1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent
Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and still
long, unless otherwise noted):
6) other, still-Depressed, Long Buys,
near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always
Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent highs Only, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts
Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential
drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down
appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?):
8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
If you are already knowledgeable about "PSYCLE sm" tenets, and/or just want
the most current "actionable" stocks, go right to Section (3) FIRST....then, to
see longer lists, and potential ideas, go to sections (6) and (7)....of course,
if you want to get the most, for the least, read everything....and, re-read the
past NL's "commentary" items again (section (2) each time), to glean/learn more
about the "feel" we get, near probable tops and bottoms in things....
This, my new newsletter
(NL), and Educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended
stocks/ideas, to show YOU, as Newer subcribers, all the Recently/Past suggested ideas, which I shared with my L.T. followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn. Remember, all my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's....and, all my "booklets/essays".
** 8/26, Wed., a follower recently asked me "how come I have such close stops", to which, I replied, "how come so few people ever buy Puts"....'nuff said....All day Thu. 27th, I still have yet to hear ONE single reporter, or interviewed analyst-person, suggest, PUTS, in any way, shape, or form....amazingly ignorant, thoughtless, and hurtful to investors, yes ? of course, "now", some people are "just discovering reasons" why what has already happened, should have happened. Now you know another reason why I get so passionate about helping others....and upset with most other newsletters, analysts, and media people.... our Psycle "patterns" are so much more helpful/powerful, than any "fundamental" or "news" items. Like, the "after the first hour or two of trading on Mon. or Tues., as likely V.S.T. bottom
Important: Remember, I am pretty Comprehensive, herein....I follow-up every
idea mentioned, for your benefit....most other NL's leave you hanging....Know, that there are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed herein: a) Stocks that can be taken advantage of, here and now, if right near given prices, b) Stocks which, if they get back to where they were when originally suggested, remain/become tradeable again, and, c) Stocks which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and might also illustrate Industry Groups potentially shaping up, and/or as Educational ideas....Try to "view" the past 1-year-back charts of all ideas, for best learning of patterns....all ideas are followed up till "sold" or "removed", for your benefit. Do try to find charts which also have 200 DMA 's on them, physically, or through your computer, or on the web. Plenty of free places on the web to do so. Learn the chart patterns, then add the "sentiment" patterns, and voila....Puts in march/April, Puts in July/August, and Q, large % Gains in depresseds in between, with some small losses in long-siders, of lesser consequence....
FIRST ---IMPORTANT--- until further
notice, the online URL, to get all future NL's, will be, first, "the URL for my
main web page", then add, each successive time, as a "suffix", a forward slash,
then that date, then "letter.html" , ok ?, as in, " /82498letter.html " ,
" /82798letter.html ", etc., got that ? all small case letters, no spaces.... Every Mon., and Thu., after 11 am, PST, (2 pm, EST), for now....they may on occasion be available as early as 10 am, pst, if I can finish them earlier....Hope this helps. Obviously, only actual subscribers will get this 'code', and, down the road, I will change this anyway, and, I am examining changing this whole format, so non-subscribers cannot figure this out, etc. Taking the time to Glean the message, is much more important then the medium, yes ? In any case, look for me to change the "code" early September, to protect you....
second: Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL
applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and
actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will
be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm"
stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational
benefit....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3) each NL.
third, hope you notice, I have been putting more actual "learning/feeling items" into each NL....remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those stocks remain aok....many EVB's may form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6)
below....also, note, due to recent cracks in many depresseds here, have either,
cut Q, small losses in some (no harm, in a properly diversified portfolio, and ,
again, do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate recent past perfomance forward
forever PSY-chologically, nor make this a bigger occurance than it is", etc.). no biggie....I hope you cut Long-side losses, and Bought some PUTS, recently !!!
fourth, Been telling you, this "Split" market, has now given us many more
nice Put gains, but we are also still playing close to the vest, meaning, keeping
close stops, and NOT getting emotional nor excited, when cutting Q, small losses, nor with big Puts winners, and am continuing to hold/raise some cash....For the
umpteenth time, "the market" is neither "the indexes", nor an important "thing"
to even be concerned with....Note how, recently, the daily changes in "Averages"
are often meaningless --- they often tell us NOTHING about what is really going
on WITHIN the markets, do they ? Only by following all the individual stocks
WITHIN, visually, can one come closer to knowing what is really happenening, and
what best to do, yes ?
Important: Wed. 8/26, seeing how the "indexes/averages" continue to mask significant internal Weakness and yucky-looking chart patterns abound....Please ask the people around you if they have ever bought Puts properly before ....if not, get them to me, and I will help them also, with Puts....Remember, as I told you, early in June, any "new highs" in the DJIA and OTC, or other "indexes", were going to be UN-confirmed by the internals (A/D, and H/L figures), and hence, have lead to our recent predicted drops....And, you have now seen the recent decent corrections, as expected, in many previously extended stocks, that I gave you herein, yes ? (with many stopping, at least initially, around their 200 DMA's, yes ?) Of course, I am also upset with even the small cut losses I gave out, among some depressed longs.... BUT--- and this is crucial: please do NOT "label" any corrections as possibly a "bear" market....who cares....just try to do what is "right", what the "PSYCLE sm" says, and ignore all "market talk"....and Re-read my booklets, as to why all "labelling" is harmful to your psyche, and performance....
also, note, how the "psychological" nuance of the recent declines, smacks of stage 5 for most previously-strong blue chips, and stage 7, for many depressed Techs....
** on CNBC, just before the close, Fri. 28th: Bob Pisani, said, (quote) "virtually nobody I have spoken with thinks we are anywhere near even a S.T. bottom"....famous last words soon ? we shall see....as you know, "PSYCLE sm" sentiment-wise, those kinds of comments, often presage V.S.T. bottoms, dig ? As I teach, "after the first hour or two of trading" Mon. or Tue., should be such a V.S.T. bottom, right ? I am seeing that, "baby bathwater" kind of drops Monday, as of 9:00 am, pst....
Also, please do Not let any "Q, S, cut losses" among Longs recently, prevent
you from taking advantage of present/future ideas....just a couple of bigger
winners (some of which I have already given here, and will continue to give over
time) will more than overcome a few very small cut losses among Puts/Longs, in
the meantime....the Key, is not to quit prematurely, stay with the concept, learn
the basic patterns, be patient, we have just started, and try to DO "something",
diversified, w/close stops, which best fits your various situational accounts and
needs, especially Puts in the recent past....Use this initial NL period, to LEARN as much as you can about my "PSYCLE sm", also read All my essays/booklets, and view/learn their patterns. IMPORTANT: Key: remember, all suggested ideas REMAIN buys near lows, or puts near highs, (only) as long as their patterns do remain intact, even if weeks or months pass !!! But when/if their patterns crack/break, they are removed very quickly, as you know....
Remember, we do NO "market average/index predictions," ever....but, I expect
you to notice, for instance, when I have added a lot more Puttables, or a lot
more Longs, as a template, for gleaning the tambor of the "overall market", at those times....for instance, when some depresseds began to crack, and I have added many more Puts, that should have told you what was coming, back in June, yes ? Logical, relaxed, simple....always watch those 200 Day Moving Averages (200 DMA's)
So, "pick your potion(s)," FIRST, from Section (3) ---then from sections (6)
and (7), long and/or short side, for cash, or on margin, or only L.T., in-the-
money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you have
never done Puts, this has been the time to Learn how to do so, using my "booklet/ essay" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. top, which may
next exist in the early Fall, after the rallies after this decline ?
** INITIAL NOTE: obviously, with the cash you have made/raised, from either, having held above- average cash balances anyway, and/or having made money in Puts, and/or having properly cut losses from some longs, 1) as happened in May/June, it is now a bit late, to "begin" to buy Puts across-the-board.....the time for that was a few weeks ago....but some do remain puttable, after bounces towards highs/ resistance....2) we want to look to buy, long, with close stops, depr. stocks which have NOT made new lows recently, dig ? Obviously, many are going to be EVB's, up ahead, right ?
a) Important Industry Group notes: Note, as I said, last time here, Crude
and Heating Oil futures themselves look S.T. bottomy....Thu. 27th, CNBC reported that the "(tele)communications stocks had had biggest drops", and, as you know,
I was the first/only to give them as Puts to you, herein....as with the Internets, which I did give perfectly herein, but missed as puts....and, you know how I hate "fundamentals", but, a bunch of EVB companies/stocks, below (section (6)), would "seem" to be getting ridiculously cheap, value-wise....that means, either, many EVB's will bottom, just as "the 95 %" get most negative....or, the EPS estimates by the "so-called experts" for the future, will be vastly lowered, over time, and these stock will base, longer....will keep you posted. Either way, as of "after the first hour of trading" Mon. or Tue., the majority of the S.T. decline should be over, at least....also, note all the money, so far, lost by too-early Oil Service stocks Insider Buyers the last 2-3- months, as those stocks continued to Not make "EVB" lows....
b) also, obviously, the Nikkei. Index broke, shortly after I wrote Thu. NL.... but, in a way, it still shows potential triple-bottom characteristics, from 12/97, and 6/97....but it broke below 14,700, so NO buy....And the Hqng Seng Index is still barely "hanging in" (pun intended)....it, and "ROC, and KF", have still not broken their double-bottoms, and may be L.T. buys there, but they all remain real close to breaking, and have no sexinesss/volatility, so NOT in them yet....also, just FYI, for reference, the "Russia stock market Index", had gone, roughly, from 75. in jan. 1996, up huge to 525. in aug. 1997, then, as you know, down huge, to very recently, around 60. again ? ...CNBC showed a chart...
c) I was thinking, today, are there any more "second and third level" countries left to "hit" ? I mean, as usual, the Media has been scaring the heck out of the 95 % for months now, reaching a peak in fear this past weekend, right here, and probably, much of the damage has been already done, at least S.T., by today, after the first hour or two, in most foreign country stocks, yes ? Of course, they will continue to "foce negativeness/fear" even when/if things improve overseas, won't they....From here, Monday, 9:00 am, pst, one must watch the STOCKS, and not the reported news, right ? In any case their stocks should bottom, before their fundamentals are reported as improving, right ? But we will be buying the best-looking patterns, regardless of where they are from, right ?
NO "scenarios"....NO emotion....
d) note, DELL, MSFT, CSCO, are down for the first time in a while, as I hinted would occur herein recently, that they would be "hook/trap highs"....and, for the first time I can recall, I.B.D. 8/31, showed a bunch of stocks in their "hi-lighted NASDAQ % volume" section, which were actually down/already....and not "still way up near their highs"...I'd be interested to know how their hi-lighted stocks looked in 1987. Anyway, these drops in the previously-strongest stocks signals a later stage of this S.T. decline, as I taught you to watch for....
e) RE: foreign "Closed-End Mutual Funds": even as of Thu. 27th, very Few CEMF's, even the Asians/Golds, show wide discounts to their N.A. Values....
this reiterates 3 "PSYCLE sm" beliefs: 1) that, contrary to Wall St.'s historical "assumption", discounts to NAV, do NOT automatically "link" to higher stock prices, S.T. or L.T., and, 2) note how most of the Foreign-country CEMF's have still fallen, and NAV discounts have not protected investors, and, 3) therefore, as with extended stocks of companies supposedly "growing so fast", not much can prevent a "stage 5 or 6" stock/industry group from falling, anyway.
oh, and, notice, from my recent "sell short the U.S. Dollar" signal, last NL here, that futures contract has already fallen, from 102 1/2 to 99 7/8, already ....we shall see....and the Yen, Franc, Mark, Pound, all up Thu./Fri. (I did not predict those specifically).
f) quick "Beanie Baby top", follow-up: a local children's store, is now offering a "free B. B." with any purchase over $ 25. Get it ? And, in the L.A./O.C. classifieds, seeing still fewer B.B. ads, and a few now read "sale", where none did, near the top, dig ? The sequential "PSYCLE sm" pattern hardly ever varies.
g) add this to the "obvious/duh" file: an article, Fri. L.A. Times, titled, "Sagging stocks give Roth IRA's a leg up": reported, obviously, that, when/if a suitable person chose to shift money from a regular IRA, into a Roth, given some recent big declines in stock values, he would likely owe less in taxes on the shift, because the money shifted would be worth less now, than in the recent past....amazing....Gee, so, let me get this straight: if one loses money, before transferring, one would owe less taxes, after the shift....brilliant....and they waste a long article, for this....
h) what do you think of this item: L.A. Times, from the A.P., Friday 28th: "Hong Kong's fight with speculators intensifies": in a highly unusual action, the H.K. Govt. has been aggressively buying stocks, trying to prop up the Heng Seng Index (quote) "to a level at which speculators, who had recently bet on declines, would not profit, or would even lose money". Boy, I have never understood that skewed logic....Their Govt. also (quote) "blamed speculators for driving up interest rates and sending stock prices down." Gee, I guess economics and govt. and coprorate financials and policies had nothing to to do with their stock and interest rate moves....yeah, right....Then, they said (quote) "the govt. will have a hard time unloading the massive amount of shares it holds without triggering a market collapse." Huh ? Didn't they just blame it on "speculators" ? Meanwhile, as I suggested herein, the Heng Seng Index itself, is still, not breaking support, yet....As I teach, the vast majority of price moves have little or nothing to do with the "external/financial reasons" which "the 95 %" insist on expounding. As if there were a handful of traders who "caused" everything bad....not. Most Foreign Govts. are not VG at timing bottoms/tops in their markets....
i) in their infinite lateness, CNBC, today, 9:30 am, pst, finally decided to interveiw a supposed "expert on Russian stocks", now, only after horrendous declines therein ....asking, what does someone who still owns Russian stocks, do now....gee, perhaps they could have interviewed this person, like, a couple of hundred percent higher, when they could have helped their viewerrs, but I digress ....Of course, again, this type of interview normally occurs in late stage 6 or 7 in the "PSYCLE sm", yes ?
IMPORTANT note: obviously, with recent action today, I have to reasess some "potential" longs, in Section (6) below, so, be sure to view their charts, before thinking of buying those, to make sure they are not breaking to new lows....as I have taught you here countless times, we NEVER buy "new lows" long !!! relax, wait for the EVB, or base to form a bit, dig ? Personally, I prefer sometimes to wait, until I see new chartbooks, Saturday, for buying, but, do/did cut losses in recent past weeks, as some issues broke, quickly and somewhat painlessly. And, of course, do not get "turned off" to the market....that would be weak, psychological overreactive, non-PSYCLE behavior, right ?
Note: as I say above, had to cut some more quick, Small losses, in some more
depr."Techs/Asians/Energies", as some of their patterns seemed to have broken.... in a properly diversified portfolio, with Puts, these should not have been of any consequence, in L.T. performance....and/but those have beem MORE balanced by recent large % Gains, in some similar issues, and, of course, I also gave you a ton of Large Puts % Gains, assuming you have properly diversified....When Longs break/broke below recent lows, as I teach in my booklets, we are OUT, the vast majority of the time....I just do NOT want any "bigger losses", right ? One can always get back in later....It is better to preserve capital, and one's PSY-chological health....as I say herein, some of these might still have the "rally back up to where they broke down from", and/or form lower bases, and/or double-bottom "W" formations ahead, which, when/if they occur, I will let you know, as usual....but, breakdowns below support, are not argued with.
Remember, you can always also go back and view the 1-year-past charts, of the many previously "Hypothetically completed" successful PUTS trades from previous NL's, to "see/learn" more, and this also illustrates why one must Diversify, buying at least a Few suggested ideas, and at least "some" Puts, at all times, right ? we are in this for the long haul....my approach keeps you in the game, for when those big gainers occur for us...."just get close(r)", as I teach.
New Longs: (note, more/new names here):
SPCT @ 13+, CCH @ 3/16, DNB @ 24, TOX @ 5/16, AG @ 9 1/8, NGX @ 9/16....note, the majority of long buys here are still cheapies...."buy low", right ? and, a much smaller list lately, yes ? LEARN THIS: when I had been seeing fewer "quality" higher-priced stocks as deporessed buy patterns, that should have told you something about "the market", back in June, and again very recently, yes ?
also Note, some of these are some are New....and most are "repeats"....also, note, the "long-side" lists have gotten more UN-clear all-of-a-sudden....a real mish-mosh....remember, one does not "have" to trade all the time....and/but,
*** Important: took, GALTF, KMET, PHYC, ORCL, BRTL, SDTI., SII., UDS, SSC, CSE, BMC, IDX, APF, WDC, BEV, IRF, GFI., ONC --- Off pot. Long buys list, before might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows....also remember the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of desire/account/objective", including real cheapies, and $ 5-10. stocks, and over $ 20. stocks, and "big names" blue chips-- for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification ---all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL. Please re-read "the Guide" (green colored) to my NL, anytime.
Important: unless issues are listed specifically above, here in Section (3)
in a NL, they may NOT be buys right here....remember, a valuable part of the
"process", is that we have "actionable right near here now" stocks (Section (3)),
and also, "watching for hopefully becoming ready to buy near lows in their
depressed patterns soon" stocks (section (6))....Section (3) is for Now, Section
(6) and (7) is for soon/later and learning....be sure to read the "BDG/EVB essay"
and the "Downside" booklet (and all 6 booklets) offered....very inexpensive, yet
extremely valuable for learning timing/patterns....I try to make this easy for
you. But, always start, with Section (3), here, first.
New Puts: JCOR @ 61-, WMT @ 69, SVM @ 22+, SDG @ 89+, SEPR @ 60-, PRGN @ 35, USTR @ 69+, CTL @ 49, COX @ 50-, AVY @ 59+, BLS @ 68, ATI. @ 63-, CTX @ 43-, (also re-view recent past lists, in this section)
as with the Long side, some are new Puttables, some are repeats....obviously, given recent declines, its a bit "late" to "begin buying most puts blindly here" ....and/but, took, none, off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested stock will break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed double-bottom/ EVB/base pattern....
I am assuming, if you actually have Viewed it's recent chart/ action, BEFORE you consider buying any/those issues as Longs or Puts, you will see/know this, and therefore NOT buy that company's stock....this takes just 10 seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort patterns....just trying to help you further here....
....and/but, we just Missed, WCOM, MCIC, AIM, NXLK, COF, BBY, LXR, TWX, TJX, RMBS, SEIC, UNPH, CBTSY, AMZN, DRTE, others, as Puts near recent highs, and, CAG, as Longs near recent "EVB" lows, and, among stocks recently given you herein (also view charts of last list given here)....
Important: while I have given you a ton of successful Puts, note how many more big-name, higher-priced stocks have formed double-tops-with-lower-second-tops, not even giving us the chance to get into their puts....as I have been saying here, this was/is NOT a good sign for "the market", dig ? I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" and LEARN the patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing all the charts of the puts/longs here which we just "missed", also tells us, whether the market is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? So this also helps us know the nature of the market at any given time.... that's why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for the future.
As I said, it may still continue semi-rough for a while yet, in some
long-side issues....Again, while the Media "worries" about "earnings" impacts of
various crises, the STOCKS of the companies involved will likely Bottom, and
rise, even as "lower financials" are announced, into fear, once they bottom,
right ? And, as we have already seen, twice, since March, stocks of "growing
fast" companies, will still FALL, at times, when they form "PSYCLE sm" tops, even
as higher "eps" are announced....So, we'll also be watching for this ahead.... and, a few, small, cut losses will not hurt us much, regardless. And, by buying "some "PSYCLE sm" long-side stocks" down here, we should make some money regardless, soon, again, yes ?
and/but, then (almost everything), DNB 25 1/2 up 1 1/2, RYC 31 up 1 1/2, ALSC, CUBE, PKX, DEN, ACE, RLM, NN, others, pb (pulling back).... again, please
do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed stocks", even in qualified plans/ pensions accounts, with stops, diversified....and again, you must buy at least FEW, always diversifying, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" That is Impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just
1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 or 10, long-siders, and 5 or 10 put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of instant/S.T. gratification.
note: ("sos") means "Sell
On Strength" (on a bounce up towards where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)
and/or are sales on strength
("sos"):
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):
I have given you plenty of Puts winners, so far, lately, yes ? remember, stocks often fall in 2 or 3 stages, even S.T., towards their 200 DMA....that's another reason why we ONLY buy L.T., in-the-money options, diversified, where suitable....some people say it has been quite Valuable, that my "PSYCLE sm" found many winning puts at all, in this supposed "bull" market (which, as I said, may have ended in March/April ?), which I do appreciate....hey, most other NL's and analysts and people never ever buy Puts at all !!! Yet too many people continue to listen to, and/or buy their output, when they could have ours.
Important: with the recent drops, all These stocks, which I specifically gave you as Puts, near their highs, not too long ago, herein, Fell still more, from where I recommended Puts on them (note, this list has been getting longer, dig ?): add, COLTY, OCENY, CBSH, INCY, BHC, NTRS, GNCI., CHRZ, PHHM, PSQL, SBGI., SKYT, SOTR, JAII., CBUK, CMGI., TWMC, LHSPF, GDYS, SPLN, SLVN, SNPS, XYLN, VSIO, SLOT, BWC, UTX, BKB, BBY, TCF, DSL, UVN, CNG, GDW, CCE, CNI., FHS, NIN, KNT, JCI., ICN, ASO, LU, GWW, IAD, ICN, DG, C., to, EAII., FINL, UNH, LHSG, NWAC, SOTR, RCOT, RWAY, FILE, REP, AFCI., AZA, GWW, AWA, SGE, BLDPF, SPLN, ALK, SNPS, BBBY, BOOL, SPOT, CNET, RXSD, COFI., GNCI., SZA, WCII., ICIX, PFT, UHS, KMT, SDW, DEX, CCE, PFE, WLP, CMT, AJG, BCE, CMA, TMC, RNB, NFB, MTX, THI., IHS, ITW, PRI., HB, HH, GM, LEA, all fell even further, some spectacularly, from where I specifically gave them all to my subscribers, in previous NL's, near their highs ....in just 2- 3 months, they were all real big Puts Gains (some as the "second shoe, stage 6 drops", as I teach, in my booklet "How to Properly exploit Drops, in Puts")....and, even NSPR, MGL, UIS, SPF, TEF, AFC, DSL, SKO, TBR, ESI., ICI., which I gave you here, fell, finally.... please View some of their Charts to "see" all their previously-formed top patterns if you wish....if you do not view previously successful patterns/charts, how are you going to learn how to do this for the future ? View, and Learn, the patterns ! I share these facts with you, for your benefit, for the next "many general tops" time we have, yes ?
add, Ford, MEDI., NOBE, SEEK, XCIT, VMSI., to, LHSPF, GDYS, SCMM, LHSG, EAII., as stocks that fell/have fallen, right towards their 200 DMA's, as I teach in my "Downside/Puts" booklet....as intial downside targets, yes ? view them and hopefully learn the pattern.
Remember, as I have been saying in previous NL's, (quote) ""as in March/
April, when we see more/better tops, WE will likely do much better than others,
in Puts, at those times. We will will also have the money, and the emotional
strength, to do so. Also, keep in the back of your mind, the continuing negative
divergences between "the indexes" and "the 2,000 stocks within the markets",
which, to me, begins to smack of a bigger top ahead (bigger drops than we have
seen in recent years), maybe not as bad in degree as 1987, but at least similar
in timing (and scope) ?"" Well, so far, right on, overall....With the first
predicted drops from March, and now, the second set of predicted drops from July, and, likely, a third drop in the Fall coming....BUT--- we will NOT get "locked in" to any "scenario" before the actual patterns unfold....we remain flexible....we will be there when the time comes, and there will be plenty of opportunities to Put more issues then....
(Important Note: ("sow")
means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support"....("S") means sell the
long Puts right near here)
* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must
weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): RHI. +4, -3 (S), FORR +4, -3 1/2 (S), CMCSK -1 1/2, PAYX -2, BLS....of course, if you did not buy any Puts in these, in this section, near their recent highs, when I gave them out, you can choose not to view these/ their charts, unless you want to see/learn their patterns, to make money on Drops the rest of your life....note, some bounces occuring, as/when stocks approach their 200 DMA's
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....and, some of the issues
listed herein, are from previously suggested newsletters, as I said....but you
can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/aborted "PSYCLE sm"
patterns, to hopefully Learn from.
note how much smaller the Long-side lists have become:
"industry groups": no great bases here, just some EVB's (but, again, Not if any of these make new lows here):
Semis/Comp./Techs ( NN)
Prec. Metals (CCH, AZC, NGX)
"Basic Inds." (PKX, AG)
Energy/Services (BDI.)
Health (TOX)
....while bottoms in the Farm-and-Land-related, Natural Resources, and Basic,
ind. groups, would be a potentially important occurance, economically, given internal market history....but, as I have been intimating, it is still just Not
a VG long-side list....
And, as I have been saying from early June here, while some depresseds Are likely to set up again, mostly being EVB's, w/close stops as usual, diversified, etc., do NOT expect as large rises this time, as when I gave them out in the late '97/early '98 period (nor, from late '95 to early '96, when I also was first/only to do so near their lows then), because they do NOT have bases here, just some with good EVB's, as with the others....and, accepting some Q, small losses so far in them, am I, again, the first/only to "see" budding EVB's in some depr. "Basic Industries", "Farm/Fert.", and, some "Foreign CEMF's" up ahead ?
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they
might have been Hypothetically "bt.": GALTF, KMET, PHYC, ORCL, BRTL, SDTI., SII., CSE, APF, UDS, SSC, IDX, WDC, BEV, IRF, GFI., BMC, ONC --- were taken Off.... These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....as I have been saying, continuing to be a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or have more Puts....but we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first....and, obviously, we have properly taken a bunch OFF potential buy lists, yes ?
and also Watching --- add, SYBS, CAU, PFG, DAY, VAR, PH, BBA, IGL, IBP, NVX, MMG, EGGS, BNYN, DANKY, PHV, VTR, PLP, RWT, KF, LB, DI., to, GALTF, RLM, AZC, IDTI., ATC, STN, OXHP, HA, CCH, ITN, HUM, CDI., as "EVB's", but most Not just yet, as they need more work, technically....and/but, not when/if they make new lows....as I said above, some of these may/will, instead, form EVB "W" "double- bottom" patterns... also, though certainly early, some "previously- loved-at-their-tops" Golf stocks are also getting cheap, technically....also, obviously, given recent drops, the "potential EVB list" is bound to grow, somewhat, yes ? again, this would be a good thing, not a bad thing....
As I have always said/taught: LEARN, that, as I have proven countless times over the years, normally, NO amount of "reported good or fundamental news" (other than a bonifide takeover offer), can prevent a stock in S.T. stage 4, 5,, or 6, from falling/further....recent proof of this, lies in the declines, not only in Energies late 1997, but in Financials, Retails, and now, many others, which have fallen/are falling, in recent weeks/months --- into higher earnings, dig ?
and/But, just Not yet, in: "already down" stocks previously given here (also see names of other "removed" stocks, in recent past NL's), taken Off potential puts list, before "put"....remember, we do NOT buy puts, when/if issue is still making new highs....yes, we will miss "some" right near their tops, but by waiting for double-tops and/or umbrella tops to form better, we will have fewer small cut losses, and we will still catch plenty of Puts over time, with less stress.... again, when/if an issue breaks out immediately after I add it, I remove it, period. You must please check the recent charts of All potential Puts ideas, which takes less than 10 seconds each, to make sure they have not broken out, before you get in.
again, The best Puttable Industry Groups Sectors, continue to be among
extended Financials, Big-name, high-PE, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications,
Media, Consumer, Utility, Cable, Health, Bells....but most all, Only into a rally, near their highs, right ? Interesting, that the groups list broadened before recent declines, dig ? Again, issues are quickly removed, when/if they break above their potential rolling top formations (as above)....If one properly diversifies, and only does L.T., in-the-money puts, this is not a problem....as you can see, I do "pull" stocks off lists quickly, when they break their patterns, and you should, too....we will catch plenty more Puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?) Read my "essay" on "How to exploit the Downside in Puts" for deeper coverage, and valuable info. on the Patterns, etc. (as with calls, and all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).
Besides all the lessons you hopefully have gleaned, from all my past NL
commentaries above, and from my (six) "essays/booklets", the next Lessons to
learn, besides memorizing the specific characteristics of each, of the at-least
7 (seven) sequential stages in my "PSYCLE sm....starting 8 NL's ago, and each
NL forward for a while, I covered each sequential "PSYCLE sm" stage, one by one.
...this was very, valuable information--- So, hopefully, now you know about all about stages 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, in my "PSYCLE sm", illustrated here for you....hope they have helped....so, today's brief Lesson, is:
As taught thoroughly in the "Downside/Puts" booklet, we really want to ONLY by our Puts, where suitable, right near their highs, in stage 4 or 5, and NOT after they have already fallen towards their 200 DMA's....do not "chase down"....this should be obvious, even when/if issues have the "second shoe" drop, as illustrated in section (5) above....if one buys only L.T., in-the-money Puts, diversified, one "could" stay in, for the pot. second shoe drop, that might happen, but WE prefer, often to "take the quickest, easiest drop" to the 200 DMA, and not stick around thereafter.....plus, now that too many stocks are already down a decent amount, and the "bad news" is out, etc., why not play it cool here, S.T. Relax, learn the patterns for next time, watch the potential long-side EVB's, and master any PSY-chological illogical fears you might have about "puts", and/or about EVB's with stops, and watch for the next set of exploitable ideas....remember, we do NOT "try to use indexes to predict general support levels, then force stock trades". WE view 2,500 specific stocks patterns, then just "do" what those patterns tell us....and, again, there is no shame in "taking a little break", you know....we are sitting on a nice pile of cash here, and have NOT lost money recently....
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, similarly, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to never do any....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.
remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves.... this is a Good thing....Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action, like we had earlier in 1998, and, again, in August, with the Techs/Asians. The Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then (buy then ? a pun, get it ?), it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, have proven that yet again.
*** So, again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or
put, stocks "Now", as long as their current prices are right near those given in
Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....Section (3)....and,
Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable/learnable lists, when/if those
issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to
your "Guide" to my NL, which was sent to you soon after you subscribed.... obviously, this NL is a "work in process", a true lifetime learning tool for you, and not an "overnite junk NL", and I want to do my best for you....we are just beginning, and you will be receiving a ton of useable, learnable, specific information from here, and in my "essays/booklets", and in future special reports....thanks again, and spread the word.
*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you
a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be
done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "illiquid" than
others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my
valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for
various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people
would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly,
right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more
quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE
sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are "worth acting on"
at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) if
those issues are also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)