Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
issue # 29, dated: 9:30 am, PST, Monday, Sept. 14, 1998

(Save all my Cumulative letters, for future reference/educational help)....these each tend to run about 10-11 pages in length, printed out....so much valuable info., please read my Entire letters. Of course, if you choose, say, not to "do" Puts, or Options, ever (Not the best approach, mind you, as you have seen), or if you are not "already long" those stock/puts positions/ideas listed, you may feel like ignoring some parts of the sections below--- but it is much better if you take the time to check ALL ideas shared herein....you can always also refer back to "the Guide" (green) booklet, for more info./details....The process will become second nature to you quickly: buying longs, and buying puts, with close stops,

FIRST, from Section (3) --- and also, from in sections (6) and (7) when those set up properly, always cutting losses when stocks break their patterns, etc. Plus, after reading a few NL's, you will already be aware of most stocks from the recent past, and, therefore, have the choice of not/watching them again, if you are not/are looking to trade those stocks, right ? This whole process should be labor of enjoyable fulfillment and learning, and not a chore, dig ? I just give you a lot more for your money, whether you use it or not....

Again, If you are already knowledgeable about "PSYCLE sm" tenets, and/or just want the most current "actionable" stocks, FIRST, go right to Section (3)....then, to see longer lists, and potential ideas, go to sections (6) and (7)....of course, if you want to get the most, for the least, read everything....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
My newsletter (NL), and Educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas, to show you many Recently/Past suggested ideas, which I shared with my L.T. followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn the Patterns....All my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's....and, all my "booklets/essays".

*** To quickly Review: on 8/31 and 9/1, we got the normal, late stage 7/early stage 1, "baby/bathwater" S.T. bottom action, etc., representing reaching many downside targets, and signalling one must have bought "something" Long since.... Well, did you buy anything long ? Remember, we are NOT ever trying to predict "Indexes" themselves, just taking advantage of normal, usual, "PSYCLE sm" patterns in Individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, right ? with NO emotion, and NO "scenarios/stories/linkages" (re-read that Booklet). And, if you were again "afraid' to buy something Long vbery recently, please re-read my "Mastering Psychology" booklet as well....

*** also LEARN THIS: Most recently, while we ARE catching plenty of EVB's Long here for you, and though we may "miss" some "EVB's" here, know, that often, in market mini-crashes, the specialists on the floor must "take out the lows", to "shake out" the last "scared holders", by breaking many EVB stocks, even below recent lows, and getting even good traders negative/scared at those times, dig ? As a result, a) we will often get S.T. price rises into a "vacuum" for a few days on many (already occuring, yes ?), then backing-and-filling, and, b) often, it is better, in the bigger "Perspective" (read my Booklet on that, with "Scenarios") to "hang in there" and/or Buy EVB's Long, rather than capitulate, emotionally, at times like 9/1 lows. In any case, I still prefer to see much higher volume traded, in our potential EVB stocks, before I will buy some, and, then, still, only near recent lows....so, we may miss some, but we will still catch plenty, Long, at these kinds of times....Most of the very recent bounces off lows are VERY normal....as I have suggested, current long-side patterns are/were similar to those after the 1987 crash, on a smaller scale, so far....With "the 95 %" remaining confused, or forgetting or refusing to acknowledge the damage done recently, etc., while WE are strong enough to buy some EVB's, with close stops, here....NOTE how many new "EVB's" have been Added after recent drops, in Section (3) and (6) below....you should know by now, what it means overall, when the PUTS list shrinks, and the EVB-Longs list increases, S.T., yes ?

"PSYCLE sm" PSY-chological tip: instead of becoming emotional/upset that you might have "missed" some issues, and/or illogically fearful near recent lows, VIEW the chart patterns, to LEARN, so next time, you will NOT miss similarly positioned stocks, yes ?

Important: Remember, I am pretty Comprehensive, herein....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....most other NL's leave you hanging....Know, that there are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed herein: a) Stocks that can be taken advantage of, here and now, if right near given prices, b) Stocks which, if they get back to where they were when originally suggested, remain/become tradeable again, and, c) Stocks which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and might also illustrate Industry Groups potentially shaping up, and/or as Educational ideas....Try to "view" the past 1-year-back charts of all ideas, for best learning of patterns....all ideas are followed up till "sold" or "removed", for your benefit. Do try to find charts which also have 200 DMA 's on them, physically, or through your computer, or on the web. Plenty of free places on the web to do so. Learn the chart patterns, then add the "sentiment" patterns, and voila....Puts in March/April, Puts in July/August, and, now, Long some EVB's. With Q, large % Gains in some depresseds, with some small losses in long-siders, of lesser consequence, along the way.


Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....which will tell you something about "the market" overall, yes ? Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3) each NL.

I have been trying to put more actual "learning/feeling items" into each NL. Remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those stocks remain aok....many EVB's may form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6) below....do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate "recent past" performance forward forever, PSY-chologically", because you will likely miss the next bunch of gainers.

So, "pick your potion(s)," FIRST, from Section (3) ---then from sections (6) and (7), long and/or short side, for cash, or on margin, or only L.T., in-the- money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you have never done Puts, this has been the time to Learn how to do so, using my "booklet/ essay" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. top occurs, which may next exist after the rallies after this past decline....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

*** INITIAL NOTE: obviously, with the cash you have made/raised, from either, having held above-average cash balances anyway, and/or having made money in Puts, and/or having properly cut losses from some Longs, 1) as happened in May/June, it is now a bit Late, to "begin" to buy Puts across-the-board....the time for that was weeks ago....but some will again be puttable ahead, but only after bigger bounces towards highs/resistance.... 2) we still want to look to buy, Long, with close stops, those depr. stocks which have NOT made new lows recently, dig ? Obviously, many are more EVB's, now, than weeks ago, right ? Remember, I was here, in 1982, 84, 87, late 1990, mid-1994, Oct. 1997, etc., and on a smaller scale, the recent drops fulfilled most of my S.T. downside expectations, Tuesday 9/1, "after the first hour", as I suggested would occur....I have also seen many actual "insider" buys recently, as I mentioned previously here....

a) Important Industry Group comments: finally, AFTER recent rises, CNBC highlights "gold" stocks, Thu. 10th, dig ? a S.T. stage 2 occurance, right ? watch the still-falling 200 DMA's on the Golds, and the Oil Service stocks I gave you here, as initial upside targets/resistance (see Section (8) below).... obiviously, anyone can see the "very S.T." bottom in many stocks (and "Indexes" we usually ignore). and, note, I added a plethora of new Section (6) EVB's, and more industry groups, etc. And "spread the word", tell Media sources, so I can reach, and help many more nice people do better.....thanks....

b) WSJ, 9/11, article: "Oil Patch Braces for Casualties of Price Slump": again, showing, that, what happens to "companies", may NOT jive, in late stage 7, early stage 1, with what happens to their "stocks" prices, especially when timed properly....they also suggested more mergers may occur....but no "takeover predictions" here, just good technical timing analysis for you in the Oil Service issues, counter to "the real or perceived fundamentals". Of course, a better public service might have been for them to have published such an article, LAST WINTER, BEFORE they fell big, dig ?

c) L.A. Times, 9/1: headline, "Market Plunge--- Wall Street Goes Looking for Clues": So what else is new....and, WSJ, 9/11, headline: "Options Prices Surge as many money Managers Seek Protection From Stock Decline": showed their put/call ratio, as 3.40 was spent on Puts, for every 1.00 spent on Calls--- which, if you understand contrary "PSYCLE sm" indicator signals, was BULLISH, S.T. right ?

d) WSJ, 9/10: a table, of their compilation of "How 18 Growth-related Mutual Funds Catagories Stack Up in Total Returns", showed, as I intimated recently here, how LOW (compared to assumptions of "the 95 %") past-five-year-annualized returns have been for MF categories....specifically, according to the WSJ, the best "growth" subset, (health & biotech), "only" returned less than +19 % a year, compunded, the last 5 years....not that great, for the supposed "best" area, no ? And their "growth" funds themselves have returned "only" 14 % annualized, last 5 years, while, "small-cap, and mid-cap" only returned 10 % yearly the last 5 years ....and, of course, Asian, Pacific, Latin, Gold, had avg. Losses, of -8 to -15 % per year, each....Certainly not house-on-fire returns, for supposedly great money managers....almost none of whom ever buy Puts, exploit the downside, have proper stops, ignore 95 % of useless externals/fundamentals, etc. Hopefully some day, "the PSYCLE sm Fund" will be available....One can certainly do better than these 5-year numbers, especially when we properly do "puts", and use "stops", yes ?

e) A quickie about economics (I was a T.A. and majored in Macroeconomics at a major university, but quit after I became an investment broker, when I later learned how useless such items were, as D.U.F.P.P. factors): Briefly, 95 % of all incorrectly assumed "economic/financial factors" with respect to potential specific future investment-price movements, are of little or no help, as you know (re-read my booklets on Media, and Scenarios/Linkages)....One item, "interest rates" (IR's) in a particular country, have always been pretty-much useless, by themselves (but "the 95 %" and "the media" and "wall street" continue to report, incorrectly, and assume, that they ARE of value, but I digress), to "try" to predict future stock prices, etc. Simply put, in historical fact, as I have proven countless times over the years, lower/higher IR's do NOT somehow "automatically lead" to higher/lower stock prices ! Take Japan--- very recent WSJ article showed a chart of Japan's Discount Rate, since 1990, falling from 6.00 %, to 0.25 % now....Down steadily, a lot, right ? YET--- their Nikkei. stock index, has ALSO simultaneously Fallen, from 39,000 to 14,500 , right ? So, thay had much Lower IR's, WITH much Lower stock prices--- completely contrary to that which "the 95 %" have been misled/mistaught to believe, dig ? Gee, have you ever seen IR's fall to "negative %" numbers ? yeah, right....One more time: most ALL "linkages" are WRONG in historical fact....Last, Japan's "YEN", Rose the last few years, vs. the U.S. dollar, right ? Yet, their stocks also still Fell, right ? Yet, "the Media" has always incorrectly "linked" higher stocks with higher currencies, yes ? "PSYCLE sm" Case closed, yet again....IGNORE 95 % of all externals/fundamentals", and, instead, learn the chart and behavioral pattern I teach. Actually, our Blue Chips got whacked recently, even AS our IR's also fell, right ? NO "link" there either.

f) note, NWAC hit 30+, up 5, since my "PSYCLE sm" "contrary-media stage 7 bottom signal", last time here, dig ? well, Are you learning ?

g) L.A. Times, 9/11: article, "Financial, Oil Sectors Hit hard by Profit Shortfalls": true, from a "company/financial point of view", but the Oil "stocks" have RISEN recently, right ? and the depressed Financials (see Section (6) below), are due to bounce decently soon as well....proving the "PSYCLE sm" again....

h) L.A. Times, 9/11, article, "Upheaval Widens U.S. Trade Gap": many recent articles showing steadily increasing U.S. foreign trade deficits---supposedly assumed "nagetive" for 'stocks", yet, until very recently, haven't the biggest company STOCKS been rising, INTO such a rising "supposedly bad" gap ? hmmmm.... see (e) above....such "links" do NOT work.

i) L.A. Times, 9/11, article, "Yes, Stocks have Outperformed--- Most of the Time": showed, the roughly 11 % annual return for "stocks" the last 60 years or so everyone has been told about, but, that, factually, 80 to 90 % of the 60-year gains, occured in just 2 to 7 % of the "time", in occasional 'up spurts', with the rest of the time, S & P returns have been much smaller....interesting, huh ? Another problem, besides people not using stops, nor Puts, properly, the last 25 years, correctly, is that "buy and hold", includes all the decent-sized drops, that blue chips, and techs, and resources stocks have had, for extended lengths of time, at times....Further, they showed, that, using 10-year holding periods, one's odds of getting more than just 10 % annual returns, have only been 53 %, not such great odds....anyway, so I don't completely confuse you, the bottom line: one MUST learn to "time" and/or "sell" and/or do "puts" on INDIVIDUAL stocks better, at all times....as I said in late 1997, just "buy-and-hold", will not cut it for a while, more so than in recent years past.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
 (always remember to view 1-year-at-least past charts of everything you can view, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's) and (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period....VQ = very quick; i.e., less than 3-4 weeks holding period) also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades, (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" rules), and also try to view their 1-year-past price charts, to see the patterns, and where/when they were Hypothetically, originally "bought", all longs near lows, all puts near highs).

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (price changes from where/when originally recommended shown):
 puts on the U.S. Dollar futures contract (102.5 to 96.0) for VVQ large % gain....puts JCOR (61 to 48+) for VQ 125% Gain....puts VRTS (56 to 46+) for Q 90% Gain....and, longs, SEW, VAR, STN, TPS, MME, puts, LGTO, BLS, for VQ, very small losses.

I had now given you at least 85 (wow) Quick, Large % Puts Gains, specifically, just recently, here (with just a few VQ, VS puts losses just last week), plus a whole bunch more, which "we" missed herein, but "you" could still have caught, big-time, from July tops, to 9/1 S.T. lows....I hope you had at least "some" of my successful Puts recently. Please View their charts. You have had plenty of opportunity to catch ALL of them right near prices suggested herein, many, over a period of days or weeks....Obviously, also a bunch of Q,S losses in Long-siders here, and, now, a ton of Long-side risers again....A proper portfolio should have had a few Q, small cut losses long-side, AND also at least a few big % Gains in some Puts, lately....And, new Long buys again last week....See section (5) below for more details on recent-past Puts, to learn from....And, many depressed longs which broke their support a little recently, may well bounce back up towards where they broke down below, anyway, S.T., allowing another opportunity to get out of those, as taught in my Booklets.

IMPORTANT note: obviously, with recent action, I have had to reasess some "potential" longs, in Section (6) below, so, be sure to view their charts, first, before thinking of buying those, to make sure they are not breaking to new lows... As I have taught you here countless times, we NEVER buy "new lows" long !!! Only near previous support, or on cathartic EVB volume/action, when the whole industry group also sets up....so, relax, wait for the EVB's, or bases, to form a bit, but hope you DID buy long something I gave you here, last week....And, of course, do not get "turned off" to the market, ever....that would be weak, psychological overreactive, non-PSYCLE behavior, right ?

Note: as I say above, we have had to cut some more quick, Small losses, in some more depr."Techs/Asians/Energies", at times, as some of their patterns seemed to have broken....even when/if they revalidated, in a properly diversified portfolio, With at least "some" Puts, at times, and those should not have been of any consequence, in one's L.T. performance....and/but those have beem MORE balanced by recent large % Gains, in some similar issues, and, of course, I also gave you a Ton of Large Puts % Gains, assuming you have properly diversified.... When Longs break/broke below recent lows, as I teach in my booklets, we are OUT, the vast majority of the time....I just do NOT want any "bigger losses", right ? One can always get back in later....It is better to preserve capital, and one's mental and PSY-chological health....as I say herein, some of these might still have the "rally back up to where they broke down from", and/or form lower bases, and/or double-bottom "W" formations ahead, which, when/if they occur, I will let you know, as usual....but, breakdowns below support, are not argued with.

Remember, you can always also go back and view the 1-year-past charts, of the many previously "Hypothetically completed" successful PUTS trades from previous NL's, to "see/learn" more, and this also illustrates why one must Diversify, buying at least a Few suggested ideas, and at least "some" Puts, at all times, right ? we are in this for the long haul....my approach keeps you in the game, for when those big gainers occur for us...."just get close(r)", as I teach.

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right near these prices only:
(either for cash, especially in pensions, and/or on margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/ available, always diversifying, always with close stops below/above recent lows/highs): (note: If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables", long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price.... and, a " + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-, means, 55 5/8 to 56, dig ?)....again, the idea is to just get "real close" to my listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....


**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential rises: (note, more/new names here):
CTI. @ 7 9/16, OXHP @ 6 1/8, VIAS @ 6 13/16, AFCI. @ 6 1/8, CIV @ 20+, VGZ @ 1/8, SSC @ 11/16, RYO @ 7/16, AZC @ 9/16, AHG @ 4+, BUR @ 9 5/8, VTR @ 10+, BDI. @ 4 11/32, BS @ 7 5/8, ADPT @ 10 3/8, VRC @ 9-, RN @ 22 5/8, ATW @ 17 9/16, SYBS @ 6 1/8, BNYN @ 2 5/16, PDE @ 8, BW @ 15-, ODETA @ 5 3/8, ANET @ 5 1/2, GCO @ 5, IOM @ 3 9/16, TAM @ 5 1/8, SRM @ 8 11/16, PH @ 29-, OEA @ 8-, UNP @ 38+, LDW @ 9, FINL @ 9+, LSI. @ 12, PHL @ 4 5/8, WY @ 38+, MCL @ 10, BEV @ 7 3/4, NSC @ 29-, CCH @ 9/32, OLS @ 6.06, AND @ 5 3/4, AG @ 8+, BDG @ 30+, LZ @ 23+, LTV @ 5 1/2, Z. @ 9+, SOL @ 15....pretty all much Tue. "after the first hour-type" EVB buys, dig ? note, more Long buys here, yes ? something for everyone here, yes ? ...."buy low", right ? and, note we are revisiting some "previously traded" issues....and/but many New ones....
LEARN THIS: when I had been seeing fewer "quality" higher-priced stocks as depressed buy patterns, that should have told you something about "the market", back in June....but have been adding more, After the recent mini-crash, dig ? Please try NOT to read, nor "emote", about news stories about worldwide financial/economic/political events..

also Note, some of these are some are New....and most are "repeats"....also, note, the "long-side" lists have gotten more UN-clear all-of-a-sudden....a real mish-mosh....remember, one does not "have" to trade all the time.

** Important: took, HWS, CTU, ATC, TPS, ICI., --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows....also remember the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, and some $ 5-10. stocks, and some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.

Important: unless issues are listed specifically above, here in Section (3) in a NL, they may NOT be buys right here....remember, a valuable part of the "process", is that we have "actionable right near here now" stocks (Section (3)), and also, "watching for hopefully becoming ready to buy near lows in their depressed patterns soon" stocks (section (6))....Section (3) is for Now -- Section (6) and (7) are for soon/later and learning....be sure to read the "Guide", the "BDG/EVB essay" and the "Downside" booklet (and all 6 booklets) offered....very inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for learning timing/patterns....I try to make this easy for you. But, always start, with Section (3), here, first.

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS", for potential Drops:
CPWR @ 58+, SWC @ 27 1/2, UCM @ 36+, FPC @ 41+, BBY @ 50+, HOU @ 29-,

as with the Long side, some are new Puttables, some are repeats....obviously, given recent declines, its a bit "late" to "begin buying most puts blindly here". And/but, took, NTAP, DT, off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested stock will break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed double-bottom/EVB/base pattern....So I am assuming, you actually have Viewed it's recent chart, BEFORE you consider buying any/those issues as Longs or Puts, and you will see/know this, and therefore NOT buy that particular stock....this takes just 10 seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns.

....and/but, we just Missed, COMS, RDRT, AXNT, GEMS, IQSW, TVX, COG, RON, VST, EVI., HAL, COG, APA, SEI., FWC, HA, NA, DO, NR, banks/insur., as Longs near recent "EVB" lows, and, none, as Puts near recent highs, among stocks recently given you herein (also view last lists given you here).
Important: while I have given you a ton of successful Puts, note how many more big-name, higher-priced stocks have formed double-tops-with-lower-second-tops, not even giving us the chance to get into their puts....as I have been saying here, this was NOT a good sign for "the market", from March and July, dig ? I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" and LEARN the patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing the charts of the puts/longs here which we just "missed", also tells us, whether the market is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? So this also helps us know the nature of the market at any given time....that's why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for the future.

As I said, it may still continue semi-rough for a while yet, in some long-side issues....Again, while the Media "worries" about "earnings" impacts of various crises, the STOCKS of the companies involved will likely Bottom, and rise, even as "lower financials" are announced, into fear, once they bottom, right ? And, as we have already seen, twice, since March, stocks of "growing fast" companies, will still FALL, at times, when they form "PSYCLE sm" tops, even as higher "earnings" are announced....So, we'll also be watching for this ahead. And, a few, small, cut losses along the way, will not hurt us much, regardless. By buying "some "PSYCLE sm" long-side stocks" down here, with close stops, we should make some money regardless, soon, again, yes ?


 All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check them briefly, to see if any YOU own, are listed....if you do not own any of them, then just concentrate on Sections (3), then (6) and (7) below.

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, mentioning, and still remaining long, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy here, up already, acting O.K., so stick around:
hope you are in our "oil services" stocks...DAY 10/16 up 6/16, BNYN 3 1/4 up 1 1/8, OXHP 8 5/8 up 2 5/8, ATW 22- up 4 1/2, SII. 28 1/2 up 6, IOM 4 1/4 up 3/4, AFCI. 8- up 1 7/8, VIAS 8 1/2 up 1 3/4, BDI. 4 7/8 up 5/8, AHG 5 up 5/8, TAM 6 up 1 1/8, ANET 6 1/2 up 1 1/8, OEA 8 3/4 up 1, PDE 9 5/8 up 1 5/8, ORX 14 3/4 up 2, BW 16 1/8 up 1 1/2, DI. 33 5/8 up 2 7/8, VRC 11 5/8 up 1, MRL 12 1/4 up 1, ESV 15- up 1 1/4, OLS 6 1/2 up 5/8, BEV 8 1/2 up 7/8, NVX 9- up 7/8, SRM 9 3/8 up 3/4, DGN 10 1/8 up 3/4, MCL 10 5/8 up 3/4, FINL 10 up 1, WY 40 3/4 up 2 3/4, RN 23 3/4 up 1 1/4, LZ 24 3/8 up 1 1/8, PH 30- up 1 1/4, NSC 30 1/2 up 1 3/4, UNP 40 up 1 3/4, BDG 30 1/4 up 1, ATML 8 3/8, VTR 11 1/4, CIV 21+, CTI. 8-, up/further, just since last time here....also, NEM 22, still higher (S)....Given recent action, that my concept has still given out/caught many stocks which are UP into this decline, recently, is satisfying....I certainly hope you properly Cut quick small losers recently/properly....remember, after mini-crashes, often, the first reflex-dead- cat bounces do not necessarily hold, but many DO, so we ACT to take advantage, regardless....

and/but, then, ADPT 11 up 3/4, EGGS, CUBE, DEN, HUM, PKX, BEV, HNP 8 3/4 up 3/4, IKN, PH, NN, and many others, pb (pulling back)....and, Oil Services pulled back, then are UP nicely again, as "the Dow" fell 250, Thursday....pretty good, huh....again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed stocks", even in qualified plans/ pensions accounts, with stops, diversified.... Again, you must buy at least FEW, always diversifying, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" That is Impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues ....maybe 5 or 10, long-siders, and also 5 or 10 put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of instant/S.T. gratification.

note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a bounce up towards where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)

* and/but, these already assumed Longs, must strengthen,
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards resistance:
ADM 16 3/4 up 1 1/2, GALTF, SAMC, BNYN, SPCT, IDTI., OAKT, THDO, FTPS, CADA, VOX, WKGP, NETM, AXC, DEN, BUR, BW, KF...

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy puts on these now, but acting properly, stick around:
 Puttables specifically given you herein, which Are Falling/further: JCOR -4 (S), JDEC -1, SWC -1, FRO (S), HOU, down/ further, since last time here....note: extended Drug Stocks as new Puttables near highs.

(Important Note: "(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support"....("S") means sell/sold the long Puts right near here, or as in section (3) above)....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" puts as trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.... you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables which are declining, for their potential support targets/areas/prices.

add, DASTY, JAII., USTR, OSSI., BRK.B, TEF, SPLN, LXK, BNI., ICN, SZA, AWA, SHW, BCF, HOT, EL, to the long, long recent past list of dozens of Puttable stocks I gave you in Section (5) here near their tops, which fell/further, as predicted.

I have given you a ton of Puts winners, from March, and July, so far, yes ? remember, stocks often fall in 2 or 3 stages, even S.T., at least towards their 200 DMA....that's another reason why we ONLY buy L.T., in-the-money options, diversified, where suitable....some people say it has been quite Valuable, that my "PSYCLE sm" has found so many winning puts, in this supposed "bull" market (which, as I said, may have ended in March/April ?), which I do appreciate....hey, most other NL's and analysts and people never ever buy Puts at all !!! Yet too many people continue to listen to, and/or buy their output, when they could have ours.


* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): VRTS, JDEC, JKHY, BBY, ABS, HHS, UCM, FPC, JNJ, CTL....

Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn from.

6) other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
Please be patient here, and, again, do not "force" trades, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to buy long, here....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....but DO buy "some things" here, with close stops....also, it may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks are, right ? Near the highs March, and July, this list was smaller, yes ? See the pattern ? More "EVB"s" are logical and expected, ater recent mini-crash, yes ? Be sure to check the charts of the stocks you choose to view, the Key message being, to "see" how many ARE forming EVB's here.... also, remember, we do NOT "chase up" (obviously, there is a low chance of having to that right here and now, yes ?), only buy the ones you prefer, which are still near their lows, with stops....

note how much larger the Long-side lists have become, after the mini-crash: "industry groups": no great bases here, just some EVB's (but, again, Not if any of these make new lows here):
Semis/Comp./Techs (ADPT, SYBS, CDI., LSI., SGI., NN)
Prec. Metals (GRERF, DROOY, CCH, AZC, VGZ, RYO, SSC, DAY, CAU, all real cheapies).
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel) (PKX, IGL, HPC, COG, DE, BS, AG, GR, IST, LTV, TAM, LZ, N.)
Energy/Services (ORX, MRL, PKD, ESV, SII., FLC, VRC, EVI., PDE, BDI., VRC, ATW, RDC, BDG, DI., DO, NR)(but it is too late for most of these, now, right ?)
Health (OXHP, TOX, AHG, VTR, BEV, NVX)
Asian/Latin Amer./Foreign (TAM, KF, AWF, ROC, IIF, VNT)
and, Consumer stuff, also soon ? (RN, NIN, FINL, SGE, GCO, NA)
....while I am still watching for potential bottoms in the Farm-and-Land-related, Natural Resources, and Basic, ind. groups, (like, Steels as EVB's soon ?) which, if correct, would be a potentially important occurance, economically, given internal market history, some have still not yet occured....but got a lot closer last week....and, just FYI, these depr. "Land-based" issues have had the most Insider Buying (but early, and at higher prices): PDE, PKD, BHI., IBP, PLP, PZL, APA, SLB, UPR, BDG, LFB, ESV, EOG, LFB, NR....

*** oh, and, note, more some depressed Papers, Temp. Job, Restaurant, Telecom, Apparel, Retail, and Techs, industry groups, are also close to forming L.T. late stage 7/early stage 1 bottoms ahead, so will keep my eye on those as well for you....and this also says something about "the market" here, yes ?
Last, Thu. 10th, added, DLJ, EQ, LEH, FDC, DNB, CNC, GSB, CCI., TRV, TIG, BT, CMT, BEN, as "banks/insur.", as potential S.T. EVB's, too oversold, and, soon, "auto-relateds" (DCN, F., GR, CBE), and, "rails" (UNP, CSX), and, "shoes" (FEET, WWW, JBAK, Z.), and "jails" (CCA), soon ? Last, note pops in "biotechs" last week....on a pullback, some depresseds may shape up.... WHAT DOES ALL THIS TELL YOU ABOUT "the market" here ?

And, as I have been saying from early June here, while some depresseds Are likely to set up again, mostly being EVB's, do NOT expect as large rises this time, as when I gave them out in the late '97/early '98 period (nor, from late '95 to early '96, when I also was first/only to do so near their lows then), because they do NOT have bases here, just some with good EVB's, as with the others....and, accepting some Q, small losses so far in some, w/close stops....

and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": HWS, CTU, ATC, TPS, ICI. --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....as I have been saying, it is continuing to be a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or had more Puts (but not now)....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first....

* These are still, current, or, Potential, "EVB's", as "BDG's" ("big down gaps", read that booklet):
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off lows), as "EVB's", diversified, w/close stops, AFCI., RYO, DGN, ESV, AHG, GCO, VTR, VIAS, CIV, ADPT, MSN, GML, TOX, SSC, CDI., AZC, BDI., and, the stocks listed above here, and in the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above....(note, some are double- bottoms, some have V.S.T. bases). Also, IMPORTANT note: some EVB stocks may, instead, form S.T. "W" double-bottom patterns down here....watch for that.... be patient....some just take a bit longer to form, as per my "BDG/EVB Booklet" examples....which is fine, since we are NOT doing "overnite" trades, right ? Also note, some EVB's have been improved, from "watching" list, to the actual "EVB" list, yes ? Obviously, given recent drops, added many new EVB's, as follows:

and also Watching --- added many, SPNSF, VNTV, ANET, KLIC, GEMC, PAGE, GNCI., CLCX, AES, GDC, FWC, IOM, IRF, LDW, LSS, TEK, TBR, TER, WY, USF, CZN, CBE, AES, ACK, CA, DBD, CTI., CA, ACK, MCY, PHV, TNL, LZ, SEI., SOL, FWC, NH, AG, GW, BGO, UTI., AXC, MS, MMG, Z., to, DBRSY, GRERF, RAYS, ALDA, GGUY, VSNR, LTV, OEA, ILX, AND, IQSW, CMTL, MRVC, PDE, GALTF, AMSWA, ALTR, ATML, CMTL, EFII., AFCI. FINL, SGE, SRM, SFY, BS, RN, NSC, TAM, GSR, AWF, PHL, MCL, TSA, ODETA, CAU, SAMC, LB, SYBS, RDRT, DAY, IGL, NVX, DEN, EGGS, BNYN, DANKY, PHV, VTR, BEV, OLS, KF, OXHP, CCH, HUM, NIN, PH, NA, N., as "EVB's", but some Not just yet, as they need more work, technically....and/but, not when/if they make new lows....again, some of these may/will, instead, form EVB "W" "double- bottom" patterns....also, though certainly early, some "previously-loved-at-their-tops" Golf stocks are also getting cheap, technically (ELY, ALDA, ASHW, PAR)....

*** These are chosen, First, by their EVB technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals" on each, to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Also, obviously, given recent drops, the "potential EVB list" is bound to grow, somewhat, yes ? Last, on some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or rise, dig ? Many stocks are being priced as if there is no tomorrow, some L.T. busted takeovers, some ridiculously high dividend yields if paid, some just beginning late stage 7/early stage 1 here. Plenty to take a shot at here, w/close stops....DO buy long some things !

7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?):
"Recent Puts Buys from Section (3)" above, plus:
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet) added, TXCC, CPWR, MEDI., NSIT, BAX, CVS, SWC, to, JKHY, JDEC, JCOR, PAYX, VMC, BBY, SBL, HOU, UCM, FPC, DRTE, CLV, GLX, MCK, FMO, COX, UMG, EWT, ATI., CBTSY, QTRN, DELL, SDG, TWX, CSG, MHP, CTL, BDX, FRX, CLX, VOD, and, again, the recently bought-puts-on stocks in section (3) above, the last few NL's, as Puttables, near their Highs, Only....note more "Drug" issues....and, Utilities, though a bit "iffy"....obviously it is now too late to buy many Puts I previously gave you, back in July....some were "EVT's" ("Exhaustion V (hook) Tops", the opposite of EVB's, get it ?), some were double-tops....some, regular "umbrella tops"....a little clearer, yes ? But, again, as of 9/1, do Not "chase down" puttables which are already down from their recent highs....we only want to buy our Puts, near their highs, with stops. Note, how the "potential puts list" has gotten a bit smaller, as more stocks have already fallen....but you probably noticed this....good.

As I have always said/taught: LEARN, that, as I have proven countless times over the years, normally, NO amount of "reported good or fundamental news" (other than a bonifide takeover offer), can prevent a stock in S.T. stage 4, 5, or 6, from falling/further....recent proof of this, lies in the declines, not only in Energies late 1997, but in Financials, Retails, and now, many others, which have fallen/are falling, in recent weeks/months --- into "higher earnings", dig ?

and/But, just Not yet, in: "already down" stocks previously given here (also see names of other "removed" stocks, in recent past NL's), NTAP, DT, taken Off potential puts list, before "put"....remember, we do NOT buy puts, when/if that issue is still making new highs....yes, we will miss "some" right near their tops, but by waiting for double-tops and/or umbrella tops to form better, we will have fewer small cut losses, and we will still catch plenty of Puts over time, with less stress....again, when/if an issue breaks out immediately after I add it, I remove it, period. You must please check the recent charts of All potential Puts ideas, which takes less than 10 seconds each, to make sure they have not broken out, before you get in.

again, The best Puttable Industry Groups Sectors, continue to be among extended Financials, Big-name, high-PE, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Consumer, Utility, Health....But, all, ONLY into a rally, ONLY near their highs, right ? Interesting, that my "puttable groups list" broadened, in July, before the recent declines, dig ? ....we will catch plenty more Puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?) (as with calls, and all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).

8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
Besides all the lessons you hopefully have gleaned, from all my past NL commentaries above, and from my (six) "essays/Booklets", and memorizing the specific characteristics of each, of the 7 (seven) sequential stages in my "PSYCLE sm", a while ago, and each NL forward for a while, wherein I covered each sequential "PSYCLE sm" stage, one by one. (this/that was very valuable information --- So, hopefully, now you know about all about stages 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, in my "PSYCLE sm", illustrated here for you....hope they helped), today's brief Lesson, is:

to Please view 1-year-past charts, of all the Oil Service stocks shared in Section (6) above....my charts showed, a) the "clusters" of Insider buys, in June (early, but real, as I mentioned to you here, and I give/gave you specific names above), b) then, the late-July, early August depressed saucer bases they formed, as an Industry group, c) on high volume, and mass negativism about energy prices itself, and "the market", d) yet their "earnings estimates" were/are still higher for next year, better than many other IG's, and, e) that S.T. depr. base in Crude itself, which I predicted for you last week....

Then, also view their still-falling 50 DMA and 200 DMA's....as S.T., then a bit longer-term, potential resistance levels, dig ? Just to name a few, on ESV, they are, 14, then, 22-23....on SII., they are 25, then 40....on MRL, 12, then 17....on BHI., 26, and 34....on BDI., 6 -ish, then 10 -ish....ATW, 26 first.... DI., 36, then 40-....SII. 38-40, L.T. ? MRL 17, L.T. ? etc., etc. See them ? Assuming they work/fulfill, that is....The others given in section (6), being more EVB's than "bases", have similar upside resistance/ target % levels....all the Oil Services also have resistance, at their June previously -broken-down-from levels, as well, right ? (Please re-read my Booklet on "BDG's/ EVB's") So, as I teach, the low-emotion upside expectations tend to continue to be, a potential rise, of 1/3 to 1/2 way back up, towards their 200 DMA's, dig ? Of course, all these moves, "if' they transpire will take TIME---they will NOT continue to rise at their very recent rates.

Last, allowing for normal pullbacks after potential breakouts, when/if those events occur, we should later see two more "PSYCLE sm" occurances: 1) less- negative news/financial media stories, and, 2) if they are going to work this time, there should be an unexpected, S.T. positive news story ahead, which almost no one foresees today....Of course, by the time that happens, when/if it happens, their stocks will already be up decently off their depressed bases/EVB's, right ?

Obviously, this same targets concept applies to all EVB's I give you....but regardless, we never pre-judge nor scenarioize with individual stocks....we let the "action" itself, tell us what to do, most of all....
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, similarly, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to never do any....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.

remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves.... this is a Good thing....Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action, like we had earlier in 1998, and, again, in August, with the Techs/Asians. The Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then (buy then ? a pun, get it ?), it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, have proven that yet again.

Last, this still is somewhat "semantics", and "stage labels" don't really matter that much here, since our expected holding period is still, 2-4 months, and we are not trying to catch longer-term, huge potential stage 3 rises....Initial Upside targets from stage 2 pullbacks (or pops up from stage 7 EVB's) are still, up around the still-falling 200 day MA's, and/or previously-broken-down-from price levels, right ? It is only important, that we recognize, and ACT to take advantage of, high-reliability patterns, like depr. bases, and/or EVB's, and/or double-bottoms, at times when "the 95 %" are most scared, near lows, with close stops, and no emotion, right ?

*** So, again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or put, stocks "Now", as long as their current prices are right near those given in Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....Section (3)....and, Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable/learnable lists, when/if those issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to your "Guide" to my NL, which was sent to you.

*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "liquid/illiquid" than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are truly "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) when/if those issues also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)