1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent
Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, following-up, still long, unless
otherwise noted):
6) other, still-Depressed, Long Buys,
near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always
Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent highs Only, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them, right ?):
8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
My new newsletter (NL),
and educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended
stocks/ideas, for the benefit of the people who are also coming over from it's
Previous incarnation, to also provide Them with a "seamless" transition, "on the
fly", so to speak....and Also, to show YOU, as NEW subcribers, all the Recently/
Past suggested ideas, which I shared with my L.T. followers, so that YOU can then
also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see" what we are trying
to accomplish here, to further help you learn. Remember, all my NL's are
Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries"
areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and
"proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past
NL's....and, all my "essays".
Important: Remember, I am pretty Comprehensive, herein....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....most other NL's leave you hanging, yes ? Know, that there are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed: a) Stocks that can be taken advantage of, here and now, if right near given prices, b) Stocks which,
if they get back to where they were whwn originally suggested, remain/become tradeable again, and, c) Stocks which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and might also illustrate Industry Groups potentially shaping up, as Educational ideas....Try to "view" the past 1-year back charts of all ideas, for best learning of patterns....all ideas are followed up till "removed" or "sold", for your benefit.
NOTE: I will be appearing on KWHY, t.v., ch. 22, L.A., Calif., Friday (tomorrow) July 31, live, with Richard Saxton, from around 10:00 am, PST, to around 10:30 am, PST....am unsure how it will turn out, since it is first time for me in years, but I will try my best....now, what to wear....
FIRST: IMPORTANT--- until further
notice, the online URL, to get all future NL's, will be, first, "the URL for my
main web page", then add, each successive time, as a "suffix", forward slash,
that date, then "letter.html" , ok ?, as in, " /72398letter.html ", then,
" /72798letter.html ", then, " /73098letter.html ", " /80398letter.html " , etc., etc., got that ? every Mon., and Thu., after 11 am, PST, (2 pm, EST), for now....Hope this helps. Obviously, only subscribers will get this 'code', and, down the road, I am examining changing this format, so non-subscribers cannot figure this out, etc. Gleaning the message, is much more important then the medium, yes ?
second: Please appreciate, that I work very long and hard, to put ALL
applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and
actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will
be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm"
stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational
benefit....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in section (3) each NL.
third, hope you notice, I have been putting more actual "learning items"
into each NL....remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can
take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those
stocks remain aok....many EVB's may form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6)
below....also, note, due to recent cracks in many depresseds here, have either,
cut Q, small losses in some (no harm, in a properly diversified portfolio, and ,
again, do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate recent past perfomance forward
forever PSY-chologically/make this a bigger occurance than it is", etc.), and
took some stocks off pot. long buy list, as they broke potential patterns.... no biggie, yet is does make the potential buy lists smaller and more manageable
here, yes ?
Been telling you, this "Split" market, has now given us some nice Put gains, and, now, as I teach, "after the first hour of trading or two" Mon. and Tues., are often the end, of the very-short-term drops, in many issues, especially those which fell to/towards their 200 DMA's, dig ? So, Mon./Tue., we began nibbling at some depr. Techs, Long, those which had not broken their recent patterns, yes ?
So/But we are still playing close to the vest, meaning, keeping close stops, and NOT getting emotional nor excited, cutting Q, small losses, nor with Puts winners, and continuing to hold/raise some cash....But do notice, the many depr. issues I have you, which have NOT fallen recently....For the umpteenth time, "the market" is neither "the averages", nor an important "thing" to even be concerned with....
Important: Remember, again, I told you, early in June, that any "new highs" in
the DJIA and OTC, or other "indexes", were going to be quite UN-confirmed by the internals (A/D, and H/L figures), and hence, our recent drops....And, see the recent corrections, as expected, in many extended stocks, I gave you herein, yes ?
Of course, I am also upset with even the small cut losses I gave out, among some depresseds....BUT--- and this is crucial: please do NOT "label" any corrections as possibly a "bear" market....Re-read my booklets, as to why all "labelling" is Harmful to your psyche, and performance....
Also, please do Not let any "Q, S, cut losses" among Puttables (or Longs)
recently, prevent you from taking advantage of present/future ideas....just a
couple of bigger winners (some of which I have already given here, and will
continue to give over time) will more than overcome a few very small cut losses
among Puts/Longs, in the meantime....the Key, is not to quit prematurely, stay
with the concept, learn the basic patterns, be patient, we have just started,
and DO "something", diversified, w/close stops, which best fits your various
situational accounts needs....Use this initial NL period, to LEARN as much as you
can about my "PSYCLE sm", also read All my essays/ booklets, and view/learn their
patterns. IMPORTANT: Key: remember, all suggested ideas REMAIN buys near lows,
or puts near highs, (only) as long as their patterns do remain intact, even if
weeks or months pass !!! But when/if their patterns crack/break, they are
removed very quickly, as you know....
So, "pick your potion(s)," section (3), then (6) and (7), long and/or short
side, cash/margin, or only L.T., in-the-money options where suitable, for your
different accounts/needs. If you have never done Puts, this has been the time to
Learn how to do so, using my "booklet/essay" on How to Properly Exploit Puts,
benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next
intermediate S.T. top, which may best exist in the early Fall ?
a) funny, only now, AFTER another S.T. decline in the "biggies" stocks, now, analysts are "just beginning" to espouse less-than- positive comments about all things fundamental....late as usual, get it ? Tues. 28th, a CNBC reporter asks a useless analyst, "if this market is a bear, where do you go with your money, other than cash ?" hmmmm, has he ever heard of Puts options ? See, historically, they NEVER mention the best/only way to exploit declines, have you noticed ? And you NEVER hear it from brokerage people themselves, yes ? Also, as I teach in my booklets on "Scenarios/Linkages", and "Media", several media messages Tue. 28th, are actually mentioning Monica Lewinsky, as supposed "factor" "in the decline"....can you believe that ? For the umpteenth time, gang, please, learn to ignore, and see the folly/waste of such items, with respect to predicting likely future price moves of individual stocks. ...They also cling to the GM-strike "story", which, while that does/did have a "financial" effect on some companies dealing with GM, has NOT affected 2,500 individual stocks negatively here, has it ? it's just the "cover story" (like Asia was the "cover story" earlier 1998), that, as I teach in the booklet, every "market period" has, which "the Media" constantly brings up, of little or no D.U.F.P.P.V. Oh, and, Wed, beginning to hear the "Dow Theory" junk again.... gang, there is NO consistently predictive, historical evidence that that "supposed" theory works much....the exceptions-to-the-supposed-rule, well outnumber, the few times it may have worked, going back decades....a FACT.
b) Other recent Industry Group Comments: among the depr. Techs, a bunch are
going to maybe try to make S.T. double-bottoms ahead, like, DIMD, ALSC, CRUS, LIPO, ICST, UTR, IRF, (LIPO, DIMD, UTR, did), and others of similar ilk, technically ? Of course, as always, when/if they break below "the left bottom"
of the EVB "W", their patterns would abort....remember, we have NO attachments, when/if they break....also, note recent S.T. top, in some big-name Drug stocks ? Again, in a properly diversified portfolio, with puts where suitable, the "PSYCLE sm" way, one wants to have "one or two" of several long positions, a put in one extended Drug, and a put in one extended Tech., and a put in one extended Financial, and/or Retail, stock, etc., and long a couple of depressed Techs, and long a couple of Basic Ind. stocks, given here, which are still near their highs/lows, dig ? total positions, still 4- 8, as I suggest in "The Guide". ...again, we do NOT "just pick one/guess and put all our eggs in it" !!!
one MUST diversify....also, note, below, in how many Puts I gave you herein, stock stopped falling, right near their 200 DMA's....cool.
c) Wed., 29th, CNBC reporter, with an "incorrect analyst", said "weakness in Cyclical stocks is an ominous sign...." Gee, since they HAVE BEEN falling, for quite a while (and are close to stopping falling, as I am first to infer recently) , shouldn't he have said, "the weakness of Cyclicals "has been", instead of "is" ? Also, how can that "be" "an ominous sign", since they already HAVE BEEN falling, a lot, for months now--- yet the big-name stocks have been rising or at least holding up, right ? "Ominous," in what sense ? with respect to what else ? See what I have been saying to you ? You must learn, how to act, and not act, on such ridiculous remarks made by people who should know better, but never do....now, his comment, actually becomes a "PSYCLE sm" potential long buy signal, yes ? Or, at least a "look for an end to the decline soon" signal....Since, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 6 or 7, when, normally, these people "just begin to recognize a trend that has ALREADY BEEN IN FORCE, for a while", dig ? Also, was said, that, "the recent decline in Airline stocks portends a recession/bear market...." Huh ? How so ? where is their supposed historical evidence of that being so ? There is none.... See how stupid/useless/misleading 95 % of all Media messages are ? Where do they get this drivel ? Those items are just NOT 'linkable' (read my booklet on "Scenarios/Linkages"). Even when/if the DJTA might fall further, it has some support at 3000- 3050 or so, and is already down, from 3750, to 3240, dig ? so, that would make a kinda late signal, from the after-the-fact Media, yes ? (as usual) and, last, note the DJUA, which my "PSYCLE sm" was first/only, to give you here as Puttables, has fallen from 295, to 282 already....its support is, first, near its 200 DMA around 277, not much farther below Wed.'s lows, see it ? if broke below that level, then, maybe, 260 or so....LESSON: you must try to buy your Puts, BEFORE the Media gives Any hint of the potential move....please re-read my booklet on "How to Properly Exploit the Downside in Puts"....br>
d) I know we don't "do" commodities, but, if you get the chance, please view the past few months daily charts, of Coffee, and Cocoa, and see the saucer bases recently, with pops (like Silver, remember recently) ? They tend to move together....I'd need to see longer-term charts, though, before recommending.
e) L.A.Times, 7/28: "Las Vegas Tries to Build Out of its Slump": As you know, the tenets and signals of my "PSYCLE sm" help me predict all sorts of items, from probable future fates of sports and teams, to tops/bottoms in other trends, like, in May/June, 1996, when I, seemingly alone/first, predicted at least a S.T. pullback, or top, in "Las Vegas' fortunes", growth-rate, and commercial real estate. The signals I used back then ? I had been going to L.V. every spring, with friends who couldn't predict themselves out of a paper bag, and, upon my seeing ridiculous overbuilding (which ALWAYS happens to EVERY city/concept as a necessary evil near its top, as hubris overtakes logic), and my friends, and everyone I asked within the business and living there, were telling me, verbally guaranteeing, it would "continue to grow at this high rate forever", calling me crazy (as usual), and reading among ALL "supposed financial and R.E. experts" that L.V./gambling was "impervious to recession....look at all the foreign people visiting, etc....", "you're nuts, this will NEVER end", etc. And, then, a big client of mine refused several ridiculously high offers for his plot of land right across from a big casino off the strip, when I suggested how much better he'd do, selling that land dear, and putting the money into depressed stocks (dig ?), and, that the stocks of gaming companies forming "PSYCLE sm" tops, was enough for me, from/in Spring of 1996. Interestingly, Wed.'s article says the city is going to "build its way out of a slump"....hmmmm, gee, it seems they still do not under- stand a main principle of economics: that increasing supply (of hotels/rooms) into a "lower demand", is NOT a logical/proper course of action, yes ? In fact, that action may just exacerbate their reported "slump", yes ? Lesson: add PSY- chological hubris, to a lack of knowledge of historical cycles, and you have a recipe for, well, you know what....we shall see, but so far, my "PSYCLE sm" still remains the first, to call a top in L.V., Spring 1996.
f) note: interesting, how we hear much less, in the media, all of a sudden, about the "Asian crisis", as the weeks pass, yes ? Since my "PSYCLE sm" was first/only to predict their stage 7 bottom, early June, herein, none of the "Foreign Closed-end Mutual funds" of such companies has made a new low....even as many other stocks fall here....more proof, that one does NOT need to pour over tons of "fundamentals/stories", if one knows the PSY-chological cycles of human and media behavior, as they have always been much better timing indicators....and, yes, we have had some nice gains, and some cut losses, among depr. comp. techs., but no big damage therein....The media searches for other, more sensationalizable/ immediate stories to overreport, like, the unfortunate Capitol shooting, or Monica Lewinsky, or the recent "market declines" (other markets than the Asians, dig ?). Remember, their (C.E.F.M.F funds) stocks should rise, Before any reported "better economics/news" arrives....stay with the technicals, more than fundamentals.
g) On Monday, I wrote here: "while I still shy away from most "indicators", and/or "index" ramblings, we are already approaching "Oversold" levels, last seen, very recently, on, 4/3/97, 10/27/97, 4/27/98, 5/28/98, 6/15/98, on the McLellan Oscillator....while markets and individual stocks can remain "oversold", which is also subjective (read my booklets on this subject), for weeks/months, check those 5 past dates, to see what happened shortly thereafter (we got S.T. bottoms and some bounces)" Well, Mon./Tue. intraday, did indeed show many V.S.T. oversold bounces, yes ? Just a little helpful trick I learned that works often enough to take advantage of often....
h) Hey, guess what ? Monday, I got the first formal proof, that my "Beanie Babies" top call was right on (so what else is new ?)....two subscribers told me, the "B.B.'s" given out at the recent baseball All-Star game, which Was selling supposedly, for $ 650., just changed hands at only $ 250., plus, my Newspaper ad guy told me, today, he had heard some of his clients from the midwest, were actually planning on buying B.B.'s for their kids (now, not months ago) to "finance their college education", etc. Wow. As if it would be guaranteed, etc. Yeah, right... You may think this is not important, or true, but it IS germain, and true, to ALL investments, using my "PSYCLE sm". The basic patterns are very often the SAME, each top....also, locally, around So. Calif., I also notice a marked drop, in the number, and prices, of "B.B. ads" in the classifieds, dig ? neat.
Note: had to cut some more quick, Small losses, in some more depr."Techs/
Asians", as their patterns seemed to have broken, balanced by recent large %
Gains, in some similar issues, and more large Puts % gains, assuming you have diversified....When they break/broke below recent lows, as I teach in my booklets, we are OUT, the vast majority of the time....I just do NOT want any "bigger losses", right ? One can always get back in later....It is better to preserve capital, and one's PSY-chological health....as I say herein, some of these might form lower bases, and/or double-bottom "W" formations ahead, which, when/if they occur, I will let you know, as usual...."PSYCLE sm" tip: remember, you are going to feel most negative, and scared, right near S.T. exhaustion bottoms, yes ?
IMPORTANT: Also, see/learn/note, how AWA, ALK, SDW, TOM, JCI., AMES, NOBE, QTRN, CATP, SNPS, AJG, MTX, CKR, all approached/reached/stopped falling, right at, their 200-day moving avg....neat, huh....SEE IT ? this is how it is supposed to work for you/us....
and, while I still continue to give you some large % Puts Gains, even into a
previously non-bearish market, our Puts losses have been each VERY small, each, as usual, by actually Viewing all past-year chart patterns on "Hypothetical completed" trades, you will hopefully "see" what we are looking for, to exploit, for probable declines....Remember, we "PSYCLE sm" traders have NO emotions, especially where cutting Q, Small losses are concerned....These very quick, very small losses we have taken are of no consequence, in the big picture....neither financially nor psychologically....You can always also go back and view previously "completed" trades from previous NL's, to "see/learn" more, and this also illustrates why one must Diversify, buying at least a Few suggested ideas, at all times, right ? we are in this for the long haul....this approach keeps you in the game, for when those big gainers occur for us...."just get close", as I teach.
New Longs: (note, more/new names here):
BCU @ 5 11/16, TTX @ 2 3/16, CCH @ 5/16, CUBE @ 16+, TOX @ 5/16, ECO @ 2.06, CS @ 12+, JBL @ 31+, ALSC @ 2 5/8, UTR @ 11-, CREAF @ 11+, AL @ 26, KLAC @ 26-, QSII. @ 6-, FCX @ 15 1/16, CCC @ 10, NSM @ 12 7/16, DIMD @ 6-, GML @ 13-, AMD @ 16-, IGL @ 26-, CUM @ 50+, NEO @ 3.06, SGI. @ 11 3/16, BMC @ 7....
....some of these are "repeats"....some are New....and/but, Important: took, DANKY, VIAS, CYMI., NEM, VTA, CCA, EY, off pot. Long buys list, before "bt.
Important: note, I try to give "something for every type of desire/account/ objective", including real cheapies, and $ 5-10. stocks, and "big names" blue chips, for straight cash stocks, and marginables, Optionables, etc., so all my valued subscribers have choices, and for proper Diversification ---all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. Please re-read "the Guide" (green colored) to the NL, anytime.
Important: unless issues are listed specifically above, here in section (3) in a NL, they may NOT be buys right here....remember, a valuable part of the "process", is that we have "actionable right near here now" stocks (section (3)), and also, "watching for hopefully becoming ready to buy near lows in their depressed patterns soon" stocks (section (6))....Section (3) is for Now, Section (6) and (7) is for soon/later and learning....be sure to read the "BDG/EVB essay" (and all 6 booklets) offered....very inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for learning timing/patterns....
Remember, part of the "PSYCLE sm" has always, been, that, when I am correct,
I will often be among the very few, or even the first, to "see" potentially
emerging/deteriorating issues/groups....and No One Else is even remotely
mentioning the type of depr. stocks I.G.'s, I am, as potential longs yet, dig ?
Usually, I am able to find several I.G.R. issues to exploit, like the "Basic
industries" and "depr. techs" and "healths"....regardless, we'll still also buy
other individual issues Long, even if not in I.G.'s where others look the same
(nd some Puts, yes ?)....read my booklet on "I.G.R." again....I just do not want
you looking back, 3-5 months from now, wishing you had had the emotional/PSY- chological strength to buy some of these EVB's Long, diversifying, w/close stops anyway, for your protection. Just because some initially are Q, small, cut losses, does NOT mean this concept will not work, over time....it always has.
New Puts: WHIT @ 49-, WLA @ 81 1/2, SYY @ 26-, AHP @ 53+, F. @ 60, BBY @ 49+, HHS @ 26-, DTE @ 41 3/8, UTX @ 97, DL @ 25+, (also re-view recent past lists, this section).
and/but, took, OCENY, JNJ, CLX, off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested stock will break its S.T. umbrella top, or depressed base/double-bottom/ EVB pattern....I am assuming, if you View it's recent chart/action, before you consider buying any/those issues' Puts, you will see/know this, and therefore NOT buy that company's puts....this takes just 10 seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort patterns....just trying to help....
....and/but, we just Missed, PMTC, PKX, SRA, GFI., CD, as Longs near recent "EVB" lows, and, XEIKY, AVTC, ASND, MEG/A, CASY, YHOO, CMGI., CSG, WLP, IAD, and Aero/Def. stocks, as Puts near highs, among stocks recently given you herein.... I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" their patterns, for your benefit/education....
Also, viewing all the charts of the puts/longs here which we just "missed", also tells us, the market is providing more tops/bottoms, at that time, right ? So this also helps us know the nature of the market at any given time....that's why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....the idea is to learn the patterns of previously done ideas, for the future....
As I said, it may still continue semi-rough for a while yet, in some
long-siders, but we ARE seeing many bounces as predicted herein, in many of the depr. issues I have given you....Again, while the Media "worries" about "earnings"
impacts of various crises, the STOCKS of the companies involved will likely
BOTTOM, and rise, even as "lower financials" are announced, right ? So, we'll
also be watching for this ahead....small, cut losses will not hurt us,
regardless. And, by buying "some "PSYCLE sm" long-side stocks" down here, we
should make some money regardless, yes ? This is already happening for us.
and/but, then, PAASF, CYMI., BDE, MADGF, KLAC, PNF, TLK, CDT, FCX, VTO, LQ, POT, CS, EX, pb (pulling back)....again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed stocks", even in qualified plans/ pensions accounts, with stops, diversified....and again, you must buy at least FEW, always diversi- fying, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" That is Impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,000 issues ....maybe 5 or 10, long-side, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2.... One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of instant/S.T. gratification....
note: ("sos") means "Sell
On Strength" (on a bounce up towards where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)
and/or are sales on strength
("ms/sos"):
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time,
following-up, still in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
I gave you plenty of Puts winners, so far, lately, yes ? plenty more to come. ...remember, stocks often fall in 2 or 3 stages, even S.T., towards their 200 DMA. ...some people say it is Valuable, that my "PSYCLE sm" finds many winning puts at all, in this market, which I appreciate....
Also, note, that, BLDPF, SPLN, SNPS, WCII., ICIX, PFT, THI., IHS, fell even further, from where I gave them to you herein, near their highs....Remember, as I have been saying in previous NL's, ""as in March/April, when we see more/better tops, WE will likely do much better than others, in Puts, at that time. We will will also have the money, and the emotional strength, to do so. Also, keep in the back of your mind, the continuing negative divergences between "the indexes" and "the 2,000 stocks within the markets", which, to me, begins to smack of a bigger top ahead, maybe not as bad in degree as 1987, but at least similar in timing ?""
(note: ("sow") means, "Sell
long puts On next Weakness, towards support")
* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must
weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): CTAS, MHK -1, BOCB, DTE, WHIT, FRED, GDYS, GPSI., REP, F....of course, if you did not buy any Puts in these, in this section, near their recent highs, when I gave them out, you can choose not to view these/their charts, unless you want to see/learn their patterns.
....remember, we either buy
our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....and, some of the
issues listed herein, are from previously suggested newsletters, as I said....but
you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/aborted "PSYCLE sm"
patterns, to hopefully learn from.
bases, "techs": KLAC, JBL,
bases, "health": TOX,
"in other industry groups": no great bases here, just EVB's: among more depr.
Farming/Fertilizer-relateds (BCU, PLP, GRO, RYC, CSE, IGL), Prec. Metals
(PAASF, ECO, RYO, CCH, and "Silver broke out S.T.", as predicted), Cyclicals
(CUM, FCX, CCC, PKX, PLL, AL), as "Basic Inds." (but, Not if any of them make new lows here)....a potentially important occurance, economically, given internal market history. (Please also see EVB's, below), but, as I intimated, it is still just Not a "super great" long-side list, here, but, there are still plenty more EVB-type bounces still likely, to buy, regardless....
And, while some depresseds Are good for a shot here, w/close stops as usual,
diversified, etc., do NOT expect as large rises this time, as when I gave them
out late '97/early '98 (nor, from late '95 to early '96), because they do NOT
have bases here, just some with good EVB's, as with the others....and, was/am I,
again, the first to "see" EVB's in some depr. "Techs/Asians", "Basic Industries",
"Health", "Farm/Fert.", and, now, some "Depressed Foreign Closed-End Mutual
Funds", issues recently ? Also, some depressed REIT's/high-yielders might be interesting, for people desiring potential high-yields Plus boring stock rises, at some point ahead ? will let you know....Not yet, Not yet, but I am watching: AEC, HRP, CRO, CMO, ICH, NHI, MT, among those types of stocks down here....some of their hoped-for future "high dividend yields" may NOT fulfill, so need to do research with them, first, yes ? But, that said, I would still prefer "PSYCLE sm" stocks without the high dividends and low betas, dig ?
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they
might have been Hypothetically "bt.": DANKY, VIAS, NEM, CCA, VTA, EY, --- were taken Off....also see 2nd section of "EVB's", below). These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....as I have been saying, a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or Puts....but we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7".
NOTE: New Section/List: "Longer-term Depressed Bases": CUBE, CCC, EAR, CS, remain o.k., when/if bought Only right near their Lows, with stops below, diversified, etc. One can also buy Only L.T., in-the- money Calls Options, where suitable, on these....some people like these for pension plans, or longer-term trades, but, when/if they breakout, they can rise, longer/more at times, dig ? Please view their 1-and-2-year charts....see it ?
and also Watching-- and this list is also growing ? --- add, AMAT, EWS, TMO, to, CRUS, SYBS, BRTL, EXBT, BDT, SEW, SOC, WTT, DEN, PNF, BMC, IOM, GFI., IRF, CD, NN, as "EVB's", but Not just yet, NOT yet, as they all need more work, technically....We shall see, and/but Only "if and when" these "set up" properly, technically, as buys, at some point (with the required high-volume catharsis, etc.)....but I am watching these all....but some are Not ready quite yet.... especially those still hitting New Lows, as I said above.... but, as I said above, some of these may/will form EVB "W" patterns ahead, which I will alert you to, if so....
and, again, took, DANKY, VIAS, CYMI., NEM, CCA, VTA, EY, and the others not listed herein, Off pot. Long Buy list, before hypothetically "bt."
Puttables list growing, even as "Long-side" list growing, again, illustrating the "Split" market. Note, more extended Retails, Financials, Utils., Media, plus, Health/Drugs, some Brokers, and, of course, Comp./Techs, now included. Again, I am trying to put these into general "industry groups", where helpful. OH, and another valuable note: normally, NO amount of "reported good news" (other than a bonifide takeover offer), can prevent a stock in stage 7, or 6, from falling/further.... Most recent proof of this, is, as I said, among the Oils/Services stocks, which suckered a ton more unenlightened people in, after their stage 6, S.T. bottom, only to fall anew, as I told people they would....
and/But, just Not yet, in: OCENY, JNJ, CLX (also see names of other "removed" stocks, in recent past NL's), all taken Off potential puts list, before "put".... remember, we do NOT buy puts, when/if issue is still making new highs.... yes, we will miss "some" right near their tops, but by waiting for double-tops and/or umbrella tops to form better, we will have fewer small cut losses, and we will still catch plenty of Puts over time, with less stress....again, when/if an issue breaks out immediately after I add it, I remove it, period. You must please check the recent charts of all potential Puts ideas, takes less than 10 seconds each, to make sure they have not broken out.
again, The best Puttable Industry Groups Sectors, continue to be among extended Financials, Big-name, high-PE, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Media, Consumer, Utility, Health, Airlines, Internets, most, ONLY into a rally, right ? Interesting, the groups broadened before recent declines, dig ? Again, issues are quickly removed, when/if they break above their potential rolling top formations (as above)....If one properly diversifies, and only does L.T., in-the-money puts, this is not a problem....as you can see, I do "pull" stocks off lists quickly, when they break their patterns, and you should, too....we will catch plenty more VG puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?) Read my "essay" on "How to exploit the Downside in Puts" for deeper coverage, and info. on the Patterns, etc. (as with calls, and all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).
Besides all the lessons you hopefully have gleaned from all my past NL
commentaries above, and from my (six) "essays/booklets", the next Lessons to
learn, are to memorize the specific characteristics of each, of the at-least 7
(seven) sequential stages in my "PSYCLE sm....so, starting today, and each NL
forward for a while, I will cover each stage, one by one....this is very, very
valuable information--- here goes:
"PSYCLE sm" stage 2: the breakout, and pullback, from the depressed base: first, realize, each 7 staged "PSYCLE sm" can be a few months, a few years, or even many years time...but the patterns remain the same, regardless of one's time period/perspective. After forming a base for a while (or any of the other bottom patterns I mentioned here last time), often, a stock will pop, up, WITHOUT ANY RELATED FINANCIAL/NEWS/STORY/ITEMS, just primarily due to the supply/demand/ technical characteristics of its' stage 1 base....if a flat rectangle or base formed, stage 2, represents, first, the initial rise, above recent highs of the base, usually on higher volume, as many "breakout buyers" meet "breakout sellers", dig ? Often, the intial rise above the previous depressed prices, ENDS, often quite quickly (just as "the 95 %" "begin" to notice it, dig ? late, as usual, right ?), and,
also in stage 2, the stock then PULLS BACK (pb) towards previous base area, again, frustrating/upsetting "breakout buyers", and providing a nice S.T. sell point for those smart enough to have bought IN the base, BEFORE the breakout, got that ? Recent examples of this, were, QSII., SGI., SMOD, all which had S.T. stage 1 bases, then popped up/out, only to fade, and pb into the base again, see it ? Unless the previous base was real long, ofetn, the stage 2 pop, does NOT Last !!!! The bounce (and it could be 25-75 % higher) just serves to excite people who have not removed all emotion from this process....trapping them in that stock, longer.
Last, as to "where" the likely resistance might be coming out of the stage 1 base, into the stage 2 initial rise: this depends on the character of the chart pattern, previous....how long the previous base was, what was the nature of the big decline which preceded the stage 1 base, etc., dig ? A bigger decline, will normally lead to a bigger stage 2 rise, and vice-versa, with a smaller previuous drop....logical, obvious. i.e., the Semi./Techs had decent rises earlier in 1998, from nice bases, but their bases were only a few months long, so we did NOT expect "big" rises, intially....just to previously broken-down from levels....makes sense
Lesson: if the previous big drop was quicker, and led to an extended base, eventually, its 200 DMA will be low enough to constrain/stop the stage 2 rise, dig ? If the previous drop was slower, or smaller, then, by the time the stock forms the depr. base, the 200 DMA will be close to the stock's price, and the initial rise from stage 1, into stage 2, will often break above the 200 DMA (which is so low, it doesn't take much of a rise to do so, dig ?), making the likely resistance in stage 2, the "previous breakdown level"....i.e., jan. '98, "AMD" had saucer base, around 18. buy, rose to its 200 DMA around 27., where it stopped then pulled back....but, dec. '97, "IMG" had S.T. saucer base, around 8., buy, rose above its 200 DMA, and stopped at previous resistance, around 12., see it ? see, AMD's 200 DMA was still way above its base, but IMG's 200 DMA was right near its base....hope this helps....so now you have the two main types of stage 2 rises, illustrated for you....next time here, "PSYCLE sm" stage 3....
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better to buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....Similarly, it is better to TRY some "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to never do any....remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves....this is a Good thing. ...Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action, like we had recently with the Techs/Asians. The Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then (buy then ? a pun, get it ?), it is/will be too late....
One must buy into NON-sexiness, NON-positiveness, when the patterns are aok,
right ? Also, buying Puts can be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, as "insurance" or "protection, as well as for direct profit at times, yes ?
*** So, again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or
put, stocks "Now", as long as their current prices are right near those given
in Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....Section (3)....and, Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable/learnable lists, when/if those issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to your "Guide" to my NL, which will have been sent to you soon after you subscribed.... obviously, this NL is a "work in process", a true lifetime learning tool for you, and not an "overnite junk NL", and I want to do my best for you....we are just beginning, and you will be receiving a ton of useable, learnable, specific information from here, and in my "essays/booklets", and in future special reports....thanks again, and spread the word.
*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you
a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be
done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "illiquid" than
others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my
valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for
various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people
would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly,
right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more
quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE
sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are "worth acting on"
at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) if
those issues are also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)