1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, following-up, still long, unless otherwise noted):
6) other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent highs Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
My new newsletter (NL), and educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas, for the benefit of the people who are also coming over from it's Previous incarnation, to provide Them with a "seamless" transition, "on the fly", so to speak....and Also, to show YOU, as NEW subcribers, all the Recently/past suggested ideas, which I shared with my followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn. Remember, all my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's....and, eventually, all my "essays".
First, I hope you have at least bought long "something" among the Depressed Techs/Asians/Basic Ind. stocks I gave you last week (see section (3) and (6)), with close stops, diversifying a bit, at a minimum, with such recent baby/bathwater/ PSY-chological EVB action....be sure to read my essay on "Exploiting Exhaustion V Bottoms"....still a nicely "split" market, exploitable in BOTH directions simultaneously, which is a Good thing. For the umpteenth time, "the market" is neither "the averages", nor an important "thing" to even be concerned with....
Important: Any "new high" in the DJIA itself, is going to be UN-confirmed by internals, keep that in mind....Also, please do Not let any "Q, S, cut losses" among Puttables (or Longs) recently, prevent you from taking advantage....just a couple of bigger winners (which I have already given here, and will continue to give over time) will more than overcome a few very small losses among Puts, in the meantime....the Key, is not to quit prematurely, stay with the concept, learn the basic patterns, and DO something, which best fits your situational accounts needs ....Use this initial NL period, to LEARN as much as you can about my "PSYCLE sm", also read All my booklets/essays, and view/learn their patterns
Again, one important thing to LEARN, is to rise above the "only average person's," 1) illogical fear of buying Puts options near highs, and, 2) the "Media-created" fear-of-buying-near-short-term-lows, and, 3) to at least Buy Long, "something" at an "EVB", like we have had lately....whether "you" want to, or not, PSY-chologically, dig ? Looking to buy, Long, at least "something" in depressed stocks, here, where those stocks are right near bases/support (provided those bases/double-bottoms/patterns are intact, and those stocks are Not still hitting new lows) as "the 95 %" remain pretty antsy here, right ? With close stops, being diversified, one really has lower risk doing it this way....it is SUPPOSED to be somewhat uncomfortable/scary to do this, at extremes, yes ? That's one reason why so few people buy Longs near lows, and/or buy Puts near highs.... The pattern/sequence is most always the SAME, each time. (of course, the depressed "Techs" may provide better "bouncer" potential S.T. here, than some of the others suggested, but they are all similarly positioned regardless>. As I have said recently, you gotta have Bought long, "some things" among the depressed issues I have given out, with close stops.
KEY: This is still a nicely "SPLIT" market, providing both, long and short opportunities, simultaneously, for all types of traders/investors. So, "pick your potion(s)," long and/or short side, for your different accounts/needs. If you have never done Puts, this has been the time to learn how to do so, from me, using my "booklet/essay" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for the next S.T. top.
a) Last "El Nino" non-event follow-up: L.A.Times, 6/29: a chart, comparing rainfalls, for many California towns, from during the last El Nino ('82-'83) to that of the recent El Nino ('97-'98), and guess what ? Just as my "PSYCLE sm" predicted, and counter to all over-sensationalized/ fear-creating Media over-reports, the numbers (rain levels overall) were extremely close, many even the SAME, for both periods....yet, the Media and "experts" incorrectly had predicted/said, that THIS "El Nino" rain totals, would be much worse than ever, didn't they ? In fact, several big cities in Calif, got LESS rain, this "El Nino"....as I said before here, excepting for a few unfortunate exceptions of business/personal/physical nature, this recent "El Nino" did NOT affect "stocks" prices much, NOR commodities....Therefore, as I said from the beginning, it was NOT worth "Scenarioizing" about (you must read my "essay" on "Linkages"), and my "PSYCLE sm" pretty much Ignored all the mass reporting and incorrect predictions surrounding its supposed occurance....individual stock and commodity price patterns remained as they have ALWAYS been, period.
b) As I intimated in a recent NL, my "PSYCLE sm" was among the very few, may be the first, to point out, the "long-tem depressed base" in the Nikkei. stock average, which, in recent days, has indeed had a decent rally already, which no one in the Media has even noticed yet (normal S.T. stage 1 behavior, yes ?).... also, I see "silver" commodity price rising also, with oither "base metals", dig ? As my "PSYCLE sm" was, again, the first/only to foresee very recently herein, this whole "basic industries" area, has stocks prices bottoming....providing US, with potential long-side trading opportunities, technically, WITHOUT any "story" involved, dig ? Let other, mediocre investors/traders expend needless time/resources, trying to create "Scenarios" involving "basic industries/metals" here, with long dissertations about supposedly interrelated foreign countries' nuances, economically, etc....We will be ACTING, to take advantage of a normal "EVB", in such stocks, as listed in sections (3) and (6) below....
c) Last "Disney" stock follow-up, from a "PSYCLE reported/words" point-of-view (also taught further, in my "Scenarios" booklet): again, yesterday, I heard more than a few reporters incorrectly sensationalizing a small % drop in DIS stock, one saying, "DIS is down a whopping 6 points, to 106"...."whopping" ? for just a 5.3 % drop ? Gee, what word would he use to describe a 10 % drop ? or a 20 % drop ? Then, they report that, as if it is a big item (which it was/is not), several times during the day....and this, on CNBC, which, I am thinking of naming "Could Not Be Correct", get it ? Couldn't they have found a more helpful, meaningful item to report ? God forbid they might report, "DIS is down 6, to 106, but, remember, it was a 112. stock, so please put this in proper perspective".... anyway, these same guys loved it at 128, hated it at 103, and, note, anaylsts lowered their eps estimates--- at 104....think about that....
d) Wed. July 1st, the "Fed. Res. Board" interest-rate meeting gets overcovered again....while I realize, that, to huge entities with billions $$$ to place, knowing where I.R.'s might go, on an hourly basis, may be important at times, to THEM (but probably still not that big a deal)....but, for YOU and I, it should NOT be an item worth putting into the decison-making side of our brain.... The discount rate has remained at pretty-much the same rate, since early 1997.... Plus, the "first" rate move, often means little, in the big scheme of things.... and, when/if they ARE trying to "effect" something, they certainly have other methods of doing so, yes ? Last, as I cover at length in my "Media" booklet NOT to let into your brain, nor try to act upon), even when/if S.T. I.R.'s did change a little bit, exactly what actions would YOU take, with each and every asset you own, as a result ? See, it is futile, useless, which is why "PSYCLE sm" traders do NOT let this kind of item into our brains anyway....step back, gain perspective , save time by ignoring these kinds of items, and get better at acting (or not acting) and cutting losses when wrong, removing emotional weaknesses from the choosing/timing process. I know, it might upset or puzzle you, to think that even knowing beforehand, small I.R. moves are NOT important or helpful in making money long-side/put-side, but they are not, and never have been so.
e) Now, only AFTER they have fallen a lot vs. Property prices, do I see the recent decline in REIT stock prices, being reported by the always-late Finl. Media....interesting, since, as covered in my "Linkages" booklet, "the 95 %" tend to "link" all R.E. price movements together, not allowing for regional (i.e., like "I.G.R." within the stock market) differences, nor the recognition, that residential may move inedpendently of commercial R.E. Meaning, in order to have
f) I am hearing/reading too many Media reports, how the "internet search engine" stocks are "flying" (their quote, not mine), and yet, I see XCIT, YHOO, AMZN, LCOS, still, not really that much higher now, than their previous recent highs, a month ago, yes ? Absent overpaid takeovers/mergers, this is normal late stage 3 or early stage 4 "PSYCLE sm" behavior....head-and-shoulders tops may lie ahead ? Am just watching them out of corner of me eye....not acting yet....
f) today, I heard the first ignorant rumblings about the yearly supposed "summer rally"....oy....I really hate this one....LEARN THIS: think about this fact: almost every single "period", of almost every single year, in effect, there is a "seasonal rally"--- a period during which, prices generally rise--- and/but also, a "seasonal decline", in that same period, right ? There is, in effect, a winter rally, a spring rally, a summer rally, and an autumn rally, dig ? (and corresponding declines, but don't get me started). Anyway, historically, "summer rallies" (and, again, there is NO such "special thing like that") are NO better, no bigger, no stronger, than the rallies of any other seasonal period !!! As a matter of fact, guess when the BEST "rallies" have seasonally occured ? Yup, from Nov., to early Jan. Period. Actually, the period from May to July is, generally the worst time, along with the Sept. to Nov. period, but, again, one must NOT get "brain-locked" into ANY such "scenario" either....because, the one time YOU plan on it, it will not happen, dig ? so, enough on this...."PSYCLE sm" p.o.v.: IGNORE all references and inferences to any "summer rally" ....such talk is a waste of your valuable time, and is ONLY said by ignorant, misleading, reporters and analysts in the Media.
and, while we continue to give you a bunch of large % Puts Gains, our bunch of Puts losses have been each VERY small, as usual....by actually Viewing all past-year chart patterns on "Hypothetically completed" trades , you will hopefully "see" what we are looking for, to exploit, for probable declines.... Remember, we "PSYCLE sm" traders have NO emotions, especially where cutting Q, Small losses are concerned....I hope you appreciate that these very quick, very small losses we have taken are of no consequence....financially nor psychologically....You can always also go back and view "completed" trades from previous NL's, to "see/learn" more, and also illustrates why one must Diversify, buying at least a Few suggested ideas, at all times, right ? we are in this for the long haul....this keeps you in the game, for when those big gainers occur...."just get close", as I teach.
New Longs: OXHP @ 14 3/4, QNTM @ 20-, JBL @ 32, PNF @ 2 11/16,
BDE @ 2 7/16, SIII. @ 5.06, SFT @ 1 11/16, WCS @ 23+, LTV @ 9 1/2,
KLB @ 3 13/16, PPH @ 7 5/16, TOY @ 23+, FTPS @ 1 5/8, BMC @ 8-, MKG @ 29++, VTR @ 14-, IIR @ 11-, N. @ 14-, Z. @ 18+, CCH @ 5/16....
be sure to read the "BDG/EVB essay" I offer....inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for learning timing/pattern....oh, also, note, besides Depr. Techs, the recent potential long Buys list, is a mish-mosh, with few other real clear "industry Group Rotation" signals, yet....except, maybe, as some Energy, Prec. Metals, Basic Inds., Cyclicals, Alums., Copper, Fert., Steels, issues hold down here (see below) ? Remember, part of the "PSYCLE sm" has always, been, that, when I am correct, I will often be among the very few, or first, to "see" potentially emerging/ deteriorating issues/groups....and No One Else is even remotely mentioning these depr. stocks I.G.'s yet, dig ? Usually, I find several I.G.R. issues to exploit, but Not here, except for some "basic industries" and "depr. techs"....no biggie, though, since we'll just buy individual issues regardless (and some Puts, yes ?)
as I teach in my "essay/booklet" on I.G.R., we don't "have" to have clear I.G.'s in bases, when so many individual depr. issues have completed short-term EVB's anyway, etc. But, learn this: often, one or two issues in a depr. I.G. will set up, first, then, others in that I.G. will folow, over time, so I do watch for that, ahead....it's just, that, obviously, when several in one I.G. set up, we have more "power"....IMportant: at times, like may be occuring Now, when a whole connected "group of groups" (read details in my IGR "essay/booklet) sets up as EVB's, even without the desired "bases", we can be quite confident they will very liekly bottom just ahead, because so many related ind. groups loiok similarly, yes ? You must buy "something" among these new groups here, with close stops, diversified, etc. Last, also Important, when/if suitable for you for Calls Options, because they are not "gorgeous bases" yet, again, ONLY buy, their long-term, in-the-money calls, diversfying among at least a few at a MINIMUM !!! I do not want you looking back 3-5 months from now, wishing you had had the emotional/PSY-chological strength to buy some of these EVB's Long, diversifying, w/close stops anyway, for protection.
New Puts: TEF @ 140+, SNPS @ 46-, TCAT @ 62, ASND @ 50, CCSC @ 49-,
CVS @ 39+, MYL @ 32+, LOW @ 42-, FNF @ 39++, STB @ 63+, CCE @ 40+, CL @ 89+,
and/but, took, TWMC, CPWR, WHIT, CCU, BBY, MRK, SVM, WSM, off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately. Important: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested "put" stock will break its S.T. umbrella top pattern....I am assuming, if you View it's recent chart/action, before you consider buying any/those issues' Puts, you will see/know this, and therefore NOT buy that company's puts....this takes 10 seconds to check/ do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort patterns.... just trying to help....
....and/but, just Missed, ICIX, CTL, as puts, near recent highs, and, ALSC, CRUS, SYBS, SKM, CCA, TLK, PKX, VOX, GTR, as longs, near recent "EVB" lows, among recently given out stocks....check their patterns also, if you'd like, to learn, for the next time....I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" their patterns, for your benefit/ education....obviously, recent "SOLDS/completed trades/results/ actions" have been skewed towards the Puts side....the idea is to learn the patterns of previously done ideas, for the future....as I said, many "Techs", and Asians, and Metals, and "Basic Ind." stocks WILL bottom ahead, and we will be there when they form better bases/"EVB's"....some already S.T. bottoms, others just Not formed/ ready yet.... As I said, it may still continue semi-rough for a while yet, in some long-siders, but we ARE seeing many bounces as predicted herein, in the depr. issues I have given you....Again, while the Media "worries" about "earnings" impacts of various crises, the STOCKS of the companies involved will likely BOTTOM, even as "lower financials" are announced, right ? So, we'll also be watching for this ahead.... small, cut losses will not hurt us, regardless. And, by buying "some "PSYCLE sm" long-side stocks" down here, we should make some money regardless, yes ? This is already happening for you.
note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength"....("S") means Sell it (t)here....
and/or are sales on strength ("ms/sos") :
5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions :
(issues moving since last time, following-up, still in Puts, unless otherwise noted):
(note: ("sow") means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support")
* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): TCAT, MHK, SNPS, SPLN, STD, FISV, COFI., SOTR, CTAS, SPOT, GPSI., DNB, LOW, FNV, FNF, DST, AWA, TEF, CCB, LIN, LCI., AGI., IHS, HB, CI., Utils....if you did not buy Puts in these, in this section, near their recent highs, you do not necessarily have to view their charts, unless you want to view their charts anyway....obviously, getting some bounces off recent lows....
....remember, we either buy our puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....and, some of the issues listed herein, are from previously suggested newsletters, as I said....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully learn from. (also see recent past NL's here) took, TWMC, CBIZ, WHIT, BBY, MRK, CCU, off, before "put". (view their patterns to see what aborted Put patterns look like).
(again, I give you those, so you can view "puts patterns aborted before positions were Hypothetically established" as well, for your learning/benefit) i.e., view MAY, how it formed a nice rolling top, but late last week's pop over 65-66 area, broke the pattern, see it ? since initially would have had L.T. 65s puts, was a small loss of no consequence, but good to view as a learning illustration....
bases, "techs": QNTM, SMOD, SHVA, JBL, SGI., IIR,
bases, "health": OXHP, LIPO, OLGC, TOX, NVX, PPH, CTU
"in other industry groups": none really super clear yet here, though, more depr. Prec. Metals, Fertilizer, Energies, , Cyclicals, Papers, Steels, Coppers, as "Basic Inds.", improving technically....a potentially big occurance....
....and, I am also "watching" these, as potential buys, at some point ?: MADGF, SNETM, WKGP, ISSI., ICST, SIII., BDE, DGN, DEN, RFP, SFT, CAU, LTV, BGO, (as potential basers, or double-bottoms)....again, most are very depr. Techs. (please also see EVB's, below), but, as I intimated, it is just Not a "great" long-side list, here, still, but, more EVB-type bounces likely)
....while some depr. Techs ARE good for a shot here, w/close stops as usual, do NOT expect as large rises this time, as when I gave them out late '97/early '98 (nor, from late '95 to early '96), because they do NOT have bases here, just good EVB's, as with the "Asians"....and, am I, again, the first to "see" EVB's in some depr. "Basic Industry" issues here ?
Important: and/but, also, took these Off pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": ALSC, SAMC, DGSI., VSH, LFB, CDE, LLE, CHK, BDT, GRO, CDG, WTT, PLP, GSR, MAN, HPC, LFB, VTA, AZC --- also see 2nd section of "EVB's", below)....They just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....as I have been saying, a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or Puts....but we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST see the cathartic/high volume".
(and also watching -- and this list is also growing, dig ? --- CUBE, CYMI., IDTI., FPAM, PAIR, ADPT, RMDY, RDRT, DURA, ONC, MPP, IKN, RN, VC, but Not just yet, as they need more work, technically) (also note, still more depr. Techs, and Asian-orienteds, and, as I say elsewhere, more "Basic Industries") We shall see, and/but Only "if and when" these "set up" properly, technically, as buys, at some point (with the required high-volume catharsis, etc.)....but I am watching these all....but some are Not ready quite yet....especially those still hitting new lows, as I said above !
Also, note, how BROD, PHYC, REGI., PHV, CLCX, RMDY, DURA, PSSI., GEN, are already UP a bit, off their recent-past-given EVB's, as I predicted in my "essay" "How to take advantage of Big Down Gaps and EVB's, on the Long Side" (read it again to learn the valuable pattern), and in my recent past NL's here, which teaches you how to do this, and shows examples of such chart patterns....also, see a "very rare, second shoe drop" in Ikon Cp. stock, after bouncing off its' initial EVB....note, Ikon's low 1992-1993 was also around 13-14....so, eventually, it may form an EVB down here, dig ? Just needs some work, first....this concept of mine really has worked well, very often, in recent years past. So, DO note the growing list of potential EVB's....This is logical, and expected, after market drops like we just had, yes ? Please realize, that, as good as I and my "PSYCLE sm" have been at these EVB's, we never purport to be able to catch "THE" bottom on anything/everything....as I teach, we just try to "get close", always diversify, with close stops, not overpaying for options in portfolios, where suitable, L.T., in-the-money only, etc. Remember, these EVB's are still likely to be 2-3-4-month trades....
and/But, Not yet, in, High-priced Internets, TWMC, WHIT, CBIZ, CCU, MRK, CCU, (also see recent past names) taken off pot. Put list, before "put".... remember, we do NOT buy puts, when/if issue is still making new highs....The best Puttable Ind. Groups continue to be among extended Financials, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Media, Consumer, stocks (again, the problem, as I said, is that many have already dropped from their highs, and we never "chase" down in puts, once they are down from their highs), and, now, also Add, some extended Drug stocks again, Blue Chips, and Utilities on strength ? Again, issues are quickly removed, when/if they break above their potential rolling top formations (as above)....If one properly diversifies, and only does L.T., in-the-money puts, this is rarely a problem.... as you can see, I do "pull" stocks off lists quickly, when they break their patterns, and you should, too....we will catch plenty more VG puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?)
....note, recent Puttables list is a real mish-mosh, with few real outstanding Industry Group messages....this differs from the situation March/April, when mostly the Health-relateds and the Rails, etc., showed many similarly toppy issues simultaneously....My having removed many, and/or cut Q, S losses, from the pot. puts list, means something, yes ? It means "the market" (and you know how much I hate that term) might be bit stronger S.T., before forming another top (probably similar to that in the Spring) not too far down the road....Read my "essay" on "How to exploit the Downside in Puts" for deeper coverage of this phenomenon, and info. on which Options to buy, the Patterns, etc. (as with calls, and all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).
Besides all the lessons you hopefully have gleaned from all my past commentaries above, and from my (six) "essays/booklets", the next Lesson to learn, today, is, that, just because one never tried Options (properly), or one illogically fears lower-priced depresseds or "EVB's (though, why would you, since you had what it takes to desire my output), or you have never ignored 95 % of all externals/fundamentals before, or never employed "pattern recognition" this way before, does NOT mean one cannot change one's future in trading/investing....
And, therefore, it is still better to buy some stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed/EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's, and have occasional, small, cut losses, than to never do that at all.. Because, historically, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, if one properly Diversifies.... Similarly, it is better to TRY some "puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to never do any....remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves....this is a Good thing....Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action, like we had recently with the Techs/Asians. The Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story".... Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is no "sexiness" in stocks/groups near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", after they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is too late....
*** So, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or put, stocks "now", as long as their current prices are right near those given in Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....and, Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable lists, when/if those issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to your "Guide" to my NL, which will have been sent to you soon after you subscribed....obviously, this NL is a "work in process", a true lifetime learning tool for you, and not an "overnite junk NL", and I want to do my best for you....we are just beginning, and you will be receiving a ton of useable, learnable, specific information from here, and in my "essays/booklets", and in future special reports....thanks again, and spread the word.
*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "illiquid" than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) if those issues are also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)