Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter/education service, issue # 15, dated: 10:00 am, PST, Monday, July 27, 1998

(Save all my Cumulative missives, for future reference and educational help....these each tend to run about 7-8 pages in length, printed out....please read my Entire letters....i.e., if you choose not to "do" Puts, or Options, or if you are not "already long" those stock/puts positions/ideas listed, you may feel like ignoring some of the sections below--- but it is much better if you take the time to check ALL ideas shared herein.... you can always also refer back to "the Guide" booklet, for more info./details.... The process will become second nature to you quickly: buying long, and buying puts, from section (3), and also, from in sections (6) and (7) when those set up properly, cutting losses when stocks break patterns, etc. Plus, after reading a few NL's, you will already be aware of most stocks from the recent past, and, therefore, have the choice of not/watching them again, if you are not/are looking to trade those stocks, right ?

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
My new newsletter (NL), and educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas, for the benefit of the people who are also coming over from it's Previous incarnation, to also provide Them with a "seamless" transition, "on the fly", so to speak....and Also, to show YOU, as NEW subcribers, all the Recently/ Past suggested ideas, which I shared with my L.T. followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn. Remember, all my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's....and, all my "essays".

Important: Remember, I am pretty Comprehensive, herein....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit.... most other NL's leave you hanging, yes ? Know, that there are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed: a) Stocks that can be taken advantage of, here and now, if right near given prices, b) Stocks which, if they get back to where they were whwn originally suggested, remain/become tradeable again, and, c) Stocks which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and might also illustrate Industry Groups potentially shaping up, as Educational ideas....Try to "view" the past 1-year back charts of all ideas, for best learning of patterns....all ideas are followed up till "removed" or "sold", for your benefit.


FIRST: IMPORTANT--- until further notice, the online URL, to get all future NL's, will be, first, "the URL for my main web page", then add, each successive time, as a "suffix", forward slash, that date, then "letter.html" , ok ?, as in, " /72398letter.html ", then, " /72798letter.html ", then, " /73098letter.html ", etc., etc., got that ? every Mon., and Thu., after 11 am, PST, (2 pm, EST), for now....Hope this helps. Obviously, only subscribers will get this 'code', and, down the road, I am examining changing this format, so non-subscribers cannot figure this out, etc. Gleaning the message, is much more important then the medium, yes ?

second: Please appreciate, that I work very long and hard, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit....again, the "Most Ayctionables, Now/Here", are in section (3) each NL.

third, hope you notice, I have been putting more actual "learning items" into each NL....remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those stocks remain aok....many EVB's may form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6) below....also, note, due to recent cracks in many depresseds here, have either, cut Q, small losses in some (no harm, in a properly diversified portfolio, and , again, do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate recent past perfomance forward forever PSY-chologically/make this a bigger occurance than it is", etc.), and took a bunch off pot. long buy list, as they broke potential patterns....no biggie, yet is does make the potential buy lists smaller and more manageable here, yes ?

quick note: please re-read my 7/23 letter, just section (5), where the price changes declines of many previously given you Puttables, were puzlingly not "printed out" onto the web....as I say below in today's section (5), something went weird, and they were not printed onto the NL, the last 2 times....so today's section (5) gets us up-to-date on the Many Predicted Declines, in "hypothetically assumed long Puts positions" I gave out in the recent past....neat.

Been telling you, this "Split" market, has gotten even more sloppy, so we are still playing close to the vest, meaning, keeping close stops, and NOT getting emotional nor excited, cutting Q, small losses, nor with Puts winners, and continuing to hold/raise some cash....For the umpteenth time, "the market" is neither "the averages", nor an important "thing" to even be concerned with.... Important: Remember, again, I have told you, that any "new highs" in the DJIA and OTC, or other "indexes", were going to be quite UN-confirmed by the internals (A/D, and H/L figures), and hence, recent drops....And, see the recent corrections , as expected, in many extended stocks, I gave you herein, yes ?

Also, please do Not let any "Q, S, cut losses" among Puttables (or Longs) recently, prevent you from taking advantage of present/future ideas....just a couple of bigger winners (some of which I have already given here, and will continue to give over time) will more than overcome a few very small cut losses among Puts/Longs, in the meantime....the Key, is not to quit prematurely, stay with the concept, learn the basic patterns, be patient, we have just started, and DO "something", diversified, w/close stops, which best fits your various situational accounts needs....Use this initial NL period, to LEARN as much as you can about my "PSYCLE sm", also read All my essays/ booklets, and view/learn their patterns. IMPORTANT: Key: remember, all suggested ideas REMAIN buys near lows, or puts near highs, (only) as long as their patterns do remain intact, even if weeks or months pass !!! But when/if their patterns crack/break, they are removed very quickly, as you know....

So, "pick your potion(s)," section (3), then (6) and (7), long and/or short side, cash/margin, or only L.T., in-the-money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you have never done Puts, this has been the time to Learn how to do so, using my "booklet/essay" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. top, which may best exist in the early Fall ?)

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a)

b) Other recent Industry Group Comments: among the depr. Techs, a bunch are going to maybe try to make double-bottoms ahead, like, DIMD, LIPO, VIAS, ALSC, IRF, CY, others ? Of course, as always, when/if they break below "the left bottom" of the EVB "W", their patterns would abort....remember, NO attachments, if they break....also, note, the Airlines I was first/only to give you here, as Puts, down further ....also, the Utilities, I was first/only to give you, like, BCE, BSE, DTE, CPL, UCM, CMS, NU, ED, are also down further....and, on the L.T. long side, among the farming companies' stocks I mentioned, added, CSE, IGL, to the others in section (6) below, but they are just starting to bottom here....we will be the first in those, when and if....

c) follow-up in Retails, again: as I was the Only guy to even suggest the extended Retailers were toppy, 2-3 weeks ago here, note, CNBC, Fri. 24th, asked "how come the Specialty Retail stocks are falling so much ? Their earnings are rising ...." As I said, nothing ever changes....in stage 4 and 5 of my "PSYCLE sm", earnings are SUPPOSED to rise, AS their stocks fall---just like with the extended Energy/Services stocks I gave as Puts, last winter, dig ? I gave you, GDYS, NOBE, FRED, RXSD, AMES, TOM, GPS, BBBY, ABS, VCI., BJ, here, and, PSUN, NAUT, LIZ, S, are also down, check their chart patterns....remember, as some decline towards their 200 DMA initial downside targets, we will want to sell, previously BT. puts, right ?

d) one of my best Winners so far in 1988, was Odetics (ODETA), from 4+ to 13, plus a free spin-off (ATLPA), which then doubled also....a huge, quick gain.... please view it's past 1-2 -year chart....see the depr. base there was ? the point: my analysis, and buy, was totally technical in nature....NOT based on ANY past, current, nor future fundamentals or news or "story"....the Lesson, occured Friday, when Odetics reported a LOSS, on LOWER sales, for the recent past fiscal quarter....yet the stock, Rose, a ton....Two different things, as I keep saying ....In a similar story, the Opposite way, please view the past 10-month chart, of (XYLN) which I specifically gave you in an early NL, as a Puttable, over $ 30. It hung around, for a little while, then got hit last week, to $ 23. or so, as expected... Interesting, since, last week, they announced "Profit Triples" in financial story --- profits tripled, yet the stock Fell, as "PSYCLE sm" pattern predicted, dig ?

e) the gang at CNBC has just got to sensationalize/excite the masses.... when/if we are declining, they exacerbate reported "bad" news (and vice-versa), sometimes creating embarassing momets, like, Thu., when, reporting (quote) "bad earnings....down strongly, at UTEK...let's get you a fresh stock price quote.... oh, look at that, up 1/4....well, it WAS down strongly earlier...." get it ? and, in a related note, as I teach, the whole idea of ANY company being "so good, long-term, that is it somehow impervious to declines in its stock", is ludicrous.. ..case in point: Thermo Electron (TMO), one of the greatest "companies" in our modern history....As always happens when my "PSYCLE sm" warns of toppy chart patterns in such great companies (but, remember, the company is NOT the stock, right ?), I get massively defensive, venomous responses on the web, from "L.T. holders forever" of such stocks....this is a totally Emotional, irrational, but normal human nature response, yes ? One must never let one's attachments to any "company", prevent one from acting properly with that "stock", when/as it bottoms or tops....I especially love it when people give me the tired, "I can't sell it because I'd have to pay taxes on the gain" line, and/or, the "I'm not worried about even a big S.T. correction in this particular stock, because, in the long run, it's a great company, etc." yadda, yadda....These, and many other "psych- olgocial games/traps" people play with themselves, are covered in my booklet, "Mastering Psychology in Trading"....read it again....Too many nice people let their psyche-weaknesses cloud the reality of the chart patterns of stocks they hold, at times....I hope I am helping you not do so, herein, over time....

f) please view the past- year chart of Shaw Inds. (SHX), see the beautiful saucer base pattern, 11/97 to 2/98, and the nice rise since....I had this one, then, in calls options, for my people....with flat/boring earnings, brokerage firms lowering their opinions, removing this huge co. stock from their recommended lists right near the lows, and no special "news" needed, during that time/rise....

g) while I still shy away from most "indicators", and/or "index" ramblings, we are already approaching "Oversold" levels, last seen, very recently, on 4/3/97, 10/27/97, 4/27/98, 5/28/98, 6/15/98, on the McLellan Oscillator....while markets and individual stocks can remain "oversold", which is also subjective (read my booklets on this subject), for weeks/months, check those 5 past dates, to see what happened thereafter (got S.T. bottoms and some bounces)....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
 (always remember to view 1-year-at-least past charts of everything you can view) (Q = quick; i.e, less than 2 months holding period....VQ = very quick; i.e., less than 3 weeks holding period....re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades, (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where avaliable/ suitable, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" rules), and also try to view their 1-year-past price charts, to see the patterns, and where/when they were Hypothetically, originally "bought", longs near lows, puts near highs)

* previously assumed long positions most recently SOLD (price changes from where/when originally recommended shown):
SOLD: A Bunch More Puts Gains for you: puts TOM (67+ to 51-) for 175% Gain....puts CATP (58- to 46+) for VQ 111% G....puts AMES (28- to 21+) for VVQ 111% G....puts AES (55 to 45) for VQ 100% G....puts DNB (36- to 27++) for 111% G....bal. puts SNPS (46- to 38-) for 75% G....puts ALK (58 to 61 to 49) for 100% G....puts SDW (73 to 64) for VQ 80% G....puts NOBE (38- to 31+) for VVQ 100% G....puts QTRN (52- to 45-) for VQ 55% G....puts JCI. (60 to 53) for 66% G... puts CKFR (30 to 25) for VQ 55% G....puts AWA (30 to 25) for 55% G... puts CNWK (70+ to 50 to 74 to 59), for 33 % G....stock BBA (3 7/8 to 5 3/8) for Q 33% G.... and, Longs, RDRT (8+ to 10+ to 8-), AOI. (4+ to 6+ to 4+), ATML, MKG, SHVA, SMSC, IDTI., ISSI., GEN, NVX, MLR, LSS, TIG, IKN, and, puts, SBL, for V Q, very Small losses....

Note: had to cut some more quick, Small losses, in some more depr."Techs/ Asians", as their patterns seemed to have broken, balanced by recent large % Gains, in some similar issues, and more large Puts % gains, assuming you diversified....When they break/broke below recent lows, as I teach in my materials, we are OUT, the vast majority of the time....I just do NOT want any "bigger losses", right ? One can always get back in later....It is better to preserve capital, and one's PSY-chological positiveness....as I say herein, some of these might form lower bases, and/or double-bottom "W" formations ahead, which, when/if they occur, I will let you know, as usual....

IMPORTANT: Also, note, how AWA, ALK, SDW, TOM, JCI., AMES, NOBE, QTRN, CATP, SNPS, all approached/reached stopped falling at, their 200-day moving avrerages ....neat, huh....SEE IT ? this is how it is supposed to work for you/us....

and, while I still continue to give you some large % Puts Gains, even into a previously non-bearish market, our bunch of Puts losses have been each VERY small, each, as usual, by actually Viewing all past-year chart patterns on "Hypothetical completed" trades, you will hopefully "see" what we are looking for, to exploit, for probable declines....Remember, we "PSYCLE sm" traders have NO emotions, especially where cutting Q, Small losses are concerned....These very quick, very small losses we have taken are of no consequence, in the big picture ....neither financially nor psychologically....You can always also go back and view previously "completed" trades from previous NL's, to "see/learn" more, and this also illustrates why one must Diversify, buying at least a Few suggested ideas, at all times, right ? we are in this for the long haul....this approach keeps you in the game, for when those big gainers occur for us...."just get close", as I teach.

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right near these prices only:
(either for cash, especially in pensions, and/or on margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/ available, always diversifying, always with close stops below/above recent lows/highs): (note: If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables", long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price.... and, a " + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-, means, 55 5/8 to 56, dig ?)....again, the idea is to just get "real close" to my listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to worry about every 1/8 or 1/16...


New Longs: (note, more/new names here): VNTV @ 13-, BCU @ 5 13/16, TTX @ 2 1/4, CCH @ 5/16, CUBE @ 16+, CCLR @ 4 1/8, TOX @ 5/16, ECO @ 2.06, CS @ 12+, JBL @ 31+, AMD @ 16-, ALSC @ 2 5/8, UTR @ 11-, AL @ 26, KLAC @ 26-, EWS @ 4 7/16....
....some of these are "repeats"....some are New....and/but, Important: took, ADPT, MDCO, VNT, WFR, GTR, APD, VNT, TOY, CY, off pot. Long buys list, before "bt. Important: note, I try to give "something for every type of desire/account/ objective", including real cheapies, and $ 5-10. stocks, and "big names" blue chips, for straight cash stocks, and marginables, Optionables, etc., so all my valued subscribers have choices, and for proper Diversification ---all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. Please re-read "the Guide" (green colored) to the NL, anytime.

Important: unless issues are listed specifically in section (3) in a NL, they may NOT be buys right here....remember, a valuable part of the "process", is that we have "actionable right near here now" stocks (section (3)), and also, "watching for hopefully becoming ready to buy near lows in their depressed patterns soon" stocks (section (6))....Section (3) is for Now, Section (6) and (7) is for soon/later and learning....be sure to read the "BDG/EVB essay" (and all 6 booklets) offered....very inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for learning timing/patterns....

Remember, part of the "PSYCLE sm" has always, been, that, when I am correct, I will often be among the very few, or even the first, to "see" potentially emerging/deteriorating issues/groups....and No One Else is even remotely mentioning the type of depr. stocks I.G.'s, I am, as potential longs yet, dig ? Usually, I am able to find several I.G.R. issues to exploit, like the "Basic industries" and "depr. techs" and "healths"....regardless, we'll still also buy other individual issues Long, even if not in I.G.'s where others look the same (nd some Puts, yes ?)....read my booklet on "I.G.R." again....I just do not want you looking back, 3-5 months from now, wishing you had had the emotional/PSYchological strength to buy some of these EVB's Long, diversifying, w/close stops anyway, for your protection. Just because some initially are Q, small, cut losses, does NOT mean this concept will not work, over time....it always has....

New Puts: OCENY @ 44-, WHIT @ 49-, WLA @ 80, UL @ 79+, UN @ 45-, SYY @ 26-, LHSG @ 73, UCM @ 36-, ELNK @ 45-, DTE @ 41, SDS @ 39+, AHP @ 53+, PWJ @ 48-, HHS @ 26-, F. @ 60 (also re-view recent past lists, this section).

and/but, took, none, off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested stock will break its S.T. umbrella top, or depressed base/double-bottom/EVB pattern....I am assuming, if you View it's recent chart/action, before you consider buying any/those issues' Puts, you will see/know this, and therefore NOT buy that company's puts....this takes just 10 seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort patterns....just trying to help....

....and/but, we just Missed, SEW, PLP, TPS, as Longs near recent "EVB" lows, and, YHOO, VISX, MEG/A, AXNT, SAPE, AMZN, XCIT, INTU, KEA, UTX, NFB, KRB, MBI., NU, UVN, SKO, HH, and Aero/Def. stocks, as Puts near highs, among stocks recently given you herein....I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" their patterns, for your benefit/ education....also, note, "Fakeout Breakouts/whipsaws", in RDRT, BOOL, IDTI....

....Also, viewing all the charts of the puts/longs here which we just "missed", also tells us, the market is providing more tops/bottoms, at that time, right ? So this also helps us know the nature of the market at any given time.... that's why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....the idea is to learn the patterns of previously done ideas, for the future....

....As I said, it may still continue semi-rough for a while yet, in some long-siders, but we ARE seeing many bounces as predicted herein, in the depr. issues I have given you....Again, while the Media "worries" about "earnings" impacts of various crises, the STOCKS of the companies involved will likely BOTTOM, and rise, even as "lower financials" are announced, right ? So, we'll also be watching for this ahead....small, cut losses will not hurt us, regardless. And, by buying "some "PSYCLE sm" long-side stocks" down here, we should make some money regardless, yes ? This is already happening for us.


 Remember, all previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up, for your Educational and trading benefit....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, following-up, still long, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy here, up already, acting O.K., so stick around:
(Remember, we follow-up every single idea, previously Hypothetically "in", where applicable: KLAC 27- up 1, FCX 16 5/8, up/further, since last time here....
and/but, then, PAASF, BDE, MADGF, KMET, QNTM, KLAC, PNF, BMC, TLK, CDT, JBL, FCX, VTO, LQ, UTR, CUM, POT, HMY, pb (pulling back)....again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed stocks", even in qualified plans/ pensions accounts, with stops, diversified....and again, you must buy at least FEW, always diversi- fying, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is Impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,000 issues....maybe 5 or 10, long-side, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2.... One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of instant/S.T. gratification....

note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a bounce up towards where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)

* and/but, these already assumed Longs, must strengthen,
and/or are sales on strength ("ms/sos"):
MADGF, FTPS, THDO, OAKT, CADA, ELCO, WKGP, MATH, QNTM, NETM, CCLR, AXC, DGN, TAC, JBL, RYO, BCU, BMC, ECO, N. ...

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, following-up, still in Puts, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy puts on now, but acting properly, stick around:
: IMPORTANT: Evidently, through a weird computer glitch which I have now solved, the last 2 NL's have not "shown" the followed-up, bi-weekly price changed declines, in specifically assumed Hypothetically Long Put stocks positions here, in this one section of each NL, that I have given you....today's does, and will make you/us current, and future section (5)'s here, will, as usual....I am always trying to be surper-thorough for yo, so sorry....but, of course, Note, I have still given you plenty of Puttables which Are Falling: to wit: TOM -12 (S), LHSPF -14, CCE -7 wow (S), LHSG -7 1/2, XYLN -7 1/4 (S), ELNK -8 1/2, AMES -5 1/4 (S), CKFR -5 (S), RXSD -5 1/2, GDYS -4 1/2, MTX -3 3/4, TCAT -4, AES -5 (S), AWA -4 (S), QTRN -3 3/4, ALK -3 1/2 (S), UN -3 1/2, MAST -3, BBBY -3 (sow), CBSL -3, CKR -3, IHS -3 (sow), F. -3, BCE -2 3/4, UL -2 3/4, PAYX -2 1/2, NOBE -2 1/2 (S), DL -2 1/2, SDW -2, DNB -3 (S), WHIT -1 3/4, GWW -1 (S), ABS -2 1/2, SBGI. -1 1/2 (S), SNPS -1 1/2 (S), SDS -1 5/8 , GPSI. -1 1/2, AJG -1 1/2, LAF -1 1/4, CATP -1 (S), FRED -1, SKYT -1, COFI. -1, MYG -1, BSE -1, AFC -1, DTE -1, LEN -1, VCI. -1, AHP -1, HGR -1, TOL -1, BJ -1, AGI. -1, FRED, CPL, TMC (S), LAF, ED, down/further (since last time)....remember, these are NOT "overnite" puts as trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.... you Must view the 200 DMA's of puttables declining, for potential support

hey, we gave you plenty of Puts winners, so far, lately, yes ? plenty more to come....remember, stocks often fall in 2 or 3 stages, even S.T., towards their 200 DMA....some people say it is Valuable, that my "PSYCLE sm" finds many winning puts at all, in this market, which I appreciate ....

Also, note, that, BLDPF, SPLN, SNPS, WCII., PFT, THI., IHS, fell even further, from where I gave them to you herein, near their highs....Remember, as with March/April, when we see more/better tops, WE will likely do much better than others, in Puts, at that time. We will will also have the money, and the emotional strength, to do so. Also, keep in the back of your mind, the continuing negative divergences between "the indexes" and "the 2,000 stocks within the markets", which, to me, begins to smack of a bigger top ahead, maybe not as bad in degree as 1987, but at least similar in timing ?

(note: ("sow") means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support")

* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): CNWK -12 (S), CTAS, MHK -1, BOCB, MTX, GDYS, SYY, GPSI., REP, ABS....of course, if you did not buy any Puts in these, in this section, near their recent highs, when I gave them out, you can choose not to view these/their charts, unless you want to see/learn their patterns.

....remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....and, some of the issues listed herein, are from previously suggested newsletters, as I said....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully learn from.

6) other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
Please be patient here, and, again, do not "force" trdaes, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to buy long, here....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....but do buy "some things" here, with close stops....also, it may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next sections here....mostly among EVB's ....check those charts you choose to view, but the Key message, is to see how many ARE forming EVB's here, as a measure of "timing"....also, remember, we do NOT "chase up"....if an issue is ALREADY up appreciably off its bottom/base/low, we do NOT buy it here....we wait for bigger pullback, or choose others instead, right ? Note, some new names added here....
bases, "techs": KLAC, JBL, CS,
bases, "health": CCLR, TOX,
"in other industry groups": no great bases here, just EVB's: among more depr. Farming/Fertilizer-relateds (BCU, PLP, GRO, RYC, CSE, IGL, EY), Prec. Metals (PAASF, ECO, RYO, CCH, and "Silver broke out S.T.", as predicted), Cyclicals (CUM, FCX, CCC, PKX, PLL, EX, AL, EY, N.), as "Basic Inds." (but, Not if any of them make new lows here)....a potentially important occurance, economically, given internal market history. (Please also see EVB's, below), but, as I intimated, it is still just Not a "super great" long-side list, here, but, there are still plenty more EVB-type bounces still likely, to buy, regardless....

And, while some depresseds Are good for a shot here, w/close stops as usual, diversified, etc., do NOT expect as large rises this time, as when I gave them out late '97/early '98 (nor, from late '95 to early '96), because they do NOT have bases here, just some with good EVB's, as with the others....and, was/am I, again, the first to "see" EVB's in some depr. "Techs/Asians", "Basic Industries", "Health", "Farm/Fert.", and, now, some "Depressed Foreign Closed-End Mutual Funds" , issues recently ? Also, some depressed REIT's might be interesting, for people desiring potential high-yields Plus boring stock rises, at some point ahead ? will let you know....Not yet, Not yet, but I am watching: AEC, HRP, CRO, CMO, ICH, NHI, MT, among those types of stocks down here....some of their hoped-for future "high dividend yields" may NOT fulfill, so need to do research with them, first, yes ? But, that said, I would still prefer "PSYCLE sm" stocks without the high dividends and low betas, dig ?

and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": ADPT, MDCO, VNT, WFR, GTR, APD, VNT, TOY, CY --- were taken Off....also see 2nd section of "EVB's" , below). These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....as I have been saying, a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or Puts....but we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7".

NOTE: New Section/List: "Longer-term Depressed Bases": QNTM, CUBE, CYMI., CCC, CS, remain o.k., when/if bought Only right near their Lows, with stops below, diversified, etc. One can also buy Only L.T., in-the- money Calls Options, where suitable, on these....some people like these for pension plans, or longer-term trades, but, when/if they breakout, they can rise, longer/more at times, dig ? Please view their 1-and-2-year charts....see it ?

* And, also, these are still, current, or, Potential, "EVB's", as "BDG's" (read that booklet):
remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much), as "EVB's", diversified, w/close stops below, added, CREAF, ALSC, EAR, EWS, TEI., to, VNTV, CUBE, ECO, AMD, AHG, NTN, NEO, TPS, EY, KLAC, GRO, CDE, NTN, CYMI., CCC, USI., TTT, VVUS, TTX, CCA, FCX, DIMD, PLL, BCU, PKX, JBL, RFP, SHG, NSM, SK, MT, and, the stocks listed above....(note, some are double-bottoms, some have V.S.T. bases, but most are EVB's).... also, Important note: some EVB stocks may form S.T. "W" patterns down here....but, most EVB's are "V" patterns, on huge volume, but they also can be a "W"....watch for that....some just take a bit longer to form, as per my "BDG/EVB Booklet" examples....which is fine, since we are NOT doing "overnite" trades, right ? also note, some EVB's have been improved, from "watching" list, to the actual "EVB" list, yes ? last, remember, we do NOT "chase up"....

and also Watching-- and this list is also growing, dig ? --- add, ANDW, to, EXBT, CRUS, CUBE, SYBS, GEMS, BRTL, VTA, VIAS, BDT, SEW, GML, MKG, AXC, SOC, WTT, DEN, IOM, GFI., IRF, CD, NN, NA, as "EVB's", but Not just yet, NOT yet, as they all need more work, technically....We shall see, and/but Only "if and when" these "set up" properly, technically, as buys, at some point (with the required high-volume catharsis, etc.)....but I am watching these all....but some are Not ready quite yet....especially those still hitting New Lows, as I said above....but, as I said above, some of these may/will form EVB "W" patterns ahead, which I will alert you to, if so....

and, again, took, ADPT, MDCO, VNT, WFR, GTR, APD, VNT, TOY, CY, off pot. Long Buy list, before "bt."

7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent highs Only, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them, right ?):
"Recent Puts Buys from Section (3)" above, plus:
added, AVTC, ASND, WHIT, TWMC, MEG/A, AHP, UCM, WLA, BDX, CLX, TWX, WLP, MLT, CSG, USS, RHI., POS, IAD, to, PSUN, PAYX, LHSG, ABS, GMSTF, OCENY, FORR, INTU, FORE, VISX, AMCC, COF, DTE, HGR, KEA, GPS, MDT, LAF, MTX, VCI., EE, NU, F., TOL, BBBY, ELNK, GDW, UTX, BCE, SYY, YHOO, SKYT, COFI., GPSI., EWG, AFC, SBL, SDW, ICIX, REP, CPL, CMS, BSE, WWY, BJ, ED, and, again, the recently bought-puts-on stocks in section (3) above, the last few NL's, as Puttables, near their highs Only....some are "EVT's" ("Exhaustion V (hook) Tops", the opposite of EVB's, get it ?), some double-tops....a little clearer, yes ?

Puttables list growing, even as "Long-side" list growing, again, illustrating the "Split" market. Note, more Retails, Financials, Utils., Media, plus, Health/Drugs, soem Brokers, and, of course, Comp./Techs, now included. Again, I am trying to put these into general "industry groups", where helpful.

and/But, just Not yet, in: none, (also see names of other "removed" stocks, in recent past NL's), all taken Off potential puts list, before "put"....remember, we do NOT buy puts, when/if issue is still making new highs.... yes, we will miss "some" right near their tops, but by waiting for double-tops and/or umbrella tops to form better, we will have fewer small cut losses, and we will still catch plenty of Puts over time, with less stress....again, when/if an issue breaks out immediately after I add it, I remove it, period. You must please check the recent charts of all potential Puts ideas, takes less than 10 seconds each, to make sure they have not broken out.

The best Puttable Industry Groups Sectors, continue to be among extended Financials, Big-name, high-PE, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Media, Consumer, Utility, Health, Airlines, and, on a rally, the parabolic Internet stocks....and now, perhaps, seeing some Extended Foods, as toppy soon ? Interesting, the groups are broadening, dig ? Again, issues are quickly removed, when/if they break above their potential rolling top formations (as above).... If one properly diversifies, and only does L.T., in-the-money puts, this is not a problem....as you can see, I do "pull" stocks off lists quickly, when they break their patterns, and you should, too....we will catch plenty more VG puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?) Read my "essay" on "How to exploit the Downside in Puts" for deeper coverage, and info. on the Patterns, etc. (as with calls, and all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).

8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
Besides all the lessons you hopefully have gleaned from all my past NL commentaries above, and from my (six) "essays/booklets", the next Lessons to learn, are to memorize the specific characteristics of each, of the at-least 7 (seven) sequential stages in my "PSYCLE sm....so, starting today, and each NL forward for a while, I will cover each stage, one by one....this is very, very valuable information----here goes:

"PSYCLE sm" stage 1: the depressed base....the key requirement for any potential buy, is that, a) it has to have been MUCH higher before, and, b) it has to have stopped falling, forming some kind of bottom/base/EVB....bases can be a long, flat "L" shape, a "saucer", a tight "long rectangle", or a double-bottom.... c) by nature, there MUST have been, preceeding, a period of "bad stuff" having to do with that company, and a high-volume bottom in stage 7....d) in the base, volume falls, and stays low, with much less interest in it, from the financial community, etc. e) down the road, and it may take months, we begin to see some volume "pops", within the base, as, eventually, most people (losers/bagholders) refuse to sell down here, and become L.T. holders, dig ? f) eventually, the supply of stock outstanding is mostly held by "higher-buyers", and, as "bargain-hunters' accumulate, at some point, provided the company survives, turns up again, and/or its industry group strengthens, etc. (subjective), the stock will pop, and begin to try to break above the depr. base levels....The idea, of course, is to get Long, as close to the "right side" of the base (pun intended), with a stop below recent lows, for protection....end of Stage 1 lesson....more to come.

Therefore, as I keep reiterating, It is also still better to buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed/EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....Similarly, it is better to TRY some "Puts/ options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to never do any....remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/ all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves....this is a Good thing....Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action, like we had recently with the Techs/Asians. The Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story"....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then (buy then ? a pun, get it ?), it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, NON-positiveness, when the patterns are aok, right ? Also, buying Puts can be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, as "insurance" or "protection, as well as for direct profit at times, yes ?

*** So, again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or put, stocks "Now", as long as their current prices are right near those given in Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....and, Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable/learnable lists, when/if those issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to your "Guide" to my NL, which will have been sent to you soon after you subscribed....obviously, this NL is a "work in process", a true lifetime learning tool for you, and not an "overnite junk NL", and I want to do my best for you....we are just beginning, and you will be receiving a ton of useable, learnable, specific information from here, and in my "essays/booklets", and in future special reports....thanks again, and spread the word.

*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "illiquid" than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) if those issues are also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)