1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
This, my new newsletter (NL), and Educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas, to show YOU, as Newer subcribers, all the Recently/Past suggested ideas, which I shared with my L.T. followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts of, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn. Remember, all my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's....and, all my "booklets/essays".

*** To Review: on 8/31, we got the "baby/bathwater" action I have taught you to look for, ridiculously bearish throw-in-the-towel sentiment/action, with a probable V.S.T. bottom, after the first hour or two, on Tues. 9/1....a rare, perfect "scalping time", I told ex-clients to "just close your eyes and buy Something on my list, if those stocks are still right near recent lows, in a base or an "EVB" long, with close stops at that time....also, obviously, we saw the normal "front page scare headlines", another "PSYCLE sm" S.T. bottom occurance, etc. So, I recommended also taking Tons of profits off the "Puts" table, and began dippping our toes into the Long-side again....Remember, we are NOT ever trying to predict "Indexes" themselves, just taking advantage of normal, usual, "PSYCLE sm" patterns in Individual stocks, right ? with NO emotion, NO "scenarios /stories/linkages" (re-read that Booklet)....But you really gotta learn how to do many "Puts," as I teach, for the next times....of course, many people missed 4 months of large % Puts Gains already, and is now too late for most.

*** also LEARN THIS: Most recently, while we are catching plenty of EVB's Long here for you, though we may "miss" some "EVB's" here, know, that often, in market mini-crashes, the specialists on the floor must "take out the lows", to "shake out" the last "scared holders", by breaking many EVB stocks, even below recent lows, and getting even good traders negative/scared at those times, dig ? As a result, a) we will often get S.T. price rises into a "vacuum" for a few days on many (already occuring, yes ?), and, b) often, it is better, in the bigger "Perspective" (read my Booklet on that, with "Scenarios") to "hang in there" and/or Buy EVB's Long, rather than capitulate, at times like Monday/Tuesday lows. In any case, I still prefer to see much higher volume traded, in our potential EVB stocks, before I will buy some, and, then, still, only near recent lows....so, we may miss some, but we will still catch plenty, Long, at these kinds of times.... Most of the very recent bounces off lows are VERY normal....as I have suggested, current long-side patterns are similar to those after the 1987 crash, on a smaller scale, so far....With, soon, some backing-and-filling, the masses remaining confused, or forgetting or refusing to acknowledge the damage done recently, etc., while WE are strong enough to buy some EVB's, with close stops, here....NOTE how many new "EVB's" have been Added after recent drops, in Section (3) and (6) below. ....you should know by now, what it means overall, when the PUTS list shrinks, and the EVB-Longs list increases, S.T., yes ?

Important: Remember, I am pretty Comprehensive, herein....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....most other NL's leave you hanging....Know, that there are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed herein: a) Stocks that can be taken advantage of, here and now, if right near given prices, b) Stocks which, if they get back to where they were when originally suggested, remain/become tradeable again, and, c) Stocks which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and might also illustrate Industry Groups potentially shaping up, and/or as Educational ideas....Try to "view" the past 1-year-back charts of all ideas, for best learning of patterns....all ideas are followed up till "sold" or "removed", for your benefit. Do try to find charts which also have 200 DMA 's on them, physically, or through your computer, or on the web. Plenty of free places on the web to do so. Learn the chart patterns, then add the "sentiment" patterns, and voila....Puts in march/April, Puts in July/August, and Q, large % Gains in depresseds in between, with some small losses in long-siders, of lesser consequence....

FIRST ---IMPORTANT--- except for next Tuesday, until further notice, the online URL, to get all future NL's, will still be, first, "the URL for my main web page", then add, each successive time, as a "suffix", a forward slash, then that date, then "letter.html" , ok ?, as in, " /83198letter.html " , " /90398letter.html ", etc., got that ? all small case letters, no spaces.... Every Mon., and Thu., after 11 am, PST, (2 pm, EST), for now....they may on occasion be available as early as 10 am, pst, if I can finish them earlier....Hope this helps. Obviously, only actual subscribers will get this 'code', and, down the road, I will change this anyway, and, I am examining changing this whole format, so non-subscribers cannot figure this out, etc. Taking the time to Glean "the message", is much more important then the medium, yes ?

second: Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3) each NL.

third, hope you notice, I have been putting more actual "learning/feeling items" into each NL....remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those stocks remain aok....many EVB's may form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6) below....also, note, due to recent cracks in many depresseds here, have either, cut Q, small losses in some (no harm, in a properly diversified portfolio, and , again, do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate recent past perfomance forward forever PSY-chologically, nor make this a bigger occurance than it is", etc.). no biggie....I hope you cut Long-side losses, and Bought some PUTS, recently !!!

fourth, Been telling you, this "Split" market, has now finished giving us many more real nice Put gains, but we are also still playing close to the vest, meaning, keeping close stops, and NOT getting emotional nor excited, when cutting Q, small losses, nor with big Puts winners, and am continuing to hold/raise some cash....For the umpteenth time, "the market" is neither "the indexes", nor an important "thing" to even be concerned with....Note how, recently, the daily changes in "Averages" are often meaningless --- they often tell us NOTHING about what is really going on WITHIN the markets, do they ? Only by following all the individual stocks WITHIN, visually, can one come closer to knowing what is really happenening, and what best to do, yes ?

*** Important: Please ask the people around you if they have ever bought Puts properly before....if not, get them to me, and I will help them also, with Puts. ...Remember, as I told you, early in June, any "new highs" in the DJIA and OTC, or other "indexes", were going to, as with March/April, be UN-confirmed by the actual internals (A/D, and H/L figures), and hence, you have now seen the many recent big corrections, as expected, in many previously extended stocks, that I gave you herein, yes ? (with many stopping, at least initially, around their 200 DMA's, yes ?) Of course, I am also upset with even the small cut losses I gave out, among some depressed longs.... BUT--- and this is crucial: please do NOT "label" any corrections as possibly a "bear" market....who cares.... just try to do what is "right", what the "PSYCLE sm" says, and ignore all "market talk"....and Re-read my booklets, as to why all "labelling" is harmful to your psyche, and performance ....also, note, how the "psychological" nuance of the recent declines, which smacks of stage 5 or stage 6 for most previously-strong blue chips, and late stage 7, early stage 1, EVB's, for many now-low-priced depressed "Land-Based Industry groups" and Techs, so far, which we began buying again last week....

Also, please do Not let any "Q, S, cut losses" among Longs recently past, prevent you from taking advantage of present/future ideas....just a couple of bigger winners (some of which I have already given here, and will continue to give over time) will more than overcome a few very small cut losses among Puts/Longs, in the meantime....the Key, is not to quit prematurely, stay with the concept, learn the basic patterns, be patient, we have just started, and try to DO "some- thing", diversified, w/close stops, which best fits your various situational accounts and needs, especially Puts, in the recent past....LEARN as much as you can about my "PSYCLE sm", also read All my essays/booklets, and view/learn their Patterns. IMPORTANT: Key: remember, all suggested ideas herein, REMAIN buys near lows, or puts near highs, (only) as long as their patterns do remain intact, even if weeks or months pass !!! But when/if their patterns crack/break, they are removed very quickly, as you know....

Remember, we do NO "market average/index predictions," ever....but, I expect you to notice, for instance, when I have added a lot more Puttables, or a lot more Longs, as a template, for gleaning the tambor of the "overall market", at those times....for instance, when some depresseds began to crack, and I have added many more Puts, that should have told you what was coming, back in June, yes ? Logical, relaxed, simple....always watch those 200 Day Moving Averages (200 DMA's)

So, "pick your potion(s)," FIRST, from Section (3) ---then from sections (6) and (7), long and/or short side, for cash, or on margin, or only L.T., in-the- money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you have never done Puts, this has been the time to Learn how to do so, using my "booklet/ essay" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. top, which may next exist in the early Fall, after the rallies after this decline ?

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

*** INITIAL NOTE: obviously, with the cash you have made/raised, from either, having held above-average cash balances anyway, and/or having made money in Puts, and/or having properly cut losses from some Longs, 1) as happened in May/June, it is now a bit Late, to "begin" to buy Puts across-the-board....the time for that was weeks ago....but some will again be puttable ahead, but only after bounces towards highs/resistance....2) we still want to look to buy, Long, with close stops, those depr. stocks which have NOT made new lows recently, dig ? Obviously, many are more EVB's, now, than weeks ago, right ? Remember, I was here, in 1982, 84, 87, late 1990, mid-1994, Oct. 1997, etc., and on a smaller scale, the recent drops fulfilled most of my S.T. downside expectations, Tuesday "after the first hour", as I suggested would occur....

*** NOTE, how in the opposite manner to past months, where "strength in some name stocks masked internal weakness/deterioration", now, on a S.T. basis, "weakness in name/financial/blue chips are masking stage 7/stage 1, or EVB's, in many depressed stocks", dig ?

a) Important Industry Group notes: Nifty: as predicted here, the Crude Oil contract UP another 1.00 Thursday, and more on Fri., 9/4, from 13.00 where I gave it to you herein, to 14.96 real quickly, and many Oil Service stocks up....we missed some, and caught some, for you....also, our Golds popping again....you know I hate 95 % of all Fundamentals, but, Foreign purchases of Gold recently HAVE risen a lot, and "commercial" commodity holders are long(er) more Gold now, than I can recember reading about in quite a while....So, any logical, scentient, prudent person, must at least begin to buy a "package of speculative depressed cheap Golds" down here, near recent lows, with stops below recent lows, as part of a properly diversified portfolio....but NEM, for instance, is up close to its 200 DMA already (sos), see it ? NO emotional judgements, NO "scenarios" ! Note: some of the Energy/Metals may form "double-bottoms", "W" patterns, vs. EVB's....

b) Oh, and, Wed. 9/2, front page O.C. Register newspaper, biz. section, titled, "Down, Down, Down (in big letters)....watch for prices to drop further because of a worldwide oversupply of crude Oil": as usual, a beautiful CONTRARY S.T. bottom indicator, for oil prices, dig ? They showed a table showing "more supply glut", saying prices would be "still falling"....yet, WE saw the actual CHART of crude futures, and the EVB's in Energy Stocks, here, right ? And, from Wed. a.m., crude was UP from 13. to 15. already, dig ? Once again, we see, an EVB, accompanied by a "wrong/late near the lows" Media article, right at the S.T. bottom....neat.

c) similarly, in Forbes mag. recent 9/7 issue, Kenneth Fisher, the son of a reknowned "computer formula inventor for stock values", evidently just capitulated in Precious Metals issues, (quote) "I throw in the towel on (long from Jan. 98, he had put 8 % of his portoflio in 10 depr. gold stocks) gold, and admit my foray was a mistake." Right near last weeks' lows....It is, of course, also nice to see another marketeer admit mistakes, as we do....A valued NL subscriber alerted me to this, as a nice "contrary S.T. bottom indicator", dig ? See ? some of my students ARE learning....thanks, J.T.

d) more CNBC "PSYCLE-opposite",""PSYCLE sm" was/is right, while Wall St. was/is wrong" issues/comments: Bob Pisani., Fri. 9/4, 8:30, pst: reported Pfizer falling further, saying, "on lower than expected Viagra sales....who would have thought that would happen ?" Well, as you know when I specifically called the Top in PFE at 117-120. here, when too many ignorant people "began" to ask about Viagra, into way too much Media hype (i.e., stage 4 sign, right ?) I did....Also, he is misleading millions, when he said, 8:30 am, 9/4, "Apple is forming a base here at $ 35.", when, in fact, its "base", as I also predicted in previous NL's at that time, when everyone else incorrectly said Apple would go Out Of Business (remember ? you probably said so yourself, before you met my "PSYCLE sm"), was in the $ 13-15. area, right ? (go view AAPL 2-3-years' past chart). And, another CNBC reporter, 9/2, at 11:35 am, reporting "more negative news" on N.W. Airlines, strike, layoffs, said, (quote) "let's see what that bad news did to NWAC stock.... up 1/8 ....hmmm....go figure...." PSYCLE sm note: after being the first/only guy to actually call the Top in NWAC (go view its one-year-past chart), over 60., in advance, in writing, guess what now ? Yup, NWAC is beginning to show stage 7 "S.T. EVB bottom soon" action, INTO the "worsening news" that reporters are now disseminating, dig ? And, Thu. 9/2, 9:40 am, Bob O'Brien, Sr. writer, Dow Jones (quote) "blue chips have been moving with no rhyme or reason, all over the place. ....big swings...." WRONG....blue chips fell recently, because the SHOULD have fallen, because their previously-formed, normal, NOT unusual, patterns said they should have...."Volatility," itself (re-read my Booklet on "Scenarios/Words"), has been NO higher than "usual" in them, and Blue Chips have NOT "been all over the place...." They have been simply falling in very NORMAL patterns, no different than many times before....Then, as a "CYA/excuse just in case add-on" , he said, "but, I'm just a newswriter...." As if to say that anything he says (and he is quoted a TON of times, on CNBC, often) is useless, or, not correct or accurate or of directly-useable-future-price-predictive value ("D.U.F.P.P.V."), or not worth listening to/following, anyway.... well, at least he said it.

e) L.A. Times, 9/5, article, titled, "Miniscule Latin Amer. Markets hold their own": showed how, while some of the bigger Latin Amer. markets broke support recently (but not by much, as I said herein), Panama City's market was up +56 %, Costa Rica +100 % in 1998 in dollar terms, Guatemala up big, El Salvador up big, markets, as (quote) "safe havens"....hey, I admit, even I was not aware of this, and/but it does, again, point out, as I teach, it is better to view the Individual issues/areas themselves, and NOT just the large "Indexes/Averages" which often present useless/misleading/incomplete pictures....There are always exploitable areas long, even in "general declines", and always exploitable Put issues even in a L.T. "bull market", as we have proven here, for years now....That's why we view 2,500 individual charts each weekend, to find the gems within....

f) My "PSYCLE sm" potential Real Estate top, follow-up: L.A. Times, 9/1: article title, "New-Home Sales Dip, Well Below Forecasts....record-setting pace slows, in July, as booming housing industry levels off": their "National" number, nevertheless, shows what only my "PSYCLE sm" has possibly 1st foreseen....While, as I said, tops are "processes", and sometimes take weeks, or a few months, the beginning-of-the-end of the high-growth numbers, is still likely in place in amny areas, nationwide....Even as lending rates fell, new home sales dipped (even allowing for seasonal adjustments) in the West, Northeast, and, the most, in the Midwest, the article said....They mentioned the GM strike, Asia, etc., but a drop is a drop....of course, like a stock forming a H & S top, some minor new highs in prices might still occur for a while, but the easy/big price rises are ending.... As always occurs, supply will catch up/increase, but by then, some declines may already have occured, as usual, historically, as I try to teach....And, by the time "the Media" reports that, housing prices might be in S.T. stage 5 or 6...

g) "Investor surveys" follow-up: Prudential surveyed (8/28 to 8/31) a bunch of its clients, and 89 % said they have NOT made major changes in their portfolios very recently....as I said, too many people, make too few changes (or ever exploit the Downside), over time, and, "the 95 %" (or, in this case, "the 89 %") get the "deer in the headlights" inaction, when stocks move as they have lately, instead of LEARNING to recognize/exploit top patterns, etc. This means, again, that, when/if extended stocks fall anew, they will likely not sell/put anything into bounces here, either, right ?

h) Hong Kong follow-up: WSJ, 9/3: they wrote, that, as I mentioned to you recently here, the H.K. Govt. evidently now holds 12 % of their blue-chip stocks....they then pondered, "to whom they are going to sell, what they now own, if prices do not rise much from here...."

i) Mutual Fund follow-up: article, 9/6, L.A. Times, reviewed how many MF's pull shenanigans, like, not telling the public of Misclassifying, Previously merged funds, Relating returns to incomplete time periods, Incubated funds with T.R.'s from early insiders only, Mgmt. changes, etc. They must have read my recent NL also. Also, L.A. Times, 9/7: I was surprised to see a Lipper-derived table of "avg. annualized returns" for some general MF categories, over the last 5 years, showing much Lower 5-year returns, for categories like, Natural resources, Small stock, Real Estate, Emerging-market, Asian, Latin, Global, funds....all the areas which my "PSYCLE sm" saw/sees a very recent bottom in....hmmmm....j) if you had BT. long Puts on the US Dollar Index, from 101.5 to below 98.0, real quickly, get out on next weakeness, for another quick large % Gain....oh, and am seeing more give-aways of Beanie Babies, at sports events, and, I also visited card shops over this weekend, and every one, sees the bloom gone from B.B. hotness ....but "the PSYCLE sm" saw the top was first.

k) please take this one in the spirit intended: Sep. 1, article, WSJ, "Market Slide Ravages Value of CEO's Options", wants people to cry for already-super- wealthy execs at huge companies, whose sometimes unfairly cheap stock options lost money, on paper, in recent declines....Now, some are trying to get their "option prices" lowered....Hey, I am all for people getting all they can, but, again, as with Insider Sales, and my personal experience as a long-time broker, if they were that smart, maybe they should have had Puts (non-144 stocks, of course), or at least hedged ? Maybe some karma at work there ?

l) This is not a formal prediction....but, Investors Intelligence sentiment figures still shows 40.7 % as bullish....FYI, in July 1994, that figure was only 23.3. %, then much of that market bottomed that November....Also, that their number of stocks below their 150 -day moving Averages shows damage that would normally take 6 months or so to mend/fulfill....Of course, many oversold issues must bounce soon, regardless....Last, we never scenariozie, but the recent mini- crash pretty-much equals the 1990, 13-week one, in many ways, already, in just the last 10 weeks, as of "after the first hour" last Tuesday....Please re-read my "Media" and "Scenarios" booklets, to see how, many "external, assumed fundamental" factors to NOT necessarily have to occur, in order to create big drops, nor EVB's (like, higher I.R.'s, lower dollar, lower earnings, etc.). Stay with the CHART PATTERNS, and ignore most all the "externals", right ?

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
(always remember to view 1-year-at-least past charts of everything you can view, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's) and (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period....VQ = very quick; i.e., less than 3-4 weeks holding period) also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades, (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" rules), and also try to view their 1-year-past price charts, to see the patterns, and where/when they were Hypothetically, originally "bought", all longs near lows, all puts near highs).