1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions: (issues moving since last time, following-up, still long, unless otherwise noted):
6) other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent highs Only, L.T., in-the-money puts Only, Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
Welcome....Again, I am "beginning" my new newsletter (NL), and educational services, as a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas for the benefit of the many people who are also coming over from it's Previous incarnation, to provide Them with a "seamless" transition, "on the fly", so to speak....and Also, to show YOU, as NEW subcribers, all the Recently/past suggested ideas, which I shared with my followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn. Remember, all my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's....and, eventually, all my "essays".
Many and sundry bounces occured off last week's lows: first, in some previously "put" issues which had approached previous S.T. support (and/or near their H & S necklines, and/or near their 200 day MA's), a bunch of which should have been SOLD (see recent past section (3) Puts sales and below), and second, among some oversold Techs, as expected....again, what to LEARN, is to rise above the "average person's" fear-near-short-term-lows, and BUY, long, at least "something" in depressed areas, where those stocks are near bases/support, (provided those bases are intact, and those stocks are not still hitting new lows) and "the 95 %" are scared, right ? with close stops, diversified, one really has lower risk doing it this way....it SUPPOSED to be somewhat uncomfortable/scary to do this at extremes, yes ? that's why so few people buy near lows, and/or buy Puts near highs.
Anyway, as I said last time here, after some bounces from here, there would still be more puttables....so I added more, in section (3) below....also note, how, now, AFTER many short-term (S.T.) drops, from March/April, only last week, the Media all-of-a-sudden "discovered" a "potential" decline---late, as usual....Where were they when my "PSYCLE sm" gave out all those tops, in March/April ? This is as I teach in my "essays", how "the Media", and "the 95 %", tend to only "discover/realize" things, AFTER they have already occured to an extent, right ? They then "report" "old items", as supposed "new news", but by the time they report it, it has already occured for many stocks....Note, we continue to "buy" more Puts regardless, when those specific stocks exhibit toppy behavior chart patterns. Remember, we are NOT acting on "external" stuff, like, foreign or domestic news/financials, indexes, Media messages---we are acting, to try to take advantage of long-existing, repeating paterns, of chart, ind. group, media, and human behaviors, adding/using IGR where applicable....
Also remember/learn, that "PSYCLE sm" traders/investors, do NOT blindly buy "good companies near their L.T. highs"....As I have hopefully proven in the last decade-plus, one does better, buying stocks BEFORE they rise (and buying Puts sometimes, which almost no one does)....Now, some S.T. "hook-top" chart formations (read my "essay/booklet" on "Exploiting Puts, the Psycle Way") can sometimes become longer, rolling tops, and so I tend to remove/cut those issues from my potential Puts lists, the moment they start back up, aborting their S.T. top patterns, because those are more likely to become double-tops, or longer-tops ---and why hold puts an extra month or two or three longer, during their topping process, when we can choose better stocks to exploit, Now, instead ?
Again, "PSYCLE sm" traders are NOT overnite/day traders, nor 'scalpers' ....our general holding period with successes, is still at least several weeks, or a few months, so you do NOT want to be watching/hanging on every little move in "the averages", nor every "story" reported, which is, again, one reason why we Rarely watch the indexes....NO emotion, and No "news", into our brain....
So, while I am definitely trying to pick up some depressed bargains long, and catch some extended top formations in puts, here, I am still recommending holding above-avg. cash balances with good-sized accounts. Do NOT become scared/ emotional here, nor "try to guess bottoms on issues which are still making new lows". Learn to let the decliners bottom, base, become "EVB's", or reach support levels, First ...and, as for Puts, selling those which fall towards their 200 DMA's, or below, for quick, nice % gains-- see section (3) below-- and look to buy more Puts, on further rallies towards highs, on issues herein which still show extended/umbrella top patterns....Important: also realize, that this whole "Asian thing", should play out, as all previous "crises" have, like, Japan, Mexico, Canada, Silicon Valley, Europe/Berlin Wall, Russia, Middle East, etc., have/did, in recent past years, each of those providing us with nice depressed long buys, into the "scary news", near their lows, dig ? The pattern/sequence is most always the Same, each "crisis"....learn it....Eliminating our emotional reactions, properly Diversifying, with stops, will protect us....oh, and do Not be in a rush to do anything, nor "stretch," nor "create" "wishful" trades, when/if the stock patterns of the issues you "hope" to trade, are just not ready yet, dig ? It's all about PSY-chology, historical pattern recognition, and action....slow and steady wins the race.
Conclusion: I am not going to fight the tape, nor force "longs", here, in depressed issues which are not yet setting up well enough to warrant buying.... Important: the depr. Techs we want, are those which have Not gone to new lows, yet still retain their bases/double-bottom patterns, dig ? The extended Puttable issue we want, show the rolling top pattern I am famous for, and still have the potential to drop a lot, towards their 200 DMA's....Use this initial NL period, to LEARN as much as you can about my "PSYCLE sm", also read all the booklets/essays, and view/learn the patterns....This is a nicely "SPLIT" market all-of-a-sudden, providing both, long and short opportunities, simultaneously, for all types of traders/investors. So, "pick your potion(s)," long and/or short side, for your different accounts/needs....Last, realize, that "PSYCLE sm" traders/investors do NOT waste any time with the "indexes" nor "the market", BUT-- as I said late last year, 1998 was/is going to a lot rougher, after whatever top forms, perhaps March/April, here, and probably again this Fall, than in recent past years, for those people who just hold "one-decision mutual funds", and/or high-priced "big name" stocks....If you have never done Puts, this has been the time to learn how to do so, for the rest of your investing life....
a) as my "PSYCLE sm" is applicable to all types of investments, Orange County, Calif. newspapers, in recent headlines, now exhibit at least S.T. "toppy" messages, (up from Jan. 1997, when I wa among the very few who publically predicted a S.T. bottom in R.E. using my "PSYCLE sm, and all media messages were saying only negative things then), reporting the "best" real estate/housing activity and price comparisons, since 1990/1991 (near the bottom). ...while YOU may not live in So. Calif., it IS an important region (if it was a country, So. Calif., alone, would have the 6th largest economy in the world), I have also been seeing potential general S.T. top signs in R.E. in the Midwest as well, and in the Southeast, soon, probably also....
it is always weird when I put out a bottom/top "PSYCLE sm" stage signal on R.E., since it hits so close to home (pun intended), PSY-chologically, and since so few people "act" on such signals anyway....I received some fame in late 1990, when I was among the very few to predict the impending top, in So. Calif. R.E., based on "Sentiment/Psychological" signals of "PSYCLE sm" stage 4 behavior (you know, people getting too fat and sassy, saying "it will never go down again", "toppy" cocktail party talk, people who knew nothing "beginning" to like R.E., contrary signals, etc.) While I realize that these kinds of timing signals are somewhat "esoteric", this is exactly the kind of thing I am hoping to help YOU learn to employ, in stocks, commodities, etc., via my output (also read my "essay" on "Mastering Psychology/Sentiment"). The eventual timing keys/signals, often involve "seeing" a plethora of "too positive" headlines in local papers, and "hearing" too many Media stories (most of which are probably exagerated) of recent fortunes made in R.E. at the same time, by people who have had no long-term, actual track record in predicting many things correctly, in the past, dig ? When the "lucky people" and the "latecomers" start bragging, and get too emotional, etc., that also helps predict toppy areas, in R.E. (and in stocks), yes ? I hope this item helps you....that most all bottoms/tops, evolve similarly, in most all items, in historical reality, going back decades....
b) As I seem to be among the very few who at least predicted a S.T. correction in Pfizer stock (Puts, from, 117 to 103, then out), I note the continual stories of more takers supposedly dying from using Viagra....whether true or not, the fact that Pfizer STOCK (two diff. things, remember, the company's fortunes, and their stock's fortunes) has still NOT broken 101-103, in fact on 6/9, hit 112+, "into" such supposedly "bad" Media reports....I am NOT recommending PFE here in any way, just showing you, again, to watch what the STOCK does, more than what may or may not be happening to the COMPANY's fundamentals/media reports, dig ? I keep leading you back to my "essays/booklets", which are worth hundreds of times their small cost, not as a sales pitch, but, more, to teach you patterns,
of significant lifetime value to you....
c) L.A.Times, Biz. Section, 6/9: An article,reporting "finnancial/ fundamental problems" at Sunbeam Cp., comes out, only AFTER it's stock (SOC) is already down below $ 19. This made me smile, because just several months ago,
I remember reading/hearing all these glowing reports, from supposed Wall St. experts, in various media, lionizing their president, as a super-turnaround guy (which, in the past he had been at times), when SOC was around $ 50. a share.... dig ? In other words, as I teach to look for as a future-stock-price-predictive tool, the "super-positive-stuff" only occured, NEAR THE HIGH IN THAT STOCK....and, the super-negative stuff, only came out, AFTER the stock had already fallen a lot. See it ? Of course, after SOC forms a base, or an EVB, look for SOC to recover again, even as "Wall St." continues to be turned off to it, right ?(br>
d) Amazing....I heard/saw a "known-famous-but-not-very-good-in-practice" market-guy on a financial TV station, now, point out the recent decline in the CRB futures price Index--- Where was he when my "PSYCLE sm" saw an obvious H & S top, a while ago ? Again, these Media people (and most Wall Streeters) ONLY "point things out", AFTER They have already occured !!! As I cover in my "essay" on "How (NOT) to Use Media Messages", the last several years have seen the most-always- wrong "goldbugs/economists/analysts", continue to warn against higher "inflation", yet, if they just looked at the historical price charts of the CRB, and the commodities therein, they would have seen what WE saw: the likelihood of continuing low inflation for raw materials, lower interest rates, and higher prices for many liquid financial assets, etc. to date....anyway, again, the CHART pattern comes FIRST, period. It was clear, obvious, and an important thing to have known in recent years, yes ? But, as I teach, 95 % of all people never view any charts, so those who do, will have another leg up....hey, the T-bond is UP, here, as "stocks" fall....as I show/prove at length, in my "Scenarios/Linkages" booklet, almost NO "assumed Linkages" exist....learn it....use it....
e) note most "Gold" issues (and Alum.), FALLING....hmmmm....seems to me, all the goldbugs, for 15 years now, have been incorrectly saying, "gold will rise when/if we have global crises", yes ? Well, once again, ain't happening/true.... who are you going to listen to: people who don't teach/show you actual historical patterns, or people who have been continually wrong, for years ? 'nuff said.
As I cover at length in both, my Media, and Scenarios, "essays", the Media's members/sources, themselves, most often tend to agendize, sensationalize, create, slant, and overreport, mostly all the wrong items anyway, at the wrong times, and, therefore, one should learn to IGNORE 95 % of everything out there, which does NOT directly help predict future price moves in individual stocks.... Again, as my "PSYCLE sm" teaches, the "S.E. Asia Crisis" may worsen, economically/ monatarily, and/or from a "human interest" p.o.v., but many individual STOCKS of those types of companies, will Bottom, BEFORE the reported "news/economics/ financials" improve....I am trying to teach you how to do this....Please also try to learn about (and ignore) the "Words" reporters use (covered in my Scenarios, and Media, and Mastering Psychology "essays") which lead "the 95 %" to emote improperly, and act, when they should not....When the Media "creates" stories where none exist, and/or exaggerates, to cause emotionalism, it wastes everyone's resources/time, and causes many people to "act" in an emotional manner, incorrectly, which doesn't help anyone....so we mostly IGNORE those messages.
Also, remember my comments on assumed-but-incorrect "Linkages" (read that booklet) in my last NL here. They always get people most bearish/scared, right near the lows.... People are always looking back in hindsight, and wishing they bought the "crisis lows"....We will likely get another opportunity with the depressed Asian issues at some point ahead....Again, if doing so is not your "cup of tea", just don't choose those issues, trade others which feel more comfortable to you....just try to learn how to do this (and how to buy Puts)....learn what NOT to let into the "decison-making side" of your brain, etc.
New Longs: OXHP @ 16+, BBA @ 4.06, KLB @ 3 13/16, PLL @ 20-, MSN @ 7/16,
DIMD @7,....important note: when I saw so many depr. Techs. cracking, I pulled back from buying even several stocks given herein in Fri. and Mon. NL's, and removed them before Hypothetically "bt.", dig ?....we do NOT Buy, and hopefully you do not either, issues making new lows, and/or showing lousy patterns....those include(d) SPCT, WDC, KEG, and GW, which were NOT bt. !!!
New Puts: TEF @ 142+, BPOP @ 70-, ISYS @ @32, GRN @ 227+, CTAS @ 50, ZBRA
@ 39, SNPS @ 46-, TKLC @48-, CI. @ 61-, XL @ 75+, NYT @ 74, PPG @ 75,
REV @ 54+, TLC @ 28-, BUR @ 18-, GVA @ 29-, AFL @ 33+, OMC @ 47+, BBK @67+,
SGE @ 50+, STD @ 52, MAY @ 65....
....and/but, just missed, SLOT, GPSI., MHK, APD, as puts near their highs, near recent lows....check their patterns also, if you'd like, to learn, for the next time....I will always tell you also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" their patterns, for your benefit/education....obviously, recent "results/actions" are skewed towards the Puts side....the idea is to learn the patterns of previously done ideas, for the future.... as I said, many "Techs", and Asians, and Metals, WILL bottom at some point ahead, and we will be there when they form better bases/"EVB's", but for some, just Not yet....As I said, it may continue rough for a while yet, in those long-siders....
note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength"....("S") means Sell it (t)here....
and/or are sales on strength ("ms/sos") :
5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions :
(issues moving since last time, following-up, still in Puts, unless otherwise noted):
(note: ("sow") means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support")
* but, these, are acting too strong, and/or are bouncing, and/or must weaken/anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks: SOTR -1 1/4, FNV -1 1/2, PRMS, SPOT, DELL, NSPR, CEFT, BPOP, CCSC, SBUX, TKLC, FILE, FISV, INTU, WHIT, UHS, AWA, DNB, GRN, CSC, MAS, ASO, BBK, MAY, CVC, UMG, AGI., LCI., VIA, HB, LU, CI..... obviously, Thu./Fri./Mon. pops threatened many "puts" patterns....if you are not already in any puts, just concentrate on the "newly bought" puts in section (2) above here....and forget these in this section....
....remember, we either buy our puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....and, many of the issues listed herein, are from previously suggested newsletters, as I said....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully learn from....and/but, removed these from pot. Put list, before "put":
VMSI., HBOC, KNDL, ICIX, CCL, GAC, (view their patterns to see what aborted Put patterns look like).
(again, I give you all those, so you can view "puts patterns aborted before positions were Hypothetically established" as well, for your learning/benefit)
"health": OXHP, CCLR, LIPO, CNU, TOX,
"metals": CAU, RYO, CCH, (all Very Risky Cheapies in bases, so please be careful, only where suitable....these are Not "overnite" trades....remember, we employ almost NO fundamentals on these.)
"in other industry groups": MSN, KLB,
....and, I am also watching these, as potential buys, at some point ? CLCDF, MADGF, CEPH, SYQT, CADA, EMLX, WKGP, QDEK, FPAM, DGSI., DDIM, BDE, HLX, DGN, MLR, HMY, BBA, PLL, NGL, IIR, EX (as potential basers, or double-bottoms) ....again, most are very depr. Techs., but, as I intimated, is just not a great "long-side" list, here, still, dig ?)
....and, see, some depr. Comp./Semis, like, NSM, SGI., MU, are back down approaching their previous support. ...I gave out many such issues, last time, in Dec./Jan., in their beautiful (better) saucer bases, back then....see what they did from then, for your educational learning....they may all be decent here, near their recent lows as well, but do NOT expect as large rises this time, because they do NOT have bases here....
....and, as per early commentary above, these may have "potential" S.T. bottom formations, and/or "Exhaustion V Bottoms" (EVB's) soon ?: MRVC, CHIR, PSSI., AAC, TOY, APA ...eh....maybe not yet....Important: and/but, also, took these off pot. long buy list, before "bt.": SYBS, SPCT, KEG, BGO, AMD, GFI., ....they just need more work, first, and/or are making new lows....
....The best Puttable Ind. Groups continue to be among extended Financials, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Media, Consumer, stocks (again, the problem, as I begin my NL here, is that many have already dropped from their highs, and we never "chase" down in puts, once they are down from their highs)....and issues are quickly removed, when/if they break above their potential rolling top formations (as above)....I know sometimes that can be infuriating, but, if one properly diversifies, and only does L.T., in-the-money puts, this is rarely a problem.... but I do "pull" stocks off lists quickly, when they break the patterns, and you should, too....we will catch plenty of VG puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?)....note, today's Puttables lists are a real mish-mosh, with no real outstanding Ind. Group messages....this differs from the situation March/April, when mostly the Health-relateds and the Rails, etc., showed many similarly toppy issues simultaneously....this time, it is more broad, dig ? read my "essay" on "How to exploit the Downside in Puts" for deeper coverage of this phenomenon, and info. on which Options to buy, how much to pay, etc. (L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).
Since these are my first few NL issues, of many future "Lessons", initially, besides the lessons gleaned from my commentaries above, and from my 6 (six) "essays/booklets", I think the next Lesson to learn, today, besides doing more/some Puts, is that, somehow trying to place more and more "info./stuff" into your brain, of "news/fundamental" nature, is NOT the thing to do, as has been proven countless times historically. Very Little reported in Media, is of directly useable future price predictive value "DUPPV"). "They" said Japan, Mexico, Europe, Russia, and, now, Asia, crisis situations would destroy our U.S. markets, and, each time, "they" scared the unenlightened from buying depressed near their lows yes ? What one must learn, is to "separate", those 5 % of items which ARE of "DUPPV", from the 95 % which waste everyone's time, and fill up our "brain space" uselessly....and, that ALL "news stories" end, and their effects, if any, fade, by nature, over time, EVEN AS THE MEDIA CONTINUES TO (OVER)REPORT the same story onward....such, that, near eventual bottoms, "they" are still reprting negative stuff, yet the STOCKS of connected companies, will most often, have already bottomed, and may even rise, "into" such "negativeness", dig ? Therefore, it is better to buy some stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, and have occasional small cut losses, than to never do that at all....Similarly, it is better to TRY some "puts/options" this way, when suitable, than to never do any...."PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe...one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves....this is a good thing....normal....
This is also a PSY-chological process, as people tend to fear things they are unaware of, have not studied, or know little about....Part of this whole process, is learning to CHANGE some of (y)our possibly incorrect/damaging behaviors/beliefs, to make this a simpler, and more effective way to predict and exploit future stock price moves, more often....so try to enjoy this whole experience....do not expect riches overnite....it takes some time, but is certainly worth it....
*** Again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or put, stocks "now": as long as their current prices are right near those given in Section (3), that is where you find "do-able now" ideas....and, Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable lists, when/if those issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to your "Guide" to my NL, which will have been sent to you soon after you subscribed....obviously, this NL is a "work in process", a true lifetime learning tool for you, and not an "overnite junk NL", and I want to do my best for you....we are just beginning, and you will be receiving a ton of useable, learnable, specific information from here, and in my "essays/booklets", and in future special reports....thanks again, and spread the word.
*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "illiquid" than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15 stocks are "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) if those issues are also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)