If you are already knowledgeable about "PSYCLE sm" tenets, and/or just want the most current "actionable" stocks, go right to Section (3) First....then, to see longer lists, and potential ideas, go to sections (6) and (7)....of course, if you want to get the most, for the least, read everything....and, re-read the past NL's "commentary" items again (section (2) each time), to glean/learn more about the "feel" for probable tops and bottoms in things....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
This, my new newsletter (NL), and Educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas, for the benefit of the people who are also coming over from it's Previous incarnation, to also provide Them with a "seamless" transition, "on the fly", so to speak, but more, to show YOU, as Newer subcribers, all the Recently/ Past suggested ideas, which I shared with my L.T. followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn. Remember, all my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's....and, all my "essays".

Important: Remember, I am pretty Comprehensive, herein....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....most other NL's leave you hanging, yes ? Know, that there are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed herein: a) Stocks that can be taken advantage of, here and now, if right near given prices, b) Stocks which, if they get back to where they were when originally suggested, remain/ become tradeable again, and, c) Stocks which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and might also illustrate Industry Groups potentially shaping up, as Educational ideas....Try to "view" the past 1-year-back charts of all ideas, for best learning of patterns....all ideas are followed up till "sold" or "removed", for your benefit. Do try to find charts which also have 200 DMA 's on them.

FIRST: IMPORTANT--- until further notice, the online URL, to get all future NL's, will be, first, "the URL for my main web page", then add, each successive time, as a "suffix", a forward slash, then that date, then "letter.html" , ok ?, as in, " /81798letter.html " , " /82098letter.html ", etc., got that ? every Mon., and Thu., after 11 am, PST, (2 pm, EST), for now....they may on occasion be available as early as 10 am, pst, if I can finish them earlier....Hope this helps. Obviously, only actual subscribers will get this 'code', and, down the road, I will change this anyway, and, I am examining changing this whole format, so non-subscribers cannot figure this out, etc. Taking the time to Glean the message, is much more important then the medium, yes ?

second: Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3) each NL.

third, hope you notice, I have been putting more actual "learning items" into each NL....remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those stocks remain aok....many EVB's may form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6) below....also, note, due to recent cracks in many depresseds here, have either, cut Q, small losses in some (no harm, in a properly diversified portfolio, and , again, do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate recent past perfomance forward forever PSY-chologically/make this a bigger occurance than it is", etc.), and took some stocks off pot. long buy list, as they broke potential patterns.... no biggie, yet is does make the potential buy lists smaller and more manageable here, yes ? Gosh,. I hope you cut long losses, and bought some PUTS, recently.

fourth, Been telling you, this "Split" market, has now given us many more nice Put gains, but we are still playing close to the vest, meaning, keeping close stops, and NOT getting emotional nor excited, cutting Q, small losses, nor with big Puts winners, and am continuing to hold/raise some cash....For the umpteenth time, "the market" is neither "the indexes", nor an important "thing" to even be concerned with....Note how, recently, the daily changes in "Averages" are often meaningless --- they often tell us NOTHING about what is really going on WITHIN the markets, do they ? Only by following all the individual stocks WITHIN, visually, can one come closer to knowing what is really happenening, and what best to do, yes ?

Important: Remember, again, as I told you, early in June, that any "new highs" in the DJIA and OTC, or other "indexes", were going to be quite UN-confirmed by the internals (A/D, and H/L figures), and hence, have lead to our recent predicted drops....And, you have now seen the recent corrections, as expected, in many extended stocks, that I gave you herein, yes ? (many stopping, at least initially, around their 200 DMA's, yes ?) Of course, I am also upset with even the small cut losses I gave out, among some depresseds....BUT--- and this is crucial: please do NOT "label" any corrections as possibly a "bear" market....who cares....just try to do what the "PSYCLE sm" says, and ignore "market talk"....and Re-read my booklets, as to why all "labelling" is Harmful to your psyche, and your performance....plus, we recently hear many people who did not call the S.T. top, using the word "bear", just at the time when many EVB's form, and are Long Buys, with close stops (see Section (3) below), yes ?

I am also trying to get "group discount" on long-term, "M. C. Horsey" charts, so you can "see" the 10-20 year charts of thousands of stocks, to get proper/better Perspective of where stocks have been....will let you know....read my booklet on "Scenarios" again....

Also, please do Not let any "Q, S, cut losses" among Longs recently, prevent you from taking advantage of present/future ideas....just a couple of bigger winners (some of which I have already given here, and will continue to give over time) will more than overcome a few very small cut losses among Puts/Longs, in the meantime....the Key, is not to quit prematurely, stay with the concept, learn the basic patterns, be patient, we have just started, and DO "something", diversified, w/close stops, which best fits your various situational accounts needs....Use this initial NL period, to LEARN as much as you can about my "PSYCLE sm", also read All my essays/booklets, and view/learn their patterns. IMPORTANT: Key: remember, all suggested ideas REMAIN buys near lows, or puts near highs, (only) as long as their patterns do remain intact, even if weeks or months pass !!! But when/if their patterns crack/break, they are removed very quickly, as you know....

Remember, we do NO "market average/index predictions," ever....but, I expect you to notice, for instance, when I have added a lot more Puttables, or a lot more Longs, as a template, for gleaning the tambor of the "overall market". When some depresseds began to crack, and I have added more Puts, that should have told you what was coming, yes ? Logical, relaxed, simple....Watch those 200 Day Moving Averages (200 DMA's)....

So, "pick your potion(s)," First, from Section (3) ---then from sections (6) and (7), long and/or short side, for cash, or on margin, or only L.T., in-the- money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you have never done Puts, this has been the time to Learn how to do so, using my "booklet/ essay" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. top, which may next exist in the early Fall, after the rallies after this decline ?

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group notes: interesting, that, since/while some "high-priced, name" issues have had some S.T. tops, as I have been saying, the depressed "land-based" (pun intended) groups, like, Energy and Oil Services, Metals, both Precious and non-ferrous, and "Basic Inds.", like, Steels, Alum., Copper, Chem., Fertilizer, Farm-oriented, etc., continue to shape up as "EVB's"....again, only those which do NOT make new lows, right ? New lows, and we are OUT. Have some Patience. Please do view 1-year-past charts, of these depr. "Techs", which I specifically gave you, among others of similar ilk, herein, and see their recent "bases", to learn further from: KLIC, WDC, KLAC, SEG, LRCX, JBL, NN, BDE, at least ....the depr. Techs are definitely bouncing, as expected... also, note, I added many "depressed long buys" in general here, obviously, after such a decline as we have had....note, we just recently hear many people who did not call the S.T. top, beginning to use the word "bear"--- just at the time when many EVB's form, and may be Long Buys, with close stops (see Section (3) below), yes ? Again, "PSYCLE sm" traders do not "label"....we "do", both sides.

b) L.A. Times, 8/18: a chart of Nikkei. stock Index, from its late 1989 high of 39,000 to 14,800 low early 1992, 14,664 low early 1995, then recent 14,715 potential low Monday, continues to show a "PSYCLE sm" depressed base, yes ? All the Media/Press stories continue to be very negative for the future, yet this Index still hanging in, just as a stage 1 S.T. base should, AND as I alone have been pointing out....Also, the article specifically says (and this is great, PSYCLE -wise, yes ?): "among the factors contributing to the latest gloom and doom: soaring Japoanese bankruptcies, tumbling retail sales, Russia problems, weakness the of Yen, and a growing belief that Japan is so....paralyzed....that it cannot begin to reverse its banking crisis anytime soon-- no matter what the new prime minister says." Wow...is that a perfect late stage 7/early stage 1-type message, or what ? It also says, "analysts remain skeptical about the Nikkei's prospects"....Beautiful. So, On Wed., the Nikkei. again bounced up off the triple-bottom low....so far so good....Even after months of "terrible/worsening fundamentals" there, as I teach endlessly here, this Index still exhibits "PSYCLE sm" pattern....cool. We shall see....It may certainly be worth the shot, with a close stop, as always. I gave you, PKX, TLK, IIF, ROC, WTT, and some depr. Asian /U.S. techs, right near lows. We shall see....

c) reported on CNBC, 8/17, three times: evidently, the market value of both, MSFT ($ 250. B), and GE ($ 280. B), each, now exceeds the total market value of ALL the stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange....wow....more grist for the mill, after these next rally attempts in the extended blue chips. Also, note, how, many extended "name" stocks, while rallying S.T. only, so far, are still not making new highs, and remain potential double-tops....This, is another reason why I view 2,500 individual charts every weekend....I would strongly suggest, again, that you learn how to do PUTS, from here....and spread the "PSYCLE sm" story.

d) A major brokerage firm said, Tommy H. (TOM) (a stock I specfically gave you herein right near its high, as another successful "PSYCLE sm" put, falling to its 200 DMA, then out) even @ 56+, is a "real cheapie, undervalued, and a real good buy"....hmmmm....if TOM at 56+ is a "cheapie", still not too far from its all-time high, up from 33. earlier 1998, and 14. two years ago, and 8. just before then, I wonder what he would call any Depressed stock....TOM is not a cheapie, here, in any way shape or form. Please realize, as with MSFT, DELL, CSCO, Internets, high-PE, and the like, any "new highs" (when and if) here, on any similarly positioned stocks technically, are, 1) not worth it, vs. the much higher reward-to -risk ratios existing on vastly more Depressed issues BT. near recent lows, with close tops, right ?, and, 2) likely to be their "swan song", so anyone buying "those kinds of super-high stocks" here and now, must be very careful, and not too logical....but, as you know, as I teach, people who buy those kinds of stocks, rarely sell them in stage 4....almost never buy Puts near highs....and never buy anything in stage 1.

e) the Financial Media keeps trying to "link" "the dollar" with "the T-bond/interest rates", as if there is some sort of supposed, automatic, magic, guaranteed connection between them....but, as I have proven for years now, there is NO such easily direct "linkage" there (re-read my booklet on "scenarios/ linkages"). Tuesday 18th, KWHY -tv, 9:20 am, pst: reporter, again, asked, "but, wouldn't the stronger dollar help bond prices ?" Well, again, if he, and all people, would just take two minutes, to actually view the historical charts, of the U.S. Dollar contract, and interest rates (both L.T. and S.T.), one would easily see little or no consistently direct, correlation....in another, of many such examples in historical reality: just recently, interest rates have fallen, yet the U.S. dollar has risen, yes ? But The Media keeps intimating they should move opposite each other, yes ? So much of "supposed linkages" depend on one's perspective, it just doesn't work. God forbid reporters step back, view actual charts, remove THEIR emotional bent, and actually study historical items, charts, etc. Imagine how different their reports would be.

f) I.B.D., 8/17, the respected Wm. O'Darvas's "series" on his "stock" method, covered Relative Strength, from his p.o.v.: Aside from his evidently fixed 8 % downside stop on all long positions (?), he says, after buying "his way" near highs, when/with the RS is above 80-100, "the first time a stocks' RS falls below 70, as a good time to reevaluate your position and consider selling." While that may be fine, for some, I say, 1) why is it I have never seen a way to buy Puts near highs via his method, and, 2) by the time a stocks' RS falls from, say, 95 to 68, that stock may have already fallen down more than a little bit, yes ? So, I'd be interested in the L.T. track record of that approach....but more, I also wonder which is more important: the 8 % price drop, or the RS drop, if/when only one of them happens ? I will get back to you on this if I can....

g) also I.B.D., 8/17: an article entitled, "Should Feds Invest In Stocks ?", obviously examines the Social Security alternatives/questions, you have heard/read about, etc. Nothing new, but, I should remind you of my "PSYCLE sm" opinion, which, from the moment I first heard of this, I said, that, the day "the Govt." starts investing in the stock market, might just herald worse times, and/or the end of the game, from a sentiment p.o.v. Well, we seem to be getting closer to this possibility, just as many big-name stocks may be forming L.T. tops ? Thank goodness, Greenspan is against this politicians idea, so far.... My "PSYCLE sm" point, is that such an event might be used as another helpful timing signal, if this makes sense to you, assuming the Govt. rarely does anything massively helpful, financially-growth-wise, for hard-working people....again, I am not politicizing, just stating a likely timing aid, when-and-if....

h) also please don't kill me, but I gotta mention this: on 3 financial media TV show interviews very recently, Arch Crawford, the most exposed NL writer of "astrological bent", with the best PR people, and rep, is real, real bearish, after this rally, again....gosh, I wish I knew all his exact predictions and full track record, the last several years, so I could judge him, so I will not do so here....and he is saying, that, the planetary/zodiacal situation up ahead, mirrors that of before the 1987 crash....his top dates are 9/4 and 9/6, just after Labor Day....we shall see....if anyone can tell me his actual L.T. track record in recent past years, please let me know....And, Steve Todd, a long-time compatriot, with a pretty decent NL track record, also just went Bearish, for the first time in years....

Also, of interest, some "incorrectly-pretty-much-continually-bearish-for- years-with-only-occasional-ambiguous-semi-bullishness-at-the-most" newsletter prognosticators, like, Jerry Favors, Peter Eliades, Jim Grant, Bob Prechter, Michael Metz, just to name 5, among many others of similar ilk, are nevertheless over-interviewed, given undeserved exposure, and even lionized, as in Barron's recently, when we do get occasional market drops like we just had--- yet the Media never mentions their not-so-good actual records, going back, do they ? Hey, even a broken (bearish) clock is right twice a day, yes ? Of course, when and if this becomes a true "bear market", those kinds of guys will get undeserved credit-- pointing further to the problems with the Financial Media, but I digress....Gee, if they had just interviewed my "PSYCLE sm" in June/July, they would have helped a ton of people all along....as you know, this is one of my pet peeves, that YOU should be concerned with: that many "just happen to be famous" interviewed prognosticators and analysts are over-exposed as being supposedly worth listening to/followed, when, in historical fact, the direct value of their output may not be worthy of such treatment....of course, this is also true in every other area of human endeavor, but, given recent market behavior, it shows the value of "PSYCLE sm" specificity....If we only had the exposure we deserve. Just telling it like it is.

i) a CNBC reporter, Sharon E., 8/19, noon: actually asked a M. Fund Mgr.: "where are the cheap stocks ? ARE there any cheap stocks out there ?" amazing, huh....this, again, shows the massively ignorant mindset of many Media people.... thank goodness this Fund Mgr. mentioned an Oil Service stock, which the reporter pooh-poohed, of course....and, in a related CNBC report, on "what Insiders have been buying", BHI., OIL, and GLM, depr. "PSYCLE sm" EVB"s I gave you, were mentioned....good. But you should know, they specifically mentioned, that the Insiders in the Oil Service companies, were Also, buying, ALL THE WAY DOWN, with many of their purchases occuring at much higher prices--- no timing, dig ? versus, my "PSYCLE sm", which, only very recently saw their EVB's, for your potential benefit, yes ? Ah, the benefits of technical chart patterns....

remember, when the DJIA was 1,000, there were stage 4 stocks ---- and, with the DJIA at 9,000 there will be stage 1 stocks....that's one key to our success ---that, instead of just blindly looking at, and accepting at face value, just a misleading, incomplete index, we find specific tops and bottoms, EVERY period.

j) CNBC, 8/19, 11:45 am, pst: Alan Chernoff "created" a report, recommending "housing stocks" here (when other Ind. groups are much more worthy of such treatment, but they will never cover them, right ?), but the reporter actually said, " KBH has really been slumping lately...." Then, as I teach to look for in my booklets on "How (NOT) to Use media output", and "Scenarios/Linkages/Words", they showed a recent price chart, which ONLY showed KBH falling, from 34, to 26., up from 12...hardly warranting his "slumping" word....I see NO "housing stocks" as cheqp buys here....the ONLY time to have bought most such issues, was, perhaps, as you know, 1 1/2 years ago, when in my NL's, my "PSYCLE sm" actually did give out KBH, and others in the group, when I called a trading bottom in So. Calif. residential R.E. Please view the long-term, several-years=past chart, of KBH, to see its L.T. "PSYCLE sm" base, just over $ 10., then....learn the pattern.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
(always remember to view 1-year-at-least past charts of everything you can view) (Q = quick; i.e, less than 2 months holding period....VQ = very quick; i.e., less than 3 weeks holding period....re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades, (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where avaliable/ suitable, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" rules), and also try to view their 1-year-past price charts, to see the patterns, and where/when they were Hypothetically, originally "bought", longs near lows, puts near highs)