1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, following-up, still long, unless otherwise noted):
6) other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent highs Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
My new newsletter (NL), and educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas, for the benefit of the people who are also coming over from it's Previous incarnation, to also provide Them with a "seamless" transition, "on the fly", so to speak....and Also, to show YOU, as NEW subcribers, all the Recently/past suggested ideas, which I shared with my L.T. followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn. Remember, all my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's....and, eventually, all my "essays".
Remember, I am pretty Comprehensive, herein....Know, that there are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed: a) Stocks that can be taken advantage here and now, if right near given prices, b) Stocks which, if they get back to where they were whwn originally suggested, remain/become tradeable again, and, c) Stocks which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and might also illustrate Industry Groups potentially shaping up, as Educational ideas....Try to "view" the past 1-year back charts of all ideas, for best learning of patterns....
all ideas are followed up till "removed" or "sold", for your benefit.
FIRST: IMPORTANT--- until further notice, the URL to get all future NL's, will be, first, "the URL for my main web page", then add, each successive time, as a "suffix", forward slash, that date, then "letter.html", ok ?, as in,
" /7998letter.html ", then, " /71398letter.html ", " /71698letter.html ", etc., got that ? every Mon., and Thu., after 11 am, PST, (2 pm, EST), for now.... Hope this helps....obviously, only subscribers will get this, and, down the road, I am examining changing this format, so non-subscribers cannot figure this out, etc. Gleaning the message is much more important then the medium, yes ?
second: Please appreciate, that I work very long and hard, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit.... again, the "most actionables, now/here", are in section (3) each NL....
third, hope you notice, I put more actual "learning items" into last NL, which, I think, was my best so far overall....re-read it....some Interesting/ puzzling pullbacks among depresseds, all day Friday 10th....remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those stocks remain aok....
This is still a "Split" market, exploitable in BOTH directions simultaneously, which is a Good thing (and/but, more Longs, than Puts, still,
dig ?). But a bit "sloppy' right here, so still playing close to the vest.... For the umpteenth time, "the market" is neither "the averages", nor an important "thing" to even be concerned with....Important: Remember, Any "new highs" in the DJIA/OTC itself, and/or other "indexes", are going to be UN-confirmed by the internals (A/D, and H/L figures), so keep that in mind....Also, please do Not let any "Q, S, cut losses" among Puttables (or Longs) recently, prevent you from taking advantage of present/future ideas....just a couple of bigger winners (some of which I have already given here, and will continue to give over time) will more than overcome a few very small cut losses among Puts/Longs, in the meantime....the Key, is not to quit prematurely, stay with the concept, learn the basic patterns, be patient, we have just started, and DO "something", diversified, w/close stops, which best fits your various situational accounts needs....Use this initial NL period, to LEARN as much as you can about my "PSYCLE sm", also read All my booklets/essays, and view/learn their patterns. Important: key: remember, all suggested ideas REMAIN buys near lows, or puts near highs, (only) as long as their patterns do remain intact, even if weeks or months pass !!!
So, "pick your potion(s)," long and/or short side, cash/margin, or only L.T., in-the-money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you have never done Puts, this has been the time to Learn how to do so, using my "booklet/essay" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. top, which may best exist in the early Fall ?)
a) as to "Energy/Service" issues: as I have been among the very few around, saying, for months now, since giving many Oils and Oil. Svcs. as "PSYCLE sm" puts, last winter, most Energy issues are STILL, not yet positioned technically for much....they still remain mostly, stage 5 or, more likely, stage 6, ideas....as, SDC, NBR, TDW, UTI., BHI., BOI., DO, etc., made new lows again last week....and already removed others previously here....and ARC/CHV/ XON/FEN/EY, show me nothing. NOT yet, stage 1 bottoms, dig ? Yet many people insist on "having to buy/hold these, all the way down", in a similar fashion to how some people "have to keep trying to play the precious metals stocks", as if they have some "Scenario Vendetta" (read my booklets on that subject, and the one on mastering PSYchology and you Emotional problems), and they keep trying to "guess" at bottoms, to the exclusion of other industry groups....they then miss other explotable ideas, yes ? because the Energy Ind. is so pervasive, and there are so many stocks available, many people are always following them, like with the "golds", even when they show nothing chart-wise....My time is at a premium, so I prefer to wait for better patterns to form, before I expend any time on them. Any pops in Energies, from here, will be of an "artificial" nature, that is, without great patterns preceding them, dig ? until those patterns do form, when, I will alert you anyway, at that time.
b) Other recent Industry Group Comments: took all "Papers" and "Coppers" off the pot. buy list, as none set up properly Yet....But--- am NOW watching more depressed "Farming- Fertilizer -related" stocks (see below, section (6)), which has gotta mean something better for them, ahead....several are potential double- bottoms, and, again, I am the first/only guy around considering these issues.... remember, it may be early, just watching them, but interested....also interesting, that many Chemical stocks are falling, WITH energies, lately....And, following-up EGGS, mentioned last time here, hit 27. today, wow....important: its rise has certainly NOT been "directly due to fundamental stuff", but, more, its L.T. technicals, reverse Sentiment, and "catch up" parabolic rise, as I explain in my booklet on Ind. Group Rotation....if one is long EGGS, one really, as with KLB, must get out, here, regardless, right ?
c) The Fed. Reserve Bk. of St. Louis, Monetary Trends, June 1998 issue: Saw a beautiful chart, since the year 1870 (!!!), of the S % P 500 index's, PE ratio, each January....besides a few big swings, from 5 PE, to 25 PE, back and forth, once again, I still found absolutely NO correlations, betweeen any PE values, and any future S & P stock index movements....there has been NO way, ever, to predict future stock prices, just using PE ratios....PE's are base on totally subjective numbers, are normally "past/hindsight" numbers, and have so many exceptions and "weirdness" surrounding them (read my booklet on "Media" items), just please learn to IGNORE all PE "stuff", and you'll be a lot better off, as
I teach....Varying PE levels have had different meanings, results, and patterns, and the whole exercise is a collosal waste of valuable time. Different combinations of high/low PE/S & P levels, have had different results thereafter, with NO exploitable patterns, period. My "PSYCLE sm" beliefs get validated yet again, with this chart.
d) Orange County Register, 7/8/98: article entitled, "Takeover optimism boosts Bergen Brunswig": showing very small % point rises in these 4 stocks, but reporting this as "big rises"....the "PSYCLE sm" point/lesson, involves, how, ONLY AFTER the stocks involved in these kinds of takeovers, does the Media report things as "positive" for those company's stocks....way, way too late....they then report, again, with "misleading Words", how BBC, MCK, CAH, AAS (the 4 companies involved) rising only 1 or 2 points each, as somehow a "big item", when each of these stocks is already selling at $ 53, 90, 100, and 74, a share, making "just a 1 or 2 point rise", very SMALL, percentage-wise; making such small-in-reality rises meaningless, and making their whole article useless, see ? If the Media had predicted the future rises of these stocks, 1 or 2 years ago, at much lower prices, that would have been much more valuable, yes ? But they didn't....in fact Wall St. had a death-knell for all the hospital/health/HMO stocks, 2-3 years ago, near their lows, yes ? All these articles written about these potential mergers, yet the stocks are already way up, and unlikely to be worth "beginning to buy up here", dig ? A similar article, L.A. Times, 7/4/98: involving the ATT/TCI. merger , quoted one man saying, how, "the same investors/institutions who wouldn't touch TCI. at $ 11. a share early in 1997, were happy to pay $ 44. at the stock's intraday peak last week." Normal. I think it is real valuable, to learn what 95 % of "items" are, and are not, worth letting into your "trading decisions side of our brain", as Not of "D.U.F.P.P.V." I have always said, if these people are supposed to be so smart, how come they end up paying all-time high prices in takeovers ? Why didn't they just accumulate these stocks near their lows ?
e) I was again, the first/only, to mention, late stage 3/early stage 4 sentiment/behavior among extended Retail issues, and, Thu./Fri., Sears, JCP, Nordstrom, Kmart, down already....note, they were NOT "perfect PSYCLE sm" top formations (I did not even recommend them as puts, right ?), but this, again, illustrates the power of "too bullish analysts" signals, and, therefore, S.T. drops coming, right ?)....and, many extended Financial, Interest-Rate-Sensitives, and Utilities, are also, still more toppy than neutral here....look beyond the recent past....imagine these issues falling, as interest-rates actually pop a little at some point....
f) in continuing your Education on "PSYCLE sm" patterns, in general, since it applies to ALL items, I got a "potential stage 4 top" signal in, dare I mention it, "Beanie Babies"....their stage 2 top, was last Xmas, and, similar to the tops I actually caught/predicted, in Sports Cards, Cabbage Patch Dolls, and then "POG's", in the 1990's....anyway, seriously, the "collector book-writing B.B. lady" was on talk shows Thu. 9th, and on CNBC (a beautiful late stage 4 sign, dig ?), and---this is classic --- she actually said, (quote) "we see absolutely no end to the continual rise in prices of B.B.'s, in sight....there is a continual stream of new B.B. collectors, to fuel demand for the foreseeable future...." WOW ! Get it ? Perfect stage 4 behavior, yes ? I love it....and, 7/11, even Dave Barry's column was on "B.B."....actually, not only will the "late buyers" end up holding the bag (as usual), many kids will either lose money, get too greedy (like their parents, ?), or learn nothing of value from their B.B. experience, especially if/when they lose their money on B.B.'s....For another imminent top sign, check the "classified ads" sections, of any big-city newspaper. The pattern is almost always the same...the question is, can YOU get closer to timing, then acting, to take advantage of the normal, sequential "sentiment" signals, each time an "item" tops/bottoms....hopefully, I have helped.....'nuff said....
g) some happy subscribers asked why, since I "called/caught" the recent TOP in Internet issues Monday, why I did not formally recommend some as Puttables Monday, even though I did specifically mention the 4 big names....reason: their puts options premiums, generally, were ridiculously high, even allowing for the price drops we have had since my signal....also, I'd like to see more of a rounding top pattern, vs. just a one-day reversal, which, even I am not perfect at catching that moment...I guess I am just more interested in stocks with more easily- employable/teachable Ind. Group Patterns....the "sentiment" pattern was perfect, of course, S.T., but pulling the trigger, in a twice-weekly NL, where YOU have the ability to "do it at that moment", not as easy....whereas, most other suggested issues are, and have been, easuily exploiable in fact", at those prices....last, I did have 2 people tell me they WERE able to buy puts/short sell 2 internet stocks from my signal, successfully, so far, but, keep in mind, even as these issues fall, they first, will have a stage 5 initial support, around their previously- broken-up-above prices (as I teach in the historical examples from my "Downside" booklet I hope you read), even when/if they fall in 2 or 3 normal stages....
and, while we still continue to give you a bunch of large % Puts Gains, even into a non-bearish market, our bunch of Puts losses have been each VERY small, as usual, by actually Viewing all past-year chart patterns on "Hypothetical completed" trades, you will hopefully "see" what we are looking for, to exploit, for probable declines....Remember, we "PSYCLE sm" traders have NO emotions, especially where cutting Q, Small losses are concerned....I hope you appreciate that these very quick, very small losses we have taken are of no consequence, in the big picture....financially nor psychologically....You can always also go back and view "completed" trades from previous NL's, to "see/learn" more, and this also illustrates why one must Diversify, buying at least a Few suggested ideas, at all times, right ? we are in this for the long haul....this keeps you in the game, for when those big gainers occur for us...."just get close", as I teach.
New Longs: OXHP @ 14 11/16, KMET @ 13+, RFP @ 2 5/8, CCH @ 5/16,
TOX @ 5/16, MT @ 25+, ELCO @ 3 9/16, CCC @ 10 3/8, SHVA @ 8 1/8,
UBS @ 8, SMSC @ 8 9/16, OLGC @ 4 11/16, FTPS @ 1 9/16, KLAC @ 26+,
OWN @14+, DIMD @ 6+, IDTI. @ 7.06, EX @ 17+, LQ @ 9-....and, important: took,
TOY, FCX, GFI., BGO, SFT, VC off pot. Long buys list, before "bt."....
Important: note, I try to give "something for every type of objective",
i.e., including real cheapies, and $ 5-10. stocks, and "names"/blue chips,
straight cash stocks, marginables, optionables, etc., so all my valued
subscribers have choices, and for proper Diversification ---all still having
similar exploitable patterns, in each NL.
Important: unless issues are listed specifically in section (3) in a NL, they may NOT be buys right here....remember, a valuable part of the "process", is that we have "actionable right near here now" stocks (section (3)), and also, "watching for hopefully becoming ready to buy near lows in their depressed patterns soon" stocks (section (6)....One is for Now, one is for soon/later and learning....be sure to read the "BDG/EVB essay" (and all 6 booklets) offered.... very inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for learning timing/patterns....oh, also, note, besides a bunch of Depr. Techs, the recent potential long Buys list, while growing, is a real mish-mosh, with few other real clear "industry Group Rotation" signals, yet....except, maybe, as some Prec. Metals, Basic Inds., Cyclicals, Alums., Copper, Fert., Steels, Papers, Energies/Service, issues hold their recent EVB lows down here (see below) ? But many of those still need "work" technically, though, so am watching them, for when they set up better....
Remember, part of the "PSYCLE sm" has always, been, that, when I am correct, I will often be among the very few, or even the first, to "see" potentially emerging/deteriorating issues/groups....and No One Else is even remotely mentioning the type of depr. stocks I.G.'s, I am, as potential longs yet, dig ? Usually, I am able to find several I.G.R. issues to exploit, like the "Basic industries" and "depr. techs" and "healths"....regardless, we'll still also buy other individual issues Long, even if not in I.G.'s where others look the same (and some Puts, yes ?)....read my booklet on "I.G.R." again....I just do not want you looking back, 3-5 months from now, wishing you had had the emotional/PSY- chological strength to buy some of these EVB's Long, diversifying, w/close stops anyway, for protection.
New Puts: SKYT @ 25-, TEF @ 146, RCOT @ 35, USTC @ 76, GPSI. @ 39+,
LHSG @ 66-, TCAT @ 60+, CBSL @ 37+, FRED @ 26-, STB @ 63+, TMC @ 63+,
SDW @ 72+, CSCO @ 95, AWA @ 30, ALK @ 60-, USG @ 55-, SBL @ 38+, BJ @ 41,
CCB @ 112-, NLCS @ 24, REP @ 57+, CCE @ 40, HH @ 23-....note, new
Airline puts....
Important: and/but, took, NSPR, OAK, WTW, ED, off pot. Puts list, before "put", and/but, took, ELY, SFT, BGO, TDW, TOY, VC, off pot. Longs list, before "bt.", as they aborted their patterns immediately. Important: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested stock will break its S.T. umbrella top, or depressed base/double-bottom/ EVB pattern....I am assuming, if you View it's recent chart/action, before you consider buying any/those issues' Puts, you will see/know this, and therefore NOT buy that company's puts....this takes just 10 seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort patterns....just trying to help....
....and/but, we just Missed, LHSPF, YHOO, BBBY, XYLN, NSOL, QTRN, SEEK, SEIC, WCII., CDN, CGX, UHS, CMS, MRK, ANF, BOL, ICN, ILN, AIM, ER, as puts, near recent highs, and, VVUS @ 6 1/8 again, MANU, SYBS, CUBE, VIAS, SKM, AAC, GRO, SHG, SK, as longs, near recent "EVB" lows, among recently given out stocks.... check their patterns also, if you'd like, to learn, for the next time....I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" their patterns, for your benefit/education....
Also, seeing many more puts/longs here "missed", also tells us, the market is providing more tops/bottoms, at that time, right ? So this also helps us know the nature of the market at any given time....that's why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....means obviously, recent "SOLDS/completed trades/results/ actions" have been skewed towards the Puts side....the idea is to learn the patterns of previously done ideas, for the future....as I said, many "Techs", and Asians, and Metals, and "Basic Ind." stocks WILL bottom ahead, and we will be there when they form better bases/"EVB's"....some already S.T. bottoms, others just Not formed/ready yet....
As I said, it may still continue semi-rough for a while yet, in some long-siders, but we ARE seeing many bounces as predicted herein, in the depr. issues I have given you....Again, while the Media "worries" about "earnings" impacts of various crises, the STOCKS of the companies involved will likely BOTTOM, and rise, even as "lower financials" are announced, right ? So, we'll also be watching for this ahead....small, cut losses will not hurt us, regardless. And, by buying "some "PSYCLE sm" long-side stocks" down here, we should make some money regardless, yes ? This is already happening for us.
note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a bounce up towards where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)
and/or are sales on strength ("ms/sos") :
5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions :
(issues moving since last time, following-up, still in Puts, unless otherwise noted):
(note: ("sow") means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support")
* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): CTAS, SPOT, BOCB, GPSI., AGI., LHSG, STRL, TCAT, CCSC, COFI., DSL, REP, CCB, MHK, STB, LCI., IHS, HB, Utils....of course, if you did not buy any Puts in these, in this section, near their recent highs, when I gave them out, you can choose not to view these/their charts, unless you want to see/learn their patterns....also, note, PFT, given here at 41, hit 44, then Monday, fell to 36 anyway....same with DL....also, note, BUR, SGE, THI., fell further/anew, as well....the power of the "PSYCLE sm" formation. And, I had previously given THRX and AFCI., as nice Puts, before I began this NL ....check how they did from their "PSYCLE sm" highs...
....remember, we either buy our puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....and, some of the issues listed herein, are from previously suggested newsletters, as I said....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully learn from. NSPR, OAK, WTW, ED, (also see recent past NL's here) took Off potential Put list, before "put". (view their patterns to see what aborted Put patterns look like).....
(again, I give you those, so you can view "puts patterns aborted before positions were Hypothetically established" as well, for your learning/benefit)
bases, "techs": QNTM, SMSC, SHVA, PTEK, SIII., JBL, SWW, BDE, SGI., IIR, CS,
bases, "health": OXHP, LIPO, OLGC, TOX, NVX, VTR, MKG, MDM,
"in other industry groups": no great bases here, just EVB"s: among more depr. Farming/Fertilizer-relateds (BCU, PLP, IGL, GGC, POT, GRO, RYC ?), Prec. Metals (RYO, CCH), Oil. Service (MDCO, LSS, LOM, HLX ? but, Not if they go to new lows here), Cyclicals (CUM, FCX, EX), Steels (LTV, NUE, BIR), as "Basic Inds.", are improving technically....a potentially important occurance, given internal market history. (and also, LQ, SWW, ROC, GTR, KMAG, BMC, TLK, VTO, as "depr. Asians/ Foreigns"....saw a chart of the "Korea Composite Stock Index" Wed., and it had a nice EVB itself, dig ?)
....and, I am also "watching" these, as potential buys, at some point ?: SMOD, ICST, DGN, DEN, RFP, CPU, (as potential basers, or double-bottoms).... again, most are very depr. Techs. (please also see EVB's, below), but, as I intimated, it is just Not a "super great" long-side list, here, but, there are still plenty more EVB-type bounces still likely, to buy.
....while some depr. Techs ARE good for a shot here, w/close stops as usual, do NOT expect as large rises this time, as when I gave them out late '97/early '98 (nor, from late '95 to early '96), because they do NOT have bases here, just good EVB's, as with the "Asians"....and, am I, again, the first to "see" EVB's in some depr. "Basic Industry" and "Health" and "Farm/Fert." issues recently ?
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": FCX, GFI., BGO, SFT, VC --- also see 2nd section of "EVB's", below)....These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....as I have been saying, a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or Puts....but we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7".
NOTE: New Section/List: "Longer-term Depressed Bases": OXHP, QNTM, SHVA, OLGC, SMSC, CYMI., CCC, JBL, LTV, TLK, SGI., CS, remain o.k., when/if bought only near their lows, with stops below, diversified, etc. One can STILL buy Only L.T., in-the-money calls options, where suitable, on these....some people like these for pension plans, or longer-term trades, but, when/if they breakout, they can rise, longer/more at times, dig ? Please view their 1-and-2-year charts....see it ?
But--- important: others previous, like, DANKY, DURA, ALSC, SAMC, SYQT, LFB, CDE, SFT, CDG, CHK, PHV, AHG, CAU, WTT, GSR, BGO, CTU, SRA, FCX, CCA, CUM, ELY, CY, VC, are No longer listed here, even as "EVB's", and were Removed from list, Off list, before "bt." Why ? Important: some are still hitting new lows, and/or many of these EVB's need to form Longer depressed BASES, chart-wise, from dead-cat bounces, and/or show the "huge, cathartic volume needed"....makes sense, yes ? As always, be sure to properly diversify.
(and also watching -- and this list is also growing, dig ? --- add, PMTC, MAVK, VNTV, QSII, OFIS, KRY, TER, VTA, NSM, RYC, to, FPAM, PAIR, RMDY, RDRT, ADPT, FPAM, VIAS, MPP, PRG, PPH, CTC, TXB, BDT, GML, AXC, SOC, WCS, ACE, TTX, SEW, PKX, MBK, CIG, IOM, IO., and, soon, some bigger-name Golds ? (eh), as "EVB's", but Not just yet, NOT yet, as they all need more work, technically....(also note, still more depr. Techs, and Asian-orienteds, and, as I said elsewhere, more "Basic Industries" issues). We shall see, and/but Only "if and when" these "set up" properly, technically, as buys, at some point (with the required high-volume catharsis, etc.)....but I am watching these all....but some are Not ready quite yet....especially those still hitting New Lows, as I said above !!! Note: please view 1-and-2-year past chart, of QSII., we did trade it perfectly, from 6+ to 10-ish recently, now back down to 6., note previous saucer base pattern....
Also, see, how MANU, SNRZ, BROD, PHYC, REGI., CLCX, PSSI., GEN, MAN, are already bounced UP a bit, off their recent-past-given EVB's, as I predicted in my "essay" "How to take advantage of Big Down Gaps and EVB's, on the Long Side" (read it again to learn the valuable pattern), and in my recent past NL's here, which teaches you how to do this, and shows examples of such chart patterns....this concept of mine really has worked well, very often, in recent years past. So, DO note the growing list of potential EVB's....This is logical, and expected, after market drops like we just had, yes ? Please realize, that, as good as I and my "PSYCLE sm" have been at these EVB's, we never purport to be able to catch "THE" bottom on anything/everything....as I teach, we just try to "get close", always diversify, with close stops, not overpaying for options in portfolios, where suitable, L.T., in-the-money only, etc. Remember, these EVB's are still likely
to be 2-3-4-month trades....
note: (and, are these also double-topping, S.T.: LHSPF, CBTSY, PSQL, CTAS, XYLN, SEEK, ELNK, LHSG, SAPE, ICIX, ?)....but not if they make new highs, right ? One difficult extended pattern, is the "S.T. rolling top, then a decline, then a lonely rally back to the top area"....often, they do form double-tops.
and/But, just Not yet, in, (also see names of "removed" stocks, in recent past NL's): NSPR, WTW, OAK, ED, all taken Off potential puts list, before "put".... remember, we do NOT buy puts, when/if issue is still making new highs....yes, we will miss "some" right near their tops, but by waiting for double-tops and/or umbrella tops to form better, we will have fewer small cut losses, and we will still catch plenty of Puts over time, with less stress....
The best Puttable Ind. Groups continue to be among extended Financials, Big-name, high-PE, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Media, Consumer, Utility, Drug, Airlines, and, on a rally, the parabolic Internet stocks....and now, perhaps, seeing some Extended Foods, as toppy soon ? Interesting, the groups are broadening, dig ? Again, issues are quickly removed, when/if they break above their potential rolling top formations (as above)....If one properly diversifies, and only does L.T., in-the-money puts, this is not a problem....as you can see, I do "pull" stocks off lists quickly, when they break their patterns, and you should, too....we will catch plenty more VG puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?) Read my "essay" on "How to exploit the Downside in Puts" for deeper coverage, and info. on the Patterns, etc. (as with calls, and all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).
Besides all the lessons you hopefully have gleaned from all my past commentaries above, and from my (six) "essays/booklets", the next Lesson to learn, today, is, as I will be illustrating with many valuable, learnable examples, in my soon-to-be-created "Insiders Activity and the "PSYCLE sm"" booklet, I still, have yet to find enough, consistently easily applicable, predictive patterns in Insider actions, to warrant trying to trade on such figures....as with most all "external/ fundamental" items, there have been so many juxtapositional, varied resullts, from similar Insiders activities, it just doesn't pay to buy/sell a stock, "just based on such figures alone", dig ? There are so many reasons why Insiders buy/sell, at so many high/low prices, at different times, etc. But---that said --- I have found a few special patterns, when/if they occur, coupled with certain chart patterns in that stock, at that time, DO give help of "D.U.F.P.P.V.", worthy of follwing. The Lesson, still of a PSY-chological nature, is that some people tend to "reach" for more "reasons" to act/not act, and, too often, Insider stuff provides them with a seemingly valuable "input item"....but for every example you show me of Insider activity working, I can show you a bunch, where the exact pattern occured, yet other stocks did NOT move that way, in similar circumstances ....As with all "PSYCLE sm" patterns, the key, is going to lie in a combination of a few items, which I apply similarly, to ALL potential stocks chosen to exploit. The Lesson, is NOT to hang your hat on any ONE supposed/assumed indicator, just trying to create or fulfill or "hope" a stock moves a certain way. As with all other things, WE are going to be Ignoring 95 % of all "insider" stuff, as well....
It is also still better to buy some stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed/EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, if one properly Diversifies.... Similarly, it is better to TRY some "puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to never do any....remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves....this is a Good thing....Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action, like we had recently with the Techs/Asians. The Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story".... Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then (buy then ? a pun, get it ?), it
is/will be too late....
*** So, again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or put, stocks "Now", as long as their current prices are right near those given in Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....and, Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable/learnable lists, when/if those issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to your "Guide" to my NL, which will have been sent to you soon after you subscribed....obviously, this NL is a "work in process", a true lifetime learning tool for you, and not an "overnite junk NL", and I want to do my best for you....we are just beginning, and you will be receiving a ton of useable, learnable, specific information from here, and in my "essays/booklets", and in future special reports....thanks again, and spread the word.
*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "illiquid" than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) if those issues are also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)