1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, following-up, still long, unless otherwise noted):
6) other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent highs Only, L.T., in-the-money puts Only, Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
Welcome....Again, my new newsletter (NL), and educational services, is also a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ ideas, for the benefit of the people who are also coming over from it's Previous incarnation, to provide Them with a "seamless" transition, "on the fly", so to speak....and Also, to show YOU, as NEW subcribers, all the Recently/past suggested ideas, which I shared with my followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn. Remember, all my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof".
IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's.... and, eventually, all my "essays".
Again, first, I hope you have viewed the many charts of the many Extended "Puts" issues "SOLD" in recent days past, to "see" the patterns, for the next time....obviously, as usual with "the PSYCLE sm", and as I said herein, "late Mon., early Tue.", was going to be "a" S.T. bottom in many stocks, with such baby/bathwater/PSY-chological action....read my essay on "Sentiment"....
Again, one important thing to LEARN, is to rise above the "only average person's," 1) illogical fear of Puts options, and, 2) the "Media-created" fear- near-short-term-lows (this morning, I heard reporters use the term "global maket meltdown" several times already), and 3) to at least Buy long, "something" at an "EVB", like we had Monday/Tuesday....Buying, where suitable, some Puts on at least a few given ideas, which are still right near their highs in toppy patterns, while, if suitable, also looking to buy, long, at least "something" in depressed stocks, here, where those stocks are right near bases/support (provided those bases/double-bottoms/patterns are intact, and those stocks are Not still hitting new lows) as "the 95 %" are still pretty antsy here, right ? With close stops, being diversified, one really has lower risk doing it this way....it is SUPPOSED to be somewhat uncomfortable/scary to do this, at extremes, yes ? That's one reason why so few people buy Longs near lows, and/or buy Puts near highs....But remember, we are still NOT acting directly "on" any "external" stuff, like, foreign or domestic news/financials, indexes, or Media messages---we are acting, to try to take advantage of long-existing, repeating Patterns, of chart, ind. group, media, and human behaviors, adding/using I.G.R. where applicable....Again, "PSYCLE sm" traders are NOT overnite/day traders, nor 'scalpers'....our general holding period with successes, is still at least several weeks, or a few months, so you do NOT want to be watching/hanging on every little move in "the averages", nor every "story" reported, which is, again, one reason why we Rarely watch the indexes....with NO emotion, and almost No "news", into our brain....
So, while I am definitely trying to pick up some depressed bargains long, and catch some extended top formations in puts, here, I am still recommending holding above-avg. cash balances with good-sized accounts. Do NOT become scared/ emotional here, nor "try to guess bottoms on issues which are still making new lows" (how many times have I said THAT already ?). Learn to let the decliners bottom, base, or become "EVB's", or reach previous support levels, First ...and, as for Puts, selling those which fall towards their 200 DMA's, or below, for quick, nice % Gains-- see section (3) below....Important: also realize, that this whole "Asian thing", should play out, as all previous "crises" have, like, Japan, Mexico, Canada, Silicon Valley, Europe/Berlin Wall, Russia, Middle East, etc., have/did, in recent past years, each of those providing us with nice depressed long buys, into the "scary news", near their lows, dig ? The pattern/sequence is most always the Same, each "crisis"....learn it....(of course, the depressed "Techs" may p[rovide better "bouncer" potential S.T. here....>
And please do Not be in a rush to do anything/everything, nor "stretch," nor "create" "wishful" trades, when/if the stock patterns of the issues you "hope" or "want" to trade, at some point, are just not ready yet, dig ? This is all about PSY-chology, historical pattern recognition, and THEN (in)action....But, as I said in Monday's NL, you gotta have Bought long, "something" among the depressed issues I have given out, with close stops....
Conclusion: While recommending buying "something" depressed here, I am not going to fight the tape, nor force some "longs", here, in those other depressed issues which are not yet setting up well enough to warrant buying....(see how many I have removed from pot. Buy list, because they broke....yet, again, also note, how many potential "EVB's" exist, in section (6) below....there are always a bunch of those near oversold S.T. bottoms, yes ? Often, as I teach at length in my "essay/booklet" on mastering Industry Group Rotation, one can tell more about what lies ahead, by viewing the Individual stock charts, than anything else "external" to the internal markets themselves....the action of the EVB's may indeed tell us when the decline is over....and late Mon./early Tue. was/is a VG start of a bottom, for many stocks, dig ?). Important: the Depr. Techs we DO want, are those which have Not gone to new lows, yet still retain their bases, or double-bottom patterns, and/or, those that have high-volume, cathartic, "Exhaustion V Bottoms",
like early this week had, with such negativeness....You must try to have the PSY-chological strength to dip your toes into the "Long-side" water, right near EVB's, here, a bit....as I say below, buying "something" depressed, with stops, beats being too afraid PSY-chologically, to buy anything after a decline like we just had....master the PSY-chology of the "PSYCLE sm"....
The extended Puttable issues we want, still show the rolling top pattern
I am known for teaching, and still have the potential to drop a lot, towards their 200 DMA's....Use this initial NL period, to LEARN as much as you can about my "PSYCLE sm", also read all my booklets/essays, and view/learn the patterns....This is still a nicely "SPLIT" market, providing both, long and short opportunities, simultaneously, for all types of traders/investors. So, "pick your potion(s)," long and/or short side, for your different accounts/needs....You should have been holding a well-above avg. level of cash in your growth accounts, which you can now be dipping your toes into the water on the Long-side down here with....And, if you have never done Puts, this has been the time to learn how to do so, from me, using my "booklet/essay" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, for the rest of your life.
Again, you must learn to pretty much INGORE the DJI average....letting SMALL % (big seemingly big in points) moves, up and down 200 points, will only creat eEMotionalism in your psyche, which is NOT what you want, yes ? Look, the DJIA "divisor" is down from 3.00 in the 1970's, to under 0.25 today....meaning, every point move in any DJIA stock, translates into 4 points reported in the average itself ! You mean you did not know this ? Plus, you have to learn to buy puts after big rises, and buy long, after big declines....the opposite if what "the 95 %" do, right ? Do NOT be swayed by every + or - 200 point move in the Dow....even 500 points, on 8,800, is "only" 5.6 %....
a) I have been listening to the many "earnings estimates/changes" being put out by B-houses lately, mostly to the lower....One big benefit of my "PSYCLE sm" to learn, as I teach in my "Scenarios/Linkages" essay, is to recognize the uselessness of 95 % of everything formally put out by brokerage firm research.....seriously, I heard one firm, actually say a certain stock, AFTER it has already fallen a lot from where THEY liked it (don't get me started), was, now, a short-term sale, but a they still liked it long-term. What the heck does that mean ? Not only was their ogininal rec. wrong, but now, near their S.T. bottoms, NOW they "begin" to get bearish on those stocks, dig ? and be sure, they were/are just covering their you-know-whats, by saying, as they inevitably do in such cases, "they still like it longer-term"...Listen: that kind of rationalization/remark, is useless....many of the stocks they "just lowered estimates on", are already UP, since their faulty-as-usual timing, dig ?
b)L.A. Times, 6/9: article titled, "Bear Watching" (a pun, get it ?) actually gave publicity to another famous-but-not-very-good-in-reality, overpaid newsletter writer, who has been INCORRECTLY BEARISH FOR YEARS, reporting him, as "still bearish"....right near the recent S.T. low in many stocks....as I said here, my concept involves learning what 95 % of "things" to IGNORE, and/or learning how to "fade" (i.e., go opposite) reported items, when certain stocks exhibit certain stages patterns of their "PSYCLE sm"....this is taught at length, in my "Media" essay....
c)"silver" commodity, acting better, again, then "gold" is....but "stock" patterns not as attafctive as the commodity is, which is why I am Not adding a bunch of prec. metals, yet....
d)Following-up on Sunbeam....since it has still hit new lows, it had still NOT yet become an EVB buy, dig ? but @ 13 -ish, is trying to form one....
e)and, as I said 11 am, PST, Monday 15th, the worst of the depresseds "Techs drops", and "Asians drops" was/is now over, for many short-term bounces (see sectionb (3) and (6) below....as usual, my "PSYCLE sm" was/is the first/only, to predict/catch them....note: if You know anyone who might also benefit from timing like this, or you know any "Media" people who might help publicize this, please lead them to my output, and I will reward you....
f) I just received acall from an old client for whom I tripled his money in an options account over 1 1/2 years, a while ago, then he quite to buy a business which he almost subsequently lost, and who has not traded anything since...his comment, trying to make market conversation, was, "hey, Microsoft got killed lately, huh...." "Killed ?" gee, MSFT today is still over 90., still near it's high of 99., yes ? So, I said to him, "Gosh, I don't see that....how can you say that ?" He replied, "it went down to the 80's recently, didn't it ?" I said, "Sure, but a drop from 99 to 81, is not "killed', is it ?" The "PSYCLE sm" point, for YOU to learn, as I teach in my "essay" on Scenarios and Words, is that many people who are Not VG at predicting future prices of stocks, nevertheless use certain "words" to engender emotional/sensational reactions to stocks, which are not even accurate in fact !!! This causes them, and their listeners, to have inorrect item put into their brains, PSY-chologically, hurting their potential to profit, dig ? And, realize, 95 % of all people do not ever even look at the chart, do they ? Gosh, I wish he was more bullish....I'd buy puts in MSFT if he had been....
As I cover at length in both, my Media, and Scenarios, "essays", the Media's members/sources, themselves, most often tend to agendize, sensationalize, create, slant, and overreport, mostly all the wrong items anyway, at the wrong times, and, therefore, one should learn to IGNORE 95 % of everything out there, which does NOT directly help predict future price moves in individual stocks.... Again, as my "PSYCLE sm" teaches, the "S.E. Asia Crisis" may worsen, economically/ monetarily, and/or from a "human interest" point-of-view, but many individual STOCKS of those types of companies, will Bottom, BEFORE the reported "economics/ financials/news" improve....I am trying to teach you how to do this....Please also try to learn about (and ignore) the "Words" reporters use (covered in my Linkages, Scenarios, and Media, and Mastering Psychology "essays") which lead "the 95 %" to emote improperly, and act, when they should not....When the Media "creates" stories where none exist, and/or exaggerates, to cause emotionalism, it wastes everyone's resources/time, and causes many people to "act" in an emotional manner, incorrectly, which doesn't help anyone....so we mostly IGNORE those messages.
In historical fact, almost NO "assumed linkages" nor "scenarios" exist, nor work, as "they" suggest, and as I prove/teach in my "essay" on those subjects.
New Longs: LTV @ 9 5/8, RMBS @ 36+, MADGF @ 4 1/2, PAASF @ 8.06, CHIR @ 17+, KEG @ 14 3/4, ICST @ 13, BBA @ 3 13/16, BDE @ 2 7/16, SNRZ @ 28, DMN @ 13.06, IDTI. @ 7-, DIMD @ 6, AOI. @ 4 3/8, GFI. @ 5-, CUM @ 52-, FWC @ 22 11/16,
CPU @ 16-, SGI. @ 11+, DBD @ 24, CIR @ 16, OEA @ 17-, MLR @ 7-, NGL @ 14, CNU @ 5, CD @ 18-, ROC @ 6, TOX @ 5/16....notice, our first EVB buys here....be sure to read that "essay" I offer....inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for timing...
oh, also, note, besides Depr. Techs, the recent potential long Buys list, is a mish-mosh, with no other real clear "industry Group Rotation signals, yet.... maybe, also when/if some Energy issues hold down here, but usually, I find several IGR issues to exploit, but Not here....no biggie, though, since we'll just buy individual issues regardless....as I teach in my "essay/booklet" on IGR, we don't "have" to have clear I.G.'s, when so many depr. issues have completed short-term EVB's anyway, etc. But, learn this: often, one or two issues in a depr. I.G. will set up, then, others in that I.G. will folow, over time, so I do watch for that ahead....it's just, that, obviously, when several in one I.G. set up, we have more "power"....
New Puts: TKLC @48, GRN @ 225+, MAY @ 65+, MCK @ 80+, REP @ 56+, AEH @ 50,
HB @ 62,
....and/but, just missed, GSTRF (view it, vs. its 200 DMA), RWAY, as puts, near recent highs, and, MDCO, SYQT, ADPT, EOG, VTO, CDG, ELY, UST, UTI., CY, and some Energies, as Long buys, near recent EVB's.... check their patterns also, if you'd like, to learn, for the next time....I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" their patterns, for your benefit/education....obviously, recent "SOLDS/completed trades/results/ actions" have been skewed towards the Puts side....the idea is to learn the patterns of previously done ideas, for the future....as I said, many "Techs", and Asians, and Metals, WILL bottom ahead, and we will be there when they form better bases/"EVB's", but for some, just Not yet....we already have seen some, right ? As I said, it may still continue rough for a while yet, in those long-siders.
note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength"....("S") means Sell it (t)here....
and/or are sales on strength ("ms/sos") :
5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions :
(issues moving since last time, following-up, still in Puts, unless otherwise noted):
(note: ("sow") means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support")
* but, then, these, are acting too strong, and/or are bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): TEF -2 1/2, FRO -1 1/2, ASGN -1, STD -1, FISV, COFI., AGI., SOTR, CTAS, SPOT, PMTC, TCAT, INTU, FILE, SGE, AWA, DNB, GRN, ASO, BBK, NYT, AOC, SPF, FSA, OMC, AEH, LCI., VIA.B, GIC, LIN, CI, DL....if you did not buy Puts in these, in this section, near their recent highs, you do not necessarily have to view their charts, unless you want to view their charts anyway....obviously, getting some decent bounces off Tue. a.m. lows....
....remember, we either buy our puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....and, some of the issues listed herein, are from previously suggested newsletters, as I said....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully learn from. none.
(view their patterns to see what aborted Put patterns look like).
(again, I give you all those, so you can view "puts patterns aborted before positions were Hypothetically established" as well, for your learning/benefit)
"health": OXHP, CCLR, LIPO, CNU, TOX,
"in other industry groups": MSN, KEG, BBA, OEA, RBK,
....and, I am also "watching" these, as potential buys, at some point ? MADGF, SYQT, CADA, WKGP, DGSI., IFMX, ISSI., CHIR, BDE, HLX, DGN, DEN, MLR, SFT, LTV, IIR, CS, CY, (as potential basers, or double-bottoms)....again, most are very depr. Techs. (please also see EVB's, below), but, as I intimated, it is just Not a "great" long-side list, here, still, but, more EVB-type bounces likely, dig ?)
....while some depr. Techs ARE good for a shot here, w/close stops as usual, do NOT expect as large rises this time, as when I gave them out late '97/early '98, because they do NOT have bases here, just EVB's....
Important: and/but, also, took these Off pot. long Buy list, before Hypothetically "bt.": CLCDF, CTHR, FPAM, CRUS, QDEK, SYBS, ATML, SEW, HMY, RBK, BGO, APA, CAU, EOG, CDE, RYO, SOC, MU....just Not....they just need more work, first, and/or are making new lows....as I have been saying, a very difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or Puts....but we do NOT "Guess" bottoms....we want only EVB's, set up properly....
....The best Puttable Ind. Groups continue to be among extended Financials, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Media, Consumer, stocks (again, the problem, as I begin my NL here, is that many have already dropped from their highs, and we never "chase" down in puts, once they are down from their highs)....and issues are quickly removed, when/if they break above their potential rolling top formations (as above)....If one properly diversifies, and only does L.T., in-the-money puts, this is rarely a problem....but I do "pull" stocks off lists quickly, when they break the patterns, and you should, too....we will catch plenty of VG puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?).
....note, recent Puttables list is a real mish-mosh, with no real outstanding Industry Group messages....this differs from the situation March/April, when mostly the Health-relateds and the Rails, etc., showed many similarly toppy issues simultaneously....this time, it was/is more broad, dig ? But, I continue to find more Puttables, which says something....read my "essay" on "How to exploit the Downside in Puts" for deeper coverage of this phenomenon, and info. on which Options to buy, how much to pay, etc. (as with calls, and all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).
Since these are my first few NL issues, of many future "Lessons", initially, besides the lessons gleaned from my past commentaries above, and from my 6 (six) "essays/booklets", I think the next Lesson to learn, today, is to recognize, that, often, we can tell where a stock is, in its "PSYCLE sm", by who, is saying what, where, about it, as we can from viewing its chart !!! This is an especially valuable nuance to learn, since, again, most people never view the charts anyway, right ? Plus, many people "say" definitive-sounding things, yet never even ACT on their opinions, yes ? Lots of people "say" things, about items which they don't even own, nor even have any experience with....And other poeple, especially the Media, agendize and/or sensationalize everything, making much of what they say, of little or no "D.U.P.P.V." anyway....When someone with no talent at this, says something huge, near extremes, in a stock or industry group, we can go opposite them, often, and make money, dig ? Then, when/if the charts of the items involved also look like possible tops/bottoms, we ADD that to the decision-making mix, and get even more power on OUR side ! This is recently true among the depr. techs/asian stocks....buying, long, diversified, with close stops, INTO "exhaustive bad news", works so often, because this is the natural, staged sequence of human events....my "PSYCLE sm" is a/the combination or long-existing, repeating patterns, of Physics, and Human Nature, which have worked the same way for eons....just taking advantage of this one nuance, alone, while removing all emotions, can go a long way towards L.T. investing success....
Therefore, as I keep saying, it is better to buy some stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed patterns, and have occasional, small, cut losses, than to never do that at all....Similarly, it is better to TRY some "puts/options" this way, near their highs only, when suitable, than to never do any...."PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves....this is a good thing....Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action, like we had this past Friday/Monday....Note again, I finally added a few depressed "Asians" and Techs, above, in sections (3) and (6), as potential EVB's soon/here. Again, one must also learn to make each investing period independent of past periods' results....another PSY-chological item to master....in other words, just because a certain idea did not work the last time, does Not mean it won't work, the NEXT time it sets up properly....
you must learn to make each purchase/sale, independent of all past actions and experiences....just because you lost last time, in that particular stock, does NOT mean to never trade it again when it sets up properly (one of the many PSY-chological hindrances I solve for you in my "Mastering Psychology" essay). This is a PSY-chological process, as people tend to fear things they are unaware of, have not studied, or know little about....Part of this whole process, is learning to CHANGE some of (y)our possibly incorrect/damaging behaviors/beliefs, to make this a simpler, and more effective way to predict and exploit future stock price moves, more often....so try to enjoy this whole experience....do not expect riches overnite....it takes "some" time, but is certainly worth it....
*** So, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or put, stocks "now", as long as their current prices are right near those given in Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....and, Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable lists, when/if those issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to your "Guide" to my NL, which will have been sent to you soon after you subscribed....obviously, this NL is a "work in process", a true lifetime learning tool for you, and not an "overnite junk NL", and I want to do my best for you....we are just beginning, and you will be receiving a ton of useable, learnable, specific information from here, and in my "essays/booklets", and in future special reports....thanks again, and spread the word.
*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "illiquid" than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15 stocks are "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) if those issues are also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)