1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Welcome....I am "beginning" my new newsletter (NL), and educational services, as a "continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas for the benefit of the many valued people who are also coming over from it's previous incarnation, to provide them with a "seamless" transition, and also, to show you NEW subcribers, recent/past suggested ideas, which you can then view the recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see/learn" what we are trying to accomplish here....to further help you learn.

In my recent past output, I had/have been among the very few, actually recommending more PUTS, especially in the extended Financials, Blue Chips/names, Health, Techs, ind. groups....remember, initial downside targets for most Puttables, are generally, near their still-rising, 200 day MA's....most all S.T. tops/declines evolve similarly, in 3 phases: first, fewer toppy issues correct a bit, the Media barely reports it as a hiccup, almost nobody had predicted the initial decline, and only a few ind. groups (in April, it was mostly the Health-relateds, like, AGPH, INCY, GNCI., IDPH, INVX, IMNX, RXSD, MEDI., MRK, GDT, SYB, UNH, PNU, UHS, BSX, PFE, AHP, MDT, LLY, FRX, IHS, ICN, all which I did give out in March/April as Puts, near their highs, for mostly nice, quick (Q) drops-- a few broke out for Q, small losses, view their charts-- then I recommended to get out of many of their puts) Decline....Then, second, it Spreads, to, more recently, as you see, some more, extended Financials, like, Banks, Insurance, Brokers, Real-estate (note, some housing stocks FELL, even as housing prices themselves ROSE, get it ?), Retails, Trans./R.R., and, now, some "Comp./Techs.", Internets/Communications, and Blue Chips, Consumer issues, falling....all in Industry Group Rotation (IGR), as I teach....

Of course, when a "group" shows several toppy patterns/stocks within, the likelihood of their move, together, increases, right ? I had previously been early on the Financial issues as Puts, and just missed exploiting some Airlines as Puts near their highs (but was the onyl/first, to give the "railroads" (R.R.'s) as puttables near their recent top formations, but, as I teach, just because a group/idea doesn't work once/the first time, does not prevent us from exploiting it again, when again sets up properly. "PSYCLE sm" traders have NO emotional baggage....learn this....

Anyway, after some bounces from here, there may be still more puttables....also note, how, now, after many short-term (S.T.) drops, only now, the Media has "discovered" a "potential" decline--late, as usual, only this past week....this is as I teach in my "essays", how "the Media", and "the 95 %", tend to only "discover/realize" things, AFTER they have already occured to an extent, right ?

Remember, the great majority of the time, we don't really care what any "indexes" are doing, because that is often a trap, especially at extremes....in March, I began seeing/reporting the first negative nonconfirmations appear, in the advance/decline line (nyse cumulative daily level, had fallen back to where it was late Jan. 1998, yet "indexes" themselves were not falling enuf, yet, dig ?), worse "new Highs/Lows" numbers, and the OTC's, and fewer and fewer stocks were "holding things up," if you catch my drift....see, if one only followed the "indexes", one missed this decline, as usual, for most people....you gotta view many Individual stocks charts, to "see" the patterns/ind. groups deteriorating in March/April.... also, it seemed everyone in the press still had the same, "things are very strong in our economy, the fed won't increase interest rates, we see no problems for the forseeable future"-type comments, that often indicates a pending correction, PSY-chologically, reading the "media messages" as we learn to do, when the internals deteriorate as they were doing....and, while, as I said, I never trade Index Options, note the beautiful S.T. umbrella tops in many indexes anyway, then....neat.

Again, realize, the bulk of this initial "PSYCLE stage" of this rolling decline, occured early Monday the 1st, and Tues. the 2nd....some oscillators reached S.T. oversold readings, as I have intimated herein....some issues and indexes are already down to necklines of H & S formations--too obvious there-- remember, "PSYCLE sm" traders are NOT overnite/day traders....our general holding period is at least several weeks, or a few months, so you do NOT want to be hanging on every little move in indexes, which is, again, one reason why we Rarely watch them....NO emotion, No "news", right ? But, this time, from March/April, everything Was in synch, S.T., for a S.T. drop, (which has been rare, since the 1987 crash. Most every drop since then, has stopped at the bottom of H & S formations, with confirmed new lows, yet, then higher again....but, as I predicted early in 1998, this year might not be as easy, for trying to buy high-relative strength, big-name stocks, as longs, which as you know, "we" never do anyway....)

Note also, that the Media has been overreporting lately the "S.E. Asia crisis" again (its always "something"), which provides the "fear," which should keep most people from Buying, Long, some depressed Techs., when they DO bottom, down the road, (and they will), dig ? Some depressed techs already have had some V.S.T. (very-short-term) support-bounces just from Tuesday's lows....As a "lark" only,I am watching TLK (Indonesia Telecom, dig ?) which I also had given correctly S.T., in Jan. 98, in a similar "news/fear" pattern, as a pot. double-bottom pot. S.T. trade, here, with a close stop ? ---and, I really did give out PFE as a "PSYCLE sm" Put, the day after another guy who knows from nothing, who has never bought a stock in his life, called me, at $ 117., giddy at its prospects, get it ? Phone calls like that are often a perfect contrary sell/short signal, on a semi- parabolic stock, right ? Learn, also, that each S.T. "market" correction has "hook" stories/items, at tops, and this time, it was, 1) the Drugs, 2) the Internets, and, 3) too many mergers and stock splits....

Also note, I did Not become bullish on the "Golds" again, in Feb./Mar., as their patterns did NOT show attractiveness....we do NOT "link" golds to "the market", as the "most often wrong gold bugs" have and do....Heck, we just had another of the exact types of "crises" goldbugs pray for, right ? yet, the Gold stocks have FALLEN (I love when this happens....the one-note-goldbugs and all).... and, I did indeed give out the extended Oils./Svcs. issues as Puttables, last winter, when everyone incorrectly loved them...but have also, since, correctly, NOT yet become bullish on them....interesting, their "earnings" continue to rise, yet their "stocks" are still lower....so, will remain rough a mite longer, from the long side, with bounces off oversold levels for some issues....

Last, I also have had a few disappointing, rare, breaks in some Long-siders, like, VIAS, TRID, APM, WFR, IRF, CS, among depressed Techs....such is life....and, I am still recommending holding above-avg. cash balances with good-sized accounts. Do NOT become emotional/scared here, nor "try to guess bottoms on issues still making new lows"....Let the decliners bottom, base, or reach support levels, first ...and, as for Puts, sell those which fall to their 200 DMA's, or below, for quick, nice % gains-- and look to buy more Puts, on further rallies towards highs, on issues herein which still show extended/umbrella top patterns.... And realize, that this whole Asian thing, should play out, as all previous "crises" have, like, Japan, Mexico, Canada, Silicon Valley, Russia, Middle East, etc., in recent past years. Our Eliminating emotional reactions, properly Diversifying, with stops, will protect us, regardless....do not be in a rush to do anything, nor "stretch," to "create" "wishful" trades, when the stock pattern is just not ready yet, dig ? It's all PSY-chology, and historical pattern recognition....

Remember, for instance, when Intel was 100., and I could not get my people to sell it, and everyone was saying, that, "because their "PE" was so "low", the stock was still "cheap" (and/or, "it is still going to be a leader/good compnay, in the long run"--- read my "essays" about that rationalization) as I teach, that way of thought is detrimental....well, at, now, at 67. recently, Intel is even cheaper, yes ? so, that "supposed Link" was wrong, as usual....read my "essay" on "linkages/scenarios"....

also, note that, since 1994, many "Techs" stocks have roughly tended to: bottom in previous Dec., then rally into following March/April, then correct into Summer, than rally again into Fall, then correct into Winter, have you noticed ? Just thought you'd like to know that pattern....Have you been taking advantage of that "PSYCLE sm" pattern in recent years ? At every top, everybody loves them, and every bottom is accompanied by "Asia is terrible", dig ? hence, we look to pick up some bargains down here soon, INTO "the bad news", yes ? (with stops).

Conclusion: it may now be a bit "too late" to "begin" buying many puts here, because so many stocks are off their highs decently already, and/or approaching their 200 day MA's supports....but, if you do see any puttables in section (3) or (7) issues which are still IN their rolling top formations, near their highs, and/or after pops up towards those levels, go right ahead, with stops, only diversified, Only L.T., in-the-money puts, etc. Use this initial NL period, to LEARN as much as you can about my "PSYCLE sm", read all the booklets/essays, and view/learn the patterns....

2) "What's been said, and What I've read":
I hear guys on CNBC now talking about "places to hide" during a correction (but only saying that, After the correction, dig ?), mentioning, as they always do in times like this, things like, Utilities, REIT's, and big-name issues, with "high" yields (yeah, right....like a 3 % dividend is somehow "high" ? and/or going to somehow "protect" anyone's positions ? I think not.). But, also notice, they NEVER mention actually buying PUTS properly, do they ? hmmmm.... and, they also NEVER tell you when to sell, do they ? Well, if they never help you, why listen to them at all, dig ? When/if I begin hearing the "no need to sell/have sold anything....in the long run, we like the market/company" lines, as I heard March/April, look out, short-term at least....and, on Wed., I actually heard CNBC "creating" a non-existant story (read my "essays" on Scenarios, and Media), saying, "DELL has been slammed, down 14 points off its high....is it a real value here in the mid-80's ?" Seriously, that's what was reported....gang, DELL was only a "real value" under $ 10., in stage 1 of its "PSYCLE sm", period....also, a 14 points drop, on a $ 95. stock, is NOT "slammed", is it....Please try to learn about (and ignore) the "Words" reporters use (covered in my Scenarios, and Media, and Mastering Psychology "essays") which lead "the 95 %" to emote improperly, and act, when they should not....When the Media "creates" stories where none exist, it wastes everyone's resources and time....IGNORE them....
Also, note, how "the 95 %" generally tend to "Link" expected moves in "Transportation" stocks, to the price of Energy/Oil, yes ? Well, we have had Oil prices lower, yet many Trans./R.R. stocks also falling simultaneously (as I also predicted) right ? (please view charts of, those I gave out, like, CSX, BNI., and Ryder, from Sep. 1997, down to their 200 DMA's, and out...and then, again, more recently, ABF and CNI., from their "PSYCLE sm" top formations, down so far, to below their 200 DMA's....see it ?), rendering, that "supposed" "link" useless, as usual....When I hear/read more/new items germain to teaching you better timing, I will have much more stuff to share in this section, over time. Just try to glean my thought process/concept, over time.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
(always remember to view 1-year-at-least past charts of everything you can view) (Q = quick; i.e, less than a month holding period....re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the % gains I show herein, on assumed closed-out trades, and also try to view their charts)