing tobacco (all recommended by health authorities back then), through apothecaries, etc....while 'lotteries' were illegal....interesting, huh ....3) L.A. Times, 12/26, front-page article/chart showed "consumption of beer, wine, and liquor is down - 21% to -36 % over the last decade....there has been a cultural change regarding how people look at alcohol...." Surprising, huh....Of course, with no editorial comment here, I say, that a 'baby-boomer-echo' growth in drinking-age youths is coming right around the corner, so, while this article is really negative on the stock-prices of companies in those industries (stage 7, right ?), it probably heralds the 'beginning of the end' of that previous trend, dig ? BTW, just FYI, guess which state has the highest per-capita consumption of alcohol in the USA ? Washington, DC, # 1 by a long shot (pun intended)....that figures (and explains a lot, ay ?)....while, California is almost last/lowest, # 47....
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
puts ASPT (53+ to 32) for Q 222% Gain....1/2 pos. stock TXB (3++ to 7++) for 100% G....stock BDE (2 9/16 to 4 3/8) for VVVQ 60% G....bal. stock HWS (2 to 4) for Q 90 % G....bal. puts NEON (58+ to 46) for Q 85% G....puts MND/A (24+ to 21+) for Q 55% G....bal. calls TSN (15 to 18 to 16) for L.T. small % G....
and/but, longs, PCLN, ESOL, GPT, WYN, CPU, HOC, BL, HSY, IM ?, and, puts, JNPR, NBR, BRCD, KSU, ASDV, FLEX, for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....most all are "Semis/Compu./Tech." stocks....but still been too many of them lately.... usually quite rare (but not lately)....I also wish I could be more clear about these '?' questionable sales lately....it just happens that way at times....again, "cutting for real small losses" when necessary, which never hurts much....in fact, they can actually help your 'psyche' over time, by keeping larger losses away, yes ? remember, more than a few of these "?" sales, are likely to revalidate, driving us crazy, regardless....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
1/2 pos. AVL @ 7++, CVD @ 9+, FAF @ 12+, 1/2 pos. FC @ 7, 1/2 pos. FE @ 22+, MCH @ 18+, 1/2 pos. OMX @ 5 1/4, SUN @ 23+, WMI. @ 14+, ZQK @ 14+, (am still finding more, see the patterns ?)
"Repeats": ABX @ 17+, ACL @ 16 1/4, AIN @ 14 1/8, BAMM @ 8, BDY @ 12-, BEV @ 3++, BGO @ 9/16, BKS @ 21, BLC @ 18+, BUR @ 3 9/16, CHB @ 8-, CRRS @ 1 11/16, DAL @ 48 1/8, DIR @ 13+ ?, DROOY @ 1 9/16, DTE @ 31+, ECO @ 1 5/16, FLE @ 19+, FLS @ 16-, GHV @ 1 15/16, GLB @ 12 1/8, GV @ 5/16, HLT @ 8++, HUM @ 7-, JBM @ 2 9/16, LDW @ 6+, LWN @ 7/16, LYO @ 11+, MAH @ 9++, MAT @ 12.06, MCK @ 20+, MHR @ 2 7/16, MSN @ 9/16, NHI. @ 14+ ?, NHR @ 8.06, OCN @ 5++, ODP @ 10, RDRT @ 3 7/8, RDL @ 3-, RPD @ 2 9/16, SAMC @ 5++, SEI. @ 6+, TGI. @ 23+, TPS @ 0.93, TRL @ 6.06, TVX @ 13/16, TXM @ 2 7/16, UAM @ 17++, UNA @ 12+, USL @ 6++, VCR @ 1 11/16, WAB @ 16++, WCC @ 6++, 1/2 pos. WDC @ 3 9/16, WLV @ 13+, WSO @ 10+, "DJ. Trans. Avg." @ 283...."buy (only) low", right ?
still, nice, LONG lists for you lately, yes ? as usual, you have had several
opportunities to have bought many of these, as they have often pulled back to buy
levels, a few times, over time....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, BMC, MSX, TXU, MO, SRS, TEI, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) BBSW @ 122+, EXDS @ 88, LSCC @ 50, MCHP @ 70-, MCRL @ 58-, MERQ @ 105-,
"Repeats": CNXT @ 73, CXY @ 20+, HWP @ 116+, IMN @ 34, MGG @ 50, MGM @ 24+, NLCS @ 39+, PAYX @ 43-, PSIX @ 68+, SMTC @ 54, VTSS @ 53+, VYTL @ 55+....
and/but, took, ADVS, TIF, QGENF, CLRS, AUD, HNCS, SILK, GS, BWAY, PUMA, ORBK, PLCM, LEH, CY, INTU, MRVC, IPI, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here) ....this cleans up the list in section (7) more, for you....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", DOR, SCIO, MSX, FJ, CAN, NCS, ARI., WNC, ACK, DGV, WAC, MAY, STK, LTV, SOI, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, PRSF, BRYO, CTV, MACR, SANM, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
plenty of winners for you: LWN 7/8 up 1/2, KRY 1 3/4 up 1 nice, CRRS 2 1/8 up 1/2, LB 2 3/8 up 5/8, MHR 2 7/8 up 1/2, BEV 4 5/8 up 1, BDE 4 5/8 up 3/4 (S), IMG 9 1/4 up 1 5/8, LPX 14 5/8 up 2, AAS 15 1/2 up 1 5/8, BUR 4 up 1/2, CVD 11 1/8 up 2, LYO 12 7/8 up 1 5/8, SEI. 6 3/4 up 5/8, WCC 8 1/2 up 1 1/8, MAH 10 3/4 up 1 1/4, WMI. 17 1/8 up 2 3/4, BDY 14 5/8 up 1 1/4,
more: FC 7 5/8 up 5/8, ACL 17 1/8 up 1 1/8, MCK 23 1/8 up 2 3/8, EC 18 5/8 up 1 5/8, ARJ 19 1/8 up 1 5/8, UAM 19 1/8 up 1 5/8, MCH 20 3/8 up 1 5/8, AKS 18 3/4 up 1 1/2, HLT 9 1/2 up 5/8, FOE 22 1/4 up 1 1/4, FLE 20 3/8 up 1, DDS 20 3/4 up 1, ODP 11 1/8, DCN 30 1/4 up 1, DAL 51 1/8 up 2 1/4, DTE 32 1/4, BS 8 1/2, TEN 9 3/8, PMC 8 3/4, BD 9, FE 23, HUM 8, TXB 7 3/8 (S), MHX 17, LAF 27 3/8, SUN 24 1/4, FLS 17 1/8, TXB 7 5/8, AIN 15 1/8, GLB 13, "the DJ. Trans. index" 297+, DJ. Util. Avg., higher, since last time here....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: USL 8 1/2 up 2, HRC 5 5/8 up 7/8, TOK 4 up 5/8, PWN 8 1/2 up 3/4, CHB 8 5/8 up 3/4, BBC 8 7/8 up 1, DIR 13 1/2, 14 1/2, 13 3/4, PZB 22 up 1 1/2, HOT 23 3/8 up 1 3/8, BGP 15 1/2 up 3/4, URI. -2, PIR 6 1/2, WLV 13 7/8, IRSN 1 7/8, MAT 13 1/8, SYNX 3 1/8, DLX, RPD, TSN, PRD 18 7/8 up 7/8, MUEI. 11 3/4 up 1, NHR 8, WDC, TPS, ZMAX, BAMM 8 1/2 up 1/2, JBOH, BKS, RDRT, GHV, ALB, MCH 19 1/2, SAMC, UVA, UNA, TSN, FIX....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) NHI. 14 3/4 dn 2 1/2, JBOH 7 5/8, 8 1/4, TRL 6, WAB, TGI., GHV, CPU, HRC, HOC, BUR, FIX 7 1/2, 6 7/8, VCR, ALB, IM, DTE, FE, DIR, JBM, NHP, CHB, UVA....again, longside not too sexy....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
BBSW -21, LSCC -5, CNXT -6 1/2, MERQ -5, MCHP -4, VYTL -3 1/2, SMTC -3, EXDS -3, PAYX -3, ASPT -5, +2 (S), PSIX +4, -7, MCHP -3, LEH -3, LSI. -2 1/2, TGNT -2, MGM -2, KSU -1, MND/A (S), lower since last NL....and, NYF 24 5/8 (S), lower still....and, NLCS, approached its 200 DMA....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (IMG, AAS, HUM, GHV)
Prec. Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, HM, ABX, PDG, BGO, ECO, longer-term, on pullbacks)
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
emerging groups ?: "Cap. Goods/Mfrs.", "Athletics/Apparel", "Housing-related", Gaming, Foods, Waste, and, "Funeral" stocks down the road ?
and, maybe, some depressed Y2K's, still: in no particular order, near lows only, with close stops only, these are more risky: (IAIC, SAA, ZMAX, ENCC, VXTR, PHXU), some others up big, already....
and, these REIT's, most also with real big potential Dividends ? (NHR, GLB, NHI., NNN, DDR, FCH, LTC, PDQ, CEI., GTA, ARI., JDN, KRC, ESA, AER, ALF, CBG, PAG, etc.)
"Transportaion" (LUV, MAG, WAB, DPH, F., DAL, TEN, R., may still need work)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, add, CRRS, RDRT, LAF, TXM, HLT, MHR, QTRN, MCH, to, EC, STS, DROOY, WDC, AAS, TVX, FOE, LWN, AIN, LMM, MAT, JOB, PIR, BWL/A, RDL, PMC, SYNX, HIV, MSN, BUR, CCC, SAMC, XCL, OCN, WAB, (note, still more R.E.-housing, utilities, and, comp. storage), to,
also, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh....add, MSPG, BOR, CBG, VDC, VX, CAN, AVL, TSK, DTE, NSP, LEN, WAC, NCE, ZQK, HAZ, TSA, DSS, ACK, ASH, NCI, SHW, STK, SUN, TWR, to, WSO, DLX, F., BSX, FAF, URI, NCI, AVS, FE, UAM, RT, FLE, AMI, ALR, MHR, TMD, TWA, NCS, LTV, DFS, LYO, BDE, DOR, DAY, HLT, AW, GSR, ACL, TOY, WCC, BAMM, CTX, KRC, MIR, VFC, FHS, JBM, GLG, MAH, ADM, IM, GPT, BTR, BUR, DCN, JWN, TSP, WMI., JPR, TPN, MPO, MKC, NHR, CMX, SQM, BEV, MZ, TVX, MUEI, AIN, (and, maybe soon also, HRP, HCN, KPA, HPT), as more potential REIT "EVB's", and may base/bottom ahead....and, now, more "Aero./Def." stocks, like, maybe, LIT, LMT, LOR, RTN, MLM, soon ? I will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
note, these lists are growing....year-end-tax-selling bounces ahead ?
note, more Retails on "watch list", like, SKS, DDS, KM, PIR, S., DFS, CNS, TOY, GAP, MAY, some may need more work, technically, but likely to bottom....this list is growing as well....
The last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
For the last time: I also see more 'Insider' Buys after drops, in issues like, IT, SUG, MIR, ODP, HUM, CMH, AVS, OH, FLE, FCH, CVD, BUR, BBA, BEV, TXU, HMK, FIX, HRC, CRS, DAR, MMD, PLC, URI., USL, CFS, EAR, CMH, DOR, FAF, PMC, OPI., NHI., AFG, BBA, CCB, CNA, ENN, TSK, MAG, and many others of that ilk, lately.... interesting, how, as I taught you, even with significant Insider Buying, near lows, some of their patterns broke down....very unusual....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, YHOO, AIG, IMN, DS, LU, SLR, VSH, LSI, AMKR, BMCS, CNXT, ANAD, ISYS, EXDS, LSCC, LCOS, MCRL, MMPT, MCHP, SANM, SCNT, to, AFM, GTE, MHP, NWS, STM, UK, WSM, TBL, TSM, JBL, GNET, EMLX, CUBE, RNWK, RFMD, RATL, PSIX, VNWK, RFMD, MU, SEG, HWP, MGM, ASDV, CSGS, PRSF, TSCC, VYTL, BBSW, AFCI., APNT, VTSS, NLCS, NT, MERQ, TLB, RDC, MGG, PHTN, TFSM, XLNX, ALLR, PIOS, AEIS, ILN, KMG, AMCC, MSTR, CTS, BJ, CLRN, WLM, from recent past NL's,
**** new **** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Electronics- specialty instruments, Wines/Liquors/beverages, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media/publishing, Energy, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....
NEW: with caveats and disclaimers that I am not a tax expert, so contact your accountant, CNBC, finally, Tues., 8:46 am, mentioned a little legal trick I used to help clients for years....When/if one does have losses, which, if taken, might make other Gains in other stocks, 'tax-free-balanced', one cannot buy that same loser stock back for 31 days after sold (the 'wash sale' rule)....but, one CAN sort-of 'replace' that position sold, with the stock of another company with a similar chart pattern, in that same I.G., at that same time, like, say, a different Gold stock, or a similar Tech. stock....dig ? This keeps you in the game, raises/makes you/saves you money, and teaches you a valuable lesson....hope this helps....There are also some fancy legal ways to push big paper gains in one/this year, into the next year (sorry, but those strategies from me are worth a lot of actual money, so I cannot give them out herein....call me if need aid with that)....gee, if I just had a 'national column/forum', so I could help millions of nice people, and businesses....maybe some day....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....