Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter/education service, issue # 14, dated: 10:00 am, PST, Thursday, July 23, 1998

(Save all my Cumulative missives, for future reference and educational help....these each tend to run about 6 pages in length, printed out....please read my Entire letters....i.e., if you choose not to "do" Puts, or Options, or if you are not "already long" those stock/puts positions/ ideas listed, you may feel like ignoring some of the sections below--- but it is much better if you take the time to check ALL ideas shared herein....you can always also refer back to "the Guide" booklet, for more info./details....The process will become second nature to you quickly: buying long, and buying puts, from section (3), and also, from in sections (6) and (7) when those set up properly, cutting losses when stocks break patterns, etc. Plus, after reading a few NL's, you will already be aware of most stocks from the recent past, and, therefore, have the choice of not/watching them again, if you are not/are looking to trade those stocks, right ?

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
My new newsletter (NL), and educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas, for the benefit of the people who are also coming over from it's Previous incarnation, to also provide Them with a "seamless" transition, "on the fly", so to speak....and Also, to show YOU, as NEW subcribers, all the Recently/ Past suggested ideas, which I shared with my L.T. followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn. Remember, all my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's....and, all my "essays".

Important: Remember, I am pretty Comprehensive, herein....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....most other NL's leave you hanging, yes ? Know, that there are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed: a) Stocks that can be taken advantage of, here and now, if right near given prices, b) Stocks which, if they get back to where they were whwn originally suggested, remain/become tradeable again, and, c) Stocks which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and might also illustrate Industry Groups potentially shaping up, as Educational ideas....Try to "view" the past 1-year back charts of all ideas, for best learning of patterns....all ideas are followed up till "removed" or "sold", for your benefit.


FIRST: IMPORTANT--- until further notice, the online URL, to get all future NL's, will be, first, "the URL for my main web page", then add, each successive time, as a "suffix", forward slash, that date, then "letter.html", ok ?, as in, " /72098letter.html ", then, " /72398letter.html ", then, " /72798letter.html ", etc., etc., got that ? every Mon., and Thu., after 11 am, PST, (2 pm, EST), for now....Hope this helps. Obviously, only subscribers will get this 'code', and, down the road, I am examining changing this format, so non-subscribers cannot figure this out, etc. Gleaning the message, is much more important then the medium, yes ?

second: Please appreciate, that I work very long and hard, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit....again, the "Most Ayctionables, Now/Here", are in section (3) each NL.

third, hope you notice, I have been putting more actual "learning items" into each NL....remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those stocks remain aok....many EVB's may form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6) below....also, note, due to recent cracks in many depresseds here, have either, cut Q, small losses in some (no harm, in a properly diversified portfolio, and , again, do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate recent past perfomance forward forever PSY-chologically/make this a bigger occurance than it is", etc.), and took a bunch off pot. long buy list, as they broke potential patterns....no biggie, yet is does make the potential buy lists smaller and more manageable here, yes ?

This "Split" market, exploitable in BOTH directions simultaneously, which is a Good thing. While I am still giving you, both, Long-siders bouncing, and some Puts issues falling, it is still a bit "sloppy" right here, so am still playing close to the vest, meaning, keeping close stops, and NOT getting emotional nor excited, even with winners, and continuing to hold some cash....For the umpteenth time, "the market" is neither "the averages", nor an important "thing" to even be concerned with....Important: Remember, again, I have been telling you, that any "new highs" in the DJIA/OTC, or other "indexes", are going to be UN-confirmed by the internals (A/D, and H/L figures), so keep that in mind. Also, please do Not let any "Q, S, cut losses" among Puttables (or Longs) recently, prevent you from taking advantage of present/future ideas....just a couple of bigger winners (some of which I have already given here, and will continue to give over time) will more than overcome a few very small cut losses among Puts/Longs, in the meantime....the Key, is not to quit prematurely, stay with the concept, learn the basic patterns, be patient, we have just started, and DO "something", diversified, w/close stops, which best fits your various situational accounts needs....Use this initial NL period, to LEARN as much as you can about my "PSYCLE sm", also read All my essays/ booklets, and view/learn their patterns. IMPORTANT: Key: remember, all suggested ideas REMAIN buys near lows, or puts near highs, (only) as long as their patterns do remain intact, even if weeks or months pass !!! But when/if their patterns crack/break, they are removed very quickly, as you know....

So, "pick your potion(s)," section (3), then (6) and (7), long and/or short side, cash/margin, or only L.T., in-the-money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you have never done Puts, this has been the time to Learn how to do so, using my "booklet/essay" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. top, which may best exist in the early Fall ?)

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Been hearing/reading more, "famous last words/ rationalizations often heard only near S.T. tops in those stocks" comments, recently, whereby Analysts who have never exploited even a S.T. top in their lives, say things like, "while some people view many quality stocks as very overextended, we still believe that such-and-such stocks, are 'relatively less overvalued', and, therefore, represent solid long-term values up here...." wow. "relatively less overvalued" ? huh ? This, dear subscriber, is the supreme dangerous mental "game" (among many I explain in my 2 booklets, on Mastering Emotions/Psychology, and, Scenarios/Linkages), these guys play with themselves (and the poublic, since, the Media reports that stuff, instead of what is proper, at those times, but I digress). As I teach, God forbid they actually come out and say, "many of these stocks are ridiculously overvalued....please lighten up in them, or hedge, or buy puts on them"....Nope....The "PSYCLE sm" point, is that, they STILL have to justify their bloated yes-man salaries (with little or no career or financial risk when/if they are wrong, right ?), and such messages keep nice people IN these kinds of stocks, even as they fall, without even helping those millions of people protect their positions....You know how big a point this is with me....the Lesson: when you hear lots of comments like the one above, you MUST plan for at least, a S.T. pullback in many blue chips....also,

b) Other recent Industry Group Comments: note, Tues. 21st, big-name, extended Drugs fell....could finally be the end of the secular rise for them soon, but we need to see another failed rally first, to buy Puts into, and/or for better, rolling top formations to form, as I teach in the "Exploiting Puts" booklet, which I trust you have read....while, our Banks/Interest-sensitives/Utilities are falling as my "PSYCLE sm" was among the very few to predict right near recent highs....I also see most extended Internet stocks are splitting....you already know how my "PSYCLE sm" views such an occurance, historically....

c) CNBC, Wed. 22nd, 1;30, showed a chart of "short interest (S.I.)" vs. the DJIA, back several years....As usual, and, again, as you must learn, almost no such "indicators" have enough of a directly, consistently, clearly useable message, nor signal-generating capability, to warrant their being used as D.U.F.P.P. factors....With the advent of Options, especially Puts to hedge/ protect, and big Insitutions and Mutual Funds, the "S.I.totals, and Ratio" have been of almost NO correlation, concurrent, nor as a contrary indicator !!! The S.I. levels have been rising, or have been at a high level, for years....yet, previous high-spikes, have NOT lead to "market declines", nor have lower readings been correlated with price rises in stocks, etc. Even "member shorting" figures (what the crooks, I mean the guys, on the exchange floors, do) have been of dubious efficacy of future-price-predictive value....Even the put/call ratios/ figures have not done the job very well, for years now....I know of two very famous-but-in-fact-not-good-at-all, newsletter writers, who have been incorrectly at least semi-bearish, for years, because the "options" ratios were supposedly bearish, for years now....gee, maybe they should instead, view the charts of 2,000 stocks every week, as we do....

d) As I teach, while most "oscillators/indicators" are NOT consistently employable, as "directly useable future price predictive factors" ("D.U.F.P.P.F.") , the recent Investors Intelligence "Sentiment" readings, sometimes, are.... as I have been telling you to be careful about, their recent "bullish/bearish % opinion" readings are also similar to those from March/April 1998, dig ? at 54 % bullish, and only 22 % bearish, from a contrary "PSYCLE sm" point of view, means, things are NOT as bullish, for stocks here, again, right ? too big a ratio, of bullish-to-bearish opinions, dig ? Also, the percentage of stocks above their 10-week and 30-week moving averages have both continued to trend lower, since late 1997 (because the A/D line is falling, also confirming what I have been alerting you to), illustrating, again, that fewer and fewer stocks are holding "indexes" up, yet, internally, most stocks are NOT up, and/or have been weaker, get it ? Actually, since 1996-97, something like 60 % of all stocks are/were still lower, yet the "S & P Index" is way up....this cannot last. (also be sure to read my Booklet, on "Mastering PSY-chology and Sentiment"). hope this helps you....

e) the Nikkei. and Hang Seng Indexes, so far, Failed to breakout above resistance, which is another reason why, as you see, I recently cut some Q, S losses, and also took some Q large % Gains, in some depressed Asian/Tech. stocks. ...but also notice, that, as expected, Silver commodity chart potential breakout from S.T. depressed Base ? oh, and, is Alan Greenspan becoming another S.T. "Dr. Death" in the late 1990's ? Back in the 1980's, every time Henry Kaufman spoke (mostly pretty negative output), the blue chips fell very-short-term....with Mr. G., the same thing has been happening, the last few times, I have noticed....

f) if you do read Newspaper (Investors), you should note, that, as I teach, their fine publication includes a daily page/section, entitled, "NASDAQ Stocks in the News"....which, if you view al the stocks illustrated therein, you will notice, that, day after day, EVERY single stock chart shown, is a stock which is ALREADY WAY UP in price, BEFORE any "news" is announced, yes ? get it ? Again, learn, that we ONLY hear "good news", after rises, and/but NEVER right near their depressed lows...."stock", Wm. O'Darvas's occasionally successful concept, of "buying high RS, and/or only right near all-time highs, and/or after/on breakouts to new highs, after consolidations, hoping for further breakouts forever" has worked, at times, the last few years only (into historically rare action, as I said), but has, in fact, done no better, than "buying near lows with stops", anyway, and also, has failed to catch any "puts" in decent declines....I have never met anyone following that approach, who has done well in Puts....This is not a major criticism, but more, to alert you, that, by only buying/holding near stocks highs, since March/April 1998, unless one hedges (which Lowers one's potential, without protecting much, but don't get me started), or cuts losses (which few people do in practice, because PSY-chologically they are afraid to admit they are wrong, read my booklet on Mastering PSY-chology), that is NOT the best approach to take....especially, as I said would be true, "from" DJIA 9,000+ ....yes, buying a "handful" of big-name stocks, even last year, which were already way up, did work so far, "even bought way up there," for a very low % of listed stocks out there, That approach would NOT work anywhere near as well, after March/ April 1998, as it had/has worked in the past....I hope this makes good sense to you, because, going back 90 years, in historical reality, the vast majority of such extended, past high-flyer stocks, HAVE come back to earth--- and one cannot rely on the Media nor the Finl. Svcs. Industry to alert you....but I will/am. g) Very Important: Know, forward, that, there are Two (2) kinds of "PSYCLE sm" timing signals: One, the probable bottom/top signs, for an Industry, Group, Sector, or a "product/concept/investment area" or a "news item"....and Second, the actual buy/sell signals, to buy/sell/put specific Stocks, near certain price levels....The "company" is NOT necessarily, its "stock"....(read my "booklet" on How Not to Use Media Mesaages....This is REAL important to Learn, and take advantage of....Timing larger "things" (like, say, Real Estate, or, or "Basic Industry Stocks"), obviously is more of a "feel" thing, taking some time to occur, as such items (like a collectible/fad, for instance) tend to form "rolling tops", and they do NOT just go, from up-to-down, on a dime, right ? Previous momentum, and Physics, dictate, that an item must first, go NEUTRAL, before changing direction, right ? (think about it--- that's why EVB's/bases/saucers form !!!) That's why I keep saying, "just get close" to knowing, and doing, what I put out, as I teach to do it, while lowering one's need for instant movement, step back, gain perspective, and steadily, over time, do much better, with patience and confidence. This CAN be learned, and we are proof....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
 (always remember to view 1-year-at-least past charts of everything you can view) (Q = quick; i.e, less than 2 months holding period....VQ = very quick; i.e., less than 3 weeks holding period....re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades, (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where avaliable/ suitable, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" rules), and also try to view their 1-year-past price charts, to see the patterns, and where/when they were Hypothetically, originally "bought", longs near lows, puts near highs)

* previously assumed long positions most recently SOLD (price changes from where/when originally recommended shown):
SOLD: puts CATP (57 to 46) for VVQ 100% Gain....puts GWW (54+ to 45+) for % Gain....bal. calls SGI. (11+ to 15) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. stk.on. mgn. SKM (5+ to 8+) for Q 100% G....stk.on.mgn. PTEK (7 13/16 to 11 1/4) for VQ 80% G....puts XYLN (30- to 23+) for 75% G....CCE (40 to 34+) for 75% G.... bal. puts SPLN (38 to 31) for VQ 80% G....puts SBGI. (29- to 25-) for VVQ 50% G... puts DL (25+ to 22-) for 50% G....puts TMC (64+ to 60+) for Q 33% G....puts BLS (69 to 66) for Q small G....and, Puts, CNWK (70 to 50 to 70+), DSL (34+ to 32 to 35), and, Longs, RDRT (8+ to 10+ to 8), BLM (4+ to 3, to 4-), KMAG, OXHP, DIMD, QSII., SIII., OWN, NUE, SWW, TDW, TMD, CIR, IRI., IO, for V Q, very Small losses

....note, had to cut some quick, Small losses, in some depr. "Techs/Asians", as their patterns seemed to have broken, probably more than balanced by recent large % Gains, in some similar issues, and Puts gains, assuming you diversified... When they broke below recent lows, as I teach in my materials, we are OUT, the vast majority of the time....I just do NOT want "bigger losses", right ? One can always get back in later....better to preserve capiotal, and PSY-chological positiveness....as I say herein, some of these might form lower bases, and/;or double-bottom "W" formations ahead, which, when/if they occur, I will let you know, as usual....

and, while I still continue to give you some large % Puts Gains, even into a non-bearish market, our bunch of Puts losses have been each VERY small, each, as usual, by actually Viewing all past-year chart patterns on "Hypothetical completed" trades, you will hopefully "see" what we are looking for, to exploit, for probable declines....Remember, we "PSYCLE sm" traders have NO emotions, especially where cutting Q, Small losses are concerned....These very quick, very small losses we have taken are of no consequence, in the big picture....neither financially nor psychologically....You can always also go back and view previously "completed" trades from previous NL's, to "see/learn" more, and this also illustrates why one must Diversify, buying at least a Few suggested ideas, at all times, right ? we are in this for the long haul....this approach keeps you in the game, for when those big gainers occur for us...."just get close", as I teach.

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right near these prices only:
(either for cash, especially in pensions, and/or on margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/ available, always diversifying, always with close stops below/above recent lows/highs): (note: If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables", long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price.... and, a " + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-, means, 55 5/8 to 56, dig ?)....again, the idea is to just get "real close" to my listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to worry about every 1/8 or 1/16...


New Longs: (note, more/new names here): MLR @ 6 13/16, VNTV @ 13-, SMSC @ 8 9/16, BCU @ 5 13/16, TTX @ 2 1/4, MKG @ 29+, RFP @ 2 1/2, PAASF @ 8.06, CCH @ 5/16, CUBE @ 16+, IKN @ 13 3/8, GRO @ 15, TOX @ 5/16, RYC @ 30-, ECO @ 2.06, NETM @ 2 11/16, CCA @ 22 1/8, ISSI. @ 6-, CS @ 12+, FTPS @ 1 7/16, ATML @ 12 5/8, GEN @ 17-, WFR @ 10 1/4, SHVA @ 8 7/16, BRTL @ 2 3/8,
....some of these are "repeats"....some are New....and/but, Important: took, SAMC, RMDY, PMTC, OFIS, LIPO, LOM, GSR, CLN, ARW, SRM, ELY, GGC, BIR, WCS, PPH, LFB, SRA, off pot. Long buys list, before "bt....Important: note, I try to give "something for every type of desire/account/objective", including real cheapies, and $ 5-10. stocks, and "big names" blue chips, for straight cash stocks, and marginables, Optionables, etc., so all my valued subscribers have choices, and for proper Diversification ---all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. Please re-read "the Guide" (green colored) to the NL, anytime.

Important: unless issues are listed specifically in section (3) in a NL, they may NOT be buys right here....remember, a valuable part of the "process", is that we have "actionable right near here now" stocks (section (3)), and also, "watching for hopefully becoming ready to buy near lows in their depressed patterns soon" stocks (section (6))....Section (3) is for Now, Section (6) and (7) is for soon/later and learning....be sure to read the "BDG/EVB essay" (and all 6 booklets) offered....very inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for learning timing/ patterns....oh, also, note, besides a bunch of Depr. Techs, the recent potential long Buys list, while growing, is a real mish-mosh, with fewer other real clear "Industry Group Rotation" signals, yet....except, maybe, as some Basic Inds., Cyclicals, Copper, Fertilizer/Farming, Energies/Service, issues may hold their recent EVB lows down here (see below) ? But many of those still need "work" technically, though, so am watching them, for when they set up better.

Remember, part of the "PSYCLE sm" has always, been, that, when I am correct, I will often be among the very few, or even the first, to "see" potentially emerging/deteriorating issues/groups....and No One Else is even remotely mentioning the type of depr. stocks I.G.'s, I am, as potential longs yet, dig ? Usually, I am able to find several I.G.R. issues to exploit, like the "Basic industries" and "depr. techs" and "healths"....regardless, we'll still also buy other individual issues Long, even if not in I.G.'s where others look the same (nd some Puts, yes ?)....read my booklet on "I.G.R." again....I just do not want you looking back, 3-5 months from now, wishing you had had the emotional/PSYchological strength to buy some of these EVB's Long, diversifying, w/close stops anyway, for your protection. Just because some initially are Q, small, cut losses, does NOT mean this concept will not work, over time....it always has....

New Puts: XYLN @ 30+, AJG @ 45, CKR @ 44, ABS @ 53, AMES @ 28-, SYY @ 26-, LHSG @ 73, LAF @ 40-, MTX @ 54-, VCI. @ 39+, COFI. @ 35+, CKFR @ 31-, HGR @ 21-, ELNK @ 45-, DTE @ 41+, SDS @ 39+, BCE @ 45, F. @ 60 (also re-view recent past lists, this section).

IMPORTANT: and/but, took, more, FORE, INTU, BCE, UTX, FON, off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off here). Important: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested stock will break its S.T. umbrella top, or depressed base/double-bottom/ EVB pattern....I am assuming, if you View it's recent chart/action, before you consider buying any/those issues' Puts, you will see/know this, and therefore NOT buy that company's puts....this takes just 10 seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort patterns....just trying to help....

....and/but, we just Missed, EMLX (wow), TXB up (wow), ALSC, AMAT, CYMI., NSM, SHG, CTC, NEM, PKX, AMD, PLP, OMI, SK, NA, AA, PD, CD, IP, as Longs near recent "EVB" lows, and, CA (wow), PMCS (wow), GMSTF, BRK/B, CASY, AMCC, PSUN, ICIX, GDW, SDS, RNB, GPS, RAL, PFE, COF, MTC, KRB, LEN, DOW, ITW, MBI., ED, as Puts near highs, among stocks recently given you herein....I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" their patterns, for your benefit/education....also, note, "Fakeout Breakouts/ whipsaws", in RDRT, BOOL, IDTI....

....Also, viewing all the charts of the puts/longs here which we just "missed", also tells us, the market is providing more tops/bottoms, at that time, right ? So this also helps us know the nature of the market at any given time.... that's why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....the idea is to learn the patterns of previously done ideas, for the future....

....As I said, it may still continue semi-rough for a while yet, in some long-siders, but we ARE seeing many bounces as predicted herein, in the depr. issues I have given you....Again, while the Media "worries" about "earnings" impacts of various crises, the STOCKS of the companies involved will likely BOTTOM, and rise, even as "lower financials" are announced, right ? So, we'll also be watching for this ahead....small, cut losses will not hurt us, regardless. And, by buying "some "PSYCLE sm" long-side stocks" down here, we should make some money regardless, yes ? This is already happening for us.


 Remember, all previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up, for your Educational and trading benefit....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, following-up, still long, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy here, up already, acting O.K., so stick around:
(Remember, we follow-up every single idea, previously Hypothetically "in", where applicable: PTEK 11 1/4 up 2 3/8 (sos), RFP 3 up 1/2, GEN 18 up 1 1/2, PAASF 8 3/4 up 5/8, CDT 24 up 1 3/4, BBA 5 5/8 up 3/8, CUBE 17 1/4 up 1 1/8, KLAC 29- up 1, RYC 31+ up 1 3/8, CCA 22 3/4, BRTL 2 5/8, TTX 2 1/2, PLL 21 3/8, BDT 15 3/4, CCC 11 1/4, CS 13+, up/further, since last time here....
....
and/but, then, BDE, AOI., MADGF, KMET, QNTM, KLAC, SMSC, ISSI., IDTI., GEN, TIG, PNF, BMC, TLK, RFP, JBL, VTO, LQ, UTR, CUM, POT, pb (pulling back).... again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed stocks", even in qualified plans/ pensions accounts, with stops, diversified....and again, you must buy at least FEW, always diversifying, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers ....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is Impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,000 issues....maybe 5 or 10, long-side, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of instant/S.T. gratification....

note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a bounce up towards where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)

* and/but, these already assumed Longs, must strengthen,
and/or are sales on strength ("ms/sos") :
BLM 3 7/8 up 3/4 (S), MADGF, FTPS, THDO, SMSC, OAKT, CADA, ELCO, WKGP, MATH, NETM, CCLR, ISSI., AXC, DGN, TAC, JBL, TIG, RYO, NVX, AOI, IKN, N....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions :
(issues moving since last time, following-up, still in Puts, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy puts on now, but acting properly, stick around:
: note, I am still giving you plenty of Puttables which Are Falling, even in this market: CCE -7 wow (S), XYLN -7 1/4 (S), CKFR -4 5/8 (sow), RXSD -4 1/2, MTX -3 3/4, AES -4, QTRN -3 3/4, CKR -3, PAYX -2 1/2, NOBE -2 1/2, LHSG -2 1/2, GDYS -2 1/2, DL -2 1/2, TCAT -2, ELNK -2, SDW -2, AMES -2, BCE -1 3/4, GWW -1 (S), ABS -2, SBGI. -1 1/2 (S), SDS -1 5/8, AJL -1 1/2, SBL -1 3/8, LAF -1 1/4, MAST -1, CATP -1 (S), FRED -1, MYG -1, BSE -1, AWA -1, AFC -1, DTE -1, VCI. -1, AGI. -1, F. -1, COFI., SYY, CPL, TOL, TMC (S), ED, down/further (since last time)....remember, these are NOT "overnite" puts as trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing....view their 200 DMA's....hey, we gave you plenty of Puts winners, so far, lately, yes ? plenty more to come....remember, stocks often fall in 2 or 3 stages, even S.T., towards their 200 DMA....some people say it is Valuable, that my "PSYCLE sm" finds many winning puts at all, in this market, which I appreciate....Remember, as with March/April, when we see more/better tops, WE will likely do much better than others, in Puts, at that time. We will will also have the money, and the emotional strength, to do so. Also, keep in the back of your mind, the continuing negative divergences between "the indexes" and "the 2,000 stocks within the markets", which, to me, begins to smack of a bigger top ahead, maybe not as bad in degree as 1987, but at least similar in timing ?

(note: ("sow") means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support")

* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): LHSPF, CTAS, SPLN (S), MHK, BOCB, GPSI., CBSL, AGI., COFI., REP, DTE, ABS, SBL.... of course, if you did not buy any Puts in these, in this section, near their recent highs, when I gave them out, you can choose not to view these/their charts, unless you want to see/learn their patterns.

....remember, we either buy our puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....and, some of the issues listed herein, are from previously suggested newsletters, as I said....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully learn from.

6) other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
Please be patient here, and, again, do not "force" trdaes, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to buy long, here....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....but do buy "some things" here, with close stops....also, it may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next sections here....mostly among EVB's....check those charts you choose to view, but the Key message, is to see how many ARE forming EVB's here, as a measure of "timing"....also, remember, we do NOT "chase up".... if an issue is ALREADY up appreciably off its bottom/base/low, we do NOT buy it here....we wait for bigger pullback, or choose others instead, right ?
bases, "techs": SMSC, SHVA, CS,
bases, "health": CCLR, TOX, MKG,
"in other industry groups": no great bases here, just EVB"s: among more depr. Farming/Fertilizer-relateds (BCU, PLP, GRO, RYC), Prec. Metals (PAASF, ECO, RYO, CCH, NEM, and "Silver broke out, as predicted, and, Gold itself may be finishing left side of a depressed saucer soon ?), Oil. Service (MDCO, LSS, HLX), Cyclicals (CUM, FCX, CCC, PKX, APD, EX, N.) , as "Basic Inds." (but, Not if any of them make new lows here)....a potentially important occurance, economically, given internal market history. (Please also see EVB's, below), but, as I intimated, it is still just Not a "super great" long-side list, here, but, there are still plenty more EVB-type bounces still likely, to buy, regardless

And, while some depresseds Are good for a shot here, w/close stops as usual, diversified, etc., do NOT expect as large rises this time, as when I gave them out late '97/early '98 (nor, from late '95 to early '96), because they do NOT have bases here, just some with good EVB's, as with the others....and, was/am I, again, the first to "see" EVB's in some depr. "Techs/Asians", "Basic Industries", "Health", "Farm/Fert." issues recently ? Also, some depressed REIT's might be interesting, for people desiring potential high-yields plus boring growth, at some point ahead ? will let you know....

and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": SAMC, PMTC, LIPO, LOM, GSR, ARW, GGC, SRM, CLN, BIR, LFB, PPH, ELY, SRA, WCS --- were taken Off....also see 2nd section of "EVB's" , below). These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....as I have been saying, a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or Puts....but we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7".

NOTE: New Section/List: "Longer-term Depressed Bases": OXHP, QNTM, SHVA, CUBE, SMSC, CYMI., CCC, CS, remain o.k., when/if bought Only right near their Lows, with stops below, diversified, etc. One can also buy Only L.T., in-the- money Calls Options, where suitable, on these....some people like these for pension plans, or longer-term trades, but, when/if they breakout, they can rise, longer/more at times, dig ? Please view their 1-and-2-year charts....see it ?

* And, also, these are still, current, or, Potential, "EVB's", as "BDG's" (read that booklet):
remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much), as "EVB's", diversified, w/close stops below, added, CUBE, MLR, ECO, APD, AMD, AHG, NTN, NEO, TPS, VNT, EY, to, ATML, KLAC, GRO, CDE, NTN, CYMI., CCC, LSS, NSC, USI., IKN, TTT, VVUS, TTX, MKG, MT, CCA, FCX, BMC, DIMD, MKG, PLL, GEN, IDTI., ISSI., GTR, BCU, JBL, RFP, SK, CY, MT, and, the stocks listed above.... (note, some are double-bottoms, some have V.S.T. bases, but most are EVB's).... also, Important note: some EVB stocks may form S.T. "W" patterns down here....but, most EVB's are "V" patterns, on huge volume, but they also can be a "W"....watch for that....some just take a bit longer to form, as per my "BDG/EVB Booklet" examples....which is fine, since we are NOT doing "overnite" trades, right ? also note, some EVB's have been improved, from "watching" list, to the actual "EVB" list, yes ? last, remember, we do NOT "chase up"....

and also Watching-- and this list is also growing, dig ? --- add, EXBT, CRUS, CUBE, SYBS, GEMS, BRTL, to, VNTV, VTA, NSM, ADPT, EAR, VIAS, PRG, BDT, SEW, GTR, GML, AXC, SOC, WTT, PKX, DEN, AOI., IOM, GFI., IRF, CD, NN, as "EVB's", but Not just yet, NOT yet, as they all need more work, technically....We shall see, and/but Only "if and when" these "set up" properly, technically, as buys, at some point (with the required high-volume catharsis, etc.)....but I am watching these all....but some are Not ready quite yet....especially those still hitting New Lows, as I said above....but, as I said above, some of these may/will form EVB "W" patterns ahead, which I will alert you to, if so....

Also, see, how, DURA, MANU, SNRZ, BROD, REGI., CLCX, PSSI., GEN, MAN, have/are already bounced UP a bit, off their recent-past-given EVB's, as only I predicted in my "essay" "How to take advantage of Big Down Gaps and EVB's, on the Long Side" (read it again to learn the valuable pattern), and in my recent past NL's here, which teaches you how to do this, and shows examples of such chart patterns....this concept of mine really has worked well, very often, in recent years past, with close stops when/if wrong, right ? So, DO note the growing list of potential EVB's....This is logical, and expected, after market drops like we just had, yes ? Please realize, that, as good as I and my "PSYCLE sm" have been at these EVB's, we never purport to be able to catch "THE" bottom on anything/ everything....as I teach, we just try to "get close", always diversify, with close stops, not overpaying for options in portfolios, where suitable, L.T., in-the-money only, etc. Remember, these/any EVB's are still likely to be 2-3-4-month trades....which is just fine....

7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent highs Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower:
"Recent Puts Buys from Section (3)" above, plus:
added, PSUN, PAYX, to, LHSG, AMES, ABS, GMSTF, GDYS, OCENY, FORR, NOBE, INTU, FORE, VISX, AMCC, COF, DTE, HGR, KEA, GPS, RAL, MDT, ITW, RNB, LAF, MTX, VCI., LEN, NFB, KRB, MBI., EE, NU, F., CATP, TOL, SBGI., BRK/B, BBBY, CKFR, TOM, TCAT, RXSD, ELNK, GDW, BCE, SYY, YHOO, QTRN, SKYT, COFI., GPSI., EWG, AFC, SBL, SDW, ICIX, REP, AWA, CPL, CMS, BSE, WWY, BJ, ED, and, again, the recently bought-puts-on stocks in section (3) above, the last few NL's, as Puttables, near their highs Only....some are "EVT's" ("Exhaustion V (hook) Tops", the opposite of EVB's, get it ?), some double-tops....a little clearer, yes ?

Puttables list growing, even as "Long-side" list growing, again, illustrating the "Split" market. Note, more Retails (GDYS, RXSD, AMES, NOBE, BBBY, ABS, GPS, TOM, VCI., BJ), and Financials (COFI, BRK/B, RNB, COF, CCB, GDW, AFC, KRB, NFB, MBI.), and Utils. (CPL, BSE, DTE, CMS, ED, NU, EE), "Media" (GMSTF, ELNK, YHOO, TMC, VCI.), plus, of course, Comp./Techs, now included. Again, I am trying to put these into general "industry groups", where helpful.

and/But, just Not yet, in: FORE, INTU, BCE, UTX, FON (also see names of other "removed" stocks, in recent past NL's), all taken Off potential puts list, before "put"....remember, we do NOT buy puts, when/if issue is still making new highs.... yes, we will miss "some" right near their tops, but by waiting for double-tops and/or umbrella tops to form better, we will have fewer small cut losses, and we will still catch plenty of Puts over time, with less stress....again, when/if an issue breaks out immediately after I add it, I remove it, period. You must please check the recent charts of all potential Puts ideas, takes less than 10 seconds each, to make sure they have not broken out.

The best Puttable Industry Groups Sectors, continue to be among extended Financials, Big-name, high-PE, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Media, Consumer, Utility, Health, Airlines, and, on a rally, the parabolic Internet stocks....and now, perhaps, seeing some Extended Foods, as toppy soon ? Interesting, the groups are broadening, dig ? Again, issues are quickly removed, when/if they break above their potential rolling top formations (as above).... If one properly diversifies, and only does L.T., in-the-money puts, this is not a problem....as you can see, I do "pull" stocks off lists quickly, when they break their patterns, and you should, too....we will catch plenty more VG puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?) Read my "essay" on "How to exploit the Downside in Puts" for deeper coverage, and info. on the Patterns, etc. (as with calls, and all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).

8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
Besides all the lessons you hopefully have gleaned from all my past NL commentaries above, and from my (six) "essays/booklets", the next Lessons to learn, today, are, actually, in the last few "what I've read and what's been said" sections, (a) to (f) above, each NL....Lessons about, indicators signals, media messages, sentiment, and, learning to cut Q, small losses, when wrong, to preserve finances and one's psyche....and, to buy at least "something", from/on the PUT side, every month....not just for "insurance", but also to profit from the market's obvious internals at times....

Therefore, as I keep reiterating, It is also still better to buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed/EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....Similarly, it is better to TRY some "Puts/ options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to never do any....remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/ all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves....this is a Good thing....Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action, like we had recently with the Techs/Asians. The Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story"....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then (buy then ? a pun, get it ?), it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, NON-positiveness, when the patterns are aok, right ?

*** So, again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or put, stocks "Now", as long as their current prices are right near those given in Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....and, Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable/learnable lists, when/if those issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to your "Guide" to my NL, which will have been sent to you soon after you subscribed....obviously, this NL is a "work in process", a true lifetime learning tool for you, and not an "overnite junk NL", and I want to do my best for you....we are just beginning, and you will be receiving a ton of useable, learnable, specific information from here, and in my "essays/booklets", and in future special reports....thanks again, and spread the word.

*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "illiquid" than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) if those issues are also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)