1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, following-up, still long, unless otherwise noted):
6) other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent highs Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
My new newsletter (NL), and educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas, for the benefit of the people who are also coming over from it's Previous incarnation, to provide Them with a "seamless" transition, "on the fly", so to speak....and Also, to show YOU, as NEW subcribers, all the Recently/past suggested ideas, which I shared with my followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn. Remember, all my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's....and, eventually, all my "essays".
First, I hope you have at least bought long "something" among the Depressed Techs/Asians/stocks I gave you last week (see section (3) and (6)), with close stops, diversifying a bit, at a minimum, with such recent baby/bathwater/ PSY-chological EVB action....be sure to read my essay on "Exploiting Exhaustion
V Bottoms"....still a nicely "split" market, exploitable in BOTH directions simultaneously, which is a Good thing. For the umpteenth time, "the market" is neither "the averages", nor an important "thing" to even be concerned with.... Any "new high" in the DJIA is going to be UN-confirmed by internals, keep that in mind....after all, who is going to do better: the average person who just "hears" stuff, or "one price of something" or one item reported my the media, or, the person who views every stock pattern WITHIN the market, then chooses the potential best issues to exploit, long and short, based on many long-existing, consistently repeating patterns ?
Again, one important thing to LEARN, is to rise above the "only average person's," 1) illogical fear of buying Puts options near highs, and, 2) the "Media-created" fear-of-buying-near-short-term-lows, and, 3) to at least Buy Long, "something" at an "EVB", like we had last Mon./Tues....whether "you" want to, or not, PSY-chologically, dig ? Looking to buy, Long, at least "something" in depressed stocks, here, where those stocks are right near bases/support (provided those bases/double-bottoms/patterns are intact, and those stocks are Not still hitting new lows) as "the 95 %" remain pretty antsy here, right ? With close stops, being diversified, one really has lower risk doing it this way....it is SUPPOSED to be somewhat uncomfortable/scary to do this, at extremes, yes ? That's one reason why so few people buy Longs near lows, and/or buy Puts near highs.... The pattern/sequence is most always the SAME, each time. (of course, the depressed "Techs" may provide better "bouncer" potential S.T. here, than some of the others suggested, but they are all similarly positioned regardless>. As I said in last Monday's NL, you gotta have Bought long, "some things" among the depressed issues I have given out, with close stops.
As I seem to have been, again, among the very few to have called the S.T. bottom in Techs, Mon. the 15th, the Depr. Techs we DO want, are those which have Not gone to new lows recently, yet still retain their bases, or their double- bottom patterns, and/or, those that have high-volume, cathartic, "Exhaustion V Bottoms", like existed recently, into/with such negativeness around....You must try to have the PSY-chological strength to dip your toes into the "Long-side" water, with close stops, right near some EVB's, a bit.
The extended Puttable issues we want, still show the rolling top pattern
I am known for discovering/teaching, and still have the potential to drop, towards their 200 DMA's at least....Some have S.T. "hook" tops, others have the "rolling/ umbrella top" I am known for finding....Use this initial NL period, to LEARN as much as you can about my "PSYCLE sm", also read All my booklets/essays, and view/learn their patterns....therefore,
KEY: This is still a nicely "SPLIT" market, providing both, long and short opportunities, simultaneously, for all types of traders/investors. So, "pick your potion(s)," long and/or short side, for your different accounts/needs. If you have never done Puts, this has been the time to learn how to do so, from me, using my "booklet/essay" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for the next S.T. top.
a) Fri. 6/26, two huge B-firms put out "new buys" on J.B.Hunt (JBHT), it is now over $ 34....please go back and view its 2-year-past chart pattern, and see where we really did buy it, in its depressed base, around $ 13-14., late 1996/early 1997, see it ? Also, view YELL from back then. (I hope to create a "buying depressed bases longer-term" essay soon, along with an "Options, specifically, the Psycle Way", and, "PSYCLE Timing via Insider Activities"....these very valuable booklets took a lot of time to create). Anyway, again, we see how Wall St. NEVER buys my stocks near their lows....they ONLY recommend them AFTER they are way UP from lows....where would YOU rather buy ? I.G.R. Note: when I had JBHT, I also had Rollins (RLC), and YELL, and even Ryder was a trade from then....in the "trucking" ind. group, dig ? I was, at the time, as usual, the first/only guy around, to even be considering "trucking" stocks....I hope you are getting more comfortable with going the opposite of
"the 95 %", when patterns emerge like this.
b) You should know how much I destest "just buying for possible takeovers", but I had to mention two of my very depressed stocks, FTPS now 1 1/2, just got a pot. t/o, at 2 1/4 ? and, RFP at 2 1/2, got a pot. t/o, at 4 1/8 ? These are public announcements, which I view these as "too good to be easily true", but they may be worth looking into, as such, long-side, over the next few months when/if they become completed mergers, in aa few months hence ? obviously a risky proposition, but may be interesting, as cheapies, with close stops ?
c) Thursday, now, I hear on CNBC/CNN, that (quote) "officially, the El Nino" is over" (end quote), ushering in, supposedly, the new, "La Nina", a supposedly "colder" temp. effect (i.e., supposedly, "having the opposite effect of El Nino"). O.K., once and for all, the former had little or no effect on even commodities prices, meteorologists were of little help, and stocks prices were unaffected to any predictable degree-- so we can safely assume the same "non-directly-take-advantageable" effect, with "La Nina", as well, dig ? Again, I am NOT talking about weather affecting (y)our homes/living/land/businesses, here....I am talking about the futility and waste of time, trying to somehow "scenarioize/link" future indivdual stock/commodity prices moves to any "weather". ..I'm sure, just as with every "item/story" in the past 20 years, the "advertising crooks" will take millions of dollars from unenlightenend people, selling/pitching incorrect "La Nina" scenarios to the masses through their ads and pitches, yes ? (I teach how to use that stuff, to your advantage, in my essays on "Media" and "Scenarios/ Linkages", which you really should read). The "PSYCLE sm" point: for now, ignore it....
d) again, while I rarely employ "fundamentals", the recent potential bottoms forming in many depr. "basic industries" stocks (see section (6) below, and the "Lesson" at the end) has gotta mean something, in the big scheme of things....It also means Interest Rates may be ending their decline, ahead, especially with the action of the Financials and Utilities, and R.E., yes ? This is, of course, the opp. of what "the 95 %" are saying. And, some depr. commodities may be popping soon ?
New Longs: CTU @ 5 13/16, PNF @ 2 11/16, BDE @ 2 7/16, PTEK @ 8,
SIII. @ 5.06, SFT @ 1 11/16, LTV @ 9 1/2, CY @ 7 3/4, ELY @ 19 1/8, KLB @ 3 3/4, BMC @ 8-, VSH @ 18, CCH @ 5/16....be sure to read the "EVB essay" I offer...it is very inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for learning timing.... oh, also, note, besides Depr. Techs, the recent potential long Buys list, is a mish-mosh, with no other real clear "industry Group Rotation" signals, yet....maybe, also when/if some Energy, Prec. Metals, Basic Inds., Cyclicals, Alums., Copper, Steels, issues hold down here ? Remember, part of the "PSYCLE sm" has always, been, that, when
I am correct, I will often be among the very few, or first, to "see" potentially emerging/ deteriorating issues/groups.... Usually, I find several IGR issues to exploit, but Not here....no biggie, though, since we'll just buy individual issues regardless....(and some Puts, yes ?) as I teach in my "essay/booklet" on I.G.R., we don't "have" to have clear I.G.'s, when so many individual depr. issues have completed short-term EVB's anyway, etc. But, learn this: often, one or two issues in a depr. I.G. will set up, first, then, others in that I.G. will folow, over time, so I do watch for that, ahead....it's just, that, obviously, when several in one I.G. set up, we have more "power".
New Puts: TEF @ 140+, NTAP @ 37+, TWMC @ 40, SNPS @ 46-, TCAT @ 62,
DST @ 57-, ZLC @ 32-, CVS @ 39+, MYL @ 32+, BLS @ 69, FNF @ 38 1/2, SVM @ 34+, STB @ 63-,.
and/but, took, RAL, TRB, CEN, off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted patterns immediately. Important: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested "put" stock will break its S.T. umbrella top pattern....I am assuming, if you View it's recent chart/action, before you consider buying any Puts, you will see/know this, and therefore NOT buy that company's puts....this takes 10 seconds to do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort patterns....just trying to help....
....and/but, just Missed, BOOL, PMCS, ITW, as puts, near recent highs, and, BROD, MCHP, PRG, CUM, AA, as longs, near recent "EVB" lows, among recently given out stocks.... check their patterns also, if you'd like, to learn, for the next time....I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" their patterns, for your benefit/education....obviously, recent "SOLDS/completed trades/results/ actions" have been skewed towards the Puts side....the idea is to learn the patterns of previously done ideas, for the future....as I said, many "Techs", and Asians, and Metals, WILL bottom ahead, and we will be there when they form better bases/"EVB's", but for some, just Not yet....we already have seen some, right ? As I said, it may still continue rough for a while yet, in those long-siders. Again, while the Media "worries" about "earnings" impacts of crises, the STOCKS involved will likely BOTTOM, even as lower financials are announced, right ? We'll be watching for this ahead....small, cut losses will not hurt us regardless.
note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength"....("S") means Sell it (t)here....
and/or are sales on strength ("ms/sos") :
5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions :
(issues moving since last time, following-up, still in Puts, unless otherwise noted):
(note: ("sow") means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support")
* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): TCAT -1 3/8, MHK -1 1/4, NTAP, SNPS, TEF, FRO, BBK, ASGN, STD, FISV, COFI., AGI., SOTR, CTAS, SPOT, TCAT, ZBRA, ISYS, GPSI., DNB, TLC, FNV, TEF, ZLC, AWA, LCI., IHS, HB, CI, DL....if you did not buy Puts in these, in this section, near their recent highs, you do not necessarily have to view their charts, unless you want to view their charts anyway....obviously, getting some bounces off recent lows....
....remember, we either buy our puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....and, some of the issues listed herein, are from previously suggested newsletters, as I said....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully learn from. (see recent past NL's here) took, TRB, RAL, CEN, off, before "put". (view their patterns to see what aborted Put patterns look like).
(again, I give you those, so you can view "puts patterns aborted before positions were Hypothetically established" as well, for your learning/benefit) i.e., view MAY, how it formed a nice rolling top, but late last week's pop over 65-66 area, broke the pattern, see it ? since initially would have had L.T. 65s puts, was a small loss of no consequence, but good to view as a learning illustration....
"techs": VSH, SGI., IIR, CS,
"health": OXHP, LIPO, TOX, NVX, CTU
"in other industry groups": none really super clear yet here, though, more depr. Prec. Metals, Fertilizer, Energies, Basic Inds., Cyclicals, Papers, Steels, Coppers, improving technically....a potentially big occurance....
....and, I am also "watching" these, as potential buys, at some point ?: MADGF, SMOD, NETM, WKGP, DGSI., ISSI., ICST, BDE, DGN, KLB, DEN, MLR, RFP, SFT, BDE, CAU, LTV, BGO, (as potential basers, or double-bottoms)....again, most are very depr. Techs. (please also see EVB's, below), but, as I intimated, it is just Not a "great" long-side list, here, still, but, more EVB-type bounces likely)
....while some depr. Techs ARE good for a shot here, w/close stops as usual, do NOT expect as large rises this time, as when I gave them out late '97/early '98, because they do NOT have bases here, just good EVB's, as with the "Asians".
Important: and/but, also, took these Off pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": none--- but see 2nd section of "EVB's", below).... They just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows.... as I have been saying, a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or Puts....but we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST see the cathartic/high volume".
(and also watching -- and this list is also growing, dig ? --- CUBE, CYMI., QNTM, PAIR, ELCO, KMAG, ADPT, RMDY, RDRT, DURA, IDTI., GEN, PHV, ONC, MPP, WCS, AHG, IKN, N., but Not just yet, as they need more work, technically) (also note, still more depr. Techs, and Asian-orienteds, and, as I say elsewhere, more "Basic Industries") We shall see, and/but Only "if and when" these "set up" properly, technically, as buys, at some point (with the required high-volume catharsis, etc.)....but I am watching these all....but some are Not ready quite yet.... especially those still hitting new lows, as I said above ! Also, note, how MARG, BROD, PHYC, REGI., PHV, IKN, join, CLCX, RMDY, DURA, PSSI., GEN, as already being UP a bit, off their recent-past-given EVB's, as I predicted in my "essay" "How to take advantage of Big Down Gaps and EVB's, on the Long Side" (read it to learn the valuable pattern), and in my recent past NL's here, which teaches you how to do this, and shows examples of such chart patterns....this concept of mine really has worked well, very often, in recent years past....so, DO note the growing list of potential EVB's....this is logical, after market drops like we just had, yes ? please realize, as good as I and my "PSYCLE sm" have been at these EVB's, we never purport to be able to catch "THE" bottom on anything/everything....as I teach,
we just try to "get close", always diversifying, with close stops, not overpaying for options in portfolios, where suitable, L.T., in-the-money only, etc. Remember, these are still likely to be 2-3-4- month trades....
and/But, Not yet, in, RAL, TRB, CEN (also see recent past names) taken off pot. Put list....The best Puttable Ind. Groups continue to be among extended Financials, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Media, Consumer, stocks (again, the problem, as I said, is that many have already dropped from their highs, and we never "chase" down in puts, once they are down from their highs), and, now, also Add, some extended Drug stocks again, Blue Chips, and Utilities on strength ? Again, issues are quickly removed, when/if they break above their potential rolling top formations (as above)....If one properly diversifies, and only does L.T., in-the-money puts, this is rarely a problem....as you can see, I do "pull" stocks off lists quickly, when they break the patterns, and you should, too....we will catch plenty more VG puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?)
....note, recent Puttables list is a real mish-mosh, with few real outstanding Industry Group messages....this differs from the situation March/April, when mostly the Health-relateds and the Rails, etc., showed many similarly toppy issues simultaneously....My removing many from the pot. puts list here, means something, yes ? it means "the market" (and you know how much I hate that term) might be bit stronger S.T. Read my "essay" on "How to exploit the Downside in Puts" for deeper coverage of this phenomenon, and info. on which Options to buy, the Patterns, etc. (as with calls, and all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).
Besides the lessons gleaned from all my past commentaries above, and from my (six) "essays/booklets", I think the next Lesson to learn, today, is, how to recognize a possible "bigger picture" emerging here, as I teach in my using "Media" messages and "Scenarios" essays; with the depr. "Basics", Health, Tech, Asian inds. possibly forming S.T. bottoms, vs. the extended Financial/Consumer/ Computer/Utility stocks, forming possible double-tops here, a real tug-of-war, but still, leaning towards the upside overall, so far....well, you know what I am going to say to do: buy the depr. ones, and look for Puts one extended ones.... the Lesson, is to look beyond the "reported" junk, and actually "SEE" what is really going on WITHIN the markets, WITHOUT making economic/financial scenarios or stories....obviously, the higher-priced issues of the latter group, move the "indexes", while the lower-priced issues of the former group are less "market stocks", anyway. Also, with most interest-sensitive groups more toppy, this all suggests higher rates sooner than later, the topping of many R.E. locations (like I recently predicted), and, in lock-step, the possibility of a pop in some depr. commodities, yes ? We shall see if this Lesson (act on what the charts say, vs. the reported news) is a good one....
And, therefore, it is still better to buy some stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed/EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's, and have occasional, small, cut losses, than to never do that at all.. Because, historically, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, if one properly Diversifies.... Similarly, it is better to TRY some "puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to never do any....remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves....this is a Good thing....Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action, like we had recently with the Techs/Asians. The Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story".... Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is no "sexiness" in stocks/groups near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", after they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is too late....
*** So, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or put, stocks "now", as long as their current prices are right near those given in Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....and, Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable lists, when/if those issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to your "Guide" to my NL, which will have been sent to you soon after you subscribed....obviously, this NL is a "work in process", a true lifetime learning tool for you, and not an "overnite junk NL", and I want to do my best for you....we are just beginning, and you will be receiving a ton of useable, learnable, specific information from here, and in my "essays/booklets", and in future special reports....thanks again, and spread the word.
*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "illiquid" than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) if those issues are also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)