1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
My newsletter (NL), and Educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas, to show you many Recently/Past suggested ideas, which I shared with my L.T. followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn the Patterns....All my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's....and, all my "booklets/essays".

*** To quickly Review: after giving 90+ "Puts" near their July Tops herein for you, on 8/31 and 9/1, we got anormal, late stage 7/early stage 1, "baby/bathwater" S.T. bottom action, etc., representing reaching many downside targets, and also signalling one must have bought "something" Long then/since.... Well, did you buy anything long ? I cannot remember when the ratio of "PSYCLE sm" EVB's to Puttables was as high as it has been lately....Remember, we are NOT ever trying to predict "Indexes" themselves, just taking advantage of normal, usual, "PSYCLE sm" patterns in Individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, right ? with NO emotion, and NO "scenarios/stories/linkages" (re-read that Booklet). And, if you were again "afraid" to buy some things Long very recently, with close stops, please re-read my "Mastering Psychology" booklet as well....

*** also LEARN THIS: Most recently, while we ARE catching plenty of EVB's Long here for you, and though we may "miss" some "EVB's" here, know, that often, in market mini-crashes, the specialists on the floor must "take out the lows", to "shake out" the last "scared holders", by breaking many EVB stocks, even below recent lows, and getting even good traders negative/scared at those times, dig ? As a result, a) we will often get S.T. price rises into a "vacuum" for a few days on many (already occuring, yes ?), then backing-and-filling, and, b) often, it is better, in the bigger "Perspective" (read my Booklet on that, with "Scenarios") to "hang in there" and/or Buy EVB's Long, rather than capitulate, emotionally, at times like 9/1 lows. In any case, I still prefer to see much higher volume traded, in our potential EVB stocks, before I will buy some, and, then, still, only near recent lows....so, we may miss some, but we will still catch plenty, Long, at these kinds of times....Most of the very recent bounces off lows are VERY normal....as I have suggested, current long-side patterns are/were similar to those after the 1987 crash, on a smaller scale, so far....With "the 95 %" remaining confused, or forgetting or refusing to acknowledge the damage done recently, etc., while WE are strong enough to buy some EVB's, with close stops, here....NOTE how many new "EVB's" have been Added after recent drops, in Section (3) and (6) below....you should know by now, what it means overall, when the PUTS list shrinks, and the EVB-Longs list increases, S.T., yes ? But I can tell you, that Thursday's 17th declines from the opening, were the most surprising to me, as a prognosticator, I have experienced in a long time....uponj seeing this past weekend's charts, I added still many more EVB ideas, and a few Puts....

"PSYCLE sm" PSY-chological tip: instead of becoming emotional/upset that you might have "missed" some issues, at times, and/or illogically fearful near recent lows, VIEW the chart patterns, to LEARN, so the next several times, you will NOT miss similarly positioned stocks, yes ?

Important: Remember, I am pretty Comprehensive, herein....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....most other NL's leave you hanging....Know, that there are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed herein: a) Stocks that can be taken advantage of, here and now, if right near given prices, b) Stocks which, if they get back to where they were when originally suggested, remain/become tradeable again, and, c) Stocks which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and might also illustrate Industry Groups potentially shaping up, and/or as Educational ideas....Try to "view" the past 1-year-back charts of all ideas, for best learning of patterns....all ideas are followed up till "sold" or "removed", for your benefit. Do try to find charts which also have 200 DMA 's on them, physically, or through your computer, or on the web. Plenty of free places on the web to do so. call me if you need some places to get free charts....Learn the chart patterns, then add the "sentiment" patterns, and voila....So, many Puts in March/April, many more Puts in July/August, and, now, Long some EVB's. With Q, large % Gains in some depresseds, with some small losses in long-siders, of lesser consequence, along the way.

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....which will tell you something about "the market" overall, yes ? Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3) each NL.

I have been trying to put more actual "learning/feeling items" into each NL. Remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those stocks remain aok....many EVB's may form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6) below....do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate "recent past" performance forward forever, PSY-chologically", because you will likely miss the next bunch of gainers.

So, "pick your potion(s)," FIRST, from Section (3) ---then from sections (6) and (7), long and/or short side, for cash, or on margin, or only L.T., in-the- money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you have never done Puts, this has been the time to Learn how to do so, using my "booklet/ essay" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. top occurs, which may next exist after the rallies after this past decline....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

*** INITIAL NOTES: Once again, we still have a "Split" market, with some extended/names/high-priced/overpriced stocks falling, while many depresseds are forming EVB's or bases, and actually popping....awaiting better tops in extendeds, and awaiting further breakouts, and/or pullbacks, in many depresseds....but we are NOT emoting about it....we are just going to let "the action itself" tell us, which way to go, right ? Interesting, Fri. 18th, Crude Oil futures, rose, to over $ 15., and Heating Oil up more, as predicted, yet most Energy "stocks" have been pulling back, yes ? Again, there is NO "automatic/clear link" between "fundamentals" and "technicals", all the time, right ? ....re-read my booklet on "scenarios/linkages"

a) Important Industry Group comments: note, both, the expected V.S.T. pullbacks from resistance, on many Oil Services and Golds, and the expected strength in some of our depressed Techs, up, with, Thursday, the DJIA down -200, yes ? Also, seeing a plethora of S.T. EVB's in cheapie "techs/semis" here....oh, and I am getting questions about depressed REIT's here, with their "supposed" huge potential % dividend yields, etc., well, I have NO formal opinions yet, as none have nice enough chart patterns yet....historically, these will not end up paying such exorbitant levels, as, usually, their earnings end up falling, contrary to the opinions of the same overpaid analysts who were bullish on them near their highs, dig ? Ditto the depressed "Mtg./Finance stocks", just not yet)....this is also Interesting, since the entire world believes interest rates will continue to fall a lot more from here, yes ? Hmmm, what "PSYCLE sm" stage does THAT often occur in ? regardless, DO notice the plethora of new "EVB" stocks I added below in Section (6)....

b) and, since I have not yet been wrong S.T. on selected commodities, herein, note the V.S.T. tops, in the Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc, and the German Mark. ...which makes sense, since the U.S. Dollar fell as expected, and seems to have stopped its V.S.T. decline....and, since we never "guess" at tops, I still do NOT have a confirmed top in T-bonds, nor a bottom in most interest rates, yet....but it is certainly getting late in that game, like a Dow over 9,100 earlier, as I predicted in my Booklets, when I wrote them, in April, dig ? To me, bonds seem a similar situation, sentiment-wise....

c) CNBC, Joe Kernan (again), 9/17, 10:50 am, pst: showing AMGN at $ 73 or so, (quote) "that's a darn good-looking chart....money is coming into AMGN here...." Amazing....first, please view chart 1 1/2 years past, in AMGN....see its slightly- depressed saucer base around 45, late 1997/early 1998 ? I really did give out some "biotech/drug stocks" back then, including, BGEN, CHIR, LIPO, AMGN, IMG, IVX, in writing, check them out....they all rose nicely S.T., as expected....but, recently, AMGN rose to 79 or so, then held around 60, at its 200 DMA recently, yes ? But, it is certainly NOT "cheap," nor "special" here at 73....Let's see what happens....will it form a double-top ahead ? Will such a comment from a reporter be "too late", or eventually wrong, as usual ? stay tuned....

d) another "PSYCLE sm" individual stock Buy signal: two girls I know were very recently lamenting their being laid-off at Adaptec, with negative ariticles on ADPT in newspapers, and, when I mentioned that those items, plus its chart pattern , meant ADPT was a recent Buy, again, at $ 10 3/8, in its saucer depressed base, they, of course, looked at me like I was crazy (no comments from the peanut gallery)....How could any stock rise, when they were laying people off, and lower fundamentals, they asked ? and, yet, here, we see ADPT up already, yes ? Oh, and remember when I chronicled "REXI." in a recent past NL, here, showing how all the analysts were wrong again, near REXI.'s "PSYCLE sm" top, etc. ? Well, the very day that that WSJ super-negative article came out, did indeed turn out to have been the S.T. bottom, and REXI. rose up from 8+ to 13+ already....get it ?

e) More "company/stock" announcements/articles from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v.: 1) Thu. 17th late, Merrill lowers earnings estimates on CLX....only AFTER the stock which I gave you herein as a Puttable at 105+, had fallen S.T. to 81.... thanks for nothing....2) NKE announced lower earnings....but their stock pops up, puzzling the CNBC reporter, as usual....3) Fri. 9/18, Venator (Z) ann. plans to close many stores, yet we buy at 9+ here, and stock popped already....4) L.A. Times, 9/17: shows analysts cutting earnings estimates for "IMP" (nyse) a bank stock I gave as a great "PSYCLE sm" Put earlier 1998 in my NL (view its chart for the pattern), only NOW, at $ 13+, down from $ 31+, dig ?.... 5) Sun. 9/20, L.A. Times big negative article, on St. John's Knits, saying "earnings warnings, problems, missing the mark", Now, only After SJK, at 17., is already way down from 55. last year, when the same newspaper and all the analysts were lauding SJK as such a great "growth stock", dig ? HOW COME THEY ALMOST NEVER SEE IT COMING, nor ever suggest Puts ?

f) long, WSJ, 9/16, front page, Markets & Investments section, article, "Markets Don't Rattle Texas Dellionaires" (where DELL is located, right ?): Interviewed many holders of DELL stock, as just plain "not worried" (in their "PSYCLE sm" denial and rationalization, right ? please re-read my booklet on PSY-chology), that DELL stock may correct/fall, in potential stage 4 behavior. Some quotes: "my husband says you haven't lost anything till you sell", and, "you lose $ 200 K to $ 300 K on Fri. and Mon., but you're in it for the long haul ("as he waits for a golf tee time")"....and, "if the DJIA were to take a deeper and longer dip, he might consider cutting back on his life spending plans". Think about that comment; he has no stop nor hedge nor timing on his huge DELL position here, and seems to welcome the possibility of losing money in it, and also, he would Only seem to consider acting, only AFTER/when/if it falls....Plus, what does what the DJIA does, have to do with what DELL stock does ? ....another comment, "why worry about money in pension plans you can't touch for 20 years".....wow.

Also, another guy with way too much of his $ in DELL, undiversified, has no protection, yet he follows its every move, daily-- why ? He's never going to sell it, dig ? He's wasting his time, and learning nothing about cycles....he goes on to say, "the changes in the market don't really affect my day-to-day mentality". But, they DO, since he said he follows DELL, and the DJIA, every day, right ? He is in "denial"....That's right, if you fear something, and/or don't want to deal with it, just put "defensive stuff" into your brain so you are seemingly "covered" psychologically....Yet another guy said, "we (DELL holders) are pretty insulated" from the market's dramatic drops....wow....famous last words ? These are all beautiful "PSYCLE sm" signals....Again, the "PSYCLE sm" pattern NEVER changes ! The SAME comments are almost ALWAYS made, near most every TOP, in every hugely successful stock/company....LEARN THEM....This article seemed a bit like Nero fiddling while Rome burns, but I digress....I can go on, but hopefully, you get the picture....Hey, I hope all these people never lose any money in DELL from $ 60+....But, as with every sucessful Tech. stock which later falls big, there have been VERY few exceptions to the "PSYCLE sm" historically....Maybe I should have put a "be careful" ad into the newspapers where DELL is located....

Last, the article did eventually allude to similarities/differences to similar comments made before Texas' Oil ind. drops in the early 1980's (ask me sometime to tell you how I got death threats in 1980, publically predicting Crude Oil itself would drop from $ 40. to $ 10., and, as a good stockbroker, I called execs from Oil Service co's. in So. Calif., recommending Puts as at least protection for them, on stocks which then fell 60-80 %....a longer, interesting, true story, of my "PSYCLE sm", for a later time)

g) CNBC, Fri. 18th, 8:30 am, pst: Bob Pisani. (again) said "Wall Street may be expecting Negative Earnings Growth ahead...." Huh ? What the heck does THAT mean ? As I teach at length in my Media, and Scenarios booklets, "wall-street-media- speak" abounds, to the detriment of the unenlightened, yes ? Too often saying items/terms that mean nothing, help no one, and/or are ambiguous or useless anyway, right ? "negative growth" ? amazing....

h) Fri. 9/18, the U.S. Commerce Dept., announces, that "nationwide housing starts" were DOWN, for the first time, -5.5 % in Aug., the biggest/first drop since 12/96, and that the July figures, which HAD shown an increase, were revised DOWNward, "even given all-time low Mtg. rates"....SEE IT ? I was/again, the first/only guy, to have called a "PSYCLE sm" top, in many R.E. areas, here, and elsewhere, in late July....Also, L.A. Times, 9/19, biz. sec., article, "Torrid Pace of Housing Starts to Cool Off in August": said, "housing activity has probably peaked"....And, my talking to honest, open, non-emotional R.E. people out here, and homeowners, showed many people pulling their "for sale" houses off the cooled-off market....and, Mon. 21st, CNBC at 8:40 am, pst, reported (quote) "Commercial R.E. property prices falling for the first time in 6 years, even as rents rise...."

Gosh, I love sharing such timing signals....Of course, the "media" will "blame" the initial drops in R.E., on "the sudden/recent decline in stocks", dig ? But, they will NEVER call a top or a bottom for us....I just wish I was on CNBC often, so millions of people could hear occasional signals like this....oh, and, again, as I said before, please realize, all tops may still take a little while to form, and may entail slight new highs in varying regions, before falling, even in R.E., and, of course, most people don't/can't "trade" R.E., which I do understand ....I am just trying to show you how we are able to foresee likely future price moves in all things, way more often than not, and way more than others in this country, by using similar, staged "media, and human behavior messages" and chart patterns....

i) WSJ, 9/16: article, "Day Runner may be scheduled for a rebound after a big drop": another example of misleading "Perspective" (re-read my "Scenarios/ Perspective" booklet)....first, DAYR has NOT had a "big drop", it has "only" fallen from 25 to 17, a relatively "small" drop, compared to a thousand other stocks recently, yes ? second, it was "only" 17., also last year, so it never really rose a bunch, earlier, either....third, this is another example of a non-helpful Media choice, just trying to make a "pun", and/or editorializing a company because that reporter was probably contacted by that company, dig ? And, even when/if DAYR rises again, it's % rise still will likely pale in comparison to thousands of other stocks which will outperform DAYR from here....That reporter certainly should have chosen a different stock to highlight....One that would be a better, more helpful, illustrative, rewarding stock for readers....a M. Fund mgr./holder said, "we liked DAYR at 21., and we like it even more at 17., oy.... Interestingly, he said their "foreign sales more than doubled last lear", yet, the stock is unchanged from last year, and Down, from 25. and 21., right ? So, even good, correct fundamentals did not help DAYR "stock", right ? He also alluded to "aberrational (fundamental) items", as an excuse for his being incorrect, when, if he had just viewed its chart, he would not have chosen DAYR at 25., nor 21., right ? Last, a "PSYCLE sm" LESSON: M.F. mgrs. alway rationalize their holdings, as do "the 95 %", always finding some "positive reasons" (read my booklet on "reasons") to stay in stocks, which do not look that good, technically, because they either have a vested interest (which may or may not be in the best interest of their clients, but i digress), or, know nothing of proper timing decisions....Last, his 12- to 18-month max. "target" is "only" 27. anyway, up from his 21. purchase, not that special even if he is correct....We shall see....

i) CNBC, interviewed a M. Fund mgr., 9/18, 9:50 am, pst, who said he spoke with the chairman of WWW (a stock I recently gave you, along with others, as EVB's among "depr. Shoe" ind. stocks), who said, as a reasoin why he had bought it higher, "everybody's got to wear shoes"....What the heck does THAT help ? While that useless statement IS somewhat true, that comment was also true, BEFORE Wolverine, and other Shoe Ind. stocks, FELL 50-75 %, right ? That kind of useless comment is of NO "D.U.F.P.P. value"....BTW, this same M.F. mgr., said "on a fundamental basis", "I do not like GNCI. here at $ 11+" (down from $ 41. not too long ago) Gee, I wonder if he liked it up there, because "the fundamentals were so good" at $ 41. You know I am watching GNCI. down here, but is not yet ready.

j) another, sharper M. Fund guy on CNBC 9/18, mentioned, as I agree, that some of the depr. "Gaming" stocks may be shaping up, ahead, like, HOT, CIR, MIR, Sun Intl., AZR, HLT, etc. While it is likely still too soon for these by my "PSYCLE sm" (i.e., EVB's/bases not formed yet), I am beginning to cast an eye on them.... I will let you know when....

k) WSJ, 9/17, article, "Latin Funds are Definitely Not for Everyone": duh.... Actually, NOTHING is for "everyone" ever, right ? But, seriously, these kinds of front-page articles generally appear near the ENDS of declines, NOT at the beginnings, yes ? Obviously, it showed many Latin Amer. MF's down 30-45 % in 1998 so far....Gosh, I can still recall when Wall St. and the Finl. Media were all over these funds, touting them as nifty, a while ago, remember ? Intl. Funds had out- performed other sectors, for a while, until their tops, right ? BUT "the 95 %" were Never given even the slightest inkling of impending potential stage 4 TOPS, were they ? They never get such signals by Wall St. Media....Hey, as always, they love 'em late, and hate 'em late, dig ? In stage 7, often one reads comments like, (quote) "MF's like this are only appropriate for investors with a L.T. horizon-- and a stomach for dizzying market gyrations along the way." Well, that only applies to investors who have held all the way down, and/or without stops, and/or emotional people, yes ? Smarter people, who are beginning to see the light, down here, in some depr. Mexico./Asian/Latin issues, will likely NOT have to stomach Any "dizzying gyrations", as those have ALREADY occured, see ? That's why one has to learn for one's self, the "PSYCLE sm" stages....And, of course, as I intimated herein, the Mexico and Hong kong Indexes are no longer going making new lows....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
(always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's) and (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period....VQ = very quick; i.e., less than 3-4 weeks holding period) also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets), and also try to view their 1-year-past price charts, to see the patterns, and where/when they were Hypothetically, originally "bought", all longs near lows, all puts near highs).