1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent
Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, following-up, still long, unless
otherwise noted):
6) other, still-Depressed, Long Buys,
near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always
Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent highs Only, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?):
8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
My new newsletter (NL),
and educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended
stocks/ideas, for the benefit of the people who are also coming over from it's
Previous incarnation, to also provide Them with a "seamless" transition, "on the
fly", so to speak....and Also, to show YOU, as NEW subcribers, all the Recently/
Past suggested ideas, which I shared with my L.T. followers, so that YOU can then
also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see" what we are trying
to accomplish here, to further help you learn. Remember, all my NL's are
Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries"
areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and
"proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past
NL's....and, all my "essays".
Important: Remember, I am pretty Comprehensive, herein....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....most other NL's leave you hanging, yes ? Know, that there are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed: a) Stocks that can be taken advantage of, here and now, if right near given prices, b) Stocks which,
if they get back to where they were whwn originally suggested, remain/become tradeable again, and, c) Stocks which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and might also illustrate Industry Groups potentially shaping up, as Educational ideas....Try to "view" the past 1-year back charts of all ideas, for best learning of patterns....all ideas are followed up till "removed" or "sold", for your benefit.
FIRST: IMPORTANT--- until further
notice, the online URL, to get all future NL's, will be, first, "the URL for my
main web page", then add, each successive time, as a "suffix", forward slash,
that date, then "letter.html" , ok ?, as in, " /73098letter.html ", then, /80398letter.html ", " /80698letter.html " , etc., etc., got that ?
every Mon., and Thu., after 11 am, PST, (2 pm, EST), for now....Hope this helps. Obviously, only subscribers will get this 'code', and, down the road, I am examining changing this format, so non-subscribers cannot figure this out, etc. Gleaning the message, is much more important then the medium, yes ?
second: Please appreciate, that I work very long and hard, to put ALL
applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and
actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will
be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm"
stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational
benefit....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in section (3) each NL.
third, hope you notice, I have been putting more actual "learning items"
into each NL....remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can
take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those
stocks remain aok....many EVB's may form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6)
below....also, note, due to recent cracks in many depresseds here, have either,
cut Q, small losses in some (no harm, in a properly diversified portfolio, and ,
again, do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate recent past perfomance forward
forever PSY-chologically/make this a bigger occurance than it is", etc.), and
took some stocks off pot. long buy list, as they broke potential patterns.... no biggie, yet is does make the potential buy lists smaller and more manageable
here, yes ? Gosh,. I hope you cut long losses, and bought some PUTS, recently
Been telling you, this "Split" market, has now given us more nice Put gains,
But we are still playing close to the vest, meaning, keeping close stops, and NOT getting emotional nor excited, cutting Q, small losses, nor with Puts winners, and continuing to hold/raise some cash....But do notice, the many depr. issues
I have you, which have NOT fallen, and have even risen, recently....For the umpteenth time, "the market" is neither "the averages", nor an important "thing" to even be concerned with....Note how, recently, the daily changes in "Aberages" are mneaningless--- they tell us NOTHING about what is really going on WITHIN the markets, do they ? Only by following the individual stocks WITHIN, visually, can one come closer to knowing what is happenening, and what best to do, yes ?
Important: Remember, again, I told you, early in June, that any "new highs" in the DJIA and OTC, or other "indexes", were going to be quite UN-confirmed by the internals (A/D, and H/L figures), and hence, lead to our recent drops....And, see the recent corrections, as expected, in many extended stocks, I gave you herein, yes ? Of course, I am also upset with even the small cut losses I gave out, among some depresseds....BUT--- and this is crucial: please do NOT "label" any corrections as possibly a "bear" market....who cares....just try to do what the "PSYCLE sm" says, and ignore "market talk"....and Re-read my booklets,
as to why all "labelling" is Harmful to your psyche, and performance....
Also, please do Not let any "Q, S, cut losses" among Puttables (or Longs)
recently, prevent you from taking advantage of present/future ideas....just a
couple of bigger winners (some of which I have already given here, and will
continue to give over time) will more than overcome a few very small cut losses
among Puts/Longs, in the meantime....the Key, is not to quit prematurely, stay
with the concept, learn the basic patterns, be patient, we have just started,
and DO "something", diversified, w/close stops, which best fits your various
situational accounts needs....Use this initial NL period, to LEARN as much as you
can about my "PSYCLE sm", also read All my essays/ booklets, and view/learn their
patterns. IMPORTANT: Key: remember, all suggested ideas REMAIN buys near lows,
or puts near highs, (only) as long as their patterns do remain intact, even if
weeks or months pass !!! But when/if their patterns crack/break, they are
removed very quickly, as you know....
Remember, we do NO "market index predictions," ever....but, I expect you to notice, for instance, when I add a lot more Puttables, or more Longs, as a template, for gleaning the tambor of the "overall market". When some depresseds began to crack, and added more Puts, that shoudl have told you what was coming, yes ? Logical, relaxed, simple....
So, "pick your potion(s)," first, from section (3), then (6) and (7), long and/or short side, for cash, or on margin, or only L.T., in-the-money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you have never done Puts, this has been the time to Learn how to do so, using my "booklet/essay" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. top, which may best exist in the early Fall, after the rallies after this decline ?
a) Other recent Industry Group Comments: note, I was, again, among the very few, to begin to go bearish/toppy on the Extended Drug/Health stocks most recently here....remember, you want to learn to buy Puts INTO/after rallies/bounces, and not too far off their highs....and that industry among the very few, still up there, right ?
b) heard a big analyst at Salomon, late 7/30, on CNBC, suggest, amazingly, that he was "shying away from the depressed secondary techs" here, "because the big money will continue to go to the most liduid stocks up here"....wow....whether or not he turns out to be correct, his "Reason" (please re-read my Booklet on Scenarios/Reasons") is ridiculous, as usual....LEARN, that, relative liquidity in and of itself, is of NO "D.U.F.P.P.V.", with respect to the likelihood of any predictable future stock price moves....I can explain why this is so, historically, another time, if you wish....but his REASON is misleading, and WRONG....think about this fact: "if" "liquidity was "helpful", then no cheap, depressed stoicks would ever have high % price rises quickly---- but they DO, all the time, yes ? Also, no "big, liquid stocks" would ever have big drops, right ? But they DO, all the time, yes ? 'nuff said....another incorrectly assumed non-fact, proven again, by my "Psycle sm".
c) also, 8/1, I.B.D., Morgan Stanley cuts Agco (AG) from a "strong buy" to a "neutral"....hmmmm ....AHG stock falls, from 34+ to 12+ in less than a year, and now, AFTER it has gotten decimated, they go "neutral"....not bearish mind you, no hedging, no protecting, at any time, all the way, down, when they could have easily just viewed the chart, as it cracked....are we to assume it remained a "strong buy" all the way down, till yesterday ? please read my "Scenarios/ Linkages" booklet for more on this, but you already know how bad analysts has been, 'nuff said....
d) L.A.Times, 7/20: article entitled, "Investors' earnings fears may have come and gone" was a beautiful CONTRARY (i.e., S.T. bearish) indicator, PSY-chologically, dig ? "the 95 %" are so wrapped up in "scenarioizing/linking" eps with stock prices, INCORRECTLY, as I have proven to people for 20 years now, and, second, in perfect S.T. "PSYCLE sm" stage 5 behavior, those people improperly viewed the initial drop from early June, as "no biggie, when it get sback up to what I paid, or the recent past highs, I will sell", as, from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v., normal "famous last words", dig ? Well, in many stocks, they may NOT get the chance to sell, higher, yes ? Not only individuals were wrong so far (again). ....also, a mediocre analyst at Paine Webber, said, "investors should be relieved by the earnings reports that flash on their screens in July." Huh ? Is he looking at then many more disappointing eps announcements which are leading to price DROPS in many stocks recently ? hey, many stocks are even fallling, INTO higher eps numbers, right ? He goes on to predict many "positive earnings surprises in July"....wrong...more like, surprises, in stocks FALLING, regardless of misleading, useless eps announcements, yes ? As I teach, earnings canNOT be automatically, predictably, consistently somehow "linked" to future stock price moves. period.
e) Thu., 11;30, pst, CNBC reporter said, "Clorox is soaring, up 7, to 103, IBM surged 3, to 131., and Lucent is rocketing again, up 5, to 104....this one is a rocker"....huh ? NONE of those terms are accurate, all imply incorrect recent price moves in fact, and if she had just viewed their charts, she would have seen, LU is still LOWER, Thu., than it was a couple of weeks previous, and therefore, is NOT even "rocketing" any more, dig ? i.e., it is not even up any more, right ? All those "reporters' words" elicit unnecessary/misleading emotion, yes ? also, realize, the Media is 95 % bullish-leaning, always, yes ? so, with the Mar/Apr. tops, and June/July tops, they are chomping at any chance to report any pops in the extended issues, dig ? Even if they have to mislead people into staying in or buying stocks which may be topping, dig ?
f) another technically ignorant, irresponsible CNBC reporter, Mon. 3rd, kept saying all morning, that certain stocks were "below their 50-day moving average", and, that that was, supposedly, a "negative technical conditions", and that "people don't like buying stocks which are below their 50 DMA, as an indicator". OY. First, this guy doesn't know the first thing about chart pattern recognition, second, here's yet another example of a Media source overreporting an item which, to them sounds, cute, or different, just for the sake of reporting a cute or different item, and third, as I teach in my Booklets, the Media menitons an item WITHOUT necessary "perspective", that is, witout also showing the recent past price chart, the 50, and 200, DMA's, etc., if he wished to truly report something of value, right ? He also says the 50 DMA is an "Indicator," when, by itself, it is NOT. Last, depressed, basing stocks below 50 DMA, will differ, from extended stocks below their 50 DMA, dig ? But, of course, they don't tell us that....Think about it. The best long Buys ARE necesaarily BELOW their 200 DMA when we buy them, yes ? But this guy misleads "the 95 %"....Please learn how to process Media messages better....
g) interesting, since I called the S.T. top in some Internet ind. issues, the one everyone asked me about, was the only one I specifically did NOT recommend highly as best for Puts, yet....YHOO....note, it STILL has not broken the 170's to the downside....while LCOS, XCIT, ELNK, which I did give you herein, did fall big, S.T., yes ? Sure, YHOO certainly IS super extended, but it was just not ready yet....too late now for those, yes ? Hopefully, we will get chance to catch YHOO
in puts near highs ?
h) quick follow-up from recent NL: notice, Coffee futures are way up, real quickly, as I suggested to you, yes ? but, so far, Cocoa, may have broken the pattern, check them out....all in the name of "PSYCLE sm" research....
Note: had to cut some more quick, Small losses, in some more depr."Techs/
Asians", as their patterns seemed to have broken, balanced by recent large %
Gains, in some similar issues, and more large Puts % gains, assuming you have diversified....When they break/broke below recent lows, as I teach in my booklets, we are OUT, the vast majority of the time....I just do NOT want any "bigger losses", right ? One can always get back in later....It is better to preserve capital, and one's PSY-chological health....as I say herein, some of these might form lower bases, and/or double-bottom "W" formations ahead, which, when/if they occur, I will let you know, as usual...."PSYCLE sm" tip: remember, you are going to feel most negative, and scared, right near S.T. exhaustion bottoms, yes ?
IMPORTANT: Also, see/learn/note, how TOL, AWA, ALK, SDW, TOM, JCI., AMES, NOBE, QTRN, CATP, SNPS, AJG, MTX, CKR, etc., all approached/reached/stopped falling, right at, their 200-day moving avg....neat, huh....SEE IT ? this is how it is supposed to work for you/us....
and, while I still continue to give you some large % Puts Gains, even into a
previously non-bearish market, our Puts losses have been each VERY small, each, as usual, by actually Viewing all past-year chart patterns on "Hypothetical completed" trades, you will hopefully "see" what we are looking for, to exploit, for probable declines....Remember, we "PSYCLE sm" traders have NO emotions, especially where cutting Q, Small losses are concerned....These very quick, very small losses we have taken are of no consequence, in the big picture....neither financially nor psychologically....You can always also go back and view previously "completed" trades from previous NL's, to "see/learn" more, and this also illustrates why one must Diversify, buying at least a Few suggested ideas, at all times, right ? we are in this for the long haul....this approach keeps you in the game, for when those big gainers occur for us...."just get close", as I teach.
New Longs: (note, more/new names here):
BCU @ 5 9/16, TTX @ 2 3/16, CCH @ 5/16, TOX @ 5/16, ECO @ 2.06, CCC @ 10,
GML @ 13-, NEO @ 3.06, SGI. @ 11+, TPS @ 0.93, BMC @ 7 1/8....
....some of these are "repeats"....some are New....and/but, Important: took, SHG, CSE, AG, off pot. Long buys list, before "bt. ....Important: note, I try to give "something for every type of desire/account/ objective", including real cheapies, and $ 5-10. stocks, and "big names" blue chips, for straight cash stocks, and marginables, Optionables, etc., so all my valued subscribers have choices, and for proper Diversification ---all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. Please re-read "the Guide" (green colored) to the NL, anytime.
Important: unless issues are listed specifically above, here in section (3) in a NL, they may NOT be buys right here....remember, a valuable part of the "process", is that we have "actionable right near here now" stocks (section (3)), and also, "watching for hopefully becoming ready to buy near lows in their depressed patterns soon" stocks (section (6))....Section (3) is for Now, Section (6) and (7) is for soon/later and learning....be sure to read the "BDG/EVB essay" (and all 6 booklets) offered....very inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for learning timing/patterns....
Remember, part of the "PSYCLE sm" has always, been, that, when I am correct,
I will often be among the very few, or even the first, to "see" potentially
emerging/deteriorating issues/groups....and No One Else is even remotely
mentioning the type of depr. stocks I.G.'s, I am, as potential longs yet, dig ?
Usually, I am able to find several I.G.R. issues to exploit, like the "Basic
industries" and "depr. techs" and "healths"....regardless, we'll still also buy
other individual issues Long, even if not in I.G.'s where others look the same
(nd some Puts, yes ?)....read my booklet on "I.G.R." again....I just do not want
you looking back, 3-5 months from now, wishing you had had the emotional/PSY- chological strength to buy some of these EVB's Long, diversifying, w/close stops anyway, for your protection. Just because some initially are Q, small, cut losses, does NOT mean this concept will not work, over time....it always has.
New Puts: NOK/A @ 90, LVLT @ 83+, SPLS @ 34-, PACC @ 27, EESI. @ 35-,
SEIC @ 76, RHI. @ 56-, SHR @ 94-, MTC @ 58-, PNU @ 48-, DTE @ 41+, AHP @ 53+,
BNI. @ 105-, GM @ 74-, (also re-view recent past lists, in this section).
some are new, some are repeats....and/but, took, OCENY, JNJ, CLX, off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested stock will break its S.T. umbrella top, or depressed base/double-bottom/ EVB pattern....I am assuming, if you View it's recent chart/action, before you consider buying any/those issues' Puts, you will see/know this, and therefore NOT buy that company's puts....this takes just 10 seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort patterns....just trying to help....
....and/but, we just Missed, TMO, VTO, GFI., IP, as Longs near recent "EVB" lows, and, MNMD, PHHM, TWMC, ASND, MCIC, LGTO, EAII., WWY, BFO, FON, CSG, MBI., and Aero/Def. stocks, as Puts near highs, among stocks recently given you herein....I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" their patterns, for your benefit/ education.
Also, viewing all the charts of the puts/longs here which we just "missed", also tells us, the market is providing more tops/bottoms, at that time, right ? So this also helps us know the nature of the market at any given time....that's why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....the idea is to learn the patterns of previously done ideas, for the future....
As I said, it may still continue semi-rough for a while yet, in some
long-siders, but we ARE seeing many bounces as predicted herein, in many of the depr. issues I have given you....Again, while the Media "worries" about "earnings"
impacts of various crises, the STOCKS of the companies involved will likely
BOTTOM, and rise, even as "lower financials" are announced, right ? So, we'll
also be watching for this ahead....small, cut losses will not hurt us,
regardless. And, by buying "some "PSYCLE sm" long-side stocks" down here, we
should make some money regardless, yes ? This is already happening for us.
and/but, then, BMC 7 3/4 up 3/4 (sos), PNF 3 1/4 up 1/2, PAASF, CYMI., KLAC, BDE, MADGF, TLK, CDT, VTO, RYC, CCC, JBL, LQ, pb (pulling back).... again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed stocks", even in qualified plans/pensions accounts, with stops, diversified....and again, you must buy at least FEW, always diversi- fying, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" That is Impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,000 issues ....maybe 5 or 10, long-side, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2.... One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of instant/S.T. gratification....
note: ("sos") means "Sell
On Strength" (on a bounce up towards where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)
and/or are sales on strength
("ms/sos"):
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time,
following-up, still in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
I gave you plenty of Puts winners, so far, lately, yes ? plenty more to come. ...remember, stocks often fall in 2 or 3 stages, even S.T., towards their 200 DMA. ...some people say it is Valuable, that my "PSYCLE sm" finds many winning puts at all, in this market, which I appreciate....
Important: Also, note, that, BLDPF, SPLN, SNPS, BBBY, BOOL, CKFR, CNET, WCII., ICIX, PFT, UHS, KMT, SDW, ALK, CMT, AJG, SGE, TMC, THI., IHS, HB, all fell even further, from where I gave them all to you herein, near their highs....even DSL, SKO, which I gave you here, fell finally ....view their charts to "see" previously-formed top patterns if you wish....Remember, as I have been saying in previous NL's, ""as in March/April, when we see more/better tops, WE will likely do much better than others, in Puts, at that time. We will will also have the money, and the emotional strength, to do so. Also, keep in the back of your mind, the continuing negative divergences between "the indexes" and "the 2,000 stocks within the markets", which, to me, begins to smack of a bigger top ahead, maybe not as bad in degree as 1987, but at least similar in timing ?""
(note: ("sow") means, "Sell
long puts On next Weakness, towards support")
* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must
weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): LHSPF -3, MHK -2, WHIT, FRED, GDYS, LSHG, COFI., MYG, CKR, SYY, CPL....of course, if you did not buy any Puts in these, in this section, near their recent highs, when I gave them out, you can choose not to view these/their charts, unless you want to see/learn their patterns.
....remember, we either buy
our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....and, some of the
issues listed herein, are from previously suggested newsletters, as I said....but
you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/aborted "PSYCLE sm"
patterns, to hopefully learn from.
bases, "techs": KLAC, JBL,
bases, "health": TOX,
"in other industry groups": no great bases here, just EVB's: among more depr.
Farming/Fertilizer-relateds (BCU, PLP, GRO, RYC, IGL), Prec. Metals (ECO, RYO, CCH, and "Silver broke out S.T.", as predicted), Cyclicals (CCC, PKX), as "Basic Inds." (but, Not if any of them make new lows here)....a potentially important occurance, economically, given internal market history. (Please also see EVB's, below), but, as I intimated, it is still just Not a "super great" long-side list, here, but, there are still plenty more EVB-type bounces still likely, to buy, regardless....
And, while some depresseds Are good for a shot here, w/close stops as usual,
diversified, etc., do NOT expect as large rises this time, as when I gave them
out late '97/early '98 (nor, from late '95 to early '96), because they do NOT
have bases here, just some with good EVB's, as with the others....and, was/am I,
again, the first to "see" EVB's in some depr. "Techs/Asians", "Basic Industries",
"Health", "Farm/Fert.", and, now, some "Depressed Foreign Closed-End Mutual
Funds", issues recently ? Also, some depressed REIT's/high-yielders might be interesting, for people desiring potential high-yields Plus boring stock rises, at some point ahead ? will let you know....Not yet, Not yet, but I am watching: AEC, HRP, CRO, CMO, ICH, NHI, MT, among those types of stocks down here....some of their hoped-for future "high dividend yields" may NOT fulfill, so need to do research with them, first, yes ? But, that said, I would still prefer "PSYCLE sm" stocks without the high dividends and low betas, dig ?
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they
might have been Hypothetically "bt.": CSE, SHG, AG, --- were taken Off....also see 2nd section of "EVB's", below). These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....as I have been saying, a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or Puts....but we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7".
and also Watching-- and this list is also growing ? --- add, VLSI., ADPT, LSI., MOT, GCR, BIR, TDF, MDM, UST, EVV, CYP, MMG, HA, to, PMTC, EWS, TMO, BRTL, EXBT, SEW, WTT, DEN, CUBE, AHG, PNF, TTT, USI., NTN, CAU, BMC, IOM, IRF, NN, as "EVB's", but Not just yet, NOT yet, as they all need more work, technically.... and, not when/if they make new lows....also, some depr. Oil. Svc. stocks (ESV, PKD, PDE, BDI., UTI.) seem close to ending predicted huge decline, but it may still be a bit early, for them, though....We shall see, and/but Only "if and when" these "set up" properly, technically, as buys, at some point (with the required high-volume catharsis, etc.)....but I am watching these all....but some are Not ready quite yet....especially those still hitting New Lows, as I said above.... but, as I said above, some of these may/will form EVB "W" patterns ahead, which I will alert you to, if so....
and, again, took, SHG, CSE, AG, and the others not listed herein, Off pot. Long Buy list, before hypothetically "bt."
Puttables list growing, even as "Long-side" list growing, again, illustrating the "Split" market. Note, more extended Retails, Financials, Utils., Media, plus, Health/Drugs, some Brokers, Autos, and, of course, Comp./Techs, now included. Again, I am trying to put these into general "industry groups", where helpful.
Oh, and another valuable note: LEARN, that, normally, NO amount of "reported good news" (other than a bonifide takeover offer), can prevent a stock in stage 7, or stage 6, from falling/further....A recent proof of this, was, as I said, among the Oils/Services stocks, which suckered a ton more unenlightened people in, after their stage 6, S.T. bottom, only to fall anew, as I told people they would....
and/But, just Not yet, in: OCENY, JNJ, CLX (also see names of other "removed" stocks, in recent past NL's), all taken Off potential puts list, before "put".... remember, we do NOT buy puts, when/if issue is still making new highs.... yes, we will miss "some" right near their tops, but by waiting for double-tops and/or umbrella tops to form better, we will have fewer small cut losses, and we will still catch plenty of Puts over time, with less stress....again, when/if an issue breaks out immediately after I add it, I remove it, period. You must please check the recent charts of all potential Puts ideas, takes less than 10 seconds each, to make sure they have not broken out.
again, The best Puttable Industry Groups Sectors, continue to be among extended Financials, Big-name, high-PE, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Media, Consumer, Utility, Autos, Health, Airlines, Internets, most, ONLY into a rally, right ? Interesting, the groups broadened before recent declines, dig ? Again, issues are quickly removed, when/if they break above their potential rolling top formations (as above)....If one properly diversifies, and only does L.T., in-the-money puts, this is not a problem....as you can see, I do "pull" stocks off lists quickly, when they break their patterns, and you should, too.... we will catch plenty more VG puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?) Read my "essay" on "How to exploit the Downside in Puts" for deeper coverage, and info. on the Patterns, etc. (as with calls, and all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).
Besides all the lessons you hopefully have gleaned from all my past NL
commentaries above, and from my (six) "essays/booklets", the next Lessons to
learn, are to memorize the specific characteristics of each, of the at-least 7
(seven) sequential stages in my "PSYCLE sm....so, starting today, and each NL
forward for a while, I will cover each stage, one by one....this is very, very
valuable information--- here goes:
"PSYCLE sm" stage 3: the often-parabolic occasional (and, of course, terminal) rise to the top: O.K., after the normal, usual correction/pullback after the initial upside breakout from the base, the "late buyers in stage 2" get frustrated (because they were not smart enough to have BT. down in the base) and many sell--- at the bottom of the stage 2 pullback....Well, often enough, especially in bull markets, the stock then not only gives a second chance to buy, on the pb into the depr. base, again, the stock then embarks on the at-least-semi-parabolic eventual "run to the top" rise....Understand: most people never buy near lows, never buy in depr. bases, and only buy "way up", on "good news", etc., right ? Also, many people the last several years, only buy, on a "breakout" at/to new highs--- on the breakout above the stage 2 high, dig ? Of course, in recent years (and it has been a rare period historically, but I digress) "buying on new highs", way up from the depr. base, has worked somewhat at times....at least primarily for a small number of "big-name issues" only....anyway, when/if that is true, the stock eventually is surrounded by better and better "news/fundamentals, etc." And it may form the at-least-semi-parabolic price rise I mention, as/in stage 3.... often, the "breakout" itself occurs on high volume as well....
Stage 3 is SUPPOSED to be "exciting", few corporate problems on the horizon, with all systems go, fundamentally, etc. Some people use trailing stops, and many people still buy on any pullbacks, all the way up....some people even pyramid, etc., on margin....of course, the key to stage 3, is selling before the break of the steep uptrend line, yes ? All articles, opinions, etc., must necessarily see "continuation forever of the steep uptrend", but we all know that cannot happen. ....It is difficult for "the 95 %" to deviate from the masses in stage 3 (as I teach you how to do here). Eventually, most "riders-up" will NOT sell anywhere near the top, for obvious PSY-chological reasons, which will be illuminated in stages 4, 5, 6, 7 soon here....Important: while I and my "PSYCLE sm" are certainly real good, we still often "miss" a stage 3 rise, preferring to sell into the stage 2 high, as I said before, and redeploy those proceeds into another stage 1 stock, rather that "hope for a stage 3 breakout" on an already-high stock....and, also, because we NEVER "begin to buy after a stock is already way up, regardless of any real or perceived external inputs"....WE only buy LOW....I hope that is clear, and helpful. Last, sometimes, a stock forms a "halfway-flat-or-slight-pullback-for- a-while, consolidation" in stage 2, before the breakout into stage 3....often my "PSYCLE sm" will exploit the pullback with Puts, selling for profits when/if they decline to the 200 DMA, S.T., and cutting a quick small loss, when/if it breaks out to a new high, right ? So now you know about stages 1, 2, and 3, in my "PSYCLE sm", illustrated here for you....next time here, "PSYCLE sm" stage 4.
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better to buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....Similarly, it is better to TRY some "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to never do any....remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves....this is a Good thing. ...Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action, like we had recently with the Techs/Asians. The Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then (buy then ? a pun, get it ?), it is/will be too late....
One must buy into NON-sexiness, NON-positiveness, when the patterns are aok,
right ? Also, buying Puts can be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, as "insurance" or "protection, as well as for direct profit at times, yes ?
*** So, again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or
put, stocks "Now", as long as their current prices are right near those given
in Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....Section (3)....and, Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable/learnable lists, when/if those issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to your "Guide" to my NL, which will have been sent to you soon after you subscribed.... obviously, this NL is a "work in process", a true lifetime learning tool for you, and not an "overnite junk NL", and I want to do my best for you....we are just beginning, and you will be receiving a ton of useable, learnable, specific information from here, and in my "essays/booklets", and in future special reports....thanks again, and spread the word.
*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you
a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be
done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "illiquid" than
others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my
valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for
various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people
would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly,
right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more
quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE
sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are "worth acting on"
at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) if
those issues are also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)