1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) kudos to me again, as I called THE bottom in T-bonds, Nov., herein, around 4 1/4 %, and recently, up to 5 1/4 % already....but now up against resistance, so do not expect tons higher rates in it.... 2) note how, as expected, many Oil Service stocks have risen to their still-falling 200 DMA, you know what that likely means, ahead.... 3) and, as unfortunately, the NYSE was playing "happy days are here again" on the floor, and Saturday's front-front-page headline L.A.T. was, "things are looking up economically", along with rellaied-stocks up against normal probable resistance, lends some caution and puttability to extended stocks across the board, yes ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) more proof of the value of my "PSYCLE sm", as recent L.A.T. headline, "Latin Stock Markets Unscathed by Turmoil in Argentina....shares in Brazil, Chile, Mexico higher....major currencies rise....", pointing out (as I was, as usual, the first/only to give out that area's Telecom stocks as buys herein right from lows, yes ?), that generally disseminated supposed bad news fundamentals, do not automatically translate to lower stock prices of EVB or basing stocks....glad to have helped teach this to so many people.... 2) more proof of my "PSYCLE sm", Fri., when CNBC reporter misleadingly/incorrectly tried to pan our AYE, saying, "AYE stock is getting hammered, down 1 1/2 to 34 1/2 today, as the co. cited many bad fundamentals within the energy industry, etc." - interesting, since, a) I rec'd. it at 33+ and it si UP since then, and, b) AYE closed Fri. at 35 1/2, hardly down at all, dig ? God, they (CNBC reporters) stink generally....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) with regards to the (IMHO overvalued) restaurant and sandwich places stocks, Fri., big articles and CNBC stuff lately, about how, supposedly, "people's tastes have shifted in recent years, away from burgers and hot fast food, to sandwiches and cold fast food" - of course, as usual, this info. comes only after the formewr stocks fell (not predicted by others) and the latter have already risen a lot (ditto), and, just as I reported on (to deaf ears as usual, dgms) in the early 1980's, hugely-funded-and-should-have-been-way-more-knowledgeable Detroit missed the whole rise of the Japanese carmakers, one wonders how MCD/WEN/EAT/CKR, etc., missed this easily discrernable trend....now, of course, if these companies shift their resources, late, as usual, what effect it will have on the sandwich maker stocks, dig ? I have already inferred the answer, from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v., you know, yes ? the question, as usual, is, will investors take advantage or let another semi-EZ opportunity slip away for no logical reason ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) in a new harrowing development, UBS Warburg b-firm, ann. they will - get this - fine their brokers 200 % of their comm. done, when/if 'flipping' IPO's quickly after offering tand garnering GAINS (not losses, mind you, Gains), to their valued clients ! I gotta find out more about this 'beyond beyond' new policy by them.....let me get this straight: brokers take tons of crap from everyone at once, cannot win most of the time, and now theyu are punishing them for getting their cliens QG's in IPO's ? gotta be smething the news story missed.....will get back to you when I know....actually, this smacks of the continual trend by firms towards overprotecting themselves, against even their brokers.....amazing, huh....
e) more general, political, misreported items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better,
and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains, 4 more Longs (plus several 'balances'), and, 1 more Puts:
all calls FCEL (13+ to 19-) for VVQ 175% Gain....bal. puts ATRX (29- to 20+) for Q 135% G....bal. stock LOR (1 3/8 to 3.) for 100 % G....all puts SMTC (44 to 35) for Q 90% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. AVGN (9+ to 12) for Q 55% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. SBGI (7+ to 9+) for Q 55% G....1/2 of remaining calls FMC (48+ to 60) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. calls DVN (33 to 39++) for VQ 80% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. ACPW (5 to 7+) for Q 70% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. KERX (5.1 to 8.2) for Q 100% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. NR, XOMA, TWAV, CLRS, CASY, CSGS, PGO, DVN, SWC, ?, all for quick Big % Gains, of course....
and/but, longs, none, still, and, puts, MMM, MAA, UDR no ?, PFGC, BLL, VCI. ?, WBSN, AMG !?, COST, DBD, DL no, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/3 pos. GLW @ 8 3/8, 1/3 pos. CIEN ?,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions):
1/3 pos. AFL @ 24+ eh, 1/3 pos. BTY @ 35, 1/3 pos. PACW @ 0.40+, 1/3 pos. PLUG @ 7+, 1/3 pos. PBCT @ 21, 1/3 pos. SIEB @ 3.85, 1/2 pos. PSEM @ 13.05, 1/3 pos. GSK @ 49, 1/3 pos. LU @ 6, 1/3 pos. BDAL @ 14, 1/3 pos. TLCP @ 12-, 1/2 pos. ACTU @ 5, 1/2 pos. AMCC @ 10-, 1/2 pos. SLR @ 10., 1/2 pos. TFS @ 14+, 1/2 pos. REP @ 14, ALL @ 31+, BOY @ 7+, 1/2 pos. MC @ 11++, 1/3 pos. NXY @ 19--, 1/3 pos. UFI. @ 6 1/2, 1/2 pos. CTS @ 14 1/2, 1/2 pos. MCD @ 25+, 1/3 pos. NEM @ 19, 1/2 pos. ELON @ 12.66, 1/3 pos. SLGLF @ 0.09, F. @ 15+, 1/2 pos. FCEL @ 13+, MFDE @ 2 3/8, 1/2 pos. PLUG @ 7.57, ACLA @ 4.6, 1/3 pos. RT @ 11, 1/2 pos. SPOT @ 20+, 1/2 pos. NNDS @ 20-, 1/2 pos. VLCCF @ 15+, 1/2 pos. BLS @ 37+, 1/2 pos. SRP @ 14, ACPW @ 5.15, 1/2 pos. TEO @ 5 3/4, 1/2 pos. FON @ 19-, TCC @ 9+, VRA @ 1.2, UAL @ 12+ eh.... "buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, ARNA, CALP, BSTE, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
I try
to give them alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones):
1/2 pos. MAN @ 34+ ?, 1/2 pos. APD @ 47+, KSS @ 71+, 1/3 pos. IDPH @ 71-, 1/3 pos. TYC @ 59 ?, the DJ. Trans. Avg. @ 2660, 1/2 pos. FDO @ , 1/2 pos. CSTR @ , 1/2 pos. MSFT @ , 1/3 pos. NPSP ?, CLX @ , 1/2 pos. ILEX ?, 1/2 pos. MMM @ 120+,
1/2 pos. GENZ @ 60+, 1/2 pos. TECD @ 45, 1/3 pos. PGR @ 151-, 1/3 pos. PSA @ 34+ no ?, 1/3 pos. VFC @ 40, 1/3 pos. SYMC @ 69+, 1/2 pos. JCI. @ 81+, 1/3 pos. GSPT @ 20+, 1/2 pos. IP @ 40+, 1/2 pos. THC @ 60, ICBC @ 24+, CBRL @ 30, 1/2 pos. CBH @ ,
"Repeats": ACV @ 45+, ACE @ 39++, 1/2 pos. COST no ?, BLL no, SFG @ 48, 1/2 pos. VCI. @ 36, 1/2 pos. RCI. @ 32, DL @ 18+, LIZ @ 51, SKYF @ 20+, 1/2 pos. IBC @ 26-, 1/2 pos. IFF @ 31+, 1/2 pos. FTN @ 36++, 1/2 pos. ITT @ 51+, EC @ 28, UB @ 38 eh, CFBX @ 26, 1/2 pos. GCI. @ 69++, ASBC @ 35++, TRPS @ 20+, 1/2 pos. ICBC @ 24+, UDR @ 14+, ACV no ?, MMC @ 110-, ACE @ 40, SYK @ 59,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, UNP ?, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in
sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", GX, FPL, MWL, PKD, FLA, SRR, BRZZ, RAD, RIG, VLO, AES, NUAN, ATML, COHR, ONIS, MNY, CNA, TM, LNT, BSTE, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, AGM, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
many more big winners for you, you're welcome:
FCEL 18.90 up 3.69 nice (S), ACPW 7.24 up 1.58, CTHR 1.46 up 0.30, ELON 15.30 up 2.64, PLUG 8.77 up 1.20, LOR 3 1/8 up 3/4 (S), ACTU 5.54 up 0.60, AMCC 11.59 up 1.71, RIGL 5.35 up 1.05, SLR 10.77 up 0.97, TFS 16.40 up 2.25, BDAL 16.83 up 2.63, TERN 8.87 up 1.06, HBIO 10.15 up 1.15, ZIXI. 5.69 up 0.34, KERX 8.25 up 0.53 (sos), MTZ 6.55 up 0.65 (sos), XOMA 10.35 up 1.12 (sos), FSII. 9.42 up 0.65, PSEM 14.05 up 1.10, SCS 14.71 up 1, TSS 21.50 up 1.15, BTY 37.10 up 2, GLW 9.18 up 0.83, REP 14.43 up 0.60, PEG 42.58 up 1.23, STLD 12.00 up 0.75, LU 6.35 up 0.35, AWE 14.63 up 0.96, CSGS 42.83 up 1 (sos), NXY 20 up 1, OLOG 18.53, AYE 36.27, 34.30, 36.38, TCC 11.73 (sos), RRC 4.76, PHI. 8.31, DPL 24.43, VVTV 19.7 up 1.1 (sos), VLCCF 16.67 up 1, SWC 19.08 (sos), DVN 39.95 up 1 (sos), SPOT 23 up 1, MC 12.70 up 0.40, NR 8.60 up 0.30 (sos), PGO 7.97 up 0.30 (sos), SLR 11.36 up 0.58, VSAT 16 1/4, GSB 26 1/4, the DJUA 297+ up 3+, PRM 4 1/4 (sos), CLRS 6.45, up/higher since last NL here....also note how, HLTH was another 'fobd', but now 7.15, proving again, the value of patience and diversification and staying with more and more of my longs always....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and/or more Bounces after pullbacks:
ALL 33.95 up 2, FAF 18.59 up 0.71 ctbo, RIGL 4.65, CEI. 18.23 up 0.70 ctbo, SLR pb, SIEB 3.98 bopb, TEO 6.58, PLUG 7.75 (B), 8.10, RIGL 4.43, 5.09, OLOG, CLTK 12.08, 13.83, NNDS 20. dn, CPST 5.22, 4.17, 5.28, CVAS 6.16, 6.77, MCD 26.90 up 1, RT 11. (B), GSK (B) 49, HMT 9.60 ctbo, BOY 8.24, 7.75, NXY 19.44, AVGN 11.05, 12.00, MICC 12.17 up 0.77, AOL 33.3 up 1., CLRS 6.07, ACTU 5.25, PLUG 8.50, ZIXI. 4.9, UFI. 7.15, TFS 15.75, F. 16.23 up, TERN 8.25, AETH 9.22 up, IFC 18.30 up....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and, MANU, MONE, SAPE, CALP, RRC, DUK, HP, PBR, PGO, TCP, and many Oil Svc. stocks, approached their 200 DMA's, study charts to learn pattern....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
this list growing, dig ? UHS, TG, PHI. ?, LNUX, FON ?, HMT, AYE, PACW 0.42 (B), FSII, ABX, SLGLF, KEYN, VRSN, SCS, KFY, SWC, DSS, VVTV, RT 10.85, CHRS, FMC 57.80, 63.16, TWAV, NR, AETH, CHINA, UAL, NXY, AFL 24, TIE 3.85 dn, and most all Techs and rallied stocks, and those listed in sec. (3) last time above, must follow-through up further.... above their bases and resistance highs of this week....and/or, above their previously-broken-below-before-sept. 11th-levels....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
MMM -2 1/2, SLM -2, RMD -1 5/8, DL -1 3/8, IDPH -2 1/2, TRPS -2, APD -1, ICBC -1, FTN, IBC, EC, the DJTA -48, down/further since last NL here....while, SMTC approached 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
Utilities, Entertainment/Leisure, Retail/Apparel, Cable, Brokers, Foreign depr. stocks - like Japan, Agriculture-oriented, Golds, Telecom, Steel, Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative Energy, Ind. Groups...and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds, at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note,
obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many
others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note,
re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this
NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read
sec. (1) above), added these:
KME ?, PB, PWR, TE, U., NU, MIPS, SCMR, VIGN ?, KM ?, FDRY, WGRD ?, ENWY, OCPI, GEMP, BCON, NEWP ?, MDCC, DIGL, EPNY, CIEN, KME ?, KCS ?, KEI. ?, HIT ?, to, ABMD, AMCC, AMRI, COHR, HYDL, UCFC, STOR, RIGL, RNWK, RMBS, PWER, SCAI, WHES ?, BRZZ, ATML, PLXS ?, CPQ, GMH, PKD, REP, TFS, PNW, MWL, ALS, FLA, TEX, to, TERN, ACTU, ANEN, BDAL, ELON, DCNT, TLCP, STLW, UCFC, TRMB, GSK, XTO opb, BOY, MC, MTP ny, NXY, UFI, RMBS opbo, CMVT opbo, AVNX opbo, JDSU obpbo, ONIS ?, GSPN, HAL, AVNX, WAG, CTS, EX, ALL eh, REP, TSS, NGEN, NUAN, MFDE, HYSQ, CEI, SLR, UHS ?, ZIXI, TFS, CNH, MCD, VRSN,
as EVB's or bases....
and, some Energy/Alt./Svcs.: PGO opbo, BR opbo, RRC, ACPW, VLCCF, PLUG, WR ?, CPST, OLOG, etc.
some Biotechs and health-relateds: ACLA, UTHR, HBIO, BCGI, SGP, SCOR, OSTE, DMN, SSK, SGEN, GSK, (AVGN already up),
among Telecom-Net-Satellite-Commun.-orienteds: PACW, T, TIE, WFII, GLW, AWE, TLCP, ELON, LU, AOL, TEO, NNDS, SPOT, VSAT, BLS, MICC, GX, BTY, KEYN,
retail/apparel/shoes: CTHR, CHRS, GPS,
Utils.: PEG, SRE, (others are already up),
precious metals: SLGLF, NEM, and, STLD, STLW, RT, steels,
financial-orienteds: SNV, GSB, CCR, PVN, ALL, FAF, TSS, AFL, MNY, CNA,
and, some more Foreign Telecoms, and more, soon ?
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* added, EDS, FDO, GTK, NBR, MMM, PH, UST, WWY, UPC, KIM, STZ, CLX, CDWC, HOTT ?, ARXX, CSTR, DRIV, ILEX, INTL, NPSP, to CBH, MAN, MYL, MGA, LEG, KSS, MTH, UNP, ATVI, CBRL, EFTD, MSFT, MNTR ?, KSHS, UOPX, INTU ?, TYC ?, to, JCI, VFC, GENZ, SYMC, TECD, PGR ?, ADRX, AMGN, IDPH, ZRAN, EC, LIZ, PCL ?, THC, SFG, RCI, MMC, XL ?, AN ?, APOL ?, TRPS, SMTC, ICBC, COST no ?, DL, BAC, IFF, PSA no ?, ACV, IBC, ITT, GCI, FBC, IMCL ?, FTN, STW ?, SKYF, UDR ?, BCS, RWT, TOO, APPB no ?, MATR, NHP, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: added, extended Building/Residential/Commerical-relateds, Semiconductor-relateds, and maybe Chem. soon, to,
Extended: Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Peripherals, Security....Toys/Leisure, railroad/trucking, restaurants, Pollution-related, Aero./Def., Funeral, "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Insur. Brokers/Banks/Mtg./Loans, Homebuilders/ Construction/Electrical, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES