Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
issue # 32, dated: 10:00 am, PST, Thursday, Sept. 24, 1998

(Save all my Cumulative letters, for future reference/educational help)....these each tend to run about 10-11 pages in length, printed out....so much valuable info., please read my Entire letters. Of course, if you choose, say, not to "do" Puts, or Options, ever (Not the best approach, mind you, as you have seen), or if you are not "already long" those stock/puts positions/ideas listed, you may feel like ignoring some parts of the sections below--- but it is much better if you take the time to check ALL ideas shared herein....you can always also refer back to "the Guide" (green) booklet, for more info./details....The process will become second nature to you quickly: buying longs, and buying puts, with close stops, etc.

It is assumed you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under the logo on my main webpage...I wish I could infer future performance will match past, but each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding.

FIRST, from Section (3) --- and also, from in sections (6) and (7) when those set up properly, always cutting losses when stocks break their patterns, etc. Then, read Section (2) for "How (not) to use Commentary from a Psycle p.o.v.". ...Plus, after reading a few NL's, you will already be aware of most stocks from the recent past, and, therefore, have the choice of not/watching them again, if you are not/are looking to trade those stocks, right ? This whole process should be labor of enjoyable fulfillment and learning, and not a chore, dig ? I just give you a lot more for your money, whether you use it or not....Again, If you are already knowledgeable about "PSYCLE sm" tenets, and/or just want the most current "actionable" stocks, FIRST, go right to Section (3)....then, to see longer lists, and potential ideas, go to sections (6) and (7)....of course, if you want to get the most, for the least, read everything....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
My newsletter (NL), and Educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas, to show you many Recently/Past suggested ideas, which I shared with my L.T. followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, to further help you learn the Patterns....All my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "commentaries" areas, to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's....and, all my "booklets/essays".

*** To quickly Review: after giving almost 100 correctly timed "Puts" near their July Tops herein for you, on 8/31 and 9/1, we got a normal, late stage 7 /early stage 1, "baby/bathwater" S.T. bottom action, etc., representing reaching many downside targets, and also signalling one must have bought "something" Long then/since....Well, have you Bought some Psycle bottoms, long ? I cannot remember when the ratio of "PSYCLE sm" EVB's to Puttables was as high as it has been lately ....Remember, we are NOT ever trying to predict "Indexes" themselves, just taking advantage of normal, usual, "PSYCLE sm" patterns in Individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, right ? with NO emotion, and NO "scenarios/stories/linkages" (re-read that Booklet). And, if you were again "afraid" to buy some things Long very recently, with close stops, please re-read my "Mastering Psychology" booklet as well....

* also LEARN THIS: Most recently, while we ARE catching plenty of EVB's Long here for you, and though we may "miss" some "EVB's" here, know, that often, in market mini-crashes, the specialists on the floor must "take out the lows", to "shake out" the last "scared holders", by breaking many EVB stocks, even below recent lows, and getting even good traders negative/scared at those times, dig ? As a result, a) we will often get S.T. price rises into a "vacuum" for a few days on many (already occuring, yes ?), b) then some normal backing-and-filling, and, c) often, it is better, in the bigger "Perspective" (read my Booklet on that, with "Scenarios") to "hang in there" and/or Buy EVB's Long, rather than capitulate, emotionally, at times like 9/1 lows. In any case, I still prefer to see much higher volume traded, in our potential EVB stocks, before I will buy some, and, then, still, only near recent lows....so, we may miss some, but we will still catch plenty, Long, at these kinds of times....

**** Most of the very recent bounces off lows are VERY normal....as I have suggested, current long-side patterns are/were similar to those after the 1987 crash, but on a smaller scale, so far....With "the 95 %" remaining negative, scared, confused, or forgetting or refusing to acknowledge the damage done recently, etc., WE are strong enough to buy some EVB's, with close stops, here.... NOTE how many new "EVB's" have been Added after recent drops, in Section (3) and (6) below....you should know by now, what it means overall, when the PUTS list shrinks, and the EVB-Longs list increases, S.T., yes ?

***** Not only was I, again, also the first/only to catch the "Railroads" (and, maybe, the "Steels" here ?), plus the Oil Svcs., and Foreigns, right near recent lows, also Note the other secondaries/tertiaries among depresseds we were the first/ only to give out near recent lows, bouncing nicely here, outperforming the "extendeds", all-of-a-sudden, in our still-"split" market as expected, yes ? Mon. 21, Tue. 22, Wed. 23rd, were the best "positive divergence" days I have seen in months, again, just like after the 1987 crash, but on a smaller scale....be sure to read Section (4) and (6) below....Even better, a gal on CNBC, Wed. 23rd, 9:15 am, said, all the analysts she spoke with about this "PSYCLE shift to depresseds, from extendeds", said, "this is just a dead-cat-bounce, and is not sustainable"....beautiful to hear, yes ? By the time all those normally wrong-wayers come around (late, as usual, right ?), WE will likely have many large % Gains in our depresseds, right ?

Cool....first, I give you tons of Puts near highs, now, tons of Longs near lows...."But, Jim, the Media has kept saying the world is going to come to an end, because of Latin Amer., Russia, Asia, etc." Yeah, right....Have you learned how to do this (buy Long into "bad stuff", and buy Puts, into too much optimism) yet ? Thu. 24th, note: again, a bunch of long gainers are nearing their V.S.T. resistance here, and more "extended" stocks are acting like other "token breakouts of toppy patterns as "fake-out breakouts" ? Will be watching for that....That's what happened before the March/April and July declines in those kinds of issues. Also, "PSY-chologically/Sentiment-wise, I personally as feeling a bit too striong, V.S.T. only, meaning, some long-side pullbacks are likely....See ? I know MY internal "PSYCLE sm"....do you ?

"PSYCLE sm" PSY-chological tip: instead of becoming emotional/upset that you occasionally, might have "missed" some issues, at times, and/or illogically fearful near recent lows, VIEW the chart patterns, to LEARN, so the next several times, you will NOT miss similarly positioned stocks, yes ?

Important: Remember, I am pretty Comprehensive, herein....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....most other NL's leave you hanging....Know, that there are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed herein: a) Stocks that can be taken advantage of, here and now, if right near given prices, b) Stocks which, if they get back to the price where they were when originally suggested, remain/ become tradeable again, and, c) Stocks which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and might also illustrate Industry Groups potentially shaping up, and/or as Educational ideas, all for YOUR benefit....Try to "view" the past 1-year-back-at-least charts of all ideas, for best learning of patterns.... all ideas are followed up till "sold" or "removed", for your benefit. Do try to find charts which also have 200 DMA 's on them, physically, or through your computer, or on the web. Call me if you need some places to get free charts.... Learn the chart patterns, then add our "sentiment/psychological" patterns, and voila....So, we had mostly many Puts in March/April, many more Puts in July and August, and, now, Long some EVB's. With Q, large % Gains in some depresseds, with some small losses in long-siders, of lesser consequence, along the way.


Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....which will tell you something about "the market" overall, yes ? Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3) each NL. I am putting more "learning/feeling' items in NL's when pertinent/helpful to YOU.

Remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those stocks remain aok....many EVB's may form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6) below....do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate any "recent past" performance forward forever, PSY-chologically", because you will likely miss the next bunch of Gainers.

So, "pick your potion(s)," FIRST, from Section (3) ---then from sections (6) and (7), long and/or Put/short side, for cash, or on margin, or only L.T., in-the- money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you have never done "Puts", the March to Sept. period has been the time to Learn how to do so, using my "booklet" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. tops occur, which may next exist after the rallies after this past decline....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

*** INITIAL NOTES: Once again, we still have a "Split" market, with some extended/names/high-priced/overpriced stocks topping/falling, while many depresseds are forming EVB's or bases, and actually popping....So, am awaiting better tops in extendeds to buy Puts into, while awaiting further breakouts, and/or pullbacks to buy long after, in many depresseds....but we are NOT emoting about it....we are just going to let "the action itself" tell us, which way to go, right ? Interesting, Crude and heating Oil futures, have still been rising as predicted, yet most Energy "stocks" have been pulling back, yes ? And, note pops in Steels, I am first/only to give out/catch for you herein, WHILE they Lose more $ on their products, dig ? Again, there is NO "automatic/clear link" between "fundamentals" and "technicals", between "corporate stuff" and "stocks" movements, all the time, right ? ....re-read my booklet on "scenarios/linkages".

a) Important Industry Group comments: Note the decent bounces occuring in our/the "depressed cheapies" (secondary and tertiary stocks) which "the 95 %" and the "stuffy Wall Streeters" are missing, as usual....I was, again, among the very few to first foresee this "shift" and "split" in the market, whereby, the extended "names" correct, while the "depressed/falling for 1-2-years" issues, bottom and pop....recently, many "Semis/Comp./Chips/Techs" have EVB's....also, see renewed styrength in Oil Services, if those issues hold above recent lows, their "W" formations would have "higher-right-sides", which, if they follow-through, would mean, off to the races. Last, again note potential "PSYCLE sm" bottoms bought, in the depressed Steels....

b) One of the few "indicators" (which Alan Chernov (again) CNBC, Wed, 23rd, 8:35, said, is "not yet significant" --- by the time he "sees" what my "PSYCLE sm" sees, it will, of course, be too late for "the 95 %", dig ?) which I do put some credence into, is Investors Intelligence's "% of stocks above their 10-week and 30-week Moving Averages" figures....What I have been watching for, may be occuring ? As of Mon. 21st, I see the chart pattern of the "over 10- week MA" indicator, inching up from a depressed/oversold base level (sound familiar ?), and hopefully, the "over 30 -week MA" figure will do the same, ahead....when/if so, that would be real bullish for the broader market, i.e., "our" stocks, dig ? we shall see.

c) WSJ, 9/23: article on Homebuilders, fundamentally, said, "amid the frenzy, the nation's largest homebuilders are thriving" (RYL, KBH, PHM, CTX, TOL, SPF, etc.).... O.K., but they did NOT mention, how their "stock" prices have FALLEN, or at least have not risen, especially in recent months, INTO/during such "fundamental frenzy", dig ? More and more proof, of technicals beating fundamentals as future-price-preditive-factors....but, you already know that.

and, again recently, another, of many-more-than-the-Media-or-the-Finl. Svcs. Industry-incorrectly-suggests, period, where "stocks" rose, while "bonds" fell. WSJ, 9/23, gave supposed "reason" (read my booklet on Scenarios/Linkages/Reasons") as,"stability in Equities market" "reducing demand for Traesury Issues as a Haven" ....Huh ? come again ? The WSJ would call recent market action as "stable" ? Amazing, misleqding, bordering on incorrect assessment, yes ? The "reason" the TBond fell very recently, was because its "PSYCLE sm" stage 4, S.T. chart and sentiment pattern said so, as I told you when I suggested Puts on the U.S. Dollar, herein, at 102.5 (then to sell them at 96.) remember ? If one listens to every emotional media report, one would go crazy....wildly bullish suggestions one day, wildly bearish the next, etc. but, you already know this, yes ? 'nuff said.

d) another "PSYCLE sm" individual stock Buy signal: WSJ, 9/20: "America West Loses Altitude": another in a long line of "cute headlines" occuring AFTER the fact, yes ? Please view 1-year-past chart of AWA, and note the "PSYCLE sm" S.T. rolling top, April to July, into which I gave out Puts herein, from around 30., and the normal big fall to the 14. area, for Huge % Puts Gain....But only Now, AFTER the big fall only I predicted, Now, they "begin to" tell people negative things about AWA, dig ? Anyway, as you know, I recently added AWA as a potential EVB around 14., INTO such action, and article....Again, forget the "fundamentals", because at 30. these same analysts were lauding AWA, right ? And those overpaid people did not even warn their stockholders at 30., right ? They reported AWA's rise to 30. as a "comeback"....Gee, while they get "stage 6 or 7 negative", WE see bounce possibilities....The pattern NEVER changes ! (how many times have I proven THAT ?)

e) More "company/stock" announcements/articles from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v.: 1) "news" on OXHP finally, Tues. 22nd, only AFTER it had already risen, from MY buy, given you here around $ 6+, recently, yes ? Perfect "PSYCLE sm' late stage 2 action, yes ? I am especially proud of being right for you ion this one, a company which ALL of Wall St. abandoned, hated, and said would all but disappear --- at $ 6., yes ? Well, today, Salomon SB "upgraded" it--- at over $ 12. .... hmmmm, where were they at $ 6. ? .... 2) WSJ, 9/23, "Crown Cork Warns on Earnings, Cuts Staff": again, only AFTER it had ALREADY declined from 58. to 32., this is reported....again, HOW COME almost no one EVER SEES IT COMING, nor ever suggests Puts to the public ?

f) Newspaper, 9/21: article, "Consumer Confidence takes Another Hit": in another example of a "supposed fundamental indicator" being of little or NO, "D.U.F.P.P.V" , they showed "U. Mich. consumer sentiment index" continuing to fall, in a chart. They then, as usual, try to "link" this, to "stocks prices", etc....BUT-- this indicator HAS BEEN falling, for months, since Jan. 1998, even as the biggest companies' stocks rose a bunch, right ? So, as I said in my booklets on Media, and Scenarios/Linkages, why waste print on this non-helpful indicator ? IGNORE IT.

g) and another useless "non-direct" indicator/link: I am hearing many people say stuff about "them", or "the Fed" lowering interest rates, to "help" the economy, stocks, etc. Amazing....Folks, FACT: 60 % of ALL stocks, have BEEN falling, and/or are lower than they were 1- or 2- years ago, WITH/WHILE "interest rates" have been CONTINUALLY falling already, yes ? So, again, where is the "suppoosed link" ? It does NOT EXIST, to anywhere near the incorrectly-assumed extent that the Media, Wall St., or "the 95 %" (mis)believe....Plus, "if" such "direct, guaranteed always" links exist as "the masses" (mis)believe, then how come REIT stocks are down (and, more recently, Housing co. stock, themselves, read above), WITH lower IR's ? and, now, Commercial and residential housing prices to follow ? and, last, how come earnings estimates for many corporations are being cut (late, as always, right ?), WITH/during lower IR's ? Conclusion: there are many other factors, besides just "IR"s", and/or "consumer confidence", which lead to investment price moves (those factors being, technical and behavioral patterns) ....anyway, how come they only report such fundamental items, AFTER the bottoms/ tops ? Last, even "if" one "links" lower IR's, with "supposed higher stock prices", by the time IR's are announced as being lowered, stocks will ALREADY be up, right ? So, again, please STOP thinking/linking that way ! Do things "the PSYCLE sm" way, acting BEFORE likely moves, w/close stops, yes ?

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
 (always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's) and (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period....VQ = very quick; i.e., less than 3-4 weeks holding period) also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets), and also try to view their 1-year-past price charts, to see the patterns, and where/when they were Hypothetically, originally "bought", all longs near lows, all puts near highs).

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (price changes from where/when originally recommended shown):
 stock on margin OXHP (6+ to 12+) for Q 180% Gain....calls HUM (13+ to 18+) for VQ 150% Gain....calls RN (22+ to 28-) for VQ 200% Gain.... puts TXCC (18+ to 14-) for Q 75% Gain....puts FRX (41 to 33) for VQ 90% Gain.... puts ETW (44- to 41-) for Q 55% Gain....puts, FON, CPWR, XOMD, JDEC, HOU, DRTE, WAT, DELL, and, longs, NOV, DCN, CTI., DBD, OLS, for VQ, very small losses....

so, I gave you over 90+ (wow) Quick, Large % Puts Gains, specifically, from July tops, here (with just a few VQ, VS puts losses just recently), plus a whole bunch more puttables, which "we" just missed herein, but "you" could still have caught, big-time, from July tops, into the 9/1, V.S.T. lows....I hope you had at least "some" of my successful Puts recently. Please View their charts to learn the patterns. You have had plenty of opportunity to catch tons of them right near prices suggested herein, many, over a period of days or weeks....Obviously, also had some Q,S losses in Long-siders here, and, now, a bunch of Long-side risers given you, again....back and forth, right ? A proper portfolio should have had a few Q, small cut losses long-side, AND also at least a few big % Gains in some Puts, lately....And, new Long buys again last week....See section (5) below for more details on recent-past Puts, from which to learn.... And, many depressed longs which broke their support a little recently, may well bounce back up towards where they broke down below, anyway, S.T., allowing another opportunity to get out of those, to cut losses, as taught in my Booklets.

note: As I said herein, some of our "depressed longs" might continue to have the "rally back up to where they broke down from", and/or form double-bottom "W" formations ahead, vs. recently formed EVB's, which, when/if they occur, I will let you know, as usual....but, as always, (further) breakdowns below most recent lows/ support, are not argued with. Again, you can always also go back and view the 1-year-past charts, of the many previously "Hypothetically completed" successful PUTS trades from previous NL's, to "see/learn" more, and this also illustrates why one must Diversify, buying at least a Few suggested ideas, and at least "some" Puts, at amost All times, right ? We are in this for the long haul....my approach keeps you in the game, for when those big Gainers occur for us....we want to "just get close(r)", with no emotion, and more confidence.

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right near these prices only:
(either for cash, especially in pensions, and/or on margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/ available, always diversifying, always with close stops below/above recent lows/highs): (note: If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables", long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price.... and, a " + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-, means, 55 5/8 to 56, dig ?)....again, the idea is to just get "real close" to my listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....


**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential rises: (note, more/new names here):
AMSWA @ 2 21/32, SAMC @ 5 29/32, AXNT @ 15-, SIII. @ 2 15/16, AWA @ 14, MCY @ 38-, IQSW @ 7 1/2, AMLN @ 2 13/16, SSC @ 11/16, TOC @ 7 9/16, SYBS @ 5 5/8, FINL @ 9, CDI. @ 23+, NN @ 19++, ALN @ 7.06, CCH @ 9/32, AND @ 5 5/8, MRVC @ 6-, BDG @ 30+, STN @ 5+, IMC @ 17+, ADM @ 15+, WCS @ 16-, UTI. @ 8, SYBS @ 5 5/8, VSNR @ 3/4, CREAF @ 8 15/16, ISSI. @ 2 7/8, BW @ 14 1/2, MCN @ 17+, ODETA @ 5 1/2, CZN @ 7 3/8, SPCT @ 13-, RDC @ 11 3/4, RAYS @ 5 5/8, BIR @ 6 11/16, NS @ 6 7/16, AND @ 5 5/8, SFO @ 5 15/16, TDW @ 22+, WHR @ 46-, PZN @ 20-, BEN @ 27-, PZL @ 36+, KMT @ 26+, ROP @ 16++, SMI. @ 34-, EMN @ 49+, PAP @ 5 5/16, TOC @ 7 9/16, LTV @ 5 5/8, OS @ 10-, PHV @ 7/8, BT @ 60+, TPS @ 13/16, VGZ @ 1/8....most are EVB's, but added more "higher-priceds" as well, dig ? note, still more Long buys here.... there is still something for everyone here...."buy low", right ? Note, we are revisiting some "previously given/traded" issues....and/but some New ones.

LEARN THIS: when, in the past, I had been seeing fewer "quality" higher-priced stocks as depressed buy patterns, that should have told you something about "the market", back in June....but we have been adding more longs, After the recent mini-crash, dig ? This just makes sense....Please try NOT to read, nor "emote", about news stories about worldwide financial/economic/ political events....

** Important: took, PAGE, UFI., PAR, USF, BDT --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows....also recall the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, and some $ 5-10. stocks, and some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.

Important: unless issues are listed specifically above, here in Section (3) in a NL, they may NOT be buys right here....remember, a valuable part of the "process", is that we have "actionable right near here now" stocks (Section (3)), and also, "watching for hopefully becoming ready to buy near lows in their depressed patterns soon" stocks (section (6))....Section (3) is for Now -- Section (6) and (7) are for soon/later and learning....be sure to read the "Guide", the "BDG/EVB essay" and the "Downside" booklet (and all 6 booklets) offered....very inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for learning timing/patterns....I try to make this easy for you. But, always start, with Section (3), here, first.

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS", for potential Drops:
MEDI. @ 67, ANF @ 51, BBY @ 51, GLX @ 62-, UMG @ 48, JNJ @ 79+, NSIT @ 35+, WPI. @ 49+ .... again, at this stage, we only buy Puts on extended potentially toppy issues which have Not Yet fallen, only near their highs, right ? br>
as with the Long side, some are new Puttables, some are repeats....obviously, given recent declines, its a bit "late" to "begin buying most puts blindly here", therefore fewer Puttables, right ? And/but, took, MCK, RESM, PAYX, SEIC, SGP, SUNW, YHOO, off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested stock will break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed double-bottom/EVB/base pattern....So I am assuming, you actually have Viewed it's recent chart, BEFORE you consider buying any/those issues as Longs or Puts, and you will see/know this, and therefore NOT buy that particular stock....this takes just 10 seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns.

....and/but, we just Missed, LFB, LIPO, SEEC, CMT, KLIC, BLUD, EXBT, WWW, UST, CLCX, ABTX, JOB, TVX, GLW, ALT, BTC, HMY, LSS, FLC, CCMC, BMC, TZA, ADI., LEH, AAM, TNL, DLJ, ICA, IV, LH, as Longs given you here near very recent "EVB" lows, and, WHIT, as Puts near recent highs, among stocks recently given you herein (also view last lists given you here).
Important: while I have given you a ton of successful Puts, note how many more big-name, higher-priced stocks have formed double-tops-with-lower-second-tops, not even giving us the chance to get into their puts....as I have been saying here, this was NOT a good sign for "the market", from March, and from July, dig ? I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" and LEARN the patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing the charts of the puts/longs here which we just "missed", also tells us, whether the market is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? So this also helps us know the nature of the market at any given time....that's why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for the future.

As I said, it may still continue semi-rough for a while yet, in some long-side issues....Again, while the Media "worries" about "earnings" impacts of various crises, the STOCKS of the companies involved will likely Bottom, and rise, even as "lower financials" are announced, into fear, once they bottom, right ? And, as we have already seen, twice, since March, stocks of "growing fast" companies, will still FALL, at times, when they form "PSYCLE sm" tops, even as higher "earnings" are announced....So, we'll also be watching for this ahead. And, a few, small, cut losses along the way, will not hurt us much, regardless. By buying "some "PSYCLE sm" long-side stocks" down here, with close stops, we should make some money regardless, soon, again, yes ?


 All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check them briefly, to see if any YOU own, are listed....if you do not own any of them, then just concentrate on Sections (3), then (6) and (7) below.

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, mentioning, and still remaining long, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy here, up already, acting O.K., so stick around:
wow....tons of Gainers given you: ISSI. 4 1/4 up 1 1/2, MRVC 8 1/4 up 2 3/8, VSNR 1 up 1/4, EGGS 9 1/8 up 2 7/8, IQSW 9 3/4 up 2 1/2, AMLN 3 3/8 up 13/16, ODETA 7 up 1 1/2, HNP 11 5/8 up 2 3/4, VNT 15 1/8 up 3, AXNT 18 3/4 up 4 1/8, CUBE 18 up 3, HUM 20 up 3 1/2 (S), FJ 33 up 5 1/2, VOX 6 1/8 up 1 1/8, ANET 7 1/8 up 1 1/2, NN 23- up 3 1/2, TAM 8 3/4 up 1 1/2, GALTF 11 3/4 up 2, DGN 11 3/4 up 1 1/4, LTV 6 1/4 up 3/4, BSRTS 6 1/2 up 3/4, SYBS 6 3/8 up 3/4, SPCT 15 up 2 1/4, RN 29 up 4 5/8 (S), ADM 17 1/8 up 1 7/8, UTI. 9 3/8 up 1 1/2, BIR 7 1/2 up 7/8, BS 9- up 7/8, FINL 9 3/4 up 7/8, BW 16- up 1 3/8, PZN 21 5/8 up 1 7/8, OXHP 12 3/4 up 1 (S), GCO 6 1/2 up 1/2, ATML 9 3/4 up 1, NVX 11 3/4 up 1 3/4, OS 11 3/8 up 1 1/2, UNP 47 3/4 up 4 (sos), TOC 8 1/8 up 5/8, RDC 12 1/2 up 1, LSI. 14 1/8 up 1, WCS 17 3/8 up 1 5/8, CSX 42 1/2 up 3 1/4, BT 65+ up 5, IMC 18+ up 1, PLL 22 5/8 up 1 3/4, MCL 11 5/8 up 7/8, BEN 30+ up 3 5/8, LZ 27 up 2 3/4, ALN 7 5/8 up 5/8, X. 23 5/8 up 2 1/4, VTR 12 3/8 up 1, PZL 37 1/2 up 1 3/4, SMI. 36+ up 2 5/8, WY 43 1/2 up 2, WHR 48 5/8 up 2 7/8, MCY 39+ up 1, EMN 52 5/8 up 3 3/8, CREAF 9 1/2, ADPT 11 3/4, ASHW 6 5/8, PAP 5 3/4, MCN 18 3/8, ROC 6 3/8, LDW 10 3/8, IIF 6 3/4, CIV 23-, NSC 31 3/8, OEA 10 3/4, SFO 6 3/8, SOL 18+, VAR 37, TIG 14 1/4, AND 6, up/further, just since last time here....remember, I follow-up every idea suggested, for Your benefit and learning....

also, see, ORX 15 1/2 up 2 3/8, NEM 22 3/4, higher anew....Given recent action, that my concept has still given out/caught many stocks which are UP into this not-so-great period, recently, is satisfying....I certainly hope you always properly Cut quick small losers properly ....remember, after mini-crashes, often, the first reflex-dead-cat bounces do not necessarily hold, but many DO, and many form "W" bottoms, so we ACT to take advantage, regardless.

and/but, then, "Finls.", and, IDTI. 5 1/4 up 1, VIAS, CDI., SPCT, AFCI., ATML, BNYN, IOM, MRVC, COT, OEA, AHG, ATW, PDE, VRC, HUM, WY, IKN, TWA, NN, Z., pb (pulling back).... again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed stocks", even in qualified plans/pensions accounts, with stops, diversified.... Again, you must buy at least FEW, always diversifying, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers.. Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" That is Impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 or 12, long-siders, and also 5 or 12, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of instant/S.T. gratification.

*** important: obviously, the whole key from here, long-side, is for many of our EVB's, to breakout, further, again, above this week's S.T. "highs" ! and, many stocks are approaching their "previously-broken-down-from price levels, here, right ? So, many "must stregthen further" or become "sales on strength" (sos), we'll be watching for that.

note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a bounce up towards where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)

* and/but, these already assumed Longs, must strengthen,
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards resistance:
Oil Svcs., LIPO 5 3/8, ROC 6 1/2, PKD 5 5/8, AMSWA, PLL, BWC, DANKY, SAMC, BNYN, OAKT, THDO, FTPS, CADA, WKGP, FINL, DGN, TAM, NETM, TWA, UNP, AXC, DEN, KF....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy puts on these now, but acting properly, stick around:
 Puttables specifically given you herein, which Are Falling/further: ANF -4 3/4, SEIC -2 3/8, MEDI. -2 1/2, ANF -2 1/4, BBY -1 5/8, VRTS -1 1/4, MTC -1 1/4, CTAS -1, ETW (S), down/further, since last time here.

(Important Note: "(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support"....("S") means sell/sold the long Puts right near here, or as in section (3) above)....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" puts as trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.... you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables which are declining, past and present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices.

also, view charts of, CLX, XYLN, APOL, CBTSY, VTSS, SZA, DASTY, JAII., USTR, OSSI., BRK.B, AMCC, MEG.A, POS, CKR, TEF, SPLN, TRB, LXK, BNI., ICN, AWA, SHW, BCF, HOT, MTX, IMP, KRI., EL, plus the long, long recent past list of dozens of Puttable stocks I gave you in Section (5) here near their tops, which fell even further, recently, as originally predicted here for you....please see their charts to learn the "toppy" patterns further....

I had given you a ton of Puts winners, from March, and July, so far, yes ? remember, stocks often fall in 2 or 3 stages, even S.T., at least towards their 200 DMA....that's another reason why we ONLY buy L.T., in-the-money options, always diversified, where suitable....some people say it has been quite Valuable, that my "PSYCLE sm" has found so many winning puts, in this supposed "bull" market (which, as I said, may have ended in March/April ?), which I do appreciate....hey, most other NL's and analysts and people never ever buy Puts at all !!! Yet too many people continue to listen to, and/or buy their output, when they could have ours.


* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): NSIT -1, GLX -1, FRX (S), BBY, MTC, VRTS, HHS, FPC, SDG, CTL, JNJ, RX....

Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn from.

6) Other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
Please be patient here, and, again, do not "force" trades, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to buy long, here....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....but DO buy "some things" here, with close stops....also, it may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks are, right ? Near the highs March, and July, this list was smaller, yes ? See the pattern ? More "EVB"s" are logical and expected, ater recent mini-crash, yes ? Be sure to check the charts of the stocks you choose to view, the Key message being, to "see" how many ARE forming EVB's here.... also, remember, we do NOT "chase up" (obviously, there is a low chance of having to that right here and now, yes ?), only buy the ones you prefer, which are still near their lows, with stops....

note how much larger the Long-side lists have become, after the mini-crash: "industry groups": no great bases here, just some EVB's (but, again, Not if any of these make new lows here):
Semis/Comp./Techs (ADPT, CDI., LSI., NN)
Prec. Metals (GRERF, CCH, AZC, VGZ, RYO, SSC, DAY, CAU, all real cheapies).
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel) (add, KMT, BIR, NS, OS, to, LSS, PKX, IGL, HPC, COG, DE, BS, GR, LTV, LZ, BW, X., N.)
Energy/Services (add, MCN, PZL, to, PKD, ESV, FLC, PDE, BDI., RDC, BDG, UTI., TDW)(but it is too late for most of these, now, right ? and, we must see renewed rises here, breaking above recent V.S.T. highs on these, and/or pullbacks to buy into again)
Health (TOX, VTR, BEV, NVX)
Asian/Latin Amer./Foreign (add, TZA, ICA, PAP, to, KF, AWF, ROC, IIF, VNT)
and, Consumer/Retail/Apparel stuff, also soon ? (RAYS, ADM)(and, maybe soon, add, FINL, PBY, ROP, TLZ, HMY, IMC, USI.)
Banks/Insur./Finls. (BT, BEN, TIG, MCY, DLJ, LEH)
....we were the first/only, to have caught many depressed "land-based" stocks near recent lows here for you (Farm, Metals, Energy Svcs.), most Golds/Oil. Svcs. are already up, and also the first in Rairoads, Healths, Foreigns, and cheapie-Techs, here for you....and, now, the Steels ? spread the word....

*** oh, and, note, more some depressed Temp. Job (JOB), Telecom (PAGE, ALT), Apparel (SMI.), industry groups, are also close to forming L.T. late stage 7/early stage 1 bottoms ahead, so will keep my eye on those as well for you....and all this also says something about "the market" here, yes ?
and, "shoes" (JBAK, FLH, GCO, Z.), and "jails" (CCA, PZN), soon ? also, amazingly, Aero./Def., and, Papers, also improving....it's broadening out, a bit, isn't it....Last, note pops in "Biotechs" last week....on a pullback, some depresseds there, may shape up for us as well ?

And, as I have been saying from early June here, while some depresseds Are likely to set up again, mostly being EVB's, do NOT expect as large rises this time, as when I gave them out in the late '97/early '98 period (nor, from late '95 to early '96, when I also was first/only to do so near their lows then), because they do NOT have bases here, just some with good EVB's, as with the others....and, accepting some Q, small losses so far in some, w/close stops....

and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": PAGE, UFI., PAR, USF, BDT --- were taken Off.... These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....as I have been saying, it is continuing to be a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or had more Puts (but not now)....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first....

* These are still, current, or, Potential, "EVB's", as "BDG's" ("big down gaps", read that booklet):
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off lows), as "EVB's", diversified, w/close stops, added, TTILF, to, ALDA, TLZ, ACK, TWA, VTR, ADPT, MSN, TOX, SSC, CDI., AZC, BDI., and, the stocks listed above here, and in the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above....(note, some are double- bottoms, some have V.S.T. bases). Also, IMPORTANT note: some EVB stocks may, instead, form S.T. "W" double-bottom patterns down here....watch for that.... be patient....some just take a bit longer to form, as per my "BDG/EVB Booklet" examples....which is fine, since we are NOT doing "overnite" trades, right ? Also note, some EVB's have been improved, from "watching" list, to the actual "EVB" list, yes ? Obviously, given recent drops, added many new EVB's, as follows:

and also Watching --- note, added a bunch more, which, again, should tell you something about how many EVB's the are out here: added, AMLN, TRID, SIII, IDTI., HRBC, WCS, SME, ALN, PHV, CD, to, CREAF, RDRT, ISSI., CYI., WCS, ATV, NTN, ETN, EMN, BTC, BWC, COO, SMI., ALT, TOC, FJ, IV, PCMS, COT, IFMX, OLGC, LSS, STN, TIG, SPNSF, VNTV, ANET, GEMS, CLCX, GDC, FLH, FWC, IOM, IRF, LDW, TEK, WY, TER, CZM, DBD, MCY, TNL, BGO, UTI., AXC, LTV, GRERF, RAYS, VSNR, ILX, AND, FINL, SFY, GCO, RYO, GSR, AWF, MCL, TSA, ODETA, CAU, AZC, SAMC, DAY, PDE, RDC, IGL, DEN, BNYN, DANKY, VTR, BEV, CZN, CCH, IKN, DE, LZ, BS, NH, LB, MS, N., Z., X., as "EVB's", some here, but some Not just yet, as they need more work, technically....and/but, not any when/if they make new lows....again, some of these may/will, instead, form EVB "W" "double- bottom" patterns....also, I seem, again, to be the first/only, to give out some "previously-loved-at-their-tops" Golf stocks as also getting cheap, technically (ELY, ALDA, ASHW)....

*** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB or "base" technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each, to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Also, obviously, given recent drops, the "potential EVB list" is bound to grow, somewhat, yes ? Last, on some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or rise, dig ? Many stocks are being priced as if there is no tomorrow, some L.T. busted takeovers, some ridiculously high dividend yields if paid, some just beginning late stage 7/early stage 1 here. Plenty to take a shot at here, w/close stops ....DO buy long some things, and/but do NOT "never" buy Puts, either !

NEW SECTION: just FYI, these have had most/recent significantly above-average "insider activity" ("IA"), but, still, most all definitely occured before recent EVB's, and at higher prices than today's prices, dig ? They are Not necessarily Buys here, as I teach, unless they also form proper bases/EVB's, anyway: BSRTS, ESC, APA, ACK, BHI., ELY, EOG, ESV, CNC, IGL, NEM, PZL, RDC, SLB, BDG, COT, LFB, PDE, SEE, ROK, SPC, SMI., TNL, USI., ADM, IBP....just FYI.....as you can see, most are within our favored depressed Industry Groups....wish I had the time to finish my "IA, from a 'Psycle sm' p.o.v." booklet....I will try to do so soon....

7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?):
"Recent Puts Buys from Section (3)" above, plus:
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet) add, MEDI., to, ASDV, CTAS, NSIT, SEPR, PDCO, WHIT, AGC, ANF, IBM, EMC, WAT, WPI., RX, BAX, JCOR, VMC, BBY, SBL, DRTE, CLV, GLX, UMG, QTRN, DELL, SDG, CTL, BDX, FRX, and, again, the recently bought-puts-on stocks in section (3) above, the last few NL's, as Puttables, near their Highs, Only....obviously it is now too late to buy many Puts I previously gave you, back in July....some were "EVT's" ("Exhaustion V (hook) Tops", the opposite of EVB's, get it ?), some were double-tops....some, regular "umbrella tops".... makes this a little clearer for you, yes ? But, again, as of 9/1 lows, do Not "chase down" puttables which are already down a bunch, from their recent highs....we only want to buy our Puts, near their highs, with stops. Note, how the "potential puts list" has gotten a bit smaller, as more stocks have already fallen....but you probably noticed this....good.

As I have always said/taught: LEARN, that, as I have proven countless times over the years, normally, NO amount of "reported good or fundamental news" (other than a bonifide takeover offer), can prevent a stock in S.T. stage 4, 5, or 6, from falling/further....recent proof of this, lies in the declines, not only in Energies late 1997, but in Financials, Retails, and now, many others, which have fallen/are falling, in recent weeks/months --- into "higher earnings", dig ?

and/But, just Not yet, in: RESM, PAYX, MCK, SEIC, SGP, SUNW, YHOO, taken Off potential puts list, before "put"....remember, we do NOT buy puts, when/if that issue is still making new highs....yes, we will miss "some" right near their tops, but by waiting for double-tops and/or umbrella tops to form better, we will have fewer small cut losses, and we will still catch plenty of Puts over time, with less portfolio risk or stress....again, when/if an issue breaks out immediately after I add it, I remove it, period. You must please check the recent charts of All potential Puts ideas, which takes less than 10 seconds each, to make sure they have not broken out, before you get in.

again, The best Puttable Industry Groups Sectors, continue to be among extended Big-name, High-PE, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Internets, Consumer, Utility, Health....But, again, as of Sept. 1st, is a bit late for most. ...and, ONLY into a rally, ONLY near their highs, right ? Interesting, that my "puttable groups list" broadened, in July, before the recent declines, dig ? ....we will catch plenty more Puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?) (as with calls, and all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).

8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
Besides all the lessons you hopefully have gleaned, from all my past NL commentaries above, and from my (six) "essays/Booklets", and memorizing the specific characteristics of each, of the 7 (seven) sequential stages in my "PSYCLE sm", a while ago, and each NL forward for a while, wherein I covered each sequential "PSYCLE sm" stage, one by one. (this/that was very valuable information --- So, hopefully, now you know about all about stages 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, in my "PSYCLE sm", illustrated here for you....hope they helped), today's brief Lesson, is:

No lesson needed today either...I gave you a ton of stuff in Section (2) above, and you should be viewing charts of followed-up Long-siders recently, from Section (4) above, and just concentrate on the new Longs and Puts stocks and Industry Groups above....
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, similarly, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to never do any....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.

remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves.... this is a Good thing....Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action, like we had earlier in 1998, and, again, in August, with the Techs/Asians. The Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then (buy then ? a pun, get it ?), it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, have proven that yet again.

Last, this still is somewhat "semantics", and "stage labels" don't really matter that much here, since our expected holding period is still, 2-4 months, and we are not trying to catch longer-term, huge potential stage 3 rises....Initial Upside targets from stage 2 pullbacks (or pops up from stage 7 EVB's) are still, up around the still-falling 200 day MA's, and/or previously-broken-down-from price levels, right ? It is only important, that we recognize, and ACT to take advantage of, high-reliability patterns, like depr. bases, and/or EVB's, and/or double-bottoms, at times when "the 95 %" are most scared, near lows, with close stops, and no emotion, right ?

*** So, again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or put, stocks "Now", as long as their current prices are right near those given in Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....Section (3)....and, Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable/learnable lists, when/if those issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to your "Guide" to my NL, which was sent to you.

*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "liquid/illiquid" than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are truly "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) when/if those issues also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)