1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....which will tell you something about "the market" overall, yes ? Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3) each NL. Note, I am putting more "learning/feeling' items in NL's when pertinent/helpful to YOU.
Remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those stocks remain aok....many EVB's may also form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6) below....do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate any "most recent past" performance forward forever, PSY-chologically", ever, because you will likely miss the next bunch of Gainers, dig ? Just because the "last few" may not have worked, does NOT mean "the next few" will not....in historical FACT, the vast makority of "PSYCLE sm" iodeas HAVE indeed worked....it is one's "psyche expectations" which are sometimes too anxious, too S.T.
So, "pick your potion(s)," FIRST, from Section (3) ---then from sections (6)
and (7), long and/or Put/short side, for cash, or on margin, or only L.T., in-the-
money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you have
never done "Puts", the March to Sept. period has been the time to Learn how to do so, using my "booklet" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. tops occur, which may next exist after the rallies after this past decline....
3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, mentioning, and still remaining long, unless otherwise noted):
6) Other, still-Depressed, Long Buys,
near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always
Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts
Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential
drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down
appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?):
8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
*** INITIAL NOTES: Once again, we still have a "Split" market (but leaning towards depressed longs a bit more) with some extended/names/high-priced/ overpriced stocks topping/falling, while many depresseds are forming EVB's or bases, and actually popping....So, am awaiting better tops in extendeds to buy Puts into, while awaiting further breakouts, and/or pullbacks to buy long after, in many depresseds....but we are NOT emoting about it....we are just going to let "the action itself" tell us, which way to go, right ? Interesting, Crude and heating Oil cash futures themselves, have still been rising as predicted, yet most Energy "stocks" pulled back, yes ? And, note pops in Steels, I am first/only to give out/catch for you herein, is occuring WHILE they Lose more $ financially, on their products, dig ? Again, there is NO "automatic/clear link" between "fundamentals" and "technicals", between "corporate stuff" and "stocks" movements, all the time, right ? ....re-read my booklet on "Scenarios/linkages".
a) Important Industry Group comments: well, it would seem I was, again, the first/only to catch the bottom in another I.G., besides, Steels, Oil Service, Golds, Healths: the "Golf" stocks, here for you. Also, note I seem to be the first/only guy to, again, be adding extended Drugs (and maybe Utilities ?) as Puttables....last, I am finding some depressed Biotechs, Shoes, Apparels, as potential longs on pullbacks, as I promised....will let you know....see Section (6) below....and, more depressed Golds bouncing, though, notice how NEM stopped, right at its 200 DMA ....see it ? and, our Oil Services may be forming better, intermediate-term saucers here, yes ? view their charts....
"PSYCLE sm" note: I hope you are reading compnay/industry articles in YOUR "local" area papers, and learning how to judge/time stocks "the Psycle Way", by, often, going opposite (and/or late) reported stories....or, at least, seeing where, in the Psycle, "certain kinds of stories" are most often disseminated.... this is something no one else in the world teaches but me, in my 2 Booklets on "How (not) to use Media messages", and "Scenarios/Linkages"
b) WSJ, 9/24, article, "European Stocks Rally on Evidence that Profit Picture Is Not as Bleak as Feared...." As usual, in late stage 7/early stage 1, the worst fears are hardly ever fulfilled, right ? (so what else is new)....Swiss, German, Brtiish non-bank indexes forming potential EVB's....and, WSJ chart of Hong Kong stock index, shows decent "PSYCLE sm" saucer base, still, as their "stocks" hold Up, "into" bad/worse news/financials, yes ? stage 1 also ?
c) More "R.E. tops" evidence: WSJ, 9/25, article, "Sellers of Luxury Houses Feel the Pinch as Buyers Fret Over the Economy": chronicled many waelthy sellers unable to get their asking prices on property A, which they had hoped to sell, in order to buy property B at a higher price....In other words, normal "stage 4 greed and unrealistic expectations forever", and, that, according to this article, many home prices surrouinding N.Y.C. are down 8.7 % just in the last month....and (quote) "So. Calif. is cooling off, too; she senses a bit of a slowdown looming." gee, who was first to call the tops ? Yup. Oh, I hope to re-apopear on KWHY-tv L.A. again, Oct. 7, at 1:00 pm, pst....Rest assured, I will answer the interviewer who tried to incorrectly chastise me for calling a R.E. top in So. Calif. on my previous appearance, 7/31....oh, and, while certainly not as financially important as R.E., finally, 9/25, WSJ had a front-page-center article, "Bear Market ? Some Worry that Beanie Babies are Ripe for a Fall"....cool...who was first calling that top ? Yup.
d) more improper specific stocks comments: 1) Alan Chernov (again) CNBC, 9/24, 11:25, "Gap Stores is falling apart" at 54., and, "TJX is simply a disaster".... Besides overemoting again, his "words" are wrong, again, and, as usual, the Media is Late, in getting bearish on these two, which I specifically gave you herein as Puts (along with other "extended Retail stocks") right near their highs, yes ? Please view their charts to learn/see the normal "PSYCLE sm" topping pattern.... GPS at 54, is UP, from 46. recent low, and 33. late 1997, while TJX, down from 28., to 17., is a bad one, but not a "disaster", and is still UP from its 13. low Oct. '97, and 9., earlier in '97.... 2) Lehman, recommends "steels" (guess they read my NL, glad to have helped them) adding NUE, OS, BS....a bit late, of course, but I give them kudos for being the first Major firm to even desire this I.G.
3) Pru-Bache initiates Buy on FJ, at 33-, a week late, after I recently gave FJ to you herein, below 27., but it is good to be validated yet again.... 4) 9/25, CNBC, 11 am, makes NEM their "special of the day", a good S.T. contrary "PSYCLE sm" "SELL on strength" signal, at 25+, Friday, up from 13., where I specifically gave NEM to you herein, recently, yes ? ....5) CNBC, 9/24, reporting brokerage stocks "really getting hit", failed to point out, that the stocks they mentioned were NOT making new lows any more, but were just pulling back from oversold bounces, and actually show potential S.T. support here....they were "really getting hit" weeks ago, from much migher levels, yet the Media did NOT report that fact, back then, right ? ....6) Jefferies & Co. lowers IMP stock, to "hold", from "accumulate", at $ 13+....hmmmm, where were they at $ 30+, when we gave out Puts on IMP herein ? and, note, as I teach, brokerage firms hardly ever come out with outright "sell" signals, do they....so, thanks for nothing, guys....
7) article, L.A. Times, 9/26, about Premier Laser Cp., showing chart of stock, as it first rose, into optimism, then fell big-time, recently....of interest, on Feb. 13, 1998, at 11. (up from its $ 3. low. in 1997), they reported their "first" quarterly profit, with local bullish articles and recommendations from local brokerage firms (get it ? stage 4)....of course, that was it....and the stock fell steadily thereafter, to near $ 4. quickly.....The first "bad" news announced, was not until the stock had already fallen, from 11 1/2, to below 7., in April (get it ? stage 6).....and, then, stock was suspended from trading in May 1998.
e) WSJ advert, 9/24, for a Govt. Bond M. Fund, headline, "What if Rates Fall to 4 % ?", may be nice "PSYCLE sm" contrary "late wish" stage 4 top signal soon, for Bonds ? we shall see....often, such ads/headlines, late in a cycle, are of decent portent....get it ?
f) Thu. 9/24, Harvard Univ. announced they lost a ton of $$$ in their endowment's investment account (something like $ -1.3 Billion) just since July 1, 1998, out of about $ 13-14. Billion....wow....More proof that, contrary to what "the 95 %" incorrectly (mis)believe/hope, just because an institution or person has "class" or "history" or "intelligence" or "appearance", does not automatically lead to "no risk" nor "higher than average returns forever", something I teach in my Mastering Psy-chology booklet....Note, they have been using "leverage" like a hedge fund, for a while....they blamed "irrational markets", and are not selling anything down here....stay tuned....Mind you this is not a blanket criticism, just trying to show you more proof about many of the assumptions which "the 95 %" make, which are not based on historical fact as much as assumed.
g) WSJ, 9/21, Heard on the Street: actually had some salient "PSYCLE-like" comments: "the avg. stk. wouldn't be down 40 % if the market really thought a
19 % growth rate was realistic...", and, "expectations of bad times already are IN a lot of (deporessed) stocks...", and, "analysts still haven't taken off their rose-colored glasses, meaning investors still are in for some shocks...", and, "investors still haven't pushed highflying stocks down as far as they need to go." , and, "the fall in earnings expectations has been startling...the steepest decline for estimates since 1992...", and, "the 3rd Q will be the first negative quarter since the 3rd Q of 1991...", and, last, "bullish analysts say the numbers are too gloomy" (get it ?)....Conclusion: with "preannouncements," and conflicting opinions, as usual, the masses remain confused....Concentrate instead, on the CHART patterns of individual stocks and I.G.'s, FIRST, add stops, and let the fundamentalists confuse "the 95 %", not us.
h) WSJ, 9/18, "High Yield Bonds Decline Along With Stocks": since 7/17/98, Lipper's H.Y. bond index, down -9 %, while their Govt. bond index up + 3.1 %.... And, as I have been saying, one CANNOT automatically "link" "all" bonds, with 'all stocks'....I.E., while lower-yield/govt. bonds have RISEN, "junk/H.Y." bonds, have FALLEN, in price. Without boring you with the vaguaries of their fundamental differences in today's financial society, the "risk premium/difference in yields, between high-and-low-quality bonds had gotten to narrow, i.e., Junk did not reward holders enough more, to warrant their being held, so they fell in price, raising their yields to a more "normal" differential, over that of Govt. bonds, dig ? Just another learnable example of the "industry group rotation", which occurs among ALL segments of all markets.
i) read a shockingly correct Media assesment of James Grant, and David Tice's, seemingly continually gloomy-bearishness-for-years-now, stances, in an L.A. Times article, 9/18, by Tom Petruno, a real good financial writer, and a surprisingly insightful guy in his observations, which is very rare for anyone in the Media.... Grant and Tice have been predicting worse/bad things economically/market-wise, for years now, and, now, predict "reflation", as IR's to fall lower, and, in their opinions, commodity prices to bottom and rise....But Grant, writer of a book, "The Trouble with Prosperity" (huh ?), had been prdicting higher IR's for years, yet/as IR's fell, and a worsening U.S. economy, yet/as many stocks rose....and Tice's Mutual Fund is also down -22 % in 1998, and has underperformed for a while now, so why listen to/print either one of these guys' opinions ? Last, they both assume that the U.S. will "join" the "troubled foreign countries" to the downside from here--- but they do not acknowledge the possibility that the "troubled foreign countries" might actually right themselves from their depressed lows, and rejoin "us", dig ? We shall see....Even a broken clock is right twice a day....The reason I mention them here, is to show you, again, how many of the "most famous/ known/most exposed" prognosticators, have been woefully not correct, for years, in some cases, in fact....yet, they, somehow, have the Media's ear, dig ? And, of course, "the 95 %" are often damaged, trying to follow their advice, especially since the Media NEVER tells each person's actual L.T. track record, IN the tons of articles they hurt the masses by publishing....continuing caveat emptor, except, of course, where the "PSYCLE sm" is concerned.
j) Am I the only person who, in recent years, with all the disaster-type natural events around, that "the Media" seems more intent on sensationalizing more reports, and seems actually giddy at the prospect of being able to report damages and deaths ? Didn't think so. They actually often seem disappointed when their over-zealous-reporting and seeming "hope" for terrible things to actually occur (so they can report them, and possibly get higher ratings, but don't get me started), do not meet with their "high level of predicted/hoped-for terribleness", right ? Just as with all things Financial/Investment-wise, the Media misleads and exagerates for effect, not so much to enlighten nor inform nor teach....but, you already knew that.
j) And, I hope I am not the first to tell you, but my own, literal follow-ups of many stocks suggested, in Money, Worth, and Ticker magazines, as long buys, or sales/shorts, over the past several months, has, again, shown amazingly terrible performance by the people whose opinions/predictions/ideas they publish....I mean real bad....I mean, shockingly opposite what actually transpired after their suggestions....I mean, off by 50-100 % on over 2/3 of the stocks recommended, in just a very short time after the date published....of course, EVERY single prediction given by all prognosticators, was of primarily a "fundamental" bent---- NONE, had even the slightest technical patterns....all came from a plethora of "famous" M.F. mgrs. and Newsletter writers....and, NONE of the articles, suggestions, or recommendations, ever came with a "keep close stops" suggestion. Last, also, from recent "Property" magazine issue, was 8 long, full pages of "fundamental" number/details, of hundreds of REIT's, R.E. stocks, etc., ratios, financials, past returns, etc. --- but not one single price CHART....get it ?
What a shame/waste.
so, I gave you over 90+ (wow) Quick, Large % Puts Gains, specifically, from July tops, here (with just a few VQ, VS puts losses just recently), plus a whole bunch more puttables, which "we" just missed herein, but "you" could still have caught, big-time, from July tops, into the 9/1, V.S.T. lows....I hope you had at least "some" of my successful Puts recently. Please View their charts to learn the patterns. You have had plenty of opportunity to catch tons of them right near prices suggested herein, many, over a period of days or weeks....Obviously, also had some Q,S losses in Long-siders here, and, now, a bunch of Long-side risers given you, again....back and forth, right ? A proper portfolio should have had a few Q, small cut losses long-side, AND also at least a few big % Gains in some Puts, lately....And, new Long buys again last week....See section (5) below for more details on recent-past Puts, from which to learn.... And, many depressed longs which broke their support a little recently, may well bounce back up towards where they broke down below, anyway, S.T., allowing another opportunity to get out of those, to cut losses, as taught in my Booklets.
note: As I said herein, some of our "depressed longs" might continue to have the "rally back up to where they broke down from", and/or form double-bottom "W" formations ahead, vs. recently formed EVB's, which, when/if they occur, I will let you know, as usual....but, as always, (further) breakdowns below most recent lows/ support, are not argued with. Again, you can always also go back and view the 1-year-past charts, of the many previously "Hypothetically completed" successful PUTS trades from previous NL's, to "see/learn" more, and this also illustrates why one must Diversify, buying at least a Few suggested ideas, and at least "some" Puts, at amost All times, right ? We are in this for the long haul....my approach keeps you in the game, for when those big Gainers occur for us....we want to "just get close(r)", with no emotion, and more confidence.
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential rises: (note, more/new names here):
GSR @ 1 3/16, AMSWA @ 2 1/2, SAMC @ 5 29/32, SIII. @ 2 15/16, MCY @ 38-, DEX @ 24+, DTG @ 10+, TER @ 18+, TEK @ 16-, SRR @ 8+, SSC @ 11/16, CDI. @ 23+, CCH @ 9/32, BDG @ 30+, STN @ 5+, VSNR @ 3/4, SPCT @ 12+, RAYS @ 5 9/16, BIR @ 6 11/16, NS @ 6 7/16, AND @ 5 5/8, SFO @ 5 15/16, TDW @ 22+, KMT @ 26+, ROP @ 16++, EMN @ 49+, RDC @ 11 1/2, PHV @ 7/8, TPS @ 13/16, KF @ 5 5/8, ATV @ 1 13/16, NS @ 6 3/8, Z. @ 9 5/8, ALN @ 7, PAP @ 5, VGZ @ 1/8....most are EVB's, but added more "higher-priceds" as well, dig ? note, still more Long buys here....there is still something for everyone here...."buy low", right ? Note, we are revisiting some "previously given/traded" issues....and/but some New ones.
LEARN THIS: when, in the past, I had been seeing fewer "quality" higher-priced stocks as depressed buy patterns, that should have told you something about "the market", back in June....but we have been adding more longs, After the recent mini-crash, dig ? This just makes sense....Please try NOT to read, nor "emote", about news stories about worldwide financial/economic/ political events....
** Important: took, FEET, CCA --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows....also recall the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, and some $ 5-10. stocks, and some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.
Important: unless issues are listed specifically above, here in Section (3)
in a NL, they may NOT be buys right here....remember, a valuable part of the
"process", is that we have "actionable right near here now" stocks (Section (3)),
and also, "watching for hopefully becoming ready to buy near lows in their
depressed patterns soon" stocks (section (6))....Section (3) is for Now -- Section
(6) and (7) are for soon/later and learning....be sure to read the "Guide", the "BDG/EVB essay" and the "Downside" booklet (and all 6 booklets) offered....very inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for learning timing/patterns....I try to make this easy for you. But, always start, with Section (3), here, first.
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS", for potential Drops:
MEDQ @ 31, IDXX @ 24+, SGP @ 105+, SDG @ 91, GLX @ 61++, ELNK @ 45-, CEN @ 60+, JNJ @ 79+, NSIT @ 351, AGC @ 69+, CVS @ 47-, BAX @ 60+, TWX @ 93+, WAG @ 48, WAT @ 67-, CLV @ 22+, BDX @ 41+, AEH @ 33, PE @ 34+....again, at this stage, we only buy Puts on extended potentially toppy issues which have Not Yet fallen, only near their highs, right ? note, added extended Drugs, and Utilities ?
Important "PSYCLE sm" technical note: Because of how extendeds have become since March, and july, tops, I am going to give some Puttables which have "minor new highs", and/or "minor breakouts above patterns" some benefit of the doubt, here, hanging in a bit longer then normally would, taking slightly more risk.... of course, always diversifying, ONLY in L.T., in-the-money options anyway, to further lower risk....
as with the Long side, some are new Puttables, some are repeats....obviously, given recent declines, its a bit "late" to "begin buying most puts blindly here", therefore fewer Puttables, right ? And/but, took, ASDV , off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested stock will break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed double-bottom/EVB/base pattern....So I am assuming, you actually have Viewed it's recent chart, BEFORE you consider buying any/those issues as Longs or Puts, and you will see/know this, and therefore NOT buy that particular stock....this takes just 10 seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns.
....and/but, we just Missed, EXBT, GLW, VST, IMP, MDM, HAL, RLM, GR, NA, as Longs given you here near very recent "EVB" lows, and, XIRC, MRK, EK, as Puts near recent highs, among stocks recently given you herein (also view last lists given you here).
Important: while I have given you a ton of successful Puts, note how many more big-name, higher-priced stocks have formed double-tops-with-lower-second-tops, not even giving us the chance to get into their puts....as I have been saying here, this was NOT a good sign for "the market", from March, and from July, dig ? I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" and LEARN the patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing the charts of the puts/longs here which we just "missed", also tells us, whether the market is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? So this also helps us know the nature of the market at any given time....that's why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for the future.
As I said, it may still continue semi-rough for a while yet, in some
long-side issues....Again, while the Media "worries" about "earnings" impacts of
various crises, the STOCKS of the companies involved will likely Bottom, and
rise, even as "lower financials" are announced, into fear, once they bottom,
right ? And, as we have already seen, twice, since March, stocks of "growing
fast" companies, will still FALL, at times, when they form "PSYCLE sm" tops, even
as higher "earnings" are announced....So, we'll also be watching for this ahead. And, a few, small, cut losses along the way, will not hurt us much, regardless. By buying "some "PSYCLE sm" long-side stocks" down here, with close stops, we should make some money regardless, soon, again, yes ?
also, see, NEM 25 1/4 (S), JBL 39 (S), PETM 8, and DBD 24+ (sorry about that one), higher anew....Given recent action, that my concept has still given out/caught many stocks which are UP into this not-so-great period, recently, is satisfying ....I certainly hope you always properly Cut quick small losers properly.... remember, after mini-crashes, often, the first reflex-dead-cat bounces do not necessarily hold, but many DO, and many form "W" bottoms, so we ACT to take advantage, regardless.
and/but, then, AFCI. 8 up 1, ATW 21 1/2 up 1 1/2, ODETA, IDTI., CDI., SPCT, ADPT, ATML, VOX, IOM, MRVC, COT, OEA, AHG, PDE, VRC, IKN, GCO, PZL, MCN, NN, BT, pb (pulling back)....again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed stocks", even in qualified plans/pensions accounts, with stops, diversified.... Again, you must buy at least FEW, always diversifying, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" That is Impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 12, long-siders, and also 5 to 12, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of instant/S.T. gratification.
*** important: obviously, the whole key from here, long-side, is for many of our EVB's, to breakout, further, again, above this week's S.T. "highs" ! and, many stocks are approaching their "previously-broken-down-from price levels, here, right ? So, many "must stregthen further" or become "sales on strength" (sos), we'll be watching for that.
note: ("sos") means "Sell
On Strength" (on a bounce up towards where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)
and/or are sales on strength
("sos") to/towards resistance:
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):
(Important Note: "(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support"....("S") means sell/sold the long Puts right near here, or as in section (3) above)....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" puts as trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.... you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables which are declining, past and present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices.
also, please be sure to view charts of, BYL, CLX, XYLN, APOL, CBTSY, VTSS, EL, BCE, TRB, SZA, DASTY, JAII., USTR, OSSI., BRK.B, AMCC, MEG.A, POS, CKR, TEF, SPLN, VOD, TBL, CSG, TRB, LXK, BNI., ICN, AWA, SHW, BCF, HOT, MTX, IMP, KRI., ANF, plus the long, long recent past list of dozens of Puttable stocks I gave you in Section (5) here near their tops, which fell even further, recently, as originally predicted here for you....please see their charts to learn the "toppy" patterns further....
I had given you a ton of Puts winners, from March, and July, so far, yes ? remember, stocks often fall in 2 or 3 stages, even S.T., at least towards their 200 DMA....that's another reason why we ONLY buy L.T., in-the-money options, always diversified, where suitable....some people say it has been quite Valuable, that my "PSYCLE sm" has found so many winning puts, in this supposed "bull" market (which, as I said, may have ended in March/April ?), which I do appreciate....hey, most other NL's and analysts and people never ever buy Puts at all !!! Yet too many people continue to listen to, and/or buy their output, when they could have ours.
* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must
weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): MTC, HHS, BBY, SDG, CTL, JNJ, SGP, ATI., CLV, GLX, BAX....
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn from.
note how much larger the Long-side lists have become, after the mini-crash:
"industry groups": no great bases here, just some EVB's (but, again, Not if any of these make new lows here):
Semis/Comp./Techs (ADPT, CDI., LSI., NN)
Prec. Metals (GRERF, CCH, AZC, VGZ, RYO, SSC, DAY, CAU, all real cheapies)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel) (KMT, BIR, NS, PKX, IGL, HPC, COG, DE, EMN, BS, LTV, LZ, DEX, IST)
Energy/Services (BHI., MCN, PZL, PKD, ESV, FLC, PDE, BDI., RDC, BDG, UTI., TDW, HAL, near lows only) and, we must see renewed rises here, breaking above recent V.S.T. highs on these, and/or pullbacks to buy into again)
Health (add, IMGN, to, TOX, VTR, BEV)
Asian/Latin Amer./Foreign (TZA, ICA, PAP, to, KF, AWF, ROC)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel (RAYS, ADM, FINL, PBY, TLZ, HMY, USI., PIR, DTG)
Banks/Insur./Finls. (TIG, MCY, DLJ, TRV, IMP, TMA)
....we were the first/only, to have caught many depressed "land-based" stocks near recent lows here for you (Farm, Metals, Steel, Energy Svcs.), most Golds/Oil. Svcs. are already up, and also the first in Rairoads, Healths, Foreigns, Golf, and cheapie-Techs, here for you....spread the word....
*** oh, and, note, more some depressed Temp. Job (JOB), Telecom (PAGE, ALT), Apparel (SMI.), industry groups, are also close to forming L.T. late stage 7/early stage 1 bottoms ahead, so will keep my eye on those as well for you....and all this also says something about "the market" here, yes ?
and, "shoes" (add, SRR, to, JBAK, FLH, GCO, Z.), soon ? also, amazingly, Aero./Def., and, Papers (PAP), also improving....it's broadening out, a bit, isn't it....Last, note pops in "Biotechs"....on a pullback, some depresseds there, may shape up for us as well ?
And, as I have been saying from early June here, while some depresseds Are likely to set up again, mostly being EVB's, do NOT expect as large rises this time, as when I gave them out in the late '97/early '98 period (nor, from late '95 to early '96, when I also was first/only to do so near their lows then), because they do NOT have bases here, just some with good EVB's, as with the others....and, accepting some Q, small losses so far in some, w/close stops....
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they
might have been Hypothetically "bt.": FEET, CCA --- were taken Off.... These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....as I have been saying, it is continuing to be a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or had more Puts (but not now)....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first....
and also Watching --- note, added a bunch more, which, again, should tell you something about how many EVB's the are out here: added, QSII., IMGN, PIR, UPX, BC, IRF, JPM, NB, ATV, SMTK, LRCX, NWAC, AMMB, IST, HXL, FLS, IMP, OC, DTG, DEX, KCS, HLT, LYO, to, AMLN, TRID, SIII, IDTI., HRBC, WCS, SME, ALN, PHV, CD, CREAF, RDRT, ISSI., TTILF, CYI., WCS, ATV, NTN, BTC, SMI., TOC, HAL, PCMS, COT, IFMX, OLGC, LSS, STN, TIG, SPNSF, VNTV, ANET, GEMS, CLCX, GDC, FLH, FWC, IOM, IRF, LDW, TEK, BDG, BDI., TER, CZM, MCY, TNL, BGO, ELY, UTI., AXC, LTV, GRERF, RAYS, VSNR, ILX, AND, FINL, RYO, GSR, AWF, MCL, TSA, ODETA, CAU, AZC, SAMC, DAY, PDE, RDC, IGL, DEN, DANKY, VTR, BEV, CZN, CCH, HPC, IKN, DE, DLJ, EMN, NS, LZ, MS, Z., as "EVB's", some here, but some Not just yet, as they need more work, technically.... and/but, not any when/if they make new lows....again, some of these may/will, instead, form EVB "W" "double- bottom" patterns....also, I seem, again, to be the first/only, to give out some "previously-loved-at-their-tops" Golf stocks as also getting cheap, technically (ELY, ALDA, ASHW)....note, I removed a bunch which have bounced already....
*** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB or "base" technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each, to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Also, obviously, given recent drops, the "potential EVB list" is bound to grow, somewhat, yes ? Last, on some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or rise, dig ? Many stocks are being priced as if there is no tomorrow, some L.T. busted takeovers, some ridiculously high dividend yields if paid, some just beginning late stage 7/early stage 1 here. Plenty to take a shot at here, w/close stops ....DO buy long some things, and/but do NOT "never" buy Puts, either !
NEW SECTION: just FYI, these have had most/recent significantly above-average "insider activity" ("IA") (we're talking min. 4-5-6 min. insider buys, with NO sales), but, still, most all definitely occured before recent EVB's, and at higher prices than today's prices, dig ? They are Not necessarily Buys here, as I teach, unless they also form proper bases/EVB's, anyway: BSRTS, ESC, APA, ACK, BHI., ELY, EOG, ESV, CNC, IGL, NEM, PZL, RDC, SLB, BDG, COT, LFB, PDE, SEE, ROK, SPC, SMI., TNL, USI., ADM, IBP, GAP, FLS, OV, PA....there are many more with "just" 3-4 buys in a "PSYCLE sm cluster", just FYI, to give you an idea why I have added so many more EVB's lately.....as you can see, most are within our favored depressed Industry Groups....wish I had the time to finish my "IA, from a 'Psycle sm' p.o.v." booklet....I will try to do so soon....
As I have always said/taught: LEARN, that, as I have proven countless times over the years, normally, NO amount of "reported good or fundamental news" (other than a bonifide takeover offer), can prevent a stock in S.T. stage 4, 5, or 6, from falling/further....recent proof of this, lies in the declines, not only in Energies late 1997, but in Financials, Retails, and now, many others, which have fallen/are falling, in recent weeks/months --- into "higher earnings", dig ?
and/But, just Not yet, in: QTRN, taken Off potential puts list, before "put"....remember, we do NOT buy puts, when/if that issue is still making new highs....yes, we will miss "some" right near their tops, but by waiting for double-tops and/or umbrella tops to form better, we will have fewer small cut losses, and we will still catch plenty of Puts over time, with less portfolio risk or stress....again, when/if an issue breaks out immediately after I add it, I remove it, period. You must please check the recent charts of All potential Puts ideas, which takes less than 10 seconds each, to make sure they have not broken out, before you get in.
again, The best Puttable Industry Groups Sectors, continue to be among
extended Big-name, High-PE, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Internets,
Consumer, Utilities, Health....But, again, as of Sept. 1st, is a bit late for most. ...and, ONLY into a rally, ONLY near their highs, right ? Interesting, that my "puttable groups list" broadened, in July, before the recent declines, dig ? and, now, adding new Utilities as tops ??? ....we will catch plenty more Puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?) (as with calls, and all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).
Besides all the lessons you hopefully have gleaned, from all my past NL
commentaries above, and from my (six) "essays/Booklets", and memorizing the specific characteristics of each, of the 7 (seven) sequential stages in my "PSYCLE sm", a while ago, and each NL forward for a while, wherein I covered each sequential "PSYCLE sm" stage, one by one. (this/that was very valuable information --- So, hopefully, now you know about all about stages 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, in my "PSYCLE sm", illustrated here for you....hope they helped), today's brief Lesson, is:
No lesson needed today either...I gave you a ton of stuff in Section (2) above, and you should be viewing charts of followed-up Long-siders recently, from Section (4) above, and just concentrate on the new Longs and Puts stocks and Industry Groups above....
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, similarly, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to never do any....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.
remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves.... this is a Good thing....Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action, like we had earlier in 1998, and, again, in August, with the Techs/Asians. The Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then (buy then ? a pun, get it ?), it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, have proven that yet again.
Last, this still is somewhat "semantics", and "stage labels" don't really matter that much here, since our expected holding period is still, 2-4 months, and we are not trying to catch longer-term, huge potential stage 3 rises....Initial Upside targets from stage 2 pullbacks (or pops up from stage 7 EVB's) are still, up around the still-falling 200 day MA's, and/or previously-broken-down-from price levels, right ? It is only important, that we recognize, and ACT to take advantage of, high-reliability patterns, like depr. bases, and/or EVB's, and/or double-bottoms, at times when "the 95 %" are most scared, near lows, with close stops, and no emotion, right ?
*** So, again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or
put, stocks "Now", as long as their current prices are right near those given in
Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....Section (3)....and,
Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable/learnable lists, when/if those
issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to
your "Guide" to my NL, which was sent to you.
*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you
a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be
done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "liquid/illiquid" than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my
valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for
various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people
would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly,
right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more
quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE
sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are truly "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) when/if those issues also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)