1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions: (issues moving since last time, following-up, still long, unless otherwise noted):
6) other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent highs Only, L.T., in-the-money puts Only, Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
Welcome....Again, I am "beginning" my new newsletter (NL), and educational services, as a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas for the benefit of the many people who are also coming over from it's Previous incarnation, to provide Them with a "seamless" transition, "on the fly", so to speak....and Also, to show YOU, as NEW subcribers, all the Recently/past suggested ideas, which I shared with my followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn. Remember, all my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's....and, eventually, all my "essays".
Obviously, Thursday-Monday has seen a continuation of "PSYCLE sm" decline
from Mar./Apr. tops in many issues for us....Hopefully, you have had some Puts, and are holding above-avg. cash positions....with Asia and Japan providing the "cover story", with India nuclear fears, and the Media hammering the Techs.... no biggie....Same pattern....Again, what to LEARN, is to rise above the "average person's," 1) illogical fear of Puts options, and, 2) the "Media-created" fear- near-short-term-lows (this morning, I heard reporters use the term "global maket meltdown" several times already)....Buying, where suitable, some Puts on at least a few given ideas, which are still right near their highs in toppy patterns, while, if suitable, also looking to buy, long, at least "something" in depressed stocks, at some point ahead, where those stocks are right near bases/support (provided those bases/double-bottoms/patterns are intact, and those stocks are Not still hitting new lows) as "the 95 %" are pretty scared, here, right ? With close stops, being diversified, one really has lower risk doing it this way....it is SUPPOSED to be somewhat uncomfortable/scary to do this at extremes, yes ? That's one reason why so few people buy near lows, and/or buy Puts near highs.... Remember, we are NOT acting directly "on" any "external" stuff, like, foreign or domestic news/financials, indexes, Media messages---we are acting, to try to take advantage of long-existing, repeating paterns, of chart, ind. group, media, and human behaviors, adding/using I.G.R. where applicable....Again, "PSYCLE sm" traders are NOT overnite/day traders, nor 'scalpers'....our general holding period with successes, is still at least several weeks, or a few months, so you do NOT want to be watching/hanging on every little move in "the averages", nor every "story" reported, which is, again, one reason why we Rarely watch the indexes.... with NO emotion, and almost No "news", into our brain....
So, while I am definitely trying to pick up some depressed bargains long, and catch some extended top formations in puts, here, I am still recommending holding above-avg. cash balances with good-sized accounts. Do NOT become scared/ emotional here, nor "try to guess bottoms on issues which are still making new lows". Learn to let the decliners bottom, base, become "EVB's", or reach support levels, First ...and, as for Puts, selling those which fall towards their 200 DMA's, or below, for quick, nice % Gains-- see section (3) below....Important: also realize, that this whole "Asian thing", should play out, as all previous "crises" have, like, Japan, Mexico, Canada, Silicon Valley, Europe/Berlin Wall, Russia, Middle East, etc., have/did, in recent past years, each of those providing us with nice depressed long buys, into the "scary news", near their lows, dig ? The pattern/sequence is most always the Same, each "crisis"....learn it....
One PSY-chological element to recognize/take advantage of here, is how, when one is actually viewing the events occuring, one tends to lose PERSPECTIVE, and/or overreact S.T. (read my "essays" on "Mastering Psychology", and, "Scenarios and Perspective", to learn how NOT to let those kinds of things hurt your decision- making here....By eliminating our emotional reactions/needs, properly Diversify- ing, with stops, only doing stocks with proper patterns, will protect us....oh, and please do Not be in a rush to do anything, nor "stretch," nor "create" "wishful" trades, when/if the stock patterns of the issues you "hope" or "want"
to trade, at some point, are just not ready yet, dig ? This is all about PSY-chology, historical pattern recognition, and THEN (in)action.
Conclusion: I am not going to fight the tape, nor force "longs", here, in depressed issues which are not yet setting up well enough to warrant buying.... (see how many I have removed from pot. Buy list, because they broke....also note, how many potential "EVB's" exist, in section (6) below....there are always a bunch of those near oversold S.T. bottoms, yes ? Often, as I teach at length in my "essay/booklet" on mastering Industry Gruop Rotation, one can tell more about what lies ahead, by viewing the Individual stock charts, than anything else "external" to the internal markets themselves....the action of the EVB's may indeed tell us when the decline is over). Important: the Depr. Techs we do want, are those which have Not gone to new lows, yet still retain their bases/double-bottom patterns, dig ? (or, of course, EVB"s which show cathartic, high volume, for bounces into negativeness). The extended Puttable issues we want, still show the rolling top pattern I am known for teaching, and still have the potential to drop a lot, towards their 200 DMA's....Use this initial NL period, to LEARN as much as you can about my "PSYCLE sm", also read all the booklets/essays, and view/learn the patterns....This is a nicely "SPLIT" market all-of-a-sudden, providing both, long and short opportunities, simultaneously, for all types of traders/investors. So, "pick your potion(s)," long and/or short side, for your different accounts/needs ....And, if you have never done Puts, this has been the time to learn how to do so, for the rest of your investing life.
a) I see the "energies/oils"-type issues (and the "oil price" commodity itself) still not forming buyable bases, exactly as I predicted to my people, even after they had their large decline off "PSYCLE sm" tops, late last year, a top I really did predict/share back then....Notice: their stocks FELL, even as their "earnings" continued to RISE, dig ? Again, they are two different things ! The occasional pops the Oils/Oil. Svc. stocks had, since early 1998 lows, were, as I predicted publicly at that time, likely to be only "stage 5 or 6" -type pops, within a larger "PSYCLE sm" decline, and, NOT "great buys again like they were 3-4 years ago", got that ? I originally had deopressed Energy stocks like, GLM, VRC, BHI., others, etc., a few years ago, UNDER $ 3-10., as L.T. "PSYCLE sm" bases (go view them, in their depr. bases back then)....But,
as I teach to recognize, when an ind. group or a stock falls, from, say, $ 50., to, say, $ 20., it is still way UP, from it's all-time low, at, say, $ 3., right ? Therefore, those stocks are/were NOT stage 1 buys at $ 20., if at all, at that time, dig ? Without better bases, we will NOT buy any "energy" issues yet.... note, NBR, RDC, TDW, PKD, BDI., SII., made recent new lows, even as their 'earnings" are up....also, note, as I teach at length in my special "essay" on "Industry Group Rotation", although they are in no way buys up here, some Airlines are UP, with Oils down....they are sometimes "linked", but we never buy any issues which are already way up, regardless, right ? (read that essay also)....
b) Note, recently, that many Interest-sensitive issues, and Bonds, are NOT moving down "with" other equities....as I cover at length in my "essay" on why most all assumed "Scenarios" and "Linkages" do NOT work much, "bonds, etc." do NOT move "with" nor are they as "connected" to, stocks, anywhere nearly as often as "they" would have people believe/assume, historically....Learn this....that's just another misleading, incomplete item, which the Media, and Wall St., "says" is true a lot, but, in fact, has NOT been to an extent worthy of acting upon...read my essay. You do realize, that, for instance, Japan interest-rates have been near
1 %, for years now....both, when the Nikkei. was 35,000, and, also, now with the Nikkei. at 13,000....Similarly/conversely, our "U.S. dollar Index", was 80- 85. in the early 1980's, then hit 150. in mid-1980's, then, a few months ago, around 85. again. The US dollar FELL a ton, WHILE stocks ROSE a ton, since then, yes ? But "the experts" incorrectly have been telling you, that somehow, a "rising dollar is good, and vice-versa", yes ? But, here is more prrof, that that is just NOT true...."PSYCLE sm" Meaning: NO "linkage" exists....so we IGNORE That item.
c) I also see interesting "baby-with-the-bathwater" dumping of ALL foreign stocks, including, for instance, the "Latin America" stocks, which, although, as you know, I hate Fundamentals, IS a "better" region, financially, than, say, most of the Asian areas, here....therefore, I added a few Mexico/Latin Amer. issues, to the potential EVB list, below....again, I am using "fundamentals" a bit, but in a reverse/contrary manner to how "the 95 %" do, i.e., and ONLY after/as their stocks form the "technical" chart pattern I want to see, dig ? The chart comes FIRST, and any fundamentals, LAST, and the timing, from the additional "Media behavior patterns" I teach to learn to recognize....
d) In a neat follow-up from my very recent NL, today, was reported that "chainsaw Al Dunlap" from Sunbeam, had been ousted by the b.o.d. of SOC....on high, cathartic volume, SOC hit $ 16. low, this morning....hmmmm, an immediate EVB if I have ever see one, yes ? maybe take a shot, with a close stop ? but it's options are a bit pricy....
e) Last, the worst of the depresseds "Techs drops" is now over, short-term
As I cover at length in both, my Media, and Scenarios, "essays", the Media's members/sources, themselves, most often tend to agendize, sensationalize, create, slant, and overreport, mostly all the wrong items anyway, at the wrong times, and, therefore, one should learn to IGNORE 95 % of everything out there, which does NOT directly help predict future price moves in individual stocks.... Again, as my "PSYCLE sm" teaches, the "S.E. Asia Crisis" may worsen, economically/ monetarily, and/or from a "human interest" point-of-view, but many individual STOCKS of those types of companies, will Bottom, BEFORE the reported "economics/ financials/news" improve....I am trying to teach you how to do this....Please also try to learn about (and ignore) the "Words" reporters use (covered in my Linkages, Scenarios, and Media, and Mastering Psychology "essays") which lead "the 95 %" to emote improperly, and act, when they should not....When the Media "creates" stories where none exist, and/or exaggerates, to cause emotionalism, it wastes everyone's resources/time, and causes many people to "act" in an emotional manner, incorrectly, which doesn't help anyone....so we mostly IGNORE those messages.
In historical fact, almost NO "assumed linkages" nor "scenarios" exist, nor work, as "they" suggest, and as I prove/teach in my "essay" on those subjects.
New Longs: CEPH @ 9 5/8, LTV @ 9 5/8, ESOL @ 3 3/4, SHVA @ 8+,IIR @ 11.,
TOX @ 5/16....
New Puts:
QTRN @ 50+, BBBY @ 55+, COFI. @ 35+, VIA/B @ 56+, FNF @ 36+,
MAY @ 65, PFT @ 41, NFS @ 44+, AGC @ 69-, MAS @ 57+, ZLC @ 31-, SGE @ 50+,
CVS @ 76-, DSL @ 34, AWA @ 29, UIS @ 24+, DG @ 40+, HB @ 62, CI. @ 70+,....
....and/but, just missed, TCOMA, MTX, HLI., DEX, SUB, MMC, SLOT, WFC, BBV, NOK, ALL, DNY, CCI., LM, GR, as puts, near recent highs....check their patterns also, if you'd like, to learn, for the next time....I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" their patterns, for your benefit/ education....obviously, recent "SOLDS/results/actions" are skewed towards the Puts side....the idea is to learn the patterns of previously done ideas, for the future ....as I said, many "Techs", and Asians, and Metals, WILL bottom at some point ahead, and we will be there when they form better bases/"EVB's", but for some, just Not yet....As I said, it may continue rough for a while yet, in those long-siders....
note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength"....("S") means Sell it (t)here....
and/or are sales on strength ("ms/sos") :
5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions :
(issues moving since last time, following-up, still in Puts, unless otherwise noted):
(note: ("sow") means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support")
* but, these, are acting too strong, and/or are bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): BJ -3 1/2 (sow), NSPR -2, +2, AOC -2, FISV -1, AGI. -1, CMCSA, SBUX, SOTR, CTAS, SPOT, DELL, ASGN, CEFT, PMTC, CCSC, SBUX, TLAB, TCAT, INTU, WHIT, UHS, AWA, DNB, GRN, CSC, GVA, ASO, BBK, CVC, AEH, UMG, SPF, UFC, FSA, LEA, OMC, AEH, LCI., VIA, UIS, LIN, HB, LU, CL, CI.....if you did not buy Puts in these, in this section, near their recent highs, you do not have to view their charts, unless you want to view their charts anyway....
....remember, we either buy our puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....and, some of the issues listed herein, are from previously suggested newsletters, as I said....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully learn from....and/but, removed these from pot. Put list, before "put": none.
(view their patterns to see what aborted Put patterns look like).
(again, I give you all those, so you can view "puts patterns aborted before positions were Hypothetically established" as well, for your learning/benefit)
"health": OXHP, CCLR, LIPO, CNU, TOX,
"in other industry groups": MSN, KEG,
....and, I am also "watching" these, as potential buys, at some point ? MADGF, CEPH, SYQT, SHVA, CADA, EMLX, WKGP, SHVA, QDEK, DGSI., ISSI., BDE, HLX, DGN, DEN, MLR, OEA, SFT, LTV, SGI., IIR, CS, (as potential basers, or double-bottoms).... ....again, most are very depr. Techs. (see EVB's, below), but, as I intimated,
it is just Not a great "long-side" list, here, still, dig ?)
....and, see, some depr. Comp./Semis, like, NSM, SGI., are back down approaching their previous support....I gave out many such issues, last time, in Dec./Jan., in their beautiful (better) saucer bases, back then....see what they did from then, for your educational learning....they may all be decent here, near their recent lows as well, but do NOT expect as large rises this time, because they do NOT have bases here....
Important: and/but, also, took these Off pot. long Buy list, before Hypothetically "bt.": CLCDF, CTHR, FPAM, CRUS, SYBS, ATML, SAMC, MRVC, SEW, HMY, BGO, APA, NGL, CAU, AMD, EOG, CDE, RYO, SOC, CY, MU....Not yet....they just need more work, first, and/or are making new lows....as i have been saying, a very difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or Puts....we do NOT "Guess" bottoms....
....The best Puttable Ind. Groups continue to be among extended Financials, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Media, Consumer, stocks (again, the problem, as I begin my NL here, is that many have already dropped from their highs, and we never "chase" down in puts, once they are down from their highs)....and issues are quickly removed, when/if they break above their potential rolling top formations (as above)....I know sometimes that can seem weird, but, if one properly diversifies, and only does L.T., in-the-money puts, this is rarely a problem.... but I do "pull" stocks off lists quickly, when they break the patterns, and you should, too....we will catch plenty of VG puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?)....
....note, today's Puttables lists are a real mish-mosh, with no real outstanding Ind. Group messages....this differs from the situation March/April, when mostly the Health-relateds and the Rails, etc., showed many similarly toppy issues simultaneously....this time, it is more broad, dig ? But, I continue to find more Puttables, which says something....read my "essay" on "How to exploit the Downside in Puts" for deeper coverage of this phenomenon, and info. on which Options to buy, how much to pay, etc. (L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).
Since these are my first few NL issues, of many future "Lessons", initially, besides the lessons gleaned from my past commentaries above, and from my 6 (six) "essays/booklets", I think the next Lesson to learn, today, besides doing more/some Puts, What one must learn, is to "separate", those 5 % of items which ARE of "DUPPV", from the 95 % which waste everyone's time, and fill up our "brain space" uselessly with items, that, even if they are true, still do not DIRECTLY help us predict future stock price moves....and, that ALL "news stories" end, and their effects, if any, fade, by nature, over time, EVEN AS THE MEDIA CONTINUES TO (OVER)REPORT the same story onward....such, that, near eventual bottoms, "they" are still reprting negative stuff, yet the STOCKS of connected companies, will most often, have already bottomed, and may even rise, "into" such "negativeness", dig ? As pertains the "Asians", when they do bottom, and they will, their stocks will likely rise, BEFORE you are told things are better,. dig ? This is one of many logical reasons why "trying to act on the obvious tambor of media reoprts" does NOT work as well, and why my "PSYCLE sm" has been so good, over the years, in our timing....Therefore, it is better to buy some stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed patterns, and have occasional small cut losses, than to never do that at all....Similarly, it is better to TRY some "puts/options" this way, when suitable, than to never do any...."PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe. ...one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves....this is a good thing....normal....Also, try to learn about "baby- with-bathwater" selling action, like we had early Friday last week....Yeah, I know it is difficult, to buy anything into a "knife-drop" atmosphere, but, seriously, every such S.T. period, since the 1987 crash, has presented S.T. opportunities, if not more....Not also, I finally added a few depressed "Asians" and Techs, above, in section (6), as potential EVB's soon (accepting that I was wrong with SEW and TLK recently). Again, one must learn to make each investing period independent of past periods' results....another PSY-chological item to master....
This is also a PSY-chological process, as people tend to fear things they are unaware of, have not studied, or know little about....Part of this whole process, is learning to CHANGE some of (y)our possibly incorrect/damaging behaviors/beliefs, to make this a simpler, and more effective way to predict and exploit future stock price moves, more often....so try to enjoy this whole experience....do not expect riches overnite....it takes some time, but is certainly worth it....
*** Again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or put, stocks "now": as long as their current prices are right near those given in Section (3), that is where you find "do-able now" ideas....and, Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable lists, when/if those issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to your "Guide" to my NL, which will have been sent to you soon after you subscribed....obviously, this NL is a "work in process", a true lifetime learning tool for you, and not an "overnite junk NL", and I want to do my best for you....we are just beginning, and you will be receiving a ton of useable, learnable, specific information from here, and in my "essays/booklets", and in future special reports....thanks again, and spread the word.
*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "illiquid" than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15 stocks are "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) if those issues are also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)